Transcription
Iran, caught between a war with America and a ceasefire, now appears to be in trouble within its own borders. Reports have emerged that there isn't good coordination between Iranian President Pesishkia and the IRGC. Earlier, there were also reports of Pesishia's resignation. Then Iran denies it. But what is happening in Iran, and can America increase its interference in Iran's internal affairs? However, whatever is happening in Iran, this world is trying to recover from the Hormuz crisis. How important is this for the sentiments of the entire world, and what signals are Iran's internal conditions giving? Today, we will discuss this. First, watch this report. I will return with the guests. Who controls power in Iran? President Masoud Pezeshkian or Iran's Revolutionary Guards? This question is important because in the ongoing talks regarding the ceasefire with America, apart from the Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, no other familiar face is visible. As for President Masoud Pezeshkian, reports of his resignation have been making headlines for the past several hours. According to reports, President Masoud Pezeshkian has sent his resignation to the country's Supreme Leader, Mustafa Khamenei. According to the report, Pezeshkian wrote in his letter that the country's power is now completely under the control of the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. It should be noted that since the war began with America and Israel in February, his government has not been involved in major decisions, and actual control has gone into the hands of the military leadership. However, the Iranian President's office has denied these reports and released a new video of Pezeshkian from Iranian media handles as proof of his being in office. Whatever the truth of President Pezeshkian's resignation, it has become common knowledge that the Revolutionary Guards now have dominance in Iran. That is, the grip of the completely military and hardline military faction is firm. Is this the factor that is proving to be an obstacle in finalizing the deal with America? On the other hand, Trump has already claimed that Iran's new leadership is very sensible. He wants to accept American conditions for a peace agreement. So, is it the dominance of the Revolutionary Guards that is preventing agreement on conditions related to ballistic missiles, the blockade of Hormuz, and the nuclear program with America? Meanwhile, American attacks continue in Hormuz. The American army, in a released statement, claimed to have carried out self-defense attacks on some locations from Qeshm Island. This was a response to Iran's aggressive stance. This means that the confrontation between Iran and America has not lessened in any way. Now the question is, how much longer will it take to accept America's conditions, and who will put the final signature on it? The elected government or the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards. Bureau Report, Zee Media. Ambassador Sushil Singhal has joined us. A well-known expert on former diplomatic international affairs. Ambassador Singhal, good evening. A very, very warm welcome to you. Professor Swaran Singh has joined us. A well-known expert, commentator, and columnist on international affairs, Jawaharlal Nehru University. A very, very warm welcome to you, Professor Swaran Singh, on our show. Ambassador Singhal, please tell us a bit, sir, how important is this twist, as we are reading some very explosive reports, in which the sidelining of civilians by the IRGC is mentioned, and the report of submitting resignation to the Supreme Leader is before all of us. Although it has been denied, what is going on behind the scenes, sir, in Iran? Well, Deepak, when we talk about their power struggle, we need to look a bit at their history to see how the IRGC came into existence. The IRGC, in a way, was the personal army of the Supreme Leader, who is now the Supreme Leader, sorry, [clears throat] Mustafa Khamenei's father created it, and it was his personal army, and they executed orders as per his command. The civilian government had no control from the beginning. Now, after the change of power on February 28, when his son Mustafa Khamenei was made the Supreme Leader, the news at that time was that the other leadership, apart from the IRGC, was not interested in making him the leader. They wanted a softer leadership, but the IRGC succeeded in making him the leader. From here, I think it is evident that the role of the IRGC has reversed somewhat. Earlier, they were under the Supreme Leader, and since they created him, their control over him has increased. And this is the power struggle we are seeing continuously now because the IRGC wants to dictate all decisions related to national security, war strategy, the policy for the Strait of Hormuz, and some foreign policy. If you noticed, even during the war, the statements made by the civilian leadership had to be changed. Many times, it was a clear indication that the IRGC's say was increasing, and their grip on the administration had strengthened. Now, reports like these, which are being denied, mean that something must have happened, unless this is propaganda warfare by the Western media or Western countries or the USA, which I doubt, because something is happening there. How much is happening is a different matter. Both sides have denied it. But when we look at the statements, the President of Russia, he has withdrawn a couple of times, and normally he is known to be a soft power, and his objective has always been to improve Iran's economic condition. For that, he is ready to compromise, but the IRGC is on a completely different track; they are not ready. That is why we sometimes see contradictory statements coming from there. And earlier, when there were reports from Iran, it took them quite some time to respond to President Trump's statements. So, if this is true, as you are saying, it is clearly visible that there is a power struggle there, but the upper hand at the moment appears to be with the IRGC, whose Brigadier Vahid is considered a hardliner, and the way attacks and counter-attacks are happening, these skirmishes, even after the ceasefire, are a clear indication that the IRGC has a strong hand at the moment. Absolutely. So, this is indeed surprising, but not entirely unexpected, because from the beginning, it was being said that once things settle down, we will see different dimensions and dynamics of the internal conflict and power struggle within Iran. And this is one of them. But these ongoing efforts, Professor Swaran Singh, sir, to reach a complete deal with America, how much of an obstacle can this become if the relations between the IRGC and Pezeshkian are not good? Deepak ji, if there is an internal conflict within Iran, as is being speculated in Western countries, especially, then it is obvious that moving forward from a ceasefire towards peace proposals will become somewhat complicated, because creating consensus within the country due to internal conflict can be a bit difficult. But there are a couple of things that are important for us to understand. That is, in any country, if you forget Iran for a moment, if there has been continuous military conflict for more than 90 days with America, the most powerful military force in the world, and with Israel, which has the most military strength in its region, then such an internal conflict is possible in any country due to the immense damage Iran has suffered. And behind that, you see, for about 30 or 40 years, economic sanctions of various kinds have been imposed, and their economic system is in some difficulty. And on top of that, the destruction that has occurred, any country would face internal conflict, which would not be an extraordinary matter. Thirdly, you see, the way this revolutionary Iran was created in 1969, 79, since then, the President was not the center of all power. The Ayatollah was the center of power. Now, as has been said, the current Ayatollah was perhaps made by the IRGC, and he is mostly not visible in public. The most visible in public are the Speaker of Parliament, Balekhab, and the Foreign Minister, Agasi Abbas Araghchi. So, the President was not very powerful even before, and now he is not very visible in the war, and obviously, due to the war, the tension, conflict, and destruction that has occurred, there has been a continuous change in the leadership of the IRGC, and in this environment, the leadership of the new young people tends to be more hardline. That is why it is believed that perhaps President Pezeshkian wants to end the war in some way, so that the economic sanctions are lifted by America, so that the common people in Iran can have some relief and ease, and people can start living their daily lives comfortably. And the IRGC, in this environment, is perhaps continuously in a mood of confrontation. But one piece of good news that has just come is that the Prime Minister of Japan, Se Takaychi, tweeted that he had a long phone conversation with President Bajaskia this evening. So, this means that Bajaskia is not completely out of power, preparing to leave, and wherever he gets an opportunity, he is continuously contributing. And I would like to add one small thing at the end: what is the complete source of this news? It is very important to understand. One is Iran International, based in London, which is a television and digital news channel. It was established in 2017, and today it is a competitor to the Persian service of the BBC and the Persian service of Voice of America. It has a very wide outreach. People in Iran and Iranians worldwide listen to it. But there have been continuous reports about its funding and financing from behind, that it is funded by Saudi Arabia, and some Saudi individuals are on its board of directors, etc., according to reports. So, is there any intention behind deliberately spreading such news? You may recall that in 2022, Iran declared this Iran International a terrorist organization, and although many Western countries criticized it, where the news comes from is also interesting in itself. But I believe that given the current situation, internal conflict is not impossible. And if there is internal conflict, then extending the ceasefire and, look, how weak the ceasefire is. Attacks start again and again. So, extending the ceasefire will become even more difficult. So, it is in the interest of Western countries that they try not to bring more instability into Iran's internal politics, so that it can be resolved through negotiation. And President Trump is continuously trying to get rid of this war in some way. And if he wants that, then at least Western countries should not contribute to further increasing the internal conflict there, to fuel it further. So, I think stability within Iran is necessary so that the ceasefire can be extended towards peace proposals, so that there is stability and the war ends there. Absolutely, sir. But look at this faction. When America and Israel attacked Iran, this is not today's faction. There, the hardliners and the progressive front, the entire politics of Iran, we see it divided. Even now, the military and the deep state, the IRGC, the hardliners, Ahmad Vahidi, who is the Interior Minister there, has been a senior commander of the IRGC. He is considered the main face of the deep state. And they want that the civil government's rights should be continuously reduced. The accusations against them are the same as what Pezeshkian is making, and Hussein Salimi, the chief commander of the IRGC, although he reports to the Supreme Leader, their agenda is to keep the civilian government as a rubber stamp. And the second faction, which is called the reformist and progressive faction, which people like Masoud Pezeshkian and Javad Zarif are leading. But the Supreme Leader's office, sir, at this time, Ambassador Singhal, sir, as long as Ayatollah Khamenei was alive, it did not seem that the ideological or political factions there would be able to go beyond the gaze or supervision of the Supreme Leader's office, which holds the ultimate veto power. But about Mustafa Khamenei, one cannot say that much completely. So, can we assume at this time that the deep state, the IRGC, is being listened to more by the Supreme Leader, because repeatedly Pezeshkian here wants a peace treaty and sanction relief, but today the news is something else, and tomorrow it is something else. So, can we assume at this time that Khamenei's office is more under the influence of the deep state and the IRGC? Deepak, as I said, because their power structure, after 1979, the Supreme Leader there had ultimate power; the entire center of power was the Supreme Leader. According to their system, the civilian government is a facade. And as I said, the IRGC is their own private army, their own people. So, now, because, as I explained, the way the Supreme Leader was elected and the Supreme Leader is not even coming before the public. So far, since his election, selection, selection, he has not released any audio, only written statements are coming in his name. So, his influence, in a way, I would say, is a bit less, and because there is no visibility of his own, whatever the reason, some say he is injured, some say he is not coming due to security reasons, but whatever the reason, no audio or video has been released publicly yet. And the way their election, selection happened, it was very clear that the IRGC had a big role in it because they were already close to the IRGC, because when he was handling his father's work, he was working with them. So, at this time, whatever is happening there, as per the news coming out, it shows that the IRGC's influence is very high. And the civilian government, which represents the soft line, the soft side, who want peace, who want the war in Iran to at least stop on good terms, and they do not want to be very hard, unlike what the IRGC is demanding, not ready to change their position at all. So, it is visible that there is a struggle between them at this time, and decision-making has become very complicated. Earlier, whatever the Supreme Leader said was done. But now, since the Supreme Leader is not visible, we do not know what is happening behind the scenes. But it seems that three or four power centers have emerged there, and everyone is trying to gain dominance in this situation, given how bad the situation is. And at this time, the IRGC faction, it seems, we do not know the internal details, but it seems their say is more at this time. Therefore, the peace talks are also likely to become more complicated. Absolutely. Now, Trump's "Art of the Deal" strategy, Trump has possibly sensed this internal weakness of Iran. That is why he repeatedly uses terms like "Iran is seriously fractured" on social media. And taking advantage of this, Trump is making the conditions even stricter. He is saying that Iran should end its nuclear program forever. He knows that reaching a consensus within Iran is very difficult at this time. So, he wants to maintain his maximalist position more firmly. Instead of appeasing the Pezeshkian faction, he is actually pouring fuel on the fire. And the IRGC considers this surrender. That is why you must have seen that Iran has also sidelined the peace deal and the IRGC has carried out some attacks, and in response, America's actions are also ongoing. Now, in such a situation, Professor Swaran Singh, sir, what are the possibilities, in days, weeks, or months, for the resolution of the crisis? See, President Trump himself and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, have said that this should be discussed in weeks, not months. This is their assessment, but I do not think we will see the matter resolved in a few weeks because, you see, Iran's stance is continuously hardening. It is openly saying that no agreement has been reached. It is openly saying that the ceasefire has only been extended for 60 days. And the voice coming from Tehran is that there has been no discussion on whether Iran will build nuclear weapons or open the Strait of Hormuz. And secondly, Deepak ji, this is a new development: for several weeks now, the IRGC has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. That is, the trade and movement of ships in the entire region have been successfully blocked. Very few ships are able to pass, and perhaps that too with the IRGC's permission. So, the IRGC, which was created as a different kind of military force from the beginning, Article 150 of their constitution, it was organized to protect the Islamic Revolution. So, because they have such a tool now, they have continuously shown how the IRGC can control the Strait of Hormuz, and to some extent, I sometimes say that perhaps Iran does not even need nuclear weapons with this new weapon it has acquired. Because what is the point of deterring another enemy, stopping them from doing something or not doing something? So, if the entire region is being held captive, then this is a new weapon that comes into Iran's hands, and into whose hands does it come? Into the IRGC's hands. So, because of this, the continuous talks, in this war, which is now between America and Iran, especially since Israel is more engaged in Gaza and Lebanon, in this war, the IRGC becomes even more powerful from Iran's side. Because the Strait of Hormuz, due to which, you see, America's stance has continuously changed, is the work of the IRGC. So, the IRGC becomes even more powerful, and President Trump cannot negotiate with the IRGC. He has to negotiate with the President. So, if you see the President being isolated, being pushed to the margins, and the actual decisions being made by the IRGC, then I am saying that the possibilities of ending this war become even less. Because if the President does not have much decision-making power, and even the powerful Khamenei's son is perhaps not that powerful. So, the power is entirely with the IRGC, and President Trump will not negotiate with the IRGC, and if he does not negotiate, then this mutual blaming, this entire atmosphere will continue. I do not think you will see the war being completely pacified in a few weeks, as is often said by America. So, this internal confusion or turmoil, whatever you call it, becomes an even more difficult problem for ending this war. Therefore, it is in everyone's interest that there be good coordination there. Absolutely, sir. You have made a very important point, and you will at least understand one aspect of the story, which is that Iran no longer needs nuclear weapons. Because the practical experience Iran has gained in controlling the situation in Hormuz is now its biggest weapon. And another layer is added to this: this weapon is now with the IRGC. The other end of this was connected by Ambassador Singhal, sir, about how the weaknesses of Khamenei's office and the complete monopoly of the IRGC are in place. As far as policy decisions are concerned at this time. So, you can understand that this is why the US President repeatedly says that there are certain powers there that want to negotiate with us, and who are those powers, and who is stopping them within Iran, and if these circumstances continue, when will a situation be visible there? So, I think the picture becomes quite clear. That is why it was important to discuss Iran's internal situation today. Thank you very much, Ambassador Singhal, sir, for taking the time. Professor Swaran Singh, sir, thank you very much for your time. [Music]