Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review, we will talk about BTC first, which is at an important level and especially yesterday, it gave us a daily close that is not great. We will also talk about Ether and then we will look at altcoins, we will talk about Aster, a bit from a fundamental and technical point of view, we will talk about Ave and GRT. So, I'll start with BTC. Yes, what it did yesterday, it's not great. this upper wick here, we had an attempt to break upwards, a very good push. Yesterday, we saw that by reaching this accumulation zone, we were at a good support level, a small W pattern, we had a good pump, we came back to important levels. OK, we see hop 4h tunnel, 113,000 dollars and we were ready to re-enter 113,000 dollars. And even yesterday, I said it, I said it in the Discord, I said if we hold like this, if we close like this, it's really good. That's what we did. That's what I was asking for in my last videos. That's what I was saying, to turn bullish, to have an interesting signal, well, we would simply have to re-enter a previous level, notably this level of 113,000 dollars because for now, we have broken these big resistance zones. We relied on this level where we have our eliot waves, but since then, we have no buy signal. It's too much. We have a rejection, OK, a rejection with an upper wick. This shows us that we have quite a few trapped buyers. Now, what we need to understand is that in this wick, we have a lot of buyers who are underwater. Buyers, whether in spot or on perpetual contracts, who have simply gone long and find themselves, well, what is called underwater. And potentially, we can push these buyers lower, in any case, liquidate them, close their positions, which will simply lead to selling pressure here. And this is where we see that the market is quite complicated at the moment. Be careful to those who use leverage. We will liquidate in one direction, we re-enter, we will use in the other. If you misuse leverage, if you don't know how to use it very well, you will clearly blow up accounts. And by the way, I made a video, I really invite you to watch it where I simply made a very interesting video. Uh, I think it's number 95% of traders don't know how to use leverage. A really important video that explains concretely how to use leverage, how it works, how to size, how to calculate your position size, and so on. I invite you to watch it. I'll put the first link in the description if you want to watch it because it's really important and it will allow you, many people make the mistake of using leverage on different exchanges, okay? Whether it's x5, x10, x20, x100 even for some, but they really don't know the use of leverage. If you think that leverage is used to earn more or to boost your small capital, that's not how it works and you will make big mistakes. So I invite you to watch this video which will really allow you to see the real use of leverage. And uh, and there, anyway, we see it, there are a lot of liquidations in both directions. During the dump we had on Friday, October 10th, 20 billion, even 40 billion positions liquidated. After, well, at the same time, it's mainly on altcoins, we got everyone out with -70% -80%. It's normal that most people got liquidated. But even here, we are in a phase where we are ranging, we are looking for the lows, we are looking for the highs, we don't have a real market direction. It's simply range trading. That's a sideways phase. We are still at the lower extremity. But as I said, I remain cautious because we don't have buying strength for the moment. We had it at one point, but now we are in a bearish dynamic that is selling. OK. And for the moment, well, every time we have attempts to rebound, when buyers show up minimally, it's quickly swallowed by sellers who show up. So for the moment, I remain cautious when I look at the moving averages. Well, we still have moving averages oriented downwards. We see it clearly on the 15 minutes, we are back below. On the 1-hour, we are back below. We reached the 4-hour at the pivot point, we rejected at that level. So we came back to this previous accumulation phase, which is normal given the drop and the re-entry we made. We find some demand here. OK. We'll see if we start to manage to get out above the 15-minute tunnel. We have a US session here that is rather mixed. You see that we see clearly at the US session level that during the day we were in a low volatility phase and at 3:30 PM volatility increased but rather an uncertain US market that doesn't take a clear direction. We see that we are ranging since this opening and yes, a market that, as I said, is rather wary, that can't find an exit from this range that is ongoing, even if we take what is called the OPR, which is the open price range of the opening. So generally, we take the 15-minute candle. OK, we project the high, the low point, and we see that we are ranging between these two levels. So for the moment, a market that is searching for itself. I always advise you to be cautious in this market, to wait for more favorable signals. And that's it, don't forget that some will say "Yes, but then you're not entering" and so on. Many have the tendency to always want to buy, to always have opportunities, to enter positions permanently, to buy, buy, buy. And there is something that is very rarely mentioned. Even for those who do DCA for the long term. For BTC, it's not too problematic, but for other cryptos, it can be. This is what is called capital immobilization. It's good to enter positions, it's good to do DCA on certain cryptos, there's no problem. But something we forget is that if you enter positions too often, if you do DCA on cryptos that are ranging, there are cryptos that have been ranging like this since 2022 and have done nothing and are in big sideways phases. Someone does hop, for example, Cake since 2023, doing DCA. Oh, great. Maybe it's break-even, they haven't gained anything, lost nothing, we're in a range, maybe they have an average purchase price around here, even slightly positive. OK, but something we don't mention is capital immobilization. Yes, what we need to realize is that for 3 years, 2-3 years, OK, sure, you've broken even, it could be worse, you could be at a loss, but your capital has done nothing. You have immobilized your capital in an asset that has brought you no return, a return you could have had through staking, through other means, okay? Or at least even between a person who immobilizes their capital in an asset to make 0% after 3 years, it's better to just put it aside, even put it in a savings account, you will clearly get a better performance. Of course, we don't know this in advance. We don't know in advance that our altcoin, our crypto will range for 3 years, that's for sure. But this is something you need to take into account for those who always want to enter positions, who want to put their money into crypto as soon as they have cash, they go all out. Buy, buy, buy, be careful not to immobilize your capital too much, otherwise you will regret it. In the end, you won't specifically see it, but you will underperform the market and that's not the goal at all. So, as I said, for now, I remain cautious whether it's on BTC, Ether, and altcoins. I'm more in a phase where I'm going to research the fundamentals of certain projects, I'm going to research certain DeFi protocols, I'm going to be a bit more curious about other areas when I don't have trading opportunities, when the market is a bit slower. OK. I take a step back and do something else. I re-evaluate my trading journal, I re-analyze certain setups, I take care of some members of the "become a crypto trader" program for follow-up, for coaching. I answer your questions. So, I take a step back like this. I tell myself OK, usually you spend more time, you have a more active market, it moves more, you have opportunities, etc. That's not really the case here. And well, I do something else. There's no point in being in front of the charts and doing nothing. OK? I have alerts, I have setups that can trigger. If they trigger, I take them. If they don't trigger, I don't take them. OK? And for the moment, well, I prefer to take a step back from this situation which, for me, still seems delicate. Even if we are at a support level, I am wary. So, we can go up again and if that happens, it won't be surprising from a technical point of view. It won't be a trap or anything because we are at a support level that must hold at 107,000, but I prefer to be wary and wait, as I said, to enter a bit higher. So, for here, BTC, regarding Ether, we are correcting, we continue to correct and consolidate. Well, I mean correcting today and yesterday. Same for Ether, we came back to the highs. Hop, we had a small liquidity grab above these levels. So, we see it well, these highs were hunted. Selling reaction on Ether, it's a range. It's even a compression phase here with lower highs and higher lows. So, we are blocked between two levels. We are coming back to 3900 dollars, which is this major support level, and on weekly, my plan doesn't change. If we close below 3800, it won't be good for the future. Not scenario number 1 for now. OK, but it's something I will monitor because on Ether, well, we are sliding slowly but surely. And we can be a bit in this phase, you see, hop, which is a bit similar to what we had. It was in November-December 2021 with an ATH here. OK, a break, a pullback. We reject, we reject. But we see that we are sliding slowly here. You see? Hop, we slide slowly. We slide slowly. We slowly break the support. OK, we re-enter it and then if I switch to weekly, hop, we see it clearly here. Bam! a big brutal drop. For the moment, we are at a support level, we cannot anticipate the break of a support level. That's why it's delicate. That's why I'm telling you, we are in a complicated market right now. Honestly, whether you are a beginner, intermediate, or advanced, if you are struggling right now, it's normal. OK, I'm telling you, the market is much more complicated than what we experienced in early 2025 and 2024. So, it's normal, there are phases like this, it's the market. There are phases that are complicated, there are phases that are simpler. The best thing to do is to take a step back, not to take too much risk, and to preserve your capital. But on the other hand, don't start saying "Ah yes, if I lose money, it's not my fault, it's because the market is too hard." No, always take responsibility, that's the most important thing. And then, if you want to train yourself, if you want to progress and move to the next level, well, I have two programs that will, if right now you don't have much to do given the market, you take a couple of weeks and you focus entirely on one of these two programs. Depending on your profile, investor or trader, you will find all the necessary content to become a profitable trader or an autonomous investor. OK? That depends on your profile. If you want to be active in the markets, make decisions in the short, medium, even long term, but especially in the short to medium term, the "become a trader" program is for you. On the other hand, if you want to build a solid portfolio, master the fundamentals, tokenomics, and so on, "crypto investor" will be for you. There are phases like this currently, we are clearly in a good phase to train ourselves. OK? It's not when there's a crisis or when we're going to a bull market to the moon that we can say "Ah, now what do I do? Do I have the skills?" No, it's in these kinds of pauses that we need to take care of it. If I talk here about Ether from a technical point of view, we are still below the moving averages as well. We see that Ether is a bit weaker than BTC at the moment. We came back to this major level. We had a hunt. We see it here with this lower wick. We re-enter, we retest this low. Now, it would be good to break these highs, reverse our dynamic, and if that's the case, there would be a high chance of reaching globally 4000 dollars, 3950 dollars, this zone here. So, currently, we are at a support level on Ether that needs to be monitored. OK? Because a support level has a higher chance of holding, a higher chance of acting as support, simply its role. But we lack a reversal of our dynamic because if I look at all the short-term timeframes, well, 3 minutes below the 15 minutes, 15 minutes below the 1-hour, 1-hour below the 4-hour. I remind you of the Vegas tunnels, they are moving averages that materialize a trend. An indicator you can add by putting multi-frame Vegas. OK, you have the same configuration as me, a set of moving averages on different timeframes, as I said, 3 minutes, 15 minutes, 1-hour, 4-hour. You have the yellow tunnel which is the daily tunnel and which simply allows you to see OK, how the market is behaving, to have reference points, where we can act as support, resistance, and so on and so forth. That's it for BTC and ETHER. If we talk about the US market, hop, we are in a sideways phase. We still had this big dump at this level. For the moment, this big dump has been retested, which is not surprising. We saw this together. As you can see, when we have a VOP like this, it is very often tested. After, is it to turn it into an M top or a W? I cannot know that. What is certain is that it is very rare to have a dump like this and not retest a level. We still have moving averages oriented upwards. The most probable thing is to make a new ATH. Now, I cannot look for longs here near a resistance zone. However, be careful, if we start to structure this reversal pattern, well, we will have a high chance of going back to this zone. We have a very good confluence. Daily tunnel, this support level that acted as resistance, which now acts as support. If I take here, hop, the performance would be around -7%, which is a completely logical retracement on the SP500. For the NASDAQ, it's globally similar. OK, we see the confluence again between the current ATH and the Daily tunnel. Still moving averages oriented upwards. We are retesting this reaction, this VP. And if we have a higher probability of continuation now, if we start to structure this M top, reversal of our dynamic with lower lows and lower highs, and a high chance of reaching globally the tunnel, well, it will be a good localization zone in the medium to long term to look for longs on the Nasdaq. Uh, regarding gold. Now, gold, which experienced a drop as I had shared with you on Discord, I had made a little joke. I told you when the market smiles at you, it means it wants to screw you over a bit, take your money. This shows us a reversal structure, a market top structure. We see lower lows, which is a simple technical pattern where we enter a sideways phase and break it downwards. Knowing that we are preceded by an upward dynamic. This simply indicates a reversal phase. Not necessarily long-term. If I switch to weekly and zoom out, it remains bullish. OK, that's a fact. If I switch to daily, it also remains bullish. Now, a slight degradation in the short term. If we were to place a longer-term top, this VOP will surely be tested to make this kind of structure like we did before. See, see this kind of structure, we have a VOP, it is retested. After, we go up, but globally, I will take a more interesting structure here. You see that we have this kind of violent dump that we often leave, it is retested. Retested, it's not coming back to the same level, but globally, we can see this reversal structure here. It's very rare to have a violent dump and not retest it. Come on, hop, we dump here and we retest at a minimum. Generally, a 0.1118 Fibonacci is often a short re-accumulation zone, you see between 0.1807 and 186, it's quite classic, even if the top we made here in 2011, yes, it's the same, hop, violent dump. OK, bam, and we retest it. So, we do a bigger retest, especially for assets with so much volume, so much liquidity. And it's very rare on this kind of asset to have a VOP here and go to the basement like this. I personally don't believe it for a second. So, the market top will have time to show itself. OK. In any case, for the moment, short-term bearish dynamic. For me, we can rely on the 4-hour tunnel, perhaps place a bottom. OK. Attacked at resistance levels because as I say, the structure remains bullish. Well, that's it, we've covered SP500, Nasdaq, US market, gold. Now, regarding altcoins, I was asked for an analysis of Aster. Aster has been talked about quite a bit lately. It was pushed by Sizi. Many people talked about it. Aster, a fundamental point, what is it? It's a multichain perps and spot dex. They have significant leverage. They have significant TVL, exploding volumes. OK, it's a bit trendy, a bit like Hyper Liquid, where we have quite a few perps dexes deploying like this at the moment. OK. Uh, we have good tokenomics on Aster, that's a fact. The token is rather well distributed. We had a big phase where the tokenomics were horrible, notably 2021, 22, 23, 24. Uh, projects that launched in 2021, it was still okay, but the period 23-24, projects that launched had bad token distribution. I'm thinking of Starknet, that kind of project where their launch was horrible. And here, we have a distribution that is a bit more equitable than other projects we've seen before, much more public than private investors and the team, which is not the case before. Before, the team, we have 5% on many projects, the team is 20% and the team eats well. And why is that a problem? Because well, these are actors who will take advantage of, how to say, the more naive, let's say, to dump their tokens on them. To put it simply, because they were able to benefit from extremely low prices on many projects and with token unlocks, well, they take advantage of it to dump on the community. So, and we had Hyper Liquid that arrived and revolutionized all this with a magnificent airdrop that simply favors the public, the community, and so, other projects have followed suit. So I still have a preference for Hyperliquid. OK, it remains a decent project. We won't badmouth Aster. It remains a decent project with a fundamental, well, that has a buyback system. So, it's a bit similar. It's not exactly the same, but it's a bit similar. After, I haven't dug into the Aster project as much as I have dug into the Hyper Liquid project. But what blocks me is the technical side because here, we are placing a market top, an M top, and for the moment, we are in a bearish dynamic. And at the time I positioned myself on Hyper Liquid, you might say "Yes, but it's exactly the same, I remember. Hop! on Hyper Liquid. Nico, you did the same thing. You have your M top here that was forming, and yet you bought like a madman here. That's true. That's true. Here I bought like a madman, the chart is clearly bearish. The chart is ugly. Here, we are completely below resistance, below the moving averages. Don't do this, I did it. But you don't do this. Why did I do it? For two reasons of strong fundamental convictions on Hyper Liquid. OK. With a community that supports it incredibly, something I hadn't seen in a while, very rarely seen. Perhaps at the time of Solana in 2021. OK, so that goes back to 2020-2021, and on Aster, there is still the community that is there. Two things bother me. There's already Hyper Liquid that's there. OK, it's not, they didn't arrive before Hyper Liquid. That's a fact. Secondly, we have a market context that is different from when I strongly positioned myself on Hyper Liquid at this level, where BTC was much more interesting, had already retraced much more. So, it seems more complicated to position myself. I'm not saying there's nothing to do because the project is still well supported. There's quite a bit of hype and there's a community that's present. I don't think as much as Hyper Liquid. I might be biased because automatically I have a preference for hype. I might be biased, but I would ideally wait. Either you have strong convictions and you do as I did with hype. However, you must accept it because it can go lower. OK? And you must have good risk management, etc., etc. You know the drill, or you wait for a reversal pattern, a signal that shows you OK, buyers are present. That's generally what I'm watching. But yes, an interesting project, which, anyway, is a bit the narrative of dexes at the moment. So, dexes, I'm talking about decentralized exchanges for those who don't know. Analysis of AVE. Now, AVE, I was asked questions. I was asked "What are your profit-taking levels? If we make a new ATH?" So, I will give them. First, on AVE, take your profits before the ATH. Don't start saying "Yes, I'm not selling anything before the ATH," knowing that we go from 46 dollars to 675 dollars at the ATH. We are already at least a x10 here. So, take your profits well in advance. I'm not saying all of it, but take your profits. Now, in case we make a new ATH, many people have trouble taking their profits well on cryptos like this when there's no price history. Several ways. Either Fibonacci extensions 118-100% extension, so 1052 dollars, 1290 dollars, or psychological numbers, 700 dollars, 800 dollars, 900 dollars, 1000 dollars, etc. It can also be if we have a weakening, bearish divergence on MACD, reversal pattern, break of a low, MTP, etc. So, there are several ways, but otherwise, in my opinion, we could go into this zone. Now, we are far from the ATH, it's not something we will do overnight. We are closer to the low than to the ATH. That's a fact. Now, if I were in mode, I need to position myself and look for longs, there are several zones. The very, very interesting zone is this zone here. 100-120 dollars, approximately this localization zone. OK. And then we have our re-accumulation zone, rather medium-term, because I'm only taking this movement which is between 217 and 173 dollars. So, for me, two zones, I wouldn't try to position myself at such high levels. 380-275 dollars, these are not the best zones. However, if we go back to lower levels like this, yes, we are on a chart that is rather good. With a big bottom that has been formed here. Well, I don't see AV going back below these levels. And globally, yes, we are looking for longs in this zone or in this zone. Last crypto, I was asked about GRT. GRT is rather ugly. We had a long that we were monitoring, that I had shared with you, it was a break of this level. If we went above this level, we didn't. We even broke the low. That's the importance sometimes of waiting for a reversal pattern. We can be at a support level, that doesn't mean we will make a bottom 100%. OK? And here we are sinking, we are losing quite important levels. We are still at a major support level since we are at the lower extremity at this level. But we have a wick that made an all-time low on GRT, a historical low, and now we are attacking the lows that were made in December 2022 as well. So you see, that's what I was telling you. Be careful, if you do DCA on this, you immobilize your capital and you also lose money. OK? That's why DCA has its limits, especially on altcoins like this that can disappear overnight. If we start to settle below this level, we would have the exit of this big sideways phase downwards, and if we don't have a deviation, re-entry, it's very ugly and we could clearly go lower. In this kind of situation, the best thing to do is, first of all, short to medium term, nothing to do. Why? Because we have moving averages oriented downwards, it's not the strongest altcoin, there are altcoins that have a better chart and yes, easier setups to trigger for trend continuation. Or you look for shorts in this kind of chart. And otherwise, for the medium to long term, if you want to position yourself, well, what you need is a buy signal, a reversal pattern, something that shows you that buyers are present. It could be going back above this level, it could be forming a smaller pattern, it could be a deviation, re-entry, well, several signals like that that would show you that OK, buyers are indeed present. So, I'm done, I leave you with this. I wish you a very good end of the day and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.