Transcription
As a trader and investor, one of the most precious commodities, I would say, is information. Investment funds, hedge funds spend astronomical sums on information, and generally speaking, the person who is the best informed will be able to make better decisions because, obviously, they have all the pieces of the puzzle in front of them compared to someone who won't have all the information. So, in this video, I wanted to share with you some sites that I, as a trader with over 10 years in the markets, use very frequently, with information that is extremely useful and valuable, and especially, let's say, not the most obvious sites. Otherwise, the insight would have absolutely no value. And now, the good news is that whether you are a crypto trader or investor, a long-term stock investor, or a short-term forex trader, you will find very valuable information in this video, and especially a site to use according to your method. There's something for everyone. So, with that, the first site I'm going to share with you, which will particularly interest long-term stock investors, is valueinvestorsclub.com. It's simply a private and selective online investment club where you will find experienced investors who share their best position ideas. Now, why do I find this site extremely interesting compared to any other forum on finance, investment, and so on, is that to be a member, when I say member, it's to be able to post your ideas and share them, there is an ultra-selective admission process, and you have to pass an analysis test to be accepted. So, in fact, all the investment ideas you see here, for example, Mike 126 who posts an analysis on Reddit, you already know that Mike 126 is not an idiot and is not someone who just arrived on the market and doesn't know much, and so on. On the contrary, this site is really where you will find quality rather than quantity. To give you an idea, a member who posts must absolutely post two ideas per year minimum and a maximum of six. So it's not at all a chat where you'll have lots of traders posting lots of ideas and so on. No, these are major investment theses. And as the name suggests, Value Investors Club, very often, and personally, this is how I use it to find value investment opportunities, where we look for good valuations. A bit like Warren Buffett's theory, okay, which is simply to buy good businesses at good prices. And by reading all the ideas posted on this site, it allows you to filter out a lot of noise and, as I said earlier, focus on quality and truly find very interesting research. One of the last pieces of research I really liked was about Adobe. And so, right here, if we look at Adobe's valuation historically, we see that just for reference, if we look at the NASDAQ, which is the American stock index for tech companies, we see that we are currently at an all-time high. So, most tech companies are following. However, when we look at Adobe, well, it's the opposite. Okay? Adobe, you can see there's a big drop, and since the 2021 all-time high, Adobe is down 50%. Okay? Obviously, there's a reason, but I'm giving you an example here, but Gandalf was able to post a complete research on Adobe's valuations, making very interesting comparisons. So, as you can see, Adobe is at 18.9 times its earnings. So, a P/E ratio of 18.9. This means that the price is 18.9 times what the company generates in a year. And if we compare it to other large-cap stocks specializing in SaaS like Adobe, we find valuations more like Microsoft, Salesforce, which are more around a price-to-earnings ratio of 28 to 25. And even if we compare Adobe's 18.9, it's well below the S&P 500's valuation. But I want to say that this is absolutely not a site for signals, trading, and so on. Absolutely not. It's primarily a site to read the theses and investment ideas of competent investors, and very often, ideas published on Value Investors Club have outperformed the market over a fairly long period. So, again, a very, very good resource for any long-term investor, and again, even if you are a trader, long-term investing is something that should be part of your long-term portfolio.
Now, the second site I'm going to share with you will be more interesting for traders, especially forex traders, on currencies, as well as commodities. And this site will be Prime Market Terminal. For your information, I won't hide it from you, I'm part of the design team for this software, but not for nothing. Because indeed, as a trader, after more than 10 years of experience in this field, as I told you at the beginning of the video, data, information is something very precious, very important. Over the years, I've always had access to several data providers, so different software, all paid, to access different information. Prime Market Terminal is software that has allowed me to consolidate everything, all the information I had access to on different software, all in one terminal. And moreover, to give you an idea, since this software has been ready, I've been able to simply cancel my subscriptions with Zenith Refinitive, which was precisely a financial terminal I used before. I was able to end my subscriptions with FX+ which was also a site I used to see bank positioning and certain ideas from major investment banks. I was also able to end my subscriptions with Squawk Box Talk, which are live financial radios where they shout out the data, the news. So you don't even need to be on the computer, in fact, you simply have the radio telling you, and all these things are available in Prime Market Terminal. In any case, I'll put the link in the description. Now, I'll quickly show you what we can find here. If we look at all the FX pairs, we can go, let's say, to Eurodollar. I'll show you quickly. But so, you see that we have several categories. So, we'll have the event category. So, this will bring up all the economic data related to the Eurodollar pair that are expected. And as you can see, it's a professional economic calendar. When I say professional, it's that we don't just have the forecast. We'll also have the minimum and maximum expectations of the economists' range to really know what truly surprises the market. For example, today, we had the US PPI data, and here you can see that the expectation was 2.9% on the core PPI, whereas analysts expected a minimum of 2.6% and a maximum of 3%. Today, we saw a release of 3.7%. This 3.7% release truly surprises the market, whereas a release of 3%, for example, yes, is above the forecast, but some economists already expected it. Okay? So that's the calendar. Then, we'll see all the information related to volatility to see what the average volatility is, whether it's daily, weekly, monthly for different pairs. This will allow you to place certain stops, even place certain targets if you're aiming for a certain movement in a day, to know what is normal, what is abnormal. Well, there's a lot, I won't explain it all. We also have all the seasonality information where we can see historically how a certain pair evolves over a specific month, and so on. You'll be able to find the DMX, which is simply information drawn from affiliated brokers, with which we can see retail positioning and simply do the opposite. As you know, 76.9% of retail traders lose money. So, if we see that more than 90% of retail traders are buyers on a certain pair, maybe it's not the best idea to buy that pair. This is simply the analysis of other market participants, seeing what others are doing on the markets. We'll also have the COT Report, which again, is the analysis of other market participants, except that here, we'll be more interested in institutional investors. To give you an idea, just COT, Commitment of Traders, is available for free online on the CFTC website. Just here, you scroll down, you go to Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and you'll be able to find it here. So, this will simply be the report made once a week by institutions on their positioning on different assets, but especially currencies. So, here you can see their change in positioning on the Canadian dollar, on the Swiss franc, on the Mexican peso, and so on. But as you can see, this is information that, seen like this, can be a bit indigestible. So, here again, it will allow you to see this in a much clearer, much more visual way. So, this is the inside of a currency we're looking for. And now, when we go back to the homepage, you can see that we have different widgets. For example, right here, we'll have the probability of interest rate evolution, which is calculated with ST Markets. So, here you see the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and so on. Right here on the right, we'll have the news feed. So, to get the news, real-time information. Now, if you don't want to have to read the information, there's also the radio option, which you can activate, where you'll have economists, analysts who will simply give you the information live as it comes out. So, you don't even need to refresh a page, look at the incoming information, it's told to you, and you can directly execute the positions you want to execute. Now, you'll also find the trades and trade ideas from various major investment banks with their entry, their stop, their take profit. Again, it's not a trade signal, but it's information to add to your arsenal to always make better decisions. I'll give you an example here. CADCHF, Canadian Dollar against Swiss Franc. We had a short from Morgan Stanley. It was at one point, a trade I was able to take in June. I was interested in selling CADCHF. Seeing Morgan Stanley have the exact same idea, more or less the same execution, and so on, is something that reinforces my idea, with which I was able to enter quite aggressively, and I believe it's a trade I was able to close in July with very good profits. Now, you'll also find plenty of research and bank reports. So, right here, we have, for example, an analysis from Scotiabank that was done this morning, and you can simply look at research, analyses done by real economists who work in banks, and here, for example, you see, from Arcades, to see their expectations on this pair. Again, we often see traders asking themselves, "How do banks trade, and so on?" Read this kind of report every day, and you'll quickly understand how banks trade, and especially, you'll quickly understand that banks don't just trade with lines here and there; it's mainly with a foundation of macroeconomic reasoning and fundamental analysis. And speaking of that, you'll also be able to access all the macroeconomic information for different economies to do your own research. So, let's look at the USD, for example, right here. You can choose, for example, everything related to the price index. Inflation rate, you can study the evolution of inflation in the United States, make your different comparisons, and so on. And so, below this video, I'll put the link to Prime Market Terminal. I invite you to check out the page. I've also made a complete presentation video on the software with literally all the information, where I go into more detail than in this video.
Now, the third site I want to share with you, which will particularly interest crypto traders and investors, is bitcoinagazinepro.com. At the time, it was called Look into Bitcoin, but it has been bought, and this is now the name. And simply, it's an analysis platform specifically for Bitcoin. And what I like is that it's a truly all-in-one platform, and especially where, although there are paid versions, the free versions are honestly very good for an investor. For a short-term trader, the paid version will be more interesting. But so, as you can see, we'll be in charts right here. You'll find many indicators related to the crypto market, and especially the Bitcoin asset. What I look at carefully, and have for years, is the MVRVz score, especially for finding market bottoms, for example, in 2023, and also potentially moments of overheating in the markets. Same with the P Cycle Top Indicator, same with the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss. I invite you, by the way, to click on this video, it's showing up here, which is a video where I show you when to sell your cryptos. So, I personally show you the indicators I use to try to time the best moment, even if it's absolutely impossible, to sell your cryptos, sell your bitcoins at the precise top. Okay? But that's not the objective. The objective is to enter more or less at good prices when it's low, and exit more or less at good prices when it's high. And so, I completely invite you to check out this video to be able to cash out your cryptos at the right time.
Now, the 4th site I'd like to present to you, this is for long-term investors, short-term traders, stocks, crypto, forex, commodities, bonds, literally absolutely everything, because it's simply a site with which you can do seasonality research. Seasonality research is simply studying the past, let's say past movements on specific dates or precise temporal moments, and trying to find repetitions that tend to occur. And so, this site is seasonax.com. Again, I'll put the link in the description. And so, on Seasonax, you'll be able to study the seasonality of these different assets. So, as a striking historical example, we have the seasonality of the dollar. Okay? So, if we advance this, you'll be able to see here. So, this is basically the general movement of the dollar over a year. Okay? So, we see that historically, the worst month for the dollar is December, and the best month for the dollar is January. And you can see it's striking in the sense that we have a very aggressive drop historically throughout December and a reversal that happens precisely on January 1st. This happens because there's an end-of-year rebalancing with many investment funds, many companies that will sell dollars to repatriate profits, pay dividends, pay taxes. And so, this conversion done by many funds at the same time causes selling pressure on the dollar, and this pressure completely reverses from January 1st, where there's reinvestment in the dollar and annual allocations that cause a strong inflow into the dollar. And so, historically, we have this seasonality on the dollar. You'll also be able to analyze the seasonality of different stocks. So, for example, here you can see Apple's stock historically crashes in September. Over the last 45 years, we see Apple really suffering in September. So, again, it's a piece of the puzzle that could potentially tell you that if you invest in Apple stocks, it might be smart to sell them at the end of August and buy them back on October 1st, and avoid the short period in September. Okay? You'll be able to analyze stock indices. A seasonality that I tend to trade every year is the historically very strong seasonality of platinum starting around the Christmas period. Okay? As you can see right here, if we look at the last 25 years, okay, we'll move this a bit so it shifts, you can see that generally, from December 22nd to February 20th, we historically have a platinum rally. Okay? As you can see in this given period when I select it over the last 25 years, a win rate of 80%. So, you can see over these last 25 years, this pattern worked 20 times. When it worked, it generated an average of 11% profit, and the five times it didn't work, it lost an average of -3%. Now, you understand why I tend to take this trade literally every year. You'll also be able to analyze Bitcoin, for example, which again has a very strong seasonality, with August and September tending to be negative, and October generally being where we see the most significant, strongest, and most explosive returns. Now, I want to say that my objective in the next 6 months is really to integrate everything we can see here on Seasonax within Prime Market Terminal, which I was talking about, to again allow me to stop subscriptions here and there and have everything centralized on one platform, and therefore, also spend less.
Now, my last piece of advice that I recommend you look at is simply all the other videos on this YouTube channel. I've been posting videos here on YouTube for over 4 years now, and I've shared a lot of value. And where I've probably shared the most value is on this playlist. I'll put the link to the playlist below this video, where it appears somewhere here. Learn Trading from A to Z, taught by an ex-institutional trader, where first, I debunk all the myths, all the scams, and all the truth that is literally hidden from all retail traders. So, you'll find that, and especially behind it, let's say, the entire methodology that a professional trader, when I say professional trader, it's generally a trader who has worked in institutions, because from experience, they are the ones who make money, okay? And that's really where I was able to acquire and explode my experience in the markets. And so, in short, I've made a 45-minute video to explain its concept, 45 minutes to become a pro trader. I highly recommend you check out this video. I'm not afraid to say that it's probably the most interesting and complete video you'll see in your trading career here on YouTube. So, with that, let me know if you liked this video. It was Elliot. I wish you a good end of the day, evening. Ciao! Ohoh.