Transcription
It's always a pleasure to be here. So, welcome everyone out there. So, it's really nice that you join us here at that live event. It's more fun to do this live. So, thanks for being with us here tonight, at least, um, from here, from the European German perspective.
Yeah, as Richard introduced, uh, I will keep, uh, the continuity, or we'll keep the cycle on Bitcoin for our financial summit here, as we always, um, um, do in the early beginning of each year. I started five years ago, I think, at our first, uh, cycles summit, um, to reveal, um, uh, a cyclic pattern on Bitcoin, and it works since then. So, I mean, never change a running system. So, I will take you through the cycles in regards to Bitcoin. I will show you what are the important cycles, how did it evolve over the past years, and for sure, where we are in that cycle today, and what that means for 2026, uh, looking into Bitcoin ahead. I mean, that's then the final question. So, this is what I will show you during the next 30 minutes by saying that, I mean, at the end, you will get the current picture. But I think this is a real story about the importance of cycle analysis because it's much more if you follow also this, the the story I want to, uh, tell you over the next 15 to 20 minutes, how this all came together. And I mean, we now have proof that that, uh, Bitcoin dance, how I will call it, or the, uh, crypto clock, um, is really ticking. So, uh, we will not change that, and and let me guide you through the Bitcoin dance.
So, um, as said, that, so I think Richard just dropped me a short note. Uh, audio, video, everything is fine, otherwise, please, >> Everything is good. Lars is coming through great. >> Everything is great. Okay. Okay. So, otherwise, please, please let me know. I will just, just continue now. Yeah. Talking about, um, Bitcoin. Now, I mean, before we start, yeah, everything here is education. It's pure data-driven. It's cycle analysis. Just because the Bitcoin dance worked for the previous five years, this does not mean that it would work out in 2026. Yeah. So, just consider this, everything you do, uh, you will take your risk assessment on your own. This is pure education, cycle analysis from our perspective. No recommendation at all, just to be clear with that upfront.
All right, before we dive into the cycles, I mean, what's really interesting if you observe Bitcoin from 2010, so the previous 15 years, we have seen a lot of parabolic moves in Bitcoin. So, if you, uh, go down and slice down, uh, the charts, so going from cents to to, uh, 20 US dollar and so forth. So, you see it on on the charts here. So, every 5 years, uh, we had a parabolic move in Bitcoin. Quite now, we are surprised what happens to silver, um, or gold, but we have seen this regularly in Bitcoin. And those parabolic moves are for sure important in regards to the timing. So, I mean, if you are on the right side, on the left side, yeah, you, you can make a fortune out of that. Um, but after those parabolic moves, and that's also part of the Bitcoin dance. Yeah. What goes up must come down. There's a favorite song on that. So, and every since we saw those parabolic moves, every time we also saw it coming down by 70 to 80%. Um, in the history. So, said that, um, now it is about timing because you want to be on the right side of that parabolic move. Yeah. And that's that's all about timing.
So, um, and assume 2025. So, I mean, let's assume what was the hype in 2025. Here are just some headlines, uh, from, uh, famous, uh, forecasters, uh, out there. If, if it's been Kathy Wood, yeah, Bitcoin 1 million, Michael Saylor, 800K, Robert Kiyosaki, 250K, uh, Elon Musk, much bullish, and even some celebrities here. Met Damon on the Crypto.com advisor, "To the moon." So, yeah, it's that was the theme 2025. Um, and think about everyone who invested in Bitcoin 2025, almost everyone is now sitting on a loss. So, said that, where do you think we are in the current move, or maybe the current, not really parabolic, but the current high, we the all-time high we made in 2025, although everyone who entered this last year again is sitting on a loss. So, it's, it's quite important in regards to timing if you are more on the left side or the right side of those extreme moves. And that's why cycles now come into play because cycles can help us to identify where we are on those extreme moves we we might see in those assets.
So, getting into the cycle analysis of that topic. So, you might be aware that I'm very often talking about the nominal 200-day cycle in Bitcoin, which is driving almost all of those parabolic or extreme up moves to new all-time highs in the past. So, and even that's not enough on its own. There is a second pattern which I call the pattern of five and the pattern of three. um, and a special, um, theme on that related to the 200-day cycle, and this is what I revealed at our first conference. So, let's go quickly again, just as a primer for everyone who is new to that cycle analysis. Let's quickly run through that analysis why those cycles and that pattern is important, and that re, then let's review what happened in the previous years before we come to the current point of time.
All right. So, as I said, I mean, the journey began 2020. I've, I've done the research 2020. So, and even though most of you are just interested in the current analysis, but in regards to cycle analysis, I think this is a picture-perfect example. If you really dig into more complex cycle analysis, the rhythm of an asset, the patterns around cycles in a specific asset, if you invest in that analysis, which I did 2020, and then put this, uh, in front of your your eyes, 2021, uh, this is now we have now proof, uh, what happens afterwards. So, let's get back to that story which I first shared here 2021 in in our video session here.
So, just quickly, what, what we're doing here for everyone who's new to cycle analysis, we're putting, uh, the price chart, yeah, which is seen here in dark blue, on our cycle analyzer screen. Then we do a spectrum analysis, which you see here in the bottom right, just as an extract. And the spectrum then reveals what is the dominant cycle at that current point in time. So, here it's just showcasing early 2013. Yeah, where the blue, um, where the blue line, uh, just ends. So, that's the last price point here, early 2013. Um, and the spectrum showed us a cycle here with a length around 200 something, or in specific, 231 days. And that cycle is then overlaid, which you see here in purple, on that price chart, which is the basic, simple, dynamic time cycle analysis we are doing here at the foundation. And every member can do with the toolset we are providing to everyone for free. So, what you see here on the screen is available to everyone as a member of the foundation to do that analysis. So, no fancy black box analysis. This is what we're doing here every week in every analysis and every show we are doing here. So, there was a 231-day cycle at that current point in time. Right? So, you see it 2013, and projecting into a possible, um, upswing here into May 2013. Yeah. So, that's how we read that analysis. We read that analysis by using, or by going to the next possible cycle top or cycle bottom which appears. And that's the next cycle top is May 2013, according to that cycle analysis.
No fast forward. So, just keep in mind, we had a price about 15, and had our cycle projection here. So, let's go fast forward in time. So, the light blue data now shows what happens after the fact. So, it's the same cycle analysis. Yeah. So, the cycle analysis is kept the same. It's the same 231-day cycle. You see that the price chart is just skewed because we had a big up run from 15 to 225. So, this was an extreme parabolic up move. And you see here that cycle guided us the way up into that, um, topping situation here 2013.
So, now let's fast forward through those examples here. So, not only the, uh, the possible top here, also the bottoming. So, fast forward into the period then after that top happened here, we are now in July, late summer, at 2013. You see we have a clear cycle peak again, and 221. And that's the dynamic part of cycle analysis. So, that cycle does not stay constant or static over time. That's also always important to keep in mind when I talk about the nominal 200-day cycle. It does not mean there is a static 200-day cycle from 2021 running into 2027. That's not the case. The nominal cycle just means there is always, um, around 200 days. So, it could be 180, 221, something like that. And you need to have the dynamic time cycle analysis updated, um, day by day, week by week. Yeah. To follow the dynamic approach of that cycle.
So, um, and I mean, that was the journey here. Yeah. I'm just showing you before I came to the conclusion of the 200-day cycle. So, going back to 2013, just revealed, okay, that cycle was 231. Now, going forward into July 2013. Okay, that cycle is 221, or 230, 31, 221. So, again, similar cycle. Okay, so, and this cycle then also projected an upcoming top here end of 2013. So, let's move fast forward in time. See what happened. Yeah, you see what happened to the price scale also. Uh, so, we are running from 140 in that case to over $1,000, uh, US for the Bitcoin price. And you see here the timing, just going forth and back. So, the cycle is kept the same. Yeah. What's coming in now is the out-of-sample analysis into that projected top here. Um, so, I mean, it couldn't not have been better in regards to the timing. And again, you see the cycle was detected right before the parabolic up move. So, I mean, price-wise from 140 to 1,000, there's a ratio of close to 10, and the time cycle was quite clear, um, before that move happened. Not only that, also the move down followed clearly the 200-day cycle here.
So, let's go forward in time. So, we can play this a long time. So, here now 2017, same approach. Let's put on our cycle scanner. Let's do the same standard analysis. So, nothing special here. So, we just see, um, in what is it here? June 2017. Have a look at the lower right. Yeah, the, uh, cycle scanner showed us in this case here a dominant cycle of 180 days. So, that 180-day cycle is here now shown at the bottom. Yeah, which is, where we are in that cycle at the point of the analysis, suggesting a possible upswing here into end of 2017. So, let's move forward in time. So, you see everything is kept out of sample here. So, the light blue data is out of sample. The cycle projection has been kept static. So, that next potential top of the 200-day cycle, uh, gave the exact timing going from now 2,000 US to 20K. So, again, yeah, a move of a multiply of 10x to the price, clearly shown by a 180-day cycle, and it was clear the dominant cycle.
So, we can continue now that road, moving into 2021. Yeah, doing the same analysis. We are at September, late September 2020. Uh, the lower right reveals, uh, the clear cycle in that case of 193 days. So, I just tell you that that you are aware of that is a dynamic cycle. Um, October 2020, um, suggesting the next cyclic top here coming in early 2021. Um, and let's move forward in time here. So, this is what happened afterwards. And here we had the case from 10K. Yeah. And it went up to the cycle top to 60K with the cycle with a length of 193 days. So, the story I just want to tell you here, and this was then after that point in time, I started to see, okay, there's not only a 200-day cycle, um, variable between 180 to 220 days, that cycle is clearly visible before those important price moves happened. So, at each parabolic up move, those cycles have been clearly visible one year before that move, pointing to the possible next high of that. So, that's, that's a fascinating journey anyhow, that you find that cycle with that precision in every all-time high, parabolic moves being present ahead of time, clearly in the spectrum.
So, so that led me to the to the summary of, okay, there's always a nominal 200-day cycle which is important, which is important in the rhythm, in the dance of the Bitcoin price. Okay, I hope you, you got that, um, first, um, summary of that. Uh, so, as said, clearly before each of those parabolic moves, uh, there is a clear pattern. So, now the second fascinating journey and and story, uh, I want to tell you here, it's not just the 200-day cycle. I mean, that was now really, really, um, even fascinating, uh, on my own. So, once I went back and analyzed every chunk of those, uh, new all-time high, a new parabolic move, the 200-day cycle, and had a closer look at how the pattern of that 200-day cycle looked before that up move, and how it looked after that up move, and have there been, yeah, some some similar behaviors around the 200-day cycle. So, not just alone looking at a spectrum and always finding a 200-day cycle. So, that was then the second part of that, yeah, call it detective journey or cycle analyst journey. Um, and I will also reveal that again quickly with you, uh, because it's also important before we do the final conclusion on on that.
So, um, let's get back to the charts. So, here you see the 200-day cycle on the left-hand side, um, running in the final top here at, um, see here, August or late 2013. Yeah. And then if I count back, uh, I've seen that it was the fifth repetition of this nominal 200-day cycle, always led to the final top of that parabolic up move. So, Bitcoin continued to move up until it reached the fifth iteration of the 200 nominal day cycle. So, then the parabolic move came to an end. And not only that, if I then counted forward after that final top, which which is the alignment here also to the right, so late 2013, you can count then three repetitions of the bottom phase. So, one, two, three, until Bitcoin reached its final low. So, it, it has then really, uh, given back all all the price, or the, the 70 to 80% uh, draw down was seen in those three repetitions. After those three repetitions, the Bitcoin price started to rise again.
So, and now let's move forward in time. So, this was 2013, 2015. So, then you, you just can now move forward in time. So, as we have seen the low, yeah, here at the third repetition, guess what happened afterwards. Start to count again, just now the tops, now of the cycle. One, two, three, four, five, boom. At the fifth repetition of that cycle, the Bitcoin price reached another, not just an all-time high, another parabolic up move here from 200 something to 16, 17K in that point. And I mean, look how precise that timing is. And I showed you here that is an out-of-sample forecast one year in advance of that cycle. So, again, fifth repetition.
So, let's, let's look forward. Let's use this top here to the left. So, here we are now in 2017. Let's count now three repetitions, um, of the bottoming cycle. One, two, three, 2019. Yeah, the same pattern. And we see Bitcoin reached the bottom. It has now recovered 70% to that point in time and started to move up exactly at, from a timing perspective, after we had the third repetition of the bottom in. So, now I think you, you see the pattern, right? So, we can now continue, um, and as, as we have seen now the third bottom here at, uh, early 2019, we can then start to count the next, one, two, three, four, fifth repetition. I mean, and at that point in time, that was, this was the presentation early 2020, January 2021. Yeah, you see it here. So, that was the end of my analysis. So, the detective journey. So, this was the first real out-of-sample forecast which I made here in public, um, at our first FSC conference here, revealing this count with the count of five to the upside, count of three, uh, to the bottom, um, phase, and the nominal cycle of 200 playing then the dominant role. And again, at that point in time, nobody was aware of if this cycle pattern and the nominal cycle will play out.
So, now let's quickly run through the first public presentation of that. So, the, the past five years, how, um, that cycle and that prediction worked out, right? Um, and then I will not longer, uh, waste your time and get to the current analysis. So, this was the, um, first presentation here we did 2021, and as you have seen, it was predicted the fifth repetition to come to an end at that point here, uh, late summer or October 2021. Um, and I mean, we all know what happened. It called the top. We dropped 80% as predicted. Uh, we had three cycle repetitions. So, what happened afterwards? Uh, we, we, we now have seen, um, we just needed to wait, uh, until we had the, let's see here. So, first low, second low, third low. So, in 2023, that was our financial forecast 2023, exactly at that price point. Uh, we came out, and I think that was the $1 million question at that time. All Bitcoin investors had a big headache because price was going from 60, 65 down to down to 17, 18. I mean, remember if ourselves would have gotten into that at 17K. So, but I mean, we have been here at the foundation early 2023, um, and told everyone the last chance to get in, to get the next train, uh, until the next, um, theme of Bitcoin will start, is until May. Then the next upswing phase will start, right? So, that was the forecast purely based on the 200-day nominal cycle model. So, here you see it on a price chart. That was our live, uh, presentation. We did here 2023. I mean, we all know what happened to Bitcoin at that point in time. Uh, we went up, and in 2024, we have been here, uh, showcasing that cycle forecast. So, that was early 2024, and I will pause here for a second because this was now revealing what we all know about. So, early 2024, Bitcoin was at 50K. So, think about, we all already made over 100% coming from 18, 18K here to 50K. And now the question at that point in time was also, okay, where will Bitcoin continue? We laid out that chart here with a dominant 200-day cycle, which was still present, and just counted in the future. I mean, what's now interesting here on that chart, look where the five is shown up. So, the prediction was, okay, uh, we are still in the summer period, summer will continue somewhere into, yeah, the number five, it's even off the chart here at that point in time, late 2025. So, that upswing cycle will continue to somewhere late 2025. That was our basic projection beginning 2024, based on what we have learned on the dominant cycle.
So, um, I mean, so that was just, okay, a quick primer, a quick summary where we are coming from, 200-day cycle, pattern of three, pattern of five. So, based on that, we called the top 2021, we called the bottom, uh, we projected the top also coming into late 2025. So, now let's discuss where we are today. Right. So, using, using the same knowledge, so never change a running system. So, I mean, let's now summarize where we are looking at the Bitcoin price today. So, said that, um, quickly going over four important topics. So, first, and that's also thanks to Michael Howell, we now are aware of that Bitcoin has a 30% correlation to global liquidity. Yeah, that's what, uh, Michael showed us and is revealing. And also global liquidity, um, is synced onto a dominant cycle. So, I will not go into the depth here. I will just, um, make the recommendation, view the work of Michael Howell regards to Bitcoin. What we see here is, and it's his chart. So, that the global liquidity cycle is peaking in late 2025. So, keep that in mind. So, the global liquidity cycle has a 40% correlation on the impact on the Bitcoin price. This global liquidity cycle has now also peaked in late 2025. So, that's what we need to take into consideration if we look into the future. So, from this point now, global liquidity, at least for the momentum of global liquidity, according to that cycle, is expected to move downwards, which will have a big impact on the price of Bitcoin due to the correlation on global liquidity. So, that's also a cycle which needs to be taken on top, yeah, of the pattern of three and five. So, that global liquidity cycle is now negative for Bitcoin.
Another important cycle everyone is looking is the halving cycle. Yeah. Which is, it's not really four years because it's not really on time. It's more on the blockchain, but it's roughly four years. Uh, and the halving cycle, and that's the interesting part of the halving cycle. If you look at the previous halving cycles, um, always peaked after 400 to 500 days after the halving event. Yeah. So, the halving event here starts at the zero, and then just counting the days, and then you can see in those different colors, uh, how Bitcoin behaved after the halving cycle occurred. So, uh, and the, the, the upswing, the major upswing, um, is getting into the extreme around 400 to 500 days after the halving. So, you can see color, this was the 212, the blue one, uh, the green one is the 216 halving, the red one is the 2020, and we are now in the latest halving cycle, started 2024, which still continues to 2028. So, that cycle has also reached its peak. Yeah. So, the halving cycle is also not in favor of Bitcoin going forward. We have passed that 500 days period already. So, the halving cycle is also not positive on Bitcoin until 2028. Yeah. So, it's always also a negative impact from a cyclic perspective. So, the halving cycle on Bitcoin.
All right. So, let's also keep that in mind and on top on the cycle analysis now following. So, now let's look into the current status quo of cycles and the pattern in Bitcoin today. Yeah. Before we come to a conclusion here. So, um, we always had in mind the pattern of five, the pattern of three. Yeah. So, if you want to remember this with some music themes, the pattern of five is "Fly me to the moon," and the count of three is "The road to hell." Yeah. And what goes up must come down. So, if you just remember those three things, "Fly me to the moon," "Road to hell," count to five, count to three, nominal days, 200 days. So, you have everything, uh, what you need to remember after that session. Okay, so all about timing. Um, by the way, I will invite you, please join our weekly Cycles TV series where, uh, Richard, Jake, myself are out there every week, Monday, Tuesday, uh, Wednesday. I was out there calling for that special situation here once we pass those 115, 120. And so, it's always good to be live with us to get the latest updates here.
But, um, where are we in that cycle? So, this is today's analysis, early 2026. Yeah, I'll show you. This is the, the cycle scanner, how it looks today or yesterday with the latest price. So, we have seen, uh, the price drop here, late 2025. Just remember, maybe you had this in mind, early 2024, we showed you that the fifth iteration of that cycle will come up late 2025. You might have that picture in mind from the video 5 minutes ago, right? So, and it was just perfect coming in here late 2025. So, no surprise for us from a cyclic perspective. And price now dropped into that period. So, um, guess what? Look at the spectrum. Um, and this is not an, an, an all-time analysis. This is not the current analysis. Uh, we see a clear peak here at the 200 days mark. So, even today, after 5 years, that cycle is still visible, quite dominant in the spectrum seen here. Um, I mean, we have two other cycles with the length of 230 and 275. Yeah. From a short-term daily perspective, also need to be taken into account. But we know from previous analysis and the, the dance of Bitcoin, that the 200-day cycle is the most important cycle in the past. So, even though in the current analysis, it's just ranked as the, um, by our AI algorithm, it's, it's ranked as the second important cycle. From the knowledge of the pattern and the Bitcoin dance of the past, we are aware of that. It is, even though from an all-time perspective, the 200-day cycle, it's the most important cycle before we bring in the other cycles. So, uh, this is what the spectrum analysis looks today for every one of us. Again, nothing special here. This is the standard situation if you would look at our, um, cycle analyzer from the membership perspective. And let's bring in the 200-day cycle here. Right.
So, um, here we have, uh, that chart, just for fun, we can count back. So, here at that top, I hope you can see it. So, this would be the five, the four, the three, uh, the two, the one. So, here we started here, everything started, um, and here was the third repetition of the low. So, one, two, three to the low. Whoops. One, two, three, four, five to the top. So, do you see the precision of that 200-day cycle? Five years after I introduced that, five years, I mean, we have now five years after I showed this to you. Um, and this is the precision, the precision of the 200-day cycle today. I mean, come on. Michael Saylor, are you listening? Elon Musk, are you listening? Kathy Wood, are you with us? I would recommend, watch this show. I would give you even a private session. I, I don't know if you're here, maybe leave a comment in the chat notes. I think this is important for you all before you go out and make this, uh, public announcement about your price projections here. But okay, back to work.
Um, here we are with the prediction now. So, I think you can make now the conclusion on your own. If this was the fifth repetition of the top, it tells us that the major top, the all-time high was in for a longer time to come. So, what we see now is this was the first bottom, which again, perfect timing into the 200-day cycle bottom here. So, not just the top, that bottom was really nice. And now we need to count forward, one, two, three. So, that's the projection here. And I mean, sorry if you want to hear a different story, but the low, if that pattern repeats, it's early 2027. So, according to that, a new winter season has started for Bitcoin with the top in 2025, and now 2026 has not a nice picture for Bitcoin into early 2027. But I mean, I would not be last if I would not put something on top of that analysis. Let's tweak it a little bit further. And you might remember there have been two other cycles in the spectrum currently. Yeah. If you keep that in mind, I showed you 200, 230, 275 at the current point of the analysis. So, let's even bring in those cycles and see if the picture will change or if it will not change. Let's see.
I mean, let's also bring in the other cycles. Now, um, but before doing that, let's put another, um, squeeze, not not squeeze, but something on the table here. So, I have now aggregated that data, uh, to have one bar aggregated into four bars. So, we are not now, we are not dealing about daily data. We are also not dealing, uh, with weekly data. We are dealing with one price point at that chart aggregates four days into one. Right? It's, it's just, we have a different time perspective on the same data set. Nothing more. Uh, it's just important that you are aware how the numbers need to be read here. Um, going into the spectrum, here are our three cycles. So, from a daily perspective, you have in mind. So, these are the 200, 230, 275, and now in this aggregated view, uh, they have a different length at 69, 58. Um, and, uh, yeah, also the, here's the 50, the 54 days aggregated cycle. So, multiply 50 by four, right, and you will get to the 200-day cycle. So, let's put on now those three cycles and, and finally, you see here is another big cycle showing up here, and it's only visible if we have that aggregated view at 39, 39, uh, aggregated four days bar. So, it's the cycle here on top. So, let's now see how the picture will look if we put those three cycles, um, as an composite cycle on that spectrum here, uh, on the overlay here. So, maybe you need to pause in the video. So, I will not pause here in the live session, but, um, I will, I will recommend if you revisit that video, you can pause at that screen here for a moment because there's an underlying higher-level cycle becoming visible, right? You see it here. So, it looks like those three different cycles, they synchronize their cycle top at the fourth and fifth iteration. So, that's why they, they really, the amplitude stacks up because the cycle top all synchronize at those fourth and fifth repetition. The other repetitions, they, they even out, um, themselves. So, that's why we see these, this bottom empiric. But once they really synchronize their tops, yeah, when they really amplify each other, and from a timing perspective, they all top out at the same point, even though they are different cycles. Yeah, that's why we see that aggregated cycle. And that's not enough. Let's put this on the whole period of the Bitcoin history. And I will, I will come to an end, ju, just in one or two minutes, but this is just so beautiful, and this is real cycle analysis at work.
So, going back now to 2010, even today, today you see that overlay in that case, I've just used two cycles out of that, not make it too complicated, but you see now how those two cycles amplify. So, it looks like one cycle, right? If you look at the composite here, it mainly looks like this is one cycle, isn't it? No, it's not. This is the composite of two cycles. What we see here at the bottom. The beauty is just that at some points in time, they synchronize their tops. Yeah. So, when they really stack out, at at some points, um, they flatten out each other, and then they synchronize again their tops. Um, and now, I mean, what do you see here? What do you see here? I will show it to you. So, you can put numbers on when those, and this is a composite cycle. This is not one nominal 200-day cycle. This is a composite cycle of two cycles. Yeah. Uh, just put numbers on when those cycles synchronize their tops. And you see here at the points when those really synchronize their tops, those parabolic moves have come to an end. Then it flattens out. Yeah. We have three bottoms of that composite cycle. It really flattens out the curve, and then they start to synchronize their timing. And once, uh, they reach the fifth iteration, they're coming at the top. So, the count of five is also visible here. Not one cycle, not one cycle, this is a composite cycle. And it's the same now with with those three cycles. So, this pattern is also visible if you use the three most dominant cycles over the period of Bitcoin, and also here again, it was shown here. So, it was early 2025, by the way, uh, when I made that, uh, that chart here, um, in early 2025, you've seen that we have passed count number four, um, and I've shown early 2025 that count number four is around the corner for summer 2024, according to that chart, and again, that Bitcoin dance worked out quite beautiful. Um, and here the last chart now, the aggregated view of all those three cycles here on the top. So, this is an also a new chart here, and even the longest cycle with the aggregated 337 for four bars, and those three cycles just on top here. So, you see how they are synchronized their tops, and they synchronized their bottoms here. Um, I've shown you all the previous story about it, and you see where we are now here in late 2025. You know the story. I've shown you also the isolated 200-day cycle, uh, which is now showing a cyclic synchronization into a major bottom then early 2027.
All right. I mean, that was the forecast. Um, my personal opinion is, and I will end with that and then get back to you, Richard. My just my personal opinion is that, um, Bitcoin has been eaten up now. So, I don't know if there will ever be another meaningful cycle showing up 2027. So, we all know that, uh, Bitcoin in the past two to three years, um, has come from an alternative, alternative asset into a high risk-on asset, which now correlates with major risk markets and the equity, uh, tech sector since two or three years. Um, and by the way, Bitcoin is now managed, uh, due to ETFs, and the big Wall Street firms. I mean, and that's just, um, a theme here at the bottom. What we know called crypto will just be another part of the financial system, priced, hedged, and risk-managed like everything else. It's a Bloomberg article here, late 2025. And I think that resonates with my feeling. I mean, the original idea of Bitcoin and decentralized finance and bringing in another finance system, um, is not there anymore. So, Bitcoin has been eaten up by Wall Street. It's just priced via ETFs. The Bitcoin story has come to an end, at least end of 2025, and I'm quite skeptical if a new theme will show up 2027. Uh, stable accounts, stable coins are around the corner in the crypto area, and I don't know if Bitcoin will play a prominent role here. So, that said, um, that was just my personal opinion on that, and I think, uh, we have a winter period in front of us regarding to the cycle analysis on Bitcoin. As said, if this will repeat in 2026, I don't know. Nobody knows. This is just pure data-driven cycle analysis.
So, thank you everyone. Um, I hope you're still following, and Richard, if there are questions, uh, I'm happy to discuss it. Thank you, Lars. Thanks for an outstanding presentation. Every, you know, every time I see it, especially that, um, the two cycles added together, it just begs the question that, like, I just love that, right? So, and, uh, I really think we should do more of that. So, you know, how, and have you looked for this 5-3 pattern in any other assets? >> Yeah, I, I, I tried partially. So, I, I've not, not analyzed every, every asset class, but it, think I think it's special to Bitcoin, to be honest. I've not found that similar pattern in in other assets. So, not, not the 5 to 3, but, but, but I think, um, what I found is there are often repetitions of a dominant cycle before an important period, but if it's three, if it's five, I think there is no common rule on that, or even there's further research required. Quite. >> 5-3 is, uh, very evocative of the Elliot Wave and Fibonacci. Yeah. >> Um, paradigms. Have you given much thought to those? >> Um, partially, um, because I think the, the Elliot Wave price patterns are more based on on price ranges in that pattern are not based on time, um, um, um, ranges on on those three to five. So, five waves up, three down, um, and, and not in regards to timing. So, that's why, um, and I'm not an expert in Elliot Waves. So, therefore, I've not, I've not gone into that road. So, some kind of like factoring of the cycles, right? So, you've got the, the 200-day or the 50 times 4, right? What were the other two cycles that you used there that generated >> 69, 69, um, or 200, 230 to 270 on the daily, or on the aggregated view, it was 69. >> So, it was the 230 and the 270 which generated those, you know, increasing and decreasing amplitudes that matched up with the 5-3. >> Right. Right. And that's the fascinating point, they, as at some point in time, they synchronize. Yeah. So, it's, it's like >> when you march in sync over a bridge, you, you can really destroy the bridge. So, it's like when those cycles really add up to each other, there is maybe a big event happening, and it's, it's the same. Yeah. If, if a thousand people march in rhythm over a bridge, you can really destroy the bridge. >> Uh, um, that's, that's when cycles synchronize. >> So, uh, um, a few questions. What is the anticipated date of the next high of this current 200-day cycle? >> So, we are, according to this analysis, in the crypto winter, right? But we are also >> yes >> in, uh, and I've seen it on the cycle charts too, in crypto, there is a, um, you know, significant buy signal on the daily data >> for, uh, you know, with the, uh, cycle and the, um, the cyclic RSI. >> It is, I think that 200-day cycle top goes into, I mean, it's not the exact timing, but into April and May, and this is what you will also see if you use the daily analysis. Is, um, and I, and I hear that, um, question quite often. Lars, we have a cycle bottom coming in here, with with that cycle now into an upswing period into, um, April, May. And I always say, yes, that's correct, also what you mentioned, Richard, but we need to set this into the context of the longer-term cycles really pointing down. So, I would not expect another new all-time high, for sure. There is some room, maybe, I don't know, let's go back, one 100K or so, or another 10%, whatever. But I think then the next downswing will even be higher than maybe the correction to the, or the, um, move to the upside for the next two months, maybe. So, I would be very, very careful with the possible up move, um, in Bitcoin. Mhm. And I know you showed the, um, uh, Michael Howell's global liquidity, but you also were looking at a special Bitcoin liquidity. >> Yeah, that's right. I've not shared that today. Um, >> Does it say the same thing as the global liquidity cycle, essentially? >> It is. It was so fascinating on that. I think there, there is a video if everyone reveals the, the Cycles TV Monday shows, you can search for Bitcoin. So, there is a global Bitcoin basket which Michael Howell is publishing, which makes the Bitcoin charting independent from the US dollar. So, that's quite interesting. So, using a basket of different currencies, um, and it's, and it's weighted. So, the basket is weighted, um, based on their importance to global liquidity. So, this brings out the volatility due to different currencies. We analyzed that data set. So, Michael and I looked at that data set, and we found the same 200-day cycle. So, um, it was interesting because it's, it's not from a timing perspective, it's not the same as this one here, because as it aggregates or it balances all the different currencies, um, in, in between. So, it's, >> But it's, it's the same cycle which is visible there. And on your final point, your personal opinion, it is interesting, right, that in this time, you know, we've, we've heard for a long time that Bitcoin is digital gold, but it certainly isn't behaving like gold over the past year when there have been these, you know, real existential questions about what's going on with the US dollar and the future of the US dollar, and, and gold has certainly been responding to those doubts about the viability of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, and, and Bitcoin really hasn't. >> Correct. So, um, and now stablecoins as a new theme is coming in, and it's not related to Bitcoin, but also they try to fight for the US dollar. So, stablecoins are right now mainly based on US dollars and against the, the treasuries. So, it will be a fight of stablecoins, at least in the crypto space. Um, and therefore, I think that that's what I said. Bitcoin is out of the game for decentralized finance. Um, I mean, that that meme has gone, eaten up by Wall Street. >> Very interesting. All right. Well, we did have a few questions that were slightly off-topic. You got a minute for, uh, some non-Bitcoin questions? So, um, >> I mean, I don't know if you want to get into analyzing other markets. There were quest, there were requests to analyze other markets. >> No, I think we don't have time for that, to be honest. >> Um, there was a question about what's going on with the, you know, the current solar activity and the geomagnetic disturbances. Any thoughts on that? I know it is something that you follow. >> Yeah, sure. I mean, first, I hope that I don't know who has observed that geomagnetic storm yesterday, tonight, and maybe you have seen the aurora. I mean, we, we have seen that here from Germany, >> which is really not happening very often. So, we had a solar storm two days ago, and it now have been visible. So, um, that brought that topic up. Anyhow, um, I'm still on that. Um, but it's, I mean, for timing purposes, it feels like it's, it's not exact enough. So, there is something, um, and, and we can see that cyclic behavior is also correlating a little bit to market rhythms. So, it, so it seems to influence our risk behavior. um, but the timing cannot really be used, uh, to derive entry or exit. So, that's, that's the current state of the analysis. So, it's, >> still ongoing work. >> Very good. All right. Um, let's see. If using the BTCUSD on Yahoo Finance, I cannot see an approximate 200-day cycle. What displays is 248, 139, and 113. >> So, what, what I would recommend if you look at the current data >> Were those trading days or calendar days, actually? >> Uh, calendar days. Calendar days. So, >> Calendar days. So, it includes the weekend. >> Yes, correct. Because Bitcoin is also trading over the weekend. What I would recommend for for the colleague who has done that, um, to make the analysis more precise if you know the the rhythm. So, what I have done is I have included, and if I can, or if you can show that chart, maybe just for a second on the screen, um, to see the 200-day chart here, I have used a little bit more data. So, the previous five repetitions to the upside. Yeah. Which started 2019. Then the three repetitions to the downside, and the other five repetitions to the upside. So, if you know a little bit what amount of history to take into account. So, and in that case, I, I really know where to start here, 2019, because this was the previous low before the next count of five started. >> Then you clearly can identify that cycle. If you shorten that period more, and I think that was the question, the 200-day cycle starts to fade out. That's correct. So, if you use not as much history, it looks like the 200-day cycle on its own is fading out or morphing into a 230, 260-day cycle. Um, but that needs to be seen. So, we need to do that dynamic time cycle analysis day by day. >> Okay. Okay. And just to conclude, this, this really is a unique, um, analysis for Bitcoin, and you haven't found that this really applies to other assets in the same way that it applies to Bitcoin. >> No, it's just the, the only less learning I also take for other assets. It's really worth to spend some time going over the history of an asset and to, to see also the, the windows or the previous chunks if there are dominant cycles, because I mean, the trap we are all following, including myself, is we just open the chart, look at the current point in time, just see one or two cycles, and then too quickly, yeah, jumping into the right side of the chart where, where the future is, without maybe taking more time to really analyzing the past if there are repeating patterns, um, in that asset, because each asset, asset, that's a learning for me, each asset seems to have a specific rhythm, a specific dance related to two or three dominant cycles. >> Um, and this is where I put more, um, time and more work into my cycle analysis to understand for each other as it is a repetition of different dominant cycles, which gives a better perspective. I think that's a great point and really speaks to how I think the cycle analyzer is an extraordinary tool. Um, it is always used by an analyst, right? And, and the more you use it, the more familiar you become with it for the assets that are important to you, the better, uh, you will, the more you will get out of the cycles analysis. >> Yeah. And, um, also a message I, I want to put out of here is, I mean, I have come up with that stuff in early 2021, not, not just by >> opening the cycle scanner, writing the 200 down. It took me one or two weeks of analysis, really sitting here night by night, day by day, going into that analysis. So, it's not just, even the tool shows you cycles. You really need to take time for your analysis. I mean, with every, every knowledge area, >> Absolutely. And >> so important, and it's so >> seductive sometimes to just look at the cycle charts and go, oh my gosh, I'm going to be rich, you know, and it just doesn't work that way. >> Correct. Correct. >> So, outstanding, uh, analysis, Lars. Thanks again for showing us how it's done and, uh, and for bringing this to us year after year. So, thank you again, and see you on Thursday for the wrap-up. >> Yes, we will. >> All right. Well, good night. >> Cycles matter because they show us the future. Nothing else shows us a future path. Nothing that I've ever found in over 60 years of doing this. The foundation is bigger than markets, right? It started out bigger than markets. It's still bigger than markets. It's bigger than us. There is no such thing as a black swan. It is merely a cycle that was not forecast or anticipated. To me, it's huge. If I can get a glimpse of the future, just a little bit of the future, I'm way ahead. >> I think that the foundation for the study of cycles has a role to play in both bringing technology to the world, but also really emphasizing agency and human agency.