Transcription
So, welcome to our monthly meeting where I share with you the trading performances that I was able to achieve this month as a professional trader. And I will also share with you a little recap of the current situation, so notably the geopolitical situation. I think it's quite important with what happened this past week. I will also share with you a bit of the narrative around inflation and rate expectations, which is one of the big changes we saw in February. Rate divergence, rotations in stocks, which was also one of the major things in February. I also want to share with you the Bitcoin positions that I was able to execute, positions that I have been executing for the first time since April 2025. So I think this will obviously interest you. We will also go and look at my trading performances for February. You will see. Once again, like January, I was extremely selective. I took very few trades, but it paid off. Stay until the end of this video too because I have prepared a little surprise for you that I will send you for free. And then, as always at the end of the video, we will analyze my best trade, my worst trade on which I got slipped over the weekend, not crazy. And the most interesting trade and probably the trade on Yen that I executed. So with that, let's start directly with an explosion of the VIX in February. So the VIX, the volatility index, okay, which you can see right here at the end of February. We have an explosion and we are looking above twenty. Historically, when we are above twenty on the volatility index, so the VIX, it's generally risk-off movements, so investors panic. Obviously, this explosion of volatility is due to tensions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East. So, at the end of February, we had the military operation called Epic Fury between the United States and Iran with the first strikes. Uh Trump did it his special way. When I say it's quite special, it's that Trump is one of the presidents who, in my opinion, since I've been trading for over 10 years, pays the most attention to the stock market, so the American stock market. And so Trump doesn't attack Iran on a Thursday when the stock markets are open. No, Trump attacks Iran on a weekend when he knows that there can be no immediate reaction on the markets and that he has time to prepare, let's say, a response before Monday. So the attacks took place, it was Friday night, so as soon as the market closed. And obviously, we had gaps on Monday, notably on the oil market. Oil gapped by 5%. We also had a gap on gold, so safe haven gold exploded. So we have, as you can see, oil here which gapped, which opened, which corrected, and we went back up. Why did we go back up? Obviously, the Strait of Hormuz was closed, and it's through here that 20% of the world's oil transits. So obviously, this has a direct impact on oil supply, and as you know, price is simply supply and demand. So if demand remains the same but supply decreases, the price will explode. And so that's why we saw oil that was at 67 dollars and is today at 76 dollars at the time I'm making this video. So globally, what we are seeing is investors repricing a geopolitical risk premium relative to the situation. And what's interesting is that in the trades I was able to execute for February, one of these positions was precisely a purchase of gold. So the day before these attacks in Iran, a purchase of gold to prepare for this geopolitical risk. Here, we are within the Macro Trader Accelerator. I will put the link in the description. And so, as you can see, 4 days ago, I was able to share this trading idea on gold. Again, here, one might say it's just a technical triangle and so on. No, the reason behind it is always a more macroeconomic, more fundamental reason. And as I explained, the momentum opportunity for me here is very interesting with very good risk-reward profiles, and if there's one trade I want to hold over the weekend with US-Iran geopolitical risks, it's buying gold which could gap up on Monday. Fast forward to Monday, you saw it, where gold gapped and reached my target immediately. Again, all my trading ideas, I share them within the Macro Trader Accelerator. Now, more for this month of February, uh, we have this omnipresent geopolitical risk. This omnipresent geopolitical risk has also created a change in narrative regarding inflation and therefore indirectly regarding future rate expectations. What I mean by that is that at the beginning of February, traders, investors expected an accommodative pivot from central banks. That is to say, we were supposed to see rates continue to fall. That's what was priced in, that's what was expected. However, we first have several data points that changed the game a bit, notably the US PPI month-on-month which came out at +0.8%, well above expectations. We also have inflation that has been more persistent in the UK. We have Kevin Wuch who has been appointed as the next Fed chairman. Kevin Wuch is considered to be rather hawkish for the Fed. So I remind you, hawkish means someone who tends to want to raise interest rates. We also have, as I was telling you, inflation that is more sticky in England, so in the UK. So we obviously have the BOE, the Bank of England, which maintains a posture that has been, let's say, more cautious and has a bit of a "high for longer" narrative, so staying higher for longer. And let's say to add, I don't know if it's the cherry on top, I'd rather say it's this expression doesn't exist, but this can of gasoline on a flame, well, basically the thing that really worsens the situation regarding what I'm telling you. So we have some signs of inflation being more present. Another sign is also these latest PMI data we've seen. You should know that for PMIs, we have sub-components of PMIs. In one of these sub-components of PMIs, we have the prices paid which tend to give us information before actual inflation, so before the CPI. And then we can see these prices paid right here. Again, all the templates I'm showing you are templates available for download within the Macro Trader Accelerator. I'll put the link in the description, but we are seeing these latest prices paid data that are tending upwards and therefore forecast, so if you will, precede actual inflation and therefore could potentially make inflation rise again. So that's the first thing. And the other thing is, as I was talking about geopolitical risk, we saw oil prices rise. The price of oil is one of the most important variables in the calculation of global inflation. Okay? Simply. If the price of oil is much more expensive and you buy your bag of rice, and the rice is harvested in Vietnam, it's a stupid example, but it's harvested in Vietnam, this bag of rice that you buy for 2 euros in France, well, if the price of oil is much higher, it might cost you 2.50 euros, it might cost you 3 euros. Because just the act of transporting this bag of rice, since the price of oil, of gasoline, is more expensive, well obviously this bag of rice will cost more. And so this will increase inflation. This is called an inflationary shock. It's similar to what happened in the 70s and it revives the risk of what's called stagflation. Because again, if we are in a situation where central banks are aggressively lowering interest rates or printing money as was the case after Covid, it's a situation that will stimulate inflation, that will make inflation take off. So yes, it's bad, but at the same time, it will stimulate the economy and make the economy take off. So basically, that's why they did it after Covid, and so it stimulates an economy. So there's a positive, but it also stimulates inflation. So there's a negative. There's a positive with a negative. Okay. However, an oil shock like we are seeing due to geopolitical tensions, it makes oil prices skyrocket. So it causes an inflationary shock, which is the negative, but there's no positive like when you lower interest rates, which is economic growth. Okay? So here, we find ourselves in a situation where we have a negative and a negative. Okay? And to combat inflation which would be potentially too high, okay? And the impact on inflation, we don't see it yet, but it should potentially arrive with higher oil prices. To control this inflation, a central bank, notably the Fed, but this will impact all central banks in the world, to combat this inflation, their method is to cool down the economy, which should cool down inflation. Okay? So potentially raise interest rates to lower inflation. But then, the problem is if you have an economy that's a bit in bad shape and not doing ultra well, and inflation that's too high, so you want to lower inflation, well, indirectly to lower inflation, you are forced to lower both. So yes, maybe you solve the inflation problem, but you screw up the economy. So here the problem of stagflation, stagflation, I remind you, is that we are in a cycle, in a situation where we have strong inflation and weak growth. It's the worst thing. Otherwise, in terms of currencies, the big winner of this month of February was the Australian dollar. Tick tock. Australian dollar which you see right here. Okay. Going up a bit more. Hop. So we have the month of February, you can see the Australian dollar which has been in an uptrend since the beginning of this year 2026. We have rates in Australia that have been increased by 25 basis points this month of February and a very hawkish RBA. Now, a little surprise, I have created a complete fundamental report that recaps the month of February. So from a geopolitical point of view, from a central bank point of view. We will look, here it is. We will look at the macro overview, recap by currency. We will study all of this together, silver, oil, gold, etc., etc. It's a 10-page extremely complete report. To receive it, you just need to send me a message on Instagram. So my Instagram is displayed right here @elliot and you send me the word February. Okay? You send me the word February and I will send you this 10-page monthly macroeconomic report that recaps February completely for free, and you will see it will give you a fundamental and macroeconomic understanding of this last impeccable month compared to the majority of other traders. Now, I also told you that I would share my positioning on Bitcoin because it has changed. And so indeed, for the first time since April 2025, I was able to execute my first buy positions on Bitcoin. My first buy positions were executed at 65,000 dollars, so right here. And I want to explain to you why these Bitcoin purchases I made are absolutely not because I think we have reached the bottom and that the bear market is over and that from now on, we will go up. No. It's because for me, the current levels in terms of risk to reward for an investment over the next 3 years, the current prices are very interesting. The current prices are very interesting. And I remind you that I was able to sell a large part of my Bitcoin at 116,000 dollars. I was able to take my profits at 116,000 dollars and I shared it with all the members of the Macro Trader Accelerator and I even shared it for free on my Instagram again @aselliot and so my portfolio was very light, let's say in crypto. With this drop, you can imagine it's even lighter. So in the end, at these prices around 65,000 dollars, what I did was a portfolio rebalancing. Okay? I have very little crypto in my portfolio, I want to have a bit more, and so I bought some again, for me, and again, I don't have a magic ball, I don't know, but I don't think the bottom has arrived yet, and if I had to make a prediction on Bitcoin movements, I would expect something like this. So here indeed, we could see a return towards 85,000 dollars or even 90,000 dollars, I don't know. after which we go back down and then we come back and then we break the support, that people lose patience and we look for a bottom later in the year. Okay? And that would be, let's say, the literal classic cycle with 364 days of bear market. That's exactly what we saw in previous cycles. Otherwise, outside of the Bitcoin market, just on the indices, I'll share this quickly, but we see the indices are still blocked. When I say indices, I mean the S&P 500. S&P 500 which since the beginning of 2026-2026 started right here. We are up down up down up down up down. We are in a range. We can't break either up or down. I remind you, we are on a zone that started on weekly, it will be clearer. This zone here. Okay. I made a video for you which is displayed right here where I shared my expectations for the stock market in 2026. If you haven't already, I strongly invite you to go watch it. And with that, let's study together my trading performances for the month of February 2026. So, I am happy to announce that this second month of the year 2026 was a profitable month, was a positive month on which I took only three trades. So remember, two videos ago, I made a video where I was in a small chalet in the mountains, etc. So, indeed, I was skiing. So this first part, I don't know when I don't know when I got back, more or less around Valentine's Day. But so the first two weeks of February, basically, I traded almost nothing. And then the last two weeks, I traded but I was extremely selective. We had a lot of geopolitical tension so I was very careful. I was selective about my positions. I took only three trades and out of these three trades, two of them went through. Only one was a loser. Again, here I share my performances. within the Macro Trader Accelerator, I share all my research, all my analyses, so indirectly everyone sees the positions I can take, etc. In short, so I had two winning trades, only one losing trade. My only losing trade, I lost -0.55R. So I remind you R is my risk factor. So with 1000 dollars of risk, I lost 550 dollars. My average gain is 1.66R. So you see this risk-reward which is clearly positive. And I end the month with a total profit of +2.78R. Okay? So here is the evolution of my year and a positive P&L and a February that is better than my January and all this again by not being extremely present because as I explained, I was on vacation the first two weeks of February, when I was on vacation, I was still present on the markets but I was skiing, it's not where I'm going to send 1.5 million dollars on a position. But nevertheless, very happy with my performances for this month, especially when I see many retail traders getting absolutely crushed with the current market conditions, but this is not the case for traders who are members of the Macro Trader Accelerator, where we have Lucas who also finished February with almost 7R profit for the month of February 2026. Very happy indeed, because this month is so far his best month since he started trading. What is also always interesting, so these are always the members who share their performances, is that they also share the, let's say, the bad side, let's say the reflection behind it. So what was not going well? It was his excessive exposure at times on the same currency. We also have Anatol who has his first track record and who finishes the month at 7.85R. Congratulations! And he explains that beyond this successful month, I am satisfied with my risk management and the mistakes I may have made. I think I have encountered almost all possible scenarios this month. Revenge trade, FOMO, early entry. Let's say Anatol, it was a sporty month. I'm starting to find a certain routine between classes, work-study, and competitions, but there's still a lot to perfect. In any case, congratulations Anatole. We also have Andy who finishes at 13.35R and who shares that by the way, this month allowed me to validate two out of three phases to pass a prop firm challenge. So congratulations Andy, phase 1 complete, phase 2 complete. Congratulations. We also have Dylan who finishes at +10.13R. Congratulations Dylan. And as you can see, after a break-even January, he refocused on the basics, on the fundamentals, on the program. He set himself guardrails to avoid any missteps and overtrading. And that's what's important, analyzing the markets is good. Analyzing your own performances, I won't say it's better because both are important, but it's paramount. Also congratulations to him because he validated phase 1 on a 100k account. Well done Dylan. We also have this trader who finishes at +4.57R. We also have this trader who finishes the month of February in the positive. We also have this trader Maxime who finishes in the positive. We also have Arian who finishes in the positive with, however, a small timid month as he explains. We also have Thomas who finishes with 5.8R, a positive month. We also have Théo who achieves 5.8R, his February performance, his second month after following the Macro Trader Accelerator, he was able to correct errors identified in January to optimize his trades. Again, congratulations, and I am very happy with this month, especially with my trade management which allowed me to secure profits before unforeseen events. Congratulations Théo, and congratulations to all the traders who were able to finish their February month in the green. But not only that, because even if you finished your February month in the red, the important thing is first of all not to screw up, not to blow up the rocket mid-flight. That's step number 1. And especially step number 2, it's to analyze your performances, analyze your trades, analyze your psychology, your emotions, and to be able to improve for the next month. Now, I just want to remind you that I created this entire report of over 10 pages on the recap of the month of February 2026. With my macroeconomic and fundamental expectations, I am sending you this report completely for free. You just need to send me a message on Instagram @eliot and send me the word February, and I will send you this 10-page report completely for free. So now, with that, let's analyze the trades that I was able to take this month of February 2026, which were a buy on Yen, a buy on KiwiSwiss, and a buy on gold.