Transcription
Listen carefully. If you are planning to buy or sell gold this Monday and you close this video before the end, you might miss an opportunity to profit or avoid a very big loss in your life. Next week's gold prices have some signals that most people don't know yet. The global market is sending some signals before the Thai market opens on Monday, May 25, 2026. And if you don't watch this video until the end, you won't know what to do with your money and gold tomorrow. What many people are doing right now is waiting to see the situation. But smarter people don't wait; they prepare information beforehand, they analyze the market beforehand, and they make decisions before the market moves. This video will take you through everything you need to know, from today's Thai gold price which has just decreased, to signals from the US Federal Reserve, the Middle East conflict situation that is pressuring gold prices, to the latest forecasts from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. But first, I need to be honest with you. Everything you will get from this video is my prediction based on the information available on May 23, 2026. I cannot guarantee 100% that the price will be like that because the gold market has many variables that no one can predict entirely in advance. But what I am bringing to you today is accurate and reliable information from leading global sources so that you can make informed decisions. If you are ready, let's begin. On Saturday, May 23, 2026, the Gold Traders Association announced the gold price in Thailand for the first time at 9:03 AM. And what was seen in that announcement was a price decrease of 200 baht from the previous day. The numbers you need to remember are as follows: For 96.5% gold bars, the buying price is 69,650 baht per baht weight, and the selling price is 69,850 baht per baht weight. For gold ornaments, the buying price is 68,250 baht per baht weight, and the selling price is 76,050 baht per baht weight. If we look at smaller units, 2 salung of gold is approximately 34,925 baht, and 1 salung of gold is approximately 17,462 baht. Now, if we look at the overall picture of the past week, as reported by the Gold Research Center of the Gold Traders Association, the Thai gold price moved within the range of 74,500 baht to 72,450 baht per baht weight throughout the past week. This means that today's price of 69,850 baht is even lower than the lowest point of last week, which clearly indicates that selling pressure in the global market is pushing down the Thai gold price. But wait, a price decrease does not always mean gold is entering a downtrend. Sometimes, a price pullback is a real opportunity for those with sufficient funds and information, which I will explain at the end of the video. The important thing you need to know first is that the Thai gold price is not determined domestically; it is determined by the global gold price in USD per ounce and the baht-to-dollar exchange rate. Therefore, if we want to know the direction of gold prices on Monday, we must look at the global market first. As of Friday, May 22, 2026, the global gold price XAU USD closed at 4,516.75 US dollars per ounce, down 0.58% from the previous day. And throughout the past week, the price moved in the range of 4,481 to 4,570 dollars. The weekly average was approximately 4,535 dollars. Another interesting figure is that the current global gold price is still lower than the historical high reached on January 28, 2026, which went up to 5,062 dollars per ounce, a record all-time high for gold. And now the price is around 4,516 dollars. This means the gold price has decreased from its peak by approximately 19%, or almost one-fifth. However, looking at the long term, today's gold price is still 34% higher than the price a year ago. This means if you bought gold last year and held it until today, you would still have a 34% profit. This is what makes gold still an interesting asset for long-term investors. Now, let's talk about the reasons for gold prices being at this level in the past week. There are two main factors pulling gold prices in opposite directions. The first factor pushing gold prices down is the still high US bond yields. When bond yields are high, investors have other options that offer interest, reducing the demand for holding gold in the short term. Additionally, the strengthening dollar during the middle of the week also caused gold prices in dollar terms to decrease. But the second factor, which is supporting gold prices, is geopolitical uncertainty, especially the conflict situation between the US and Iran, which shows no signs of ending soon. I will discuss this in detail in a few minutes. For Monday, May 25, 2026, which is the date we are most interested in, analysis from Light Finance indicates that XAU USD is expected to move within the range of 4,441 to 4,576 dollars and can move in both directions. Next week, overall, will have moderate volatility due to the announcement of several important economic data that the market is watching. This is very important. If you want to truly understand the direction of gold, you must first understand the US Federal Reserve. In the latest FOMC meeting on April 29, 2026, the Fed committee decided to keep interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. This is a continuous interest rate hold. What is interesting is that this decision was the most divided vote since October 1992, with one committee member agreeing to a rate cut and three members opposing accommodative policies. The next FOMC meeting will be held on June 16-17, 2026. And according to data from CME Fed Watch Tools, there is a high probability of 65% that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, and only about a 33% chance of a 0.25% rate cut. The chance of a rate hike is still very low. But this is what is concerning. Recently, Fed Governor Chris Waller signaled that he disagrees with the central bank maintaining accommodative policies, and the market is assessing a 55% chance of seeing at least a 0.25% rate hike by October 2026, due to inflationary pressures from the energy crisis related to the Middle East conflict. Why is this important for gold prices? Because there is a clear relationship between interest rate policy and gold prices. As interest rates rise, the cost of holding gold, which does not bear interest, also rises. Investors will turn to holding bonds or interest-bearing assets, putting further downward pressure on gold prices. Therefore, in the short term, next week, if the Fed does not signal a rate cut and continues to signal a steady stance, gold prices will continue to face pressure from this direction. But what the market is waiting for next week is the US Q1 GDP data to be announced on May 28, and the jobless claims data. Both of these will determine the direction of the week. If GDP comes out weaker than expected, gold may recover because the market will see that the Fed has more pressure to cut rates. But if GDP is strong, gold prices may remain in a low range. This is what you need to follow next week, not just gold prices, but also US economic data. Now, let's move to the part that I think many people have not paid enough attention to: the geopolitical situation that is directly impacting gold prices right now. The biggest issue at the moment is the conflict between the US and Iran. As of May 22, 2026, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that there was slight progress in negotiations through intermediaries, but it had not reached a point where an agreement could be reached. Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered that existing enriched uranium be kept within the country, which is a significant obstacle to negotiations because the US wants Iran to cease its nuclear activities. Even more interesting, Iran is currently negotiating with Oman to create a payment system through the Strait of Hormuz. This would mean Iran would control one of the world's most important oil transit routes. President Trump has rejected this plan, but tensions remain. This conflict has two effects on gold prices. On one hand, it causes oil prices to rise, which leads to inflation, and inflation is usually a positive factor for gold. On the other hand, if inflation rises too much, the Fed may have to raise interest rates, and raising interest rates is a negative factor for gold. The shocking data is that since this conflict began, global gold prices have already decreased by 14% from their peak, which contradicts the general intuition that war will cause gold to rise. The reason is that this time, investors are more concerned that an energy crisis will force the Fed to raise interest rates than they are concerned about the insecurity of holding other assets. Another geopolitical factor to watch is the relationship between the US and China. Previously, in mid-May, there was a summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing from May 13-15, 2026, which was a very important high-level meeting. The outcome of this meeting led to a temporary reduction in trade tensions and was one of the factors pressuring gold in the middle of the month, because when global risk decreases, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset also decreases. But in the long term, the Middle East conflict is not over, economic uncertainty remains, and gold continues to be supported by long-term structural factors that I will discuss next. This is the part I believe you have been waiting for the most: what the world's major banks are looking at regarding gold for the rest of 2026. Starting with Commerzbank, this bank has confirmed its year-end gold price target of $5,400 per ounce, even though gold prices fell more than 10% in March, the largest monthly decline since June 1970. Commerzbank still maintains a positive outlook on gold, stating that structural factors such as central bank gold purchases and demand for real assets continue to support prices in the long term. Additionally, JP Morgan expects global central banks to buy as much as 585 tons of gold per quarter in 2026. UBS is more moderate, with a base target of $5,900 and a best-case scenario of up to $6,200. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo Investment Institute forecasts prices to be in the range of $6,100-$6,300 by year-end. Deutz Bank and Societe Generale both predict prices to break $6,000. What is interesting is that even a survey of 31 analysts compiled by Reuters gives a median average gold price for 2026 of $4,916, which is significantly higher than the current price. But I want you to consider one thing. The current gold price is around $4,516. If JP Morgan's year-end target is $6,300, that means a potential increase of over 39% from this point within just half a year. But if the most conservative target is $4,700, there is still an opportunity for about a 4% increase from this point. The question is, are you ready to wait for the price to rise and then buy, or will you consider it when the price is still at this level? That is something you must decide for yourself. Let's look at Technical Analysis, which is an analysis of price charts and various indicators to assess short-term price direction. Currently, gold price XAU USD is moving in the zone between $4,500 and $4,530-$4,545. The $4,500 level is a very important support because buyers have repeatedly stepped in to protect this level in the past. The resistance is at the short-term EMA cluster in the $4,530-$4,545 range, which is the zone where sellers come in to push down the price each time the price attempts to rebound. Short-term technical indicators are quite concerning, as 19 indicators are signaling a downtrend and only 7 are signaling an uptrend as of May 22, 2026, indicating that short-term selling pressure still exists. For long-term indicators, the 200-day SMA is expected to reach $4,678 by June 21, 2026, and the 50-day SMA is expected to be at $4,538 during the same period. Both of these values indicate that the long-term trend is still upward, even though there is short-term volatility. Looking at the overall chart pattern, gold prices are in a consolidation phase or a pause after a strong rally. This pattern usually precedes accumulation before the price moves in the next major direction. And looking at the main trend, gold is still making higher highs and higher lows, meaning new highs and new higher lows. This means the main trend is still upward. For the situation to watch on Monday, the good scenario is if the price can hold strongly above the $4,500 support level, there is a chance the price will attempt to test the resistance at $4,554 and $4,576. If converted to Thai gold prices at an exchange rate of approximately 32.7 baht per dollar and a weight of 1 baht equals 15.244 grams, Thai gold prices could rise to 70,000-70,500 baht per baht weight. The bad scenario is if the price breaks below the $4,500 support level, we might see a decline to test the $4,441 zone, which in Thai gold prices could fall to approximately 69,000-69,500 baht per baht weight, or even lower if selling pressure is severe. It is time for what everyone has been waiting for. This video is my personal forecast for the gold market on Monday, May 25, 2026, based on all the data collected from leading sources, including the Gold Traders Association, TradingView, X Market, CME Fed Watch data, and forecasts from major global banks. I predict that on Monday, May 25, 2026, Thai gold prices will move within the following range: The selling price of gold bars is forecast to be between 69,500-70,000 baht per baht weight, with a tendency to move sideways or fluctuate within this range, as the global market is closed over the weekend, and the Asian market will set the initial direction on Monday morning. Factors that could cause prices to rise on Monday include: 1. If there is bad news from the Middle East over the weekend, gold prices as a safe-haven asset will immediately receive buying pressure. 2. If the dollar weakens during the market opening, gold prices in dollar terms will naturally rise. 3. If there is significant gold buying by central banks in the Asian market. Factors that could cause prices to fall on Monday include: 1. If negotiations between the US and Iran show clear progress over the weekend, demand for gold will decrease. 2. If the Asian stock market opens strong, investors will move money from gold to the stock market. 3. If the baht strengthens, gold prices in baht terms will decrease even if the dollar price remains unchanged. Summary of Thai gold price forecast for Monday, May 25, 2026: The selling price of gold bars is forecast to be between 69,500-70,200 baht per baht weight. The selling price of gold ornaments is forecast to be between 70,300-71,000 baht per baht weight. There is a 60% probability that prices will move sideways within this range. There is a 25% probability that prices will rise above the upper limit if there are positive factors from the Middle East or a weakening dollar. And there is a 15% probability that prices will fall below the lower limit if there is good news about peace negotiations or a strong stock market recovery. Before I give my advice, I want you to understand the big picture first, because making good decisions about gold requires referencing both short-term and long-term perspectives. The long-term structural factors that continue to support gold prices are as follows: First, central bank gold purchases. Central banks worldwide, especially from emerging economies like China, India, and Poland, are continuously accumulating gold reserves to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. According to JP Morgan's forecast, global central banks will buy a total of 585 tons of gold per quarter in 2026, which is a historically high level. Demand from this source is a long-term support that is unlikely to disappear. Second, de-dollarization. Many major powers are trying to reduce the proportion of dollars in their international reserves, and gold is the primary asset replacing it. This trend shows no signs of slowing down. Third, demand for gold ETFs. In the past, ETFs investing in gold have seen continuous inflows, indicating that institutional and retail investors worldwide remain interested in gold in the long term. Fourth, a crisis in gold exploration. Data from Gold Broker indicates that although global gold production in 2025 exceeded 3,600 tons, a record high, the discovery of new gold deposits has significantly decreased. This means that in the future, gold supply may not be sufficient to meet demand, which will be a factor driving prices up in the long term. The picture from all these factors is that even though short-term gold prices may be volatile, the long-term outlook remains positive. It is time for what everyone has been waiting for. This video is my personal forecast for the gold market on Monday, May 25, 2026, based on all the data collected from leading sources, including the Gold Traders Association, TradingView, X Market data, CME Fed Watch, and forecasts from major global banks. I predict that on Monday, May 25, 2026, Thai gold prices will move within the following range: The selling price of gold bars is forecast to be between 69,500-70,000 baht per baht weight, with a tendency to move sideways or fluctuate within this range, as the global market is closed over the weekend, and the Asian market will set the initial direction on Monday morning. Factors that could cause prices to rise on Monday include: 1. If there is bad news from the Middle East over the weekend, gold prices as a safe-haven asset will immediately receive buying pressure. 2. If the dollar weakens during the market opening, gold prices in dollar terms will naturally rise. 3. If there is significant gold buying by central banks in the Asian market. Factors that could cause prices to fall on Monday include: 1. If negotiations between the US and Iran show clear progress over the weekend, demand for gold will decrease. 2. If the Asian stock market opens strong, investors will move money from gold to the stock market. 3. If the baht strengthens, gold prices in baht terms will decrease even if the dollar price remains unchanged. Summary of Thai gold price forecast for Monday, May 25, 2026: The selling price of gold bars is forecast to be between 69,500-70,200 baht per baht weight. The selling price of gold ornaments is forecast to be between 70,300-71,000 baht per baht weight. There is a 60% probability that prices will move sideways within this range. There is a 25% probability that prices will rise above the upper limit if there are positive factors from the Middle East or a weakening dollar. And there is a 15% probability that prices will fall below the lower limit if there is good news about peace negotiations or a strong stock market recovery. Before I give my advice, I want you to understand the big picture first, because making good decisions about gold requires referencing both short-term and long-term perspectives. The long-term structural factors that continue to support gold prices are as follows: First, central bank gold purchases. Central banks worldwide, especially from emerging economies like China, India, and Poland, are continuously accumulating gold reserves to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. According to JP Morgan's forecast, global central banks will buy a total of 585 tons of gold per quarter this year, which is a historically high level. Demand from this source is a long-term support that is unlikely to disappear. Second, de-dollarization. Many major powers are trying to reduce the proportion of dollars in their international reserves, and gold is the primary asset replacing it. This trend shows no signs of slowing down. Third, demand for gold ETFs. In the past, ETFs investing in gold have seen continuous inflows, indicating that institutional and retail investors worldwide remain interested in gold in the long term. Fourth, a crisis in gold exploration. Data from Gold Broker indicates that although global gold production in 2025 exceeded 3,600 tons, a record high, the discovery of new gold deposits has significantly decreased. This means that in the future, gold supply may not be sufficient to meet demand, which will be a factor driving prices up in the long term. The picture from all these factors is that even though short-term gold prices may be volatile, the long-term outlook remains positive. After I have shared all this information with you, I want to give my final advice with sincerity. For those who are thinking of buying gold on Monday, if your goal is long-term investment over several years, the current situation where prices are about 19% below their peak may be a good opportunity to accumulate from a long-term perspective, as leading banks still forecast prices to rise in the future. However, you should buy in a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) manner, or buy gradually and consistently, and do not invest all at once. If you want to speculate in the short term, the volatility next week may be an opportunity, but you must have a clear stop-loss set and should observe the market direction in the early morning of Monday before making a decision. For those who are thinking of selling gold on Monday, if you bought gold at a low price and want to take profits, that opportunity still exists. But if you want to sell because you are worried that prices will fall further, you should first check the opening price on Monday morning, as signals from the global market are not yet clear enough to confirm a long-term downtrend. For those who do not have gold yet and want to start investing, long-term data indicates that gold still has potential, but starting when prices are volatile requires caution. It is recommended to start with small amounts, study the market thoroughly, and do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Finally, I want to remind you again that everything I have said in this video is an analysis and forecast based on the information available as of May 23, 2026. The gold market has high uncertainty and can change direction rapidly due to unexpected news or events. Please use this information as only one component of your decision-making, not as any investment advice. That is all I wanted to share with you today, including the Thai gold price decrease of 200 baht on Saturday, May 23, the global gold price movement in the range of $4,481-$4,570 throughout the week, the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a 33% chance of a cut in June, the ongoing US-Iran conflict situation, and the forecasts from Commerzbank targeting $5,400 and JP Morgan boldly mentioning $6,300 by the end of this year. And for Monday, May 25, 2026, I predict that Thai gold bar prices will open in the range of 69,500 to 70,200 baht, with the primary tendency to fluctuate within this range, depending on the direction of the Asian market and news from the Middle East over the weekend. Follow this channel daily for gold price updates and the latest market analysis. And if this video has been beneficial to you, please press like and subscribe so you don't miss important information next time. See you in the next video. Goodbye.