Transcription
Morning Folks! Happy New Year. It is January 1st, 2023, and on the first day of 2023 mentorship, first things first, a little bit of housekeeping. If you're new, or if you're just beginning under my wing as a student of Smart Money Concepts, this is my YouTube channel. And one of the questions that keeps coming up all the time by new subscribers or casual viewers is, "Where do I begin?" There's a lot of videos here, so let's take a look at what my opinion is.
Big over to the playlist button here. Scrub over. If you are a Forex trader, or a Forex trader in the making, and this is where you want to start. Okay, the Market Maker Primer Course, Market Maker Series, and Pattern Recognition Series. Okay? After you complete that, go with Geometry High Probability Scalping, and then go through Scout Sniper Basic Field Guide, and then start the core content lessons here. This is the month one, month two, three, four, five, six, seven. So one until you get to the last one.
If you are wanting to go into the meat of everything that I'm gonna be focusing on this year, which is primarily index futures trading, I will be doing commentary every day, Monday through Friday, or the equivalent thereof, barring personal schedule conflicts or holidays. For Forex, I'll be covering the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, the British Pound, and I will be covering the index futures ES and NQ. So every day I'll have my opinion shared as far as what I think on a macro view. Daily chart bias will be shared with you from my perspective, and then obviously, all of my engagements intraday will be on the index futures. So I'll be teaching with two live streams per week, going over real-time price feed. So that way you can study real-time price delivery and algorithmically. And it is not a signal service. You will not see me press a button. I'm not going to do any kind of trading in front of you, but I will be calling the market live, only on a five-minute basis, that we can see there's a high degree of precision. Things that are algorithmic are in price delivery. You'll see this repeating. And why only two times a week? Because it's going to be up to a two-hour session. So if I'm doing two of them, it's basically four hours of crunch time that you're going to go through. And the entire video will be uploaded for those individuals that can't be here live when it happens. Okay? So it's going to be a full plate of ICT goodness through 2023.
The second part is, you're going to want to subscribe. I know some of you don't want to be on Twitter, but it's going to be a backup system for me. So while YouTube will have its live stream two times a week, that will be a varying schedule. It'll be based on the economic calendar, and you'll see what I mean when we get into February. This is my official Twitter account. If you go to the YouTube channel, upper right-hand corner, it says "Official ICT Twitter." Click on that, it'll open up to my profile. Notice the pinned tweet here from October 5th, 2022, at 7:49 AM. This is how you know it's the right account. Everything here, it should be self-explanatory. Okay? I'm not going to invite you into a Telegram channel. I'm not going to invite you into an Instagram channel. I'm not going to invite you to Discord. I don't use it. I will never DM you ever, and you can't DM me. Everything you're going to be learning this year is free. I'm not doing an upsell. There is no future mentorship. I don't have anything else in the works except for four books. One is a fiction, and three are going to be educational. So that's the only thing you're going to get in the future with a price tag on it, and you don't even have to buy that. But it's kind of like my last soiree and, uh, in paid mentoring, I guess, education. It's like my bullet point and final tack on the wall saying, "This is it, you know, good luck and enjoy it."
We'll come back to this Twitter in a second. Now, if you go over to the videos, I just uploaded two of them yesterday. I did the real quick rendition of my PM session trade on ES, well, Friday, last trading day of the year. And it's usually a very short vignette. I speed up the whole entire process of what I did, and most of you like that because it's real short and to the point. Sometimes I add music, sometimes I don't, and I annotate the video entirely. Well, I got lots of requests for, "Can you show the real time without any of the speeding up?" So that's what this is here. And I have it set on playback 0.25 to show you that I had questions from folks that were saying, you know, "Is this really live, or was it recorded after effect?" And I want you to see the last frame as I close TradingView. You'll see the system time matches the, the time of real-time made data. Look in the lower right-hand corner. If you watch the lower right-hand corner, you'll see that the time on my computer matches the real-time data time, just as I close TradingView. It's only their area. So let me go down to the default, and you can see it's 4:02 on December 30th. Okay? So, and you can obviously look at that on your own. So everything here was done live with real-time data through TradingView.
If we go to profile on YouTube again, you go to the "Final Trade of 2022 in Real Time TradingView Platform" video. Click on that. Go down into the video description. You'll see a link that takes me, or takes you rather, the viewer, into a thread that was started and shared on Friday in the morning. So you can see the time, 7:41 AM is New York time, December 30th, 2022. I'm telling you right, I made a mistake. I said this is the, uh, the contract month, and then I correct, yeah, right here at 7:42 AM, and I walk everybody through the charts. Okay? So here's your daily chart, four-hour chart, including the Thursday high and the low, and the ranges thereof. And I go through, I don't want to steal the thunder from it all for you to go through yourself, but I actually walk through everything in the morning beforehand, what levels I'm looking for. And you'll notice right here, okay, let me scroll down real quick. Okay, at 8:20 AM, there is your buy side liquidity. Okay, all the levels down here, the market's going to draw into. But this is where I'm going to take your attention to later on, and you'll see what I mean by that by watching the video again and going through all the annotations here. Okay?
So once you have that, you're going to want to subscribe to my Twitter. Usually, I'm very busy on Twitter. I tweeted a lot in the past. Um, I'm gonna be only using this in 2023 going forward as, like, an alert to get your attention to, "Hey, look at this," you know, to prompt you in the event it's not a live session. Now, on the days of the live session, obviously, I wouldn't be doing any tweets. I'm not going to be doing any more Twitter Spaces where I do, like, it's kind of like a podcast. They're not going to be going on anymore. Okay? So, uh, you got the last one yesterday. So you want to have the notifications on for Twitter, so that way anytime I'm alerting the subscribers to this channel on Twitter, it will be salient to real market event or something that may be a schedule change. Okay? Maybe I'll have something scheduled for YouTube for a live session. If something changes in my personal life, something comes up, an emergency, anything happens, you're going to get a tweet directly from me, and it'll be informing you as to what it is needed to be done for you as the subscriber and viewer and student. You don't have to subscribe, but just don't complain that you don't know when I'm doing something because it's all going to be alerted through this account here. Okay?
So now let's go over to the chart. Okay? And I want you to see this is what the chart looks like when you open TradingView, and this is what I'm working with. Now, when I want to maximize everything, [Music] I click on this, which brings up my toolbar down here, and then I maximize there. Okay? So that's how the chart looks when I'm doing my recordings. So that way, if I have to grab something down here from the favorite list of things I like to work with, as you see, it's, it's not a lot of things. It'll allow me to go through and add all the annotations. Now, real quick, you'll see all that stuff that was in the recordings and in the pre-markup, they're all there. Okay? That's what the chart looks like after the fact. Okay? So we talked about how the market would likely be an inside day on Friday. This was Thursday's trading, and here's Friday. The reason why I kind of suspected it would be like that, and I tweeted it beforehand, the idea is that it was the last trading day. It's not likely to have a big move lower. It's not likely to have a big move higher. A lot of, basically, you know, institutional funds and money would be on the sidelines, not doing very much at all. If anything, squaring positions. No. The question is, is what positions would be squaring? If you look at what we've seen in December, it's pretty much been down, and we had no Santa Claus quote unquote rally, much like I said we wouldn't, and we would consolidate, which is what we did here. We just banged around in a small little range. I took everyone's attention to Thursday's high and low and said that we would be inside that range. It would be an inside day. That's Friday. We had a lower high than Thursday's high and a higher low than Thursday's low.
So we're going to drop down into a four-hour chart. Maximize this. [Music] Add the annotations. [Music] Okay, and trust me, we'll go through this. So here's the, the lows I'm focusing on that was based on Thursday, and Thursday's high. Below all lows is South Side liquidity, basically sell stops. Above old highs is buy side liquidity, basically buy stops. That is liquidity. Okay? When we have a range like from this candle's high and that candle's low. Now, if you're not looking at old highs and old lows for liquidity, you're looking for inefficiencies. For instance, like this candle's high, that candle's low. Only one candle passed between this candle's low and this candle's high. This is a buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency. It is not a liquidity void. A liquidity void is an actual gap like this between those candles' high and that candle's low. That is a liquidity void. Notice how the market goes back up above the short-term high here, right there where the bodies stop in this swing high, right in here. I'm just going to borrow a line real quick. [Music] [Music] Okay, you see how the buy side above this short-term high was taken? But it was more specifically aiming for that liquidity void. Why? What had to happen there? In between this candle's high and that candle's low, we only have this single candle passing through. Which direction did it pass through? Between this low and this high? Down. So to balance, to balance this out, it has to go through it. Once it comes up into it halfway, that's consequent encouragement, and then comes back up one more time, a full return. See that? So we have a pass-through down, then pass up. This area here becomes a balanced price range. Once we leave it, to inside this four-hour candle, we're going to leave this here, and we're going to come back into it with a lower timeframe. But just note that these levels here, in fact, let's change it to a heavy dashed line, and it'll make more sense when you get into lower time frames. Even though it's ugly looking, but then we have inefficiencies in here that are actually seen on the lower time frame, as you'll see, which I've walked through on the Twitter account on Friday morning. And I know some of this is probably very complicated feeling already, but everything's like that when you first get involved in it. If you want highly precision-based trade executions and analysis, it's going to take a little bit of work, and it's okay. Just warm up the idea that we're here together for the entirety of 2023, and I promise you're going to get what you're looking for. You have to show up every day, though, and take notes.
All right, so we're going to drop down into the hourly chart. Okay? And I'll scroll back over here. So here is the low from Thursday's trading and the liquidity thereof, and Thursday's high. So we have previous day's low, sell side liquidity pool noted, and Thursday's high, buy side liquidity noted. So if we're going to be expecting an inside day, as I was suggesting we would see on Friday before the market got off and started trading in 8:30 and 9:30 opening, that whole premise of being an inside day is relative to this high and that low, meaning that we're not going to go lower, which we didn't, and we're not going to go higher, which we did. So that's a narrative. Okay? That's not bias. Bias would be, which direction are you trading? Narrative is, is how is the day going to trade, and what's it likely to aim for as a result? That's not bias. Okay? It's a game plan. It's a roadmap as to what it should do. Okay? Much like if you were traveling, you know where you want to go, and you, you know where you are. If you've been there before, you probably have alternate routes in mind. You don't necessarily need to have a map, but with a map, you can articulate to someone that may have never traveled there from where you are, multiple routes. Well, that's narrative. You can provide a narrative between point A to point B because you've been there with experience in the market. There's a narrative that the market will likely drive towards one direction, liquidity, higher or lower, based on a procedure, or a list of events that would transpire before it would do that. What would be an example of that? Well, taking out a previous day's low just to run out a previous day's high. That's an extreme, but it can happen. The absence of something like that, when there's low volatility expected, would be staying inside the previous day's range. Now, if it's a Monday, you're looking at and you're anticipating an inside day, you'd be referring to the previous day of Friday, the previous last trading day, because the weekend, we can't trade. Industries. So it's a matter of knowing what you're looking for and how it's likely to deliver in price. That's narrative. That's a little bit complicated, and it's going to take some time with me throughout 2023 to kind of get a feel for what that is. I don't always know exactly what the narrative is going to be. Sometimes I go in with an expectation it's going to do this or that, and I have to adjust, and I have to adapt to what the market's doing because manual intervention can come in and upset what I believe the algorithm is likely to do. It doesn't mean that I don't know how to find another trade that would not necessarily be in alignment with that pre-market analysis or narrative in mind. It just means that I have to be, just like everyone else, adaptive to what the market's going to do. It's, it's a living, breathing, breathing organism. Okay? And it's going to make its decisions based on the people that run it. Okay? It's not buying and selling pressure that does it.
So if we drop down into a 15-minute time frame, you can already see the, the signatures of it running up. Once it leaves, it comes back up. We'll go into that in a minute. Let's do a 15-minute chart. If you're new and all of this seems like it's going over your head, I promise if you go through all of the mentorship 2022, it's 41 videos. They're not all very long. It will help you understand what I'm, I'm showing you here as well. But here's that old real liquidity void where the market leaves, it comes back up, hits it, can't get back into it again. Why? Because now it's a balanced price range. The market moves lower, and then drifts lower. And then we have all of our imbalances now from the hourly chart, which was this to this. Let me, let me go back up one more time. I'm sorry, I didn't do a good job there. This candle's high, that candle's low, that's your buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency, only hourly chart. Now we can drop down into the 15. That's that same range there to there, but now we have more candles in it. Okay? So I'm highlighting the fact that we have this range between this candle's high and that candle's low. That's this right here. Okay? I'm holding it so that we can see the difference in the contrasting blue colors. Now, when I'm trading, and this is going to be a very difficult thing for me to get through, admittedly, I, I don't trade with anything on my chart. I see the levels, and then I work with them on the chart, naked. I don't have any of this stuff on it. This is only to draw your attention to what my mind is considering salient to the market's delivery at the time of real-time data. So when I'm looking at price and I'm studying price, if I'm looking for a setup, or if I'm managing a position that hinges on all these types of things, and while I may not have them on the chart, and that's why it's sometimes confusing when I show my examples, I have very little things on my chart because it's distraction to me. But as a new student, you're going to want to need to see these things on the chart so that way you can respect the level of precision and how the algorithm will respond to them. And I'll explain more of that as we go. But we have a buy sell imbalance, sell side efficiency here on the 15-minute chart as well. And this yellow one, we'll see that when we drop down to the five minute. Okay?
And here is the five-minute chart, and we're gonna scrub over here to the same thing. This one candle here, it's high, right there. That candle's high. That candle's low. That's what I'm highlighting, and that's what the yellow range is showing. Okay? So that's the five-minute fair value gap. So what we have is nested PD arrays in the form of a fair value gap. The larger one here on the four hour, the hourly is with the trend lines, the 15-minute chart, and then finally the five-minute chart. So reducing all of the things down to a five-minute chart, and these relative equal highs over here, and we'll see that on a one-minute chart. It'll align. If I move it here, it messes up the alignment I have for my one-minute chart savings. So here we have it leaving that balanced price range earlier with that liquidity void, the real liquidity void. It leaves, breaks a low there, and comes back up and just says, "I can't get back in there." And even leaves what? That little gap between that candle's low and that candle's high open right there. And then it moves lower down into the hourly imbalance, digs in deeper into the 15-minute chart imbalance, and then into the five-minute chart imbalance right there. And then you watch me record a five-handle move using the volume imbalance, which you'll see when we get into a one-minute chart. You can watch the recording on Twitter too. It was shared yesterday or Friday morning. And then we have a market dive lower, back in this old order flow here. Then it gets sloppy. And my attention was on the 3864, which is how I left Twitter Friday morning. I said, "Note 3864 at relative equal highs." Okay? That was also shared in the chart in the morning before the markets are started moving around a lot. Market trades down to the low end of that four-hour imbalance, trades this a little bit outside of it, then hits the low. Look at that. That's perfect. That's precision. Market rallies, it comes right back up into both the, the hourly, the 15-minute, and the five-minute, and now extending all those ranges into time later in the day.
So if we take our vertical line and annotate the three o'clock hour, which would be 1500. I apologize, I should have said this at the beginning because if you're looking at TradingView, you always, no matter where you are globally, you always have the time settings on TradingView set to New York. If you don't do that, number one, you will not be in alignment with the algorithm, and you will not be in alignment with my analysis. You'll be hard-pressed to find the things I'm showing you in the chart. It'll be confusing. I know it may be an adjustment for you, but trust me, the markets run on this time. Okay? Forget anything else anybody's ever told you. This is what you use. Okay? So just scroll through on TradingView and make sure your your time is always set to New York. Now, for indices, if we're seeing daylight savings time effect, because every year they talk about how they're likely to do away with it, I wish they would personally, but whatever you're doing, if you're trading index futures, you're going to always use New York local time, whether it's daylight savings time or whatever. Okay? It's never an issue for me for trading Forex, but for stock indices, I'm going to be using it relative to New York time. Okay? So hopefully that clears it up for kill zones and operating hours.
Now we're going to drop down to a one-minute chart. Okay? And here is the PM session, three o'clock to four o'clock. This is a small little window of opportunity that if you are looking for just something that is going to be a real easy small window of trading, you don't have a whole lot of time, and you want to just really go in there and look for something that's going to offer five handles or more. Five handles would be like this. If you have a move say from 36 even down to 31 even, that much of range is five handles. It's not much, and you can see having that, there's lots of opportunities to find five handles in all this movement. I know it probably doesn't feel like it's easy, but I promise it's, it's there. It's very easy to do after you know what you're looking for. What is it you're looking for? Well, we had a buy side liquidity pool at 38.64. Okay? That's what this level is here at three o'clock. What I'm looking for is a reason to trust that it's going to run to a pool of liquidity, which I had already made known publicly in the morning session. So before lunchtime even began in New York time noon, you all knew my attention was on 3864. I'm not going to pull up a tweet because I want you to go into my Twitter feed on Friday and see it yourself and look at the time and the date stamp on it. I never ever ever delete a tweet. If I make a mistake, and if I don't notice the error, invariably one of my students are going to say, "Hey, did you mean this?" or correct it, and then I'll say something to the effect, or I'll like their post more or less confirming, saying, "Yes, you got, you understand correctly." Or if I noticed I made an error, I'll add in addition to that tweet, I'll say, "This is, you know, this is what I meant." Much like I did on Friday morning when I mentioned the incorrect contract month, because obviously we can't trade March 2022 contract, which would be in TradingView, the symbol you would use to pull it up would be ESH2022. Well, you can't pull up that contract because it's expired. So I made an error in calling that up. It's ESH2023, which is the front month right now for index futures, ES. Now, if you're watching this video later on, obviously you may not be able to see it. So just go through the tweets, and you'll see the charts, and there it is. And the recordings obviously show everything here.
All right, so after three o'clock, what I'm looking for is a reason to anticipate a move up into that 3864. Okay? So we're going to take this off because it's just more or less me glad-handing with the viewers. Oh, and, uh, the fact that we went up into this area. So we have this five-minute pyramid you got, which I'm going to bring to the forefront. Okay? Now we see this, and we also notice that in here, this movement here started somewhere. Where did it start? Well, we're already in the upper portion of this range from the four hour. So this, this range here, see that middle point? Where above it, which is what we want to see. Now, don't confuse that with, "Oh, you're going long in a premium." That's not a premium. That's not a premium at all because we are now in the last hour with the expectation that we're going to run above that 3864 because there's buy side liquidity resting above that. I drew everyone's attention, that's where it's going to go. Why? Because the likelihood of us seeing a short covering rally. Now, here's where my viewership gets divided because some of you may be, may have been trading for a long time, maybe you've learned from other people, maybe you've adopted your own opinion about what the market does, what it doesn't do, how it books price, which things make it move higher or lower, what causes it to stay stagnant and go in consolidation. The market will rally because the algorithm keeps offering a higher price, and anybody that comes in at market, guess what? They're getting filled at that price. And as long as the algorithm keeps spooling, which means it's going to keep moving and offering higher prices, initially, anyone short, they won't be swayed by that. But eventually, as it just keeps grinding higher, offering, offering, offering, higher, higher, and not allowing lower prices, it does not matter how many people are coming in going short. That doesn't matter if the algorithm is going higher. It's going higher, and it's going to squeeze you out. Now, when it doesn't suit the trader or educator's narrative or why their pattern didn't work, they will fall back on, "Well, it's because there was a short covering rally and the market squeezed traders out and short covering made price go up." No, the algorithm is pricing higher. And as a default, as a default, participants that are covering are forced to do what? Buy it back to get out of their short because you have to sell to get in first when you're trying to make money going lower. Well, anyone that's been short as this is going higher, they're contemplating whether or not this is a good thing to hold onto. And with the last day of the year, and you want to be able to book your profit so that way you have earned your capital gains and now you can pay your taxes on it. This movement here is just going to keep driving higher and higher and higher, which is what I was expecting. What I outlined in the recording on Friday morning, and you're welcome to go through that video again with this insights, that way you understand what it is I'm explaining. This is not buying pressure that drives it up there. This pull liquidity above 3864 is the pressure. Okay? The market's going to go up there because that's where the orders are. What orders? Buy stops. Okay? Anyone that's short, they have a large pool of orders collectively around and just above 3864. So the algorithm sees that as an old reference point. It cannot listen to me. It cannot see your order. It can't see my order, but it knows by its coding that that old relative equal high, which is two old highs, which is what I drew out on your on your charts in Twitter. Go back and look. You'll see it's there, and you'll actually see there, there also, even in the morning trade around TradingView. I make sure that that is in the, it's in the filming of the screen. I want to make sure that that's in there because that was the real move of the day, getting up to here with the narrative that there's going to be short covering and they're going to implement a buy model that takes price higher, higher, higher, and higher, and higher, and it forces it, twists the arm of traders, not because of their buying pressure. The algorithm is only going to tick higher. And any movement down is going to be muted. It's going to be small little increments. How many down closed candles is there in all this? Not many. And when they're there, how big are they? They're not big at all. But all of the, all the movement and the magnitude and velocity is all on the up close, all the green candles gravitating towards that pool of liquidity resting above 3864. Okay? So we anticipate this occurring based on the fact that it's the last trading day of the year, people want to get their money, they want to get paid, and they got to square up positions. That means they got to get out of wherever they're in. And what's likely to be the, the bias, the directional aspect of the analysis concepts, it's this pool of liquidity. So all this movement down here, look, it went outside the four-hour imbalance and then went right down to and touched it right there. Perfect. You can't get any better than that. There's no improvement on that. There's nothing you can add to that in terms of precision. It stops exactly where I drew your attention to. This is during the lead up to the last hour of trading. Then we have the movement here. You don't have to be a buyer here. You want to look for that real easy setup, the real easy setup, but everything's lined up perfectly. The market rallies, creates a smaller imbalance right here. Now I'm going to take the 15-minute off to start cleaning up this little area in here, but I want you to kind of like recall where these things are. If you're doing it in your own chart, you'll see it too. But just for a tutorial, I'm walking you through the mindset and also giving a whole lot of other things in this video that would otherwise be a very short one because I don't want to do long videos. And the future of 2023, I want them to be more concise, but when it's necessary, I'm going to have to obviously give you some banter. So it's needed. It's not that I want to make the videos longer, it's for you to understand more accurately what it is I'm trying to draw your attention to.
So let's first get the four-hour range off. Okay? So that takes that off, and we're going to take off the 15-minute. So now we're left with a one-minute buy side imbalance, sell side inefficiency. Okay? Look at this candle. Now you're going to look right here at this number right there. Okay? This candle's high. What is that? 3839 and a quarter. 39.25. Just remember that. What's the low of this candle? Right there. 3839.25. Perfect. Did it go one tick below it? No. Did it fall short of getting to the bottom of it? No. It went right to it. What about this candle right there? What was the low of that candle? We're looking at this number right there. Okay? That low is 3839 and a quarter. What about this low right there? Right here on that candle. 3839.25. Folks, that's perfect. Okay? That is absolutely perfect. You cannot argue. You cannot improve upon. You can't say anything could have done it better. I outlined it real time. It was recorded. It was executed on, and you seen the delivery. Okay? If there was not an algorithm, price wouldn't do that. My stop loss was placed just below here, right at that candle's opening, why? Because it's going to respect that one-minute fair value gap because we've already did what? This is the hourly. This is the low of the fair value gap on the hour. This is the high of the fair value gap on the hour chart. So I've watched as it went down. We went through it to touch the top here. We hit it. I bought it first at the top of the fair value gap using that right there. I wanted to go in with that, and then I added more, and then added one more time, just to show you that I was not fearful of the stop being hit because the logic is that 60-minute fair value gap is now going to support it because we've already closed in the one-minute. There's no need for it. There's no need for it. Why? We're also running out of time. It's 24 minutes, 24 minutes after, I'm sorry, 25 minutes after three, or 15:25. So now the market's going to have to start doing what? Gravitate towards that liquidity up here. Short sellers are going to want to cover, and they're going to be enticed to cover because of the algorithm repricing higher, higher, high, higher, higher. When do I know it's really going to kick off? Once this shows all the bodies being unwilling to close at the low end of that 60-minute fair value gap. Once I see this, I'm waiting for the market to want to leave this area and starts to move here. And then right there, this candle, that's exactly what I'm looking for. The market's starting to break away, take off a lot of acceleration. Once it does this, it creates another what? This is here, a fair value gap. But this fair value gap is likely to stay open. What does that mean? Much like this gap here, I mean, just, just for the second here, I'm going to darken up a little bit. Okay? Between this candle's high and this candle's low, right there, that's what I'm shading in as a rectangle. The market comes completely down and fills that in right there, and it does it again here, and it does it again right there. Perfectly, perfectly. That's not support resistance. That's not like off. That's not supply and demand. It is absolutely the algorithm. Okay? And once it does this, it completely closes that in and then leaves it. But it starts off another fair value gap right as it leaves this one. So it's not going to do what? It's not going to be consolidation, expansion, reversal. It's going to be consolidation, expansion, and continue. It can consolidate and then run higher, but it's not going to consolidate, expansion, come right back in into a retracement. That's not what it's going to do. The algorithm is going to leave this little area open. And you watch me do two examples of it this week. I identified it before it even proved to you as the viewer it wasn't going to go back in, close this in this range in or overlap. What you see here, this up candle, that range between this candle's open here and this candle's low here, that one single up candle, that green one. Let me take this off for a second. This one candle gets overlapped right there. So it's going up. It has to do what to rebalance? It has to go down. So now we've done what? We've offered buy side delivery, sell side delivery, and then when we leave that range here, once we get back above this candle's low, this is a balanced price range. It's not, it's not going back down there, especially if we have one single candle pass through again where it's taking off. And then we have this candle. Since this candle closes and we start this candle right there, then I know that that gap is there and it's going to stay open. But what happens if it starts to go back down into it? Into this low right in here, I'm going to buy it. And knowing it's not going to go down here, and my stop would go just below the bodies of these candles here, which is what it went to next. Once I trailed it up, and I'm going to watch these candles paint and watch and see how they gravitate towards this pool of liquidity, which was 38.53 and a half. Once this was filled again, it's all short-term high back here, buy side right there. It gravitates to that one. So this one's no longer salient. We don't need to worry about the hourly because we've already left that range. It's gone. And all of the, the trades and the executions, which I gotta add now that little rectangle back on here because otherwise it won't show as nicely as I want to. And we'll just do it with, uh, that's good. Okay? And here's the five-minute fair value gap. This breakaway gap, which is what this is, it's a fair value gap, but it's a breakaway gap. A breakaway gap in this is not likely to be traded back into. You don't want to see it traded back into. And if we take this five-minute off because now we know that that's where it's likely to occur, this suddenly takes on a whole new dynamic when you see everything I'm doing. I'm buying at the top of the fair value gap right here as it goes into it here, and then I'm buying it here and here as it's tagging on a one-minute candle, time to time it as it hits it, boom, boom. And then right in here, I'm adding one more because this is a breaker. I'm surprised most of you didn't even ask, "Why'd you do this secondary entry right there?" I'm going to show you. We're going to take this rectangle and just add it to this here. Okay? And what I'm doing is I'm buying inside this up candle because what it's doing is there's a short-term low here. It's going after that liquidity and rebalancing here, there, and it runs up. Now it's a balanced price range. It should not enter this area again. And then we have one single candle passing through on the outside. That's a break. We got you don't find that in any of your retail books, folks. And I'm leaving other parts of it out because it's going to be in my books. I know some of you who's already out there trying to write Amazon books and put my stuff out there and not even crediting me. Yeah, I'm going to be in your reviews, trust me. So the running up into the buy sell liquidity here, you can see as we hit it there. You go. So let's put the lipstick on as you would expect to see if it was a real execution, it would look like that. Okay? And all of the entries were done inside the final hour of trading, and the liquidity was filled almost two minutes late. Technically, I was expecting these candles to reach up in there as we were getting to the four o'clock hour, but humanity in me, it caused me to be about two minutes or so off. But that's okay, I guess. So I mean, it's, it's good to me. I call it a miss, but you know, that's what I strive for for levels of precision. Don't you try to do those types of things because it's going to take you decades to get to this level. But this is what we do. We look for opportunities where the algorithm is going to seek liquidity. We're not looking for patterns. We're not looking for harmonic things. We're not looking for, you know, any kind of trend line analysis, you know, none of that stuff. It's the raw market algorithmically, and it repeats over and over and over again. There's certain times of the day it will repeat, and then there's certain times the market will be expected to do something, and then we have to decide whether or not we're going to reverse or stay out. In the beginning, if you're new, it's better for you to err on the side of, well, I'm going to go with staying out and just observe. Don't reverse. But with experience, sometimes, not all the time, sometimes you'll find it's a good opportunity to reverse if your analysis doesn't pan out or it doesn't come to fruition. A versed trader in price action and understanding what they're doing, they may go in and fade their initial analysis and reverse and do something entirely different. I've done that. I've executed that. I've done it in front of other people. But generally, as a rule of thumb, if you're new, you don't want to go when you're thinking, "Okay, I was wrong, let me go the other direction." And that's how you blow your account. And if you are a funded trader, you've accumulated a funded account through all these funded prop firms, you certainly don't want to be doing that. If you're a funded trader, never, ever, ever, ever, ever reverse. Just stay out and wait for the next session. What does that mean? If you're trading the morning session between 8:30 and 11, you want to be looking to make your money or your trade there. If you lose there, okay, be done and wait for the afternoon session. But what happens if your analysis in the morning, you're expecting it to go up, and it starts to go down? Don't, don't reverse. Wait. Because if it's going to be a reversal of your analysis, and if you're using what I'm teaching, chances are you're probably gonna have something really nice in the PM session. It's going to be cleaner than the morning. Let everybody else get chopped up and banged around. If, if everybody's thinking it's going to go one direction, many times the market will create these opportunities where you'll get like a broken wing trick, like a robin. You ever see a robin when they're out there on the ground and they're trying to teach their babies how to fly? If they see you, and they're always going to see you before you see them, they'll start tweeting and put their wing out like it's broken, and that's going to draw the attention of you, the predator, in their eyes, to them, and they'll move real slow away from their baby, and you'll chase after that because you see it and hear it, "Oh, it's an easy prey, let me go get that." And as you get closer to it, right before you get close enough to it, it flies away. There's nothing wrong with it. The market does those types of tricks. So as a neophyte, as a new trader, you don't want to be in there falling victim to the robin. Okay? You're getting out there chasing something you think is easy, and then, "Oh, let me go back to hunting the baby. Okay, let me reverse and do something else." You shouldn't do that at all. Just, just wait. Wait to the next trading session. And if you try to have an expectation in the PM session, PM session is two o'clock to four o'clock. You can reduce that down into the last hour of trading. Every single trading day that's worth its weight in trading, this type of move is going to be there. There's going to be a run to an old high or an old low or an imbalance. Okay? It's going to be something to that effect. There's no other complication to this. I know a lot of people like to criticize because they don't really know what I'm doing. They watch a few videos and they listen to me because I'm very long-winded. I'm long-winded because I have lots of experience. I have lots of things to teach. And you think it's just a matter of knowing when to buy and sell. When is these candles now? Because the new flavor is, "How does ICT know when these candles are not going to fill in?" Because everybody thinks they're liquidity voids. They're not. Okay? It's a matter of layering experience on circumstances that permit me to use it. So you can see clearly, I know what I'm looking for. I executed on it. I even explained it beforehand in the charts. Tells you exactly the levels that the market would use, and look how they reacted. And you can't deny that. You can't even argue with it. There's no denying it. There is an algorithm. Yes, yes indeed there is. And you're talking to somebody that knows it like the back of their hand, and I'm improving it. There's nobody else out there that has the authority to be teaching Smart Money Concepts because they're mine. I authored them. These are my codings. These are my things. All of these signatures are mine. So writing books and making courses and mentorships trying to teach something that you have no complete understanding of is foolish. Stop doing harm to other people teaching things you don't know because you don't know. This year, I'm making myself available to all of you. It's your job. It's your responsibility to be diligent and show up every day. If you choose not to do what I tell you to do, and you want to do something else, or if you want to break the rules and bend the logic and try to make it, you know, do something different so you can call it your own thing, you're going to fail. Trust me, you're going to.
Fail. It's as simple as that. During these moves like this, you're going to see people out there on live streams that they're trying to sell short. Why? You don't know how to trade them. You're going against the underlying order flow. You're going against the very algorithm that some of these people believe that you're trading with. They are not. They are not.
All you have to do is sit back, bring a notepad, be prepared to have a lot of insight. And during the live sessions, I won't be doing a lot of the talking like I'm doing here. This is making sure I'm preparing your expectations. I'm only going to be talking when it's salient. That's it.
But we're going to be looking at a five-minute and a one-minute chart. I'm going to annotate everything top-down so that way the things are there on the chart so that we understand what I'm looking for. Then on the left side or the right side, I'm having decided on how I'm going to do it, but I'm going to split my screen and there'll be a five-minute chart and there'll be a one-minute chart. We will not need to look at a 15, an hour, a four-hour, in a daily chart. All of the reference points will be already on the chart on the five and a one-minute chart. So it allows me to keep your focus on what is important to be monitoring right then and there.
And in every individual candle, I'll reference something that's useful. Is, you know, for instance, if we saw this movement here, and let me go back and add the execution. Okay, I'm not going to push the button in front of you because I don't want to entice any of you to take a trade. I don't want that responsibility. And I'm not front-running anything.
Everything that I do during the live sessions, they are going to be days that I'm not pushing the button myself. I'm not going to be doing anything live account. I'm not going to be doing it in a demo account. That way, I'm not pumping and dumping. I'm not influencing anybody because there's a lot of people that follow this channel. And if it is going to be big and there's a lot of people following the channel, I don't want to have anybody to accuse me of, "Oh, I'm front-running. I'm going to get in the market then tell you I think it's going to go up so all of you do what. Bye, bye, bye, bye, bye. And then I get out and then I tell you, "Okay, this is probably a good time to get out after I've already got out." See, that's scamming. That's fraud. I don't do those things. I do absolutely nothing like that. I will not do anything like that.
That's why I've always taught in demo. That's why I've always shown paper trading. Until this year, I showed you a live account where it was 100% return in five weeks. So, you know, it, this stuff works. And you don't have to be perfect to do well. You don't have to be everyday trading. You don't have to be in every single move. And don't get caught up in the trap of looking at social media. Even my execution, don't look at my executions and think that's a barometer for how good I need to be right now because that's unrealistic. You shouldn't have that mindset at all.
You want to be looking for where can I find five handles? Start there. Okay? Because if you can consistently hit that a few times a week, that's well, you can do very well with that. If you just trade one mini contract on ES, if you move from, well, going along at 48.47, okay, from 4847 to 4848, that's $50. That would be a profit. From the time I entered the trade at 38.47, the measure of drawdown on that low is one point. The lowest 46. No, I'm sorry, I'm saying that incorrectly. No, I'm right. See what I doubt myself. 3847 is where I got in and the lowest drawdown in the movement here, the low of that candle is 46. So I had one, one point drawdown.
Using a breaker. Okay, the breaker is this low, high, lower low, and then leaves it. Okay. What am I? You know, what am I trading? It didn't really leave ICT. It left the high of this body. See, that's the part I'm talking about. You think you know order block theory. It will all be in my book, okay? I promise you. But you don't need that, okay? It's not a sales pitch for the book, okay? That's like my last gift to the community, okay? And yeah, I'm gonna do it with a price tag, but it's more or less to put the signature on that everybody else that's tried to rush out there and put things in print that's all garbage. And I'm gonna eviscerate all that, okay? Because it's all nonsense. It's not the last down-closed candle before they help me move. It's not the, it's not the last up-closed candle before the download. There's other things you got to know.
I purposely left things out because of that. I knew people out here were doing all this creating new courses and and revamping things, okay, that I've taught that are unique to me and just change the name and and to me, admit the idea that they learned it from me. So if you know how to do it, folks, you know, here's your chance to get out there in 2023 and do what you're about to see me do, okay? Because I guarantee, man, you're not going to see anybody else do what I'm going to show you. You're not going to see it. You're not going to be anywhere near this as precise. You're not going to be as consistent. And that's a testimony because if someone's out there is selling a signal service, which is absolutely, in my opinion, required to show a track record. If you're going to be doing signal services and and something to that effect, you need to be showing a track record. This is what I've done and this is why you should invest in my signals. But if you go out there and you just show an MT4, here's a list of trades that I did and this is how this is why you should subscribe to me or I should teach you because I show you this. No, you need to be watching them engage the marketplace, use a real stop loss, trade management, and then show the logic that supposedly is behind their methodology. Because I am of the opinion that I'm the only one that's doing that. And you can snicker and say, "Oh, but you're only doing it in a paper trading account on TradingView." You're right. You're absolutely right. And you can only trade live data on TradingView. I'm doing it for compliance reasons. I'm not a licensed financial advisor. So everything I talk about is price action. And price action is paper trading and demo.
Now, the astute pupil will sit back over time and realize, "Okay, yeah, these things work in real-time data." It matters not that it's being done with a live account. It matters if there is consistency. Is there precision? Does it work? Does the logic repeat over and over and over again? And yes, you saw that in 2022. And in 2023, you're going to see it in 4K resolution.
Now, at some point, you're going to make a decision whether or not you want to transition from playing in a demo account, playing in a paper trading account, to live trading. You make that decision on your own. I never, ever tell any of my students to do it. In fact, I preach against it because 90% of the time, you're not ready. You're gonna feel like you are because you're impulsive. You want to get out there and do it right away. You want to start making money because you think that's going to be the answer to your depression and the feeling of not being who you really want to be. When who you really want to be is someone that's not driven by the money. You're driven by discipline. You know when to do something, when not to do something.
Look at this chart for a second, okay? And I'm going to close this one. Look at the time I'm highlighting here, okay? When you look at charts, here's the actual close of the session, okay? But I like to see things go to the four o'clock hour. But there's always a little bleed over because at 4:15, that's when the closing bell occurs. And they'll have it on every candle. I apologize, okay? So there is the last hour and 15 minutes of trading. Your setup is going to form in the last hour between three o'clock and four o'clock. If you don't have a setup, okay? If you don't have a setup by 10 minutes before, don't do anything. Don't do anything. Just observe it. But generally, you're going to find between 3:15 and 3:45, which would be in New York time, one trading view, which would be 1515. That is like a little tiny small sweet spot where if I know where I'm looking for for liquidity above the marketplace, if I'm bullish, below the marketplace, if I'm bearish, or that there's an imbalance.
What is an imbalance? Something like this, okay? This is an imbalance. That's an imbalance. What kind of an imbalance? Buy-side imbalance, sell-side inefficiency. Buy time and balance, sell-side inefficiency. Okay? I'm looking for that as a draw on price. It's going to pull it up to get back into one of these areas like it did here, or it's going to go up above an old high. So it's going to go to pools of liquidity above an old high or relative equal highs, or below an old low or relative equal lows, or it's going to go back to an area where it needs to revisit in a sense of repricing for the purpose of rebalancing. And simply because it goes back down in here, that's not rebalanced. It's balancing, but it's rebounds once you leave it because it then becomes a balanced price range. So that's what this, that's the difference between me and what other educators might say. And I bring their receipts. So there's that.
Hopefully, you found that insightful. And I'm sure we'll be back at it again. This is only the only installment we're going to have for this week. And I will probably share something with you next week. And then we'll build into a a more consistent pattern. And real-time analysis and markups and such will begin on February 7th of 2023. Until then, it'll just be one week, one video per week where I'm addressing something kind of like warming you up to it. What should you be doing between now and February 7th? Watching the playlists that I told you to watch at the beginning of the video. You should be subscribed to Twitter. I promise I'm not going to tweet a lot. I'm only going to be using it to draw your attention to something, okay? So don't be, don't be afraid to have Twitter and have the alerts and notification set because I'm using it to get your attention. I cannot do that with YouTube. Sometimes YouTube, when I make a post to my community post, it doesn't always reach people timely. Twitter is like me texting you to your phone, okay? It'll be right there. You can see it. It may be a link to a chart. It may be a picture of a chart. It may be a comment or something to draw your attention to or a schedule change, okay? So that way, you know it's important for you to have the following on my Twitter account. If you don't have that, you're not going to be up to the minute with knowing what I'm thinking, what I'm about to do, or what I'm scheduling, okay? That's how you know my schedule. I'm not going to be doing any kind of scheduling through YouTube. You're only going to know it through Twitter. So until talk to you next week, Happy New Year, and I look forward to teaching you amazing things real-time.