Transcription
In the last few hours, we've seen a huge pump in the altcoin market. Some altcoins have gained over 1000% since the bottom of the crash. Is this truly a bullish recovery and the return of the altcoin season, or conversely, are we witnessing a massive manipulation move? I will try to be factual, show you with evidence, discuss liquidity, and so on. We will also correlate this with Bitcoin, which is very important. We will also discuss the weekly closing on Bitcoin. Just before we start, I remind you that our algorithm service is still available. For example, the SPT algorithms made 14R in the third quarter and 19R in the second quarter. What does that mean? An R? It means, for example, if I risk 1 to gain 1, I have gained 1R. Example: I risk $10 to gain $10, I have gained 1R. If I risk $10 to gain $20, I have gained 2R. So, this means that these algorithms here have generated 19 times more profit than the initial risk taken. Again, these are past performances. They do not reflect future performance. All performances are available on Discord. To access these algorithms, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content will lead you to this page. You just need to click on this first link to register on BitGate via your partner link. It's mandatory, otherwise it won't work. BitGate also offers you a 10% deposit bonus, meaning if you make a deposit of, for example, $500, you get a $50 deposit bonus. You just need to click here on "join" to benefit from it. Create your account, and once that's done, you just need to click on this second link: Algo Training mentorship VIP Altcoin and crypto. It's a short video in which I explain how to access the Algo for free. Also, how to get the mentorship for free, 24 video courses await you, and also how to get access to VIP Altcoin. This is where I will share the best opportunities in the altcoin market from my perspective.
So, regarding altcoins, we had a huge bullish pump on many assets at once, while US indices were falling. This happened on Friday; we had a significant drop in the indices. Well, we came to test a sell-stop zone, which marked a rebound. But we can still see that this dynamic was bearish. That is to say, while US indices were falling and Bitcoin was more or less falling too, suddenly, all altcoins started to rise. And so, is this a true beginning of an altcoin season or exit liquidity? Well, personally, I think it's exit liquidity, to be honest. I don't think it's the start of an altcoin season at all. I will show you the technical levels that will validate whether we are truly at the beginning of an altcoin season. But honestly, I'm telling you, when you see indices falling, when you see all the world's markets falling, when you see Bitcoin falling, and suddenly altcoins gain 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, it's very suspicious. Knowing that there is less liquidity in the market, I've already talked about it, but we see that stablecoins are no longer being printed. So, where is the money coming from? From my point of view, it's market-making algorithms that are shifting the order book with other algorithms that do what's called TWAP. So, just imagine, you're a market maker, you hold 80% of an asset's liquidity, you increase your sell orders in the order book, and you increase your buy orders, and with other algorithms, you buy the remaining residue, and that's what drives prices up. In addition, many people must have shorted the altcoin market in the previous weeks, and this triggered a short squeeze, which in turn triggered even more buy orders, and when you shift the order book upwards, it's easy to drive prices up. Now, you can't do that indefinitely. And very often, the price stops in fair value zones. These are zones to be rebalanced. Here, we need to execute volume, and very often it stops in volume profile low points. And I will show you from a technical point of view that almost all altcoins that have experienced this kind of pump will resemble a very specific chart. And then, we will try to discern whether it is a true return of the altcoin season or not. So, my opinion doesn't matter. We will look from a technical point of view at what could confirm that it's not simply an exit pump but a true bullish recovery. So, I took FIL, it's a coin I've been watching for a long time. The members of my school know it, it's a token I look at often, and we had noted a zone for quite some time. So, for example, FIL, since its crash, has fallen enormously, and we can see that it has, as if by magic, filled this large FVG zone. And here we see that we had a lot of highs. This is where many people's stops must have been triggered. We see that, as if by chance, FIL pumped enormously in this zone, and since then, it has done nothing. So, these are the characteristics of an exit pump. And if I show you a tool I taught you recently, the fixed range, well, I've talked about it for a long time on my channel, but I've revisited it recently, which allows us to see where the volume was executed. Look at the huge gap we have here. These are zones that will often be re-worked by the market. Why? Because, in fact, during this huge drop, a lot of orders were not executed. What does that mean? It means that, for example, all those who had placed sell limit orders could not be executed. So, in short, there are sell stop market orders and sell stop limit orders. For example, if you place a stop loss at market, the broker, if you tell them "Okay, invalidate my position if we go below this low," the broker executes at the best market price. They sell your position on the market. However, if you tell them to place a stop limit order, in short, you tell the broker if the price goes above $4.32, or rather, if the price goes below $4.32, then in that case, place an order in the order book. But if the price never comes back to test $4.32, you are never executed. And in fact, this is probably what happened on many cryptocurrencies during this drop we had on February 1st or February 2nd, I don't remember. A lot of cryptocurrencies fell. A lot of cryptocurrencies came to reprice this zone because there were supposed to be large sell stop limit orders that were never executed, and the market came to look for some of these orders. And strangely, we see that since we reached this zone, and it's very precise, look, the price keeps going up, up, up, up. Once we reached these zones on the candle, it marked our top, and it's already starting to go back down. And we see this on a lot of altcoins. So, if you see altcoins like this that have re-worked large fair value gap zones or large low volume zones like this in the volume profile, it's very suspicious. Now, what confirms that yes, indeed, this could really be the beginning of an altcoin season is if we manage to break these zones. For example, during the December pump, we did exactly the same thing. FIL is a market that has been bearish for a long time. We can see it; it just comes back to test its fair value gap zones downwards, and each time it dumps. So, each time it fills its FVG, it dumps again. For example, here, it filled its FVG and dumped again. Here, it filled its FVG and dumped again, and so on. Here, we came to test the extreme stops. Here, we came back to fill the fair value gap in December. We dumped again. Yet, here, there was a massive stablecoin printing. Here, there isn't even stablecoin printing for this move, but this is what they do very often. Here, I've put a fixed range of this zone. Well, we see that we filled the low and then we dumped again. So, in my opinion, we are doing exactly the same thing. I think we have just witnessed a huge exit pump. Now, what would, how should I say, not confirm, or rather, what would invalidate this idea of an exit pump, is really to resolve these FVG zones. That would mean that, okay, we are not simply here to close orders and to exit a maximum of shorts because, in fact, if we make these kinds of moves, it's a precursor to 100% later in the altcoin market, meaning to re-work these lower wicks. Why? Because when you make these kinds of big exit pumps, it means you have a desire to give a real bearish direction to the price afterwards. So, first, you take out all the shorts, you block a maximum of buyers, and then you bring the price down. If we are indeed in an exit pump, again, I don't know. What I see before me for now confirms an exit pump. If that's not the case and it's truly the beginning of an altcoin season, we should see the price break these FVG zones. I took FIL as an example, but I took many other coins to show you this.
Just before showing you the other coins, I'll talk about Bitcoin first. It's strange to suddenly have a huge pump in altcoins while Bitcoin is starting to confirm a bearish structure. On top of that, there's no more liquidity entering the market. We are burning stablecoins. So, if we look at the week, the delta is still negative this week. This means we burned more stablecoins than we printed. So, liquidity is leaving the crypto market, not entering. So, you'll tell me that when liquidity leaves, the market suddenly pumps enormously like this. It smells even more of exit liquidity. Also, when we look at global net liquidity worldwide, it's not favorable for an altcoin season and a huge rally in altcoins. We continue to move towards assets that generate returns, income, large stocks, where the bubbles are forming in the AI market, in tech, especially in the stock market, but there is no room for the riskiest asset class, which is the altcoin market. And this is Global Net Liquidity, it's world liquidity. So, they often show us M2, but to see how global liquidity really evolves, we take all liquidity, whether from China, Europe, the United States, all countries, and we see that we are globally more in a QT. Well, QT will soon end in the United States. Other countries will follow. But again, I will make a video on how liquidity really plays on the altcoin market. And there is always a huge lag, but I will talk about that again in a video coming out this week, how liquidity plays and really pumps the altcoin market. But it is not at all favorable for a huge pump. And strangely, when Bitcoin starts to show bearish structures that it hasn't formed throughout this bull run, because this is the first time, the structure we are forming. The weekly breaker block is the first one we are having. The close is not yet final. I remind you that if we close above $107,000, there will be no breaker block. But this is the first time we would form a weekly breaker block. We are starting to see weekly candles forming on the dollar index, and on the other hand, there is a huge pump in altcoins that comes out of nowhere. Personally, I find it very suspicious. After all, it might be the beginning of an altcoin season, and I want to say, well, good if that's the case. After all, when you look at the altcoin chart against Bitcoin, I think it's quite difficult to say that this is the beginning of the altcoin season. I mean, the thing is still bearish. If we were to have an altcoin season, it should look like this: a huge range forming and a breakout at some point. So, maybe we are marking a bottom here, but it's too early to talk about an altcoin season. I'll also show you other coins. Yes, what I also wanted to say was, I'm coming back to this, the bearish dynamic of BTC. So, during this entire bullish phase, altcoins did nothing, and when the dynamic becomes bearish on BTC, then suddenly altcoins wake up. That doesn't make sense. I mean, they should have woken up much earlier. It's when the dynamic is bullish that we are supposed to have a mega push in altcoins. Not when the dynamic is bearish. So, maybe this is a bear trap and Bitcoin will literally explode, taking altcoins with it. Scenario number 1. In that case, we will see a lot of stablecoin printing. We see that for 4 weeks, even 5 weeks, it has been falling enormously. Less and less liquidity is entering this market. We can also note the changing dynamic on BTC, the question of the last low marking a top. Again, I repeat, we cannot confirm that we are entering a bear market strictly speaking on BTC, we are confirming that we are entering a bearish weekly dynamic which will have two objectives: $98,000, well, we are almost there, we've already talked about it, but also potentially this FVG zone. So, in the coming weeks, if this forms, we could expect to retest the breaker and then continue our bearish swing as long as this breaker is respected. And so, the zones of $98,000, these fair value gap zones between $86,000 and $92,000, correspond in particular to this low zone we have in the volume profile here. You see this big hole here that we could fill. We have already filled this one. So, if this zone doesn't hold, the next low zone is here. And this would allow us to maintain the monthly dynamic, and I've already made a video about that. Now, I'll show you other altcoins. So, for me, FIL is one of the best examples, and it's the one I'm observing because I've already seen quite a few things like this. This kind of repricing, and very often when we are in these zones, it doesn't bode well for the future. And here, we already see that, well, for me, it's already starting to move here. Now, there are other coins I've noted. So, we have Layer, for example. Layer, which has a quite similar chart where, simply, we see that we have filled our FVG zones. Now, if I show you a fixed range, you'll see that there are huge gaps here. There are also some here. So, these are zones we could fill, but maybe we'll just stop there. But we see that, again, suddenly, it made its huge pump, its mega wick. It reached the target zone, all the stops, the FVG zones, and boom. Thank you, goodbye. So, this is also more of an exit pump chart. Then, I've noted Starknet as well. Now, Starknet is a bit similar. That is to say, Starknet has also simply closed its large bearish fair value gap from the crash. And so, similarly, Starknet, if there's a possibility to go higher, you have to break this FVG zone. If we break this FVG zone, okay, we'll re-work higher. What would be the next zone to re-work that requires a retest? It's here. Starknet hasn't re-worked this zone yet. So, if we see it break this zone, Starknet, there's a chance for an even more powerful exit pump up to these large FVG zones here from the crash we had at the end of January, beginning of February. Well, in fact, it's always the same week. For FIL, for example, it was these candles, the fair value gaps of February 2nd and 3rd, 2025. For FIL, we reached this zone, which I showed you just before. For example, Starknet could do that too. Now, that doesn't mean we're going to go back up. If we go up suddenly like that in a straight line, it smells of exit pump, and then we should expect something like this. So, it can be observed for those who want to find the next exit pump. We have, I noted DOT as well. DOT is the same. That is to say, DOT here, similarly, it came to take the stops. So, this zone has already been more or less worked. And we see that it did exactly the same thing. It came, it came to take all the stops from the previous highs, very suspicious. We came to close a good part of the FVGs, and then, as if by chance, as soon as we entered the zone, the following candles, boom, it immediately goes down. Now, if this is truly the beginning of a pump, again, we will have to break this zone, and then yes, we could put even more pressure upwards and even go back above $5.40 and more. But very suspicious as well, suddenly here, we have this big exit pump, and as soon as the zone is reached, the thing goes back down. It's quite suspicious. Then, I've noted FET as well. FET, same, exactly the same. I came to seek my fair value gaps here. So, similarly, if I show you a fixed range from the previous high, I'll put it at the last low, strangely, the gaps are here. Here, there was almost no volume executed. For this drop, there is significant volume, and here, there were gaps. We entered these FVG zones, and strangely, what happens? Directly, boom, it goes back down as soon as the objective is reached. That is to say, I'm taking the candle that reaches the objective as if the algorithms have reversed, as if there are market-making algorithms. We have to reach this objective. We shift the order book to the maximum. Once it's reached, we reverse the algorithms, and I literally have the impression that we have witnessed this. Now, if indeed, and I forgot to mention it, if indeed we are witnessing something bullish and we have a future altcoin season or a future pump in altcoins, all the large fair value gaps that have formed upwards are supposed to be maintained. That is to say, we are supposed to see, for example, on FET, consolidation in the coming days and then move up again. If we do that, it's positive, and it could indeed mislead and invalidate the idea of an exit pump or simply go even higher afterwards. But if these fair value gap zones do not hold, it definitively confirms the exit pump as well. And I tell you again, it's very suspicious, and almost all. I couldn't take all the samples, but I tried to find as many as possible. But ICP, look how suspicious ICP is. We came to recover all the highs. We came to fill our large fair value gap here. Again, always the same zone, the one from February. We had left large FVGs, we came back to close them all, and as if by magic, boom, this is where we start to be rejected. And so, similarly, if I show you a fixed range, I'll take the entire movement, the last high, the last low. As if by chance, it's here that we have the big low. If I had to give it to you, the big low is here, very precisely on the volume profile. Ah, strangely, it's here that we start to be rejected, and again, it's here that we seem to start distributing and wanting to go back down. I don't know if we're going to go back down on ICP, but in fact, the market's objective isn't to let people exit at break-even or make them money. I'm almost sure that even an ICP that returns to these zones makes almost no one profit. So, it allows us to come back to interesting zones, exit liquidity zones, to execute a maximum of volume. If there are many people who have shorted, to get rid of them all at once. And so, this empties the train for selling, and thus empties the train in the bearish direction, and if we go back down, well, there's almost no one left short, and all the holders unfortunately remain at a loss. And this is what always happens when we close fair value gaps. That is to say, often people don't have time to close their positions, don't have time to exit at break-even, often they remain at a loss. If I put, for example, another tool which will be a VWAP from the high, it's highly likely that the market here did not let the holders exit. Here, for example, if we were to consider where the break-even people are, it's around $11-$12. By the way, if you are an ICP investor, feel free to tell me in the comments at what price you bought. Did this pump allow you to exit at break-even or not? But for example, according to a VWAP, we can see that the holders are roughly around here. So, we see here, as soon as we reach break-even, we go back down. As soon as we reach break-even, we go back down. Theoretically, we don't let people exit with gains on this kind of project. Then, we have ETC as well. I was able to note a fairly similar pattern, that is to say, ETC did more or less the same thing. Now, ETC is more liquid than those I just mentioned, but again. That is to say, it did the same thing. It came to seek its large last fair value gap, it came to take the stops, and at the moment it triggered the zone, boom, it already changed direction. Again, if this is truly the beginning of something bullish, as I told you, watch this FVG zone carefully. If it holds and we consolidate within it, yes, we could prepare a second leg, but if you see these FVG zones break, again. It smells more like we will re-work this wick. And often I've talked about this, these are discount zones. So, you take the low point, the high point, and you note a retracement of 50% to 75% of the wick. That would be the next zone to look for eventually. So, here, if we don't respect this fair value on ETC, it will be between $10 and $8. Then, I noted another example, KSM here. So, again, KSM did the same thing. Again, mega pump, we came to seek our FVGs. We can't close above them for the moment. So, maybe we will manage to close above, I don't know. But this is what caused us to close our weekly fair value gaps, and strangely, boom, we go back, we immediately go back down. Again, if I show you a fixed range here from the previous drop, not this tool, but this one, click, strangely, it's here that we will see the huge gap. Voilà, the gaps are huge. They were up to here, precisely here. And we see that the price came, it even exceeded the previous highs to take more stops probably, but we see that directly, hop, the exit pump seems to be over. So, these look more like Exit Pumps to me than the beginning of a bullish rally. Now, we've seen many big exit pumps on ZEC, Dash, and so on. And for those who have stayed until the end, and I'm telling you, it's very risky, but for me, there are two charts that come back and that could make an exit pump, a bit like following the dinosaurs. I've noted BAT, which graphically could launch a sort of exit pump. I mean, the structure isn't bad. And to see something like this while everything is falling, it could perhaps indicate that a future exit pump is coming. After all, be very careful because, again, we have returned to the last FVG zone, and its exit pump might already be over. That is to say, the thing will reverse. Honestly, I wouldn't touch it at all. Now, I know I have people in my community who are a bit risk-takers. Well, there's BAT, but especially one of the most interesting tokens in this category of tokens that can pump out of nowhere, there's XVG. Now, XVG is a privacy coin that dates back a very long time. I'm telling you, it's extremely risky, and theoretically, it might have already finished its exit pump because it came back to close its FVGs. But I don't know about the structure. It's like something is happening here. The thing refuses, refuses to dump. I don't know, each time it consolidates, it does these kinds of pumps. It consolidates, it does these kinds of pumps, and then it goes back down, of course. This is not long-term investment. This is just a risky speculative move. Personally, I wouldn't even touch it with a ten-foot pole, but who knows. From a technical point of view, it's true that it's not too bad. After all, maybe the retracement and repricing, it's called repricing, rebalancing, has already happened. In fact, we have already come back to close our FVGs. But, it's true that from a technical point of view, it's not too ugly. Again, it's very risky. It's not an investment at all. It's just that graphically it looks a bit like ZEC and Dash before they broke these structures and made the mega pump. Maybe they will try to make exit pumps, but this shows that it's an exit pump season. That is to say, here, we are pumping what we can pump before everything goes back down. That's my impression. After all, it's the impression it gives me. We'll see if graphically it validates real bullish recoveries or not. I hope this has answered a maximum of questions. To summarize, I find it very suspicious to see a bearish structure forming on Bitcoin and suddenly seeing big exit pumps like this on altcoins. It doesn't look very good from my point of view. After all, if it develops in the coming days, weeks, I will come back to it, and we will see what is developing. Obviously, this is subject to interpretation. Feel free to tell me in the comments what you think. Is it a real pump? Is it an exit pump? Exit simply means we make everything go up to distribute it all, then everything goes back down. That's a bit what we're starting to see. But maybe it won't really be the case. Maybe it will re-accumulate in bullish fair value gaps this time, and that would be positive. Anyway, feel free to give me your opinions in the comments, leave a huge thumbs up, it makes me very happy, subscribe if you haven't already. 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