Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. A lot of things are moving on the macroeconomic level. Trump is putting pressure on the Supreme Court. We see that the tone is being set to really push through tariffs and not have, according to him, trillions of dollars reimbursed. We will come back to this in a few moments and especially the impact, as we are soon at the end of the shutdown. The shutdown, which should end on Wednesday, with quite a few implications for the macroeconomy as well. A return of figures that is really awaited by the market. To know where we stand in terms of inflation, to know where we stand in terms of employment, and on the other hand, we have the crypto part which is advancing a lot with new regulations that are emerging. We will look at this together and you will see that there is big news, particularly on Uniswap. We will go back over all the elements with, at the same time, the key levels to watch on BTC. You will see that we have taken a very significant liquidity. But first, I remind you that you can still register for this evening's masterclass at 7 p.m. I will go back over the entire market, ask the question of whether it is really a bear market or not, where we are exactly at the end of this cycle. Can we still talk about the end of a cycle? What is the institutional cycle? Will we be in something particular in 2026? I will explain my entire vision and, in addition, I will give you keys to understand how to really improve yourself by 2026. It will be very important. It's tonight, it's in the comments, in the description to receive the link. And we attack the news with Donald Trump who is putting pressure by talking here about an excess of 3,000 billion dollars. That's huge and he says it will be devastating for the USA. The goal is to put pressure on the Supreme Court, to understand well that tariffs are Trump's endgame here and that he absolutely does not want to go back on them. This will be the most important point because it could be devastating for the USA. In short, you understand, the goal is to put maximum pressure on the Supreme Court so that it goes in his favor and that we maintain the tariffs. After, in any case, it will not be all tariffs that will be impacted, but that does not stop us. We move on to the news with rather crypto news. We have, at last, a draft on the structure of the crypto market that is proposed while we are in shutdown. A shutdown that should, moreover, end soon. Regarding this draft, not much new on this side. The goal is really to have something defined that frames the entire crypto space. It will still take 18 months to be applied from the moment it is voted. And it is not yet voted. There will certainly be major modifications. I think that when it is in the validation process, I will give you an update on it because we are talking about centralized finance, tokenization, but there are still many points that are unfortunately not yet settled. We will have to be patient. And all this is happening during the shutdown, which should normally end on Wednesday, very soon. So, we have the last votes that are being carried out, and we should do it either today or tomorrow. So, we should have the end quickly, and after the end, we should have a bit more leeway in terms of prices and especially a return of figures that are very important for Jerome Powell, who in December will decide yes or no to lower rates. And especially, he will set the tone for why he is lowering rates, and that's what the market is clearly waiting for. In the meantime, we have very good news on Uni, you saw it, a big green candle. Okay, but above all, you need to understand what is happening. Uniswap has implemented the equivalent of a fee switch. That is to say, the ability to transfer Uniswap fees to Uni holders. Well, not exactly, it's a burning system that has been put in place. Naturally, a good reaction, and this is mainly linked to American regulation. If we understand well everything that is happening, everything that is being voted on right now allows for strengthening crypto projects and then implementing this type of burning to push the price up. I will certainly make a video on it for you at the end of the week if you mention Uniswap in the comments, to explain well the impact it can have and what buying pressure will be generated by this change. In other news, which is the opposite of what I just explained. So, I'm sorry, I'm hurting your eyes, they unfortunately don't have dark mode, but it's serious. Currently, we have a strengthening of the anti-money laundering law, which is important, let's agree. But we are reaching a stage where we will ban Monero, Zcash, Dash, so globally all cryptocurrencies that offer a bit of privacy, and this will be applied on July 1, 2027. And above all, identity verification will be required for any crypto transfer exceeding 1,000 euros. 1,000 euros. Well, by the way, they are also taking the opportunity to ban all cash payments above 10,000 euros. And what will they launch? The digital euro. I think everyone has understood. You no longer have monetary freedom, very clearly. On the agenda, we are expecting Thursday, November 13th. Here, the CPIs, very important. We will finally have figures. Normally, if we have the end of the shutdown, will we have it right away on Thursday? I'm not necessarily sure. I think it will take a little time, but we are eager to have these figures, and the market too, to be able to price in the possibility yes or no of a recession or a labor market that is doing very well. This is the big, big topic of the moment. And we have the Nasdaq which gave us a big, very strong candle where we swallowed the entire candle from Thursday and Friday in a single day, rather positive. And now we will see if we have this validation of continuity, or if it was just a breathing phase before retesting perhaps the 24,500. Very important for us on BTC as well. For BTC, it's different. We see that it's much harder to maintain key levels, and we see that we didn't have the same day at all, and especially the start of the day is not at all identical, necessarily. So we still have underperformance from BTC. Unfortunately, I don't need to show you the ratio, but it's confirmed. And so that means we might do a small retest, and on 4-hour charts, when we look at the key levels. It's very important to see several things. Exactly three. First, we see a liquidity grab here from this zone. So, rather classic. We will look for 107,000 dollars. We get rejected once, we will take the liquidity, and then a downward movement. It's very important to see if this downward movement is just a consolidation to go higher. 109, 111 are the two key zones of potential rejection. Either we will seek more strength and for that, seek 102,000 dollars. We must absolutely not break 102,000 dollars. If we break 102,000 dollars, exactly a little lower, I mean we can very well go seek the liquidity that is there, but it doesn't prevent that if we break this zone, unfortunately, it means we will go seek 90,000 dollars. 90,000 dollars which corresponds here to the necessary liquidity for the acceleration of the move. We know that there are many people here, and that also means we will break last week's low, which is here. Okay? Which would be entirely logical. We would go hunt for liquidity and then make a powerful move. What will be important for me here is to monitor the price structure. Will we go seek liquidity at the bottom first to be able to accelerate? Will the Nasdaq and S&P 500 drag us with them? We have clearly seen that we are unfortunately in real underperformance. As long as the price holds this key level here of 104,500, it means that for me, we will have a continuation of acceleration. So we are still in this breathing phase. A breathing phase that can continue. We see that the RSI is slowly rising. I think we can go a little higher. We have a bit of momentum. So we can still build momentum to go seek, well, 108, 109, 111 ideally, and then we will see what happens at the 11 level. If we consolidate, as I told you, above 111,000 dollars, it will be a very good sign to go seek 116 and certainly make an ATH afterwards. We see that market fear is disappearing. We are already talking about a double bottom forming. I think we need to be moderate in our risk management. Unfortunately, the double bottom is not yet fully validated. We are talking about a 4-hour double bottom here. That's not enough when you have a movement that is purely daily and weekly. And it's also validating a bit on the total market side. We see clearly that we don't have any momentum, we don't have any energy. Here, we are still weekly in a part at the low end of the range. We are in consolidation in the 50% zone, and we will need to validate a potential rebound. If this rebound happens, again, it will be positive, but the closing will certainly be weekly. And when we look at the state of liquidity injections, we are talking about a million dollars. There is almost no one, in fact, globally, who is buying. So this implies that we are having a lot of difficulty generating buying pressure. This buying pressure is greatly lacking because we also have selling, selling that we find at the OTC level. We have talked about it several times, and it is being validated that indeed, transferring one's crypto, and mainly BTC, to ETFs has significant tax advantages in the USA, and that's a bit what is happening right now. However, there is one who is buying, no problem. It's Michael Saylor. Strategy: 50 million BTC bought directly to further strengthen MicroStrategy's treasury, which has been renamed Strategy B. So, we do have momentum building, which is being reinforced, but we are still in this period of instability. We need to be drastic in how we manage our risk because going to seek 86,000 dollars also potentially means several liquidations, and these liquidations can be very painful. Hence the interest in absolutely pricing this in and at the same time benefiting from what we see in the market. And that's perhaps the whole complexity of investing in crypto, especially in times like these that we are experiencing. I hope you enjoyed this video. If so, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe.