Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful trading week and a, you know, wonderful week overall.
So, this week was a fantastic week, right? In terms of over-analysis, which is basically the thing that we are focused on, right? We want to know where price is going to go because once we know where price is going to go, then trading will be the easy part, right? That's correct. So, exactly what we expected to happen on Monday happened, which was the Monday one-shot-one-kill, right? So, that's not the typical one-shot-one-kill, which, you know, that would be just trying to find or locate the high or low of the week. The Monday one-shot-one-kill is located the high or low of Monday, right? So, there's a difference. Just as every other day, every single day has its own one-shot-one-kill, right? So, basically, you already know what that is, and we're going to go deeper into it, and we're going to investigate, you know, everything that led to that, right? It's just, you know, sequential SMT between the current quarter's Monday, the current weekly cycle's Monday, and the previous weekly cycle's Friday. All right.
So, we stated that the best days to trade this week, which is usually the case for every first quarter of the month, right? It's Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, right? Not Thursday and Friday, even though there will be, you know, volatility on Friday, right? The best days to trade are Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. And just looking at that, what does that mean? What does that say? Does it mean anything? Yes, it does. Due to the fact that, right, we have this H news event, one from P, right, which is usually not the best time to trade, but, you know, it will yield us some volatility, which we can pay attention to after the news event has been, you know, released. Monday, right, is usually the best day to trade. So, during the first quarter of the month, and this is something that you must pay attention to and something that you must study, right, to see that, oh, it usually happens. It's not just random or anything like that. Whenever there's sequential SMT, right, or the Monday one-shot-one-kill model, which, you know, occurs between the previous week's Friday and the current week's Monday, that will usually form, you know, the higher low of the day for Monday, and sometimes the higher low of the week.
So, right now, we'll be going into the price action of the FX triad, right? First, let me go to the forward time frame where we can, you know, pay attention to the monthly, you know, sequential SMT of the previous month, which, you know, gave birth to this leg of price action, right? So, looking at the previous month, right, the price action of Q3 and Q4, it is very obvious, right, to see that we have sequential SMT here, right? We have the dollar, right, burning above the previous week's high last week. And remember, right, Q4, remember that Q4 is the best, you know, one of my favorite quarters, why? It's prone, it's made for reversals, right? Okay. The Euro, you can see that we ran below this low, but for the Great British pound, we did not go below this low right here, right? So, this is the reason why, you know, we had all of this uptrend in regards to the British pound and the Euro, and this is why we had the dollar index falling, right? So, remember, right, before, you know, well, right as the week began, and looking at the US dollar index, when price was looking at my cursor right now, when price was literally around here, right, we expected lower prices, right? And remember what I said? I said that the only reason why, you know, we would expect price to go down would be why? If we had sequential SMT here, right? Which occurred between Friday, the previous Friday's high, and the current Monday's high for the US dollar index.
So, here, right, we'll look deeper into this. And remember, once again, this is not, you know, just, you know, us talking about hindsight data. We never do that. If we don't talk about, you know, the movement beforehand, then we don't have anything to talk about because it doesn't make sense to talk about something that you don't see, right? And don't trust anyone that, you know, claims to be able to, you know, read price action and then, you know, tries to do that, you know, set thing. So, this right here, which is Monday, right, looking at the but on the chart now, I'm looking at what the US dollar, right? So, and I can make it easier for you to see, right? This time, right, this segment of time right here is Monday. The previous quarter is Friday, right? And this, remember, this is a model in itself, you know, finding the high, the low of the day for Monday, right? We had the US dollar index failed to break above Friday's high. Then we had the Euro failed to break below Friday's low, right? But then we had the British pound trade below and close below the previous close of Friday, right? Right here, you can see that the open and close of this candle right here is the same, right? So, when the, when price closed, it just closed with wicks, right? This in itself, right here, is, you know, a precision swing point. This is due to the fact that the candles are unbalanced between the British pound and the Euro, right? At all times, we should have price being symmetrical between the Euro and the British pound, right? Right? But here, you can see that this was not symmetrical, right? And then afterwards, you can see that we had the swing point, right? This swing point right here for the Euro being to the right of the candle, which, you know, gave rise to the precision swing point of the British pound, right? So, again, right, this, these candles right here, both of them give rise to a crack and correlation itself, right? So, this is not sequential SMT, right? This is a crack and correlation between swing points after a precision swing point has already been established in the Great British pound, right? So, when we had this candle right here for the Euro form after we had the candle which traded below the previous Friday's low, this Monday for the British pound, sent price higher, right? Here would be, you know, the perfect where I, you know, I saw a lot of you getting in right here, which is, you know, good that you took note of the precision swing point, right?
So, now looking at the Euro, and I'll make this a little bit clearer for you, right? So, this candle right here, or the Euro, it's not a point, right? This one is, right? So, when this candle closed here, right, with this candle in the middle, looking at the British pound right here, right? And one to the left higher than the one in the middle, and the one to the right also higher than the one in the middle, this became a precision swing point. But due to the fact that this candle right here, right, it was not a precision swing point, once we had, we had this one trade below this one, this would be a high probability, you know, run on liquidity, which should cause price to reverse, due to the fact that we already had something pointing to the reversal of price, which is the sequential SMT, right? Here, right? Remember, while price was here, what did we want to see? Higher prices, which we did, in fact, see here, right? Here, this is a precision swing point, right? Right here, this candle right here. And now we're looking at the US dollar, right? So, this candle right here, this is a precision swing point. And pay attention to where this one forms, right? It is the last candle of Monday and the first candle of Tuesday. And Tuesday begins actually at the opening of the Asian session on Monday for, we, you know, focused on Eastern Standard Time, right? Right here. And, you know, we're looking at why we had price really back here, right? Here, in the dollar, we had price failed to break below this low. In the Euro, we had price break above this high. So, this right here, you know, is partial sequential, right? It's not, you know, as high probability as one would like, but it is why we had price break below here, and it's usually short-lived, right? It's usually short-lived, but it's what caused the reversal. And the reason why this would be seen as partial sequential SMTs because the low of the week for the US dollar, the high of the week for the Euro, right, is what a precision swing point. Also, you can see, you know, something similar to what we just took note of here for the Euro, right here.
So, so this candle right here for the Euro, right, is what? This right here is the same thing that I showed you here for the low of the week. Do you see? It's the same thing. We had this candle right here trade above this candle, the high of this candle for the Euro. Here, for the US dollar, we did not trade below this candle. So, that in itself is a crack and correlation. And pay attention to where the candles form, like, remember, pay attention to where the candles form, right? So, the precision swing point here was left alone. Price did not return to it, and it's not an order block. Price traded down, failed to touch it, rallied up here. In the Euro, what happened? Price traded above it, then collapsed. So, now, remember how we determine our, we determine the high of the low of the range, right? So, this right here could be the high of the range, right? For Euro, right? So, any pullback within, you know, this string of down close candles, if price went above the percentage, that would be premium, right? Correct. Also, right, you can see that, remember how we talked about, you know, how we determine ranges. So, now this is the higher range for the US dollar, and this is the lower range for the US dollar, right? This is a precision swing point, and this is also a precision swing point. Look at the Euro, not the Euro, the Great British pound. Do you see it? Yes, it's there, right? So, this candle right here, right? And don't pay attention to, you know, the wicks right now, we're looking at the bodies of the candles, right? But due to the fact that, you know, in the Euro, not Euro, the Great British pound, right, the bodies are, you know, the same, the same price that we close here, the same price we open here, we can just use this one. If we went to a lower time frame, it would be easier. I can see that the same thing happened here, right? So, this is also a precision caused by the precision swing point, right? So, what happened here, which, you know, is important, is that we literally, right, cut above this candle, right? That's what happened. That's exactly what happened right here, right? We cut above this candle right here, meanwhile, whatever was going on here, right? And then this in itself is not SMT, but is it? Is it a crack and correlation, which we will touch upon? And this is how we get these ranges, right? Remember, and the most liquidity rests below these ranges, right? Remember what I just said? The most liquidity rests what? Below this range. Make sure that you're using the same broker that I am, right? Capital.com for the US dollar index, and I use FXTM for the Euro and the British pound, right? So, this is just us, you know, touching upon price action, anyways, here, right? There's a precision swing point here. You can see that price ran below, then returned back into the range, and that's due to the fact that, right, also, right, we had, you know, sequential SMT here, but the liquidity below precision swing points is immense. It is a lot, right? It is a lot. And this down close candle here, as you can see, right, which is the low of the day for the Euro, it is a precision swing point as well. Do you see that? Can't make this up, right? Literally can't make this up. This down close candle for the Euro, that's a precision swing point as well. This candle right here, which pierced this precision swing point, then returning into the range. Also, we had SMT, right? Price failed to take out the low of yesterday in the British pound, but in the Euro, it did. So, also in the US dollar, it also did so, right? And you can see that the precision swing point, right, was the high of the day for the US dollar. It was the low of the day for the Euro, and also the, you know, caused, you know, this expansion like in the British pound. So, you can see that, right, the precision swing points, you know, they can be used for many things: identifying ranges, spotting the low, high of the day. Usually, whenever we have sequential SMT and we have a precision swing point follow, you don't really need anything else, right? And remember, pay attention to what happened here, right? Even though this candle, looking at the Euro USD, even though this candle right here, you know, caused the precision swing point in the Great British pound, it wasn't one, but there was a crack and correlation between the candles, why? Because they should be the same, right? This was a delay in price action, right? So, here, when you see this happen, you can expect the next candle for the Euro to do what? Be the low of the day, or the low of the session, or the low of the 90-minute cycle that you, you know, trading with. And remember, once again, right, I got to keep saying this, it's not hindsight because it looks that way. Even if you missed it and you don't want to watch the previous stream, then you're going to be like, then he's just talking about, you know, we talked about all of this before it happened, and they expected it to happen. And we did the same thing for the index futures as well, which we will go to next.
So, currently, what do we have? We have liquidity below this low, right? The US dollar, liquidity below this low right here. And let me annotate it. So, right below this low is external liquidity. Above this high, we have buy-sell liquidity, external liquidity as well. What would, you know, cause us to see reversal? You already know it's not just, oh, price trades above this, I'm going to short now. No, that's not what it is, right? You need to see sequential, right? So, this right now is the range that we're working within, and it's Wednesday. And also, most of what we expect to happen already happened. So, you know, unless you see something really clear-cut, don't stress yourself, right? Right? So, this is what we are within, right? And now, at the moment, you can see that we are within a range where both we are, you know, consolidating, you know, and this is what we want to see, right? We already got a move, and now the fact that we have price consolidating right now shows us that, or this is telling us that, what? We will be getting some sort of volatility pretty soon, right? So, once there's sequential SMT, what will happen? There should be a precision swing point after that. What if all of that is confirmed by intermarket sequential SMT? Sequential SMT, price will reverse as it always does, right?
Now, looking at the E&P and the Nasdaq, and today we have the US dollar right here, right? Due to the fact that, remember that I, we, I said that we are no focus on what the E-mini S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, right? Due to the fact that the Dow is totally out of sync, right? And also, it is, you know, extremely weak and won't give us the volatility that, you know, we need. And also, we don't trade it. We just use it for, you know, bias. We don't trade it. We never trade it. So, here, this red box right here, do you, you know, what this is? To remember what it is? This is a precision. What is this? Let me ask, what is it, right? The level between a higher time frame PD and a true open, which, right, this is a true month open of the previous month. The previous true month open. So, this is a precision level, right? So, we had price trade into right here. This was a weekly fair value gap, which we did highlight last week, right? And we did highlight this previous, well, this Sunday, not previous Sunday. So, the price traded into the weekly fair value gap. What happened afterwards? And, right, this is a setup in itself. And remember, we talked about this before it happened, right? Literally, it's not, it seems like if someone else watches, they're going to be like, oh, that's hindsight. You can do that. Yes, we can, right? So, we had what? What's this? Sequential SMT between Thursday and Friday last week, right? Due to the fact that that happened and we traded below the true month open last, last week, we're in a new month right now. And this is something that, you know, you should take into consideration, right? Whenever, hope that you're writing notes, right? Whenever, you know, we're within the first week of the month, whatever price action, you know, that was or gave rise on the or, but within the previous week, you know, which is Q4. So, if we end Q4 on this candle right here, or this candle right here, what did this mean, right? It's prone for reversal. Reversal in Q1 gives birth to continuation. Now, reversal in Q4 gives birth to continuation in Q1, right? So, we're going to get an expansion, which is what we got, right? So, here, right, you can see that we had Monday form, Monday's range form. And if we don't pay attention to this week right here, looking at the S&P 500, you can see that we closed below Monday's close on Tuesday. What would that be? Manipulation. So, we have a M. This will be the true open, right? This will be the true open right here. Let me put it. The true open right here. That's the true open, right? We traded below the true open, then expanded. Right here, we have this fair value gap. Why didn't price return to this fair value gap? Even in the Nasdaq, we do not have price return to this fair value gap. Why? That's due to the fact that we filled this larger fair value gap already, right? Whenever we have price fill a fair value gap, the upcoming fair value gap afterwards will more than likely not get returned to, which is, you know, a breakaway gap, which I believe that I've spoken about already, right? So, yes, we wouldn't expect this gap to be filled, right? Also, right, if you look here, you can see that we had a crack and correlation between this high and this high, right? Right here, we had a crack and correlation. Was this sequential? No, it was not. And that's why it failed because it wasn't. So, this is a real breaker. Look where, you know, these candles are. This is the breaker right here, these group of three candles. And now we're looking at the mini S&P 500, right? Everyone, literally people on Twitter, they claim that they know what, but, um, qu the series, they have no idea. There wish, let me just right here. So, if someone like screenshots it, they understand. So, here, right, we had what? Sequential SMT, right? And at the top right here, what was this? Yes, it was a crack and correlation, but it was not something that causes a reversal. It just causes a protraction phase, right? Which returns price right to rebalance this gap right here, okay?
Before we touch more upon this, right, looking at the S&P 500, let's go to the Nasdaq and look right here, right? This order block right here, Q order block, whatever that is. So, this order block right here, you can see it right here. Before price returned to it, there was no gap. Right? There was a gap here. Again, this is another crack in correlation, right? Yes, it was another crack and correlation. Why? Because the same thing that happened here did not happen here. And the only time that you will have price just going in a straight line, falling and falling and falling, when there is no crack and correlation. Once there's a crack, price will turn around. Also, these highs right here, right? Remember, these highs had to be taken out. Why? Because of this right here. This satisfies the algorithm, right? Basically, it's like we have, you know, pressure building in between this high and this low, between the sequential SMT and the market structure shift, right? So, pressure builds in between these two points, and this is where price actually gets, you know, this is where the, you know, market accumulates in between this area right here. Same thing on the daily time frame, weekly time frame, monthly time frame, you know, every single cycle is the same thing. So, between this low and this high, after we had the market structure shift, and remember, we talked about this before, like, you can, we don't talk about this before, and we talked about where we want to see price go, and I always say, what you need to wait for a crack and correlation. So, here, this itself was a crack and correlation. We already had sequential SMT here, but once we had the structure shift here, we didn't have one here, right? That's a structure shift. Immediately, this, you know, should be going into your, you know, insight as liquidity, right? This is a failure swing, which was not caused by sequential SMT, then it's not real, and it's as simple as that. What happened? Price fell back. There was no gap here. There was a gap here. Then what happened? Price expanded. Here, for the US dollar index, right? We had intermarket sequential SMT, right? So, this is intermarket sequential SMT. And here was what? SMT looking at the US dollar. Here, we had double the in again, which, as I said, usually forms higher low months. Happens, you know, for the weekly cycle, but the weekly cycle, you know, takes order from the higher time frame cycles, right? So, we did have sequential SMT here, and then here again, we had sequential SMT. And what's this? Intermarket sequential SMT. Price fell here. We were, we were bearish. Why? Because there was no bullish sequential SMT, right? We did not expect price to go back here. Why? Because it didn't have to. It wasn't supposed to because it's not programmed to do that. Price only changes direction when there is a crack and correlation. Price decides to do something when there is a crack and correlation. And if the current, you know, the crack and correlation is not reflecting upon a previous quarter, immediate previous quarter, then it will not work. This high right here is the high of Friday, previous Friday. And this high right here is Thursday, right? This candle right here was Thursday, right here, looking at the E-mini S&P. This low is what? Friday. This low, this low right here is Thursday, right? This low, price traded below this low in the US dollar. Did not trade above this candle at times, right? It doesn't really matter about the high if it's a high or low. It just matters if, you know, price trades above the candle or even touches the candle, which is something that we will get to once we, we fully understand this, right? Whenever you have the doubling effect of sequential SMT or intermarket sequential SMT or both, that gives price the long-term reversals. That's where price really turns around, right? And that's literally this right here is literally what we use to, you know, identify this drop in price. That's literally there was no, what? There was no nothing here that signified that price should be, you know, run above these highs. It shouldn't happen. It just shouldn't happen. And it's as simple as that, right? So, remember, pressure builds in between these types of, you know, fake sequential SMT or just regular, regular quote-unquote SMT, which usually gets everyone tripped up. They say, oh, SMT doesn't work because you didn't see the sequential SMT below, you didn't see that price traded into a precision level, then reversed, you didn't see this crack and correlation that happened here, and that's why people usually get tripped.
So, I hope that you guys, you know, took something from this. You know, I gave you guys the information on Sunday, and that's always what I will do. And this is how I will teach, and this is how, you know, it is, you know, this is just how it is. You just got to accept it. You have to pay attention, right? What do I point towards? I'm going to talk about the specific level, and for price to go there, the things that we study, the things that we usually expect must happen. It's not going to just turn around on a dime like that. No, it's just going to be a crack and correlation. You got to sit and you got to study, and that's what it is. There were like, you know, there were like a couple, you know, 20 people or so that, you know, left over the past couple months or so. They're like, oh, you don't hold my hand. I'm not going to do that. Well, I, I already do that, but I give you the tools. I tell you where it's going to go. I tell you what I respect. Our accuracy is insane, right? And that's how you're going to learn how to read price. I hope that you found this useful, and we will be back over this the course of this weekend. Right? Next week, we will, you know, be talking about more, you know, technical things, more technical concepts, and you will need to understand this, and you will need to understand everything from the previous live stream, or else you will literally be lost. Hope that you have a good day, and we will talk.
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All you want to me is a bre OB session. I am the Maring TT on burning the street. My can I ask you how many days can I go away without you?
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We
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Distance is a
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killer.
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Fire the of how many days can I go without you?
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