Mibe fektessek 5 milliót 2026-ban?

15,000 dollars, 12,800 EUR, or 5 million Ft. How should we invest this money in 2026? Let's begin. Any statement made here reflects the personal opinion of the speakers, which does not constitute an offer or investment advice, and is therefore not suitable for making investment decisions. >> Money Talk is the podcast. Tátrai Csaba, Horvát Attila, and Magyar Zoltán are in the house. We welcome everyone with great affection. Well, it's amazing, this is one of my favorite episodes. I always have the feeling that I still don't know what would be worth investing in, because so many good ideas are presented. Now, I'll quickly give you the warnings. For those who are already diligently taking notes on how they will double their 5 million this year, we cannot provide solutions now, because we will examine this topic from an investor's perspective. So, we are not speculating, we don't know which asset class will do something incredibly well, but we will present archetypes or mindsets that will allow for the planning of a 5 million Ft investment, or at least allow you to take away one or two thoughts from the moments of the episode that will soon be heard here. Okay, and Attila, do you have a thought or two to add to this? >> I would pass the word back to you, Zoli, so that you can add what we will not be discussing in today's episode. >> Well, besides short-term investment speculation, what else will we be discussing? >> Well, yes, regarding the short term, I think we should talk a bit more about that, and about what we will be discussing, because fundamentally, it's about investment, and then we'll discuss what we will cover, and you can tell me what we won't. We want to adopt a certain mindset through the lens of investors who think long-term. This means those who think in 5-10 year horizons, who are starting their investment this year, and whose wealth doesn't look like they have 500 million and are now looking to invest 5 million, but rather we are thinking of it as all their money, their 5 million Ft. I emphasize this because we make decisions completely differently when this is just a small slice of a very large investment sum; in that case, we are naturally willing to take on higher risks. Here, we will try to approach it with a slightly more holistic perspective, and we need to tell our listeners that we won't be able to say something like, "buy Tesla, sell OTP," because we won't be able to get into such specifics, especially due to the amount. Furthermore, it is important for everyone to see that they must first and foremost determine their own needs, requirements, goals, and possibilities, and then specific investments can be chosen based on these. We will blur this; we will think in big pictures. We will look at three main archetypes: those who seek security, those who seek a middle ground, and those who want to step on the gas. And then we will look at what directions might be right for them. And what will be very important is that we will say a few words to set the tone: in what way is 2026 different from 2025 or 2024, meaning, in what way is investing this year different from previous years? >> I like that. Well, these are what we will be discussing, and we won't be talking about anything else. That's my brief summary. So, in what way is 2026 different from 2025? I think one of the major differences compared to previous years is that interest rates are continuously decreasing, which defines the environment. In 2025, we started with Hungarian government bond investors being able to pocket nearly 20% interest rates. 1 million investors' coffers rang. Huge returns rained down on them. Well, that's goodbye, it's over. We can say farewell to that. Interest rates are shrinking worldwide. Let's accept that buying bonds is increasingly less worthwhile, but even so, I think real returns can still be achieved. But this is a part that fundamentally defines the investment selection. The increasing uncertainty also defines it. If someone reads the news, not necessarily even economic news, then we feel that it is becoming increasingly difficult to say where the world is heading, and there are more and more question marks. The fact that the euro is cheap, the dollar is cheap is also part of it. At the beginning of 2026, if we are recording this episode at the end of 2025, the euro's exchange rate is still at 389. At the end of the year, we see that the forint is starting to weaken, but the exchange rate is moving somewhere in the 385-390 band. What I think is also significant for Hungarian investors is the state of the Hungarian real estate market, as from 2015 to 2025, and we'll see how this continues, but we have seen massive growth for 10 years, not just in Hungary. We are amazed at the fantastic results that have been achieved here, but also in Central Europe, in Europe. This has been seen everywhere; if we compare it, there has been absolutely incredible growth in the Hungarian real estate market. After 10 years of growth, let's say that the probability of this momentum continuing is lower. And many influential analyses are already expecting that even if real estate prices don't collapse, at least this kind of growth, if not for the various huge real estate development projects, might slow down. >> The curve will flatten. >> Exactly. This is important because when a Hungarian investor considers where to put their money, they obviously wouldn't buy an apartment for 5 million, but real estate is always in the Hungarian investor's mind as a kind of opportunity. Should I buy government bonds, real estate, or invest my money in some other paper on the stock market? Well, it's already visible that returns on government bonds are also shrinking, and real estate is becoming increasingly uncertain. We will talk about stocks separately. It has always been uncertain there, but we will talk about it a bit longer. Okay, shall we start? >> Good, let's talk a bit more. I'll jump back to the forint, because international investor circles, for example, Bloomberg or Bank of America, are increasingly presenting the domestic currency as overvalued to their clients. And the reason for this, roughly, can be traced back to two reasons: first, Trump's policy, which includes tariffs and its role in weakening the dollar, and fundamentally, regarding America, this is again a long-term trend, general confidence is starting to waver. The second is the depreciation of the dollar, due to interest rate cuts, and also, from a fiscal and monetary perspective, and from a governmental perspective, it is a goal to weaken the dollar. As a result, this is good news for emerging market currencies, or as I call them, peripheral currencies. They can start to rise, and in addition, the Hungarian economy is not sinking into recession. Why is this important for a Hungarian investor? Because when they decide whether to invest in forints or foreign currency, as you listed in the introduction, at what exchange rate they can do it, then if we look at the long-term trend, we see a very cheap buying opportunity on the dollar and euro front. And if international investors fundamentally consider the forint to be overvalued, then very quickly, because we sleep a couple of nights, and the election comes, and I believe that this intensity from both political sides will not subside, this will fundamentally be self-destructive for the forint even in the short term, and we may become reacquainted with the euro-forint exchange rate around 400. >> You also have a characterization of this where they price in that the forint will weaken regardless of the election outcome. >> Exactly, yes, because it will certainly bring political destabilization, and the budget, and public debt, and we could list many more key economic indicators, these carry very, very serious risks. And then I've rounded off my statement, because fundamentally, if an investor is truly looking for, say, tax-free investment, next year the TBS account institution will still provide open doors for them. However, there is an opportunity, even in January, if they open it, to think in foreign currency cheaply, and if we are thinking in foreign currency, then we will not take positions in the Hungarian market, but rather look for investments promising real returns in the international capital market, if we have the appropriate risk for it. And as we explore this in our 2026 analysis, three major economic blocs can be identified, and we have spoken about these numerous times in recent years. Here we usually identify Asia and generally emerging markets, and within that, of course, China is the leading country, America, and Europe, the old continent. And then we will proceed on this path to see what options different investors with varying risk appetites see in these opportunities. >> And speaking of abroad, at the end of January, we are holding a webinar on the topic of Investing Abroad. This is a recurring webinar, it has received very good feedback, over 2000 people have attended it, so the link is in the description, it's free. Participation is at the end of January. Those who are interested, please register. >> Yes, I only heard that it's free, so I'm definitely going. >> I didn't want to. Okay. Now let's see. We now have our starting points on how 2025 differs from 2026, and then let's see where investors of different categories should put their 5 million. >> Well, let's start with those seeking security, those who want to play it safe. What will they encounter? They will encounter that you can still achieve quite good government bond yields in forints. It was a bit strange that at the end of 2025, the interest rates on fixed Hungarian government bonds even increased. This is a bit bizarre, you know, that everywhere they are lowering interest rates, and the Hungarian state is offering more and more. >> Unorthodox. >> Suspicious. Hmm. I am sure that if inflation is increasingly discussed internationally, that this specter of inflation is rising, this is bad news for Hungary again, because we will surely import it. >> Yes, because we are one of the most open economies, we are a small economy, our currency is vulnerable, there will be an election, and this will surely mean we import inflation. >> Besides government bonds, is there anything else for someone seeking security? >> Within government bonds, the question itself arises whether it's about forint government bonds. When we say government bonds, we think it's only forint government bonds, right? Obviously, it can be in euros, dollars, it doesn't necessarily have to be Hungarian. So, the possibilities are much wider than this. But the first point, I think, that an investor should ask themselves is, where do they see security? I see security in the forint, I see security in the euro. And then it will come to looking at where the yields are. There are quite good yields in Europe too, I think. I'm not saying the same percentage, but if we consider that if our unfortunate forint weakens by a few percent, then I think there are already European government bonds that could even yield more. If we are talking about emerging markets, then it is worth examining, for example, Asian or other emerging market regions, say South America, which we can purchase through an actively managed fund. Even balanced funds can maximize this conservatism in such a way that next year, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three or four times. So, if someone wants to stock up on bonds and position themselves well, this is also good, either individually or through a fund. And obviously, if we do this through a fund, we can utilize even greater risk reduction. And the concept of balanced funds helps in that with a lower amount, you can have multiple asset classes, meaning bonds and, say, stocks, in a portfolio. >> Okay, but then what would the portfolio of someone seeking security look like in emerging markets? >> Well, let's dive a little deeper. If we look at Hungary's rating based on the three credit rating agencies, we are just balancing on the edge of a downgrade. So, if someone pushes us from the side, for example, if we become junk, then it will lead to immediate forint depreciation, and bond markets will skyrocket. Now, if we look, and if the investor wants to compare Hungarian government bonds with international opportunities, then within emerging markets, we see government bonds or corporate bonds of many countries that are rated better, but we can only buy them in hard currency, through euros or dollars. And since we expect the dollar to depreciate and further US interest rate cuts, their yields are expected to rise. And if we don't do this in a concentrated way, as with buying Hungarian government bonds, but in an actively managed portfolio, then we already have diversification in itself, yield increase in itself, and we can really utilize many countries with a relatively small amount. >> Fundamentally, I think those who seek security want to avoid risk. And then, what are the risks, because it's not usually that clear what the risks are at all. Well, there are two schools of thought, either the simpler one, where we say I'm looking for security, I buy government bonds, and then I have the impression that it will pay the interest in percentage, and ultimately I can't lose my money, because it will pay the interest, it will definitely grow. And in this sense, it is true that what is written as a percentage, say 5%, will be paid nicely, and then I will see my yield for the next three to five years. This is the school that believes in the person who sees that what they want, what is certain, is that they will receive the interest, and then at the end, there will be more. And then there is the other school, which views it as not necessarily only the percentage of my yield in forints that matters, but also whether the forint collapses against the euro in the meantime, what is the inflation in Hungary, does it matter that, I don't know, the market might pass me by elsewhere. Some people view it as the world is full of risks. There is risk in the forint, there is risk in the euro, there is risk in the bond market. I mention this because one of the biggest crises in history is still ongoing in the bond market since 2020. Since then, there has been a collapse. Practically in 2022, it gained new momentum when interest rates rose in the bond market, and prices collapsed. This is still with us, where there are fundamentally risks in the bond market. We have also seen ugly things in the forint, where inflation can nicely skyrocket. Fundamentally, a security-seeking investor should also prepare for things that are not so straightforward. And whoever says that there are many risks in the world, and we want to be free from everything, they will say that then not only in government bonds, but then let there be a balanced fund, it has a bit of this and a bit of that investment. Perhaps gold can also be considered. Gold is a very interesting investment because if you look at its price, if someone is looking for security, I don't think it's suitable for them at all. But somehow in people's minds, it's like, this gold, you know, it's tangible. It's like a brick, you know, I buy it. Ultimately, there will be the same amount of gold now as there will be in a year, it doesn't matter if it's worth more or less, but in terms of grams, it's the same amount. And somehow, I see that many investors reframe this in their minds and view it as, although gold has a large range up and down, if they have such a tangible little piece of gold, then they have ticked off security. I think this is partly subjective; according to the major school of thought, gold is more risky, but there is also a question of experience here. >> Yes. Then both statements are correct: I am afraid of price fluctuations, so I buy government bonds. I am afraid of inflation, so I don't buy government bonds. >> Or not only? Yes. >> Uh-huh. Yes. So, the nature of the risks influences whether someone considers something risky or less risky. Okay. Yes. >> And then I think this is where the transition to the next category, the middle-ground investor, truly comes in, because somewhere the middle-ground investor also says, like a more complexly thinking security-seeking investor. The middle-ground investor defines themselves as, well, they don't want to risk everything, and they don't want their money to lose value, but they simply want to walk somewhere in the middle. Not necessarily because they can define these risks very precisely, but they can articulate the feelings that it's good to have it, it's not good to have it in a pillowcase and in a bank deposit and then get hit by inflation, and it's also not good if a crisis comes and it drops by 30%. >> Uh-huh. And finding the balance between stocks, bonds, and alternative assets is good for this, and there are very good programs for this now. Obviously, during our consultations, we talk about these things, how the trends of the past, say, 5, 10, or 20 years have developed in individual assets, and everyone can set their own proportions according to their taste, how many bonds they want, what percentage of bonds, and even there, we can divide the regions. And with 5 million Ft, we can absolutely achieve global diversification in the portfolio. And we can also include thematic and regional investments. What does this mean? Thematic, for example, can be artificial intelligence, robotics. In the classic case, we call these satellite assets, where alongside assets focused specifically on global or European, American markets, there is also a narrowed-down area. And we always do an episode about these. But if someone has the inclination, they can invest a few thousand euros, a few thousand dollars in such so-called megatrends, which, as they say, even a blind person can see, that this is the direction the economic ship will sail in the coming years. How would the bond-stock ratio look compared to the previous one, just to >> I think, I think the fundamental premise for this middle-ground investor, which everyone should keep in mind, is diversification, diversification, diversification. So, the middle ground means that I want to put as many things as possible, or as many different things as possible, into my portfolio, because then I will be able to avoid extremes. So, what Csaba mentioned are great areas, and he gave some ideas of 1-2000 euros. Well, it's no longer a middle ground if I put 10,000 euros instead of 1-2000 euros in a 12,500€ portfolio. Yes, because then it's not diversifying at all, but rather I have an idea about it, and then there can be many variations, like stocks, according to the classic school, we think in ratios like 60-40, 50-something in stocks and bonds. I think in recent years, it has also become quite acceptable to have 100% stocks, but then it should be a stock fund or a stock index, like, I don't know, MSCI World, and I wouldn't even mention the S&P 500, something in which we truly buy all stocks globally. >> All country. >> Yes, something like that, because, because I think these also fundamentally represent a middle ground within the stock market. >> Okay. I would still argue for the proportions. >> In a safe portfolio, the proportion of bonds is above 50%. And here, everyone can invest in European bonds according to their own taste, which classically has a lower interest rate environment than emerging markets, but even the American ones, for example, outperform European bond markets by at least one and a half to two percent in terms of interest. So, this is a good alternative, and it's also worth diversifying very broadly here. There are excellent funds, and I would add that it's worth supplementing these with active funds, because here asset managers have the luxury or expertise to make adjustments if inflation changes, or if central bank interest rates change. This is where the option of balanced funds comes in, and then for the middle-ground investor >> what would it look like for them? There might be even less than 50% bonds. >> Yes. Well, it could be that if it's a balanced fund, then they go all-in on balanced funds. >> Or, I don't know, 50-50, 50-60 in stocks and bonds, something like that. >> Now I'm starting to understand. And then we have a third category, the one who steps on the gas pedal fully. I'll start by saying that high returns and stepping on the gas fully should not mean, especially with 5 million Ft, if this is all your pocket money, your entire savings, that you put it all into Nvidia, or I don't know, buy OTP or Tesla with it. There is a huge difference between taking risks and doing something stupid. If this is my entire savings, or a significant part of my assets, then we should take risks within the bounds of reason. We should consider what happens if I'm wrong, if what I thought doesn't come true. Can I still bear the risk of this? Okay, what if, I don't know, I get stuck for 10 years because, say, I bought a small Indian AI company that doesn't achieve the developments I wanted to see realized. So, I think it's worth striving for diversification here too, but much more so, as Csaba also mentioned. For example, technology, megatrends, so here we can eye areas that we think will produce above-average returns in the coming years, but let's not choose just one, because the chance that we have the philosopher's stone and can say which is the one area that will drive everything is not high. Instead, let's choose four, five, six, as many areas as possible where we think above-average returns can be produced. With my clients, when I reviewed their portfolios in recent weeks, obviously with larger sums, but also with smaller ones, even with 5 million Ft, it works well to have this basic compartmentalization as a guiding principle: let's look at what assets are available in Europe, whether on the bond or stock side, emerging markets, and America. And interestingly, America, one might say, we systematically pull it down. And for example, if we look at an All Country World, even there, America is an astonishing 65%. It's unnecessary to add an S&P 500 to it, because it practically includes it. So, it's much more, and this is visible among domestic investors, that they find it harder to mentally switch to, say, emerging markets, because many of them are stuck through other service providers, as you say, for example, in a Chinese fund that has had drawdowns of over 40% twice in the last, say, 15 years, and there are bad memories, but in reality, emerging markets are not just China, but alongside it, there are many others like Taiwan, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, South America as a whole, and the Eastern European region, which you can see from the BXOT alone, has achieved fantastic results. So, if it's an actively managed fund, which is defined, say, by ESG or dividend payments, or specifically targets the Asian region, which has fantastic potential in India, China, Indonesia, Taiwan, much greater returns than, say, in America, then it's worth increasing this from zero to at least 20-30%, if someone is really in return-hunting mode. >> And, excuse me, alternative assets, in gold, most asset managers still see great opportunities. In the long term, even the principles of Raidalio's Allweather portfolio and any self-respecting portfolio managers always include alternative assets in the portfolio, so it continues to provide an excellent opportunity alongside the three blocks. >> Okay. And what would the proportions look like here, because probably the dominance of stocks will be more pronounced here. >> Well, either exclusively stocks, or I don't know, stocks and gold, or stocks and perhaps some alternative, but fundamentally, if someone wants high returns, they will find it most in the stock market. >> Above-average results from above-average areas. Yes. Well, the question is whether this is individual or through a fund. With such an amount, 5 million Ft, I would lean more towards funds. It's incredibly difficult to choose individual companies, I think. Just to mention, in 2025, the S&P 500 did very well, but five of the Magnificent Seven companies underperformed the S&P 500. Only two managed to outperform it. So, this is also something where you feel that a few companies are pulling the index. And actually, when you look at the annual results, at least in 2025, the sum was that those who chose from these large companies achieved below-average returns. So, the philosopher's stone is not in the hands of most investors. It's worth honestly seeing our own limitations. It's interesting to see the trend that as the end of the year approaches, more and more investors are switching service providers and coming to us to review the portfolios they received from other service providers. And it's typical to see things like buying the American market on a forint fund, in various currencies, where from the fantastic seven, say two or three companies, plus on a dollar basis, plus on a euro basis, technology sector, and only America. So, it's so top-heavy, and of course, it has worked so far, and one can say that, but I think everyone feels that there are good opportunities in completely different areas, but it is practically the only key position that everyone agrees on: artificial intelligence is overvalued. We have also talked about this many times. And obviously, it has a great future, but it also carries enormous volatility risk. Therefore, these proportions should definitely be reduced. >> Okay. >> I think we're done with our three archetypes. I hope enough information has been provided. There is a fourth archetype, which is some combination of these; we want to leave that to everyone, but if someone needs help with this, they can come to us for a consultation via the link in the description. It's non-binding, free of charge. Air-conditioned office, South American coffee, and filtered water. A good atmosphere awaits everyone with great affection. Webinar at the end of January. We wish everyone a Happy New Year. Goodbye, see you again. >> Happy New Year, goodbye. >> Happy New Year, goodbye. [music] >> This was Money Talk, the Investmentors podcast. If you liked it, [music] subscribe so you don't miss the latest recordings.