Transcription
Absolute wild week, and when we look at the S&P, it doesn't really look like much, but there's a lot under the hood. We are seeing massive divergences inside technology themselves, with leading sectors actually rolling over, while other pockets of technology are actually outperforming. Some are outperforming 32% already in the month of July, and we're just getting started.
Everybody's nightmare: crude oil looks like it's heading back over. We're getting over this key level, and we're going to spend some time talking about how this is going to shake out, how this is going to affect the technology names, and where we're seeing the rotation. Our wants versus needs index looks like it's setting up to break out, and this is definitely an issue. This usually leads to a more defensive stance. We're going to spend some time on this and what it means going forward. I don't really like what I'm seeing here, and there's some other things that we have to cover.
Is DRAM dead? This is the question. We have a major break of that trend that finally broke. In other words, this was support, and support has flipped to resistance with DRAM. So, does this look like it's going to come back? What will be the signs of that? What do we need to look forward to?
And then we have earnings on the week. We're going to have to go through the first hyperscaler that's coming out. We have to talk about exactly what to look for, not only in the earnings but on the conference call, because this could be make or break for semiconductors. Let's get to it.
Those traders are reacting to the institutional levels. What we're trying to get you to do here is to know what they're doing ahead of time. Subscribe. Click all notifications. What we go over here is timely by hitting the bell. You don't get it after retail's already in. The important thing is you get the information, education that you need. Subscribe. Let's get to it.
Welcome back, everybody. Well, a lot to go over, as always. And people always make fun because they say I say that all the time, but there usually is a lot to go over, and there's way more to really get lined up for next week. So, let's get to it.
As we all know, for those that watch these videos, Saturdays are our deep dives where we really get into it. And then for the rest of the week, we follow through our plan with daily videos. So, here we go. But we could just see the range just to start. So, it's not really rocket science. We can all see how this is playing out. And this little gap down here is a little bit of an issue.
Now, for me, starting with the basics, and I always find the basics are just the best way to start. So, if we look at the volume on Friday, it was pretty excessive. Now, what's good about that is that we hit the 55 and then we held. I use a 12, a 22, and a 55. And I do think that it's important for me to point that out. I also did increase the size here so that people can actually read the numbers a little bit better. And I also put this watermark on that people have asked about. I think it's overkill. Frankly, the more I look at it, I think we're going to have to vote that one off. And I don't think we're going to be using the watermark. I think it's overkill. So, you guys can vote on that again, but I don't know. I don't know that the vote's going to matter, guys. It's right up here with the date and the frame of the chart, and I like that better. I just think it's cleaner. Anyway, 55. And you can see how we're holding right in there. I think it's important. I also think it's important that your put walls at 740 and it didn't move.
So, the question becomes, why the huge volume push? And then after the volume push, what are we expecting? Well, I think you had a tremendous amount of unwind that happened on Friday. By unwind, I mean people that had calls and puts, and obviously they unwind those positions, and we had massive moves, and we could see those massive moves.
So, the first thing you should take from this is the gloves are off come Monday morning. And what I mean by that is you no longer have the training wheels. People that want to go long are going to go long. People that want to go short are going to go short, but you don't have Friday's option expiration hanging over your head.
And you also have to deal with what happens in South Korea Sunday night. And we're going to get to that. And it's just mind-boggling that no one's really been covering this the way that we have, and we've been doing a fairly decent job of keeping you in the loop with it and why it's so important. But we broke down from this level, the 760. You're not really been able to get over it. 740 you've been holding. This is a 12-week moving average. And then you can see if you've broken that, you've coming down to the 720 area, and you've never really done that. So we don't really see a lot of problems here.
And when it comes to the S&P, if we do simple things like look at the RSI, we could see that we popped over. We could start seeing that the RSI is starting to undercut, but at the same time, are we really seeing something that is becoming what I would refer to as a major problem? And the answer is no. I don't see major problems.
So, let's say that we hit a major snag somehow. Where does that take us? Well, it's going to take us to the top of this range. If we hit like a really major snag in the market, the very first level is going to be down to that 696, which is going to take you down about what, 6%? 5%? Okay. You know, back in the day, we used to correct, you know, every 18 months we'd correct like 10%. Everyone's just kind of used to being, I don't know, almost coddled with the market that it doesn't go down, and that's just not the case.
So, when we look at this on the daily, it's definitely going to tell us a different story. And there's different breadth indicators that we're going to use today that I want to show you and how to use them. So, one will be the ZG breadth thrust. People use this very differently, but it gives you a really good overview of what's going on. I'll show you in a second here, but what do we have so far? Well, we have an undercut right here, and then we have a bounce offset undercut. And we can see major supports down here. We can see the RSI pop. We can see the RSI pop here. And then we can see the RSI break over here. And it's not again rocket science. The RSI broke right here. And the day that it broke through that and closed, that's really been your high. And as I like to look for control bars, you can see that that's been an area of interest. So 750 you've really been fighting. We have to be very cognizant of the areas that we're fighting. In other words, are we really closing and making higher highs over that? We tried once only to get kaibos and matumbo to come right back.
So, can we come back down to that 720 area? The answer is, I think you can. And I think to end this, you might need to do something like that. So, when we look at it daily, we went weekly, then daily. Now, watch when we do. But, but wait, there's more.
So, when we come to the 4-hour, and I'm going to clean it all off, and we'll just start again. So, when we come to the 4-hour, you're able to see your little bit of rallies here and then how you're just rejecting those, right? And I want to just start with the basics before we get into the nitty-gritty. But if you were to look at something here, and we'll use the magnet for now before it drives me nuts. We could see how we hit this area and then we held. And then if we go and take a look at the RSI, we can see that we hit that area and then from hitting that area, we are lower. So for the same area, the RSI is actually going lower. And the reason that you care about RSI so much, and the reason I use RSI so much, is it measures the amount of movement that you have that is either positive or negative. So, what you're getting in here is you're getting more negative movement, more downside pressure, even though you're at the same level. That's why RSI is so important to me. And it's one of the reasons why I always try to explain to people when you're looking and using an indicator and oscillator, deconstructing it so you know what it calculates will be very, very helpful. And this one to me is very helpful. If you ever, there's a book by Wilder, you can go look it up. It was out in the 70s and he explains this. He actually created it. So, he gives you the actual calculations. But you can always overlay DMI with this, and it's a great way to see what's going on in the market, but for time's sake, we're not going to go down that rabbit hole.
I think that you broke here, and I think it's an issue, and I think you need to get above it as soon as you possibly can. If not, I think you're going to have a problem, and we'll get into what some of those problems could possibly be. If you want to get super technical about it and you want to get into drawing your trend lines, you're on a major trend line here in regards to the RSI, and you really don't want to break it, and you've already broken the support of that area. So, could this become an issue? It could. It 100% could.
Flip it back to looking at something. Well, let me show you this on the hourly first before we go any further. And this is where people tend to lose it in these environments because they'll see this and say, "Oh, well, we're oversold." Well, you can stay oversold on an hourly longer than you think you can. What you're looking for are divergences here. Meaning that we go lower, but the RSI doesn't. Because if we go lower and the RSI doesn't go lower, then that's going to tie you into something. What's that going to tie you into? Well, that the negative selling pressure is not as bad as you think it is. That's why it's so important to me, and one of the reasons why I use it so much. Not because it's like, "Oh, it's doing this, so I have to act." I can use it for, you know, intraday trading. And I do use it for intraday trading. But when I see something like this, take this in June 5th, where we hit a level, we fall down, and then on these hourly charts, you can see your reversal right here, and you can see the divergence, and then it tries to break again that same level, and it can't break. You would have an understanding that the probability of not breaking this is predicated upon the fact that you're holding in here, right? So, just something to think about.
Now, there is no one that does a lot of technical analysis that has been trading for a very long period of time that is going to look at the NASDAQ right now and say, "Man, that looks fantastic." Quite the opposite. So, we have this huge buying volume where they did this huge unwind. And when you see DRAM's volume, it's it's literally off the charts.
Before, before I forget, I want to preface this. I think this market's about to get absolutely wild going into earnings. If you're trying to get into the community, please check your email because I think there's 24-48 hours left to get in. And the reason for that is I do the onboarding calls myself. You're not forced to talk to me, but I like doing them. And I personally think the next six weeks are going to be nuts. So when we see this happening, we close enrollment till about September just to get through it so that I can focus. And I just want to get that out there before I forget it.
So, if I take a look at what's happening here, it's impossible to look at this and say technically that we look great. It doesn't mean that you can't bounce, but you have the 22, the 12, and the 55 all converging now, and they're all in this area from like 718.75 down to 715 or 713. You hit this level, and you can't get over it. You have huge volume.
If I take this right here and I just go to where that 55 is and I drop that line, get rid of everything, go to a five for a second, and I just want to show you this so you can see what's been happening at that level. You'll see that you've been battling this level for some time, and you finally gave way to it. Hits it, tries, hits it, holds, hits, it breaks, can't get back over, and then that's it. Now, does that mean that you're going to fall off and everything's going to just completely implode? No. You have some positive catalysts that are coming out that can change that. But right now, we can only play the hand that we're dealt. And the hand that we're dealt is a declining 22, a declining 12, and the 55 that is now flipped from support, which it's been for five days. Five times we held that 55 to where we have broken, and now we came back to this key level and we're holding it.
Now, this is something that people would look at and say, "Well, if we can hold here, we're good." What we always do is want to look at indicators, oscillators, and the breadth of the market to determine the probability of whether or not you're going to hold here. It's not certainty. You're not playing with certainty. You're playing with probabilities. And that's a huge differential here. You're leaning one way or another. So, you don't want to be like stuck in cement with your ideas. You want them to be fluid. And that's how traders work. They work on probabilities. They don't work on "we're definitely going to crack" or "we're definitely going to go higher," blah, blah, blah. "Boomer doesn't know what he's talking about." Whatever. What you want to do is just say, "What is the probability of holding here?" And I can give you some examples of how I do this. I tie education into these because I want to make educational videos, but I don't have the time. So, I really lack it. So, I try to tie it in there. So, some parts of this you may want to watch again, or you might want to jot notes down, and then you go buy some of the books that I talk about, and you can start getting better and better and better, because that's what everybody's trying to do. That's why you're watching this, right? To get better. So, or to get information that could be helpful.
Now, if you follow this on the RSI, it's it's perfect. It's absolutely perfect. What I do see is I do see that we are lower in this area than where we are. That is a good sign. Meaning, same area, and in here we're not as low as we are here. So, that could be setting us up for some kind of divergence.
If we take a look at this on the hourly, we've undercut. We tried to rally till about 12:30, 1:00, as everybody that traded on Friday knew that they were a genius buying the open, and then by 1:00 they felt like a. And then you can just start seeing it roll right back over, right? So, we have to be cognizant of that.
Now, if we go and take a look at this on the daily chart once again, does that look like something that is setting up? So when we go through these multiple time frames that we just did, we can see that the multiple longer-term time frame actually cracked versus the 4-hour. So we have to look at everything and then figure out which way we're going to wait it. I always wait longer time frames more.
So, when I look at the weekly now, and the weekly has broken, not just the moving average. And I change this moving average when it's a faster market like you're in now. I flip it from an SMA to an EMA. So, when we're in a faster market, I flip it from an SMA to an EMA. When we're in a slower market, I leave it as an SMA, and I smooth it out by changing the lines. So, I change my settings. Anyway, if you take a look at how smooth this is, look how smooth it is. So, if you take a look at how smooth it is, you could see that you cracked in here about three weeks ago, and then from there, you tried to rally, and that failed, and now you're making a low. So if we go and take a look at the weekly, the weekly where we were when we closed was above the weekly. Here has broken. So one of the most deadliest times in any market is when you have a rally and then that rally breaks that moving average and comes down. That is about as bad as it can get from a weekly perspective. And I just, I want to give you some examples of this so that you can see what I'm talking about.
So, I'm going to clean all this off, and then you can go and do this for yourself, and you can spend your day doing this. So, if you click the line right here, God, I'm funny. So, if you click the line right here and you can see that we broke the average, and then we broke down here, and then that became the high, and that was the high till what? Till we flipped in here, right? And you could argue that it was actually getting back above the 50 line. And remember what RSI does, guys. RSI is telling you positive versus negative directional movement. There's actually an indicator in here that you can actually go and play with that I use a lot, and it's just there it is. Directional movement. It's right there. Look at it. So, if you flip here, and once you have your settings right and you're comfortable, you don't need it as much because you just use RSI because, anyway, so if you take a look at this, you can see it. Oh, look, we flipped there. Oh, we broke here. Oh, look at that break. Look how that marked the high. So if we use that and we follow the logic, and then we just go to the top and go, "Oh, look, so far it's marking the high." You can do this over and over again. This one is not as pronounced, but if you did it, you can't miss it as well. Oh, look, it marks the high, and on and on and on we go where we're seeing these. And then it's not saying that you never come back. I want to be clear about this. So for this period of time, I could probably do a study on it, but if you did it for this period of time, this was, you know, about eight weeks. This was months. This was months. I don't know what this is going to be, but you can do this over and over again. And you don't have to just do it now. You can do it throughout time. I don't really want to use when, you know, itchy decided to inject 1.7 trillion in the market. But the more you do this, the more you'll see like, "Oh, okay, well, we did break here, and that marked us in the 14th for about, you know, four weeks," and you just do them over and over again. But it's really when you're breaking the line and you're below that. And what it will do is it'll just mark you off for a period of time.
So, what do we have? We have the same exact setup that we've had historically. If you go back decades and you want to play with what I just did, that's telling you that you probably have put in a high for a couple weeks to a couple months, which is why I think this earning season is going to be absolutely wild. And if you're not prepped for it properly, you're going to have a bad day. And I can't stress that enough. You need to be really prepped with levels going into this. And I'll explain why.
If I do the simple things again and I look at the Qs, we broke the 55. When you've broken the 55-day, and this is how I look at these averages, it doesn't mean how you have to look at them, but this is how I look at them. I really don't want to do a lot of swing trading when I am below the 12 on the underlying index. When I'm below the 22, I don't want to do a lot of bull bets, meaning swing trading. Bulls in charge, bears in charge below. If I use these demarcations line this way, it makes tons of sense. Institutional support, 55. If I lose is institutional support. You are dealing with a market that is going to have tons of false breakouts and breakdowns. And you have seen this, right? You have absolutely seen this. That's why when you see things like Micron break out, like hit a bottom, break, go to the 55, get matumboed, and come back down, people are like, "What happened?"
So, what you have to do is change your style of trading. And people that are in the community, they know this because I keep yelling at it like an old man yelling at the clouds. But what you want to focus on here is, "Oh, look, you went to the previous close, which is just also happens to be the 55." And this was your put wall. So, we hit the put wall, and then from there, we bounced, got back to the previous close, hit the previous close, and then from there, what did we do? We rolled over, and that's where the 55 is. So, when you're looking at something like Micron, you have to look at this very differently. Well, you should do what you're comfortable with, but I have to look at names like Micron now and say to myself, "All right, I'm in a trading range. So, I need to know where the put walls are. I need to know where the moving averages are." You have to spend a lot of time looking at those levels versus previously where you're trading. And then when you're trading, all you're doing is this and going, "Well, as long as I'm above the 22, I'm good. I'm golden. Yay." Right? You know, DRAM forever. People are getting DRAM tattoos and everything else. So, we have to think about this, and you have to change your style with what's happening.
So, when we see the NASDAQ doing this, or you see the SOX breaking down like this, this is where people really run into an issue because they'll look at this and say, "Oh man, that's a lot of volume. That's it. That's the undercut. Now, we're going to bounce." I have a declining 12. I have a declining 22. I have broken the 55. So, I look at it and go, it's very hard for me to take a swing trading stance on semiconductors. It's very hard for me to say that the bulls are in charge right now. It's very hard to say that institutions have any interest in semiconductors. And so people will look at this and say, "Well, maybe I'll get a bounce." Yeah, you might get a bounce. You know, if we bounce like 8% or 9%, that's great, but it's a bounce for ants compared to what we've had before. So the question becomes, is that something that you want to trade? Is that something that you want to do? I can't answer that. And if it is, you want to drop your time frames down. I can answer that part of it.
So, when you're looking at the 4-hour, which you are right now, you would have to realize that, yep, you're just following right along on the RSI. It's nothing extreme like it was back in March 30th, which just happens to coincide perfectly with when we peaked. If you take a look at it, the day we peaked really is going to go back to the window dressing. So, everyone owns semiconductors, and they were all buying them. And then what happened? Yay, we have to own semiconductors for window dressing. And then they've puked them. So, we are seeing that rotation, and let's get to that rotation because I think that this is super important, and then I want to get into the subsector of DRAM and go through some names and some things you need to look at.
So, there have been two major, and let's go to a plain chart here. There have been two major rotations in my opinion. So, the first one is the Mags, and we've been talking about the Mags on this channel for some time. You can see where we bottomed, and if you really mark them off, you'll see when it happened. So, it happened right around when, right around the window dressing. So, no, it literally is. No, we don't own the Mags. This is basically the hedge funds and long-only guys that have to report to the limited partners, and they're like, "No, we don't own those." And so, then that gets you into this, right? And so, they're like, "No, we own semiconductors. Yay, semiconductors." And then they all puke them. And I think that's one thing that's going on, but I do think there's something else. I'm going to touch on it when we get to DRAM.
So, we could see how we're following through on those names, right? All right. Cool. And then if we look at the SOX at the same time, you can see that this is right around the area where the SOX rolled. So, if I do something as simplistic as go Mags divided by the SOX, you'll see the turn. Now, if I take that turn and I just make it a line, I could actually turn this into an indicator. I mean, you can see it very clearly, but you have these periods since this was around. And I think the Mags came out when, in like June or whenever this is? Let's see if I can get rid of this thing. It'll tell me exact. Move that up there. That's going to take us April 23rd, something like that. When this thing came out, right around when they said we were going to lose all those regional banks. Remember that. Anyway, so if we take a look at that, what is that telling us? Well, you have a baseline, and it's only a couple years, right? It's about three years. Man, time flies. So, if you take a look at that. So, all right, maybe we get to the baseline. So, what I'd like to do with these kinds of relative movements is I like to take them, take a look at the top of that, and then from there, just drop it like it's hot, as the kids say, and just take a look and say, "All right, well, where does this really put us on a Fib level?" And you're looking at this and saying, "Well, we're not even at 23% yet." And if I took this back to that 38.2%, that takes me right near that neckline. So, how long could this go on for? Well, this could go on a lot longer than people think it can. And I think that that's where we're going to start seeing this start to play out.
Now, you can throw, again, you can do whatever you want with this. You could actually put, you know, moving averages on it, volume, etc. I'm not a big fan of that, to be clear about it. I look at it more in a relative basis. I like looking at where that neckline is because that tells me when we swung too far or too fast. And if you take a look at that break in April, you can just see nobody wanted to own those. Everybody bought semiconductors. That is changing drastically right now, and they are buying the Mag 7.
Now, why this is so important to us, and we might as well touch base on it now. I was going to do it later, but we might as well just follow the vein. So, why is that happening? So, we have the new one that came out, right? We're all supposed to be scared because Kimmy's here, and it's going to be China's new thing, and it's going to be free, and no one's going to use Google anymore. Okay. So, after we come back to something called reality, we have to look at what is exactly happening here. And I think that this is really important. One thing that we have to pay attention to is capital expenditures. And capital expenditures, the first sign is are they going to increase or are they not going to increase is going to be on Wednesday. So, you have 2026 full CapEx guide, 180 to 190, up from 175 to 190. But the prior range, they bought some data centers here, and that's why the range was in here. They unfold that, and it actually was 175 to 185. And I think that that is important. And I'm going to just say why I think it's important. Because these CapEx guides, while they're higher, the growth of that CapEx guide seems to be slowing. So, to me, it's an issue because if they leave it alone, that might be great for Google, it might be bad for semiconductors. If they increase it dramatically, then it might be good for semiconductors and bad for Google.
The number that everybody truly cares about, like Google absolutely crushed last time. It was an absolute unequivocal blowout. And just to put it into perspective, the size of this company is enormous. And you were supposed to do 260, and you came in at like 511. Their earnings and revenues, you're doing 110 billion a quarter. So, when people think, "Well, these, how big could these numbers get?" They can get a lot bigger. The question is, are they going to or are they not going to?
See, the way people look at this, and let me just get to this other part of this, why I'm saying this, but the way that people look at this, and I do think that this is important. People keep saying things like, "Oh, you know, we have to see the return on investment. We have to see, you know, are they making money doing this? Are they not making money doing this?" People are not not getting this. And I've said this for some time. This is about survival for these companies like Google. This is not CapEx expected to increase significantly compared to 26. This is not about how much money they're making about it. This is about survival. So, in other words, let's say that this new model that's coming out, Kimmy, it's all the rage, right? It everybody loves Kimmy, and they all use that instead of going and using Gemini. Well, Google loses its search dominance, and its search dominance goes somewhere else. That's not acceptable to Google. And I think if you approach it from they're spending in order to compete versus they're spending in order to increase ROI, I think that you get a very different outlook on these companies. And it makes a lot more sense to me when I view it that way. They have to do this in order to survive. They can't allow this to continue. I mean, it's very simple. It's adapt or die.
Actual CapEx was 357 last quarter. 60% servers, 40% data centers and networking. So, you know what names are going to move when this happens. And again, I think it's really important to get this. That's what you're going to want to focus on with Google. To me, looking at the name, you're pretty wedged in here probably until this continues. This is where Kimmy was going to be a problem, and Gemini is being delayed because they want to make it better. I don't really see the issue with Gemini and them wanting to wait to make it better. The issue is getting involved with these other companies that are basically saying, "Oh, use us for free." Remember, guys, if you're using something for free, you are the product. You are what they're selling to somebody else. I mean, we should all get that by now, right? But Google this week, you definitely want to pay attention to it.
Let's get to DRAM. Now, if you've been watching these videos for some time, you know, I do them unscripted. I have little notes, but I just follow the vein where it takes us. So, I am going to tie back to some breadth indicators in a moment here because I think it's important for you to know exactly what I think you should be watching. And then you can do what you want with it. But DRAM. So, this is about as clean as we're going to get to DRAM as far as pricing and everything else for this is going to move as DRAM goes up. Here's the issue. I'm seeing a lot of talk about DRAM prices spiking, and that DRAM's over. I don't see any signs of DRAM slowing, like zero. And I have access to look at it literally daily. And I don't see it. But what I can tell you is that the concern that you're starting to see in the market is taking place around the same time that you have the end of the quarter. So, the question that you have to really think about when we mark this off is how much of this selling is a bunch of people that window dressed and now they're they had to get out of those names, and then from getting out of those names, then we have to reset and then reset expectations. And I think you're dealing with a lot of that.
In the meantime, we always have to understand how I view the world because I think it's important. Not because I'm an ego-maniac, but if you understand where I'm coming from, then you can decide whether or not it's something that even interests you. So, I view everything as index, and then everything as sector, and then everything as stock. And this is where people get destroyed because they'll look at a name and they'll say, "Well, that, what happened? That's a great name. I want to buy that name." But if the index is selling down, the sector is selling down, and you're going to go buy a subsector, or you're going to go buy a name, you're going to have a bad day. It's fine if you're going to be one of these people that is going to say that, "Oh, no, I'm going out for three months, and three months to a year, and I think DRAM's going to bounce back and blah, blah, blah." Cool. That's a completely different trade.
Intraday trading, and if you think about it this way, it'll make a lot more sense. So, if you're trading, let's just do it here because it'll make everyone's life easier. This is how you need to view the world of trading. If you're short-term trading intraday, or you're a day trader, or like one or two days, all you really care about are technicals. Whether they make, you know, waffles or DRAM does not matter. All that matters really is what the technicals are doing. And so trading Microsoft or Oracle or whatever for a day doesn't really matter. The longer term you are, the more you need to look at the fundamentals of a company because you're trying to stay in there for quarters and seeing how the stock's going to act. Huge, huge difference. And I think that that gets lost a lot on people.
So, I look at everything: index, sector, stock. So, I can't really look at the Qs that we just went through and say, "Wow, this looks fantastic. I really need to get more involved here." I can't really look at the SOX and say the same exact thing because we saw the SOX, and the SOX looks god awful. Right? We can say anything we want about it, but when you're breaking a key level and we're holding in here, and we have these declining moving averages now, you know, you have three days to get back above here. That's 6%. You could do it. It could happen, but we have to get up here. We have to start building again and basing. So, I have time, right? It's not going to miraculously everyone's going to have go in on Monday and say, "Oopsy." And we have to kind of talk about what's going to happen Sunday night. Not kind of, we have to talk about Sunday night and then coming into Monday, and what I think the key things to watch are.
But let's get back to DRAM. So, the question with DRAM is what? The question with DRAM, and cleaning this all off, is what's the next move? Well, here's the 12 screaming down. Here's the 22 rolling over. So, realistically, you could see that you can get back up to that 60 level, and you'd still be in a downtrend. You'd still not have institutional support. So, from a trading perspective, you have a shot at it. The volume that came in was enormous on Friday. Now, to me, they're doing unwinds. And this is what you could see in the option market. So, in other words, if they had tons of calls and they were long DRAM, they got out. If they had tons of puts and they were short DRAM, they got out. So, they're unwinding their trades in here. So, why do you care about that? Because what's going to happen going forward is that DRAM and these names are going to get way more volatile than you're used to. And if you thought they were volatile before, they're about to get a lot more volatile because the training wheels are off.
So, when we look at something like a Micron, for example, and we can see the huge volume move that you had on Friday versus what you've had on volume all of July. This was the greatest volume that you've had. So, they're unwinding those positions. Now, when we look at how we're hitting these areas, and how these areas are starting to try to reclaim that 55, well, rejected on Friday, and so that rejection is definitely something that we have to pay attention to.
If we take a look at this again, look at the volume and look at how it moved. This is really significant because you had a binary event, and all you had to do is get through it, and you couldn't at the end of the day. And so what you did was you rolled back over. And I was having a conversation with somebody about this, and let's just do the simple things. It's not overcomplicated. So, who buys when? If we take a look at something like Micron. Well, Fridays, it might be a little different. Let's pop that back up. I don't know how that happened. Oh boy, it's getting nuts here now. That's it. We can do this. I believe in me. Hold on. Stay with me. There it is. Okay, cool. We're just going to have to rock and roll with it.
So, if we look at this area, and let's go back to what I was trying to do before I got flummoxed, and we go and take a look here at the hourly. All right, so here's the first hour of trading. People can say, "Well, that's just options, and that's just the market, and it doesn't matter." All right, there's your put. Here comes retail, right? Here comes Peter Cottontail. And so, they have to, they got to get in. "I got to get in. I got to get some DRAM. You got any of that DRAM?" And then they just like pile into it, right? All right. And then you mark off from like, let's just take 2:30 to 4:00. All right. So, if we say this is retail, who bought? If we say that that is institutions, who sold?
Now, here's the other flip side of this. You don't, you might not be able to just do it that way because this was your put wall. And when you hit your put wall, everybody that had puts is going to be like going, "Oh, thank God. I'm making a killing on my puts. I got to get out." And so that's why we exploded the way that we did. I mean, look at the liquidity grab that happened here in five minutes. So, you came to 832, and in five minutes, you were back to 864. Like, that's not institutions saying, "Man, I need some of that DRAM." That is just people that sold puts that are like, "Boy, oh boy, I got to figure this out."
And if you go back to the previous close, and we drop it like it's hot on a one-minute, and we take a look at that area, you can see exactly what happened. They hit it, flipped it, and then that was it. And then you can see these areas over and over again how that became a battleground, and then of course, we gave it up at the end of the day. So, I do think there's something to that. I think if you look at this on an hourly chart, and I clean this off, you can see what really happened here. You have this huge one-hour just rip, and then as time goes on, all the market faltered at the same exact time. It all faltered right around 1:30. All of it. So, it doesn't matter the name that you want to look at, but they all did the same exact thing, and they all got to the same level.
What's concerning from a technical standpoint, going index, sector, stock, is that while I'm doing this, and you have these little breaks, and you can measure them off, but as you're doing this, previous put levels are starting to become resistance, not support. So, 1,500 was the cat's pajamas. It was the bee's knees. Everybody's like, "I can't wait for this to get to 1,500. That's where we have support." Bonk, bonk, bonk, bonk. Right, I'm gonna buy it. Wham, breaks it. Tries to get through it. Wham, reject it.
What I will hear a lot of is that, "Oh, but this is on Friday, so it's options, so it doesn't matter." I think it does matter, and I understand that people are saying that, "Oh, well, you're off because of this." But when we go back, and we're going to tie this all together before we get to the next thing that's super important, and we look at the Qs and say, "All right, well, we still have this level, and we're holding." Okay. Well, how's the breadth of the market doing? And is the breadth get better on Friday or worse? Because just because you're selling options or closing your position doesn't mean the breadth has to get better or worse. Like, it doesn't work that way, right? That's not how any of this works.
So, this is NDFI. And NDFI is going to be the NASDAQ 100 stocks above their 50-day moving average. I told you I'd bring it home. Here it is. So, when we look at this, what is it telling us? Well, it's telling us that now we broke 50 on Friday. So, on Friday, the NASDAQ 100 now has more stocks below its 50-day moving average. I use a 55. You should use what you're comfortable with. But you now have more stocks below that moving average than you've had. And that in and of itself is an enormous problem because what it does is it puts more weight on the market. Meaning people that look at that institutional level, they're not going to go for it. Therefore, we shouldn't go for it.
So, if we look at that reading, it's actually worse than any reading that we've ever had that since this started, since we broke back out. So, it's actually closed below that. And you might think it doesn't matter. It does matter to me. I don't know that you have to gap fill, but if you look at where does the NDFI bottom in order for us to actually have a real bottom, if I just came to this and dropped it down, and we could turn this into an indicator, but for time's sake, I'm not going to do it because there's a lot of stuff I want to cover. This is when we had all that winning and liberation. You were down to a one or a two. Now, you don't have to get there to bounce. You know, this time we got to a 14 where you don't get trough valuations. You can see it here was around to 10. You know, you start getting into the mid-teens, you have something. You know, when you get to those mid-teens, 30 days out, you want to.
start looking. And if you just did that for yourself and just sat here and said, "Okay, if I bought here and I'm 30 days out, how did I do from 2024 on?" you you did pretty well. And you can kind of go through history and actually look at those areas and it's pretty good. Here was a little goofy because of how he was ejecting all that capital in the market. But if I went back and said, and I've I've actually back tested this and done this study, but if you look at these time periods and you're buying the NASDAQ and you have a 30-day outlook, you're doing pretty well from that.
You're not anywhere near anything like that. You're This is day one. And that's what concerns me a little bit here when I'm watching people talk about these bounces. So before I go down the rabbit hole of of the the next thing that I think is super important, the S5FI. So this is going to be the S&P stocks above the 50-day. And you have a level here as well that is right around here. And I did this study before. And you can actually just screenshot these yourselves. But whenever you're in my zone, danger zone. Whenever you're in that and just you can screenshot these and go and back test it for yourself. Then just go and take a look at it. You'll note that 30 days from then that you find yourself in a position that you're pretty happy that you bought the market historically.
You're not anywhere near that. Now, do I care about where you're at here? I I'll tell you what I care about. I care about the reversal. And it's it gets kind of like goofy, but because I'm I'm splitting hairs, but you're getting to the same level over and over again. and you're unable to break that level. So that does become a concern on the breath of the S&P that we're there. And this was also a concern. And so I'll tell you what I think is going to wash it out in a minute. But if you sit here and take a look at XLF, like where's the follow through? Where's the beef? So they're buying financials. All right. Well, someone should tell the financial companies that they're buying financials because the financial companies had a day. They had one day where they bought the financials. If you bought the financials, if you bought the big banks, how did you do? You were a genius for a day and then all of a sudden they rolled over. I think I was in Croup for an hour before it kaibashed and rolled over. Are they Are they Are they really buying financials? And the answer is maybe, but they certainly don't seem to be in a hurry, do they?
Now, in front of you is the Zag breath thrust. And that's what's down here on the bottom. And I I'm going to explain how I'm using it right now. And it's important for me for you guys to understand what this stuff is. So this is the zed breath thrust and what it is 10day average of advancing to total New York stock exchange issues. So it's the 10day average of advancing to total New York stock exchange issues. Right? So now you know that it's a moving average. It's taking a look at the advancing versus all everything else that's out there. And so if you're going higher and that's not going higher, you could see how that could be a pickle. All right. So if we see the peak here, we see the peak here. And I should be able to grab this and just bring that up. So, we see the peak here and then we go higher. We see the low here and we're still in the same area. We see the peak here and we're still in the same area. So, we're not really doing a lot there. The issue for me is these lows. And as we're making lower lows in here, you're actually getting to the point where you're actually going higher. So, less names are advancing. So, we have an area where less names are advancing and then at the same time we're pushing higher. So if I drop it to here for example, you're right in this area. Now here you're obviously you have more than here, but you're really right in this area. So we don't have a lot of issues that are out there advancing right now. And I think that this does give us some pause.
Now you can have some kind of flush event. And I'll show you. This will be the best way to to show you and hammer this home. So I don't know that we really like that this is blue. I think that we're going to make this bright so that you can see it. make it shine bright like a diamond. There it is. So in front of you is rate of change. And I have it set at the settings that they have it at. And so what we can see with the rate of change is how we're declining. But that's falling in line here. And that's not really an issue, right? Where the issue becomes would be if we took these little peaks and then we went and let's change that color because that way it doesn't match. Come on, you can do it. I believe in you. So we can see how it's testing and now how you're rolling over. The problem here if you look at the NDX is if you break the zero line you don't get positive movement. So it's not possible to have negative movement or negative rate of change and then to have a positive move in in the index or in anything. It's just not realistic. And and so you can when you see this kind of thing like here's where Micron broke for example and you can see from there it's just been really bad. So, it's not a function of the higher lows. I'm not a huge one of those kinds of guys, but it's like you need to be positive for this to actually go higher. So, when you look at something like SanDisk and these things are rolling over, it's really hard to have a positive bias against something that's telling you it's going through a negative rate of change.
So, here's what I want you to take from this, and then we should talk about the two wild cards that are out there. But, here's what I want you to take from this. The first is that you have broken into a negative rate of change. It doesn't mean you can't come back into a positive rate of change, right? You can and then you can see that the market actually responds to that and actually will push higher. But when you start breaking into a negative rate of change, right, it becomes an issue like, oh, here we're in a negative rate of change. Oh, look, we're in a positive rate of change. Like, it's not rocket science. Don't don't overthink it. But when you start first breaking, the problem that people run into, you can see here with the socks. The problem that people really run into is that they're just, oh, it's I got to get back in because it's going to be immediate. Well, what if this takes weeks? Like we started with this video. Like what if it takes months once you break that RSI on the weekly? We don't have a clue to that. So the things that you have to think about are going to be the catalysts that you have, right? And then that's what you would focus on. So if I go and take a look at the first one, EWY is going to be one of those. Another one is going to be what happens with crude oil. Where where I would tend to focus is XLP divided by XLV. No, XLP divided by XLY. Yes. All right. So let's get to this. So this is your needs versus your wants. So what do I want versus what do I need? Well, you need Clorox. You need soap. I hope you need soap. Uh, and then do I need those fancy, you know, Sydney Sweeney jeans? Maybe you do. Who knows? But, you know, what are you buying? What are you not buying? So, they are buying XLP. They are not buying XLY. So, I think that this is very important for me to point out before I go into the next two topics that is setting up to break out. So, we want to see this actually change and not break out. So, you can set this up for yourself and use it for yourself. Yay. And it will give you a guide. If this starts rallying, then that puts you in a position where you're like, well, things are going to get worse. They're not going to get better. It's no different than when you broke it here. And if you take a look at this top and when this collapsed, that's when the S&P absolutely rips. So, it's always your needs versus your wants, right? You can you can go a step further with this and look at something like XRT divided by XLY and you'll see that retail, they're still buying, but it's the discretionary side that they're not. So like you know your cruises, your airlines, things like that. But certain retail names are breaking out now. Not all of them. You start looking at something like Lululemon. It can't get out of its own way. But then you have some of these turnaround stories that people are playing like uh UA, which is just absolutely been ripping since earnings, right? You have that big investor that's in there, the Canadian Warren Buffett that's buying the heck out of this thing. Anyway, so you have that.
So let's get back to the issue. So the first issue that you have is crude oil. And this issue is a wild card. Will they? Won't they? Does this escalate? Does it deescalate? We tried the deescalation. We can see exactly how that went and the market loved it. And then we came back down, but we're starting to push. I don't have a horse in this race. And the reason I don't have a horse in this race is because I find it very difficult to commit capital to something that can change in a very quick period of time. So, there are names out there that look exceptionally well, that are doing exceptionally well, like Dino broke out and they're pushing. My concern with these trades is they're going to be over in a tweet and that's why I'm not looking at them. But I can show you what they are. It's like BLO, MPC, PSX. I just don't want to be around for the long dead the long red bar of doom. I don't want to be around for this. But you can see that anything associated with a refiner has just been absolutely ripping everybody's face off. And that probably will continue until this ends. But that long bar down is what where my concern is coming in and then just seeing oil, you know, just crater because this ends. And I don't know. I don't have an answer to that. I'm not a geopolitical expert. A lot of people will say this is going to go on forever. This is the new norm. Boom, boom, boom. I I I don't have a horse in this race, so I'm not playing it. I'm just showing you what one of the issues are. If crude keeps doing this, it's going to be a problem for the market and the energy trade's going to be back on. You can start seeing names like XLE start to push or XOM, all that stuff. But the real money is obviously in the refiners. Um, it's not in the tankers. Everyone thought it was going to be the tankers and then no, it's not. It's in the refiners and those names are continuing to push. That's a wild card.
I'm going to give you the wild card that no one's really paying attention to. And there's two things other than this that I think I have to touch base on. So the first thing is with South Korea, and I don't really know why people are not following this, but if you actually watch this, it's actually leading everything. So if you really watch where we broke here on the 22nd and then you go and take a look at the socks and you can see that the socks is breaking on the 30th like everything is following South Korea as a leading indicator. It's kind of crazy how it's been working. But the purpose of me bringing this up is they had a holiday on Thursday or Thursday night. And why I have this level marked off is when they went to bed that night here that's where their market was. And now you're coming into this and that market is putting themselves into a different kind of position where they're going to gap down. Meaning they're going to walk into a gap down. They just went through 400,000 of forced margin calls in here. I think it was something like one out of every 30 people in the country was march. It's something absolutely insane. But the purpose of me pointing this out is they also changed the regulations why the market was closed to increase liquidity for people and to put more restraints in place. So I guess saying increased liquidity is the wrong way. Let's look at it this way. The way that they did it would increase margin requirements is a nice way of saying it. And so that means people here are not going to have the same amount of ump that they had. I I think your biggest wild card is what does South Korea do Sunday night? Does South Korea step in and buy the market because it's cheap? Historically, when South Korea corrects, it corrects to 30% and you're right here. So, the first thing that we're going to want to do is watch South Korea Sunday night and see what it does. My horse in this race is I would think, and there I go again, thinking that they're going to have margin calls again and they're going to look at this and they're going to puke their market. That's what I would think with the way that this is acting. But, we have to see what actually happens. It's quite possible that you hold major resistance and you bounce off of it and that's what we're coming into Monday and then the gloves are off Monday because of the option X.
Two things that I think are worth pointing out. Number one, you had two major IPOs that came out and the first IPO was SpaceX and I'm going to cover that in a minute, but SKHEX is the large. I think it's bigger still bigger than Samsung and you correct me in the comments and comment on this video today because I went pretty granular. Let me know if it's too much. Uh, but if you take a look at SKH Heinix, the interesting thing is this is where they went home at night and felt like warm and everything's like rosy and that's what they're coming into. So, you're coming into the largest company out there in their exchange that's going to open down 12%. That's the difference to where we're at now. They have a different trading system over there. We're trading the ADR. They're not trading the ADR. And there's a spread on it, but all the same, it's still going to be down from where it was marked, right? It's still going to move the same way. I think this is an issue. I also think that if you look at the way that these new issues are working and one of the best trades that, you know, we've done recently was just SPCG and we can see how that's just absolutely exploded. Um, get these off. But if we take a look at it, why? Well, people are getting out of the newer issues. So when the newer issue market is doing this and telling you that we don't even want the IPO price anymore and people always tell me there's a reason for it, whatever, but they don't want the IPO price anymore. You you couldn't even hold 135. You went through it like a hot knife through butter and obviously this is going to weigh on the exchange, but also when you start looking at names like the SKH Heinix and then this is back to those lows. So I think watching this, watching Korea is the very first thing that we can do to get a better handle on this. But until we see how that acts, how we act now that the opex is over and then what happens with Google on Wednesday, you know, I really think it's anybody's.