Transcription
New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Super Bowl 60. Everything you need to know in 15 minutes. If you've never been here before, welcome. My name is Max. I make analytical breakdowns looking at the scheme behind the game instead of just numbers and stats you see on the screen to give you a unique edge. Without further ado, let's get into this breakdown.
As always, in the description are links to my socials, Instagram, Tik Tok, Twitter. Make sure you are following on there, same handle as it is on here, so you don't miss any additional content. This game is going to be fun, guys. Let's talk about this Patriots defense for them and the Seahawks. I did a little bit of a deep dive to try to find some playoff trends outside of their normal data outliers and trends and I found a couple for each team.
In the playoffs, the New England Patriots have a ton of man-to-man, a pretty big increase in terms of the number of snaps or percentage of snaps they've been playing. But I want to ask you, this is the question I asked myself. If you're gonna play the Denver Broncos with a backup quarterback, if you're gonna play the Houston Texans without Nico Collins and you're gonna play the Los Angeles Chargers, are you just playing them man more because they're inferior passing attacks? They don't have those guys. Personally, I I would too. I wouldn't allow an offense to dink and dunk down the field. I challenge them. I think that's what the Patriots are doing.
Now, Seattle is by far the best offense they're going to play in a long time, but by far the best offense they've played in the playoffs. They also have an uptick in middlefield open. We've talked about the Patriots like above average in man-to-man all year, balanced in terms of middlefield open. Uh but there's a slight increase in outwide target rate allowed. They're target out of the back field less. Still at a top 10 rate overall, but in the games against in the playoffs, targeted out of the back field less, which is interesting because they're still giving up decent production to running backs. Every starting running back has had 19 plus receiving yards against the Patriots in the each of the playoff games. The other really interesting thing here is they have eight takeaways in three games. Eight takeaways. Now again, it's CJ Strad. It's uh Jared Stdum. Like this stuff is not surprising, but Seattle zero turnovers in two games. You'd think, okay, the Seahawks are taking care of the football. It's what they do. It's not what they do. They actually led the NFL in giveaways in the regular season. That I think is the biggest edge in this game. I think with two weeks to prepare, the Patriots have a pretty solid edge there.
In terms of data outliers, in the regular season, they allowed the fifth most running back receptions. You go look at the game logs against the New England Patriots in the playoffs as well. Like we talked about, there is some production from the running back position through the air. Nothing super crazy, but RJ Harvey 4 for 22, Woody Marks two for 19, and Kamani Vidal two for 20. Again, no Mario Hampton didn't really play in this game, so Kamani Dal was a starter. You go back up, it's still pretty solid production across the running backs they've been facing. And the receiving heavy running backs have also had pretty solid performances. Like you can see Ajian Robinson 8 for 50, a Dylan Samson 5 for 29 and Tony Pard 43, Alvin Chimera 45. Like the guys who specialize in the receiving world at the running back position will produce against the Patriots. Again, [snorts] above average in man target out of the back field at a top 10 rate.
Now Sam Darnold is throwing out wide at a top 10 rate. You got JSN, it makes sense. But the Patriots again in the playoffs have a slight increase in outwide target rate allowed. The way I view this is if the Patriots truly are going to play more man against the Seahawks, which I don't know if they will. I think they will. I don't know for sure. It's going to be Christian Gonzalez and JSN, it's going to be Marcus Jones and Rasheed Shahed. What's interesting is Shahed and Cup, I believe in the Yeah, they were exactly equal in terms of the routes run. If they're not, it's extremely close from slot uh compared out wide. cup playing a little bit more than Shahit, but they're running the same amount of outwide routes. I think the Patriots would be making a grave grave grave mistake to put somebody without Marcus Jones's speed on Rasheed Shahed. Meaning, I think Marcus Jones in man-to-man situations, who's traditionally the inside nickel is just going to follow Shahed. The edge to me here is Cooper Cup on Carlton Davis. If I'm Sam Darnold, I like the matchup and I'm trying to take advantage of it, especially because Davis can get a little handsy. Cooper Cup is a technician. I think there's an edge there for Seattle.
Now against man, JSN is the number one target. The explosives, the frequency, you name it. However, his frequency actually decreases against man. He's targeted more often against zone. That Rams game, heavy heavy zone team, whatever he had a lot of yards and thought like he was targeted more throughout the season against zone in terms of a frequency percentage basis. He's going to get man-to-man. He's going to get one-on- ones and he's going to take advantage of it. Like that's that's the reality with JSN and middlefield open. He's also going to take advantage of it, too. The Patriots don't really have consistent tells in coverage, but when you get these middlefield open coverages, the tight ends get an uptick. If Elijah Aoyo is active, that's a guy to watch. And then George Alani had a pretty pretty good usage last week, you look at the snap count, you look at his production as well. Like, he is a part of this offense. He's not just a backup stepping in because uh Walker's taking more snaps from Charbanet. No, he's a part of the offense. He had 23 snaps last week. That's 34%. and he had three catches as well. Nothing super crazy on the ground game for George Alani. Three carries for four yards, but three catches for 27. And because the Patriots are so susceptible to receiving production from the running back position, I would be looking at him to make an impact. I think Walker is the guy to watch number one. But George Alani too outside of JSN and Cooper Cup, keep your eye on him.
In terms of the run game, the Seahawks are top 10 in zone rate. They're above average in terms of zone efficiency, but bottom five in success rate, meaning they're not good at staying ahead of the chains, but they can hit home runs. You're looking for explosives. Kenneth Walker has had a 15 plus yard run in both playoff games. He is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL. I will die on the hill, at least right now at this point in time. He's a top 10 running back in the NFL, borderline, top five. He's extremely talented and he can hit home runs. But the Patriots match up pretty well on the ground against them. They're good against the run. The only thing is they're average in terms of efficiency. They're great. They're great at keeping people behind the chains defensively and the Seahawks can't stay ahead of the chains offensively.
Now, I look at the Patriots defense who's average in efficiency. Seahawks are above average in efficiency. Could we see some home run runs? I'm not telling you Kenneth Walker is going to, you know, rip off 10 yard run after 10 yard run, but does somebody misfit? Is there a bad alignment? Does the motion from the Kubiaak system potentially get the backers moving in the direction they don't want to? That's what I would be looking at for Kenneth Walker. Again, the tale of Milton Williams, you know how bad there are they are without him. With him, they are significantly better. I mean, you can go look at the rush production against the New England Patriots the past however long. I can show you the games with Milton Williams as well, and you can really see the difference here. But the past playoff games, uh, no running back over 37 yards. I was RJ Harvey. And again, this was a moderately close game. moderately close game, moderately close game. Like I it's not like they are uh blowing teams out and just running away with it and teams have to abandon the run. No, like they are running. And then this game against the uh Miami Dolphins was the first game with Milton Williams back after the six-game absence. Bruce Hall 100 yards, Derrick Henry 100 yards, James Cook 100 yards, Chase Brown 100 yards, Deon Singleary, not much, but he had 12 for 68 on the ground. Then Bree Hall, this is the game that Milton Williams got injured in 14 for 58. So, Patriots Runy is way better with Milt Williams. He's been very very good. I still think and I I'll say this, I might say it after Super Bowl 62. I think he's been the best player of any any team in the playoffs. Like, I think that's been the best player across the league in the playoffs. I think you make the argument for JSN, too, but Mil Williams has been exceptional. Watch Kenneth Walker. Watch Rashid Jahed as the home run hitter against Marcus Marcus Jones, obviously. And watch Cooper Cup. He's been here before. He had a crazy what five years ago against the Bengals. Like experience matters in these games which is why again Mil is a guy who I think makes a difference too. But Cooper Cup probably has the best man-to-man matchup. Assuming the Patriots play more man. That to me is the edge.
Let's talk Seahawks defense. Now they're not really playing a ton of middlefield closed. I feel like every time I talk about the Seahawks, I talk about Mike McDonald. It's middlefield open. That's what you're going to get. But when the Seahawks play middlefield closed, they've been bad. Like really bad. They've been struggling and now they're targeted out of the backfield even more than they were in the regular season. Now you can see regular season they were targeted out of the backfield in the highest rate in the league. Like teams were thrown in the running back position at a ridiculous rate. Two games, four takeaways. New England five giveaways, but multiple fumbles dropped and picked up by offensive linemen. If you guys didn't check out that video, make sure you do. And dropped interceptions. I think a lot of people forget about the Talanoa Huanga interception drop. Believe it was in the first half, maybe first quarter against the Broncos. That was a pretty big play. That was a monumental play that was left out there.
Now, the Seahawks, as good as their defense is, most running back receptions allowed in the league regular season. Fifth most tight end recept receptions allowed regular season. Few yards per carry, second fewest rush yards per game. You can't run the Seahawks. That's the reality of it. Teams try to and actually last week, you know, it it wasn't that bad. I thought the Rams had some decent success on the ground, but at the end of the day, like Blake Cororm not to 60. I I don't know if this I don't think the Seahawks have allowed a hundred yard rusher this season. Yeah, they haven't. I think the highest was Jonathan Taylor. Uh Kyron Williams, maybe. Let's check. I'll keep scrolling down. Where's the Jonathan Taylor game? Uh no, it was Ken Williams when he had 12 for 91 in week 11. They haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher. Like they are stopping teams up on the ground. Now coverage wise, top 10 zone, they're extremely middlefield, open heavy, and they're targeted out of the back field at the highest rate in the league. To me, the big key here is the tight end usage because the Patriots, I think, have an advantage in heavier personnel. I think when you force the Seahawks to their base packages, the nickel with Nicki Manori, like I think when you force them to stay lighter and you match with bigger people, they struggle a little bit more. I'm not saying they struggle, it's a good defense, but that's how you can attack them, especially in zone, the play action game. That's where I think the tight end usage could come in because you do look at these games against the Seahawks guys. I know this defense is so good. They've struggled against tight ends. 62 yards to Kobe Parkinson. 59 to Jake Tundas. Nobody I talk about this every single time with the Panthers. Panthers don't use tight ends. KD with 29. 20 plus for each Rams tight end in week 16. Nothing really for Tyler Warren. Kyle Piss 90 yards. TJ Hogson 59 yards. Look at this. Titans 40 plus for multiple tight ends. Trey McBride 100 yard game. Now, Hunter Henry and even Austin Hooper, I'm I have a video coming out about Austin Hooper. Make sure you're locked in on that. Like, they are not dynamic enough pass catchers where I think they can put up that 100redyard game with a Trey McBride production or a Brock Bowers type production. But I do think with multiple weeks to prepare, Josh McDaniels will get these guys right and again leverage that 12 personnel. The Seahawks haven't seen a ton of it. They've been playing ahead. They've been forcing teams to throw the ball against them. And when they have seen it, again, they're not struggling, but they're not playing as well. I think that's the edge for the Patriots here. I really do.
Now, in terms of the target scheme data, Diggs is number one against zone in middlefield Open. This should be the Diggs game. But Tayvon Henderson is targeted much more frequently. middlefield open huge number but zone compared to Raandre now it's really difficult because you look at the game logs for the New England Patriots Raandre has been exceptional like exceptional he's been so good he's been dominating the backfield 125 plus in the first playoff game 81 scrimmage yards on 20 touches here then nothing really against a good Denver run defense but Trayvon Henderson he touched the ball three times against Denver he played four snaps against Denver That is a red flag if you don't have two weeks to prepare for this game. Trayvon Henderson's explosive ability to me is a little too much for the Patriots to throw aside in the biggest game of the year. They're scheming something up for him. I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's in the pass game, if it's in the run game. He will be utilized, I think, in this game.
Now, for Drake May, he's throwing out wide in the top 10 rate. The Seahawks aren't allowing a ton about wide targets, but out of the back field at a top 10, top 12 rate, excuse me. Again, that is name of the game, Trayvon Henderson or Andre Stevenson. Patriots are top 10 in man gap efficiency, but like we talked about, the Seahawks defense is the second best man gap team in the NFL. They're top 10 in defensive success rate. They are exceptional against the run. You're not going to be able to run them. Honestly, I don't think you're going to be able to run on either team if I'm being transparent with you. The big edge here though, I think, for the Patriots has to come in the pass game. And it's not just the tight end position. Look at some of these wide receivers against these guys. They have not been great against dominant alpha number ones. Now, do the Patriots have that? I'm not fully convinced. I don't I don't think Diggs is that. And if he's going to have most of his production from the slot, he's going to get the Devon Witherspoon's shadow. I would take Seattle's side on that. But you just go look at these dominant outweigh guys like Puka, Devonte Adams, Puka again, like these guys who have been outside are producing with good quarterback play. You scroll back and look at some of these games outside of the 49ers, they they dominate the 49ers. This is Bryce Young at quarterback. This was Philip Rivers at quarterback. If I'm not mistaken, this was Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Week 13, I believe, was Max Bromer. Let's check. Let's double check. I don't want to give you guys misinformation. But what I'm trying to tell you right now is the Seattle Seahawks have not played awesome quarterbacks. Yeah, it was Max Bros. Threw four picks against these guys. The Seattle Seahawks have not played exceptional quarterbacks the second half of the year if we're being real. And I think the Patriots get a lot of flak for their schedule. Look at the list of these guys. Again, Stafford bowled out against them. Stafford balled out against them. They're great against the 49ers. I don't know what it is. They rock against the 49ers. But even week 11, Stafford didn't do much. Cam Ward was okay. He wasn't great. Kirk Cousins, whatever. And then he got Brassette. Jaden Daniels is okay. If I'm not mistaken, this was one of his first games, if not his first game back. CJ Strad 229. Then Lawrence Baker. They haven't played the caliber of quarterback that you would want a true elite defense to play. And I think people are saying a lot about Drake May. And honestly, guys, Drake May did not look good against Denver. He really did not look good. Hasn't looked good the whole playoffs. Him and Stafford are the best quarterbacks they're going to play this year. And Stafford has ripped them apart two of three times. I I am not convinced. You look at Raandre and Trayvon Henderson as the players to watch.
I'm not convinced this is a blowout. I I I think a lot of people are on the Seahawks train. I think a lot of people want the Patriots dynasty to not be a thing anymore. Here's the reality, guys. You got multiple weeks to prepare for a coaching staff that has more experience. This is Josh McDaniel's 10th Super Bowl, right? The New England Patriots are as good defensively. Maybe a little bit worse, but they're as good defensively. Offensively, I think they might be better. The offensive line is an issue, but I'm not convinced Seattle's is that much better. The Patriots have consistently taken care of the football better. Playoffs have been a different story for them and the Seahawks. But the Patriots take the ball away and the Seahawks don't. I have a really weird feeling that in a big moment, even though Sam Darnold rose to it last week, the ball is turned over a couple times. I think Josh McDaniels, these guys rise to the moment. And as insane as it sounds, I think the Patriots win this game. I think the Seahawks are the better team. I think the Patriots with multiple weeks to prepare pull it out. As insane as that sounds, I know a lot of you guys are not going to agree with me. I think it happens. God bless you guys. I appreciate you watching. And if you're here from the start of the season, God bless you. Thank you for following along. We'll have plenty more offseason content for you guys. See you soon.