Transcription
We're back with the waiver wire. Monday Night Football has, uh, ended, if you were able to watch the stream. Luckily, in Canada, you were unaffected, but in America, we had to go, uh, to other apps, other websites to watch this one. So, hopefully, we're recording this live. Hopefully, there's no injuries tonight, but we'll have reaction to Monday Night Football and the NFL trade deadline tomorrow. So, this is all the stuff that's happened before then.
We've had some rookies break out. We've had some injuries like Brian Thomas. We'll have to get to Matthew Golden, Kahan Booty, Jaden Daniels, and then obviously the big one with Tucker Craft. So, let's stick with the tight end position. Jacob Coulson Lovelin, somebody that you and I both really liked. We've had to be patient. Hopefully, you guys have not dropped him if he is available in your league, like most leagues. How, how aggressive should we be? How much of this was just because KT was not out there? How much of this was just the Bengals? And how much of this was just Coulson Lovelin being that guy?
>> I mean, it's a mix of all three. I think that the one that I'm least interested in hearing about is, "Oh, Cole KT got hurt." Like, this is one of those things where I'll, you know, if you tell me if Cole KT never gets hurt, he never has this game. I, I'll acknowledge that, you know, but he was already running more routes than Cole KT. Um, he was already seeing more designed targets than Cole KT. And at this point, like, we've never really seen anything, especially this season, really in the last two seasons from Cole KT that would suggest that he's capable of this type of performance, that he's capable of the type of game-winning, game-breaking superstar play that he winds up making in this spot. So, it probably just expedited the takeover, but I don't see this being a spot where they go back and like, "Man, we got to get Cole KT back involved as soon as he is healthy enough to." Um, I think that Lovelin affirmed himself as the clear tight end one. I would expect him to be in the 70 to 80% route range for the most of the rest of the year.
Uh, the Bengals thing is real. Um, the, the Bengals, you've been on this, uh, great on Twitter. They have a horrendous defense, but they do have one really good player on that defense. Um, and so DJ Turner is, is a guy where if you're like a really good player on an awful defense, it's one of the most easy avoids for any offense because they're like, "We can throw at anybody else. Like, why would we even bother testing the one dude who's actually a professional football player here?" So, that's kind of what they did and it wound up with everybody eating except for Roman Wilson, who hilariously gets zero catches in this 89-point game. That really funnels, um, a lot of the production towards running backs and tight ends. The linebackers in Cincinnati are atrocious. Um, and so it's just naturally you're going to get those middle of the field targets. It's tight end, it's volatile, it can be matchup dependent, all that stuff, but nobody outside of Rome in every other week has consistently impressed us on the Chicago Bears. So again, I think we've been saying all year the door is wide open for him to be the number two target. I, I don't see a reason why he can't be. Um, I think he projects as like, I don't know, where would you put him in the rest of season? Like, somewhere in the tight end 8 to 12 range, probably.
>> Yeah, that, that's about right. And then if he kind of repeats there, I think there's a pathway to him being like the tight end six or somewhere, uh, in that range. So he was just an excellent pro prospect. So I think we, everybody saw the game-winner. I wanted to just mention the 3x1 set where he was the isolated like wide receiver on the other side. Slant route touchdown, just man coverage bodied him. And that's what he did at Michigan too. And not every single tight end gets that route. He also had that same touchdown obviously, but even not even this game, in just previous games, he's getting choice routes just in the slot. Not every single tight end gets those type of routes. So, he's getting the routes that are given to like legit dudes and it's just on him to make a couple plays and I know that he's very capable of doing that. I thought that he was actually a plus blocker as well in this game too. Had a couple, sprung a couple run blocks as well. So, um, yeah, I think he's very, very good. And I think what you said just kind of leveling up, just not for Coulson Lovelin. There are veterans that are going to block rookies, but once the rookie has broken out, it's hard to put the cat back in the bag. And I think that's what happened here. And you just said that where maybe he doesn't have this game if Cole KT is out there. But now that we've seen this, I mean, how could he possibly go away with this? And just looking at the Cole KT contract, no guaranteed money, uh, next year. Has $1.6 million in pro-rated signing bonuses for the next couple years. But this is a very clear-cut candidate next year or a trade candidate or just take a pay cut candidate. And the offense is going to go through Coulson Lovelin and Roman Wilson for the future. So, very excited about this one. I think you agree, tight end top 8 to 12 is probably.
>> Yeah. Like, I mean, unfortunately, we lost one of the stud tight ends this week, but like the only tight ends that I would say confidently you prefer over him: Bowers, McBride, Kmet, Ferguson, LaPorta, K.T. And after that, it's like, kind of take your pick, right? That's, that's six guys and then you get into a range of a lot of guys are a little bit interchangeable, I think in the next year.
>> Yeah, there's just not going to be a better tight end pickup the rest of the year. So if you're desperate for tight ends, like this is your last call. Like, your last chance actually having somebody to break out is Coulson Lovelin. Um, now going over to Jacksonville. Can never just be a normal season or week or month or anything for for Jacksonville.
>> Um, Brian Thomas gets rolled up on. It kind of reminded me like the CeeDee Lamb ankle sprain where, uh, gives it a go for a second. It's just obviously not going to be good enough. Probably going to be week-to-week. Hopefully he dodges IR, but you just never know. Uh, no Travis Etienne as well. So who steps up to the plate? It's Parker Washington. I saw a bunch of zone coverage wins. They threw him a screen pass, but the on-off splits even before this game, without Brian Thomas, without Travis Etienne, were real. So he's now up to a 28% target share without Travis Etienne on the field. So with Parker Washington, what have you seen from him over like the last year? And then like, do you think there's a chance he can be like a top 30 wide receiver, uh, assuming Brian Thomas is out for the next couple weeks?
>> I mean, I think first off, this offense is just going to suck.
>> Um, I, I mean, say what you want about Brian Thomas. He's not been a very good player this year, but he is a threatening player down the field. Um, he has value when he is out there. Infinitely more value when he's out there compared to Tim Patrick, who is going to be a guy that is now going to be running the Brian Thomas routes in this offense. Uh, doesn't threaten anybody. Uh, you know, at this point in time, without Etienne, without Thomas, uh, even without Strange potentially for another couple weeks, like Parker Washington is the default target earner in this offense, but I don't think he is the type of player that can lift an offense up in an efficient manner. He's more of that inferior goods player who kind of thrives while everything crashes around him. It's a little bit like a Wandale Robinson type player. He's, I think, a little bit more legit than Wandale, but I can see similar things where on a weekly basis, the Jaguars don't look good, but it's resulting in, you know, nine for 82 for Parker Washington, eight for 75 for Parker Washington. Um, so I think he is going to be a top 36 wide receiver rest of the season. I think that it's a big downgrade between the Etienne and Thomas injuries for everyone else in this offense. I will say Brenton Strange, uh, according to John Shipley, they think he has a chance to go next week. I would say likely to go two to three weeks from now. Um, and you know, we've seen how many times when the wide receivers get hurt, it's going to be Damiere Byrd and Tim Patrick on the outside. Those guys are not it. Um, you know, Brenton Strange is another guy who could just rack up a bunch of kind of cheap,
>> crappy targets for, for lack of a better word.
>> Yeah, you can drop Trevor Lawrence in redraft.
>> Absolutely. Yeah, I, I have the same exact takeaway. And this week, it's immediately going to be ugly. They're going into Houston for this week. So, you're going to be the team's going to be projected for 19 points, maybe even lower than that. And Parker Washington's going to have to win with volume. And I think that he is like a quality, like not reliable because he still drops the ball, but like who could he just sit down in zone coverage six yards down the field? That's kind of what Parker Washington's going to do. So, PPR scam type. I, I'll see if I sneak him into the top 30 wide receivers. Uh, but going up against the, the Texans, uh, cornerback duo is definitely no fun. Um, Alec Pierce, Indianapolis. So, uh, they finally lost. We had what, six turnovers and they still only lost by seven. So, it's like, kind of like everything went wrong, but you still almost, uh, came back and won that game. Alec Pierce just continues to to stand out to me on tape. And it's, it's not in the typical ways with Alec Pierce. Like, we see like super fast guy that gets two targets per game. That's what he's been up until this season and then this, this week, a bunch of out routes. I've seen him on some in routes as well. He plays the ball up in the air as well. So, he's a really good player to me. So, for, for fantasy purposes, what should we expect from from Alec Pierce? Can you tell us about like the Indianapolis Colts? Like,
>> when they get down, like they're going to be super pass-heavy, right? Because they're like pass to lead, but they're not leading and then all of a sudden just like pass the entire game. game. So, I think it's one of these offenses that might be like a little bit underrated with, uh, how many receptions are are available for the rest of the season.
>> Yeah, it was a really interesting game. I mean, I had a miserable Sunday morning watching it, but, uh, it was very interesting from an analysis perspective because we haven't seen them in a negative script the entire season. The only game that they had lost previous to this was the Rams game. That was the 80-7 game. Um, and they were leading in the second half for almost all of that game. So, we saw like one drive of them being down, chasing points in a major way. Um, in this one, it was really, it just was a snowball effect game where they start racking up these turnovers early, they start falling behind, they get an obvious passing situations and then they just keep turning the ball over. And I agree with everything you said. There's a perception of the Colts as a run-first team. They were a run-first team last year with Anthony Richardson. They were a run-first team the previous year with Gardner Minshew. They have not been that this year. Shane Steichen has always said going back to each of his spots, his philosophy of offensive football is throw to score, run to win. So you set up the run with the pass. Kind of an inversion of what, of what a lot of people think. When they've gotten run-heavy, it's generally been when they have leads in the second half. They also throw short a lot when they're able to hit those leak routes, um, or choice routes on first downs and they get into second and three, second and four, they run the ball a lot there. They're pretty neutral on first and 10 and they actually have one of the lowest pass rate or one of the lowest rush rates in the whole NFL on second and 10 because Steichen's pretty sharp and he doesn't like to force himself into third and long.
>> So when you have a game like last week where they're not having success on first and 10, they're never going to run on second and 10 and then they're behind by two scores in the second half. Yeah, they can balloon up to the 50 pass attempts, I think 56 dropbacks is what we saw this week and there's a lot of upside for that. An interesting thing, and it's just one week sample, so who knows, but Tyler Warren, um, had seven targets this week, which is fine in a vacuum, but that's just a 14% target share. Um, Pittman and Pierce tied for first at 13 and Downs at nine. I think a lot of what they do with Warren is very predicated on the integration of their run game. Um, Ryan Heath tweeted today, he has 60% of his targets come on play action. That is a ridiculously high rate. Um, and so much of how they've built off of him is they do the RPO stuff where they put his linebacker in conflict or they do the leak pass from play action. When they're just going 11 personnel, chuck, it's a lot of Pittman on deep crossers, Pierce on deep comebacks, J. Downs on choice routes. Um, that's kind of the stuff that they're doing. They're not really throwing to Warren a ton in those spots. So, something to note if they struggle, their second half schedule is way harder than their first half schedule. So, we might see these types of scripts again. Um, and yeah, the last thing I'll just say with Pierce, uh, he's just been like a really fun player development watch over the last while, um, was a guy who flashed, I thought, a little bit as a rookie, but limited.
>> Basically just didn't get to exist in the offense in the second year because they were casting him in this pure deep shot role. Gardner Minshew has no interest in doing any of that. Um, and they basically drafted Mitchell to replace him. And only by virtue of Mitchell being not that good, Pierce got a chance to hold on to this job and he's just developed in a massive way. He's become like a true NFL starting quality X-wide receiver. He wins on deep ends. He wins on comebacks. He of course wins down the field. He plays the ball in the air fantastically. Um, he's become an all-around dude. I think he's going to get like 18 to 20 million a year in free agency this year, whether that be from the Colts or someone else. And yeah, I would view him like I would try to view all three of these wide receivers maybe closer together. Pittman's ran really hot with touchdowns this year, but like in a going forward basis, I would look at Pittman as like, I don't know, somewhere in the 20 to 25 range. Pierce in like the 30 to 40 range and then Downs is really matchup and script dependent and he can kind of be up with those guys sometimes or or back in the 40 to 50 range.
>> Yeah, just all those were perfect notes here. I think the last game just highlighted all of that. And if, if the schedule does, you know, tighten up here or if just things kind of normalize and they're, uh, just an above-average team the rest of the way, that's still plenty good enough because, uh, Daniel Jones is still playing well. There's some big-time throws to Alec Pierce even in this one. Even with all those interceptions and fumbles,
>> and missed like a 65-yard bomb to him too. Could have been. Yep. Could have broken it open. So yeah, I think he's just an underrated player because he's viewed at viewed as this like low volume guy. But if the game script tilts in his favor and his route tree is opened up, that's just no longer going to be the case. So I think rest of season him being like the wide receiver 36 would not be a surprise to me whatsoever.
>> So, he's leading them in yards per game. He has 71 yards per game. If you pace that out over a full season, that's a 1,200-yard pace this year. He also led them in yards last year. Um, people just think he sucks, but he's good.
>> Yep. So definitely versus Parker Washington, we much prefer Alec Pierce over Parker Washington. Um, Christian Watson. We're getting like some reports now that's like more day-to-day for Matthew Stafford, uh, with his shoulder injury. We'll see if he plays this week. I think the bigger news for for Green Bay is obviously, uh, Tucker Kraft going to miss the rest of the season and, uh, that probably is going to linger into next year as well. Like, super unfortunate for the Packers. I think that makes the Packers offense a lot worse. There's a lot of like, you know, out-of-structure plays that go to him. There's a lot of big leak routes with tons of yards after the catch. He's awesome as a run blocker and in the red zone. So, I think it, like, it's an injury that does really matter for the Packers' rest of season outlook, I think. But for fantasy purposes,
>> that might force him into some more neutral game scripts where they're going to be forced to pass the ball a little bit more. Christian Watson, Matthew Stafford, just give us like the layout, uh, with Green Bay right now, uh, now that Tucker Kraft's not going to be involved.
So, they've been interspersing these guys a little bit, but I think the alignment they've gotten into most often has been Stafford in the slot when they're in 11 and Watson, um, and Doubs on the outside. And I think we'll see, but if I were Green Bay and I was looking at how to deal with this Tucker Kraft injury, he's just one of the few players in this whole league that can give you legitimate receiving value, um, at the tight end position, but also like just as good as any blocking specialist in the run game. It's like him and Kmet are really on an island of themselves and Ferguson, Goddard, maybe that next tier of that archetype. Um, they're not going to be able to have both anymore. They're either going to have to play John Fitzpatrick as kind of a pure blocker type or they're going to have to play Luke Musgrave as more of a pure receiving type.
>> So, I expect to see probably more 12 personnel from them. Um, if they want to try to simulate what they're getting out of Tucker Kraft, that could actually be kind of low-key bad for Matthew Stafford. Um, just because I don't know that they're going to be as viable of an 11 personnel offense anymore. Um, I think it's going to be great for Christian Watson. I also think with Watson now, he's a guy they used to use a lot on like jet sweeps and fly sweeps and stuff like that. They haven't gone to that much, fair enough. He's been coming off of a gruesome injury. Um, Reed is not coming back anytime soon. Kraft has been like a YAC player for them. They might just have no option but to do that. And lastly,
>> their run game is about to get a lot worse. Tucker Kraft is an essential part of their run game. Um, I don't know how much they're married to just running the ball kind of no matter what, but if they do struggle and they do have to pivot towards the pass, you know, we might see more games where they just have to say, "Screw it, line up with Musgrave at tight end and, uh, go in 11 personnel that way and air it out a little bit," because they're just going to lose a lot of that versatility. So, a lot of things I think are positive for Watson. Um, he also just looks really good, frankly, coming off this ACL injury. So,
>> good for. Yeah, I think Romeo Doubs gets the biggest boost just because he's just doesn't leave the field and he's been a player that's also just every single year getting a little bit better. So, I think kind of like Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs seems just like an underrated fantasy starter. He's at least a wide receiver three to me and I think there's a chance he can sneak into wide receiver two status. And then
>> Christian Watson versus Stafford, like let's say both are available because in some shallow leagues, both are. Uh, if you had to pick up one just over the next couple weeks here as both of these guys get a little bit healthier, uh, is there one that you'd prefer over the other?
>> I think I'd actually go Watson at this point. I mean, I've always been a Matthew Stafford hater. Um, but I tried to give him like a look as a rookie, you know? Um, but he's gotten, I mean, other than this recent injury, like he's gotten a pretty pure run out, um, this year, right? Christian Watson gone pretty much the whole year. Jayden Reed got injured immediately. Wix has been injured for most of this year, off and on, like he's gotten a lot of chances and and they haven't given him awesome usage and he hasn't turned in that breakout performance. Watson already, I think has looked like a, a more reliable explosive downfield player and I'm not sure how much use there's going to be on a slot with a Kraft-less offense. So I would take the shot on Watson and just hope for the big play.
Yeah, I think for Stafford, you're just like hoping that the yards after the catch stuff that they were getting out of Kraft, they say, "All right, Matthew Stafford, you're going to be our version of that now." Um, but we haven't seen that really played out all that much. They get him a couple manufactured touches like every week or so, but really has not like opened up like, "We have to jam this, uh, first-round wide receiver in." Um, yeah, another rookie here, Tory Horton. He, uh, pops in, was really, really good on tape to me. A lot of man coverage wins. That was with Cooper Kupp coming out of the bye, uh, with an injury, did not suit up. If you're the Seahawks, are you playing Tory Horton straight up over Cooper Kupp? And then secondly, the maybe the more important question is, will they actually do that? And is there a pathway for Horton to actually matter?
>> I mean, I'd have been doing that in week one. I, I Cooper Kupp is just not anywhere close to being an outside wide receiver. And you know, I was tweeting about it earlier. What Seattle's really done that's been fun is they've, they've been this heavy personnel offense where even though they don't actually run the ball that well, they're just able to consistently get teams to match them with base personnel and they throw out of 12. And if that's what you want to do, if you want to be a base personnel or a heavy personnel passing team, um, then you need to have speed on the outside. And look, Sam Darnold, um, has been awesome throwing downfield. It's just dot after dot after dot after dot. That's what he does best. Um, when he's throwing middle of the field, you know, making muddy reads, that's where you potentially see some of the fewer remaining flaws, but he's just been an absolute dot-fest going downfield. So, I would continue to do that. I would lean into it. I would use Horton and just lean into the identity of this team.
Yeah. And it makes so much sense. If Cooper Kupp returns from injury and he's just the slot receiver and he plays 30, 40% of the snaps, I feel like that's a fine enough role for him. And Tory Horton could has earned the number two status. So yeah, it wasn't like fluky production this last week. Like he was just lining up against man coverage and in different ways on different routes, just scoring touchdowns, out routes, uh, big corner routes, go balls. It's, it's a little bit of everything with Tory Horton, who I thought was used incorrectly in college coming off of an injury. More of like an underneath guy, but I thought that in his limited routes down the field, that's where he was at his best and we're starting to see that. Uh, one more rookie with Kahan Booty. He's week-to-week, I would say with the hamstring injury. Uh, Kyle Williams became not a full-time player. I think he was out there for like 68% of the snaps when Booty was not out there. Pop Douglas lights up the box score, but he was in a part-time role, just for like a one-week pickup here. Kyle Williams, Pop Douglas, any either one of those guys interest you?
>> Uh, I mean, not a ton. I just think the Patriots are going to continue to be a total spin the wheel offense.
>> Uh, I guess if I had to pick one, it would be Pop probably. It's been fascinating to watch how they've utilized him as like a downfield option. I think it's smart. He's good after the catch, he's athletic. He doesn't really have a feel for zone coverage. So, it's been weird, um, that they've kind of tight-cast him into this slot role.
>> I'd like it to be Kyle Williams. We just have not seen any chemistry between him and Drake May this season. Like, it's miscommunications. It's he's in the wrong spot. You know, he had got separation, but it's thrown elsewhere. They do throw it to him, he has no separation. It's just, it's just been it's just been tough. So, I don't understand really how as a team that is tied for first in the conference that you're going to go into next week and you're going to design a game plan around a rookie who hasn't shown himself to be reliable. Um, so I would probably be Pop, but these would be below all the other names we've discussed.
>> So, ranking the wide receivers for that we talked about, it would be Pierce, Washington, Watson, Stafford, Horton, and then the Patriots guys.
>> Man, I might put Horton above the Packers guys.
>> Okay. Yeah, fair enough. I think if, if Cooper Kupp is out for another week here, then I, I think that's, that's totally justifiable. Really,
>> I just don't think Kupp has given them anything. And and I think Horton, I mean, I think he was a really underrated prospect. Um, I, I was amped on them giving him an opportunity when they drafted him and and thought there was a path to the wide receiver two usage. Uh, I mean, and at some point, you'd think some team would come into a game and be like, "I don't care what else happens, but JSN's not going for 100 yards against us." Like, I guess that's unstoppable, but like, I just would think some team is eventually going to try and see what they can do. Um, and I think it would open up a lot of space for Horton. So, we'll see. But I, I like him a lot. I've seen a lot of fun stuff from him. I think he'd be three for me.
>> Okay. Um, two quarterbacks are going to be, uh, able to pick up. Joe Flacco is at like 50% available here. He's been the quarterback three since week six. Uh, he's just been lighting it up and it's just, I don't see this ending. I mean, obviously, you're not going to get into these crazy game scripts every single week. That's just the nature of the NFL, but the defense is horrific, and they might be trading a couple of those defensive players who aren't just showing up, quite frankly. So, it's Flacco versus Marcus Mariota. Uh, anything to distinguish between those two guys? Who do you feel more comfortable with? I'm assuming that Jaden Daniels is going to be out for the year just based off of, yeah, the record.
>> I mean, it's Joe Flacco for me. Um, this Washington team,
>> is just going into the, there's a circle in the drain at this point. Uh, I mean, to be honest,
>> we haven't even really seen anything close to last year's fantasy value from Jaden Daniels this year. Um, the one game that Marcus Mariota started, they got absolutely shelled by the Chiefs. So, I, I just don't know that it's a very functional offense. It looks like it's going to be a completely lost year for Terry McLaurin at this point. Um, he's probably not returning until after their bye and who knows how effective he's going to be after like 17 reaggravations of this quad injury. Um, Dotson is what he is. Zach is a million years old. They have no real running game and their defense just absolutely stinks. So they just have defenses leaning on them every single possession. Um, yeah, Mariota would be like in the mid QB2 range for me, I think. Um, and Flacco has proven to be like a legitimate top 10 guy.
>> Yeah, he is kind of in like the Dak Prescott conversation. I think the, the Bengals will be projected for 24ish points depending on, uh, home and road and the opponents, and they pass the ball like crazy.
>> Just take, just take whatever projection you would have had for Joe Burrow and just slide it in.
>> It's getting close to that point. It's getting certainly pretty close. By the way, on the Commanders, um, I don't think they'll do it, but Dotson Samuel would be somebody that they should absolutely trade away. U the season's over. They have not.
>> Yeah, the Bills could use like a 17th like slow dude to throw into the middle of field. Exactly. He's a big name. That's what GMs like to do on the, uh, the deadline day.
>> Uh, I joke about the Bills, but some team could probably use Dotson, so I agree.
>> Oh yeah, the running back position is pretty weak. Let's just be honest here. Um, Blake Corum was somebody I wanted to highlight here just because the Rams are so damn good. And
>> yeah,
>> Kyren Williams, he's a young guy. He's a, a smaller guy. He can pick up an injury at any point here. He gets the ball a ton. But this last week, coming out of the bye week, it was a, a legit drive-by-drive rotation. You're going to see the snap counts in favor of Kyren Williams. It was just one of those games where the Blake Corum drives went for three plays and the Kyren Williams drives went for 12 plays. But it was a legit, I get a drive, you get a drive rotation. During bye weeks, if you're like really, really hurting for flex spots, I think that a dart throw on Blake Corum is not even that crazy anymore. Uh, but I think he's one of the, the more proven handcuffs at this point, too. So, anything you've seen from Blake Corum this year?
>> Uh, yeah. I mean, I think he's looked quite good for the majority of the year. Um, he's never going to blow anyone away with his breakaway speed, but in terms of a guy who's going to make reliable decisions, a guy who's going to have nice agility in space, that's Blake Corum. They obviously like that profile. That's the Kyren Williams, um, profile as well. And we saw this week, you know, you mentioned the drive-by-drive rotation. We did see proof of concept. What if their drive is really long? The first drive of the second half, they did have, I don't know how many plays off the top of my head, but a lot of them. And Blake Corum stayed on the field the entire time. So, uh, they definitely will let him cook. They'll even let him potentially get, um, runs inside the 10 if the drive makes it that all the way there if he's playing well. So, we're going to see. I think, you know, the Rams are clearly going to be a playoff team. I think they are comfortable with Corum at this point in the circle of trust. They don't need to give Kyren 25 carries anymore. They want to keep him fresh for the playoffs. So, I agree and I think anytime you see the Rams as major favorites, Um, kind of similar to Tyler Allgeier, but even better, you can potentially play Corum. You're going to get 10 carries, you're going to probably get 50 yards in those plus spots, and then you're just hoping that you get a touchdown, and then it's a totally fine flex play.
>> Okay, going to one of the worst offenses, maybe the worst offense, the the Tennessee Titans. Ty Spears. I think this is more of like a play for just if tomorrow, if Derrick Henry trades away. I don't know who would be buying Derrick Henry at this point too. Like they'd have to take two to tango. You can't just trade him away. Maybe.
>> I mean, if they're, they lost Gibson, Rams dealing with, I suspect turf toe. Um, and it's like a rookie who I think played pretty well, but like they obviously haven't trusted a ton and then it's just like literally just dudes off the street. So like, I, I could totally get the Patriots trading for Derrick Henry.
>> Yeah. So, let's just kind of take this either way. So, uh, Ty Spears, is there any avenue he becomes fantasy relevant if Henry's on the team? And if Henry is off the team by tomorrow, then where could we rank Ty Spears? I mean, just noting that they're going to have like a team total of like 16 points every week.
>> Yeah, he's a, I mean, he's a total flex play already. Like, he's liable to outscore Derrick Henry in any game, maybe even favored because, um, he has more of the receiving profile. I also do wonder like if the Titans, like they're obviously trying to trade Derrick Henry and I suspect that they may, if they don't wind up getting what they're asking for with Henry, just sort of admit that like, "Okay, well, if you're trying to trade someone, you don't want to say, 'Actually, we hate this guy, we're going to make him our backup.'" But like, if once the trade deadline is passed, then what's really the point of just continuing to funnel touches to Derrick Henry? He hasn't played nearly as well as he played last year. Spears has had some moments where he's looked pretty electric. So, I think he would be my preferred Titans running back rest of season, especially because he's the pass-down guy and they lose by a ton every single week. So, I think he can have flex value regardless, but if they were to move Henry, then yeah, I would, I would probably
>> go as far as to put Spears like top 20. I mean, he's going to get every single touch if Henry left and he's going to catch four or five balls if he runs 70% of the route, 60% of the routes. So, yeah, you can, you can definitely have value with that. Okay, Giants backfield. This was, I think, pretty surprising. I think the consensus, and it's definitely where I was leaning, that Tyjae Spears would be in a 70-30 lead back role over Devin Singletary. And on the first drive, there was 10 plays, it was five and five. And by the end of the, the, uh, game, Singletary had the advantage on every single one of the red zone drives. Uh, like there's seven plays in the red area, it was all Devin Singletary over Tyjae Spears. So, I don't know if that was like small sample size noise or if there's something to that, but, uh, I think it's going to be one of these, like, if it's a 50-50-ish committee, it's going to be pretty hard to get either one of these guys. But do you think there's a chance that Devin Singletary, despite being the older guy, despite what Tyjae Spears did last year, is there any chance that like Devin Singletary is like just straight up the guy that we're going to be ranking ahead of Tyjae Spears, uh, down the stretch here?
>> I think there's definitely a chance of that. I think if that's the case, then ultimately they both just kind of suck as starts. Um, because you already have Dart running the ball a lot. I don't think that Dart's inclination is to check down that frequently. I think a lot of the scat back passing game usage was unique to him and his specific profile as a really strong pass catcher.
>> Yeah, those were like real routes. Like those were like real routes and choice routes.
>> They were scheming it up for him.
>> Yep.
>> They were scheming it up for him. So, I don't think that replicates itself with Singletary or Spears who don't really bring that same level of skills as road runners out of the backfield. Um, yeah, the hope was, I mean, even if Spears got the role that I thought he would get, I thought he was like a low-end RB2 compared to Scatback, who, you know, we were ranking as like a top 15 guy every week. Um, if it's going to be split, then it's going to be, I think, better than what we were talking about with the Titans, but like not by that much in terms of just two backs splitting a not very valuable backfield, and neither of them are very good.
>> Um, and so, yeah, I, I agree. The only way really that I think you're pumped to get either of these guys in your lineup rest of season, unless this rotation massively changes, is if one of them gets hurt. Um, and so it makes Singletary becomes a flex play now with this role. Um, and he would have, you know, pretty reasonable upside if Spears got hurt. But yeah, it's, uh, it's definitely, I think, a little bit bleak, um, for Tyjae Spears, who people thought they were landing on a potential bell cow winner and they are not.
>> Yeah, crazy. That was a crazy outcome there. Um, I don't think anyone really expected that one to to land that way.
>> I mean, they had the same two backs all last year, so there's no real reason for people to think it'd be different than it was, but clearly they soured on Spears to a pretty major extent.
>> Yep. Um, any of the other players just like going through your notes, uh, from this last game that deserve like a little shout out? Like, I want to mention like Brian Robinson, we haven't really seen him, but he was like trucking dudes into the end zone. Like that's just like a reminder CMC's backfield is just like very clearly going to be Brian Robinson. So that was like one person. I'm not sure if there's anybody else, uh, across the landscape.
>> Yeah, the only other guy that I'll mention quick is Dylan Samson. Uh, Quinshawn Judkins got hurt in the game before the bye. I think the expectation is that he will be okay. Um, but who knows for sure. Um, so worthwhile, I think, just adding him and then if you get the practice report that says, "Oh, Quinshawn Judkins back at practice on Wednesday," then you just hit drop and you go pick up any one of these other backups, um, that is available to you.
>> Yeah, Don Samson's like two for two, uh, in the, the two games that Quinshawn Judkins either missed entirely or left at halftime. So, uh, yeah,
>> good shout out at the end there. Uh, quickly on my drop list, these guys are like extremely obvious now that there's like some injuries here, but Jordan Love without Tucker Kraft, that takes a huge hit in my opinion. He's already like really not that fantasy relevant. Zach Ertz and Terry McLaurin, there's just no need to keep these two guys. Uh, with Marcus Mariota, Keon Coleman, enough already with that. I think that Don Kades like not fully broken out, but like he's taken the leap that Keon Coleman, like, could have had in that offense. Evan Engram's absolutely nothing. Chuba Hubbard, absolutely nothing. And Cooper Kupp, uh, were, uh, coming for his job with Tory Horton. So, those are like very obvious drop lists, but I think all those guys are above
>> 50% right now. So, uh, time to throw in the towel with all, all three of those or all seven of those.
>> Okay, with that, uh, we're going to get out of here. Stats versus film tomorrow. Uh, tons of write-ups from Jacob, uh, on Thinking about Thinking. Anything else you got for us as we kind of hit the midway point of the fantasy season?
>> Uh, yeah, I had my updated, um, column over at The Athletic last week. Um, obviously things have changed a little bit since, but it's pretty, um, evergreen at this point into the season, barring a couple injuries. Um, you'll get my stuff at Thinking about Thinking, of course, as always, and the usual podcasts, and we'll see you back here next week.
>> Before you go, wanted, uh, you're the biggest Brock Bowers guy. Know, rest of season, if you were drafting today, how high would you bet? I, when I was just kind of like going through the list, I had him at about seven, uh, overall right now. Um, where, where would you have him rest, rest of season?
>> Uh, Underdog scoring, I assume.
>> Yes.
>> Uh, man, that's a good call. I hadn't think, thought about it. Let me just think really quick. Um, so I would take the top four running backs for sure.
>> Um, and I would take Chase and Puka and JSN for sure. Uh,
>> probably, I think I would still take Lamb. Yeah, I'll, I'll say 9 to 11. I'm missing a guy or two. Yeah. I had it as Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Puka, Jamar Chase, Smith-Njigba, Bijan, and then it's Bowers, Rice, Lamb, Gibbs, Amon-Ra, Achane. That's kind of like the top 12 that's in the back, that's in the, in my mind here. So, yeah, he's, he's, he looks so good. Hey, really what you said a couple like weeks ago, them rushing him back just to delay him just derailed their entire season because I, piece of
>> Yes, everybody.
>> But it just, and, uh, yeah, like just the usage early on this season. Like,
>> looks good again. Like,
>> dude,
>> they're going to, they're going to be an average offense from here on out. Like, that's just how this is going to go. And it's so super frustrating. Oh, man,
>> it is infuriating. Like, they have played two games with him healthy. They beat the Patriots and then they were a two-point conversion away from beating the Jaguars, who are like, not great, but they're
>> currently both playoff teams, those two teams that they beat and, and basically tied. Um, and yeah, it's just, it's absolutely infuriating that they chose to completely harpoon their season by trying to get like a 62% version of Brock Bowers out there. And the most annoying thing is that it's so obvious that they knew how hurt he was the whole time. He had this week, 11% of his routes in line. 11%. He basically had the exact same deployment as Amon-Ra St. Brown if you just took three of his routes from being in line to out wide.
>> That is nothing like how they were deploying him when he was hurt. They weren't doing any of the shake routes. They weren't doing any of these motion routes that he was getting across the field.
>> It was nothing. All they were doing was like little dinky choice routes out of the backfield, treating him like he was Cole Kmet. So they knew he was completely hobbled and they threw him out there anyways for no reason. It's infuriating and they're all going to get fired and good.
>> Yeah, that's my take.
>> And and on top of that, the two rookies that they drafted, we got healthy scratch and best play single snap. So Tyler Lockett goes in there. So whatever dynasty shares of of these Raiders wide receivers, you can kiss these guys goodbye. Brock B is going to be living at 30% target share for the rest of our lives. So definitely want to hit you on that just because I knew you'd be fired up. But
>> I am fired up. That's a good point. With that, uh, stats versus film tomorrow. We'll be breaking down that with Josh and all the other 31 teams. We'll see you next, uh, next week.