Transcription
Hey guys, I hope you're doing well. My name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto.
I've noticed quite a few large accounts on X. I'm not sure if also on YouTube, but definitely on X with half a million followers, a million followers are still making uninformed drama kind of posts about the subject of global M2 as it correlates to Bitcoin. And the reason I say drama or clickbaity or uninformed is because eight months ago in May of 2025, before the top was in for Bitcoin, I made a video which got over 2 million views on X describing how there's a phenomenon whereby Bitcoin has decoupled every single cycle the past three cycles from global M2 when it approached its up. And so we looked at that and we thought, okay, that could be what's happening. Let's keep an eye on it.
Now, none of these accounts out there are talking about that. I don't think any of them even know that that phenomenon exists. They just keep mindlessly sharing the same chart over and over. There's no understanding going into their posts when we know that the decoupling indicates a Bitcoin top is near. And it played out yet again for the fourth cycle in a row. So these guys are mindless robots. They don't know what they're talking about.
So what I've done is I've gone back through that video from 8 months ago. This video was from May 2025 prior to the top. And this wasn't the first time I was talking about this phenomenon. This was just the biggest video I did on it. And I've referred to it many times. But what I've done is I've gone back through the video and edited it so that it's very concise and it gets to the point and that's what I'm going to share with you right now. So keep in mind this video was recorded prior to the Bitcoin bull run top. Okay, here you go. Enjoy. If you want to watch the full video, you can see the link in the reply below.
Hey guys, my name is Colin. This is Colin Talks Crypto. This video I'm going to talk about global M2 as it relates to Bitcoin and how I specifically will avoid being misguided by a global M2 line that perhaps in the future could keep going up while Bitcoin goes down. Remember there are non-correlated periods and in 2021 that exact scenario happened where Global M2 kept going up and if you kept holding you would have lost money because Bitcoin tanked sharply and it missed the top. Global M2 missed the top. Everyone else is just giving their worship and praise to the Global M2 line. And I have a solution to help you and help me avoid being deceived by a global M2 line that maybe misses the Bitcoin price top.
Quick shout out to um Ralph Paul who really is the as far as I'm aware the creator of this correlation or the first person that really brought it to mainstream awareness. I think that he did the first step and then when I started covering it it just exploded and now everyone's talking about it. But I did not invent this correlation and I just want to make that clear. A lot of people are talking about this. A freaking lot of people. people will correctly point to the 2021 top and say, well, hey, if we had just followed the global M2 money supply, we would have been wrong because the global M2 kept going up even after the double top in 2021 for Bitcoin. And so, if you had been relying on Global M2, you would have kept holding and then you would have been wrecked because Global M2 kept going up while Bitcoin went down sharply. And I have an answer to that.
So first of all, I agree that the correlation of global M2 to Bitcoin is likely to break. By definition, there will be 20% non-correlated periods. That could very well include the absolute top just like last cycle. I think it would be naive to discount the possibility of it failing to call the final top as too many people are expecting it and it did fail last cycle. So I think we should consider that. Furthermore though, because we don't want to get caught off guard for the next bull run top, we don't want to be watching global M2 keep climbing higher and it could do this and then Bitcoin makes like a top or double top or whatever whatever formation it makes for its ultimate price peak and then it heads down. But then what if M2 keeps going up? That would screw everybody over, right? The chance of M2 correlation breaking near the cycle top is why I would not rely on the global M2 correlation alone as a top indicator.
So TLDDR is I'm going to use global M2 to guide me toward where the top might be. And then when other indicators start heating up and get overheated, that's when I will take profits regardless if M2 keeps predicting more gains ahead. Just like in 2021, right? We don't want to get caught with our pants down holding all our assets, watching M2 climb while Bitcoin's tanking because maybe that clue was present on another index or another indicator or another metric. And if we had simply opened our eyes to a diversification of metrics, we could have seen that coming.
So I'm saying this right now as sort of a preemptive defense against what I consider to be an inevitable outcome when eventually the M2 does decouple. Like we haven't had a decorrelation for about 30 plus days right now. You could even say 60 days. The last 60 days it's been tightly correlated. All this chart has been heavily highly correlated. So it's kind of reasonable to expect that perhaps coming up in the near future we may have some heavily non-correlated periods. We could get a month where it just deviates completely. Or maybe that's the price top, right? Like maybe Bitcoin puts in its price top. M2 keeps going up here. But actually right here was the price top. I don't know. I'm just making this up. Right. That could be that would be a similar scenario to back in 2021. So I'm just painting the picture of how it's almost like we could be saving up some days of non-correlation that have yet to rear their head.
But how do we combat defensively against being surprised by that decorrelation? Well, we go back to the post and diversification of metrics. Global M2 is very much a macro indicator and the surgical precision which is already very difficult required to time a price top is better done by a diversification of other metrics. So I just want to be very clear because I can see people rearing their heads when in the future we do hit a two to four week period of decoupling of the M2 chart. people, some of the more toxic people or people who maybe don't have an understanding of this or come out of the woodwork. But I'm saying this ahead of time because I expect that to happen. I'm saying this now before decoupling and non-correlative periods happen because there'll be people who come out of the woodwork, especially newbies, especially non-experienced people. When those newbies come out of the woodwork and say, "Haha, the offset was wrong. You were wrong for this reason." Or, "It's broken entirely. It never works." Or, "It failed to call it top in 2021. That's why it's failing again." and you were wrong and this whole time you've misled everybody. Those people will absolutely rear their heads. They're ugly heads. And I'm here to say that I already saw this coming, the non-correlation and the toxic individuals. And I'm saying that now before it happens so I can show you how on top of this I am. And I can cut this part of the video out and reshare it just to back myself up in the future when people like that do rear their heads.
So I want to be very clear. I'm not saying that this predictive M2 correlation in Bitcoin will last forever. I'm just saying that it exists now and has existed for several years. Several years is a long time. So if we can get just another several months of usefulness out of it, then great. And we can use other metrics to guide us along the way. That's the key. Diversification of metrics. Do not rely on one metric. Do not put all our eggs in the basket, the M2 global money supply basket. I think that's how you get led astray. And I think a lot of people will get led astray because everyone's copying and pasting this content and they're not paying attention. They're going to be led astray chasing the M2 higher when Bitcoin has topped when the M2 correlation finally does break. It's inevitable. I'm telling you right now, it's going to break and it's inevitable. Whether it's just that 20% or whether it feels like a longer period like back in 2021 maybe it's a twomonthlong stretch of non-correlation which is enough time for the entire market to collapse right like that could happen.
So when M2 correlation finally does break, it doesn't suddenly mean that it was wrong entirely or that it never works. Okay? It just means that the correlation never existed 100% of the time in the first place, which is what I've been saying for months now, but I'm I'm going to hit this point home with a hammer. All right? We already know that that could happen and we should expect it. Thus, Global M2 should not be used without other metrics in order to verify where we are in the cycle. These are just my two cents after spending a lot of time with this subject and I hope that this is the value that I bring to the space.
Like a lot of people copy and paste the chart. A lot of people pretend like it's their own content without maybe really knowing what they're even talking about. It's really easy to share an image that someone else creates or to quickly recreate your image and then share it as your own content, which is what I see a lot of these um social media personalities doing. But an example was when the India M2 was showing a huge spike and everyone ran with it and I didn't because I put a little more thought into it. Those people were just kind of the robots like showing the data without thinking about it or understanding how it could possibly be wrong. And I was the one who said, you know, I'm going to hold off on that. I'm going to remove India because I think there's possibly an error in the data. And that turned out to be correct. So, I'm not trying to overly pat myself on the back, but I'm trying to paint the picture that there's a lot of copy pasters out there, a lot of people who have enormous social media followings, millions of subscribers in some cases, and don't really necessarily have the depth of understanding.
If all I did was rely on this chart in front of you, I feel like we could be mistaken. We could be led astray where Bitcoin maybe begins its bare market and global M2 keeps going up. I think that's very possible. And I think that's where if anyone's going to get tricked this cycle, that's probably where they're going to get tricked. They're going to get tricked thinking that M2 goes to the moon forever and Bitcoin is suddenly crashing and they're going to just keep holding because M2 told them to keep holding. I am looking at the big picture and I'm trying to really cover my ass, make sure I don't get shafted by something which is legitimate. It's a completely legitimate concern. Global M2 may deceive us at some point.
Hope you enjoyed my video. Follow me on X, Colin T Crypto. That's one L. I make content there every day. If you're not following me on X, you are missing content. Have a great day.