Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you have your buddy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, November 21, 2025, facing a red crypto market, I want to say. Well, for now, it's stinging hard. The stock market is also stinging a bit, but a little less than us, though. Afterwards, there has been news all day. I sent you yesterday, today, a lot of analyses showing whether we are going to hell, whether this is the beginning of hell, whether it's straight to 50,000, or whether, in the end, a small bottom can form. We have quite interesting things like the buyer-seller ratio turning green again. The last time it turned green, well, it was doing great when we had the correction with Donald Trump's tariffs. So, a bottom can be in a week, two weeks, you see, but well, at some point, we'll have to go. The quantum Bitcoin model, which isn't doing too badly, tells you, well, if we go into a bear market, we have lows of $52,000. If we go there right now, $57,000. If we go there in 3 months, $62,000. In 6 months, $68,000. In 9 months, well yes, the longer it lasts, the more the market has a chance to stop a bit high. There are quite a few nice indicators here. The market's real average value, which Glassnode shares with us, is around $81,900, which is quite defended, the $82,000. There's also here, it comes from CoinGlass, which tells us there's not much liquidity left below. Then, there are quite a few analyses here on the MACD, the RSI, which show we are in capitulation and oversold levels that we rarely saw. The last time we saw this was during really big bear markets. You see it here, the realized losses on Bitcoin are at the same level as FTX. We haven't had as much capitulation and losses as since FTX. We've had a few each time we found roughly the good bottoms. But here, we are at big, big, big levels. Happy Blackrock continues to send hundreds of millions of dollars to sell. It's not very, very pretty. We also have net Bitcoin losses of nearly 3 billion. And the last time we had such giant net losses, well, those were small bottoms. So I'm not saying the bottom is here. I'm sharing things to show you that in this atrocity we are currently experiencing, well, there is still news telling us, "Well, at some point, we will find a small bottom there." No, perhaps because we are at atrocious levels of atrocity that we haven't seen for a very, very long time, you see. Well, the market is still, of course, in extreme fear. Well, afterwards, we can ask ourselves what happens if we break zero? Will we go into negative territory? I will show you a small image in the coming days. Also atrocious at the ETF level, $903 million of Bitcoin sold by US ETF clients yesterday, with Blackrock continuing to sell. It's not pretty. So when ETFs are buyers, we are here. Yeah! So happy. When they start selling, it stings, it stings, it stings. Well, Ethereum ETFs also sold $261 million. They continue to sell, it's not good for altcoins. That's it, boom. Remember, it's been quite some time that I've been showing you this little graduation here to show you how much percentage of decline was left to reach the bottom of the wick. We finally reached the bottom of the wick. So you see, don't underestimate technical analysis. On October 10th, that Friday evening, we were live, it was a complete carnage, we were watching it, and well, after the wick, there were really very high probabilities of going to retest it. It's very often like that. The bigger the wicks, the higher the probabilities of retesting increase. I bet my hat on Friday, October 10th, that it would retest the wick. Luckily it returned, I had to put it in hot water. My hat is frayed, you see. Well, so we went to test the wick. It's not surprising at all, and I want to say, well, the structure is finished. From there, finished. Can it fall lower? Yes, but from there, the structure is validated. That's the advantage, you see. So, can it fall more and more and more? Yes, it can fall more. But in any case, from now on, we can say, okay, it's good, the bottom of the wick is validated, it's filled. Well, it can start again now. All that's left is to tighten the shorts even more, so much so that we tighten the shorts, we are all red. Yeah, clearly, I am red, you don't see me, but I am red, red, red, because I've been tightening the shorts for quite some time. One thing I don't like too much is breaking the lower Bollinger band, which we now have around $58.8 billion. I don't like that too much because the breaks continue to knit and purl this lower Bollinger band, which means it will continue to fall, candles boom boom boom. So, do the candles tell us, yes, it's okay, don't worry, there's a bottom? No, for now, the candle doesn't say that at all. It even says, the candle, I might go a bit lower. Well, is it serious? No, it's not serious because we are returning to the oversold zone here for altcoins, for all altcoins. The last time we were in the oversold zone was in June 2025, then in April 2025, where a bottom was found, the correction of Trump's tariffs. Well, so it's quite rare to return to the oversold zone. In any case, oversold zones are good zones for DCA. Afterwards, be careful, when I talk about DCA, I'm only talking about Bitcoin and altcoins. Well, but in any case, these are good, good zones for DCA or for big, big altcoin purchases if you want. Well, so these are rather interesting zones. Now we see that the price is collapsing, but we see that here the momentum of the bears is decreasing a little, so we have small divergences that continue on the MACD. It's rather interesting. So our beloved Bitcoin also took a big hit. Well, it's not very, very pretty. So, in green here, it's the long re-accumulation zone. This is where, theoretically, the bulls should get a little excited and buy. You see, I'll reduce it. Well, so the re-accumulation zone, we've broken through it. Well, I'll remove it, we'll see more clearly. Well, now the level we're keeping, in fact, there are two levels we're keeping. The first is the 382 of Fibonacci at $84,000. These are the levels that should be held well. And the second level, well, it's the low of wave A of this big wave, around $74,500. In short, if we start breaking the 382 of Fibo here at $84,000, it won't look good at all, you see? Because every time the 382 of Fibo has been maintained in all corrections, the market has recovered. It has always been like that. I've sent you this analysis several times on social media, whether it's Telegram, Discord, or Twitter, check the description. Well, now, if we start breaking the Fibo levels, it doesn't look good. So, breaking, it's not just a small candle, it's a weekly one, especially. Okay? So, if we close this week below $78,000 on Sunday, well, that stinks, it stinks a lot. Well, and in short, the only thing that can save us is the structure. This running flat. As I've told you too often for months, wave A here up to 74,000, wave B which went up to 126,000, it's wave C which tells us that as long as I don't break 74,500, I can validate this running flat with an A, a B, a C, and boom, explosion. So, in short, personally, after each analyst decides what to use to analyze, I have three big things, you see, that I like because I know they work well: the 50-week moving average, which was around $103,000, that's the first thing. The 382 of Fibo at $83,000, and the structure. For me, those are the three alarms. The 50-week moving average has been broken. That's a first alarm that rings red. Attention, it stinks, it stinks. Bear market. Well, if on Sunday we break $84,000, a second alarm will light up in "Ah, it's doubling more, it's doubling more, bear market." And if we break $74,000, well, that's it, it's the last alarm that for me says, "Yes, it's good, welcome to a bear market." Why? Because breaking $74,000 means the structure is starting a new corrective structure. A new one. That's no longer the running one. This running ABC, we throw it in the trash. Adios amigos. And we're starting a new big A, big B, big C. So a new big corrective structure, and that will be the bear market because it will last for months and months and months, or many months, you see, that's the idea. So, for me, one alarm has gone off. Has the 382 Fibo alarm gone off? No, I'm waiting for a weekly close, so from Sunday evening below. Then it stinks. And I'd say rather two closes, because sometimes it just closes below with a red candle, and then the following week, boom, it recovers. It's a fakeout. However, if you have two candle closes below, well, that's it. Anyway, and the $14,000 level will be the last level before talking about the moving average, quite simply. So, they are being defended a bit, these $84,000, but it's tough, tough. Another interesting thing that I've shown you for several days is that well, Bitcoin is oversold, so it's really oversold, rarely seen. The last time we saw such oversold levels for Bitcoin, hold on tight, it was in August 2023, you see, it was 2 years ago that Bitcoin was so oversold. So, if you take the levels where Bitcoin was really, people were like, "Ah, I'm scared, I'm selling everything, it's over." Well, it was at that moment, it's today, this day, then in February 2025, then in summer 2024, and then in summer 2023. So, summer 2023, summer 2024, February 2025, and December 2025. So, it's not often, it's once or twice a year that Bitcoin is so oversold. These are rare levels, and at some point, you regret it, you see, because when it finds a bottom or recovers, you say, "Ah, if only I had known," because "if only I had known" in Bitcoin, well, we say that often. Well, so for now, it's scary, for now it's falling, for now all the indicators are making us sweat between our legs, all the shorts are pulled tight, tight, tight, we put a lot of cream, we put diapers, but at some point, well, it will pass. So that's what I'm expecting in terms of liquidity as well. I shared that with you today. Well, to the south, there's not much left. There's not much left down to $72,000. Will Bitcoin go directly to $72,000 like that? There's nothing to eat. Everything that was eaten is to the north. So, maybe we have to go there. Well, regarding Ethereum now. So, Ethereum, that's it, the gap at $2853 has been taken. Bravo. It's gone. Finally, this gap has been filled. So, we are rather happy. I'll remove it. Well, so now, Ethereum. Well, unfortunately, it continues to correct. Ethereum, similarly, we hadn't seen oversold levels like this since April 2025, because we had found the bottom in 2025. Well, afterwards, I'm not saying the bottom is now, but at some point, you have to make a bottom, you see. It can last a few more days of suffering, but at some point, you'll have to make a bottom. And so, after April 2025, it was in August 2024. August is the story of the interest rate hikes on the yen that hit the whole market hard. Well, so to tell you, it's once or twice a year that Ethereum also comes into such an agitated oversold zone. Remember your beloved Foufi, when we were there, I told you, be careful, technical analysis shows a bearish divergence in the overbought zone, these are the worst divergences. Ethereum was at $4950, and remember some people were like, "Foufi, stop, it's not true, Ethereum, nonsense, you're saying that because you don't like it" [laughter]. But it's the same song every time. It's actually funny because buying is easy, buying, accumulating is easy. The hardest part is selling, okay? So, the best thing is not to try to get the best entry point. Yes, I bought cheap, I'm so happy. What matters most is when you will sell, even a little bit, when you will take profits. And that's hard because when the market is all green, it's booming, it's exploding, everything is great, Ethereum $4950 towards $10,000, it's too great. And your Foufi tells you, no, no, it's over now. The weekly bearish divergence in the overbought zone, you have to divest yourself of some Ethereum. It stinks too much, you see. And when everything is green, everything is exploding, and everyone is saying "altcoins, let's go," well, nobody sells, and then they cry when it comes back to $2000, $2700. You see, technical analysis clearly indicated, there is no excuse for those who were in profit, of course, for Ethereum and for Bitcoin. There is zero excuse because technical analysis said for weeks, wait, it stinks. Well, I had made a bag, but those who didn't listen, well, it's a lesson, but it's a shame because lessons are expensive in crypto. Well, anyway, so your beloved Foufi told you that, but here I tell you the opposite. It's starting to look good here. We don't have a big bullish divergence yet, because there was a divergence a few days ago, but it continued to fall. The RSI also. So the divergence has been canceled, the divergence on the RSI. So, it's not great, but what's good is that we are still in a very extreme oversold zone. There is still a divergence on the MACD that is not bad, and in terms of liquidity here, there's not much to the south. So, will they really go in the direction of Ethereum? I'd have a little trouble seeing it. Well, last one, Solana, that's it, Solana has taken its gap. There are no more gaps on Solana. Bravo! So, the gap, I'll send it. So, to tell you that even on the options, they are afraid, they took a hit, capitulation everywhere. I sent you analyses, whether it was yesterday, today, on Telegram or elsewhere. Yesterday too, I sent you a lot of analyses to give you a little, I don't want to say hope, but the truth is that we are at extreme capitulation levels, and at some point, that creates a bottom. And even on the options, even professionals are capitulating. And here, you see why I'm telling you this? Because on the spot here, Solana is around $121. Okay? The spot is where we are, it's the perpetual, you see, it's 24 hours a day. But on the options, look at the CME. The CME Solana has a wick at $108. There, the $108, you see. Ah yes, you felt it. Well, we didn't feel it. We're not on the CME, but well, $108. So, it's no surprise that the gap at $121 was taken, and we, well, we didn't go for the $121 on the spot, but still, the gap was taken, it was taken on the futures contracts. Well, so, that's it. So, Solana, okay, very good. There were also big bullish divergences. Now, the divergences are still relevant with the RSI still slightly rising, the MACDI too, the gap closed. So, for now, it's good. That's it, we've closed the gap on Bitcoin, on Ethereum, on Solana. Everyone is capitulating, everyone is saying we're all going to die, welcome to bear market, and it's over. Topipo. Well, we're starting to see everything needed to start again. No, I believe at some point, we'll have to go. Well, and of course, there's nothing left to eat to the south either. So, well, XRP, it's taking a bit more of a hit because it was late compared to the others. Okay, as I told you, the others went well down to their gaps. XRP, no, XRP is a bit late, so that's why it accelerated its decline a bit. So, it's not surprising at all. What's not very good is breaking the lower Bollinger band, which continues. So, the Bollinger band could widen further. Candles sliding on it. So, is it that today, that's it, we have signs that today it's over? No, no, not at all. It could even continue tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and early next week. Okay. So, I'm not saying a sudden drop, but it could go up a bit, then down a bit. Well, nothing tells us for now on the candles that the bottom is here. But there are a lot of on-chain analysis things that tell us that at some point it will create its small bottom. And I think it still needs a few days. I wouldn't bet my hat saying the bottom is today because breaking the lower Bollinger band here for XRP, Solana isn't doing that, but Ethereum is, and Bitcoin is too. It's not very good. I don't like that today everyone has broken their Bollinger band. That's not very, very pretty to cancel the toboggan effect that is currently happening, for example, for Bitcoin, and which could continue. We would need one or two green candles, you see, to get back into the Bollinger bands, and then it could be good, but for now, it's not good. For now, today, it continues to break the lower band for the majority, so the lower band could continue to fall. Let's hope it doesn't break $14,000, otherwise it will hurt a lot. You see, and then, it has no more gaps and there's nothing left to eat to the south, so at some point, it will have to go up. Well, regarding the stock market now. So, today, well, the stock market isn't that bad. We can see futures are in the green. NVIDIA -0.68%, Apple +0.55%. You see, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are slightly in the green. S&P 500 0.718%, Nasdaq 0.20%. Why is the stock market, let's say, slightly in the green today? Because the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, you see, they are a bit in the green. Why? Well, in short, here, I've put this little news that came out not long ago, I grabbed it before making the video. It's the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, named John Williams, who said today that he was rather in favor of a rate cut by the end of the year. Knowing that he always has his voting seat. He's always there, you see. He's a permanent member. And so, what happened? Well, John spoke, and John, super John. And so the probabilities of a rate cut for December went from 30% to 75% today. Boom, you see? So, good news. What is the market missing for it to push? Money. It needs money. Money can come from various places, you see, from the sky, from the earth, from the ground, whatever you want. Well, and so, the fact of lowering rates, well, that's already a small indirect injection. It's not the big faucet of the Fed opening up like that, pouring out, it's not that one. In any case, it's not bad. And so, the fact that we see the probability that traders and investors think there's a 3/4 probability of a rate cut for December. Well, that's good news. So, you see the S&P 500, well, it's a bit green. The Nasdaq too. On the other hand, I'll tell you clearly, I don't like the break we had yesterday of this low, you see. Well, so that's not good. It's not very good, breaking this low. So, we'll watch that because it doesn't smell like a big rose. The entire stock market is taking a hit. China, these are the benchmark indices. China, boom. Hong Kong, boom. Japan, boom. Tech Europe, boom. The Rostock 600, boom. The Dow Jones, it's not good, it's not good. The gold is rather happy, it's pushing quietly. The barrel is less happy. We have all the crypto stocks, they are looking for oil. MicroStrategy at $175. Ah, it's not MicroStrategy at $460. And I also shared a news item with you today showing that the director of MicroStrategy, what's his name again, I shared that on all social networks, who sold for $1 million today. Here it is, look, it's the Executive Vice President of Strategy, named Shao Wengming, who sold 5200 MicroStrategy shares at $202 for $1 million. No, it's not funny. Well, so it's at the bottom of hell, and he's selling. Maybe he's selling to buy some Bitcoin, but well, he's selling for himself. They are his shares, I think. The US 10-year is going up again a bit. So, buying a bit of Treasury bonds today, but you see that it's been sold a bit because at the beginning they were buying Treasury bonds because we had low rates, but as soon as John Williams, the governor of the Fed of New York, said, "I see a rate cut for the end of the year," well, immediately it started to be sold a bit. Well, who is rather happy is the dollar, which has regained its 200-day moving average. Well, that's not very good. We were talking about it, a dollar regaining such a strong moving average is not very, very bullish. It should lose it again. But if the dollar takes a hit from rate cuts, take that in your face, well, then it will fall. It will fall a bit because it doesn't like rate cuts, of course, it's monetary devaluation, and in that case, it could help our little crypto markets and also the stock market. Well, friends, for this little update video today, I hope you enjoyed it. We'll see you tomorrow. This weekend, we'll do the long-term analysis, as we do every weekend, to see if it stinks or if it doesn't stink too much, the long-term analysis. I'm sending you kisses, be strong, gatz friends. As the Japanese say, I need to call, I need to learn to say courage in other languages. I'll check on Google Translate. I'm sending you kisses and we'll see you soon. Bye bye.