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Japan is a country with the highest debt to GDP in the world, over 200 percent. America, they say it's a lot, but it's still over 100, because they borrowed a lot, even though their income isn't that much. In the past, we would hear that, oh wow, Japan was a leader in making chips, making memory, making electrical appliances, making cars. Nowadays, there's none left, it's all gone. You don't have new innovations coming out. In the past, Japan, right, brother? Then it was suppressed by the Plaza Accord, and after that, it just went downhill. The third thing is, the people in the country are getting older, but they don't open up (to immigration). Therefore, it's worth watching how things will change in the future, in 5-10 years.
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Another interesting thing is that the Yen, I heard, is being heavily stripped down by immigration as well during this period. Because this Yen carry trade is related to the stock market, right? So when the stock market goes down, the Yen becomes very volatile, very turbulent. There have been interventions, and I heard that the dollar is too strong. Now it's 161 Yen to 1 Dollar, brother. I think, can Japan endure? In the future, Japan might [inhales] collapse, perhaps? Their finances are such that the budget isn't enough, debt is high, and the Yen is still weak and soggy, oil is expensive, all these things. Japan is in trouble. Does the Yen trade have an effect? >> Yen carry, it's actually English, we have to call it a pain in the >> of >> Can't translate >> of Japan, meaning it's a feeling, what kind of feeling? A heartache for Japan. >> That it has to, it has accumulated for a long time. >> Really? >>
Japan is a country with the highest debt to GDP in the world. >> Because >> Over 200 percent. >> Uses a lot. >> America, they say it's a lot, but it's still over 100. >> They use a lot, you see. >> Ah, why is that? Because they borrowed a lot, even though their income isn't that much. >> What is Japan's problem? >>
Japan's problem has existed for a long time, and that is: 1. The population is only getting older, older, older. Ah, this is the first point. >> And Japan is a closed country. >> Yes. >> I mean, if you have an aging society, but you open the country for immigrants to come in, do you think people would come, brother? >> Who would want to come to Japan? >> But Japan is open, right? Ah, so they can't solve the problem. >> Now they've started to open up. >> Actually, when you analyze a country, >> Hmm. >> The recipe for a country's downfall, what does it include? Hmm. >> Uh, 1. Debt to GDP, or rather, debt to income is too high. This is exactly Japan. 2. You don't have new innovations coming out anymore. In the past, Japan, right, brother? Then it was suppressed by the Plaza Accord, and after that, it just went downhill. In the past, we would hear that, oh wow, Japan was a leader in making chips, making memory, making electrical appliances, making cars. Nowadays, >> Gone. >> There's none left, it's all gone, there's nothing at all. The third thing is, the recipe for a country's downfall is >> Hmm. >> The people in the country are getting older. >> Hmm. >> But you don't, don't open up. >> Don't accept foreigners. >>
The US didn't have this problem before, but now I don't know, because the US used to be open, whoever was talented, bring them in, now. Nowadays, not anymore, not anymore. >> Not taking them anymore. >> Therefore, it's worth watching how things will change in the future, 5-10 years from now. And it's similar here. >> This, this is the same, it's like looking at Japan as a model. 1. Increasing debt to GDP, right, brother? Ah, right? 2. Closing, starting to close. >> I don't want it to, but actually, it's not closing much yet. Because it's not closing much, the US is still far from Japan. 3. But the US definitely has an advantage over Japan. >> What is it? >> It still has innovation. >> No, this topic, Brother Moo needs to talk to me a bit. It's starting to decline. >> Oh, it's starting to decline, but it still needs to use the news that among the top 10 in the world for innovation and global patents, the US is only one country, Harvard is ranked 3rd, the rest are all China. >> I think these things will have an impact in another 5-10 years, brother. >> It's not that fast yet, because, brother, don't forget, like Elon Musk, or even those who made these generations, the latest generation that created AI and all that, it's a generation that was designed before that. >> Before Trump came in and changed the US structure, right? So it's still a legacy that carries on. >> Another generation, not another one, can it? I don't know, but at least for another period, 10 years. >> But if you mean, hey, next time, next time, >> This, brother, this is important now. >> Patents. >> I'll ask you simply, if in the next round, let's say, there's something new that shakes the world in terms of competition, development, whatever it may be, then the US will be tired. >> There's nothing, no technology anymore. >> Because the next generations, there's starting to be none, you see. >> Hmm, Elon Musk is an outsider who came in. >> Oh, that's 30-40 years ago. >> And the various CEOs who >> That's right, under the circle, under the people [laughs], they are all outsiders. I'll use the word "outsider" then. >> Foreigners. >> Ah, they are foreigners, some are of Indian descent, some Taiwanese, some Chinese. Oh, not many Chinese because the US has pushed them all out. >> Uh, and there are also, like, South Africans. >> See, Elon, right? But if the next generations have problems, >> That means the next generation will be weak. >> So I see that the US has structural problems in the next generation. >> Hmm. >> The next generation might be in about 10 years. >> Following in Japan's footsteps closely, everything is like, it's like they've learned from Japan. >>
So if you ask if Japan has problems now, it definitely does, because Japan's structure, these problems have been there for 30-40 years. >> And today, in the past, interest rates were 0. Now they're rising, but they don't dare to raise them much, because if they raise them a lot, their own economy will go downhill again. >> "Raise a lot" means how much is considered a lot for raising interest rates, huh? >> How much is considered a lot? >> Oh, 2-3% is already a lot, brother, really? >> For Japan, yes. >> Now the US is at 3.75, 75, right? >> Will Japan be similar to the US in the future? >> Well, now it's why the Yen is weak, because of the US. >> Hmm. >>
I, I use my own way of thinking, the US is probably deceiving the world. >> Hey, we're going to raise interest rates. >> Oh. >> Ah, 2-3 times in 2026. >> I don't believe they'll raise them. >> Really? >> Yes. >> Who's deceiving? >> I don't know if it's their foreign brokers or who, I don't know. The question is, where does the market's current belief that the US will raise interest rates 2-3 times come from? >> Uh, from some commentary, perhaps? >> It comes from foreign brokers. >> Brokers talking, talking. >> Ah, I don't want to name names. What is this, uh, where does 8 come from? >> Don't know. >> Is it made up? >> Uh, they point to, uh, candlesticks, candlesticks. >> Uh, what is it, what kind of candle, candle? >> Uh, no, the point is, what is it, brother? Let me think with you. In May, inflation was 4.2%, 2%. >> Yes. >> June. >> Hmm. >> Definitely below 4. >> Decreasing. >> But how much, I don't know, below 4. >> July, even lower. >> Decreasing continuously. >> Decreasing further, so that means in 3-4 months, US inflation has a chance >> Hmm. >> To go down to the low 3s. >> Hmm. >> Or below 3. >> Hmm. >> In 3-4-5 months. >> Hmm. >> Therefore, if the trend is like this, >> Raising interest rates definitely cannot use inflation as a reason. >> Other reasons. >> It must be some other reason if they're going to raise them. Now, what other reasons are there that might lead to a raise? Normally, the reasons for raising interest rates are inflation as number 1, and number 2 might be because the economy is overheating, uh. >> Ah, for example, GDP rising a lot. >> Need to reduce it a bit. >> Or, uh, too many people are employed. >> Hmm, hmm, hmm. >> Is that happening to the US right now? >> No. >> No, it's not happening. >> No. >> Ah, this reason is out. What's the reason, sir? >> Don't know. >> What's the third reason to raise interest rates, huh? >> Hmm. >> It might be hidden, which is to keep the dollar strong. Oh, that helps. >> And what else, sir? >> Hmm. >> And they might want to issue bonds. >> Sell bonds. >> See, they have to keep the dollar strong. >> Hmm. >> Uh, raise interest rates. >> That helps, too. >> No, not raise interest rates, I misspoke. Send a signal to raise interest rates. >> Bonds won't sell, raise interest rates a bit, then they can sell. >> Yeah, that's right, brother. But after selling, then let's say when the actual time comes, "Hey, we're not raising them anymore." Oh. >> Then what? >> But it's already sold. It's like you selling, like I told you, "Hey, this car is good." >> Uh-huh. >> But in reality, >> I already sold it to you, right? When the time comes, you say, "Hey," >> Don't know anything. >> No, not doing it anymore. I think it will be like this. So today, the unlucky ones are gold investors. Because when the US says it will fall, it will rise, it will rise, gold then falls. >>
And actually, I think the US has been, in my language, waiting for a long time, waiting for an opportunity. >> Waiting to do what? >> Oh, gold is an enemy of the dollar. >> Oh, gold down, dollar up. >> If gold goes up, the dollar will naturally go down. Now, today is the best opportunity. Normally, when a war ends, gold goes up, not down. >> That's right. >> Why did gold fall? Because America suddenly sent out what's called "too much kapang." >> Kapang. >> Why is it too much of a coincidence that as soon as you're about to end the war, these brokers and whatnot that I mentioned, they all come out sending signals, saying, "Hey, the Fed will raise interest rates 2-3 times"? >> Oh. >> We just talked about this a few days ago. >> Yes, yes, yes. >> Do you think it's a coincidence? >> It's planned. >> Uh, see? [laughs] Planned. I think this is very smooth. And I believe it's not likely to go up, I don't believe it. And what people told me is that Mr. Kevin will show off. >> True. >> Hey, a lot of people are watching this show-off. >> Raising interest rates, he's not the only one making the decision. He's just 1 vote. >> Yes. >> Out of 18 votes. Do you think the remaining 17 votes will believe and agree with him if inflation falls a lot? >> They say 9 people agree. >> I don't believe it'll reach that. >> Not reaching it? What reason would they have to raise interest rates? And the more they raise it, the more they dislike it. >> The more they curse it. >> Yeah, that's right. And I think, what reason would it have to go up? >> Difficult, huh? >>
Seriously, if they raise interest rates, it means my logic is flawed, or their logic is flawed, I don't know who is confused. >> Kevin said it must be unpredictable, he tried to issue short statements because he doesn't want anyone to guess whether it's going up or down. And can we really guess? >> Well, this is what he said, "From now on, we won't speak, we won't guide." Uh, uh, this is funny, right? >> It's funny, right? And if you don't guide, and you don't tell anyone anything, doesn't that make the market volatile? >> No, so they sent someone else to guide instead. >> Who? >> Brokers, you see. >> Uh, did the Fed speak? >> The Fed doesn't guide, but brokers guide instead. >> And where do brokers get their information from? >> I don't know, I really don't know, but I just don't think it's true. >> Yes. >> And I believe that the US is unlikely to actually raise interest rates. >> Hmm. >> Because if they raise interest rates, they will lose more than they gain. >> Hmm. >> It's not worth it, sir. And inflation will definitely go down, down, down. There's no reason at all for the US to raise interest rates. >> Hmm. >> This is my belief, let's keep watching. >> Hmm. >> There are reasons, sir, I can listen, but whether to believe or not is up to each person, huh? Because some people might have their own reasons. Brother Moo, do you think that with Kevin Watch becoming the central bank governor this time, will it cause any major, enormous policy changes, or will it be similar? >> I think it's similar to inviting a faint Powell. >> Hmm, not much difference. >> I mean, lowering interest rates won't be much, raising them won't be much. >> I think right now, the US is in a situation where it needs to use high interest rates. >> Continuously. >> To support its own country. >> Hmm. >> In a way that prevents the dollar from weakening too much. >> Hmm. >> To still have the ability >> To persuade and attract investors to buy its own bonds. >> Hmm. >> Even though there's a group that doesn't want it anymore, uh. >> Right, huh? >> Hmm. >> And to keep interest rates fixed around this level, 3 and up. I think if they lower it, it shouldn't be below 3%. If they raise it, >> Hmm. >> It shouldn't be below 4 points, shouldn't be above 4% plus. But I still don't see a reason why they need to raise interest rates. >> Hmm, hmm. >> But I might believe that they might lower interest rates more. >> Okay. >> But this time, the market is leading towards raising interest rates. >> Hmm. >> Which I think is incorrect guidance. >> Hmm. >> You know, I believe that. >> Hmm. >> So let's wait and see in the next few months, 1-2 months, we'll know how our predictions turn out. >> Already recorded. >> Yes, record it. >> Brother Boo said it won't go up, right? >> I think it won't go up, uh. >> I think it won't go up. >> If it's correct, please praise and commend it, just like last time I came to make a definitive statement with you, saying, "Hey, June will end," uh. >> That before Sunthorn Phu Day. >> Uh-huh. >> Or before the end of June. >> This event is over, the war is over, huh? >> Uh, Thai is accurate, huh? If so, you could be a fortune teller, huh? [laughs] >>
This is a joke. I have another question. Por Kung Maen came out and said that Tesla is the one manipulating stocks, a pyramid scheme, actually it's Tesla. He's so bold, so will the American people dare to play stocks? >> Oh wow, brother, is Tesla manipulating? Actually, it's Space X. >> Yes. >> Because if we look at Tesla's PE, it's very high. >> Hmm, hmm. >> I mean, when we say if a stock is a bubble, if it's being manipulated, if there's a lot of speculation, we have to look at whether its PE is high, whether its valuation is high. >> Tesla itself will be one of the >> Uh, clear examples. >> Yes. >> But if it's other stocks in the Magnificent 7, it might not be. >> Hmm. >> Ah, Space X is the same. >> Hmm. >> Sir, as soon as it came in, oh wow, the PE is unwatchable. >> It's ugly. >> It's high, it's very high, sir. So I think Elon Musk, he's talented, sir. >> Hmm. >> He has 1. He has psychology, he understands psychology. >> Hmm. >> 2. Sir, he's skilled in the sense that he, uh, made Mission Impossible possible. >> That's right, selling dreams. Like back then, who would believe that a rocket launched up would come back and be reusable like he does every day now? This, we have to give him credit, sir, that he actually did it. >> And that made the cost of launching rockets decrease enormously. >> 2,000 baht. >> And then when he made EVs, back then people didn't believe that EV cars would seriously take off, but he succeeded. So he's done at least 2 things. And he was also a co-founder and supporter of Open AI, let's say a part of it. If you want to say he was involved in creating, uh, a wave of AI growth, you could say that. So these 3 points make people confident in Elon Musk, giving him a premium, uh, let's call it a "Musk premium." Now the question is, will this "Musk premium" be correct for the 4th, 5th time? >> Not sure, huh? >> I don't know, sir. For example, will Space X reach the dream he talked about, like building a data center in space, right, huh? Ah, as planned, or building, uh, something on the moon? >> This, I don't know if it's true or not. >> Impossible. >> Is it really possible? >> Possible. >> This, this is the dream, huh, that Space X is pursuing. >> Hmm. >> I have to answer that it depends on whether you believe it or not. >> Hmm. >> So I think, if it were me, I would see Space X, in my opinion, >> Hmm. >> Don't, don't put too much into it, sir. Because I, I believe this, brother: if you make EVs on Earth, you launch rockets up and they come back down, right? And you're part of AI, things like that, I think it's highly possible. >> Yes. >> But if you look at it like, "Hey, going to do something on Mars," or "going to the moon," hmm, it's >> What's the benefit of that? >> Will it be that fast? >> Fast, but it can be fast, it's possible. >> Meaning the possibility. >> Uh, it's possible. >> The first thing is, 2. Necessity. >> So, run, run, run. >> Today, do you need to go do something on the moon, brother? >> That's right. >> Even if it can be done, that's one thing. >> To do what? >> Why do it? Is there nowhere left to go on Earth? >> Our world is still vast, it's not that big, there's still a lot of space, brother. Many countries have a lot of desolate, empty land. So I look at it more from the perspective of necessity, that if there's no, no necessity, even if you can do it, >> Hmm. >> Is it economically worthwhile? >> Hmm. >> This is a question mark for me. >> Yes. >> But in the case of rockets, uh, it has, it has. >> Ah, it has, sir, in the case of. >> Cars, EVs, they also have. >> You want, uh, but in your case, you're saying build a data center in space. >> That's good. >> I think it might exist in the future, in 5-10 years. But if you ask me, "What will they build on the moon? What will they build on Mars?" >> They want to go to Mars because they want to live in a new world, you see. >> For what? >> For his happiness. >> I don't know, in my belief, it's not that far yet, unless you say, "Oh, our world, they're bombing it with nukes like in the movies." >> No place to live anymore. >> Uh, uh, something like that. But if it's not like that, sir, I still don't see it. Even if I believe he can do it, it might still fail. >> Can do it, but the benefit isn't worth it, you see. >> Yes, so Space X, it has, it has expectations built into the stock price, things like this. So I think, think carefully, sir, whether it's >> Is it worth it or not? Uh, yes, if it's not worthwhile, it will be crazy, sir. Uh, because it will be wrong, huh? This, you have to think carefully, sir. >> Those who bought at 200 have already profited. >> So I see that what people say, uh, Mr. Elon, that he manipulates, I think it's not really called manipulation. What is it called? >> He calls it, uh, successfully using expectations to drive up stock prices. And what happened in the past, coincidentally, sir, is that he actually delivered, so we have to admit that he's talented. But for the next part in the future, I'm not sure, sir. If it were me, honestly, I wouldn't put too much money on this hope. I'm scared, and especially if the price has risen this much, I feel even more that it's not something I feel I should be hoping for. >> Yes, that's the reason why Space X stock fell by 30%. [Music] >>
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