Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this breaking news video of Tuesday, November 4, 2025, in front of a crypto map that is still all red, unfortunately, which has been stinging since yesterday. It's starting to sting a little, a lot. Bitcoin is down more than 2% this morning. We have quite a few altcoins that are down 2%, 3%, 4%. Well, on the traditional stock market side, yesterday it closed, let's say, not so bad because the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed in the green, even if you see a little red, but hey, it's more or less acceptable with Nvidia and Amazon which had good performances. They made a small agreement and then it's good, it's going well. On the other hand, we see that the futures here on the American indices are in an ugly red. We have the S&P 500 futures here at almost -1%, the Nasdaq at -1.34%. So clearly it doesn't smell very good for the opening of Wall Street at 3:30 PM this afternoon. This means that investors are rather in sell mode here, you see. Well, we'll have to tighten our belts a bit today if we look at the market overview. Unfortunately, it's mainly the crypto market, Bitcoin, Ethereum that are falling because, well, the stock market is more or less, you see, yes, it's correcting a bit but it's quite gentle compared to us where it's a descent, the dollar which is putting a lot of pressure because the dollar has been regaining strength for quite some time now and especially since last Wednesday, the President of the American Central Bank said, well, we might stop the rate cuts, you see, perhaps we shouldn't expect a rate cut in December. Well, that gave strength back to the dollar and calmed down all the markets a bit, you see. Well, so for now, we'll have to hang on a bit regarding macroeconomic indicators that could fall and bring volatility, whether it's green or red. Yesterday, we had the health of the US factories which showed, well, that they are in even worse health than before, if you like. It's contracting a bit more. Today, the 4th, we'll have nothing. We were supposed to have job openings, but all employment figures, we'll have nothing because, well, the American government is still closed, still in shutdown, unfortunately. And so tomorrow, however, we'll have the ISM services, it's a strong figure. Tomorrow, it will be 5 PM. You see there's a small problem, the figures never came out at that time. So they're just waking up Robert Alfred to release figures. Robert Alfred has been on technical unemployment for a month, you see. Well, and so tomorrow it will be a very important figure. If it comes out below 50, it risks not being very pretty. Well, we'll look at that.
So, we are not surprised to have this drop. Remember this hot liquidation chart here that I pull out of the oven every morning. You can clearly see that there was a large cluster to look for between approximately 111,000 and 298, and around 118,000 dollars. Knowing that there are some unpleasant, gigantic sell orders here. Gigantic. You see, the bigger the line, the more unpleasant sell orders there are at 113,500. So even if Bitcoin tries to eat the cluster to the north, there will be sell orders here to defend positions around 113,000. Now, let's look at the buy orders. If you look at yesterday's video, there were buy orders waiting around, unfortunately, 105,000, which were wiped out. The big green line is gone. Now, the next big buy orders are at 102,000 dollars, and then after that it will be 98,000. So, we've understood that the crypto market wants to go and get the little liquidity that remains to the south first. There's still some here down to 102,000 dollars. So, can it fall to 102,000? Yes, clearly. Can it go below 102,000? Well, it's not necessarily certain for two reasons. We'll see that tonight in the analysis video. The first is that the large liquidity stops around 2000. But in addition to that, there is a fairly powerful, fairly strong cushion of buy orders between 102,000 dollars and it extends, therefore, to approximately 94,000, you see. So all of this is a large cushion. Look at all these buy orders waiting between 98 and 95 here too. So that's rather good news. There are a lot of buy positions waiting, but it will buy lower. There you go. And often the market does that. That is to say, when a market is not doing well, it's not simply that people are doing nothing and don't want to do anything anymore. It's that they are okay with reloading, but at a lower price. So sometimes it's good for markets to fall lower to pick up buy orders that will boost them upwards. You see? Well, we'll talk about all that tonight.
So, the latest news from the crypto world, what are they? Well, first of all, market sentiment has fallen into extreme fear, the fear and greed index. Now, there are many market sentiment indicators. Each has its own, its own algorithms. Well, you've understood. The most watched is this one from Alternative.me. It's in extreme fear. Now, extreme fear, yes, meaning people are very scared, it's normal given the hit the market has taken since yesterday. Now, this is rather good news because bottoms are formed in zones of extreme fear, but be careful, it's not "we have extreme fear today, so it's the bottom today." No, no, a bottom can take weeks to form. Okay? So this is a start. Now, for a bit of history, the last time Bitcoin was, well, the crypto fear and greed index here was at 21, it was in April, on April 9th, when it fell to 18. And April, what is it? Well, that's where we drew a nice bottom for the big drop that happened in December, January, February, March, April. For 5 months, the crypto market took a beating when Trump came to power. He directly attacked everyone with tariffs. We had a strong correction, especially on altcoins, for 5 months, and the bottom was found in April. Now, I don't remember the exact day, we'd have to check that in tonight's video, but in any case, April was extreme, so it formed a good bottom. So this is the beginning of extreme fear. Can a bottom form? Yes. But can it take a week or 10 days to form? Well, yes, too, you see. So that's why we have to hang on.
Well, so why is the market correcting? There are many reasons. Institutional demand has decreased. We have crypto treasury companies buying a little less, like MicroStrategy which is buying a little less, MicroStrategy too. We have ETFs, well, they are buying less too, they are even rather sellers. There were 800 million dollars in sales by Bitcoin ETFs last week. Well, so on one hand, the big buyers, well, they've calmed down a bit. Why have they calmed down a bit? Macroeconomic issues, it's not pretty. Geopolitical, macroeconomic issues. Now, microeconomics is more or less okay because quarterly earnings, for example, for Big Tech companies are rather good, you see. What's not going well is rather, well, the shutdown of the American government. We are completely navigating in the fog because no macro figures are coming out, there's nothing. Plus, behind that, Trump with China. Well, you see, it's a bit tense too. So it's normal that it's not a big party. Especially since Powell himself put a damper on things last Wednesday by saying, okay, there's a rate cut today, so that was last Wednesday, but for December, perhaps we shouldn't expect a rate cut. So markets are a bit cooled down. So this famous "moo-vember" this month of November, which usually has statistics of average increases of more than 42% since 2012, you know. So, well, will we also see a "moo-vember" that starts red and ugly, but finishes in beautiful green for the end of November, or will we unfortunately be completely in the gutter statistically? Will we have a terrible November? Well, we have the right to hope for a November, in any case, a rather green end to November. That is to say, the crypto market can quite easily liquidate down to 102,000, or even a bit lower, and finish the month of November by attacking this cluster around 116,000 or even 117,000, you see.
Now, speaking of taking a beating, it's the big whale, remember, a big whale that had pocketed 200 million dollars. Why? Because it had shorted the market just before the October 10th crash. Some said it was someone who had big ears to hear what was happening in advance or who, well, was an insider. That is to say, she knows someone who knows someone in the White House and who knew that Trump was going to announce the attack with new tariffs on China. So she shorted beforehand. In short, this whale defended herself by saying "No, I don't know anything. Well, we don't really know. Well, we don't really care." In any case, just before the crash, she bet on the downside, she pocketed 200 million dollars, you see. So that's not nothing. It's a whale that owns several billion dollars. Okay? It's not a small one. And why am I talking about this whale? Because she opened long positions last night. Now, for the moment, in these long positions, she is at a loss, okay? Now, for the long positions, she entered with Bitcoin at 106,000 dollars and entered on Ethereum at 3575. So, you see, 36 million on Bitcoin and 17 million on her Ethereum trade. Well, so there are two solutions: either this whale ultimately knows nothing. She just opens, she got lucky last time when she opened a short, and now she's trying a long, and we'll see if she's lucky or not, or she knows something, and today perhaps we'll see good news because given that she was attacked, that she had opened the short not very long ago, or 20 minutes before, I don't remember, when the market crashed, perhaps she's opening her long much earlier, saying "I don't know anything, I don't know anything," and finally, good news will arrive today. Well, so we'll follow that, of course.
Now, it's a big whale. It's a whale that has been around for 7 years, okay? So it's not a new whale. She bought over 850 million dollars worth of Bitcoin in 7 years. She held onto everything during the bear market, even though she could have sold, and the bear market in 2018, it fell to 15,000 dollars, you know. And now, well, since she weathered the bear market, she has over 10 billion dollars. Well, so she's a big whale. Will she be right again with her longs or not? Well, we'll find out quickly if good news comes out today or tomorrow.
And speaking of news, well, there are those who make the news themselves, they are market makers with Binance and Wintermute and Binance. Basically, I shared with you a bit of what was happening on social media last night. There were rumors that the CEO of Wintermute, named Evgenii Gaevoy, wanted to file a lawsuit against Binance because they lost a lot of money during the October 10th crash. And finally, these rumors were denied. Uh, it was he himself who said last night, "We never intended to sue Binance. I should probably ask for measures to be taken against those who spread these rumors, all that, all that." Well, you can take measures, you know. You're on social media. Well, in short. And so, what is Wintermute? We often hear about it. It's a very important company. It's an independent, sorry, it's a market maker. They are the ones who provide liquidity. In particular, Wintermute is one of the largest market makers that provides liquidity on Binance. Liquidity helps stabilize prices. Basically, imagine a token can be capitalized at 100 billion dollars. If it has 10,000 bucks of liquidity, the first person to sell 10,000 will make it drop to zero, you see. So liquidity is the most important thing. Basically, when you launch a token, if I launch the FF coin and put 1 million dollars of liquidity behind it, which I don't have, of course, well, to make it drop to zero, you'll have to sell a lot, you see. On the other hand, if I launch a token and put 1000 bucks of liquidity, someone just needs to sell for 700 bucks and it goes to zero, you see. So liquidity is very important. When you don't have liquidity, when you sell a token, boom, it collapses suddenly because it's empty, there's no liquidity. When there's no liquidity and you buy, it pushes up suddenly. So liquidity is very important. The role of market makers is crucial in the crypto world. And the problem is that Wintermute, they sent a lot of money to Binance because everything was falling, so they were providing liquidity. Bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. But the problem is that there was a failure of Binance's automatic risk reduction mechanism on October 10th, which went haywire and caused this monumental crash. Basically, now they have mechanisms, algorithms that should prevent everything from falling like that, you see. And unfortunately, these mechanisms didn't work. Well, some conspiracy theorists will say, "Well, Binance did it on purpose to liquidate all these traders." Some will say, "Oh, it's not Binance's fault, it's okay. Sometimes there are bugs." Well, in short, everyone has their own opinion. I'm not here to give my opinion.
And so Welpom Reborn, he's the person on Twitter who kind of announced it, who lit the fuse by saying, "I know how much Wintermute lost. They lost a lot. They're going to take legal action against Binance," and then there are many others you see talking about it. Well, it snowballed on Twitter. Even though Wintermute is not suing Binance, there's no problem. However, what is certain is that they lost a lot of money. You should know that Wintermute, they had sent 700 million dollars to Binance, you see, before the crash. They sent much more. The problem is when you send liquidity and the thing collapses because of the mechanisms designed to avoid these crashes that don't work, well, in fact, what did they do, to put it crudely? They sent money, bills, into the fire. There you go. Into Binance, they normally have fire extinguisher mechanisms, so when there's a fire, when I say fire, it means it crashes suddenly, you see, boom, it falls because there were cryptocurrencies down 80% in 15 minutes, you know. That's never been seen in the history of the crypto world. Well, normally, Binance has automatic fire extinguishers. When it starts to fall too much, the fire extinguishers put out the fire, and then you add a bit of liquidity and absorb the selling, and then it's over. You create a floor. And so the problem is that Binance's fire extinguishers didn't work, and Wintermute, who were there, saying "Wait, we have liquidity, we're providing liquidity," they threw money into the fire that was there, and it kept burning and burning, and it kept falling. So Wintermute, they lost a lot of money, that's why. And many people, many market makers lost a lot of money because of the mechanisms that didn't work on Binance. And so some say that some market makers will not take legal action, all that, all that. Well, in short, I will follow all of that, of course, I will keep you informed.
Well, so Binance is not going to fall, don't stress for nothing, okay? Binance has enough money to say to these people, "Okay, here, take it, I'll give it back, I'll give it back, there's no problem." So there's no need to be afraid, we'll just keep you updated, and I'll keep you updated on all of that, of course.
So there you go friends, we'll meet again, well, for the video in the late afternoon. I send you kisses. Stay strong, courage to you, and well, we'll talk later. Bye bye. [Music]