All-Time High Stocks… Bitcoin About To Explode?

From a technical perspective and an Elliot wave perspective, I believe we have just finished a correction and I've been waiting patiently to kind of build off the lows we made in in in uh at 60th,000. The ecosystem of the direct relationship between Bitcoin and the AI world is starting to act well. When you run out of compute, that is important for Bitcoin. That fits in with the scarcity argument. So, do I think we're just going to jump out of here?

What's going on, guys? In this week's conversation with Jordy, we talk about the commodity bull market, why stocks are at all-time highs, how he's thinking about inflation, deflation, and various other metrics in the economy. We then talk about the psychology of the individual American and how much that matters for asset prices. Talk about Bitcoin starting to surge back and why he's so bullish there. And then we talk about scarcity. Where is scarcity in the market? What is Jordy actually going and buying himself? And how should you think about putting scarcity into your portfolio versus maybe some of the major indexes? This conversation's got a ton of great insights. And at the end, Jordy shares a couple of things that he's built that are pretty cool, and I think that you'll enjoy it. And Jordy gives out his email address, so you may want to pay attention at the end. That's it. Here's my conversation with Jordy Visser.

All right, Jordy, you told me that you didn't think stocks were going to get to all-time highs this year. We're sitting at all-time highs right now. We also saw an 11-day advance before the new all-time high, and now stocks seem to be exploding as we open up the straight and kind of gang busters. What do you got to say for yourself there, big dog?

You asked my opinion, it was wrong. Uh I didn't think there was a bare market. I didn't think there'd be a recession, but I also didn't think that the market could look through uh the inflation, the credit, and all that. But as this market has proven time and time again over the course of the last I don't know what's it been since 2019 that no matter what takes it down a pandemic tariffs Silicon Valley Bank now shutting down the most important um crossing for oil uh it just doesn't seem to matter. It hasn't been um it hasn't been a broad thing. It has still been led by the things that I am bullish on and I've said repeatedly we are in a secular bull market in hardware in commodities and in semiconductors and this did and this was led by them.

I also did a um I did a video I don't think I sent it to you sorry if I didn't. Um, I did a video on Tuesday about Oracle >> and there's an important message in that which I'll let you kind of double click on a little bit for people, but I did that on Tuesday which to me opened up a little bit more of the upside because there's a change that's happening with inside AI that I think has become critical and all of the news this week under the surface since people are so focused on oil has been about a an enormous shortage that is starting to become more and more evident with inside the AI world. >>

So, I want to talk about a couple of things here. The first is um I have now said for years that we have outlawed prolonged bare markets. We have outlawed multi-year recessions. I don't think in the rest of my life, and I know it's a bullet, but I don't think in the rest of my lifetime we will see either one of those things. And mainly, it's because two components. One is the Federal Reserve has perfected the QE playbook. The second we have cracks in the system, they rush in and you know, they start printing money, drop interest rates, all that stuff. The second though is I actually think in a hyperconnected digital world, investors have amnesia. And you know, I was joking this morning like investors are going to forget where Iran is on a map by the end of the year. >> Like they're just not even going to Maduro happened what what was that 12 weeks ago. People don't even remember that he's sitting in MDC, you know, jail here in uh in New York City. And so I do think there's this element of you get the amnesia from investors and just the constant what's the next narrative, what's the next story? Uh but then you also compare that with the QE from the central bank and to your point doesn't mean that the stock market can't go down 10 or 15% you know in a in a given time period >> but it just doesn't last very long and you get these kind of V-shaped type recoveries. >>

Yeah. Just remember um earlier in the year before Iran so in the first we're we're now almost so Iran started in in like the first day of March. So we're about six weeks into that. the market was having trouble before that and that was due to >> what I'll talk about this the supersonic tsunami >> that's getting worse. So remember if you strip out semiconductors and you strip out energy which is a it's an inflationary reflationary situation anything related to the consumer has had trouble. Um, this has been about commodities. This has been about PMIs. And I've been on this for a while and I've talked about these are where your investments need to be. So, this is the problem of talking about the market. The market has lots of names. It has lots of components. It has not been a good year for financial stocks. It has not been a good year for software stocks. It has not been a good year for the hyperscalers. Those facts are still in place. And those are the companies that have suffered the most from the power and the disruption of artificial intelligence. So my issue comes back to the same thing. People also at the same time get caught in new alltime highs. That means everything's good. You can't get rid of the problems of the deflationary pressure. So let's put those three components in in in in context. AI is getting p more powerful. Myth whether it's mythos or mythos. I've heard like 20 different people say it different ways. >> The scary one. >> Yeah. It seems like the people with the best educations say mythos. And I I'm assuming >> it's like finance versus finance. >> Yeah, exactly. I So I've kind of said since I since my father was a construction worker, I'm going to stick with mythos for me. Um, you've got a problem where AI is accelerating even faster. These problems run into hacking risk. They run into jobs risk. They run into all of the things that were already a problem before we started this whole thing with Iran. So I think another thing is happens is people get hyperfocused on the event and yes it goes away but there's always a new event that comes out of it. The new event to me that is absolutely going to be here as far as I'm concerned is that we've reached the physical limits of AI. The commodity and semiconductor shortage is become real. And this only started honestly October, November, December. The shortages really started around the end of the year with memory. So DRAM prices had gone up, but we also had silver going up. Now you've got oil. Even with it falling on the straight opening, it's still higher than it was. Fertilizer, plastic. We don't know how long that's going to take to get those shortages back in. So when you get caught, hey, the straight's open. That's all well and good. We did a tremendous amount of disruption to inventories to a whole bunch of things which just mean our line of safety for inflation is gone. So we're going to have more volatile situations when it comes to that. the deficit and the debt is worse because of this whole situation. And with inflation at high levels, higher than they were and higher than what was expected, which everyone has the same forecast on that, you're left with negative real rates. As I said, once we get into it, what's the Fed going to do? We're going to have a new Fed chair. There will be a new story that comes out. Earnings are good. As I said, I believe earnings would be good this year. I believe the economy will be good this year. I'm not sure the multiple compression story, which has been the big thing, is gone yet. And I would continue to focus your attention on places where there's scarcity and I would avoid places of abundance because god forbid we start seeing the disruption to software names because as of now we've had no bad news in software. This was all about hype over the future. What if a company like salesforce.com actually highlights in their earnings coming up that they are seeing a loss of seats? This will start another wave of this. >> Watch out below. and we haven't gotten rid of the connection of how big software was in terms of the debt and everything associated with it. So, I just want to make sure people realize this is a trading market. Stick with the things that are in a secular bull market. Don't get caught in the S&P 500 in this thing about, you know, stocks, bull market, bare market. There are lots of names that are up 100% this year. There's lots of names that are down 20% this year. That means there's an opportunity for picking your names. I would stick with the scarcity names. >>

Okay. I want to talk about first, let's just talk about the V-shaped recovery in the market. Um, we've got this thing uh, Pro Cap Insights. We've got this AI system goes finds uh, uh, the agents go and find insights. And one of the things that it found this week that I thought was very interesting is since Q4 of 2018, there has been at least five V-shaped recoveries. And the V-shaped recovery is basically defined by a material draw down in the stock market. Let's call it 10% or so. And then in a very short period of time, it comes back, right? In a matter of months. um when that has happened all five times in the last 10 years we have seen the stock market rally significantly from there since Q4 of 2018 every single time the lowest return that you got over the next 12 months was 20% the highest I think was somewhere like 70 plus%. When you see that, it reinforces, you and I have talked about in the past, the data point of buying the all-time high stock price in the S&P is usually the best day to buy compared to any other day because momentum be gets more momentum and over a 6 month, threeyear, you know, 5year period, you get this thing. What you're talking about though is actually if you take the S&P uh as an example, there are some names that are going to outperform, there are some names that are going to suffer. And so I know that you personally are looking at okay what are the sectors where are the scarcity I'm going to go and invest there but let's say that there are people who say look I you know I'm a teacher I'm a fireman I'm a accountant I uh have a regular job I don't do this for a living >> I just have been trained to buy the S&P 500 >> how do you think that performs over the next 12 to 24 months do you think it's something where it'll have like a negative to flat return or do you think that it's just going to underperform these scarcity verticals >>

I definitely think it's going to underperform the scarcity verticals I so we can um the beauty of of using AI is to go back in history. But if I said did my specialty which is when an analyst would come in I have a good brain for like I used to memorize baseball cards when I was a kid. It was a little parlor trick. Uh I had a lot of like little nuances of ridiculous things that I could do. Play Space Invaders blindfolded stuff like that. Like I could get the patterns. Um, you're not talking about a lot of data points in your back test. So maybe there's four. Mhm. >> Um, the one thing that I I can guarantee you was not consistent with what is about to happen. Uh inflation is going higher, meaning it's moving higher. We haven't been above 4%. At any point in history where it's been a good time to be involved in stocks, and I've highlighted those numbers. When we get the next CPI print, we will be above 4% most likely. Unless people think that fertilizer is not going to have impact on food prices, that diesel prices that are sitting up where they are is not going to feed through the economy, headline inflation is going to be high. The silliness of people arguing whether inflation is high or not. When surveys for Americans say that their finances are horrible is ridiculous to me. And that gets into the thing again of numbers. I deal in the reality of the way people think. >>

All right, but hold on. the survey complete lie in my opinion. We got to debate this. >> Okay, >> so Tom Lee is the one who went and did the research on this. Uh I actually did not believe him. I told him this. I said, I I don't believe the conclusion. So I went and I looked at the data and Tom was right. So >> the Michigan Consumer Survey, I think it was two or three years ago, switched from their traditional methodology to now they do a lot of it online. >> In that switch, I'm going to give them credit and say this was not intentional. It was not nefarious. There's no kind of, you know, grand conspiracy theory, whatever, but they publish Republican and Democrat breakdown of the survey pool. It used to be almost dead 50/50. They're very good at surveying. I think it was a very reliable metric. It appears, let's call two years ago when they switched the survey methodology that now in the data that they report, they survey 2/3 Democrats, one-third Republican. >> Now, the reason why Tom called this out was he said, "Look, forget all the politics nonsense. It's just that at the time when he published his report, Democrats were saying that inflation was going to be over 5%. Republicans were saying it was going to be under 2%. >> So like the political, you know, bias drastically uh changed the way that people looked at the future of inflation and at the consumer sentiment. >>

I I'm I'm not able to say that the survey is uh right or wrong. What I think that I've come to the conclusion of, it's not a reliable data point. How do you think about it? Do you still use it? >>

Um, first of all, to to get rid of a data point and try to explain out to me is is is crap. >> Um, all data matters. You can explain any one data point away. So, I'm not saying that this data point by itself. >> Mhm. >> But if I said to you, is affordability a major issue in the political parties? >> Well, it dep it depends for half the country. The other half, no. >> You think there is half the country that is not saying that affordability is not an issue? that young people don't feel like >> oh oh you're saying are they t I'm saying that half of the country does not have affordability issues the other half of the country does but I think both political parties are very focused on because they understand that they need the votes from that group that is affected by it and so it is a major political issue >> yeah I mean again if >> mom Donnie and Trump both are talking about affordability >> exactly on both sides it's in the ven diagram of politics affordability is a major issue in >> agree with that yeah >> are job fears a major issue of course they are that's all I need to That is that chart broken out by the two components. >> But are job but are the job fears rooted in data or they rooted in narrative? Maybe it doesn't matter. >> It doesn't matter to me. Again, I So surveys are feelings. >> They're not facts. >> Agreed. >> Um and how people feel to me they're scared of AI. They don't like AI. Okay, that's a problem. They may not like the war. They may not like this. Is gas at the pump much higher than it was? Of course. So that's not a pot. You can go through things, but if I look at the Michigan finance thing, I look at since gas at the pump went up, it spiked higher. If I go overlay those things with gas, if you try to argue away things, you get in this very dangerous game. I don't view any one data point by itself as mattering. I see what's happening in the country. I see what's going on through the politics. I see what's happening in the way people think about things. I hear them. they're not happy. And so, yes, I do believe it's 50-50 in the country, and I think it'll stay that way. And if we switch parties, then the other party will go down to hating things. And I agree with that. And that Michigan stuff has always been that way. And I think that just shows how polarized the country is. But polarization to me comes to a large degree with the way that the blue states and the red states are trying to handle the problems. Wealth taxes are going up. Like, >> so the anger, no matter where you fit in, is the distribution of wealth problem in the country. You you mean the mayor of New York City standing outside of one of the residences, one of his citizens residences, explicitly calling him out is is new. >> So So my my view on this as someone who who does not focus on politics and my decision-m in in in how I invest technology is a very disruptive force and it forces politicians to give money to people. It forces politicians to take money for people. But those problems get worse when the size of the deficit and the debt is at levels that is normally associated with a recession. So no matter how you go through the University of Michigan thing, the fact of the matter is because of the debt and deficit problem, that's why we're in this we're in a recession for the bulk of the country for semiconductors. No. But for consumer goods, for housing and all that stuff, autos, it's a recession. >>

Clarify this a little bit. So when you say recession, um, if I look at the data, it shows that home prices have essentially top ticked and have now turned over and are starting to come down. Now, it's not 10% drops in home prices, but if you go if you look on, you know, home volume sales are at like nine uh 9-year lows or something. If you go and you look at one of my favorite things is to go to different locations on like Zillow and just look at, hey, how many homes have dropped more than, you know, 5 or 10% over the last 12 months, whatever. >> Pretty significant. you know, when you look at different uh areas, you're talking about a recession in the sense of prices are coming down the same way a stock market recession would be, or are you talking about something else? >>

No. And so, just like a depression is a psychological thing. I'm not a big thing on a recession for anything that is not growing to me is in a recession. >> The housing market is not growing. We're near all-time lows and things. People can't afford housing. They're trapped in housing because their mortgage rates are low and if they go out. So, there's nothing happening there. There's nothing happening in autos. Um, commercial real estate's in a recession. Mhm. >> Like software is in a recession now outside of AI. So there's plenty of places. Now this always happens in an economy. So you can't say that GDP is not good, which is why I say GDP will be fine. But the problem is for people who are consumers that are not in the top 10%. Their wages are not growing and the inflation was reset at higher levels. any part of inflation that ticks up, even if it's only for 3 to 6 months, unless their wages move up at the same time, it's an issue. Now, if this comes at a time when the AI agents are getting here, meaning digital employees are there, it puts pressure on this and that voting block, particularly the ones in New York City, highly educated or educated, >> who have student loans, who can't afford to live in a city where they can get paying jobs, which is what their vision is. So again, this is more psychological, but this is the reason why I focused my attention on Bitcoin is because at some point these pressures grow. And I believe that the ultimate time was when number one, software or growth assets were no longer an investable place. I think we're there. Number two, if we get to the point where inflation is above interest rates, that's really a representation of something very different than where we were in 2021 and 2022. The Fed raised rates, but the job market was insane. Labor had the advantage over capital. YOLO was a big thing. People were you had to beg people had three jobs. >> Exactly. You had to beg people to come back to work. >> It's a completely different scenario now. >>

All right. But I want to talk about this inflation thing. So I actually think you and I disagree on this which is good. Um >> I don't think we actually do. >> Maybe not. Even better. Um today's episode is brought to you by Consensus Miami. I'm going to be speaking there on the main stage in a couple of weeks. This is the event the entire industry shows up for. Wall Street, the White House, all of crypto and web 3. This May 5th through May 7th, you can discover everything from crypto at scale to institutional integration and agentic commerce. It's the forces driving trillions on chain and reshaping global finance. 20,000 decision makers are going to be in attendance. Three action-packed days. Deals get signed here. Funds get raised here. And the next cycle starts here as well. You can't afford to miss it. I'll be there speaking and you can use the code PMPO to get 25% off your pass and join me there. Go in the description and look how to spell my name and use code Pompiano to get 25% off your pass to join me there. I'm a very big believer that there are certain things that are definitely experiencing inflation in the economy. Gas is up, right? Things like that. But I believe that the structural more macro trend is deflation via tariffs, deportations, AI, robotics. And I know you may not be the biggest fan of trueflation. I use that as my main metric. That has spiked from the 08. It went all the way up to like 0.1 uh 1.7. It has now come back down and settle somewhere like the 1.2 1.3 range. Um so I agree that CPI is likely to go higher as it did, but it's not going to go nearly as high as everyone thinks it is. What I find, >>

where do you think it's not going to go to? So, we can you you you made a vague statement. I've already said it's going above four. Where do you think it's not going to? Headline inflation, not true inflation, headline CPI. I think that there is um if I use true inflation 98% correlation of CPI with a one-mon lag then the next CPI print as of today we're only halfway through the month so let's see what happens the rest of this month but as of right now inflation will basically be flat to where the uh the latest print is what is a little we have to go back and look is um at the beginning of April the true inflation number actually went from 1.7 to 1.2 to it dropped. >> Mhm. And so there is a good chance that the next CPI print that we get in March April uh time frame um will be flattish right and that could be plus or minus let's say plus or minus.5 which what inflation was 3 >> three >> so we wouldn't get over four in the next one now I could be wrong but I think that band somewhere in the like let's call it 3 to 4% range but pretty much flat it's not going to in my opinion spike to over 5%. Now, could the correlation break between true inflation and CPI? 100%. Right? There's certain things that they do in their calculation that CPI doesn't and vice versa, whatever. But what I find the most interesting about thinking through this right now is let's give credit to True Inflation and say that they are accurate in the consumer inflation measurements that they use. It's real time. It's blah blah blah whatever. And let's say that it is going to somewhere in the 3.3 3.5 range is where we're going to kind of hang out for a little bit. M >> commodities are exploding higher. Some of these things are doubled in price very very quickly. And so what I then started to think about is have we ever had a situation where consumer inflation did not spike but commodities did spike higher? You've been doing this longer than I have. Like can you think of a single time where that's actually occurred? >>

Well, first of all, you've left something really important. All right. when you say commodities um the most important commodity in all of our lives over the last and again I I I I'm not gonna I don't want to pick on true inflation okay I'm a professional who's had many quants come in and give me their back test so it's all well and good >> um let's just say I I differ in where inflation is going to be on headline inflation um and again I admit when I'm wrong so if I'm wrong I'll be wrong >> we'll see >> um the most important commodity in your life >> the Jordy Pomp betting market on uh inflation Um, the most important commodity in your life that has occurred over the course of the last 17 years is semiconductors. >> True. >> They're in everything. >> Yes. >> Everything in your home, everything in your car is loaded with semis. We're out. >> Mhm. >> So, import price and export price inflation for South Korea this week above 18% and above 20%. >> Mhm. >> We don't make semis here. we import them the import price inflation. So I think this whole nuance of people is we've never seen anything like this. This is why back tests do not tell you what the future >>

So you're basically making the argument just to make sure I understand you're making the argument that uh or part of the argument take semiconductors which is a small but very important component of inflation. You're almost saying, hey, it is spiking so aggressively that even if everything else appears to be okay, this huge gain in this one area could substantially impact headline inflation. >>

It's more than that. We all pay for Wi-Fi. We all like every single thing in our life to some degree has associated with it. The electricity prices, the power, all of that stuff. So >> at some point you you have to look at inflation and go when you say a consumer, a consumer buys semiconductors every day. their phone is arguably their most important thing. True. We have a shortage of this stuff. Like I'll be showing this weekend that inflation and I mean this is I mean I hate to say it but we can't make as many phones. Now phones are not being purchased right now in any big way but the reason is cuz the prices are going higher. So this doesn't change the fact that if you take an iPhone and you change the price from let's say the lowest end 500 to 550 once it's a 10% rise. It happens in a month. It doesn't mean that every month it's going to go higher. So it's one of the things about this, but when silver prices go higher and they're involved in every semi, you know, in every semiconductor, then semiconductors continue an inch higher. Memory, I think people just have to go through debating whether inflation is going higher or lower for the next few years. You mentioned humanoids. To get to the deflationary part of humanoids, we have to have inflation because we need to buy all the semiconductors. So when Alon Mus says, "I need5 to$13 trillion worth of semiconductors over to be able to do what I want to do." We're not built for that. And so the commodity thing cannot be minimized. Your your question is valid. the transfer mechanism and this is one of the reasons why if I were to sit and intellectually go back and forth with the way they thought about trueflation if you try to back test things and I've seen the correlation I've seen the overlay it looks perfect up until co and then it starts to break away a little bit what happened in co is very different than the prior decade and it's not to say that they're they're not right and I'm not wrong but I've just been through a bunch of these that if in if commodities are an inflationary period where the the bottom of crude is now appear. We were just in a commodity bare market for a decade. >> Mhm. >> If we're in a bull market for commodities for a decade, I think the historical correlations of people that fitted things to a very good correlation, they might break down a little bit. And again, I could be wrong on this, but I think for certain we have shortages of semiconductors and commodities for the foreseeable future. And I think that's going to translate into >> less predictable inflation that happened in the past. So earlier this year, I think you and I talked about like this is kind of uh the tariff tantrum all over again. Everyone's freaking out. It's going to be fine. Relax. You know, see through the noise. If I go back and I think about and try to be as intellectually honest as why did I think there wasn't going to be really high inflation when the tariffs were there. One was actually had nothing to do with data. It was all about like there was consensus and out and dissent was outlawed and so just like there's no way that everyone got it right all together at the same time. So, there was something about that that like gave me the spidey sense of, hey, the consensus is probably wrong. The second thing was I always think back to and it's so funny. I don't know if you ever seen the uh Bill Aman video on YouTube of like the complex economic machine, >> right? And he pulls up all these things. What? It's a very good video if like if you're starting from zero, right? But if you've been doing it for a while, you're like, "Hey, this is not really designed to, you know, for me." Um, but in that he does talk about the complexity and there's a lot of moving parts and all this stuff. And if we think back to that moment, why did inflation not explode higher? First of all, there was the whole like taco, you know, hey, there's a 20% tariff, let's bring it back down. But two was there was a ton of other moving parts. Deportations, AI, all this stuff. So, it's very hard to say, hey, what is the impact is one thing >> right now feels like a similar thing. So, take semiconductors as an example. >>

I look and and it's not perfect because there's all these people attacking it from different angles. But now the world realizes we need semiconductors. And so you have some people who are trying to build chips. You have some people who are trying to build, you know, the fabs, terap fabs, you know, type stuff, whatever. You have people in the United States, outside the United States. It's like the gold rush is on. And the thing is different than software is it's much harder to build hardware, right? It's much harder to design things. And so, um, I wonder how sustainable or resilient is potential inflation in these products if there is massive competition on the way. Now, does the competition actually have a product that they can bring to the market in 12 months, 18 months, 5 years? I I'm not an expert on, you know, what those timelines look like, but you would think that, okay, there's this inflationary thing, which means the economic reward is increasing for whoever can supply the market with this product. Here comes all this competition. Shouldn't they bring the price back down as that competition comes to market? Or do you think that the demand imbalance is so great that even if all of these people are successful, we still get, you know, the inflationary pressure on those prices? >>

So, let let me let me react to what you said about last year and give give you a little bit more on my thoughts last year about why we agreed on on the inflation front last year. Um, there were three components that were important to me with with the tariffs. Number one, wages were in decline. Number two, housing was in decline. Uh and number three, oil was not moving and I didn't think was going to move. >> So last year at this point and even coming into this year, I was not concerned about the things I'm concerned about now. >> What is a mistake is when you get new information, the whole part of having a basian mind is you have to think about what happened and whether it matters longer term. >> Mhm. >> What happened in the Straits of Hormuz has changed the world. Anyone who doesn't agree with that, in my opinion, is just wrong. >> Now, does it mean that the world's going to end and that everything should be on fire? No. But does it reset oil higher than it was at the beginning of the year? Does it mean the thing that I thought was never going to be a part of this? Because oil was an archaic thing that was more necessary. >>

Where did we start the year with oil? 55 60 before the war. It was 63ish. >> 60. Okay. So, let's just call $60. Y right now. Uh, as of the recording of this, we're around uh 80 bucks 80 $83 we crashed down to uh as the straight got opened. Where do you think we end the year? Is it like 80 is a pretty good spot and that's you know 30% higher than where we started the year or do you think it goes down from here up? Like what's your kind of >>

So let let's do it by the end of the year I I'm going to guess that the normal progression of this is that somewhere around 80 to 75 even is is where it is. So higher than >> but still but still higher 25% higher. >> Here's the thing I would say. I think there's going to be more episodic >> spikes. Spikes >> like the volatility frequency will increase. >> I I And here here's the thing. Number one was the disruption where we got rid of the the available barrels that were out there. The other issue that comes out is this was a warning sign to Asia in particular. They need more energy. So the hoarding aspect of it won't go below a certain price. So if anything, I'd air on higher. I don't think we're getting back to 63. Second thing is remember PMIs are going higher. >> Transportation stocks are on fire. So the economy is actually growing on the part that is very intensive for oil. So I always thought I mean historically if PMIs are up high, oil follows. So I thought it was good to have energy stocks for that reason. So when you look back to last year, we've changed the oil component. We haven't changed the housing component. We haven't changed the wages. That's why I can live with core inflation and service-based stuff doesn't spike as much as energy. I also am fine with the fact that we're not going back to 8 to 9% CPI in the headline. Do I think we'll be above four? Yes. Do I think we'll be volatile above four? Yeah, I think we're going to be seeing prints that are no longer zero and point.2 because I think when you move oil to a higher level and you combine it with what I said in the shortages in AI that are only intensifying and we haven't talked about it, we are out of CPUs >> a year. Explain that. Explain that. >>

So, we've heard I mean Nvidia's been making GPUs and we hear about you know Hoppers and Blackwell and Vera Rubin and fighting over tariffs. Are we going to give them chips? CPUs last year were a dead thing. The thing that's mainly used in phones, old school stuff. Intel was trading at $20. Literally, there were wor worries that it would go out of business. The government made an investment in it a year ago. The stock's now at all-time highs in the span of one year. And if you go into any place and type in what's the situation in CPUs, there are none. Just like there was no DRAM. So we've now gone to where memory that's all because of the agentic world. So the problem is what was unexpected again from an inflationary component for this year was how fast AI agents would take over. That is the supersonic tsunami. That is the point of clawed opus 4.5 to 4.6 and now 4.7 mythos mythos all of them accelerated to a point that people didn't expect. And so there is nothing happening when you throw in what Elon Musk said. Elon said, "I need an enormous amount of CPUs." And there are three foundaries in the world. So, so people realize how long it's going to take to fix this problem. You need lithography. Well, that's controlled by one company on the planet. ASML currently, they can only make a certain amount. These are massive things that take a lot of money. Number you have three foundaries that are the ones that are actually making the final chip. Samsung, Taiwan Semi, and Intel. Elon did a deal last year, secure all his chips from Samsung on things he designed. Now he's doing he's he wants to do a terraab because he's like, I'm I can't have this the supply chain that's necessary for lithography, for the designs, to the foundaries, to get my chips, for my humanoids, my automobiles, my space stations. I'm not gonna have enough. This would be way too much. So Elon Musk is telling the world with his terra fab announcement, I'm glad you guys are worried about semis today. This is because digital employees came out of nowhere. But the next stage is not just the digital employees. It's the physical digital employees. And for those I need an enormous amount of chips. And so the CPU rise is not something that is going to be solved quickly. And so you end up in a situation where everyone is trying to get AI. And for AI, they need a combination of GPUs or TPUs or some form of that. But at the same time, they need this memory side, which is part of the issue we've had, and we need CPUs. So, we've already been out of transformers. We've already been out of gas turbines. We're out of switching gear. I mean, how many times do people need to hear this stuff and not realize this is not 2010 to 2020 when inflation was low and consistently low? This is a completely different period. We have reached the physical limits of what AI needs to accelerate to the deflationary point we're talking about. You need to build stuff on mass scale to get to deflation. So, every Eric Schmidt's talked about it. Elon Musk has talked about it. They're way smarter than you and I on this. I just listen to them and hear what they have to say.

Yeah, I am uh I might be too bullish, but I am very bullish on the fact that competition is coming in all these different sectors and Elon is obviously, you know, pushing the pace here. Um, but another component we don't really talk a lot because we spend so much time on stocks and and Bitcoin and stuff like that. In the private market, the amount of capital that is now available is enormous compared to what it was 1015 years ago. And I think that the venture capitalists have psychologically switched from go find the B2B SAS tool that's got you know very kind of capital light type model to now they are very open to kind of returning to where venture capital started which is like let's go invest in the hardware let's go invest in all these things and what that is allowing are kind I know multiple companies that are doing very hard things whether it's compute whether it's chip stuff whe you know something in the stack of AI they're raising out of the gate hundreds of millions of dollars doesn't mean they'll be successful but does mean that as they kind of hit the market over the next let's call it 5 years that impact is really hard to predict and so I just become this believer of like will the price of semiconductors be higher or lower 5 years from now I think they'll be lower now I could be wrong and it really just comes down to like is there more competition or not if we stay with three you know uh producers we stay with you know one company that can do the lithograph et like no of course they're going higher >> and to me that is the hardest part because there's not uh a lot of transparency into how many of those companies are there how successful are they going to be where's their technology at how good are they BD like there's all of these components to underwriting that unless it is your full-time job you kind of hear okay there's a couple of companies doing this this one's interesting this one's interesting I don't know Elon's probably the closest thing and he's very public about what he's trying to do so we know that but to me that's actually the question it's less about what happens to the existing guys and it's more about are these you know kind of early stage bets going to pan out or not. >>

So in the Dark Cash Patel interview with Jensen Yuan Jensen made it very clear if you take anthropics needs now. >> So when you see a revenue run rate that looks like this that is about demand. >> Insane. >> So demand is going at a pace we've never seen before. The reason we're running out of chips is because of that chart. Well, that chart can only slow down because we don't have enough AI compute. So, when we say chips, I don't have a problem because Elon has said we're going to have a bunch of idle chips that people have purchased sitting around this year, but that's not because of price coming down. >> Mhm. >> That's because we don't have the power. >> Power. Yeah. So again, when you say all these things, I'm going to bring it back to in the history of mankind, you need whatever innovation happens, eventually you're turning electrons into some output. In this case, it's tokens. >> So Claude is raising the prices of tokens right now for enterprises. And you had the Uber CTO basically come out and say, "We can't afford this." That never happened. I'm running out of usage. So, we're clearly at that compute shortage time. Now, you can say chips. That's great. But, as Jensen said, there's three components to this. There's the chips, there's the engineers that make the chips more efficient, which is what the Chinese did with Deepseek. But at the end of the day, you need the power. Like, you need the power. Power is the most important component. And that's why Elon is focused not on getting away from the foundaries. And again, he's going to build the foundry. Who's the fastest, most capitalized builder of competition? It's Elon >> 100%. and he's saying it's going to I mean he needs to do a massive size. That's why to your point I forget anyone who's raising VC money. VC money was meant for software. These are largecale investments. Part of that interview with Jensen Yu Wong he talks about his biggest regret. His biggest regret was not investing in anthropic. But the reason he didn't invest in Anthropic at the time as he talked about was I didn't have that kind of capital that they needed because the dollars that OpenAI just raised $122 billion. It's bigger than most S&P 500 companies. So those dollars being raised are because we need hardware, we need power, we need data centers, and those data centers are being delayed by politics. They're being delayed by energy. They're being delayed. So the bottlenecks that you're talking about to get to there, that's all well and good. It's far more complicated and it goes down. And if the Chinese say no rare earth for anybody. That's why this thing is a geopolitical game of commodities. And I don't want people to under I don't want them to underestimate the risk associated with supply shortages at a time. We have not lived in that world for most people managing money or going through. Most people are sitting in growth assets. If we can't get enough compute, what happens to these companies that are spending all of this money? And those bottlenecks can be power, they can be GPUs, they can be CPUs, they can be

DRAM. It sounds like what Jensen is saying, I got plenty of GPUs. GPUs are not the issue. The issues are the gas turbines, the politics of where the data centers are going to be. We need more power. And that's why when you go through terraab, terapab is to make chips to supply humanoids, autonomous vehicles, but also space data centers. He wants to go raise this money in terms of SpaceX to take that money, go build the terraab because he knows we don't have enough power on the earth for what I need and I need to go into space to get it. And he's not the only one that's saying that.

This is a very complex thing. It >> it it's so funny to me to hear him talk about this. uh the um like small nuclear reactors or whatever. He basically is like that's cute. You know, he's very dismissive and it is not lost on me that Sam Alman is the backer/cofounder of one of the most popular companies in that space and those two guys uh there's no love lost. >> It's going to be a summer to remember in Silicon Valley. >> But you know he's very dismissive of that idea and his whole thing is like hey in you know the sun is available 24/7. What are we talking about? It's the greatest, you know, reactor, but whatever.

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I have a friend who runs a business and they sell a lot of the hardware components that are used in the electrical industry. So if you run a data center, they sell you. If you're an AI provider, they sell to you, right? And they are not trying to, at least as of now, go and actually, you know, build the the full data center, go and get the power, etc. They are, you know, essentially selling you all of the component parts that are used. >> Great business.

He and I were recently talking about uh just talking about his business, catching up, and he said to me, he goes, "Yeah, the other day I was uh I I was googling what's needed for a space data center." And I was like, "What do you mean?" And he was like, "Well, I sell parts to data centers on Earth. if this is going to be a thing, I want to be the person selling components here. And you know, he's like telling about radiation and this and that. And I was like, oh, Elon kind of decreed and now you actually are seeing through the entire supply chain people are preparing. Now, do we get there? Do they actually do it? You know, a lot of questions, but >> that to me was I mean, he is literally the last component, you know, like like the smallest component uh supplier. >> Yep. >> All the way up to Elon. If everyone starts saying, "Hey, Space Data Centers," like it's coming.

>> Yeah. And and to that point, I I I wrote a report this week, which I'm releasing on the subscriber website this weekend, which is all about edge devices, which is so he talks about the need for edge devices. And what people need to realize is we're transitioning away from just cloud data centers and things like mythos mythos make it more important for you to have both on premise and edge approaches because if everything's in the cloud everything's going to get hacked. So people need things secure and on their own thing. It's why Mac minis and um and Mac studios and all these things are gone partly because of the CPU needs but partly because of the demand from OpenClaw and the agentic side. This report was meant to show people and when I went through it, I think there's 13 verticals of investments and there's about five names per. So I have about 68 names within there. Some of them are very similar to the thematic portfolio list I have that people have seen. But a lot of them are names like you said there's chips that have to deal with radiation because the one thing that's constant in space or down here you may not need the same sort of you don't need gas turbines, you don't need things like that. You have the sun but you still need semiconductors. you still need chips, which is why it's called a terra fab because he's trying to replicate very quickly or as fast as he can what Taywan semi he wants to get started right away. So he's out there saying and I mean I'll show this over the weekend he's trying to secure the parts already. So number one is he going to be capitalized? SpaceX is going to be fully capitalized and whether he takes 75 billion or 100 billion the estimated cost of the terafab is about 25 billion. So he just knows in his mind how many humanoids he thinks he's going to be producing and what he wants to be able to produce each year. What people have to realize about the the part that you were mentioning which I believe in. So I believe eventually when enough investment happens and we actually have humanoids, we will solve the the hardware issue. But we have to get to the point where we have enough chips to be able to feed the humanoids to be able to do this. We need a power to be able to do all of that. And so what Elon is saying is I know how many humanoids I need. Once we get into space, it'll be much easier to secure the commodities that we need, whether it's on an asteroid, whether it's on the moon, wherever it is. And you're starting to hear these conversations more and more. I think the most important thing of listening to Elon Musk at this point is two things. One is he believes that, and most people do at this point, for the next phase of all of innovation, space is critical to that. So that's the first thing. The second thing is when you read through it, his timeline is just compressed. And that means from an investor standpoint, I like to find situations where there's a problem of supply and demand because at the end of the day, companies make money on margins. And if supply and demand is out of balance and you get margins, that's what Nvidia has lived on still with 70% margins. So I care about margins, but what I really care about is what is the likelihood of this particular trend lasting for an extended period of time. So I don't need to be bailing out of things. I want secular movers. Apple was a secular mover. The Mag 7 were secular movers. I believe that hardware names that have a dominance in this that have an isolated thing, lithography very tough to have competition. The semiconductor makers very difficult. Um I think it was Dylan Patel said because we've run out of chips. We every chip is going up. It doesn't matter which semiconductor thing. Now is there a bubble component of this? Episodically these things will fall 20 30% like Micron did. Then Mike went right back to the highs very quickly. So I think people just have to get used to a market that trades differently in a 1970s style scarcity market. You get violent moves down, you get violent moves up. That's why when you give a data point that's from 2018 to 2025 and I go, we seem to be in something that's a little bit different just because of what's happening with semiconductors. But what do I know?

>> Bitcoin we didn't spend that much time on. Um Bitcoin has been rallying. It is up 16 17% since the start of the Iran war. It's up about 26 27% from the bottom of the 60k uh um fall. We still though are 38 to 40% off the all-time high. Are you getting more bullish? Are you worried that maybe this has outrun itself a little bit?

So, I think because there's not a single, let's say, asset that I talk about more on on this show over the last year than Bitcoin, I'm going to give you a I'm going give everyone watching my rationale behind this. So number one, um I am I have a macro belief that the endgame is about AI disrupting everything and people getting angrier and angrier about the disruption that comes from deflationary innovation impacting their jobs and their ability to survive and the government's need to provide the debt to keep them happy, but that debt keeping inflation at higher levels. So everything we talked about today, if I'm right, we're at a critical moment. that critical moment is that if inflation goes above where the Fed has rates, this is a new situation again. I mean, we're back in the 2010 to 2019 period where we had zero rates and inflation was 2% and that's when Bitcoin thrived. So, I believe the conditions which are not about negative real rates, but they're about a situation. The only way you have negative real rates is kind of this dystopian type situation where people are not happy and they're not making as much money as they think they should. That's the first thing from a technical perspective and an Elliot wave perspective. I believe we have just finished a correction and I've been waiting patiently to kind of build off the lows we made in in in uh at 60th,000. But it was correlated with software. And the reason this is important for everyone listening is I believe that Bitcoin from a an investor standpoint is most similar to technology. even though it has a scarcity component would make it much more like commodities, it's still viewed until let's say now in my opinion as a growth asset. So it was correlated with software on the way up from the AI movement and it was correlated on the way down. Something changed in software this week and that's why I did this video. The subscribers who are there, if you haven't seen it, go look at it. And I talked about we've hit an inflection point in software and the reason is because Oracle is not a software name anymore. Oracle is a compute name. Yes, it is archaic in terms of it being software, but Oracle has something happening now because we've seen Nebus go up. We've seen Coreweave go up. We've seen Coree's CDS come down. We've seen the Bitcoin miners lead out. The ecosystem of the direct relationship between Bitcoin and the AI world is starting to act well. When you run out of compute, that is important for Bitcoin. That fits in with the scarcity argument. So, do I think we're just going to jump out of here? No. Did I buy call options on Micro Strategy this week? Yes. Did I buy Bitcoin this week? Yes. Did I buy it last week? Yes. And the reason is because I believe that we're in the beginning of an upswing. Micro Strategy just broke above its 50-day moving average for really the first time since Oracle fell. It also has its 50-day moving average pointed upward for the first time since October. This is the way that I trade markets. It's the way I look at them. Could I be wrong? And could we go through 60,000 again? I guess, but I'm less worried about software having another every name falls. And I think we've now got to the idiosyncratic thing where the market is starting to separate scarcity software, which is what Oracle is because of compute. It's what the miners are because of them having the compute. That's a very powerful sign that you're seeing scarcity be treated differently. I think the software names are going to be under attack again, but this time when they go down, I think Bitcoin is going to be going higher.

>> I um I'm very bullish on Bitcoin through the end of the year. Um, it does feel like to me that the 4-year cycle got broke in the sense of you did not get the 85% draw down. It did not take nearly as long. You kind of shortcircuited this whole thing and you get this persistent bid now in the market. And um I wrote yesterday about uh stretch strc from uh micro or from strategy record inflows billion plus dollars of daily volume not moving off par impressive. Second is Morgan Stanley launched the ETF um they had over $und00 million of inflows in the first week. Single most successful ETF launch in the history of a 100 plus year old firm. Yep. And then third is Charles Schwab just came out and said that they're going to empower people to directly trade Bitcoin in the product. Uh and they reportedly are doing this as a response to Robin Hood. And Robin Hood has been growing, you know, at least twice as fast in every m major metric compared to Charles Schwab. It's just like Wall Street. Wall Street is now like this thing is safe. This thing is the thing that I can go I can let my clients buy it. We should get in the game. We should do this. And Morgan Stanley has historically been, you know, kind of a little bit slower to do this stuff. And so now that we're seeing these people come in, it just feels like that persistent bid is going to be there. And it that is a five or 10 year trend. So even if you don't pay attention to anything else in the world, it's just like you have a scarce asset. You're turning on all these new capital, you know, faucets that can pour into the asset, it's got to go higher because there's only so many of them.

>> So I'm going to direct this to anyone who's a running a private wealth management shop, an RAIA, any FAS that are watching. Um, by the end of this year, I do believe that you will need to have a very good narrative as to why this should be 3 to 5% of your portfolio. And I think the world is heading that way. You and I do this weekly thing, but when we started this, it there was a mind share of, okay, you've been in one silo over here and I've been in the other silo, and we both believe that the merging of the silos is about to happen. I think you guys watching that enjoy the show should have the two of us come to your RAAS and FAS and sit in front of them. we can do this show together but make it 100% about >> why Bitcoin because I think we talk about it as part of the context in here but we're getting to a point now where we both know the network effects are kicking in we both know that stable coins are accepted we both know what's going on I mentioned Bitcoin miners they are a part of the equation and for the people that run the Bitcoin miners trust me this is a good thing now that the world is out of compute so I say this again at some point you reach an inflection the inflection of demand and supply anthropic goes through the roof. Their revenue to to actually hit the 10 times that they're talking about. They need more compute. They just did a deal with Google. They did a deal with Broadcom. They don't have the compute. That's not compute that's as good as Nvidia's compute. Why did they need it? Because it's already built. They need it now. We are at a point now where Bitcoin should matter. The Bitcoin miners should benefit. And they should benefit because the world needs to find things that are scarce when we're truly entering a of abundance because of mythos. So that's my cry out to them.

>> Listen, I think that um I I see it right and we talked to a bunch of these RAAS um and uh we see it in the Sylvia product with the portfolios etc. is um I I always laugh that uh when the market goes down, >> if Sylvia is still growing assets on platform, that's a really good sign because when the market goes back up, it's a lot hell of a lot easier, right? And so when the market goes down 10% in the stock market, Bitcoin goes down, you know, 50%, you're like, man, this growth thing, you how do we get these numbers to go up?

Um, all right, what uh what are you going to do for your video this week?

>> Uh it's it's a ton on the compute shortage. It's a lot on what I talked about with edge devices and Terraab. Um, the main theme is that the other thing I'm going to highlight, um, and I hope you don't mind me bringing up there, there's been a lot of outreach around the globe for the stuff that I do, particularly the videos that I do during the one I did during the week.

>> Oh, you got to tell them what you built.

>> Yeah. And that's what I did. So, in particular, I've had a lot of interest out of Asia with some firms. And so, I took my video this week uh, and I converted it into Chinese and Japanese with video dubbing. So, it's me speaking Chinese and Japanese. So,

>> I saw a preview. It's awesome.

>> So, if you guys around the globe have any interest in having my content on your platform, reach out. I think this is going to be a big thing going forward. Uh, I was able to kind of work through it over the last couple months and now I think I'm ready to do it in whatever language people want to do it in.

>> Should we give out your email address?

>> Uh, you can reach out to me at jordyvisissard-labs.com.

>> All right. All right.

>> Easy enough. exclusive >> Jordy at viserlabs or visser-labs.com. All right, we'll put it in the description so people can find it.

>> That's a dangerous thing giving out your email, but let's see what happens.

>> I You know what? People that watch this show have been very, very nice to me. You've been nice to me. Um, not you, Matt. Uh, now you've been okay.

>> Jordy's going to get a bunch of you up 2 a.m. emails.

>> Yeah, I >> trading on Hyperlid on Saturday night.

>> I'm always grateful. Don't overwhelm me, guys. Please. Just you'll you'll stop my I'll have to change my uh my business ad. Amazing. All right, guys. Thank you so much for watching.