Transcription
Hello everybody and welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodity markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics, all with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector.
Today is December 1st, 2025, and I'm thrilled to welcome John Fenwick to the program, the founder and CEO of Fenwick Consulting and the organizer of two investor events coming up May 17th to 19th in Washington D.C. and May 20th to 22nd in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Stick around to the end of the interview for details.
Silver keeps on soaring, with the metal showing incredible strength and defying expectations on its way past $58 an ounce. With silver ripping, which mining stocks stand to benefit from these elevated prices? John provides his top picks in both the silver and gold mining space and his thesis for why they could skyrocket as this precious metals bull market rages on. All of this and so much more ahead. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with John Fenwick.
John Fenwick, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. It is, of course, an amazing time to be an investor and stacker in the silver space, with the metal recently hitting new all-time highs, currently trading at around $58 an ounce. You've spoken many times on this show that silver was your biggest position, and it seems like your conviction certainly has paid off. Do you think it's time to play it safe and take profits at these levels, at least in the short term, or is there more room to run in this silver bull market in your view?
Yeah, thanks, Jesse. So, in full disclosure, you know, we own a lot of the things we're going to talk about today. Um, silver is obviously one of them. I've been talking about this theme on your show since you and I met a few years ago. Um, it is a 12% position roughly for us as of September 30th. I have not sold a single dollar, though. Um, I'm just riding this higher because, as we've said on your show twice before, the $50 target price that is in everyone's mind is not real, in that it's not inflation-adjusted, right? So, inflation-adjusted $50 is more like $68 to $70 bucks over in today's market. So, at $58, I'm thrilled, but I'm not selling yet because I, I don't think we're going to get resistance until the 60s. Um, and, and maybe you, you know, who knows, right? Because the supply of silver is much, uh, in shorter supply than the average person out there understands. Um, so my, my advice is, watch the tape, investors, or work with a professional like myself that is looking at this literally every hour. Um, because if you can't watch a screen because of your profession or what have you, you need to work with a professional. Um, but look, this means great things for silver equities, which I'm sure we'll jump into as well. And we're overweight in that area, too.
So, my, my thinking is, Jesse, if we had this interview say a month ago, right? Uh, I would say beware of December 10th because the Fed looming, um, was much more of a risk, being that we were between 40 and 50% sure we'd get a cut. Now, that number is over 80% sure that we're going to get a 25 bip cut. So, that really alleviates, uh, some stress for me. Um, additionally, December 16th is going to be huge, I think, uh, or potentially could be huge, in that, um, the U.S. government has pushed back the, the non-farm payroll reads from this Friday, December 5th, all the way to the 16th. Um, so the 16th is not going to have one set of data. It's two months of data for non-farm payrolls. And if you get some weak reads in there, which I think you will, uh, because of Amazon's layoffs, UPS's layoffs, etc., they're all going to be factored into that day. Um, I, I think that's, you know, more fuel for silver and gold going into next year.
Well, let's dive into the silver mining sector. The SIL ETF up around 130% last time I checked, it might be more at this point. SILJ nearly 150% year to date. Last time I had you on the show a couple months ago, you said we were around the third inning of a bull cycle in precious metals equities. Have we hit the fourth inning yet at this point? And, and what are your overall thoughts on how silver miners specifically are positioned right now?
Yeah, we're in the fourth inning, maybe even the fifth inning in certain names, right? I mean, some of this stuff is exponentially going up. Um, however, when you look at the ETFs you just named, they've been pretty steady. We're not seeing the tremendous leverage that say a GDX has had to the price of gold recently. GDX being the large-cap gold ETF. SIL would be the component in silver that would be similar to GDX, right? And then SILJ would be similar to GDXJ on the VanEck gold side. So, you know, those four ETFs were, we're up 25% plus in our portfolio in those four ETFs. I mean, that's our core, right? We're, we're building positions around core holdings like that because we don't want to get too cute and buy all these explorers and developers, some of which are not going to work. Um, and, and not have producer exposure. So, the names in those ETFs are producing gold or silver, um, which is huge right now because you're producing at much higher prices. Uh, so, yeah, I think, I think whether it's the fourth or fifth inning, it doesn't really matter. There's still room here because we're probably, you know, approaching maybe a halfway mark, uh, somewhere here into this year, you know, this month, December, that is, or in Q1.
Um, so, so, uh, you, you've interviewed my partner, Don D'Errett, and I quite a bit. Um, Don believes that we're, you know, in a multi-year kind of rally. I don't. I, I think maybe it's a two to three-year move from here. I don't think it's a 10-year move, a commodity supercycle yet. I don't see evidence of that yet. Um, I want to see the broad market turn over before I'm in that camp. Right. And things just keep melting higher. Uh, I've pointed out on your show before that we were wrong this year about, you know, the S&P or the NASDAQ turning over. We've had brief moments of sell-offs, but they've been bought. Those dips have been bought. Um, I just wrote in my newsletter, the Fenwick Commodities Report, this weekend, that I think, you know, sometime next year that will stop because every earnings season the ante gets upped, right? You know, you, you have to keep putting up numbers regardless if you're tech or not. You have to keep putting up numbers for Wall Street. And at some point, when you start seeing consumer sentiment drop, non-farm payrolls start to wane, GDP is hanging in there, but it's kind of artificially hanging in there, etc. Um, and then with a tariff overlay, like, you just don't know as an investor when the end is. And you don't want to be holding a ton of stock, um, in the broad market, in my opinion, when that, you know, the music stops and there's nowhere to sit.
Yeah, I definitely want to dive into the AI bubble and the broad market a little bit later in the conversation, but first, I'd like to explore your portfolio a little bit when it comes to silver stocks. What are the names you're currently invested in or watching in the silver mining space that you think have the biggest upside potential ahead?
Sure. So, I just mentioned the two ETFs. SIL is the large-cap ETF for silver producers, and SILJ is the small to mid-cap. Those are great holdings if you don't have the time to look at stuff. You know, I, I don't think setting it and forgetting it on two ETFs is the way to play it, but that would be core holdings for us. Um, that might represent, you know, 10% of our portfolio. But we own things like Triumph Gold, uh, which is misnamed in that they bought a silver play, uh, this year. Uh, and, and so it's more of a multi-dimensional, um, asset for us. Uh, so that ticker is TIG in Canada, TIGCF in the States. Um, Triumph is trading at 24 cents U.S. as we record this. They're getting no credit for their silver acquisition this year, which they bought for like pennies on the dollar. It's in Utah. Um, I didn't know much about Utah before the, the, uh, acquisition. So, I did some homework. These guys are really close, you know, to the Osgood camp in Utah, which has been producing there, you know, for years and successfully. So, I'm not worried about that jurisdiction. Um, I think you do have to worry about certain parts of the U.S. like California and some other states where it's kind of county by county, but Utah's seems to be very mining-friendly. Um, and Triumph did a great job picking this up for nothing. Um, they need to cash up. Once they cash up, they're going to be drilling this thing, I'd say, in Q1, maybe, uh, of next year. If not, definitely you're going to see results by Q2. So, you don't have a long wait as an investor. Um, and the share structure is reasonable. Um, the CEO owns about 10% of the shares. You've got strategics that own about another 30% of the shares. So, with 40% plus in good hands, we love the share structure, too.
Um, another one that I got, uh, just acclimated to, Jesse, in September at Beaver Creek was Silver 47 Exploration. Um, we haven't mentioned either of these, I don't think, on your show before. Um, that one is AAF in the States, AGA in Canada. The reason I like it is that they did a merger with Suma Silver and then did a large financing around that. I thought that was a really smart move because the two entities by themselves weren't as powerful as they are combined. And now they can drill year-round, which the market is totally missing because they have three assets in three different states where they can just rotate the rigs. And that way, you're putting up like news all the time, which in a hot silver market is huge. As you know, you're, you're, you're really sharp when it comes to this stuff. I mean, when you're putting out great drill results two years ago, it's like crickets, right? Uh, now, even average drill results are getting bought. And so, that's what, um, the average investor needs to understand is that we're, we're approaching a rapid investment environment for silver. And you have to buy equities that have exposure to this and also aren't blown out in terms of share structure. So, um, that one's an interesting one.
Um, let me think what else. Um, you know, Guanajuato, I have to mention just because it's since the last time you interviewed me, uh, GSVRF in the States and GSVR in Canada. These guys made a great acquisition with the money they raised. So, they got tarnished for the, the two raises this year. Um, I was expecting one raise myself, but now I know why they did the second raise. They bought Bolanitos from Endeavor and they bought it for a song. Um, I think that this is going to generate a lot of silver production for them as early as next year. Like, this is really adding value to the bottom line. And you can see it in this, the chart. I mean, the stock really took off on the news. And you don't really see a lot of that, right? When you're buying something, a heavy cash transaction, too. You're not seeing like a massive move up, but it didn't take much for the street to figure out that this was a really accretive deal. So, um, you know, that, that is, and they have power in Mexico, right? These guys have been operating in Mexico, producing in Mexico for years. So, they don't have that same, you know, wait and see approach as some of these open-pit miners do in Mexico where they're hoping to get a permit. They're, they're, they're going for it right now. And James is an aggressive leader. So, I like, you know, you kind of, you kind of see what where I'm going with some of these names. I like aggressive CEOs that see the opportunity. I don't like CEOs that are sitting there saying, "Gee, I wonder if I should do some marketing." It's like, "Come on, man. You're over $50 silver. This is the time when you spend the money, you find a way to get out there and tell your story."
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How about the gold space? Do you see gold positioned in a similar way to silver in terms of where we are in this precious metals bull market? Um, do you see a completely different set of factors driving gold? How are you viewing the kind of gold versus silver question? And would you say at this point in time, even at $58 silver, silver is still the more undervalued metal of the two?
Yeah, I didn't look at the RSI, the relative strength index on gold going into this, but I know silver was still under 70 pre-market today. So, you know, 70 is when you start getting worried about selling, but in a hot market, Jesse, it's more like 80 for us. You know, we saw Barrick run to a 91 RSI before we started to sell any of it recently, which is nuts. I've never seen it above 90 ever. Um, so, so you're going to see some stuff you've never seen before, which is awesome. Uh, we're seeing that in technology. It's great to see it in gold and silver. But, um, RSI is one of the metrics that we use to kind of check ourselves. And when we see 80 plus, we start to say, okay, traders, professional traders are going to start looking at this and maybe start shorting a metal, shorting a stock, right? Um, we're not seeing that yet. We're seeing explosive moves here last week and into today's action. So, uh, to your point, uh, the gold to silver ratio is something that, uh, investors may want to check out. So, it's, it's an ounce of gold divided by an ounce of silver, and that's your ratio. It got really stretched this year, over a hundred a couple of times, and we were telling people on your show, this is not going to last very long because silver will catch up to gold. Like, a lot of people were thinking, oh, gold will just drop and then silver will remain the same. We were saying the opposite. We were saying gold is going to maybe trend for a while and silver will start to move, and therefore the ratio number will drop. And so that's where we're at right now. But we're not in the camp like, you know, my partner D'Errett is, where we think a really low gold to silver ratio is going to show itself this year or next. Um, I hope I'm wrong because I'm not going to sell my silver cheaply. But, you know, to get to, let's say, 100 silver, it's going to take some time. I mean, we're trading at $57, $58 when we record this. It's, it's going to take some time. It's not a straight line up in any asset class. So, um, I, I think gold, when you look at the backdrop for gold for next year, it's extremely bullish. I mean, Croup is the only analyst out there who needs their head checked. They're at $2,500 to $2,700 by June of next year, which is hilarious. Um, uh, the most of the banks, though, are $4,100 to $5,000. So, you know, that's really constructive for the producing gold miners out there.
Well, let's talk about the gold mining space then as well. Um, obviously, I've spoken to some people, Adrian Day among them, who said that even at these prices, uh, you know, these levels, even the big producers are still very undervalued. Would you agree with that? And what are some names that you're watching, uh, similar question to the silver miners, that you think are providing the most potential upside moving forward?
Okay, sure. Um, look, I think, uh, when you look at GDX, uh, again, going back to what a lot of people own because this is where assets actually reside. Uh, GDX is full of, like what Adrian said, large-cap producing gold stocks. But, uh, it made an all-time high this year. This is the all-time high. This isn't a year-to-date or a one or three or five. So, GDX, you know, is in no man's land. We don't know where it's going, right? Like, which is awesome. Kind of like in Nvidia in tech, right? It just kept going higher and you don't really know where the top is, so it's hard to short it. Um, GDXJ, on the other hand, hit a high of $179.10 back in the old days. So, we're trading at $108 right now. I mean, there's still a lot of room in the small to mid-cap stuff, which, as you know, I overweighted last summer. I mean, you know, I was early, but that stuff is paying dividends for us right now. We're going to see a beta move in the miners, and you want to have small and mid-cap exposure. You don't want to just own the big-cap producers in my opinion.
So, you know, um, give you a couple names. Uh, Daenerys Metals, I just spent some time with them two weeks ago and did a deep dive, which I rarely do on stocks, but I was like, Don put a seed in my head. He said, like, 150 to 170 companies literally globally produce gold and silver. Very small number, and Daenerys is one of them. So that's DNRSF in the States, DME T in Canada. Um, the chairman has been doing this for 40, this is his 40th year in mining. He builds mining companies. He's not like a closy kind of guy putting out like, you know, fancy, you know, PRs, press releases that, you know, draw clients in. Like, he's putting out real stuff. And, and so while he has been a little late in terms of getting the production story to where it needs to be for the market to get more interested, meaning higher tons per day, um, that is going to happen next year. So this isn't like, hey, three years from now we're raising this or we're expanding capacity. It's happening next year. So when you look at a 36.5 cent stock, you're like, where am I going wrong here? What's my downside risk? I always look at that, Jesse. I look at like a stock and I look at downside and upside, right? This is something that portfolio managers and, and asset managers look at all the time. We call it downside capture, upside capture. Um, and downside risk on this stock is hardly anything in my estimation. It's like 29, 30 cents U.S. trading at 36.5. The upside is probably a double from here next year because the revenue they're going to generate in Colombia alone is going to be massive. If they just double their production capacity, which isn't saying a lot, like they're going to put up a lot of numbers. But what's most interesting to me is that they have Spain coming online as well next year, fully permitted, right? Like, they're, they're two, you know, two assets fully permitted, Spain coming online. I just don't know how a stock like this is trading where it is. Um, they did a financing recently, which is putting some pressure on the stock because they did a life financing. So, a life financing allows, you know, investors to sell the shares right away. A lot of people do that to hold the warrants. We don't do that. We don't see the value in doing that in a bull market, right? We want to hold both our shares and our warrants. Um, so I think the selling is going to abate in that stock probably, you know, in December.
Um, another one would be, uh, Rua Gold. Um, which I have, I have not given any of your investors. I don't think this one either. Um, that's NZ AUF in, uh, the States, RUA in Canada. Another one that I met at Beaver Creek, which is why investors really need to get off, you know, uh, off away from their desk and meet people live because it really matters. Like, I'm a people person. I want to know, you know, what I just mentioned Daenerys. To me, it's about the people there first. They're great people and they work really hard at what they do. I, I felt the same when I met Rob at Beaver Creek, you know, two, three months ago. His project is right near a producer that's gone just exploded over the last 12 to 18 months, right? So, when you look at the geography, they're right there. Um, and they have multiple projects. So, they have an antimony project as well, which, as you know, I'm, I'm big into critical minerals. So, I'm like, okay, the gold's going to work. We all know that. But the antimony is a kicker that they're getting no credit for at all. You know, U.S.A.S. America's Gold and Silver, Paul Hewitt's really a smart guy. You know, Paul said the same thing about his stock. He said, "I'm not getting any credit for my antimony, but I will next year." So, I think these are some of the things that investors need to understand is that the stories that you own change for better or for worse, right? And if they are for worse, you need to sell those stocks and buy something that's going to do better for you if you have limited capital, right? We call that opportunity cost. The opportunity cost of holding something that is going to go flat for you for months is that you're not going to participate in this rally. So, we coach clients on this all the time. It's a difficult thing to kind of admit that you're wrong and say, you know what, this just didn't work out. But we have to do that literally every week, you know? I mean, it's just part of investing.
Let's switch to the broad market for a moment because I want to kind of follow up on what you were saying earlier that you think we need to see the broad market roll over before you'll start to entertain thoughts that we're perhaps in a very long-term, decade-long trend when it comes to to silver specifically. Um, what do you see when you're watching valuations in the broad market at present? And obviously, this is something that comes up again and again, how everything's valuations are extraordinarily stretched. Howard Marks has come out recently and saying the current PE of the the broad market, 10-year returns following this level are always between minus 2 and plus 2%. So, not a place to really park your cash for the long run, according to him. Um, would you agree with that? And how severe do you think a correction could be if reality rears its ugly head and these insane valuations for companies like Nvidia come back down to earth?
Well, we would think a traditional correction in something like the S&P would be 20%. And we think that's very doable, um, next year. So, this isn't something that investors are going to have to wait for. If, if you look at what I've said on your show previously, we were thinking 10 to 12% and now we think 20% because a standard correction is due for the broad market. These valuations have gotten way out of hand in some names. To give you an example, like Tesla, which I consider, you know, kind of a tech stock. Uh, it, you know, it would show up differently, I'm sure, on the pie chart of the S&P holdings, but, let's be honest, right? Like, Elon Musk is is like a savvy, uh, CEO who's out there pounding the table on how tech, how how driven Tesla is by technology. So, the PE on that stock is 260 to 300 as we speak. I mean, I haven't looked at it, you know, I don't own it, but it's definitely over 250. Um, and yet, you know, you hear about these mining stocks that, you know, PEs of 15 or 20. Are they getting stretched? It's like, give me a break. I mean, some of this stuff's going to come back down to earth. And, um, what my concern is, Jesse, is that like what we saw in '08, '09, we saw a lot of, um, overlap in holdings from asset managers. What's different this time is two things. One, the average asset manager is managing way more money than they did in '08, '09. And two, the velocity of trading is real, and you have to be extremely careful of that and knowledgeable of what that means for your portfolio. Let me give you an example. So, Liberation Day this year, right? Current example, Apple stock that everyone knows, down over 20% in five consecutive trading sessions. My question to the investing public is, at what point was your pain point during those five days? You know, did you sell down 10, 12, 15, 20? Like, you know, this is, this is like, you know, if you're margin, you know, in a margin account, you're getting margined out of stocks like that in a very quick time. So, my suggestion is again, work with a financial advisor, work with a professional like myself, someone that understands these markets to help you to say, like, you know, you have a lot of risk here that you're not really aware of. And, and let me give you another point. So, like technology, right? It, you know, back in the '08, '09 correction, let's say it was, or even the '99, 2000 beginning of the correction there, you had about a 30% weight on technology stocks, I'd say maximum, back in '99, 2000. And yet, it was the headline everywhere, you know, Microsoft, Cisco, AOL. Um, now it's like 44% technology as of October in the SPY, um, of which a lot of that resides in the top 10 holdings. So, when you are faced with redemptions as a portfolio manager, do you really think you're not going to be selling those stocks? Like, you are going to be selling those stocks. And my, my concern is that you get feeding selling that feeds on itself, right? Um, and I'm not the only one who thinks this. Michael Burry's been out there pounding the table on this, you know, for, for weeks and weeks now, uh, from The Big Short, and a lot of other gentlemen and women out there that that kind of think we're floating, you know, on air right now in terms of valuations on some of these stocks.
So, in the event of this 20% correction, do you expect that to bring down the commodity sector as well? You know, everything selling off in the panic, gold, silver, miners as well, perhaps the metals too. The, the argument that I've heard is if that situation occurs, the, the kind of bullish argument for the metals and miners is that after such a sell-off occurs, we will see, you know, the real hard assets rise faster and more sharply out of that correction than we would the broad market. Is that how you see things playing out?
So, the stocks we've talked about today are equities. They're stocks, right? They are going to have a component of higher risk to them than say a metal, um, in gen, in, in most scenarios. Um, look at February, March 2020 and look at Liberation Day of this year to kind of give you an, you know, example of, can I deal with that kind of a sell-off? Is my risk tolerance high enough to deal with that? And I would argue that most people do not have high enough risk tolerance to deal with that. So, you have to just say, "Okay, these are my core holdings, and I'm not selling these no matter what. These are the ones I'm going to add to on dips like that." Right? Like, one of the reasons we have such a big silver position is that we, we really went out there, Jesse, at '08, '09, like a long time ago before we even started reporting numbers, as well as in 2020, and we were buying silver a lot, you know, when it was painful to buy because we were like, "This is not going to last." And sure enough, that asset roared higher. So, you know, you have to just look at, um, uh, yes, to answer your question, you will have a sell-off in the GDX, the GDXJ, the, the kind of stuff we've talked about today, but how long that correction is going to be is really one that I just wrote about in my newsletter again this weekend, where I'm saying that the corrections out there since '08 have been much shorter than people expect. And so you're, you're not see, like, look at the last one we just had, Jesse. This, this just happened literally since, let's call it October 1st of this year. Uh, HUI, the, the, which is similar to like a GDX, down about 21%. You know, during the sell-off period, gold was down, I don't know, let's say about 12%, and silver down about 15%. Right? A lot of people can't handle down 12 to 21. They can't, and they got out, right? Um, now you're wishing you didn't get out because that was just a typical correction in a bull run. And so that's my suggestion to your listeners is, you will get pain in a general sell-off in our sector. We're not immune to it. But if you see the, the long picture here, which we do, um, you want to be careful about trading because things snap back quicker than you think.
And when it comes to watching economic trends as an investor, what are the things you're paying the most attention to? You mentioned the upcoming, uh, rate cut that that is at 80% consensus, I believe you said, or close to there, that's going to be coming up. So, I know you're watching what the Fed does. Um, are you watching what's going on in terms of the trade policy coming out of the Trump administration, tariffs, you know, these sort of back and forth trade wars that are brewing when it comes to, uh, China specifically, and the potential implications of that? I mean, I think perhaps the big story in the commodities space that's related to that is the fact that China is restricting exports of certain rare earths. They're going to be restricting silver exports, a few different critical minerals. Um, what's on your radar when, when you look at the, the broad economic picture around the world today that helps to inform your decisions as an investor?
So, let's start with the U.S. You know, the Fed is something that's always important to me. I know a lot of your guests don't feel that way. They're wrong. Look at history. The Fed drives behavior in multiple parts of the world. And you have to respect it. You don't have to like it, but you have to be aware of it. So, one of the things that we talk to our clients about all the time is, hey, mark your calendar for these Fed dates in 2026. Be ready for this. You're going to get volatility almost every single time. And it's not just in those two hours after the announcement, Jesse. It's the following day or so, right? It's like people sleep on it and then it feeds on itself either positively or negatively. So, you have to be real careful around Fed times. Um, unless we get like one of Trump's guys in the Fed chair to replace Powell next year, which I think we might. So, then, then it's like, okay, uh, you know, he stacked the deck in the Supreme Court. He might stack the deck in the Fed. And I'm telling you, this guy wants lower rates, which is really good for gold and silver. So, macro-wise, we're looking at that first and saying, "Wow, okay, we have all this geopolitical uncertainty over here, some of which is getting resolved, in fairness, like Russia, Ukraine. Hopefully, you know, it's been an awful period of time for these people." So, hopefully, we get to a resolution, but we still have a lot of question marks out there. And, um, I mean, you know, did you have Venezuela on your list of things to watch for in 2025? I didn't. You know, there's, there's a lot of things out there that are crazy that are happening, and Trump is going to deal with them. Like, I think, um, the average investor doesn't really believe this yet, which is crazy to me. But like, he's proven that he is, he is a guy that takes action. And so I think if that's, if that's how you feel and you, you think some of this is resonating with you as an investor, then you need to look at that as sort of like your backdrop, right? And then within the backdrop, you have to look at the data because the Fed is data-dependent, and they're looking at non-farm payrolls as a key factor for what they do. August 1st, non-farm payrolls for us were a huge miss because it wasn't just the headline miss. It was the revision down. And I don't mean to be a broken record. I've said this on your show twice before. I'll say it one more time. 258,000 jobs revised down right from previous months. That's huge. And that was a big deal for us. We kind of went all in in August, Jesse, because we had the all-clear from the Fed at that time, and we had the economic data kind of supporting our thesis, and that was a great move in retrospect. Um, the other thing that we're looking for is, of course, inflation because the Fed has talked over and over again, we're concerned about managing inflation, and we're looking at job growth. Those are the two metrics that I just mentioned.
So, what's interesting about the way this year is playing out, Jesse, is December 16th is non-farm payrolls. December 18th is CPI. So, it got pushed back as well. So, these are two huge metrics that the Fed is going to look at for the January decision, way late in the year. Um, and if we get some data that supports another cut, you're going to see another cut the last week of January.
I want to end on discussing metals and commodities outside of the gold and silver space. What are you watching most right now, and maybe some some mining companies, uh, that are involved with those commodities?
Sure. Um, wait, I wanted to mention one that I'm actually bullish on in the AI space. Um, there's, there's one that just caught my eye that I mentioned. It may have been on your show earlier this year. Um, and it was called, um, the ticker was IPA back then, and now it's called HYFT. They changed their ticker, so it's Harry Yellow Frank Tom, and the ticker, um, the symbol is, uh, HYFT in the States, NASDAQ traded. Mindwalk is the name they've rebranded themselves because of their technology. And, um, this is important, I think, for investors to understand is that I'm not a hater of biotech. I'm not a hater of oil. Like, I, I really do invest in these sectors. It's just not part of our portfolio that we put on our website, right? And so Mindwalk is is near and dear to me because I lost so many of my friends and family to cancer, and I have close people in my family that have diabetes, and, and they, their drug set really kind of, um, it, it, it addresses these these horrible diseases. And, and so I think, you know, when you're looking at how AI can help, like, I'm not the most tech-savvy person out there, but in, in biotech, this is really interesting stuff. And so we started a position on that just recently, in full disclosure, again, uh, we bought it, you know, real cheap earlier this year. It got crazy high, um, and then we, we, um, were just added to our position again a few days ago.
Um, one that I've talked about once on your show, and you've asked Don and I about oil and gas, is Anchor Resources. Um, I don't think everything in Asia is created equal. You know, Cambodia is is a country that is not, uh, it depends on other countries for oil and gas production. The, what, what interested me about Anchor is that in March, they came out with news saying that they struck a deal, pretty much to have a 30-year lease, like on going after assets, uh, producing assets within Cambodia. And this is a, uh, 16-cent stock, like, producing oil and gas already, and now saying, "Hey, we got this huge contract." How do they get this contract? Potentially? Well, it's, it's relationships. They've been in that country for many, many years. Uh, Dellay and her husband, Mike, are are the CEO geo team, which I also like. They're, they're good communicators. They own a ton of stock. They bought a lot of stock in the open market. So, I think you're going to see good things from that company next year. You know, I, I, I really feel some energy, um, uh, exposure in your portfolio makes sense. Um, especially if we enter more of an unusual time with with wartime talk. But, um, in the critical mineral space, I just wanted to point this out. So, XMUS, uh, just mentioned about a hundred billion dollar, um, uh, you know, in aid, if you will, for critical minerals going into next year. When I was on your show earlier, and we were talking about the $1 billion that the Trump administration had talked about August 13th, I was like, this is nothing. This is the tip of the iceberg, I think, were my exact words. And now we're seeing a hundred billion dollars being dedicated to critical minerals. So, what I think people miss, they see the headlines, right? They say, U.S., China, high-fiving, you know, hey, we're putting all this stuff to rest. They have no clue that we are so far behind China and Russia, uh, in terms of mineral production. We are, we are in trouble. That's why you're seeing a headline like a hundred billion dollars, right? Like, this is, this is unbelievably good for critical minerals. So, when you sift through the rubble of what's happened just in November last month, um, uh, there's a couple stocks I'll just throw out there, which I've mentioned, I think before. Guardian Metal, um, GMTLF in the States, GM.L in London, no Canadian ticker. These guys have two assets in Nevada, and tungsten has not been, uh, talked about by China as having any relief. Um, as a metal. So, some metals, as you pointed out, are going to get some relief. This one is not. The export ban on tungsten hasn't been lifted. So, I don't know why these stocks are down at all. Like, I mean, the tungsten price is just going like this, real steady, either leveling off or going up. It's a beautiful-looking chart. Um, so that stock was around a buck 71, I think, when, in November 10th, when the news hit, and now they're trading at a $1.33. It's like 15% of the shares are owned by a billionaire, Stan Druckenmiller. This is not some mining billionaire. This is a billionaire that is a generalist investor that just sees the value in gold and critical minerals, right? Very bullish.
Um, another one that got absolutely smacked here in this news is American Tungsten. Great name. Uh, they, they changed their ticker to TGF in the States and TUNG in Canada since I probably last mentioned them months ago. But the stock, you know, got ahead of itself, right? It hit around $3.40, $3.50 a share, uh, on the U.S. side earlier this year, and now it's trading at a $1.13. So, you know, we weren't recommending it up there. We, in fact, were trimming our position. I told the company I was trimming my position because I, I said, like, I don't know how this is getting so crazy priced right here. But now you look at that and say, "Wow, okay, as a chartist, that hit this price on heavy volume. It wasn't like a blip, like a one-day thing." So, let's even throw a $3 round number out there. Forget $3.50. At a dollar, you're trading 67% below that, right? Like, this is the kind of stuff that you just can't make up. These companies are dominant because it takes a lot of work to get DoD and DOE relationships as they have. It takes a lot of work to have a publicly traded company in, in a, a small metal like tungsten. Uh, Jesse, I mean, honestly, there's, there's under a dozen companies out there that I track globally, uh, with, with like public companies in tungsten, right? So, like, this is pretty exciting for investors to buy a dip in, in a critical mineral that I see is very valuable going forward.
Well, I mentioned in the intro, you have two investment conferences coming up. May 17th to 19th at the Grand Hyatt in Washington D.C. and May 20th to 22nd at the Four Seasons in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Why don't you break those conferences down for us and let us know how people can attend?
You can email me at john.fenwick@yahoo.com. Um, that's the easiest way to do it. Um, we have a website built, uh, which is another way to do it through my, my team. The, that one is info@topshelfypartners.com and, uh, the website is www.topshelfypartners.com. Um, so, why they're different, Jesse, and why people should think about attending is that we, um, we, we basically just have, um, like last week, I had 11 companies approach me to attend. We accepted three. We're not ex, we're not just taking money from from companies. That's not our goal. We're not conference organizers that are going to have 200 companies there, right? I'm not knocking companies that the entities that do this. I'm saying that I want to have a manageable event where companies and investors benefit, right? It's not just the investor. Um, so for that reason, we have one uranium company right now. We have, you know, a handful of tungsten or antimony stocks that are attending. We have one or two oil and gas companies. We're really spreading it out. These are broad commodity conferences that are, in full disclosure, heavier weighted towards gold and silver because gold and silver are, you know, where our investor base lies predominantly. And so, yeah, we're going to bring those type of companies in. But these are great, great opportunities to meet CEOs one-on-one and ask them questions that you have on your head, you know, on your mind that you want to get resolved to feel better about your investments or to add to to positions. One of the questions we ask investors that are attending, Jesse, we just don't let a, you know, you pay the fee and you get in. You have to meet, you know, to fill out a two-page form, and you've got to answer questions like, are you actively buying mining stocks? I don't want people roaming around a conference that aren't buyers. That's not helpful to the companies, right? Like, the companies want to build relationships. So, you know, it's, it's a two-way street, the way I look at it. Um, we're going to have some good speakers there as well, but our, our conferences aren't like your traditional conference where you have a speaker at lunch, a speaker at dinner, a speaker at breakfast. We don't have speakers at the meals because we want the investors to meet the companies and vice versa. So, it's really a networking kind of based, uh, event. So, yes, May 17th through 19th in D.C., May 20th through 22nd in Florida.
Great. Well, I'm going to put that link in the description below as well as those email addresses. Finally, tell us about Fenwick Consulting and and how people can access your services there.
Sure. It's, uh, fenwickconsulting.com. If you go to the performance tab, you can see what we've done over the last 10 years or so. Um, very proud to say that my 10-year history is coming up December 31st, so a month from today. Uh, and it's been a, it's been a long, windy road. Um, but I'm excited to post the 10-year number. Um, which I think will be respected in the industry. Um, I'm going to work extremely hard this month to make sure of that. And, uh, there's three things that investors can do. They can buy, uh, the newsletter. They can do that. We don't charge like 12 months upfront or anything. You can do it for three months, six months, whatever you want. Um, that to me is somewhat flawed, Jesse, in that we have a newsletter because everyone has a newsletter. We've been doing that four and a half years. Um, but we, we started six years ago with what we call real-time emails. So, you get an email in your inbox this morning about the gold and silver action because I get up at an insane hour. So, I'm looking at, you know, futures the night before. I'm looking at the pre-market action, and I'm emailing occasionally, hey, silver's up one and a half percent pre-market. It broke out to a new high, as you know, last month. Like, this could be really good because of the monthly close, and giving investors that kind of real-time data that helps them make decisions as opposed to waiting for the newsletter, right? And we also update people on drill results. We update them on, uh, P.E.s or important milestones for the company in real time. So, when that news comes out, like we did that with Guanajuato when they came out with their news, the stock was at 24 cents. Stock's trading at 38 cents now, right? So, literally three or four days later. Getting that news early can really help. Uh, and lastly, they can book a call with us. So, they, they talk directly to me. They don't talk to staff, like some people. Um, and they can ask whatever they want. We just don't, we're not allowed to say buy or sell because you have to be licensed to do that. But, you know, on the call, if you were to say, you know, John, what do you think about silver? I'm going to tell you I own silver, right? Like, you, you kind of know where my head is by asking the right questions. And, uh, hopefully, people will check that out.
Great. I'll put a link in the description to Fenwick Consulting as well. Great conversation, John. Really appreciate you coming on the show again.
Thanks for the opportunity, Jesse.
Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. Their prices are appearing on your screen right now. These are all while supplies last and subject to change. Reach out to owner Ian Everard today to take advantage at 307-264-9441 or by email at ian@archsggo.com. And make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. And pick up your Commodity Culture merch. Rep the show in style. Everything backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Use the link in the description below, and I'll see you guys in the next episode.
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