Transcription
You know that this is the first thing that we do before we look at any charts. Before we look at any charts, we go to forexfactory.com, right? And we're mainly just interested in USD news, right? But I'll see if we have, oh, we do have. When is this going to be crazy? Um, kind of looking at the low of the week, high of the week for C. As is going to be Wednesday, it's going to be crazy. Thursday is going to be good too. Friday looks a bit sloppy, I don't know. But Wednesday and Thursday is when, you know, we'll be looking to trade. Wednesday is going to have some movement with the euro dollar in the London session. You guys can see I skipped over Monday and Tuesday because why? There's no news. There doesn't, it's like it doesn't even when I look, there is like I see no opportunity, no opportunity. You know, it's like sloppy price action, Monday. Low probability price action, Tuesday. Probably be something to do, right? But like there's a lot of utility Wednesday and Thursday. So low of the week, Wednesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Wednesday, little high to wait for S asset classes. Yeah, so like Wednesday is probably going to be the best day to trade and Thursday will be good too. But Wednesday, you can see that we have USD news at 9:45 a.m. Amazing. So, you know that the best time to trade is 9 to 10:30, right? And we have news at 9:45 a.m. on a Wednesday. That's Q3 of Q3 of Q3. If you don't understand that, then whenever, you know, we finish, you just go back and look back at all the cycles and then you understand what I mean. So yeah, this is what we'll expect. We don't really want to be trading Monday and we'll wait to see Monday what Monday gives us because there's no news, you know? So only time we really trade Monday is when there's like when there's like NFP, you know, non-farm payroll Fridays. We can trade Mondays then, but not now. So Wednesday and Thursday, best days to trade. Want to make money next week, Wednesday and Thursday. I'll probably have to wait from Monday and Tuesday though before I get a good read on the market because right now it's even right now the dollar, really low probability, you know? I can see it, you know, I don't want to like I want to wait until at least Monday before I can because like we we're just like stuck in the middle. We got liquidity here, right here. We have buy side liquidity, right here, right? And this is what I'm doing is so important. I don't think people really understand, right? You know, you don't want to be trading in an environment that's against you. You want to wait until the market shows you what it wants to do, right? If you guys can recall during the first week, so the first week or so this month, the first live streams, you know, I wasn't as really sure about certain things. But then as we progress, you know, and the price action get better, I started to become way more accurate in what I'm talking about, you know, my analysis and my trades as well. So I would definitely wait for price to either fall below this low right here. And if it goes above this, I'm going to wait for it to go to this high before doing anything at all, right? We still have some time before it's we we still have some time left for this downtrend to continue. So if price probably pushes here, it probably come back into this range. Or if it, I don't, I'm not sure if I think to go below this low right now because that these highs are in such close proximity right now. These guys have my attention. So yeah, I'll wait until Monday to see what will happen. I'll teach you guys about this too. It's crazy and I'll give you my settings this week, don't worry. So this is like my, what I used to like, you know, put it over my market. I automatically can, you know, this automatically draws the new week opening gaps for me, which is really important. So right here we have, you know, this is a breaker overlaid with the new with the open, much we opening gaps. You know, it's high probability that we can see like some reaction if price trades right here. You remember from the first live streams that I made, I told you that ultimately the drawing liquidity is here like for the remainder of the year. So even if we drop below this here or wherever we go, we can, I'm still looking for price to go here. These highs are too clean, man. The next shift of sentiment will send price up there. And we measure sentiment shift with time, not price. Time, time tells us what price should do, and price confirms what it's doing to us. So for the dollar, there's, I don't really see a clean read on the dollar, which means that there is no, there's no clean read for euro either. Low probability, all of this right here is low probability. Nothing much to see right here. I have to wait for Monday or Tuesday. I don't want to tell you guys something and then, you know, wonder if he just goes in and buys or sells and then, you know, lose money or whatever, which you shouldn't be trading with if you're need or blow your funded account, right? Sometimes we have to wait and this is important because like some of you right now, you know, you're like really jumpy to go in and do something. But there are times that you have that it's just, you just don't know. You know, you just have to wait sometimes. So we'll see if price will like get into this rebalance gap and if something forms, right? And we'll confirm with a dollar later in the week, probably like Monday. We'll wait for Monday's price action and then I'll come back with you guys. GBP USD doesn't look the best at all, but these highs have my attention. They do definitely have my attention. So we could definitely see price draw up to these highs, but like this is literally low probability. We're within consolidation right now. So we could see pressure off these highs. They're like too clean for me. All right, GBP USD maybe reverse after, but yeah, too clean. Do you see like how I'm going through these charts and I'm just like, I'm pointing to the most important things, right? I could be telling you that this is a Nord block or um fair value gap, but I want you guys to focus on where we should expect price to draw to, what's more high probability than the other. So we'll wait to see what, you know, what Monday is like and then we then we'll come back at this on with these. Okay, so we got most, I I think last week's move was the one for, you know, the move for most of the month, which we called before and of course, as usual. So we are right now at territory we've never seen before, right? These are all-time highs for the S&P 500 right now and we have no market structure to use right now. So what, what can we use? Use, we can use time. All right, so time helps us where price cannot help us. So remember, remember since price was here, we were talking, you're talking about is going to take out this high and this high and it did. I'm going to turn some of you guys and monsters, literally, I swear. So right here we have time. We have time right here. So best, so wow. And then right here we have, there is Thursday, which is reversal usually, right? Okay, so from this low, the lowest low in the last, in the last, um, two, three to four months, we basically count 60 candles forward. So 60 trading days forward, right? So we can like anticipate, you know, when price should reverse. When I say price should reverse, I don't mean like just then go back up. I mean like we want to see some form of consolidation. You know, we could, you could go up a little bit more. I cored 60 days, not 90. 60 trading days. Maybe it's 90 regular days, but it's actually 60 trading days. So yeah, let me, yeah, I was going to do it again, but no, I don't have to. 60 trading days. You can do it. Just so I use this tool right here, date range. So basically three months and I go back. What if I go back from here? I should, I'll just mark time here too. You can see that's where the low is right there. There was SMT right here on the four-hour time frame, if you remember me talking about it. And we want to see SMT form within, let me see. I'll measure 20, 20 days. So SMT, some form, SMT. I want to see form here, you know, I on this on the states, which is important. I'm pretty sure, you know, our divergences. If not, I'll, if not, then I want to see people comment like comment in the stream in this, um, in the topic for live stream questions, the where, whatever this is part of the forum, right? Comment if you don't understand SMT, then I have to do a stream to like explain it to you. Cuz, you know, I don't want you to be left behind. So I want to see daily SMT here. And then we look for a shift of market structure. If that happens, wherever that happens, if that happens, then definitely liquidity, liquidity, liquidity, liquidity for your value gap. We're going to see something crazy happen. That's what I think. And then, you know, you'll have like news telling you that this happened. Tanker exploded here, war escalating, whatever, whatever, you know? So we wait and we'll see. I'm actually giving you a forecast for like the next, you know, the next big move, which I think will be done. Yeah, you'll know more about SMT for sure. So yeah, all of this move is just because price shifted sentiment from here, right? And also during this time, during this time, we have the we have be seasonal tendency that should be kicking in as well for this. So we have, this is important. We have a bearish shift of sentiment that should come into play. It should right at this time, it should come into play, right? So the algorithm measures these days, right? It's like, okay, goes up for 60 to for three to four months, okay, should turn here. And then seasonal tendencies has a play in that too because that's coded into the algorithm as well. So when you have a bearish quarterly shift in line with a bearish seasonal tendency, then yeah, magic happens, right? That's sauce too. And I'll be looking at COT data. I'll try to get some of you guys to understand how to read it, but I'm not sure if everyone's, you know, anyone is actually ready for that yet, right? So see COT data. COT data. I'm pretty sure I can teach you how to read COT data in like 20 minutes. I'm pretty sure I can do that. But like I don't want you guys to be focusing on the less important stuff, right? So yeah, this is what we're looking for, right? So right now, we we need to see that quote unquote the top is quote unquote confirmed, right? Before you do anything. Right now, you can't do anything with this. If price drops here, you still do nothing. Price drops here, it's probably going to go up above this high. If leaves a high here, drops, going to go above, right? You don't want to trade right here. We got to wait. Listen, listen, next month, the month after that, there will be setups everywhere, everywhere. So right now, you just want to be patient. Don't force it. Your your um what's it called again? Your accounts are not going to expire or anything. You won't have, you won't have hands to catch all of the moves that are going to come like in this like in the in the spring months and the summer months. You won't have hands to catch them, man. You'll just be sleeping. Their setups, you wake up, their setups, setups everywhere. And the year started off good because this is good clean price action that we're seeing right here, right? And this is a telltale sign that, you know, we having moves like this in January. These things don't happen in January when the market is low probability. The market is gearing up to show us some sweet price action. And then we have, then we have in March when there will also be the bearish seasonal tendency. We have the contract expiry date right right there, right? So we'll be starting a new contract which will be going in, should be going in an entire different, the market should be going in an entirely different way by then, in my opinion, right? So like that's what I'm looking for in regards to this. Similar thoughts with NQ, right? This week, it will mostly be waiting. Monday, Tuesday, you want to wait on those days. You don't really want to do anything because there's nothing to do. What are you going to trade? Right? There's no PDAs here. We're at all-time highs right there. There's no PDAs. There's a lower high here, here, right here. You can trade in time, use this for support for like a little scalp or whatever. But like, you know, there's a fair value gap here. If this drops here, you don't really want to be doing anything, right? Oh, up here until price that breaks below this high, it's low probability. Everything is, everything is low probability. Everything is right. So we can see that price dropped below this low, left this gap open as I wanted it to. You learn how to anticipate those things further down, don't worry. And then we ran about this. Listen, this was so easy to see. This is so obvious, right? When highs are like this, like when I see highs like this, my eyes gravitate to them more than this than I'm equal highs. I I literally rather to see this than this. I told you guys already, right? But like people don't, they don't take it in. Taking what I say, they just discard of it as if I'm saying nonsense. It's actually some things that are simple that will like, you know, make you a better analyst and which will in turn make you a better trader because you're here to learn how to repress action. You want to know what price is going to do before it does it, right? That's why you're here. That's definitely why you're here. Yes, Jacka. Low resistance liquidity run. This is what it is. So you have low resistance liquidity run for time and you have low resistance liquidity runs which can be depicted by price action, previous price action, right? This is is the time. This is the price form of low resistance. The quarter run. There is also time where you can anticipate low resistant liquidity runs also, which we'll get into. Low resistant liquidity runs and high resistant liquidity runs, time and price based because they're both different, but you need both of them to be in line with one another to work, right? We'll get to that too, don't worry. But yes, this is the price base which I, it was just too obvious. This is better than aiming for this, right? Because most times when when there's this, as you realize as a trader, trading ICT doesn't work for you. Like 90% of ICT traders cannot even call price with 50% accuracy. They can't, or they can't trade at all, right? So the same thing, you know, from here, we cast forward, right? From this low, like just go back and look for the most obvious low that you can see within the past three months. Look back. You got to look back. Here it is, right? And then you cast forward 60 days. Let me just do it again because that this is so important. This is one of the most important things, man. That's 60 bars is 60 trading days, right? This is 90 days right here is calendar days. That's not what we're talking about, okay? So we will mark time doing it again. So you know, then it falls on Thursday. So we'll wait to see what price. Listen, if price just goes here and just, you know, and drops right here, don't be, don't think it's the end of the world. We need to see SMT first, right? We need to, then we, you know, a clear break of market structure and then we'll be sure, well, not sure, but wait, am I? I was talking like this, then we'll have a higher probability setup, right? Right, so we need, okay, again, I'll go here. That cast for 20, 20 trading days. Falls here. This is the most important thing that you should actually learn, which you will after a while. Look at easy as also, all right? So within here, we want to see bearish price action. This is a good amount of time. But and even during this, there'll be like tradeable setups on the lower time frame if you're willing. I will probably be at, and I know most of you will be too. So yeah, and then we have contract expiry date right after this, right? This period of time, all right? So that's what we're going to be waiting for to see what what price is like here. And if I see any low, you know, high probability setup that, you know, need or attention or gets my attention, then I'll share it with you. This is very important. If you're new, not even if you're new, charter students that are here, charter students that are watching this right now, this is important. And not because you're a scaler, it does that doesn't mean that shouldn't pay attention to this, right? This is important. This is, this should be the foundation of all of your analysis, right? Casting forward, casting back, looking for where there was SMT on the daily for time frame within the last three to four months because the market changes direction every three to four months. Listen, every three to four months, the market is going to change direction or form. It's going to either consolidate, reverse, you know, expand. That's what it does. And then yes, you got every, you got you got that happening on different cycles, but we're, you know, we're mainly focusing on this right now. And then YM, not much to see right now. Literally really just ran below the low that we highlighted last week and then expanded. So to get a clear depiction on price, I'll have to see Monday and probably Tuesday. But right now, there is nothing. Basically nothing to, there's nothing to do right now. I could easily see this last week, you know, all these highs gone that we highlighted. But but now there is literally nothing. It's just up candles. You can't just short here. There's no levels here for price to react to. There's nothing there, you know, you just, you just have to wait. You can't just buy if price drops into this fair value gap here because there's nothing here, right? You have to wait. Where and I'll be, I'll post some a link for some seasonal tendencies for you guys when I find it, don't worry. If you can find it. So yeah, that's pretty much, that's pretty much it for like the markets now. And if we go into Bitcoin, I like using the CME futures data for like the analysis on Bitcoin. So even Bitcoin, not much to see, right? We need, we literally need more information, you know? Anything I you do right now is just scrambling. There's nothing much to do right now but wait. And with that being said, I hope you drew something from this because I did give you guys some gems. I hope that you remember. Some of you are writing them down. I'll be with you guys in around, I'll say like two, three hours. I'll be back just to go live, answer some more questions again, which I'll be doing more often. I sent, I refunded everyone that used PayPal and I will send the alternative method of payment to you guys either next week or the week after. Don't worry about being late or anything. That's fine. And with that said, have fun the rest of your day. Enjoy your day. If you haven't called your mom, call your mom. If you're a mom, hug your kids. So yeah, I'll be back. See you.