Transcription
Do you think potentially we could see higher levels in the next few months? Could we go to make new highs? For me, this is typical bearish action. Bear in mind that during bear markets, volatility goes crazy, so the biggest rallies and drops occur during bear markets. I need to see a break above a significant price level to see, okay, now the trend shifted bullish. But right now, the chart is bearish. You're saying as long as we stay below that resistance, we have to be more cautious. There's still more risk ahead. This is like a rubber band that is so stretched now that I wouldn't be surprised to see the rubber band reverting. How much lower in this correction? How much lower could we drop, do you think? On the MicroStrategy chart, it can be a vicious circle because if Bitcoin drops farther, then MicroStrategy is going to drop even more. It can be really what goes up goes down. I hope this is not going to happen.
What's your preferred target for Bitcoin as the highest target that it might reach this year? All guys, hello and welcome. Joined here today by my good friend and trader, Manuel BL at DowTheory.com. In this video, we're going to talk about Bitcoin. Specifically, in a recent video I published, we talked about the stock market potential impact with the Dow Theory warning signal that occurred. But in this video, I want to ask Manuel BL's views and indeed forecast for Bitcoin. Does Manuel think we could see higher levels in the next several months, or does he think there could be more risk ahead in the next few weeks on Bitcoin and crypto? All right, guys, should be kind of interesting. Join us. Okay, welcome back, Manuel. Thank you very much indeed for joining me in this video, and thanks to you for having me on your YouTube channel. Thank you very much. Yeah, pleasure. Thanks again. By the way, by the way, Emanuel told me he watches my videos. I appreciate that. Thanks a lot. Religiously. I religiously, of course, read Manuel BL's newsletter. Guys, do check it out. Special offer and discount only for you guys in the description. There's the link; check it out. You get both the Dow Theory newsletter for the stock market and also the crypto report he publishes as well. Manuel BL is the new editor of DowTheory.com, which, according to the Wall Street Journal, is one of the top market timing newsletters out there.
Manuel, what do you think about the situation with Bitcoin? I mean, we saw both Bitcoin and Ethereum as well; both of them dropped. Bitcoin dropped initially in the month of January, then had a rebound. We called the drop in Bitcoin down to 90k. In fact, I was talking with Charlie Burton recently, and both of us were calling for 87k and even the low 80s. So yeah, funny enough, I'm looking at the low 80,000 myself. Really, if it can pull back down to that, I think that's a some good levels down there for different reasons. I've got some trend lines and stuff down in the low 80s based on the weekly time frames. Yeah, interesting you mentioned the low 80s because that's not far away from the daily 200—that's the green line there in my chart—which is slowly catching up with the 82k support there. So yeah, you could be absolutely right; it could go into the low 80s. Bitcoin managed to drop down eventually to the low 80s, the low 80k level, and even to 78k. Had a nice bounce. Do you think Bitcoin has bottomed here at the lows it made in February or March? Do you think potentially we could see higher levels for example the next few months? Could we go to make new highs? What are your expectations for Bitcoin overall? It is a question of timeframe, so the short—let's talk about the short term and the longer term.
Good point. Yeah, let's start first maybe with a big picture. The big picture is I consider Bitcoin hard money. This is true; many people say it has no value. No, no, no, nothing has a value but has utility, and so it has value because it is hard money. So I believe Bitcoin can go really very high in the long run, but of course it's not going to be a straight line. So I think that now Bitcoin is suffering from—I suspect that Bitcoin already absorbed lots of good news. So Trump is pro-crypto, the strategical crypto reserve, and of course all these things were absorbed, discounted by the markets. But I think that the influx of good news now is not enough to move further up Bitcoin because everything has been discounted. Look, for instance, a couple of days ago, I think it was March 4th, that Donald Trump again, again said, "We're going to have Solana, Bitcoin, blah, blah, blah, you name it." Yeah, then it was a dead-cat bounce; it popped up, yes, but then immediately went down. Yeah, for me this is typical bearish action. Bear in mind that during bear markets volatility goes crazy, so the biggest rallies and drops occur during bear markets. During bear markets and bull markets, you have a more orderly way of moving prices. Okay, it goes up, down, up, down, but with less volatility. But now we are seeing insane volatility in Bitcoin, which, for me, it is very, very bearish action.
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You mentioned the specific resistance price level. I think that's near, I think that's near 100k, just near 99,500 or 100k. There's a resistance there. I think Bitcoin would have to break that for me to be convinced that a bottom has been made. I think we would have to see a sustained break above 100k, approximately the psychological resistance there. I think if Bitcoin breaks, if Bitcoin can break that, then we can say there's a potential bottom. But you're saying as long as we stay below, you're saying as long as we stay below that resistance, there is still room for caution. We have to be more cautious; there's still more risk ahead of potential further declines. Yes, and far more if you look at other charts because I'm really a fan of the principle of confirmation. So confirmation gives you lots of clues whether it's a false move, a fake-out, or is the thing is real. Look at Block, Block is an ETF that invests in companies that benefit from blockchain technology, so Block is really something. There are many real companies there, and the chart is bearish. If you look at Mara or the miners, all the, all the charts of all the miners, they are incredibly bearish charts. They are so bearish that maybe I get bullish because it hints at capitulation because they are extremely bearish. But of course, sorry. You're saying the charts or the sentiment is bearish, both, what more the charts than sentiment, which is also bearish. When you say the charts are bearish, let me understand you correctly. Are you saying it's indicating that we could lead to further declines, further drops, or are you saying that it's a contrary indicator that means price can go up, positive? Which one is it? I'm kind of confused. Followers suggest further downward price action, but it is so bearish that I wouldn't be surprised to see a dead-cat bounce. So, right now, it's like the rubber band I explained in other videos in the past. This is like a rubber band that is so stretched now that I wouldn't be surprised to see the rubber band reverting. Uh-huh. A little bit, but of course, makes sense. Makes sense. Know the future. I give the benefit of the doubt; the trend is bearish, and all miners, Block, everything that relates to the crypto space is bearish now. I see, I see what you're saying. You see more risk, more probability of further declines.
I would say that's a good point. I think if Bitcoin were to drop down, if Bitcoin were to drop down below the lows that were made in February, especially if it drops down below, let's say 80, I think if Bitcoin were to drop below this supporting trend line, which I'll put for people to see, there's a trend line there. If Bitcoin were to break that and drop below it, it could potentially, and even if it, even if Bitcoin were to drop below the lows that were made in February, the recent lows, it could potentially lead to increasing risk of a further decline down. How much lower in this correction? How much lower could we drop, do you think? If support gets broken, that is 65k, so that, oh, below 70k, yes, I think so. And furthermore, you have to keep an eye on the MicroStrategy chart. It can be a vicious circle, so a loop, a negative loop, because if Bitcoin drops farther, then MicroStrategy is going to drop even more. Oh yeah, some BS. And so this is why caution, caution here; caution is important. M was a factor in driving Bitcoin price up because they were gobbling up all the Bitcoins. But if Bitcoin price drops and then drops to a level where MicroStrategy is also forced to sell because they have some convertible bonds, and then, then it can be really what went up goes down. I hope this is not going to happen, but we should also keep an eye also on the chart of MicroStrategy, MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor. Yeah, I talk about that in my crypto report, and there are some key prices we have to look at at the MicroStrategy chart. Yeah, that's a very good point. I got two questions for you before I finish this video, and it's quite simple. Firstly, am I correct in saying that you believe that this drop in Bitcoin so far is a temporary correction before we go higher to new highs in the next several months? Is that correct? Okay. And if that's correct, so if you believe it's a temporary correction, even if we drop, even if we drop lower, I mean, you said below 70k, even 65k potentially. I mean, for me, for me, 74 to 70k is much more important, but you say 65k, that's fine, that's interesting as well. It's very interesting. So okay, let's say it's a temp, let's say it's a temporary correction. If we indeed we go higher to make new highs, let's say in the next several months, by the summer of this year, which is what, what I think, what you're expecting essentially, what's your ideal? Some months going to take, let's say second half, what is going to be maybe bad for this stock market? I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin decoupling from the stock market. Interesting decoupling. Okay, let me ask you this: so what's your overall, what's your target for Bitcoin as the highest target that it might reach this year? I had a chat with this with Charlie Burton about the prospect of 200k. There are some Bitcoin analysts that were saying 250, 270k, and we strongly disagreed. We said, "No, we don't think it's likely," but we could be wrong. But what, what do you think? What's the, what's your preferred upper target in the next, again, not now, I'm talking about later this year, in the second half, by the summer of this year, how much higher, how much higher could we go once the, once the correction ends, it completes?
I think at most 110, 120, but I will be able to be, I will be able to make a better forecast once we have the lows and we know that we are in a secondary reaction in Bitcoin because then I can use the seven, and yes, very accurate targets. But of course, now it's falling, so while it falls, I cannot make the projections to calculate. But very early though, very early, I will be able to give an accurate projection of price targets, but while it's falling like a knife, I don't have the basis to calculate targets. So now it's more gut, and you know that I'm not a friend of gut; I'm more, I'm very quantitative. But I think I don't expect more than 110 now. Once we get a bottom, and I think we can get the bottom in two, three months, something like that, and we get the first rally, then I can make projections, and you know they are pretty, very accurate, you know, and let's see what happens then. Yeah, that's very interesting. So I'm the same way as you; I look at where the lows are, I wait for the lows, and then I calculate with Elliot wave and Fibonacci extensions, of course as well, to work out where the potential targets are. So yes, you're right. So overall, what you're saying is that you don't, you don't think this correction, you don't think this correction on Bitcoin has ended just yet. You don't think it's bottom, bottom just yet. As long as we stay below 100k, you don't think there's a bottom just yet, so you see a lot, you see still more risks of a potential lower low, lower lows into lower regions in the next few weeks. And yes, okay, yes. And keep an eye on MicroStrategy. When you say keep an eye on it, you mean look at the chart of it, to the bonds, because if, if I think it's more or less 40,000, I know it's very, but can you imagine that some Bitcoin, I don't know, there is a big drop, and then this can exacerbate the drop because the MicroStrategy is in a big problem. So I think it's not going to happen, but let's keep an eye on MicroStrategy's chart, and the chart is horrible, by the way, much, much worse than Bitcoin's chart. Oh, really? I shared the slide with you, and it looks horrible, horrible. Okay, interesting. I'll put the chart so people can see as well. So guys, do check out Manuel BL's excellent newsletter. I read it enthusiastically and religiously every month. I think you cover brief, there is a crypto, there is a crypto letter, so there is a specific letter for crypto as well. So does that, is that, is that included in the offer as well, Manuel? The both the crypto and you, both great, fantastic. So guys, check it out. The link's in the description. Go to that link, and it's a special offer, special discount that Manuel BL is giving you for his DowTheory.com newsletter. Check it out while the discount lasts, and again, don't miss out; the link is right there for you again in the description, and go on that link, subscribe, and thank you very much, Manuel. Really appreciate it. Thanks very much indeed. Cheers, guys. You, thank you.