Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are enveloped. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Sunday, September 28, 2025. And like every Sunday, we will do a long-term analysis since the week has been quite atrocious. 5 Bitcoin, -10, some have -15. Some have done -10, -15 everywhere. Well, has that changed things or not on the long-term weekly analysis? Not monthly. Yesterday, I did a monthly analysis where we could see what the coming months could bring. It didn't smell like roses, but hey, it can change, right? Monthly analysis will depend on the coming weeks, and that's good because today we will also do the weekly analysis which will tell us what the coming weeks could bring. This evening I will also be live from 9 PM to 10 PM. We will look at all of that, I will answer all your questions. No problem. It will be a small group live because, as I was telling you, every 4th Sunday of the month now, I will do a live to thank all the people who have subscribed to the channel, who have subscribed to the channel. Basically, you press the join button, and those who support the channel, it's €4.99 per month. Now, YouTube takes half, I'm telling you directly, I'm far from being rich with that. It goes into a small fund. It's small for now, but it allows us to improve everything around the channel, quite simply. And, as you can see, I try to improve the channel every month, every month, whether it's video, sound, everything. Well, and so with this subscription, well, those who want to support the channel, who simply like it, who love the channel and it's part of your lives, there is a special badge that also appears with what you have on all comments, you put it on lives too, special emojis too, and then an exclusive live to thank you. The last Friday of each month, the last Sunday of each month, it's a live just for you in a small group. So you can ask even more questions, please yourself. There you go, it's to thank the people who support the channel. So tonight, it's a live reserved for those who support the channel. We will also do a little daily analysis because the daily, well, the weekend is flat, not much is happening. Now, the market is in fear for now, and it's right. The question is, will we reach extreme fear, the red zone, the zone that stings a little, that pricks? You should know that we have had two big corrections, even three, since the bull run started. Some will say you, me, the bull run never started, I'm in altcoins. Your bull run, if it started until December, January. Except that in December, January, nobody sold altcoins because everyone was saying, no, we don't care, you see, I'm spoiling it for you, right? So altcoins since the end of the bear market, altcoins on average have done, it was December, a small +124%. So x2. So on average, it's not all of them, it's x2. Some did x3, x4, so some did x1 or x nothing at all. Well, so on average, altcoins have done x2 since we finished the bear market, and after December it's a mess, and some haven't recovered what they had before. So those who didn't take profits when there was nuclear divergence like I told you here in December. Listen, too bad, that's how it is, everyone lives what they want. Well, so there are three corrections. The first one is from 30,000 or 20,000, that's rather gentle. The second one from 74,000 to 48,000, it hit hard. It's in extreme fear. And the last one was with Trump, the tariffs, from 110,000 to 74,000, you see, and there too, extreme zone, well, it started again. So, will we touch the extreme zone? Will we go look for 105, the 382 of Fibo, or the 200-day moving average at 103, or the 50-day moving average around 98,000, or the futures gap at 92, and then it will be the extreme that pricks, you see, like here, and then it will be a good bottom. So we'll see. Now, regarding altcoins, I know many people are told there's a bull run, yes, Bitcoin is what had the biggest bull run, after that, well, you shouldn't try to do the same, everyone with their portfolio, right? Some tried to make big numbers by being on altcoins, you just had to be on Bitcoin's side, simply. Well, altcoins did here a +125%, that's the average. And even if I'm being stingy, I'm talking to you about the end of the bear market, the end of the bear market, if you see, if I'm really being stingy since those who accumulated in the bear market, it's, let's say, a good x4, between x4 and x5, okay? So those who accumulated calmly during the whole bear market, they really did well on altcoins, they went up between x4 and x5 on average. So that's the average for altcoins. That's the top 125, right? So x4, x5, someone who didn't take profits. Well, then you're really stingy. Well, okay, after the first correction, no problem. When we spent 9 months correcting in 2024, well, those who bought the dip around here, around the 200-day moving average. There's nothing better than the 200-day moving average weekly, between us, for the dip. Well, they are at 1 x 2.5. 1 x 2.5. Well, 6 x 2.5 in December, you didn't take profits. I'm not putting everyone in the same basket. You have to have the right altcoins too. If you were really unlucky, all the altcoins you picked did +30%, +40%. There you go, you'll tell me I didn't take profits. Well, but in any case, there was a nuclear divergence in December. There you go, those who didn't take profits, well, it's a shame for those who were there before. After those who arrived later, those who arrived later, well, they just arrived, they got hit hard. The type arrived not long ago. I'm mainly talking to those who are a bit older. Well, so what do we have on the weekly? This week's weekly, we have the Tenkan here which is support for altcoins at 812 billion. If next week, tonight at 2 AM, the weekly closes below the Tenkan, or next week a weekly candle starts to fall, it could be very ugly because the next support is at a small -13, it's the 50-day moving average. And in that case, it would mean that yes, yes, we will indeed go look for the extreme zone, you see, to find a small bottom. So if tonight at 2 AM we close below the Tenkan, it's not good. If we close above it, but next week a small red candle, it won't be good. It will be looking for the MA 50. On the other hand, the 50-day moving average, you want a good bottom, it will be a good bottom here, you see. Well, and then some talk, oh my god, bear market, bear market, it's the 200-day moving average, it's a bit less than 43 for everyone, for the idea, but for now, we're not there yet. For now, I'm not talking about a bear market, nothing is validating a bear market yet. There you go. Now, if the Tenkan holds and it explodes in green and it explodes the upper Bollinger band at 933, well, then it's off to the moon. For now, be a little careful. We don't forget the long-term structure. It's wave A which started in December and went to the 200-day moving average, found its support there. Wave B is here, zigzagging. At some point, there's a wave C. As long as altcoins don't break the top of A, 984 billion, wave C will start. It will go to look below the 200-day moving average, it will hurt a lot. So, altcoins for now are having trouble breaking the short zone. There was the week before last, last week, they succeeded and then boom, they were rejected. So if next week they are rejected again by the short zone, minimum MA 50. If the 50-day moving average doesn't hold, then the big C starts, and then you can put on diapers, whatever you want, because everyone will want to poop themselves. You see, what we would want is for altcoins to try to push, to attack, and to make a new record. actually above the December record, and then you'll have a running, and then at worst, C won't hurt that much, but for now, we haven't hit the highest point, you see. So, there's no big divergence. There's no big divergence. It doesn't look bad. The divergence would appear if we have altcoins breaking higher and the RSI doesn't follow. No divergence, we just see that the bulls are tiring, quite simply. So we can't say "Yes, altcoins are good, they're going to explode." No, not at all. For now, for now, there's doubt, we're still in wave B which zigzags, zigzags. If next week it goes green and breaks the record, or it goes to look for the 50-day moving average. But given the current atmosphere, we wouldn't be surprised if it went to look for the 50-day moving average, since the short zone is rejecting a bit there. Not very, very pretty. Moreover, the daily structure, we don't forget that we have wave A, wave B here, wave C, and if this regular validates well, it's boom, boom, boom, boom to go look for the lowest point. There you go, it's simple. For weeks, we've been following this regular. I'm not Nostradamus. I don't say what comes out of my hat. I read what's in front of my eyes. I just give my opinion, my opinion. And there, I see a structure that a regular flat has lowered. When that validates, it comes back to look for the bottom of A. And for weeks, we've been saying the same thing. When wave C comes, it will be boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. And look, we've already done half the journey. So, can it continue? Yes, clearly. So you feel well that there's perhaps a little more probability to go look for the 50-day moving average and pray for a good bottom there and that it starts again to make a record, rather than suddenly it takes off to the moon, you see, because that sudden takeoff to the moon is not a structure. That sudden takeoff, well no, it's not a structure, what is it? What's happening? Well, okay, well, there's no more structure, we don't understand anymore, you see. What could happen is that this is a wave A, a wave B, slowly zigzagging, and wave C is what will finish to go look lower. And it starts again. That's possible, okay? To have a wave C. To know if A will continue or if it's a wave C, B, we'll have to see if next week it starts to push, to do something like this. And then we'll have a B, we'll have a C that will also prick, but well, it won't be the, we fall directly. Well, knowing that the bears are there for now, well, altcoins are a bit weak, they can't recover the 50-day moving average of 826 billion. If it starts to break the lower Bollinger band, that is to say, if next week it's red, it's hello 200-day moving average around 696 billion dollars, and that's a small -14. Ah, well, -13 or 14 rings a bell. And what is it? It's also the weekly 50-day moving average, and basically, if you want, at -13, -14, you have the weekly 50-day moving average, you have the weekly Kijun, you have the weekly Ichimoku SSA, and you have the 200-day moving average. So, you have a group of support that is quite powerful, but it's a -15. I'm not saying we'll do -15, I'm telling you where the biggest support really is. Well, that's the idea. And a -15, if we look at the structure, -15 validates the structure too, you see. So I'm not saying we'll do it, but in any case, if we do that and we hold and we take support here for altcoins, a small -15%, chart-wise, technically speaking, well, it's very beautiful. There you go, because everything converges there. After, it will perhaps be the scenario of A, of B, of C, and then it will start again. But the objective is there. Well, regarding Bitcoin, we don't forget that this summer it diverged, right? Since this summer, since mid-July, July 14th, boom, the divergences are there, and not just one, it diverged on pretty much all momentum indicators. And what happened? It tried to make a new high and then boom, and boom. Well, that's the idea. And why do I say that? Divergence this summer, I spent the summer putting stablecoins aside, I told you, because divergence is not very, very good. And for example, I'll also show you Ethereum. Yesterday during the monthly analysis, I said to be careful with monthly Ethereum, it's diverging everywhere. There were two or three who weren't happy. One who left a bad comment, I banned him directly. I'm just saying what I see in front of me. I read the charts in front of me and I tell you my feeling, what the charts say. When it diverges, I have to say it diverges. I'm not going to tell you it diverges but don't worry, don't worry. There you go, that doesn't exist. Well, so after, those who don't want to hear it, I don't care, it's my money and I manage it. Everyone manages their money, they do what they want. Those who want to cover their ears. No, that's not true. There's no divergence except To the Moon. But I don't care, it's your money. It's not mine. I'm just saying my feeling, my opinion, and then do what you want with your money. I don't manage anyone's money, I only manage mine, so everyone does what they want. Well, and so a divergence often stings, so the divergence here this summer for Bitcoin wasn't a small divergence, it was many divergences accumulating, just like yesterday on monthly Ethereum, it was many divergences accumulating, okay, which flash red. Well, so it doesn't mean Ethereum will fall suddenly, it means it can zigzag, but it can zigzag and also get hit hard, you see, that's the idea. In short, so Bitcoin was rejected. Divergence this summer, well, it didn't miss. Small correction, we just went to look for 107,000, that's already not bad. Maybe it can go lower. What's not very good is that Bitcoin, two weeks ago, couldn't break its Tenkan, which is its average price over the last 9 weeks. Last week, it was rejected by its Tenkan with a hammer candle. Already last week, we were saying "Ah, that smells like a hammer candle." And this week, it didn't miss. Boom! The Tenkan said no. Well, the problem is that the next support for Ethereum, if those who bought around 107,000 dollars can no longer hold, it's heading here to a support trio around 100,000 dollars. At 100,000, there's the lower Bollinger band, the Kijun which is an average price over the last 26 weeks, and the 50-day moving average at 99,000 which is the average price over the last 50 days, and on top of that, the small gap at 92. There you go. Foufi, you'll tell me, when is the bear market, Foufi? Well, bear market, you see, it's the 50-day moving average. If we have a big red candle like this that hurts a lot, that explodes, a big candle that explodes, and 99,000, it explodes the Bollinger band, the 50-day moving average, the lower band will widen, and then bam, bam, bam, bam, you can chain a nuclear descent that can go down to 80, or even lower, that's the idea. So basically, as long as our beloved Bitcoin doesn't break with a big, stinging candle here at 99,000, be careful with a close, because it can do what? It can make a candle like this, atrocious, but ultimately finish the week like this, with just the wick that went to look for the gap and the body that closes there. That would be beautiful, you see. Let's hope it's this scenario, it would be super bullish for the future, that it does that. That is to say, it closes the gap, it keeps its 50-day moving average, which it has kept so many times during so many corrections. Look, it kept it, it kept it. It's beautiful, isn't it? We hope it does that. Otherwise, if the bear market starts, it's the 200-day moving average which is at 52,000, or the 300-day moving average at 44,000. Or here, the moving average that ended the bear market here. Now, I caught this moving average, and you'll laugh, it's the 340-day moving average. The 340 stopped the crazy bear market we had. Look at that. It's beautiful, the 340. Boom, boom, boom, boom. Look at that. Toum, tum, tum, tum, tum. All these touches. Piou, piou, piou. The 340 held up well. Why the 340? I don't know. Why, but the 340 matches well. There you go, just to have an idea. There you go. So, bear market, it will be a Bitcoin between 53,000 and 40,000. There's the idea. Below 40,000, I have big doubts, really very big doubts. Well, bear market, for now, I repeat, for me, we are not in a bear market. There is no bear market validation. Okay? It's not that we are at 120,000 or 110,000, even at 100,000 that we say "Okay, it's the bear market." We need bear market validations. A first validation would be to break the Bollinger band at 99,000. That's a first that tells us "Ah ah, a small red bear market light has turned on." You see, that's the idea. But for now, no bear market light is turning on. So, bear market, for now, I'm not even thinking about it. Okay? Breaking 99,000, I would say, ah, I might think a little about the bear market. Well, there's the idea. So, stinging divergence. Can it go to 100,000? Well, the next big support, unfortunately, is around 100,000 dollars for our little beloved Bitcoin. If we superimpose 2021, some will say, yeah, it's good, it's the bear market, it's here, but we need validations. We don't know that the bear market is starting now, that's not enough. So the validation will be breaking our 50-day moving average which has held for a very long time. In fact, since we came out of the bear market, since the week of March 13th, there you go, since we passed around 20,000, boom, we recovered the 50-day moving average, we never lost this 50-day moving average. So no correction, we lost it. So if we start to lose it now, it won't be good. But for now, we're not losing it. So the bear market, I don't even want to say it. Bear what? Bear, no, I don't see what it is. Me, no. Beloved Bitcoin, can it still fall? Can it go look for 99,000? Yes, clearly. Can it suddenly take off to the moon? Well, for now, the bears are there, they're not letting go much. So let's hope the 52 RSI holds and the 99,000 holds. Now, regarding the daily. So the daily, it's not very beautiful. It's completely normal. We've been following this structure, small A, small B, for weeks and weeks and weeks. The small C is missing. The small C. Especially since here, we have a small bullish channel forming. As long as we stay in a small bullish channel like this, well, a small bullish channel means more probability, unfortunately, of continuing the decline. So, how far can this structure here in a regular flat, small A, small B, small C, go? Well, it has several targets. But if you take the Fibos, for example, the first golden ratio is at 100,900. What is 100,900? Well, it's the weekly lower Bollinger band, you see. So a Bitcoin at 100,000, we're not in a hurry. There you go. Not in a hurry, we're not surprised, rather. And so, the structure tells us to be careful, as soon as it breaks 107,000, it can reverse. Okay. It's funny because I see some people saying Foufi, you're too bullish. How am I too bullish? For weeks and weeks I've been telling you that when this regular structure is finished, it's an explosion for a new historical record. And what makes Foufiber bullish? It's because I've been saying for weeks and weeks, be careful, there's a wave that's going to prick. That's it. Fou fib rich. No. Well, in any case, those who think like that are often new and they're going to get torn apart, you see. You have to follow the structures, you have to follow the analysis a bit. In small A, small B, small C, breaking 107,000 is its validation. Can it go below 105,000? Yes, it can go look below this wick at 105,000. Can it go look just below 98,000, just below this low point to get a lot of liquidity? Yes, the regular is still valid, clearly, it will hurt a bit more. In any case, we're waiting for this wave to finish. That's what I'm doing. I trust the structures, always. I'm waiting for the wave to finish. It can finish at 107,000, at 105,000, at 98,000, at 92,000. We'll start to get nervous. It will be an extended regular. In any case, when it's finished, the next step is an explosion. There you go, because this regular has to be validated at some point, right? So validating this structure means an explosion upwards. Regarding liquidity, well, there's plenty to eat for now, 64,000, and we don't forget everything above, that's not bad. Well, I'm going through the daily quickly because anyway, it's not going to move over the weekend. The weekly on Ethereum. Well, remember your beloved Foufi who just reads what he sees, I'm not making anything up. August 18th, boom, it lights up, paf, divergence only on the weekly RSI. RSI, the most powerful momentum indicator. Okay. What did little beloved Ethereum do? It went from around 4950 to approximately 3800, 3830. A small -22. It had a divergence on the RSI. Monthly, it has almost 10 divergences on 10 different momentum indicators. So when yesterday in the video I said be careful, it doesn't smell good, I'm not saying Ethereum will definitely fall, nothing is certain in life, okay? I'm just saying, as an analyst, pouf, there are so many indicators flashing red on monthly Ethereum that you just need to know. Ah, that's all. I'm just saying that, whether some are happy or not, that's not my problem. At least I'm giving you the information. Monthly, many divergent indicators are lit up. Daily, there was one, and only one, and it did -22, you see. Well, so that's why it's funny because when there are people who are all in on a crypto, I remember Solana, it was the same joke. Some didn't like it when I said be careful with Solana when Solana hit 300. When did Solana hit 300? It was here, it was in January, Solana hit 300 for almost every day for several weeks. It doesn't smell good. Big divergence, Solana will get hit hard. Oh là là , some weren't happy, the fanboys, it was like their wives, I don't understand. And what happened? And Solana, boom, it took a -67 between January and April. But unfortunately, these are people who don't want to listen because they are too in love, and that's the worst thing to do. In love with a project, that's the worst thing to do. And so you say, "No, it's not true. I believe in this project, I believe in it, I believe in it." They get wiped out. There you go. Unfortunately, these are new people, or old people who have no idea anymore. I love Ethereum, for years I was 50% Bitcoin, 50% Ethereum. And at some point, it did things I didn't like. Well, it's out. There's no "Oh no, I'm too in love with Ethereum. No, no, no, no, no!" Well, no. You have to think like a big robot. I'd say a robot [ __ ], but I wouldn't say bad words. That's the best plan. Okay? So, what does a trading robot do? Oh my god, divergence lights up weekly. Boom, I take profits, I relieve myself, whatever you want. Monthly, same, big divergence monthly, boom, I help myself, I relieve myself. There you go, that's what a trading robot would do in its algorithm because we created it for that. And as humans, same, you shouldn't have emotions. No, it's too great. I saw someone there who said that Ethereum was going to do great things. It's the future, the future, the difference, and all that. No, the robot doesn't do that. A robot doesn't think about that. Robot. No, be a robot. Well, I'm saying this, you're going to think it's crazy, because some people think I'm saying this about Ethereum, like you're being mean. I wish you well. I wish you all to make gains. What do I mean? It's unbelievable. Some people think that when I say something bad, that this crypto stinks, there's a high probability of falling hard. Ah, Foufi, no, he's not nice. Foufi doesn't want our good. But yes, I want your good. In short, excuse me. Small digression. So, weekly Ethereum, divergence in the overbought zone. There you go, I think I bored you with this all summer. It didn't miss. RSI divergence in the overbought zone equals cartridge. So those who listened to Foufi, the Foufites, the prudent ones, the too-early team like Foufi because they sell too early, well, they took profits around 4000, 4008, there you go. And now, they can enjoy themselves to inject. Can Ethereum go lower? Unfortunately, there are strong probabilities. Why? If tonight it closes below its Tenkan, which is at 4156, it will greatly increase the probabilities of going to look for the next weekly support, which is the Kijun here at 3176. If tonight it manages to close above 4152, then it will look better and it will try to make a small rebound. So tonight's Ethereum close will be tense. Hold on, knowing that the bulls are tiring on momentum. We have a crossover that wants to happen on the MACD. So the bears are not nice at all. Ethereum, the structure as usual. Wave A here, wave B there, and we'll wait for boom, wave C for a continuation running. So even if Ethereum crashes, it goes to look for this gap at 2853, it goes to look for its weekly 50-day moving average. Well, listen, the regular can validate like that. And boom, Ethereum heading for 6000, 7000. What people don't understand is that a correction here is a continuation running. Even if Ethereum goes to look for its 200-day moving average at 2450 here, we will still have this running, small A, small B, small C, and boom, explosion towards 6000, or even 7000, or even higher. There you go. So this is also to remember. Okay? And it's normal when you push very fast, very hard, you also correct very fast, very hard. But the next step is boom for those who will hold on. So I'm not that mean because I'm telling you that okay, Ethereum doesn't look good, but when it finds its bottom for this small wave, it will be aldente afterwards because boom, it will push like Bitcoin. If Bitcoin goes to look for, let's say, I don't know, the 50-day moving average at 99,000, finds a bottom there, the next step, small A, small B, small C, explosion, explosion, it's a Bitcoin that continues a crazy bull run. There you go. Well, excuse me, I'm talking too much today. Regarding the daily. Well, nothing special. Look at Saturday, Sunday, there are non-existent candles. Well, so for now, Ethereum has just told us that it's starting a new structure. It's in a wave A. Will A finish there? A B and a C will do this and then start again? Will A last longer and then it will do a small B here? Pam, pam, pam. And C will go below 3000. Well, we'll wait and see, it's the beginning of a structure. Well, so nothing special. The only positive thing is that there is a lot of liquidity to the north. So at some point, it will eat at least up to 4300. It will want to eat that. Well, we'll see the daily from tomorrow, and it hasn't changed since this weekend. We meet at 9 PM for those who have subscribed to the channel, and thank you to those who support the channel. Thank you for the support. I send you big kisses. I will answer all your questions tonight during this live from 9 PM to 10 PM. So I'll see you later. Bye bye. [Music]