Transcription
No matter how large or skilled a fleet may be, you cannot overcome nature, which is called geography. Donald changed the name of the Pacific Commander's headquarters to Indcific Commander and then back to Pacific Commander. What kind of joke is this? The reason is to reduce the pressure of having to manage the Indian Ocean, which is something they are not good at. Americans have been pirates controlling the world's shipping routes for 80 years, plundering global resources. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are a group that opposes the United States. Which side will we be on? Hello. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed and occupied by Iran. Actually, if we go back in history 400 years, the country with the highest maritime power was Portugal. In 1498, Portugal sailed around the Cape of Good Hope to Asia, reaching the Middle East. In 1507, Portugal successfully captured the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, in 2026, Iran has already taken control of the Strait of Hormuz. We want to say that in the past, capturing straits or controlling sea routes was the key to great powers. Portugal didn't just capture Hormuz; they also captured the Strait of Malacca in 1511. What happened 400 years ago is a sign that those who want to be maritime powers are world powers. They must control shipping routes and straits. Trump will do the same, using maritime blockades to control Iran and the Persian Gulf successfully. But where was the mistake? Why couldn't they defeat Iran? It's geography. It's maritime physics that you cannot overcome. The reason is, no matter how large or skilled a fleet may be, you cannot overcome nature, which is called geography. Therefore, the truth is that shipping is how we trade with the world. It's a supply chain that we absolutely need to control. That is the key reason why BRI, the Belt and Road Initiative, was conceived by China. It wasn't thought up easily; it was conceived with a strategy, a strategy that asks how to get China to the ocean and to the West. China is a natural prison, surrounded by islands like Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. How will they break through? They must pass through what? They must go to the West to reach Myanmar, India, Central Asia, and Europe. This is the so-called land-based Silk Road and the Maritime Silk Road, which means going out through the South China Sea. Notice that they don't break through the first island chain to the Pacific. Instead, they go around to the south, out into the South China Sea, then to Malacca, and into India, and then into Africa. This is China's Maritime Road. Why did China plan this route? Because China doesn't want to rule the world. China wants to rule Eurasia. The sea route, the Eurasian route. What China wants is land and sea. And what do they encounter? They encounter the old great power, the Americans, who already control it. What do Americans control? We want to talk about the Indcific Commander. What does it mean? It means the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean are controlled by Americans. But today, what has happened? Donald Trump changed the name of the Pacific Commander's headquarters to Indcific Commander and then back to Pacific Commander. What kind of joke is this? What game are they playing? I want to say that the Ind Pacific Command was renamed from the US Pacific Command just last month. The word "Indo" was removed. It's the original name. It was established 79 years ago, after World War I, on January 1, 1947. This shows that the US Commander, or USPACOM, was established seven decades ago. It is the largest combat command in the world, controlling the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Now they have removed the word "India." India is very angry, saying, "Hey, have the Americans changed their strategy?" No, they haven't changed their strategy. They just changed the name. It means India is still under the care of the US Pacific Commander. It's just that we changed the name. Why change it? This is the key. Why change it? It's to reduce the pressure of having to manage the Indian Ocean, which is something they are not good at. Why? The Indian Ocean is the ocean that connects the world between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Whoever controls the Indian Ocean is the master of the world. People have said this for a long time because it's the central ocean, the ocean in the middle, that controls the world's shipping routes. Wherever you want to go, you must pass through India. Is this surprising? What has happened is that the Indo-Pacific plan has been abandoned, or not? Because recently, our Minister of Foreign Affairs traveled to Hawaii to attend a meeting with the US Pacific Commander as a partner in the Indo-Pacific strategy. This is something we must challenge. What does China see? Does China see Thailand as a friend, an ally? China sent 49 tanks to Cambodia. Now we have to think, is China starting to distrust Thailand? Is China trying to balance power with Thailand through Cambodia? We have to ask ourselves this question: will Thailand be on the side of the Americans or on the side of China? As members of the Indo-Pacific, where we signed an agreement, the Indo-Pacific strategy involves 10 nations cooperating to counter China. So, let's analyze this: China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran form a group that opposes the United States. Which side will we be on? Will we be on this side or that side? What we know for sure is that Iran is a wolf. We see the state of Iran, even if it's a lone wolf working alone. Now it has a big brother supporting it, namely China and Russia, with a middle sibling and a younger sibling, North Korea, providing assistance. They are starting to form a bloc. And what about Thailand? What about ASEAN countries? If we compare them to Iran, can they be compared? We are not small. ASEAN is not small. But ASEAN is not a wolf. What is ASEAN? ASEAN is probably a sick person with no strength. Don't think of being a wolf. If we were to fight China, would you fight? If you fight America, would you fight? I believe no Thai person wants to fight America or China. But Iran fights. That's the difference. Iran fights America head-on, to the death. If it were Thailand, would you fight? No way. And if you ask if China would fight Thailand, this is a classic question, but I want to say the chance is almost zero, but not zero. If Thailand were as reckless as Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines, it's not certain that China wouldn't fire missiles at us, just like they might fire at Taiwan, Korea, or Japan. This game is very difficult to play because Thailand is not like Iran. It's very difficult for Thailand to fight China because Thailand is not built like Iran. There's no way we would go and fight China for any reason. Playing this game only leads to loss and loss. I want to survey a bit about what is happening in Thailand. There's a simple principle: we own the Gulf of Thailand. The name says it all. The Persian Gulf is also owned by Persia, right? The name says Persian Gulf. So, let's analyze why the Gulf of Thailand belongs to Thailand, but Japan occupied the Gulf of Thailand during World War II. No one talks about it. Japan occupied the Gulf of Thailand for 5 years during World War II. What did we do? We still say if China occupies Taiwan, will Japan attack China? This is what we wonder. And what will China do next? Will China occupy Thailand? Will they occupy Malacca? Will they occupy Sunda Strait? The Sunda Strait is the strait next to Malacca. They must capture three straits. It will be the gate for three giant walls. Therefore, to capture it, they must capture three straits to permanently block the passage between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. We see that the two oceans are separated by an island chain called Malacca. What we wonder is, will Japan dare to fight China? Let's look at a very interesting figure: the defense budget of China and Japan. Let's compare them over 20 years, starting from 2005. Believe it or not, in 2005, China's budget was less than Japan's. China's defense budget was less than Japan's. 42 versus 44. China 42. Japan 44 billion dollars. Five years later, China's budget doubled by 100%! 105 versus 54. China's budget increased enormously in five years, more than double Japan's. Another five years later, in 2015, China's budget increased to 200! Japan's decreased further, to 41. In 2020, China's budget increased again to 258! A very rapid jump. Japan increased slightly, to 49. It's still around the same level, in the 40s. This means Japan hasn't gone anywhere. In the past 20 years, it has remained close to its original level, while China has increased fivefold. So, what happened? Let's look at the last five years, which is 2025. China's budget is 335. Japan's is only 62. Japan increased by 20% compared to the previous year. China also increased by 20% compared to the previous year. But excuse me, the budget difference is fivefold. In the past 20 years, China has increased its military by fivefold, while Japan has increased by 20%, which is 0.2. This difference makes us see if Japan is a threat to China. The military budget hasn't gone anywhere; it's still at the same level, but China has increased fivefold. Should Japan fear China? It should fear greatly. A giant country with such a rapidly increasing military budget. But another thing you should understand is that if you compare it to GDP, there's no difference at all. Japan's defense budget and China's defense budget, when compared to GDP, are not different at all. On average, they are the same. The military budget as a percentage of GDP. Because China's GDP is five times larger than Japan's, its defense budget is also five times larger than Japan's. It's not strange at all. It's not a bizarre thing. I think China's defense budget is even too small if compared this way. Because Japan receives enormous support from America in terms of military. It has the American army and weapons from America. Therefore, when compared, Japan has a larger defense budget than China. But what happened is, will China and Japan fight? No one can predict what will happen. But I want to say that what we will see is that the US, America, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea will form one group, the Pacific group. Eurasia will be the group inside, which is China, Russia, and North Korea. That's it. But it's large enough to fight each other. We don't count Iran because Iran is not in the group that clashes in the Pacific. They are in the Indian Ocean. What I want to talk about is maritime power, which has a condition: the Strait of Malacca. What is the Strait of Malacca? What do I mean by the Gulf of Thailand? I want everyone to look at this map. What does this map show? It shows how Japan occupied the Gulf of Thailand during World War II. If you understand strategy, to capture the Strait of Malacca, Japan first moved to occupy the Gulf of Thailand, occupying the two coastal areas called the "handle." Once they occupied the "handle," they moved south to occupy Malaysia and Singapore, and north to occupy Thailand and Myanmar. But Japan didn't go to the Indian Ocean. Japan used the railway to go up to Myanmar. Why? To blockade China. This is the key. The strategy is very surprising. After occupying the Gulf of Thailand, they went south. They only went south to Singapore, but they went north to Myanmar to capture China. If they could blockade Myanmar, they could capture China. This was Japan's unsuccessful strategy. But what we observe is that they occupied the Gulf of Thailand. They owned the Gulf of Thailand during World War II. And what do we compare to today? The word "canal" is the connection between two oceans. In Krabi, Americans are now planning to occupy Krabi. And what about China? They are starting to think about whether Americans will occupy Thailand in Krabi. So, they are reinforcing their naval base in Liaoning by stationing two destroyers there, preparing a port for large aircraft carriers, and preparing a place for submarines. They are also preparing a place for land combat via the railway from Liaoning directly into China. This strategy makes Liaoning port a very important strategic point for clashing with Americans in the Gulf of Thailand. They fear Thailand will be occupied by America in the Gulf of Thailand. Therefore, to capture the strategic Liaoning port and defend the Gulf of Thailand so that America cannot enter and blockade China through Thailand. Because Japan already occupied Thailand and then occupied Myanmar, they could blockade China from the south. China would be doomed. This is the important reason in World War II that China also realized. Therefore, China will never give up Myanmar to anyone else. Myanmar is China's backyard, which cannot be lost. Just like Russia cannot lose Ukraine. Russia cannot lose Ukraine because it needs to defend itself. China cannot lose North Korea because it needs to defend itself. So, will China give up Thailand? This is an important question. China will definitely not give up Myanmar because it would lose a crucial strategy. But China might give up Thailand. It's possible because China has Cambodia and Liaoning port in its hands. And will they occupy Thailand? This question is very difficult. Because if we look at maritime geography, the "handle" is the key to controlling Southeast Asia. The south is ASEAN. The "handle" of our country, not Malaysia. Because our country's "handle" is not in the Strait of Malacca. It is north of the Strait of Malacca. It controls the Strait of Malacca, it controls the Gulf of Thailand, and it controls the South China Sea. Therefore, the key is in Krabi and Chumphon. Anyone who looks at the map can see it. Can American military strategists not see it? Therefore, various missiles will be fired heavily at Thailand, especially the "handle," because it is a crucial point. Will China and America win or lose? They will only measure each other at sea. They will never fight in cities. They will not fight on the mainland because both will be destroyed. They will not allow themselves to fight in San Francisco or Beijing. They will fight in the South China Sea so as not to affect supply chains and not to cause countries to collapse. It's like cowboys having a duel. You duel in the open field. Kill each other until death. Then whoever wins, we'll talk. Not dueling in the middle of the city and causing the city to be destroyed. Because they don't want the city to be destroyed. Therefore, what must remain is that it must not be destroyed. Therefore, what happened, the case of Japan invading Thailand in the Gulf of Thailand, they landed at 5 points: Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, Pattani. They landed at 5 points and then occupied Bangkok. They must capture these 5 points first and then enter Bangkok. And occupy the Strait of Malacca by passing through Singapore. Will China do that? China must do that. Will China be foolish? If they come down from Kunming, we will occupy the north, Chiang Mai, down to Sukhothai, occupy Vientiane. They probably won't do that. That's right. I think they are smart. They will use the navy from Hainan to gather at Liaoning port. Then they will occupy the Gulf of Thailand immediately. Why do they need Liaoning port? Because if they occupy the Gulf of Thailand and the Strait of Malacca, think simply. Hainan is the largest naval base, with a fleet gathered there. And they already have bases in the South China Sea, 7 of them. If they want to attack and occupy the Gulf of Thailand, it's as easy as flipping a palm. How many frigates do we have? We have 8 frigates. Another 7 will be decommissioned soon. We will buy 3 more. Will our frigates be able to resist the Chinese navy? The Chinese navy has about 80 frigates, 20 destroyers, and 200 corvettes. What will you use to fight them with your 7-8 frigates? So, if they send just 10 ships, you will be tired. Because they have at least 10 submarines. The Chinese navy is huge. So, occupying the Gulf of Thailand is not difficult. It's very close. So, I say if you want to fight China, it's not worth it. You will lose anyway. So, if they want to occupy the Gulf of Thailand, they will win. What can we do to resist if America doesn't come to help? There's no way to win. If Japan doesn't come to help, then why would they occupy the Gulf of Thailand? So, they won't do it because they don't know why they would occupy it. Unless, unless Americans set up a base in the Gulf of Thailand, and it becomes a threat to them. It's like Ukraine. They attacked. This is what we can read. If they occupy Thailand, if they occupy the "handle," then the central plains, which are called the "killing fields," have no meaning at all. Bangkok is a killing field. What does it mean? It's very easy to capture. It's a piece of cake to capture Bangkok. Capture the "handle," then attack Bangkok. Bangkok is a geography that is very easy to capture. So, we don't need to defend Bangkok. It's very difficult. But we have an advantage. We have Sattahip. Sattahip is also important. If Sattahip is well-planned, it can defend Bangkok. If we set up missiles there, or warships, or boats there, we can defend Bangkok. But how many do we have? This is what we need to think about. When we talk about Thailand fighting China, I think it's very interesting to discuss that in World War II, the Japanese army landed on the southern coast of Songkhla, Pattani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Prachuap Khiri Khan, in a straight line on the plains. They used our southern region as a supply base to attack British Malaysia. This game is certain. Because geography dictates it, this game will surely be won. And whoever rules or occupies the land, I think China is not foolish enough to do that. Because doing so might not be difficult to occupy, but what they gain is not worth it. What they gain, what do they want? They don't want to occupy Thailand. Because if they want to occupy Thailand, they can go down to block Myanmar more easily than losing a lot of territory to occupy the Gulf of Thailand. If they don't want Thailand, but if they want to fight Americans, that's another matter. It's a matter of needing to occupy the so-called "handle" base. They want a naval base and a military complex at the "handle" to expand their influence into the Indian Ocean. This is my observation. What has happened is that Americans have been pirates controlling the world's shipping routes for 80 years, plundering global resources, just like the Portuguese did 400 years ago, and then passed on to the Dutch, and then to the British. Currently, these pirates are the Anglo-Saxons who control shipping routes, plundering Iran at the Strait of Hormuz. Iran fought back, pushed them out, and regained control of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a symbol of victory for the Eurasian continent, or Asians, who have pushed out the pirates who have been plundering the seas for over 400 years. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Goodbye. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the Su Tao channel to not miss interesting clips and watch new clips first.