Transcription
I was reading in the newspaper, "Where to invest 10 lakhs?" if you have any amount to invest, because there's a different kind of madness going on. Gold all-time high, silver all-time high, Sensex, Nifty all-time high, Bitcoin all-time high. And it's not like this is something which is a very well-understood phenomenon. In the last 100 years, it has happened only twice that all of these hard assets are at an all-time high. This is the third time it's happening. So, it's not like we know what should be done. Everybody is like, "Really well planned, well prepared. Oh, this has happened many times in life. We know exactly. You are young people, but we have seen a lot of life. This is how you should plan, right?" All economists are struggling to make sense of it. Everybody is trying to predict what is going to happen, what is not. And I feel, when I was reading this article, that it also has a slightly safe path laid out. But let's try and understand why we have reached here. Why 2026 is going to be a very important year for your investment journey. And how you should keep your mind very disciplined and safe from the ups and downs. Oh, what's likely to happen.
First of all, why am I so excited? Because today is Diwali. I am shooting this video on October 20th, when Diwali is being celebrated across the country. And that's why I am in this attire. It's Monday, so on Monday, whether there's sun, shade, flood, earthquake, we shoot our video. And I love it. Because the only way I know how to win is process or discipline. It's true for my money. It's true for my health, it's true for my knowledge. It's true for this YouTube channel. It's true for almost everything in my life, including relationships as well. Okay?
Let's get back to personal finance. Enough wisdom from you, Ankur. So, they spoke to three people. This is a promoted post on Iconic Nights, not a sponsored post. They spoke to three people. Prashant Mahesh, who wrote this article. Anand Rathi Wealth's Joint CEO, Feroze Azeez ji. PL Wealth Management's CEO, Inderbir Singh Jolly ji. And Aquarius Family Office's Chief Investment Officer or CIO, Chanchal Agarwal ji. And what they have done, which I like, is where to invest 1 lakh rupees if you have to invest in the next one year. But they have broken it into three risk patterns. One, if you are a conservative risk-taker, meaning you are a bit more fearful, your heart starts racing if you put too much in stocks. So, a conservative one, someone who has a middle risk or medium risk appetite, and somebody who has an aggressive risk appetite. So, how can you divide this 10 lakhs among these three? Again, bear in mind, nobody knows what is going to happen. These are all predictions. Of course, these are very well-established professionals who have been doing this their entire lives. However, it's not that they are right and this is the way. That's why they asked three people. Otherwise, they would have asked just one person. That would have been enough. The approaches of all three people are also slightly different. But at least they have given some direction. And the reason why I said this is a very difficult and uncharacteristic time is because everything is up simultaneously. Usually, in economics, it is said that gold is a safe asset when it comes to a store of value. Why? Because before 1970, whatever currency was issued in this world, whether it was the dollar, yen, or rupee, all of it was gold-backed. Meaning, the amount of currency they issued was equal to the gold the government had. But in 1971, this broke. So, gold and currency were decoupled. Now, all governments had the flexibility to print as much money as they wanted. And they didn't need to have that much gold. So, what used to happen? As soon as there was any instability in the currency, or the stock market started falling, people would start hoarding gold. Because that was the real asset through which currency was backed at one time. So, they have a reverse relationship. When the stock market goes up, gold usually goes flat or down. When the stock market goes down, gold usually goes up. But what is happening now? Currency is going up in terms of stock market performance. So, stock market performance is at an all-time high everywhere. S&P 500 is at a different level altogether. Of course, dominated by technology stocks. Then look at your Sensex and Nifty as well. 2025 has been a bit muted. This year, we have had almost like a sideways or flat growth. But if you look at the last three to four years, we are at an all-time high. Take gold, like crazy. Take silver, like crazy. Take Bitcoin and crypto in general. Because that's considered to be, "If the stock market is going up a lot, then perhaps Bitcoin will be flat or crypto won't be that aggressive." But crypto is also going up. So, almost everything is going up. Then consider real estate. The value of real estate in almost every city of this country is up? Rentals in almost every city are up? So, what's going on? How can everything be up? Somewhere, something is inflated. Perhaps it's a bubble. Which one will burst first, how much will it burst, nobody knows. So, everybody is trying to come up with a plan. So, if you had to invest 1 lakh rupees this year, what should be the approach?
So, first, let's see what we got from Feroze Azeez ji. This is for conservative investors. He says that out of 10 lakhs, you should keep 6 lakhs in equity. But even that, only and only in large caps. Meaning, the biggest companies in India. Now, why is he giving this advice? Because large-cap companies do not go through as many ups and downs as mid-cap or small-cap companies do. So, if God forbid, the market goes down, crashes, or there's any instability, large-cap companies will not fall as much as mid-cap or small-cap will. And then he has some mutual fund recommendations as well: Quant Large Cap, SBI Large or Mid Cap, HDFC Flexi Cap, or Kotak Multicap. So, these are his recommendations. Then he says, put 3 lakhs in debt funds and 1 lakh in Gold ETF. So, it's a very balanced approach. So, which debt funds does he recommend? ICICI Prudential Nifty SDL December 2026 Index Fund or Kotak Nifty SDL Plus AAA PSU Bond July 2028. By the way, these are all bonds which are like fixed deposits. So, think of them as fixed deposits. The only difference is that instead of putting your money in a bank, you would be giving it out either to the government, or to a corporate, or to a public service unit or entity. So, you get a fixed rate of return, usually higher than an FD. And that's why they are preferred. SBI Arbitrage Fund if you are in a high tax bracket. Gold ETF, 1 lakh. There are many Gold ETFs. Nippon Gold Savings Fund, you can take that. Gold Bees, you can take that. There are many SBI Gold ETFs.
If you are in moderate risk, meaning in the middle risk. Then the recommendation is that you put 7 lakhs in equity. 2 lakhs in debt funds, still 1 lakh in Gold ETF. Out of the 7 lakhs in equity, the recommendation is that 50-55% in large caps, so mostly in large caps. About 20-25% in mid-caps, and the rest can be put in small caps. What are the recommendations for the mutual funds? DSP Large and Mid Cap, Kotak Multicap, Invesco India, HDFC Flexi Cap, Kotak Midcap, ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield, and debt funds, Gold ETFs. Recommendations here are HDFC Nifty GSec July 2031 Index Fund. These are government securities. Again, technical, no need to delve too deep into it. Think of them as fixed deposits. But the difference is that you are not putting your money in a bank. You are actually lending to the government. Quite crazy, right? That the government also borrows from us, but it does. And that is the way that it works. ICICI Prudential Nifty GSec December 2030 Index Fund or SBI's Arbitrage Fund if you are in the highest tax bracket.
If you are an aggressive investor, then you are ready to take risks, and you are perhaps willing to go the extra mile. Put 8 lakhs in equity. 1 lakh in debt mutual funds, and 1 lakh in Gold ETF. What is noticeable for me is that you changed the ratio of equity and debt, but the Gold ETF remained at 10%. Which is again the recommendation I have always made that gold is an asset that should always be 5-10%. Of course, it can be more. And many people will say, "Seeing so much performance, it should have been more." But I would still say 5 to 10% is the right range. So, if you are putting 8 lakhs in equity, diversify. Again, 50-55% large cap, 20-25% mid-cap, rest small-cap. Quant Large Cap, SBI's Large and Mid Cap, Canara Robeco's Multicap, Invesco's Small Cap, HDFC's Flexi Cap, Kotak's Midcap, ICICI Prudential's Focused Equity. And if you are looking at debt funds or Gold ETFs, then in debt funds, Axis GSec IBX GSec July 2034 Debt Index Fund or HDFC Nifty GSec June 2036 Index Fund, or SBI's Arbitrage Fund. So, these are Feroze Azeez ji's recommendations if you have to invest 1 lakh, or 10 lakh, or 1 crore, whatever the amount.
Then let's see what Inderbir Singh Jolly ji says. He has a different approach. So, if you invest 1 lakh as a conservative investor, he is saying put 3 lakhs in equity, which is almost all large cap. Put 3 lakhs in hybrid, which is a combination of equity and debt. And then put 4 lakhs in debt funds. He is conservative, not recommending gold. Very interesting. So, in equity, large cap, he is recommending Nippon Large Cap or HDFC's Large Cap Mutual Fund. In hybrid, HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund or SBI's Balanced Advantage Fund. And debt funds, the 4 lakhs, will have Kotak Income Plus Arbitrage Omni FoF, meaning Fund of Funds, or ICICI Prudential's Arbitrage Fund. These are the options.
Okay, medium or moderate risk if you have. Then he is saying put 5 lakhs in equity, 2 lakhs in hybrid, 2 lakhs in debt, and 1 lakh in REITs. What is REIT? Real Estate Investment Trust, which is essentially investing in real estate, but you are not buying land. You are buying stocks of real estate companies, which are real estate developers, and they provide you a yield or a return from their rental income. So, if you have to put 5 lakhs in equity, then Nippon Large Cap or HDFC Flexi Cap. In hybrid, ICICI Equity and Debt Fund or HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund. In debt funds, Kotak Income Plus Arbitrage Omni FoF, ICICI Arbitrage Fund. REITs, 1 lakh. I think there are four REITs in India now, there were three before. So, you can take any of those four. I will not make a recommendation because I am not qualified for it. But when you look at the numbers, it will be very obvious which one to take if you want to take one.
If you are an aggressive investor, then Jolly ji's recommendation is to put 6 lakhs in equity. 1.5 lakhs in hybrid, 1 lakh in debt, and 1.5 lakhs in gold and silver. So, this is the only place where he recommends gold or silver for the first time. Again, in the form of ETFs, not physical. So, HDFC Flexi Cap Fund, Invesco India Mid Cap Fund, Bandhan Small Cap Fund, Mirae Asset Metal ETF. These are his recommendations for the equity investment of 6 lakhs. And he is saying that Metal ETF is a tactical allocation with exposure to the metals cycle, reflecting constrained global supply and rising demand. So, his prediction is that in 2026, metals are a very interesting category because demand is rising a lot, supply is constrained. So, because of that, metal companies may perform or outperform the index, and that's why you could invest in them. Hybrid: ICICI Prudential Equity and Debt Fund or Edelweiss's Aggressive Hybrid Fund. Debt funds: same Kotak Income Plus Arbitrage Omni FoF or ICICI Prudential's Arbitrage Fund. Gold Silver ETF, 1.5 lakhs.
Then let's see what Chanchal Agarwal ji says. If you are a conservative investor, he says put 4 lakhs in equity, 5 lakhs in debt, and 1 lakh in gold. So, he is actually, if I may say, from the three, the most pessimistic, maybe the most realistic in the way that the markets are shaping up. SBI Focused Fund, ICICI Prudential Large Cap Fund, or Canara Robeco Large and Mid Cap. In debt, he would say, fixed deposits, wow, fixed deposits directly, or highly rated bonds that you have, or ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund. For gold, Nippon Gold Savings Fund.
If you are in moderate risk, then equity 6 lakhs, debt 3 lakhs, and gold 1 lakh. In equity, Invesco India Large and Mid Cap, Parag Parikh's Flexi Cap, or Nippon India's Growth Mid Cap. If you do debt, 3 lakhs, then ICICI Prudential Short Term, or Axis Strategic Bond, or direct bonds. And for gold, same Nippon Gold Savings Fund.
If you are an aggressive investor, then equity 5 lakhs, debt 1.5 lakhs, and gold 1 lakh. In equity, SBI Focused, or Nippon India's Growth Mid Cap, or Bandhan's Small Cap. In debt, direct bonds or credit theme bonds. And in gold, Nippon Gold Savings Fund.
They also have guidance on how to invest in lumpsum, because often people get a bit confused about lumpsum, thinking, "Should I put all the money in now? Timing the market. The market is very high now. The market is very low." And there is no way to time the market. There is no person who can time the market. And all three have the same recommendation, which I quite like. They are saying that whenever you have to invest a lumpsum, this is the same thing that we had made a lumpsum video about a long time ago: invest 25% now. So, suppose you have 100 rupees to invest as a lumpsum, invest 25 rupees right now, whatever the market is, up or down, whatever it is. And the remaining 75, break it into installments of 6 to 12 months. So, it's up to you how long you want to prolong it, you can do it for 6 months, or go up to 12 months. So, start an SIP for that. So, what happens with an SIP is that on that date of the month, whether the market is up or down, you will buy. So, if the market is very high, you will buy less. If the market is down, you will buy more. And over a period of time, it will become a cost average. So, that's why an SIP or installments are recommended. So, 25% now, and then the remaining 75 split into six to 12 installments.
Finally, there is a note which is very important, and I feel that that is perhaps the crux of everything. It says high volatility, meaning a lot of ups and downs, is expected in silver and gold in the near term. So, please expect a lot of ups and downs in gold and silver. So, if you invest in them, then prefer this to be a decade-long investment. So, please invest with a 10-year investment horizon only. Not that you sell and exit within a year.
In addition to this, a very important disclaimer. Whatever money you need within three years from a money perspective. So, let's say, I recently received an email from someone who is in her job and saving for her MBA. And it's 2025. She wants to start an MBA in 2027. So, two years later. In fact, almost 1.5 years later, because it's April 2027, so how much time is left? Where should I invest? And my recommendation was very clear: do not invest in equity. If you need any investment guaranteed within three years, because you know that you will have an expense. Whether it's for education, or for a house, marriage, children's education, any other reason. Please, please only invest in debt mutual funds. Because you will get that fixed rate of return. And it will be predictable. You will not play with your money due to those ups and downs. So, any money that you need within three years, and you know how much you will need, please put it only in a debt mutual fund, irrespective of your risk profile. So, that's number one.
Number two, anywhere you invest in small-cap or mid-cap, please keep a horizon of at least 5 to 10 years. Because when markets correct or go down, small-cap and mid-cap fall the most. And at that point, many people sell out of fear and sell at a loss. Don't make that mistake. It is almost written that in the next three years, small-cap and mid-cap will correct, meaning go down. And that could be a great opportunity for you to buy good quality small-caps. If you have done an SIP. So, if you look at Nippon India's Small Cap, it has delivered crazy returns over the last several years. But only if people have stuck it out. If you start selling at every year's ups and downs, you will not be able to earn the returns that a good fund manager can give you after years of hard work. So, please, please remain invested.
Personally, how am I investing my money in 2026? I would love to share that with you. Out of the 100 rupees that I plan to invest, I will put about 30 rupees in the US market. That need not be directly. It can be indirectly as well, through funds that exist in India that invest in the US market, or directly in the US market. Around 40% I will put in the Indian market, and its split will be 50% large cap, 25% mid-cap, 25% small-cap. Of the remaining 30%, 10% will continue to be my crypto. I do not have a direct exposure to gold. But Ruchi, my wife, she buys gold regularly every month. She buys digital gold. So, she has an SIP running. So, through that, about 7% of our allocation is in gold. And then the remaining are private investments, which are my private startups. At the end of the year, I will talk about this year's performance, because every year I give an assessment of my portfolio: where how much money is stuck, or invested, and how much return it has generated. So, that you get a sense of wow, 2025 has been. But in 2026, this is roughly the plan. I hope this gives you clarity on how to invest your money in 2026. Whether it's an SIP, or a lumpsum, the approach remains the same. First, identify yourself. Are you conservative, moderate risk, or aggressive? And then split your money accordingly. This is Gurubik. Signing off.
My latest book, "Beyond the Syllabus," is written only for teenagers because they need their own space. It covers the journey from being a child to becoming an adult. Perhaps in this journey, many things are not found as they need them. This book is for them, for their journey, something that school will never teach you, beyond the syllabus.