Transcription
Yo, what's up guys? Maine here. Welcome back to the whiteboard series. This is episode number 14. In this video, we're going to be covering the 15-minute entry model as well as something called the silver bullet, which is a time-based model using concepts that we've already learned about. I also want to clarify something that came up in the form of a comment under the last video. Someone said that you're not going to time the daily reversal on the five-minute chart. And they're right. If you're longing every five-minute market structure break and fair value gap, you are going to get chopped to bits before the actual reversal happens.
Now, I thought I did a good enough job explaining the top-down things on the high time frame that need to happen before applying the five-minute model, but just in case I didn't, I'm going to double down and explain those things again and in more detail in this video. Let's get into it.
Let's start by talking about some of the five-minute model limitations. Okay, so we got our five-minute model here and what are its limits? Well, rightly so. The five-minute chart is a very low time frame and it can be oftentimes viewed as very noisy, especially when you're trying to use it to time a high time frame reversal. So, if price is coming into a high time frame order block and you're looking on the five-minute chart, there could be a ton of market structure breaks on the five-minute chart that absolutely fit the criteria of the five-minute model before the actual reversal occurs. Okay, you got a market structure break, fair value gap here, you're going to long, you're stopped out. Oh, you got a market structure break, fair value gap here, you're going to long, you get stopped out. Now, if you were just solely looking at the five-minute chart and longing every single five-minute market structure break and fair value gap, that is going to chop you up before the actual reversal happens. It's going to be death by a thousand cuts. You could put your stop loss right below the five-minute swing low before the break structure the fair value gap on the five-minute model. But if you're trying to time a reversal, your actual invalidation is below that high time frame zone.
Furthermore, we're not using the five-minute chart simply to long every single market structure break and fair value gap. We're very specifically looking for the five-minute model to appear once all of the high time frame things have come into alignment. So, we have our weekly uh bias, right? We have our daily dealing range, right? And bias, maybe we have our daily order block as well. Then on the H4, I'm already looking for signs of a reversal based on the direction of the high time frame chart. And I thought I made that clear in the last video in the video before, but if I didn't, here is a reiteration of that. We're not just longing every five-minute model that shows up here. I'm not even going down to the five-minute chart until I have a four-hour order block fair value gap break in structure or on the hourly even, right? Same thing, order blocks, fair value gaps, SFPs. I'm looking for the signs that the H4 and the H1 are reversing in the direction of the weekly and the daily. And then once I have that confirmation, you wait and then you can go down to the five-minute and actually look for the entry and you can time that reversal based on the five-minute, assuming you've done all of these steps correctly.
The other thing that I mentioned in that 10 to 11-minute mark clip there is that based on what you're doing with the five-minute model might dictate where you put your stop and that matters here as well. The five-minute model, okay, can be used for reversals, but it's going to be more difficult, as I said in that clip, to time a reversal on the five-minute chart because there's going to be multiple fake outs where we, yeah, we broke structure, but we're still trending down on the hour, on the H4. We still don't have that clue that we're sinking back up with the high time frame. Really, your invalidation on reversals is that high time frame zone, that H4 or H1 zone, that's your invalidation, not every single high uh five-minute low. Now, market structure breaks and fair value gaps on the five-minute are clues, right? That the market is trying to reverse, but that reversal is going to be clear and obvious on a higher time frame first before you dig into the five-minute and get very precise.
Now, if you're using the five-minute model the other way, which is for continuation, that is when you can get the really tight stop and you put your stop loss right below, right? There's your five-minute fair value gap. You put your stop loss right below that five-minute low. That primarily is going to be when you have continuation. When are you using the five-minute model for continuation? We've come into the order block and we have an hourly break and then on the hourly already having a break and a potential sign of reversal compliant with the daily in here, using the five-minute model after you already have a higher time frame confirmation or even better yet, the reversal's already begun and you now have real confirmation that this is trending. Buying those five-minute fair value gap setups is going to work with a much tighter stop. So reversals, your invalidation is below here. It's going to be hard to time the reversal on the five-minute alone. You still need that H4, that H1 confirmation if you're going to use the five-minute model for continuation. Then you can have that tighter stop right below the five-minute low because you already have some high time frame clue that the reversal is in progress or it's already happening. It's already turned around on the H1, H4, even the daily.
Really, what you're going to see by the end of this video is as you go up time frames here, the confirmation gets more certain, but your entry gets worse and your stop loss often is going to be wider. So, your risk-reward is not going to be as good. At the end of the day, if we're longing in the weekly discount, a daily higher low at a daily order block, you in theory could just long the daily order block itself. That's confirmation. We have a daily market structure break, pulling back into the order block. You can just take that long. But if you want to get a maybe tighter risk-reward, a slightly tighter setup that offers better RR, you might want to zoom in here to the H4. And on the H4 within that daily order block, we have a low get made, a lower low, and then something like this. Now, all of a sudden, your stop could go below there. And maybe you want to get even tighter yet than that. Then you can go to the H1. Each time you go to a lower time frame, you are potentially getting a tighter setup and really dialing in the exact moment that that reversal on the dailies can happen. However, the confirmation that you have is less powerful because at H1 setup right within that daily OB, the H1 could do this and then make another low and still end up being a higher low on the daily, but it blew up that H1 setup that you were taking. So, there's risk in going to the lower time frames and waiting for that for your pure confirmation, but the reward is you get a potentially tighter setup. But ultimately, the entire goal here is not just longing this blindly, nor is it longing the M5 kind of entry model blindly. It's combining all of these things at the same time. So, if you have the weekly bias, the dealing range, the H4 or H1 setup based on the point of interest there, when you go down to the M5 or after this video, the M15, your probability of that being the point of reversal is higher. And the proof is in the pudding. This is how I've been trading for years. You guys have seen me do it publicly on stream, on Twitter, on Telegram, in the Haven. And I'm going to use a trade that I took just last week on Bitcoin using this exact model to show you that I'm not just cherry-picking data points. Obviously, I'm showing you guys hindsight examples on the charts because how else am I supposed to teach you? But I do it live every single week in front of my community, on streams, all that fun stuff. So hopefully that answers what was rightly a great question under the last video. Let's continue.
Now, we're going to talk about the 15-minute model. What's great about the 15-minute model is it is the five-minute model just using the 15-minute chart. So, you're still going to look for a break in market structure in the direction of the high time frame. You're then going to look for price to put in a fair value gap. And that fair value gap is going to be your entry. And guess what? Your stop either goes below the 15-minute low or just like on the M5, right below the H4 or H1 zone POI, whatever you want to call it. Okay, so it's the same model. It's the same model just using a higher time frame. And like I just explained in that last section, the higher the time frame model confirmation that you're getting, the more likely it is that your trade is correct, but you're going to be getting in at a later and arguably worse price because confirmation takes longer on the 15-minute. Takes more time for the 15-minute chart to break structure than it does for the five-minute. And the five-minute is going to break structure before the 15-minute is. And your stop loss arguably is going to be potentially further away, meaning worse RR. So the risk is that you have a worse entry, maybe worse risk-reward in terms of the actual setup. The reward you get for that additional risk is better confirmation, higher chance that you are indeed timing the reversal. So this is your high time frame zone on the five-minute chart we might have before the actual reversal. So you had, you know, maybe one failed attempt, two failed attempts, and then it actually reversed. This same setup on the 15-minute chart might have just been this. Okay, I'm not obviously drawing this to perfect scale, but you get the idea, right? So that noise, those failed triggers on the on the five-minute were just one 15-minute setup that ended up working perfectly. So you're getting more confirmation because you're not entering on each one of these five-minute market structure breaks. You're waiting for the 15-minute high to get taken out, which means more confirmation. But here, when it actually did work on the five-minute, you're getting in at technically a lower price with a tighter stop. So that's the trade-off between the five-minute and the 15-minute.
But here is where hopefully all comes together for you guys because I've been getting questions about this from you guys in the comments on streams under the videos. Well, Maine, what is your H12 H1 model? Why are you teaching us this five-minute entry model? Why are you teaching us this 15-minute entry model? It's all the same, right? The H12 H1 model is just a very mechanical way for me to teach you everything that we've gone through in this video series so far. The H12 H1 really, really is a weekly, daily, H4, H1, and I'm entering just on the H1 or oftentimes I'll zoom in even below the H1. But it's the same thing. The weekly, I'm just not showing you the weekly because the weekly moves really slow. I'm just showing you the H12 dealing range. It's the same thing, right? I like the H12 chart. It's my favorite chart to look at, but it's just the daily. The daily and the H12 are effectively interchangeable. Two H12 candles are one daily candle. I don't need to show you the H4 chart every time I post a chart on Twitter or in Telegram or in the Haven because I know exactly what the H4 chart is doing by looking at the H1. So, I'm just simplifying this entire process into two time frames. And you say, "Well, what about this five-minute model?" Well, have you ever heard me talk about the H1 M15 or the H1 M5, excuse me? What do you think that is? That's the five-minute model. And I'm not just using any H1. I'm using an H1 that's also usually lined up with an H12. Okay. How about the M15 model? Well, have you ever heard me talk about the H4, M15? It's the same thing. I'm not just using any H4. My H4 is generally in line with my H12 or my daily. It's the same thing. So, all that you're seeing me do on Twitter, right, is simplify what I'm teaching you here step by step into two time frames. But I'm still looking at the weekly. I'm still oftentimes checking the H4. I'm still oftentimes even going below the H1 and looking for even more confirmation or earlier confirmation, I should say, on the M5. It's all the same. But the reason I'm teaching you it in this direction is because this is how you need to learn to read price. You need to learn to read price from top down. Once you're comfortable reading price from top down, these time frames become interchangeable. I'm not saying you can skip steps, but you can simplify the process. You can make it your own and you can do it slightly differently than what I'm showing you here. The most important thing that I want from this video series is for you guys to understand the core concepts of price action trading which include top-down analysis and an entry pattern that ultimately you could use on the H1, the H4, the M15, the M5. It doesn't matter what time frame you use the entry pattern on as long as you're doing top down. It will have a higher likelihood of working the way that you think it should, assuming you do everything correctly, practice proper risk management. I'm giving you an edge here. This is how I trade. Um, and you guys have seen it for years now. So, to hopefully dispel even further confusion. Well, what about the H12 H1? Why are you showing me the M5 and the M15 if you enter on the H1? It's all the same. It is all the same. And the more comfortable you get with price, the more liberties you can take with how you do your analysis. And you're going to see different ways that you can enter. You're going to have an example that I show you later in this video where even though the weekly and the daily were in a downtrend, I took a long and all video long, two videos ago. And heck, the whole series I said trade with the direction of the high time frame. If we're in the weekly chart and it's bullish and the daily chart is bullish, we're only looking for longs. If the weekly and daily chart are bearish, we're only looking for shorts. But then I go ahead and take a long. I've been trading for a long time. I understand that even though the most likely outcome is that that daily and weekly chart make a lower high because we're at the weekly and daily range low and we had a weekly SFP and all these other things. I am confident that we're at least going to get a counter-trend bounce. You can take a long. You don't have to be so rigid. But the way that I'm teaching it to you early on is rigidity because you need to learn the basics before you get more fluid with it, before you take more liberties with it. And we'll get there. This is the first video series I've done like this. As we do more stuff on YouTube, we'll get deeper and deeper into some of these concepts, different ways that you can do it. But for now, top down, use these four time frames. And then if you want, you can use these two entry patterns like I'm showing you. But this M5 model, this M15 model, you can use it on the H1. You don't even have to go to the low time frames if you don't want to. But I'm showing you how it works mechanistically because if you do it in this order and you follow these steps, you're going to find this setup appears and helps you identify reversals and continuations. Okay. So, again, I hope that answers any questions that might have come up over the last couple of videos about the M5 model itself or uh why am I not teaching you the H12 H1, it's all the same.
So, again, the M15 model, to get back to the more topic of this video, it is the exact same as the M5. It's just using the M15 instead. You still need the break in structure in the direction of the high time frame. You're looking for the fair value gap. That's your entry. Your stop goes below the 15-minute low for continuation primarily or below the H4 H1 zone if you're actually looking to try and time a reversal. So, this M15 model could be called the H1 model. It could be called the H4 model. It even shows up itself on the weekly. All that matters is if you're doing top-down analysis, you have to have your analysis on the high time frame and then your entry has to be on a decently lower time frame. So the daily chart analysis, H4 entry, I don't love, but daily chart analysis entering on the one hour, totally okay. And you're going to see in the examples that I show you on the real charts here exactly what I mean and why all this is interchangeable.
One more thing I want to say on the M15 model here. What makes this better per se than the M5 model? Part of it is going to be you. Your ability to be at the charts, your ability to be patient, how much free time you have. All of these things are going to factor into the type of trader you are, your personality type. ICT used to give an analogy of there's sprinters and there's long-distance runners. You might be a sprinter. You might be a long-distance runner. A long-distance runner might prefer swing trading, right? A sprinter might prefer scalping. So, if you're someone who has a job and you don't want to be looking at the charts at New York open every single day, maybe the 15-minute model or even the H1 version, which is just doing the exact same thing that you see here, but just going at the H1, don't even go lower. Maybe that makes more sense for you. Maybe you're someone who's trading super high time frame and you're looking at the monthly, the weekly, and then you're entering on the daily or the H6 or whatever, H4. And that's that's your game. Or maybe you're someone who says, "You know what? I want to day trade. So, I'm going to do the weekly, the daily. I'm gonna look at the H4, the H1, but I want to be on the super low time frame, and I'm going to be trying to catch the M5 model at New York Open or during the London kill zone." We're going to talk about the silver bullet. Those kill zones are that time-based element. So, a large part of what is going to determine how you apply what I'm teaching you here is going to be the type of trading you want to do, what time frames, what assets, what your personality type is, and ultimately how much time you have to be on the charts. The higher the time frame, the less time you need to spend looking at the charts because everything that you do is going to play out more slowly. Whereas, if you're entering on the M5, it's a new candle every five minutes, right? You got to be locked in for that period of time.
Next up, I'm going to cover two different examples here. And again, this should hopefully clear up even more stuff from the prior video. The first thing we're going to talk about is how to trade the daily okay reversal. So how do we actually catch that point in time where the daily chart is putting in its higher low or putting in, right, its lower high? How do we time this reversal using the M15 model or the M5 model? Okay, so the highest probability way to catch this daily reversal is to let the reversal prove itself and then enter on that first pullback. You're trying to find that moment in time where the reversal has given us enough confirmation where we're willing to take the risk to think that it's in and put the trade on on that next pullback. Okay, notice how I said take the risk. The potential of the reversal being in, we don't know, right? We're trading at the end of the day. I'm making an educated guess that this is where the higher low or the lower high on the daily chart is going to form based on my top-down analysis. And then I'm going to use the low time frame to take a stab at where I think that I'm getting confirmation of that occurring is. And I might be wrong. It might go lower and then reverse. It might not reverse at all. You don't know. That's the game. So, you're going to want price to prove to you that the reversal is potentially happening. And you're going to start the same way as always by doing your top-down analysis. So, first thing we're going to look at is the weekly chart. And we're going to get our range and our bias, our POI, if there is one on the weekly. So, we might start off and look and say, okay, well, the weekly just broke a high. Okay. And now it's trading in a weekly order block. Okay. And then we might zoom in and see that the daily has also broken a high and we're trading in a daily order block. Something like this. And we say, okay, now based on the weekly being here, it's in the discount OT, all that fun stuff. The daily dealing range, right? We're below the 50%. We're at the OT. We have the order block. Okay, we now have our zone where we believe price could form the daily reversal. Now, we're going to use the H4 and the H1 for looking for that initial confirmation before dialing in to the M15 or ultimately if you want to try on the M5, you can do that as well.
So, let's draw out that daily with a little more detail so we can show what we're talking about here. So, we have our MSB on the daily and then the daily starts pulling back into high time frame demand, right? Whether this is an order block or fair value gap or a breaker, whatever it is that caused this MSB. We now have our daily dealing range here. We're below the 50%. We have the OT, and this might still be the daily chart. Maybe you've zoomed into the H4 at this point. You start marking off things like equal highs. You have your range highs, right? You have your liquidity above the market, below the market. What you're going to do now, let's assume this is the four-hour chart at this point is I'm looking for the four-hour or the hourly, but you start on the four-hour. And this I went over this last video, but maybe not clear enough. And maybe that's where that confusion was. I'm not just zooming in here immediately and looking on the M5 chart for a reversal to occur on a break-in structure and a fair value gap. I want to see the four-hour. Put in a market structure break. Now I have a four-hour fair value gap here. That's my zone that I'm going to then go use to look for the model to form in. Or maybe the four-hour puts in a fair value gap. And then inside this four-hour fair value gap, there's a one-hour SFP and structure break. That seems to be the piece of missing logic perhaps that was missed in the last video. But you're not just entering on the daily and looking for every five-minute or 15-minute model to play out. I want to see on the H4 or the hourly a sign that the reversal is actually going to occur. That could be a four-hour or one-hour market structure break that creates a fair value gap, an order block. It could be an SFP on the four-hour or the one-hour. You could even have a daily market structure break. Assume this chart for a moment was instead the daily chart. So this isn't the four-hour chart. This is actually the daily chart. Well, guess what? Now we have a daily market structure break. Even though this is still our daily range, our internal structure here has changed on the daily. Any sort of pullback here on the lower time frames, we're going to be looking for reasons to long. We're going to be looking for opportunities to trade this reversal because we're going to have some sort of high time frame confirmation that the reversal is in. So again, it's not just going to the daily order block and longing every five-minute model or 15-minute model. You might eventually be right, but you probably got chopped to bits before it happened. You need that second level confirmation, that step number three in our four-step process, which is going down to the or sorry, step number two and three, which is going down to the H4 and then to the H1. And then you go to step four, which is your model. And I tried to make that clear uh, you know, in the last couple of videos, but maybe it wasn't clear enough. You need to do all these steps in order. You don't go from high time frame directly to model. You need to get that confirmation that that turn is actually happening and then your model exists here. And you can time a daily reversal on the M15 or the M5, assuming you've done these steps properly and you've gone to the H4 and you've gone to the H1. And we're going to show you what that looks like when we get to the real chart examples in hindsight. And then a live example or as live as I can get of a trade I took with you guys on stream and in Telegram and in the Haven using this exact model.
So the second thing I want to discuss here, right, I mentioned trading the daily reversal. The next thing is going to just be trading continuation on the high time frame. This one is very, very straightforward. All that we're looking for here, and it's kind of what I got into right here. Once you have the daily chart, put in a market structure shift like this, now you have confirmation that the reversal has already occurred or high odds. Obviously, this could do this, okay? So, don't be like, "Oh, but what if it doesn't? It's not always going to work. Nothing works 100% of the time." But if you come in to a daily order block in the lower part of the dealing range at the OT in confluent with the weekly chart and you get a daily market structure shift back into the direction of the high time frame, there's a good chance that price has probably put in its low and it's now ready to make its next higher high on the daily. Once you have this market structure shift here, any sort of daily order block, four-hour order block or fair value gap on the way back up to this daily range high, this daily liquidity objective, because we just took out internal. Where's the next level? External. Even though we're approaching premium here, we know that we just took out internal and we've got pretty high odds confirmation that this was a reversal. That's the higher low. You can now draw out daily order blocks, four-hour order blocks, fair value gaps, hourly order blocks, and fair value gaps along the way and simply enter on those for continuation towards our external range liquidity target. Or you can go apply the five-minute model, the 15-minute model within those H4 fair value gaps, H1 order blocks, fair value gaps that have happened after we already have confirmation of the reversal. And when you're using the model for this type of price action where you believe the low is already in and we're reversing, instead of having your stop below the order block or the H4 POI or the daily POI, you can actually put your stop right below that low because there's high odds that this is continuation. And if you get a really nice low time frame structure break and fair value gap, there's a good chance that price is aggressively trading higher and you can get away with that tighter stop. But hopefully this all makes sense here and it's all starting to come together in your mind. So there's two different things that you can do here, right? You can trade the daily higher low, right? The daily reversal, which is the primary thing I've been teaching you this entire series, is how to time where that higher low or lower high is going to form. But also, once that lower high, higher low does form and price starts trending, well, we know based on all the stuff we talked on this video, once we make that higher low at internal range liquidity, where's the next target? Equal highs, range highs. You can trade the models on the way up to those targets in the form of continuation.
The last piece of this episode is the silver bullet. So the silver bullet is a time-based setup that ICT has come up with and it's basically everything that we've already discussed in the last few videos but condensed and happening during a specific one-hour time slot. So ICT has three of these times that he calls, you know, kind of kill zones where the silver bullet can occur. These are all New York time. Okay, so this is Eastern Standard Time. So there is 3 to 4 a.m. Okay, there is 10 to 11 a.m. and then there's 2 to 3 p.m. So this one is kind of the most common one. It's an hour after New York open. But these are three times where ICT hypothesizes that the institutional algorithms are more active and are more likely to, you know, send volume into the market and create this one specific setup. And if you find this setup occurring during one of these time frames, one of these three-hour long windows, it's more likely to play out because it's institutionally algorithmically sponsored. Now, if that sounds like a bunch of mumbo jumbo BS, I have no comment. But what I can say is if you just think about it logically, right, this is right before market closes. This is one hour after the session happens, right? Session opens, at least the New York session, and this is right after the Asian session ends. So, it kind of makes sense that these are areas or times of day at least, where there's likely to be some volume. And the entire idea here is during this 10 to 11:00 a.m. session, you want to look for price to sweep liquidity, break structure, create a fair value gap, and then trade in the other direction. Well, what does that sound like? That sounds like one of our entry models. It also sounds like potentially the AMD for the day. Maybe this is your accumulation overnight during the Asian range. This is your manipulation that occurs early in the maybe opening of the New York session, right? And then your distribution occurring into the remainder of the session, the rest of the day, right? And then maybe this is when it's going to go and manipulate and put in the high of the day. So, is there a secret, you know, algorithm that is controlling the markets in the way that ICT believes it is? I have no idea. What I can tell you is from testing this stuff, which I highly suggest that you do, if you find a five-minute model play out in line with your high time frame analysis and it happens to occur during this window, it has a higher hit rate based on my research, my data. No different than I mentioned in our AMD lesson, Tuesday and Wednesday. Oftentimes you had the you know high or low right high of week low of week right and if I had a AMD play out and the manipulation occurred on a Tuesday right that's why Monday's range strategy works really well I found that yeah more often than not that ended up being the low of the week now not everything works 100% of the time not every five-minute model you see during this silver bullet window is going to work but that's effectively at a very basic level what the silver bullet is we're going to do a deep dive into kill zones on their own. So, we'll get more into this specifically in those videos, but I wanted to introduce it here and you could see how it ties in with stuff that we just learned about the five and 15-minute model and stuff that we learned with the AMD cycles. Keep in mind, I am a crypto trader primarily. Many of you, if you're watching me, probably are. The crypto markets trade 24/7. These concepts, a lot of them from ICT were based on the futures and the FX market. So, I don't think crypto adheres to the kill zones and these windows nearly as much as traditional markets do. However, 10 to 11:00 a.m. is still a high volatility time for crypto. It's during the New York session. And as crypto starts to trade more and more like traditional finance, which we're already seeing, just because crypto itself is becoming more institutionalized, but also because we're starting to allow everything be traded on chain. You can now trade the NASDAQ on Hyperliquid 24/7. You're going to be able to trade the NASDAQ on Breakout 24/7. Use code MAIN for a discount. We might see these work even better with crypto as that transition to more kind of traditional trading hours occurs. Earlier on in my crypto career, crypto traded oftentimes very asynchronous to the traditional finance markets. Absolutely. Now, there's periods of time where crypto is like a derivative of NASDAQ or the S&P. It's trading lockstep. And again, we'll cover kill zones more in depth in phase four.
Let's go over some real chart examples. And I'm actually going to start with the same example I used on the five-minute model last video because I want to really reinforce what I was talking about the start of the video. How you need H4 H1 confirmation before just going and shorting in this instance any five-minute fair value gap. So again, we have our bearish context off the weekly, right? In about 30 seconds there, clearly the weekly is bearish. So, as we approach this fair value gap, our bias is for downside. Now, we're down at the daily chart. Same dealing range, same bearish bias as we trade above the 50%, meaning we're into the premium here. I think we came just shy of the 61.8. So, we're pretty much at the OT. Our bias is bearish. Now, like I said, you're not just immediately zooming in here and shorting every single five-minute break-in structure and fair value gap. If you remember from the last video, the next thing we did was go down to the H4 chart and we actually showed that the H4 was starting to reverse. And not only that, the daily right there also breaks structure, giving you early confirmation that indeed this is the daily reversal. But going to the lower time frame, we can get in more granular and ideally a little more early. So the next step was to go down to the H4 chart. So now we're in that daily order block, but I'm not zooming into the M5. There is going to be multiple M5 triggers in this area that are not going to work immediately, right? You need to wait and get that clue that the reversal is actually going to happen. And so the way I was able to time that M5 reversal that ended up that daily reversal that ended up being on the M5 and going all the way down to the range lows is because really I'm using the H4. We have an H4 bearish order block and a market structure break within the daily bearish order block, which is within the weekly bearish fair value gap, which is in the weekly and daily premium of the dealing range. So now we have a ton of high time frame confluence that price wants to reverse. We want to see that daily higher low form. And now on a significant time frame being the H4, I have an even tighter area to look. So rather than wait for the daily to break structure down there, I can look in here and assume that this H4 bounce is potentially a lower high because we've broken structure and we're within this high time frame area where we're looking for bearishness. Again, I'm guessing, right? I'm guessing this could have traded like this before reversing. But the fact that we have this broken structure, this bearish order block in line with all the high time frame stuff that I just mentioned, now when I zoom in here and look for my model to avail itself, it's higher probability. So, within this H4 bearish order block, now I've zoomed in to the low time frame. This happened to be the M5 chart. And I can find that market structure break, that fair value gap, and I can use that to enter. I'm not entering on all the ones over here because I wasn't in the H4 OB yet. I wasn't entering on this move up here because I didn't have that confirmation that the H4 was going down. I'm waiting until we get in here. That's the difference. I'm not timing the daily reversal based on the M5. I'm looking for the M5 to reverse based on either the H4 or the H1 within the daily, which is within the weekly. Okay, in this instance, it ended up being that this was not just the perfect short. This went all the way down to the range lows.
We got another example of continuation here. So, if you remember from earlier in the video, the continuation setup is valid because once we have this breakdown here, any sort of bearish setup on the downside here, we can look as an opportunity to short again. So, when we rally up here and then make another lower high and then another market structure break, that's where that continuation setup's forming. Now, both of these are arguably continuation setups because on the H4, you have a break in structure already. You could have just shorted this H4 order block with your stop above there. But since this is the top of the move, I would treat it like a reversal, have my stop above that H4. Now, in this instance, I showed the example with the stop being actually I had it above the H4 there because we're trying to basically time the top of the move. But at any point once this move is in motion, right, and we have another structure break there and another structure break there, any of these H4 order blocks, any of these H4 bearish fair value gaps here, I can zoom in to the M15 and the M5 and look for the model to appear there and play that as a continuation. So reversal and then these ones would be continuation. So I'm not timing the daily reversal based on the M5. The H4 told me that this reversal is probably going to happen. and we had a structure break lower high into an order block. I'm just using the model on the lower time frame to dial in a tighter entry. So rather than entering here with my stop there, I'm getting in here with my stop there.
So on the weekly here, we have ETH clear bullish range, bullish fair value gap. We have a bullish bias based on the weekly. Moving down to the daily, you could argue we have a tighter dealing range here, but we're still bullish, right? Weekly is bullish. Daily has its own fair value gap. Within the weekly fair value gap, we even have a week a daily market structure break. So price comes in, tags that daily fair value gap, reverses, puts in a daily market structure break in line with the high time frame direction, giving you a clue that, hey, this pullback is over. It's time to go back up now, right? In line with the weekly. So, while we're going to be hunting a reversal here, that continuation setup I talked about, that occurs right here. Okay, daily is already in an uptrend. And we just had a daily pullback give us a market structure shift. That's our clue that this daily higher low is in and we're about to go make a new higher high on the daily, which ultimately happens. You can see here there's your continuation setup. So, we're going to look for the M15 model in here using the lower time frame, but you can also go look for it to form in here. It works not on its own, not just going and looking for any random M15 fair value gap and breaking structure. We're doing it within the context of the daily. And when we get down to the H4 and the H1, we'll have even more context. So, now we're looking at the H4 chart. There's that daily market structure break level. Well, on the H4, I see a lot of information here that might give me a clue that we are trying to put in a daily low. Okay? Because that information needs to come from the H4 and the H1 first before we go to the lower time frame. I see an H4 SFP right into the discount, right into that daily fair value gap. I also see a H4 breaker, right, which is this box right here. It's the up move before the move down that took out a low. So there's a breaker that then gets flipped. We trade above that breaker. It forms its own fair value gap. Price ends up continuing higher from there. So there's an H4 breaker right here and an H4 sweep. That's some useful information that hey, we saw a bullish H4 breaker because there's a H4 market structure shift. So we have an H4 model technically, right? We're looking for a break in structure and a fair value gap. You could argue that, hey, I don't even want to go to the low time frame. I'm entering right here on the fair value gap. There's your breaking structure. There's your fair value gap. Stop at the low. What's wrong with that trade? Nothing. But we can refine even further because we have all of this high time frame confluence. We can go down another time frame. Also, I don't know if you see this, but again, when you look at charts as much as me, this stuff jumps out at you. Does this not look AMD, right? You see it? Accumulate, manipulate right into the daily fair value gap, right into the weekly fair value gap into the discount. The distribution itself occurs and it uses an H4 fair value gap to send itself higher. So, it's not just a random 15-minute model in the wild, right? It's within the context of all of this stuff. Now, we've drilled in even more. Okay, we're on the hourly chart at this point. Well, what do we have here? I have an hourly SFP, right? It's that same H4 SFP, but the hourly market structure break occurs even earlier to the point where you could argue I can enter on this hourly breaker right here. I have an hourly breakage structure, an hourly fair value gap, an hourly SFP, which is also an H4 SFP, which is also in the daily fair value gap in the weekly fair value gap in the discount. I could enter on this pullback right here. This would be an H1 model. It's literally just doing this on the hourly. That's exactly what this is on the hourly right here. Why not just enter on that? You totally can. But now that we have all of this information and I've stacked up all of these high time frames down, how can I have confidence that this might be a daily higher low, a daily reversal? Well, from top down, everything's lining up. And I can go even lower and say, well, what's the exact moment this reversal is occurring? And here we are on the M15 chart. So, we are now within that four-hour breaker. Here's your H1 market structure break. Your H1 breaker is here. And is this not just the M15 model, which is the H1 model, which is the H4 model just zoomed in. So, instead of getting in on the hourly over here, or the H4 up here, we can enter in on quite literally the M15 breaking structure. There's your low fair value gap. Test it. Stop goes below the entire zone. Okay, which I don't have on the chart here. You can't quite see it, but below the entire zone. It would be just down there. And we're now getting in super super tight, super super dialed. And then that continuation play that I talked about. Well, here's that H4 fair value gap. Do we not have a breaking structure and a fair value gap here on the 15-minute that gets tagged? Stop below that low right there. Here's your reversal setup. Here's your continuation setup. What's h? And then what happens just above here, the daily market structure break. You could go and then find another setup in there. So I hope that this answers the questions of that commenter of the last video. You can indeed time a daily, even weekly reversal as low as the five-minute or the M15 if you do everything that I just showed you here and it all lines up in the same way. Now, is it going to work every time? Of course not. But this is exactly how I trade and it doesn't give me trades every day.
But it gives me a few trades a month, sometimes a trade every week. And if you combine that with Ethereum, Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid, a bunch of other assets, all of a sudden you have a plethora of opportunities to choose from. And most importantly, you understand the logic. You don't need to take this trade or this trade. You can find multiple trades within this move here, understanding top-down analysis, liquidity, market structure, all the things we've talked about, and then using the M5 or the M15 model as the way to actually enter. It becomes totally up to you when you understand the concepts and you know how to put them together. I'm just showing you high probability areas where they might all play out in the direction and favor that you want them to. But there's going to be opportunities to take trades throughout the chart. You don't have to wait for this picture-perfect opportunity. As long as you're doing top-down analysis, you're going to get these types of opportunities every so often, and they work really, really well. But you don't have to go down to the M15 or the M5 if you don't want to. I just showed you you could have used the H4 for an entry there, the H1, but the M15 gave you just a slightly better entry, right? But it was based on the weekly, the daily, the H4, and the H1. It wasn't based just on the M15.
So, the best I can do for showing this to you guys live is showing you a really recent trade that I took using the exact model that I've just taught you in the last couple videos here. If you want to see this play out live, go watch my last couple live streams. We identify this trade as it's happening on Telegram and in the live streams, and then you see the entire thing play out. And I'm not using anything that you haven't learned in these videos already. The only thing that is different in this example than everything I've showed you in these videos so far is the weekly here is bearish, and I'm taking a long. The daily is also bearish, and I'm taking a long. But the reason I'm taking a long is because we just made a new low on the weekly. We put in a weekly SFP, and we have a draw on liquidity. So my expectation is the weekly is going to make a lower high. Right now, for what I've taught you is if the weekly is bearish, we actually shouldn't take any trades until we get a short setup. Maybe here, maybe it occurs up here. I don't know. That's the trade I'm teaching you to find. But if you know, or if you believe, if I believe that the weekly is about to make a lower high, there's still a long trade from here to here. And the reason there's still a long trade from here to here is if I'm correct, the most optimal place for the weekly to make a lower high is in this fair value gap or in this order block up here. Which means if we're trading down here and I see a weekly SFP, there's a potential trade idea here. I don't think you guys should be looking for these types of trades early on. Only trade directly with the high time frame trend. Again, everything I'm trying to teach you guys here is like from a beginner level. If the weekly and daily are bullish, you only look for longs. If the weekly and daily are bearish, you only look for shorts. I've been doing this long enough that even though the weekly and daily are bearish, I understand that there's a long trade here, but it's counter-trend, and I keep that in mind. I'm not expecting this long to go to here, you know, with my profit-taking, etc. So, weekly is bearish, but we put in a bullish SFP, and I think we're due for a bounce before a lower high. So, I have enough reason based on the weekly and the daily to look for long.
So, now I've zoomed into the daily chart here. Now, the weekly is bearish. My expectation is we're going to trade up to here. But if you look on the daily at the weekly range lows, we put in an SFP on the weekly, which is this black line here. We also put an SFP on the daily. So, we have a weekly and a daily bullish SFP. And I think price can trade up for here. That's enough reason for me to believe that there might be a long opportunity here on the lower time frames, even though it's counter-trend. Okay? Now, outside of that, everything I'm about to show you is stuff that you already know. So, on the H4, you have an argument that we're bullish. Now, the H, the daily might be doing this, but during these bounces, there's going to be a period of time where the H4 is in an uptrend, and then ultimately, it's going to reverse, and then it's going to be in a downtrend. We're going to get that daily lower high. But I can trade this counter-trend bounce. And so on the H4, I mark out here's that SFP we have. I'm marking out this entire candle. It's like a raid candle, but it's also effectively a breaker, right? The up candle for the move down that created that daily and weekly SFP. You also have, I think fair enough to say, a bullish order block here on the H4 cuz we broke structure right here. And then we broke structure again here. And we have an H4 fair value gap. So because I believe the daily and weekly are going to bounce because of the SFP and us being at the range lows and us having a draw on liquidity in the form of a fair value gap above us. The range lows external range liquidity. We just took that out. What's the next target? That internal range liquidity above us. I believe that's where price is going to draw to next, which it has been. And on the H4 here, I have some bullish points of interest. I have a raid candle/breaker and I have a nice fair value gap that it's created. You could enter right here. Fair value gap. Stop there. There's nothing wrong with that trade. This is 2R all day. But I want to be a little bit more precise.
Now, we're down on the H1 and we have even more detail. So, because the H1's a lower time frame, I can see the reversal that the daily is trying to put in with the SFP alone occur even sooner. There's a daily structure break. There's a daily SFP. That alone, daily breaker is a setup. Daily SFP right there. So, I already have a reversal here. I have this on the daily. Like that is what just printed on the daily. But this is also a 4-hour SFP plus breaker. It's a daily SFP. It's also a weekly SFP. And it's at the range lows after taking out external. So, I'm not just taking some random daily breaker and SFP and longing it. I have confluence. And yeah, you could long this. There's a, there's a H1 SFP within the H1 breaker here. Stop below the low. So, that's even tighter than the H4 setup. The H4 setup was here. Stop here. Now, by going down one more time frame, my stop can be here and my entry could be here. Okay?
But we can zoom in another time. Now, we're on the 15-minute chart. We still have all that high time frame confluence that we're looking for price to reverse. And all I'm doing by going to lower and lower time frames, I'm seeing that reversal happen earlier and earlier. Price doesn't reverse on the 4-hour till here. It doesn't reverse on the 1-hour until, you know, here. Let's say what? I forget, but you know what I mean. Well, on the M15, the reversal happens even earlier. There's your market structure break. There's your fair value gap. Is this not just the M15 model? Nice little SFP there as well. And this is all occurring within that 4-hour zone and that H1 zone. So, I'm not just longing the first M15 market structure break and fair value gap. I'm longing the M15 market structure break and fair value gap at a very particular spot with very particular context. You want to talk continuation? Well, now that price is clearly going up, is this not a market structure break and a fair value gap right there? Stop below the 15-minute low cuz this is now within that higher time frame zone. We've already reversed here. This is the H4 reversal. So, now I can take a continuation play. This is the daily reversal up here. You can look for longs now on any sort of 15-minute setup now that the daily is turned. But that's why this works so well. And yes, you can go even one more time frame down to the M5 and within this 15-minute fair value gap, the M5 is in a downtrend. And then what happens? Break in structure. 5-minute fair value gap within the 15-minute fair value gap. And then even over here, here's that H4 level. There's that other M15 fair value gap I showed you. And look what happens here. That's your daily MSB that is occurring right here. This is now continuation mode, right? Fair value gap, breaking structure. And there's, there's more stuff here that you can't, I'm not even marking out, but I'm just trying to show you you can dial in to these points in time by doing everything that I showed you. You go weekly, daily, H4, H1, then down to your M15 or your M5. And the H1/2H1 system is just this. The H4/M15 system is just this. But you still need to know the higher time frame stuff. And this is exactly how I trade. Okay?
And I have lots of people say, "Well, why do you share exactly how you trade? Aren't you worried about edge erosion and people stealing your stuff?" First of all, the vast majority of price action traders that you see on crypto Twitter, or at least a lot of them, many of the big names, they learned how to trade from me years ago in my Discord. I've been sharing this stuff. I have a thousand YouTube videos going back to 2018. I've made many millionaires, many millionaires, multi-millionaires, teaching them this stuff. But the thing is, the vast majority of people will never take the time to actually practice this stuff, watch these videos. You can already see it in this video series. The most viewed video is the first one, and then the drop-off starts to occur because most people will never see things through. They'll never put in the time and effort to find out if something works. They'd rather say, "Well, there's no way that that works. Why is he sharing it for free? Why does he do this? Why does he do that?" rather than, there's nothing wrong with being skeptical, but then go find out for yourself. Most people will never do that, uh, and that's to their detriment. So that's why I'm putting these videos all together for you guys so you know. And as my final piece of evidence here, this is the exact trade I took. I'm not just doing this in hindsight. I took this exact trade with the Haven and in Telegram and on stream. So, this is what I actually posted in the Haven and Telegram and talked about on stream. I said, "Hey guys, we have a daily SFP here, weekly SFP. We're at the bottom part of the range and we just printed a structure break here on the hourly chart at that key high time frame inflection point." So, the weekly, the daily, the H4, all that stuff that I just showed you, I'm showing you that the end result of that here. I knew all of that going into this. I knew this was the daily sweep and I said, "Hey, if we get some sort of sign of reversal on the H1, I think it's worth either entering directly on the H1 itself, which is what I end up doing here, or like I showed you in those other charts, you could have zoomed in and entered tighter. I like doing the H1 because I'm an old man now and I don't really like to be staring at the charts all the time. But you could have got a much tighter entry like I showed you on the M5 or the M15, but the H1 worked just fine. There's your limit order. There's your stop loss below the low. That's your setup and that's your results. So, we entered right there and this is now the H1/2 chart. It traded all the way up. And where is my target? Well, I'm looking for where that lower high might form. This is that weekly dealing range here. I think that lower high might form somewhere up here, maybe even higher. So, I'm willing to take a long down here, but I'm aware that I need to take profit on the way up because it's counter-trend.
So, the key takeaways primarily are the M15 and M5 model are the same. One just uses the M5, one uses the M15, but you're looking for the market structure break, the fair value gap, and the most important part is that this happens within the context of the high time frame. I'm not just taking every market structure break and fair value gap. And I hope after beating it into you throughout this entire episode, you understand what I mean by that. Second key takeaway is there's two different types of setups, right? There's the reversal and then there is the continuation setup. Each has their own positive and negative. Continuation setups are going to be higher probability. Reversal setups are going to give you the best entry, the best risk-reward most often. But you can use this model differently based on where we are in the chart. And if you understand the weekly to the daily to the H4 to the H1, by the time you get to those lower time frames, you should know exactly what you're looking to see, and exactly where. Okay, I can't make it any more easy and direct than that. Lastly, the silver bullet is just a time-based version of this model and it's occurring during one of those time windows like the 8 to 11:00 a.m. New York time, etc. Okay, so they're the same thing just using different time frames, but they're based on the context of the high time frame. We have reversals, we have continuation, we have the silver bullet. That's all for this video. Thank you guys so much for watching. That's all I got for episode 14. Please keep the comments coming. I do my best to read all of them, even if I don't respond. And as you can see from this video, uh, it's going to help me improve the content that I'm making, okay? So, if you have a question, there's something you don't understand and I think it makes sense to add to the video, I'll do it just like I did with this video. And hopefully it helped. The next video is going to be all about a checklist of things to look for when not to take a trade. We've been talking about looking for trades. Well, guess what? You can have a checklist for when not to take a trade. That's going to be episode 15. As always, if you guys like these videos, let me know in the comments. Share these, like, subscribe, comment, share them again, force your family to watch them. It really helps me out. I've been working really hard on this series. For all things Trader, go to tradermain.com. You could try all this stuff out at breakout. Use code Maine for a discount. You want the free newsletter, Discord, Telegram, it's all there. I appreciate y'all. I'll talk to you all in the next.