Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, back from the market. We will talk about BTC in the first instance, which is still at its resistance level. Then, we will talk about my trading session, which I finished a few minutes ago. So, there you go, I closed two good trades. I will tell you why I entered the position. Here, we are really on a very, very short term, something I don't usually do, but given the market context, I have a better success rate at the moment and I am more comfortable trading on a very short term. We will then talk about Ether and we will look at three altcoins that were asked to be analyzed. I have here OK, Ido and fait, and we will finish, of course, with the US market.
So, I'll start here with the uh BTC. Well, we are still in this resistance zone. For me, apart from looking for shorts, there is nothing to do right now. We are still stuck in a range between two boundaries, preceded by a bearish dynamic, and we see that we cannot break here. We simply have buyers who try once, twice, three times, but it doesn't work. Each time we have stop hunts here and selling reactions. We have a classic absorption here. We can see it even more clearly if we look at the order flow anyway. Here, I'll switch to 1 hour, I'll look at the price evolution compared to the CVD evolution. And we simply see that each time we go there, we make higher highs on the price, but on the spot CVD and the future CVD, we make lower highs. I remind you that CVD is simply the cumulative volume delta. It simply accumulates the difference between aggressive buyers and aggressive sellers. And it allows us to see on a movement whether we have more selling pressure or buying pressure. And in this kind of scenario, we simply make higher highs and lower highs. Well, that indicates to us that uh on the price we are going up, but the volumes are not following. We really have selling pressure. We see it here on the spot, we see it here on the uh futures. So, for me, there is nothing that tells me at the moment that we are trying to establish a bottom. And currently, we are at the uh high extremity and we are rejecting. We are rejecting once again. In any case, this is the best place to take shorts. That's all there is to do. Either we take shorts in this zone to revisit the low extremity with a partial TP that can be set around the middle of the range, because this is a range. We have a low extremity here. Hop, approximately, and a high extremity here. There. And a range, and a middle of the range around $89,000. Now, in a range, when you are at the high extremity, the best thing to do is to take shorts. It's simply to take shorts with a clear invalidation above the range.
So, either we have a tight invalidation above this level, or we have a slightly more cautious invalidation above this level. That's up to you to decide. Automatically, you won't have the same risk-reward. Let's say you entered around here with a tight invalidation, whether it's to aim for the middle of the range or the opposite extremity. Well, yes, you won't have the same risk-reward, but automatically, you won't have the same success rate on the other side. The higher your risk-reward, the lower your success rate will be. And many people think that with a very high risk-reward, they can still maintain a high success rate. No. Okay. If you have a risk of 7, 8, 9, 10 for one, you cannot have a 70% success rate. It's not possible, okay? It's mathematical, but in any case, that's for you to define based on your trading profile what is most suitable for you. Now, as I said, BTC, I remain cautious. I've been telling you for a while, whether it's short, medium, or long term. For me, this is a phase of lateralization before potentially returning to the range or going lower. I'm not trying to predict, okay? But I base myself on my convictions and my analysis that I do of the market. Okay? And when I see bearish impulses, ranges, bearish impulses, ranges, bearish impulses, ranges, the most probable thing is a continuation in the direction of the trend. That doesn't mean it's 100% sure. Okay? I can't predict what's next, and I don't want to bet on a short where I say we're going to $73,000. But in any case, for me, I have more conviction to say that we are in a bearish trend, we are in a bearish flow. The most probable thing is a continuation of this flow. Why? Because when I was in a bullish trend, I said the opposite, we were in a bullish flow here. I told you that here it's a range, more chance of breaking upwards. This is a range, more chance of breaking upwards until we have an inversion of our dynamic. Function like this in the first instance. Determine your bias. Okay? Is the market bullish or is the market bearish? That's already a first point. If you can identify a bias, you already have a market direction. You've done, I don't want to say the hardest part, but you've done a big part of the job, which is to know whether you're going to look for longs or shorts. When there's a bullish trend, I'm addressing especially those who trade in the direction of the trend. I don't trade against the trend, but in any case, those who do, well, don't listen to what I say. But for any beginner, even intermediate, even advanced, I recommend you to follow the trend. In any case, that's what's most suitable for my profile. When you have a trend, you determine your bias. Okay? The bias is not determined after this impulse of our bullish trend. The bias is determined as soon as there is an inversion of our structure. At this level, we already know that we are in a bullish trend. If you arrive here, it's too late. So, we determine the bias. Very good. Okay, I have a bullish bias. Well, very good. Well, when I have corrections, I will look for longs at intermediate levels. These can be moving averages, they can be uh support zones, that's for you to determine. And of course, you don't take uh shorts if you have a bullish bias.
Now, there are several timeframes. I'm talking about the medium term here. I don't have any specific longs activating, especially when we are close to a resistance level. And when I look at the moving averages, we still have medium and long-term moving averages oriented downwards. We have a 15-minute and 1-hour that is flat. I am not currently trading the trend on the short term. That's why I have trading sessions here that are a bit different from usual. Okay, I'll explain my way of trading at the moment a bit later, setups that I'm bringing back from before. There, it depends on, let's say, the market context. But my favorite context is this. There. Or display it like this. This. Okay. My favorite context is this. Strong bearish momentum with moving averages oriented downwards. That's the best. When we are in this kind of context, well, either I do nothing, or I zoom in really on the very, very short term to find opportunities. It will depend a bit on how I want to organize my day, if I want to trade or not. I'm not in need. What is really important is that you should not be in need to trade constantly. If you say today I don't have a setup, you don't overtrade. For me, it's very simple. I open the charts. Well, already, I'm quite often in front of the charts. Uh on the medium term, I don't need to look at the charts constantly. And if I do intraday or scalping, then it will depend. When I trade this kind of movement, it's mostly intraday. And when we are in this kind of movement, I know that on intraday, I won't have a lot of setups. So, there are two choices. Either I do nothing, or I do scalping. And as I say, it will depend on my priorities, on what I want to do, on whether I have other things to manage or not. That, of course, depends on each person's profile.
Now, uh well, we have a selling reaction that is underway, a good market dump, we see it on BTC, Ether, and uh the US market. Which, as I said, doesn't surprise me given the order flow and given this uh selling pressure that is still ongoing, and especially even from a price action point of view, well, we remain here in a bearish dynamic. So, for buyers, there are two zones where you can intervene. Either here, but it's not the ideal zone, or the low extremity where it's clearly a better, a better zone if we have a buying reaction.
Regarding my trading session, I redid this sequence because I went into explanations that were too in-depth, and for 20 minutes, I talked, and I think I lost more than one person. So I told myself, "Okay, I know what I want to say now, since I talked about it for 20 minutes, I'll summarize it in 7 to 10 minutes, maximum." So, as I explained, we are in a context for me on intraday, I don't have any setups triggering. So, either I generally do scalping, or I do nothing. Here, I had setups that were executed. Uh, it's a way of trading that you are not at all used to seeing me trade because I use tools that uh I present in the "Becoming a Trader" course, notably here, Volume Profiles. We go into detail, but on a daily basis, you don't see them used much.
So, what you need to understand is that when I trade, if I do long-term, swing, intraday, okay, scalping, I'll put that aside, you'll see why. When I trade this way, I use price action, I use indicators like moving averages, Vegas tunnels, pivot points, etc. When I do scalping, I don't work at all with these tools, these indicators, because for me, when you do scalping, you need very precise entries. You need to be able to exit quickly, enter quickly, and that requires having indicators like Volume Profile, Market Profile, CVD, Footprint, etc. Because for me, on the short term, I prefer to work this way. I have a better success rate, and I can't, and it's very complicated to trade with MACD, for example, on a 1-minute chart. In any case, I can't, because the signals are too delayed, and on the short term, it's much more complicated to trade. You need to have much more precise signals.
So, how does it work when I trade? What you need to understand is that I generally ask myself two questions. Am I in my value area? Okay, so here we see that we have a range. Okay? Am I in my value area? So, where 70% of the volumes are traded, and am I in a high volatility or low volatility phase? Generally, high volatility, in 90% of cases, will be either after a news event, or the New York session. To put it simply, either there's news coming out, Trump speaking, something like that in the world that impacts the markets, or it's the New York session. And generally, low volatility will be everything else. There, so the London session, like today, hop, London session where there was very little volatility, and I don't operate the same way depending on whether I have high volatility or low volatility. To put it simply, when I have low volatility, I will mainly play false breakouts, like we have here. I took a trade at this level, I'll show you just after. False breakouts, re-entry, target to reach the opposite extremity or a POC. And when I have high volatility, it's very rare, well, it's rarer to have false breakouts. So I will rather play breakouts, like I played here during the New York session. So, uh, there you go, generally how I, how I operate.
We'll look at the trades I took. So, here I have a perfect example. So, in the meantime, the volume profile has evolved. So, we'll put back the one I was looking at. Hop, click. We'll put it from here to here. Hop. There. So, at this level, as I said, low volatility, we are in a range, and when there isn't too much volatility, when there isn't too much volume, we see the difference. Here, I just need to put the volume indicator. We see the difference between the London session and the New York session. Not the same world. Of course, when we have low volatility like this, generally, we have a lot of false breakouts, and the proof is here, we went to look below our value low. We had a liquidity grab, we even had a close below this level, but directly a re-entry. And here, at the moment we re-entered, I entered aggressively by market. Stop loss below the low, TP at the POC level. There, that's a rather simple trade. That's how I generally operate when there isn't too much volatility, playing false breakouts, breaks followed by a re-entry. If we don't re-enter here, I don't take a short because there isn't too much volatility, there isn't too much volume, and we could be on false breakouts. There won't be momentum like we had during the New York session. So, that's a first trade, let's say it's the simplest. This type of trade I take, the operation is a bit different. What I will watch is, okay, where am I? Very good, I'm in my value area, great, and I'll watch where my value is. Very good. At this level, it was approximately here. I'll redraw it because in the meantime it has evolved. So, automatically, it's created. It depends at least on me taking this short. I look, we are at this moment, okay, we are at my value level, and then I look, I say, very good, what is the next equilibrium point? Because the market is either in an equilibrium zone here, okay, within our value, or it's in a disequilibrium zone, meaning outside the value area. And we see that the market behaves a bit like this. Here, all of this is periodic volume profiles. Here, we see that we have a large equilibrium zone because there is enormous volume. POC at this level. POC. Then, we look. Okay, if we break downwards, where is the next equilibrium zone? The next equilibrium zone is globally here. If we break upwards, where is the next zone? It's globally here. So, that means that it leaves us zones here, for example, see at this level, or if we had broken downwards at this level to play momentum, to play where there is more volatility because we are entering disequilibrium zones. So, I identify that, and then at this level, I say to myself, if we break upwards, very good, where is my next equilibrium zone? Well, here, we have a POC. Okay, but then there's not much else because, uh, we're not far from the high extremity, so we'll have to look for other POCs. But well, already, I have more conviction that it will break downwards because we saw all the analysis just before, we were at a resistance level, and especially something quite nice happened to me there. A grab of the low, deviation, re-entry, a grab of the high, deviation, re-entry at a level again. When we deviate in one direction and then the other, generally, we go back in the first direction we deviated. And similarly, I identify, I say to myself, okay, if it breaks downwards, what is it? Where is my zone? We return to equilibrium.
So, I have globally two, two zones. I have this first zone here where we come back to a very relevant level. Why? Because I globally have here our value high of this zone. I have pressing value area zones. So, globally, we return to this large value area zone. And then, I could have refined it. I didn't do it here. I wanted to secure it quite quickly because it was my second trade, and then I have two or three things to do. And here, I have my POC. So, the real value area zone, our equilibrium zone, is really here. We see that we have perfectly returned. So, how do I operate from this point on? Hop, I go back to this chart. So, I take this volume profile which is like this at this moment. Very good, I look at the 5-minute chart for what I want in 5 minutes. So, I'm in the New York session, I have quite a bit of volatility. What I look at is, okay, do we have a break? Yes, at this level, we have a break. So, we have less chance of a false breakout already because we made an upward deviation. We trapped quite a few people, quite a few buyers who are underwater, and we have quite a bit of volume. We break this level. Very good. The goal is to position ourselves with a professional entry because if I position myself at the close, you see, I have a 2:1 for where I have my TP. It's not great. With my entry, I already have a 6.6:1 ratio. That changes absolutely everything. So, here, the goal is when I have this close, I switch to 1 minute and I say to myself, "Okay, where can I have an interesting pullback to enter the position?" Now, some will play a pullback on their resistance zone, on moving averages, on there are those who will have an imbalance here and say, "Okay, well, at the moment of the pullback, I'll enter." What I like is something that I teach, by the way, in the "Becoming a Trader" program with Volume Profiles, sorry, it's LVNs. The value node is simply zones. Here, I globally take this movement and I say, "Okay, if we retrace, where is my zone?" And it's globally a disequilibrium, a fair value gap. In short, it's in the imbalance zone where is the zone where I have really the least volume possible. And the least volume possible is in this zone, at this level. And we see that we pull back perfectly. I enter here with a stop loss above this high. I tell myself if we start to re-enter the value, to push, it's really a re-entry. So I want to exit, and my goal is not to have a stop loss too far away, and the trade goes rather well, and I exit at this level, where I had defined, or where I had simply defined my zone of interest, and as I say, I had things to do, I had to film this video, I have things to do afterwards. So I didn't want to keep this trade for too long, even though I could have. Unlike when I do intraday or swing trading, I can, for example, have a trade in progress and do something else. I have alerts, etc. When we are really on the short term like this, no, I am in front of the screens, it's impossible to leave the screens. And you see that in the end, what I was telling you earlier, we go from an equilibrium zone to a disequilibrium zone to come back to an equilibrium zone.
So, now, what we need to look at is, okay, will we consolidate? We are in this equilibrium zone. If we break upwards again, well, we can do exactly the same thing. So, there you go, I wanted to share this trading session with you, perhaps a bit more complex than some trades I've shown you. I know you're not used to seeing me operate with these different tools, these different indicators, but as I say, given the volatility we have here, uh, well, we don't have a real trend. So, there you go, as I say, either I don't trade, or I trade with volume, Volume Profiles on the very short term.
So, on that note, regarding BTC, for Ether, quite quickly because the video will be long afterwards. I think I've summarized well because really earlier, I talked for I don't know how long and I told myself, no, let's stop there, let's start again. Uh, well, Ether, we rejected $3004, we are going back under the 4-hour, under the 1-hour. Well, given what we are doing, for me, it's to come back to the low extremity at $2008. This is the next, next objective. Uh, we have an inversion of our dynamic here. We see it well with the break of this low and this low. So, we are going back into a bearish trend with moving averages oriented downwards with this POC here. And Ether is becoming bearish again. It had its rally, though. It's a rally too. Someone tells me this isn't bullish, we had a rise of more than 30%. So it's completely normal to have this kind of rebound. We are in a bearish dynamic. In bearish dynamics, we have rebounds. There, like we had. See, hop, here, we had a rebound of +15%. Here, we also had a rebound of +60% which is still proportional to the drop we had. But for now, it's not a long-term bullish recovery. We saw that we had a W structure. That's a fact at this level. Low, high, low, higher high, break, pullback. Okay. But in any case, we validated a long-term bottom. We see it well because a long-term bottom is a weekly chart. Perhaps we will validate it, perhaps we will retrace and do this, and we will never reach $2002, it's possible. But for now, I don't have a validated bottom on Ether. So, we saw that $3004 was a good zone to look for shorts or to take profits for someone who had positioned themselves as a buyer in this zone. Now, we are returning to a zone that doesn't interest me. Interesting. Uh, the zone would be interesting if we come back to the low extremity. There, not much on Ether either. We still have these pivot points to watch. Here, we have a weekly pivot point of $3000, a good zone with our psychological number as well. And then, we have $2770. If I put moving averages here, as I said, we are going under the 15-minute, under the 1-hour, under the 4-hour. If we maintain this bearish momentum here, I could potentially take trades as a shorter to follow the trend until we revisit this low extremity. Uh, I'm analyzing the US market here, the US market which is also down. And I told you to be careful if the market drops and re-enters $6008, it's not the case yet, but if it goes back under this level, be wary. Okay, and I'm not even talking about if we go under this level, cryptos will really take a hit. So, for now, there isn't a big bullish signal on the US market either. We are still with bullish momentum. There, we see it well, the 15-minute above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour. But if we really start to re-enter these levels, it will really bleed for me on the cryptos. So, S&P 500, Nasdaq, it's the same. Nasdaq, hop, we are already lower on the Nasdaq which is correcting a bit more, and we are really on the zone to defend at this level. See, if we start to re-enter this level, it wouldn't be good, and we could accelerate again and come back to much lower levels.
Uh, regarding altcoins, I'm bringing up the list. Very good. I have OKB, OKB, OKB, click, weekly. Wow! So, already for investment, I really struggle. There's too much volatility. Uh, I prefer to position myself when I have this type of pattern. See, small W structures like this, re-entries of levels. There, it's already more interesting. Here, we had a pump, we took off. In fact, there's no scenario where it's interesting to position yourself, to position yourself here, because when you look at the BTC chart, when you look at the altcoin landscape, the crypto market in general, if you enter here, you take big risks. Already, we've retraced a lot, we've gone back above, below the moving averages. We see it well, we are below the daily, we are below the 4-hour. Ah, it pumped too much. Tell yourself that for an altcoin, when it pumps like this, it's too late. You have to wait for it to stabilize. I'll take the example of Dogecoin, which is a very good example. See, when it pumps like this, it's too late. It's that here, you see on OK, we are perhaps here, here, or here. But there's too much volatility. It's too complicated. It's much too high. Yes, you can put a Fibonacci here and say, "Ah yes, we are at the 0.18 level," but when the crypto has had such a big performance, 0.8 means nothing. It means nothing. Take 0.18 on BTC, Ether, because we won't have this kind of chart on BTC, Ether. But on altcoins like this that pump, you can be there, as I said on OK, well, wait for the chart to stabilize. See, it's stabilizing now, and that's already more interesting. Here, you have better entries. I'm not saying it will do another x15, but you already have a much more professional entry with a simpler invalidation. Here, if you enter OK, your invalidation is below the low. Okay, maybe, but this is not long-term trading, it's intraday, swing trading at most, or long-term trading, but it's not long-term investment either. For me, here, the best, well, the best trades are this. Long-term trades. Here, it's a W structure, please, below the low, it takes off. Pullback. If you missed the entry, you look for a long on the trendline, but here it's too much. Globally, we would have to come back to $50. Well, $55, we settle here, we lateralize, it's a good zone. But I don't like this kind of chart. When it pumps like this, it's too late.
Next, I have an analysis of Ido. Uh, I'm having trouble noting it. Let's assume it's Ido. I think I made a mistake. Hop, LDO. So, click. Uh, Lido, it's ugly. Now, we are at very low levels, but we need a buying signal. Here, we are yes, at support levels. So, we will rather look for longs than shorts. However, there's a lack of buying reaction, a lack of flow, a lack of reversal structure. Still under the 4-hour, under the daily, here, moving averages oriented downwards, there's nothing to do unless we start to establish ourselves above 0.67. Let's say 0.67, validation of this W structure. We would break the H4 tunnel. We could say, "Okay, there's a bottom established here," and we could push to come back to the In tunnel. It's complicated to enter a position. However, if we have this, we can have a small setup triggering with a long on the retest, a stop loss below the low, and there you go, it can give a 2:1 risk-reward. What is certain is that yes, it's better to look for longs than shorts at this level, but we see that on the long term, the trend here remains bearish.
And the last crypto, FTT, well, you know my view, it's ugly. FTT, it's lower highs on the long term. It's the same. Yes, we've come back to interesting levels. The problem is that we are not invalidating this bearish trend. We are still in a bearish trend because we can't break the highs. See, there was a potential for a W structure here. We didn't achieve it. Here, there's a potential, but for now, we are not achieving it, we are not achieving this pattern. Uh, yeah, there's nothing to do for now. There are many altcoins, there's nothing to do at all. You put moving averages, as long as we are below the 4-hour or below the daily, depending on whether you are really on the long term, very, very long term, then you sit on your hands. There, you sit on your hands and you don't try to buy uh this kind of altcoin which can continue to fall for a long time. That's a fact. Look, look at STX. Look at this. See, if you want to position yourself too quickly, no, you wait. Elliot wave tunnel. Very good. We are evolving below, below, below, below. Always below. I wait. It will be like 2022, 2023. Look, look. ADA below the daily. I wait, I wait, I wait. I do nothing. Well, no, I do nothing. Still, still not. Here, I have a false breakout. And even then, if you enter there, you have a much more interesting entry than if you enter here or here. And hop, I'm still waiting. I wait, I wait, I wait. Ah, a real breakout here. Then I enter. You don't immobilize your capital for months, and you have a very good entry. It will work the same way on FTT, on STX. Be careful, it's not because we break the daily tunnel that it's off to the moon. But you see, in fact, it's the same, during the bull and bear market. Hop, we lose the daily here, we evolve below. Below, below, below, break. Ah, here it's not bad. Even here. Hop, we lose it. We wait, we wait, we wait. Here, first break, second break, here it's rather good. However, you have good risk management. It's not because we break the daily tunnel that it will automatically be a x20, but it can be a very good reference point. In any case, on FTT, we are coming to support levels, but no bottom yet.
There, I'm finished. I'll leave you with this. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.