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These players are sneaky good picks this year, and it's not that they're necessarily like super late-round sleepers. Some of them are going in late rounds, but if you draft them, we think they're pretty solid picks in a range where you typically don't hit on a ton of your players. We're talking like ninth to 12th round. Those players matter for your bench, they matter for the upside of your overall fantasy team.
Let's talk about Casey Conceição. I'll tell you right now, guys, I'm going to draft a whole lot of Casey Conceição this year. And that's coming from somebody who like generally I'm going to be more rookie averse this year than I have been in past years with fantasy football. Just because with the way that these wide receivers are falling and even some of the running backs like Price and Love, I'm not super into where they're currently going in most fantasy drafts. But Casey Conceição is a guy that when you're looking at his profile, first-round pick, right? Elite analytical profile, pretty safe floor in the sense that he is going to be a guy who gets a good amount of targets and he's not like a big play or red zone threat. He's more of like, you know, for lack of a better comparison, a Zay Flowers in the Todd Monken offense that we're going to see in Cleveland. I think he could be the number one receiver there in terms of volume. In fact, I think he's the favorite to be the number one receiver there in terms of volume, in terms of getting more targets than Jerry Jeudy, and even more targets than Harold Fannin.
The thing about Casey Conceição is his price, right? When you're looking at sleeper over leagues right now, he's going in the 12th round. You're looking at ESPN leagues, he's going in the 11th round. And you're looking at Yahoo leagues, he's going in the 15th round. Now, obviously some of this is going to be driven up, but I think if you're playing in casual leagues, home leagues, work leagues, work leagues, things like this, you're going to be able to get him pretty low. And in my opinion, he's a slam dunk pick. I think from a volume standpoint, opportunity standpoint, he has as much if not more opportunity this year to get more targets than like guys like Mekhi Leamon and Jordan Tyson. Tay is in a similar-ish situation and is a better wide receiver, which is why he's ranked so much higher. But again, you're talking about guys in this range and and trying to find the diamonds in the rough and find the rookies or the unproven guys who end up hitting at a level with your fantasy football team where you feel really good about it. We don't have hard data on Casey Conceição since he's never played an NFL Snap, but again, he's in a situation while it's a bad offense, there's hardly any wide receiver competition for him. He was a first-round prospect, and he has a lot of immediate target upside, and he's going again in a range where you're going to end up dropping most of the guys there anyways. He probably would be categorized as a sleeper because again, he's going around the 12th round. But with Kasey, I can guarantee you that when you get to this range, like I'm looking even he's going highest on ESPN leagues. If I'm looking at other guys in this range, I mean other wide receivers, you're talking about Xavier Worthy. I will take I will take Concepcion over the guy that I'm pretty sure is not going to do anything this year. Uh you'll talk about guys like Khalil Shakir, okay? You can talk about guys like Zach Charbonnet at running back, Jayden Reed at wide receiver, Romeo Doubs going close to there, right? I I am easily taking a Kasey Concepcion over those guys because with those guys, you're getting like knowns, but their knowns are like limited ceiling. With Kasey Concepcion, the unknown and the potential high ceiling there could lead to a good fantasy football season. And so, I like Kasey a lot when I get to the 10th, 11th, 12th round this year in fantasy drafts. He's going to be the rookie I probably take the most of cuz I think he could have an immediate impact in his offense in the Browns offense for year one.
I think Michael Pittman is going to be a really good selection this year as well. He ended up being a decent selection in the seventh round last year, um especially when the Colts were at their best offensively. But now, he's going to a situation in Pittsburgh where he's alongside DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers obviously still the quarterback there. Not the Aaron Rodgers of old, but that actually ends up being kind of a benefit for Michael Pittman and I think what his potential production could be this season because Rodgers is limited when it comes to what he can do uh down the field, really pushing the ball down the field. And if you watch that offense operate last season, they were really asking DK Metcalf to play a role in the short to intermediate game that he's not made to play. DK should be lining up on the outside. DK should be the guy that they're trying to push the ball down field with who wins contested catch situations. And Michael Pittman really now should be pushing DK Metcalf out back into the role that he now fits while Pittman is the one working the short to intermediate intermediate field. Uh Pittman has been doing really really well in Indy since he came into the league operating as that type of guy, that kind of security blanket and a really nice third down target. Um when you look at his average depth of target last season with Daniel Jones, 8.2 average target distance what was that was 82nd among wide receivers. This dude was 19th in slot snaps. He runs a lot of routes. He was top 16 there. Um he gets a lot of target opportunity because again he's just such an easy target. He was dang near top 12 in red zone targets as well. So again, in that short to intermediate range of the field which is where Rodgers is really starting to settle, you're looking at a lot of potential target opportunity for what Pittman could offer there in Pittsburgh's offense this season. Aaron Rodgers last year um with deep ball pass attempts was middle of the pack. He was 15th in deep ball pass attempts. And when you look at his deep ball completion percentage, it was very very sub par. Um 22nd among uh quarterbacks in the league. He was also 21st in total air yards which was well under the actual passing yards that he had. So again, very much dependent on the YAC ability of the receivers that he has in that offense. And that's not necessarily the biggest strength of all time um that DK Metcalf is known for, but that is what Michael Pittman has been known for for quite a while. His yards after the catch last season was uh pretty dang solid and it wasn't even as good as we've been used to seeing from him in years past. He was 27th among wide receivers in yards after the catch. Um and unrealized air yards, he was only 55th. So again, a lot of what you're getting from Michael Pittman um in the short to intermediate is what you're going to get out of him um plus what he can add after the catch in the red zone, him being a proven red zone potential target there. I think his touchdown upside is going to be really solid here in an offense that was definitely looking for a complementary wide receiver to pair with Metcalf, and the fantasy side in the fantasy community, I think it's going to really want to favor Pittman over Metcalf with Aaron Rodgers at this point in his career.
We've been using the algorithm over on the on the live streams. We started drafting some real fantasy football drafts. You want access? Again, this is for every platform, every league setting combination. You put in your platform and your specific league settings, and it creates the perfect rankings for your combination of platform and league setting, right? It's going to tell you step-by-step in the draft who the best fits for your team are, who the best picks are at ADP. It's going to be again platform independent, give you your four factors. It's the best tool we've ever created, and it's it's $34. You get that, you get the rankings trade calculator on the site, other draft tools over on the side as well from a bunch of other good creators. And you're going to get again a starts it question, trade question for Nathan and I for during the season as well. Go check it out. Again, it's the season pass with code domain. It's 34 bucks. It's the best deal in fantasy football and the best tool in fantasy football, and you can't find it any cheaper than that. So, link's in the comment if you guys want to check that out.
Yeah, I'm going to talk about Josh Downs next, and a lot of you people who are experienced and and tenured viewers of the channel are going to be like, "Oh, boy, here we go again." But I'm serious. Like I I think we would be doing a disservice if we didn't at least mention Josh Downs in a video like this because you do lose the guy that Nathan was just talking about, Michael Pittman, from the Colts offense. And Michael Pittman was a 100-plus target guy every single year. And so, who do those targets go to? Well, I think Tyler Lockett is the biggest beneficiary of this. I think Tyler Lockett averages 13, 14 points a game this year in fantasy football, and that's why I have him ranked pretty aggressively. But in terms of Josh Downs, I mean, you're getting Josh Downs at pretty much the same level that we just talked about with like Kayshon Boutte, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Jr., Jaylin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Jr., Jaylin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Jr., Jaylin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Jr., Jaylin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Marvin Mims, Jr., Jaylin Hyatt, Zay Flowers, Rashee Rice, is he hasn't really been on the field the whole lot. Alec Pierce, um another guy that stands to benefit from the absence of Michael Pittman this year and the new contract. Uh right now at least it looks like he's dealing with an injury. Josh Downs is one of the guy who could benefit going to the guys who could benefit pretty heavily from that at the beginning of the year. Not that they play similar roles, he and he and Alec Pierce don't play similar roles, but it just was that Josh Downs wasn't finding himself from a snap share perspective. On the field near as much as he should have last year and probably will find himself in the field more. When you're looking at his game log last year in terms of his snap percentage, right? He was very rarely above 60-70% here. He was pretty consistently around 50% to be honest with you. Um and so it's been about opportunities. 25 years old, and again, when he's on the field, he's a very efficient and very good wide receiver. Now, in terms of where he's going in drafts right now, in sleeper PPR leagues, you've got him going in 12th round. ESPN PPR leagues, you've got him going in the 11th round. In Yahoo PPR leagues, you've got him going in the 12th. So, another 11th and 12th round guy where he could benefit pretty heavily if he just gets on the field more, and if they start utilizing him more. Because you actually saw Josh Downs earlier in his career, he he was he averaged 13 points a game in 14 games in 2024. That was up we are approximately 1 year removed from him averaging 13 points a game on 14 games. Like that's flexible production. So, this is a guy that's proven he can do it. He just needs to be on the field and get the opportunity more. And again, of course, the 2024 season that Josh Downs had directly coincided with the amount of targets he got, and he had 7.5 targets per game. So again, like what you see is the more volume he gets, the more productive he is, which you guys might say, "Well, duh." But at the same time, he was the most efficient in 2024 as well, and I think you could see some some jumps up in efficiency this year as well if he the Colts decide that they want to utilize him more. I get the sense that they do want to utilize him more, which is why I think he's worth talking about on this video. I do think he could end up being a flexible level guy. I think that's not outside the realm of possibilities here. And again, 11th-12th round prices where you're drafting him with like these throwaway quarterbacks, defenses, kickers, tight ends, whatever. Josh Downs is actually a pretty good shot to take to put on your bench in for fantasy season because again, who knows what's going to happen there with the target distribution in the Colts offense, especially if Alec Pierce is hurt to start the year. Because of that, Josh Downs, I like him in this range. I will be drafting some Josh Downs this year. Not saying he's like the big breakout sleeper candidate that we've, you know, said in the past, but uh doesn't mean that he still can't do some damage this year for fantasy.
Minnesota's backfield continues to be one of the uglier backfields that we have to monitor every single year, but it's worth discussing the price gap between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. I mean, if you go to the biggest price gap that I see is uh ESPN, when you look at ESPN's uh ranking of Aaron Jones, he's going in the seventh round, which is obscenely high, and it's obscenely low for Jordan Mason, where he's being selected in like the irrelevant range of the 13th round. You're seeing upwards of a six-round gap between these two guys. It really ends up leveling out to be about a two-round gap between Jones and Mason, where Jones is going higher than Mason um by by two rounds. Look, I I would just rather take a shot on Jordan Mason at a cheaper price because I have no more hope in Aaron Jones producing at a flexible level than I do Jordan Mason, and one of them, it's not Aaron Jones, is getting twice the amount of red zone touches and goal-line carries than Aaron Jones is actually getting. So, um the when you look at Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones's splits, it really is split down the middle when it comes to rushing attempts and opportunities. I just care about where those rushing attempts are. And in PPR formats, I understand why Jones is going higher than Mason because Jones is getting more targets and he's getting more receptions. Mason is not a receiving threat whatsoever. You're looking at like three and a half targets for Jones on a per game basis to Jordan Mason's one. You're looking at 11 rushing attempts for Jones compared to Mason's 10. Points per game, there is just under a two-point per game gap in favor of Jones last season. But again, if you see Jordan Mason's red zone touches translate to an increased amount of touchdowns this season relative to what he got last year, which was only six. You're going to look at that flip this season and Mason is going to be a decent week-to-week flex option that again isn't going to be sexy. There's a reason they're going late here. But it is worth noting the 30 redzone touches to 17 that Aaron Jones had. It is worth noting that Jordan Mason on the ground is a more efficient runner at 4.65 yards per carry to Aaron Jones just eclipsing four yards per carry. Look, this is this is one where Aaron Jones is absolutely fading out and Jordan Mason is just kind of a warm body getting carries there. And when I'm going to bet on one guy over the other in what is one of the most disgusting running back rooms in the NFL, I'm going to bet on the guy who has more touchdown upside and potential than the guy who's getting a mediocre amount of receiving volume anyways. Aaron Jones's calling card over his entire career has always been his receiving upside and there's just no receiving upside anymore. Like his receiving upside being 3.4 targets per game is not elite receiving upside anymore. That's the only thing elevating his production from like six points per game to just under 10 points per game. It's still is hardly flexible. Mason was hardly flexible last year and if you're going to bet on somebody, bet on the guy going downwards as low as like the 12th or 13th round in your fantasy drafts um when most of those guys are going to be waiver level anyways.
Yeah, then two things there. Number one, there are rumors at least early rumors that Jordan Mason could just have that backfield on lock with the point that Aaron Jones is in his career which. Yeah, I mean he was more efficient back. So. Second thing is people want to say, "Okay, Demone Clayborn. Demone Clayborn's a sleeper." Jordan Mason's going to score the points that you want Demone Clayborn to hypothetically score in a world where Demone Clayborn sees any snaps over Jordan Mason. Jordan Mason's the guy. If you want If you want to buy into an ambiguous backfield, you buy Jordan Mason. That's. It's totally flipped in ADP which was really surprising to me. I would have assumed that everybody would have assumed that Jordan Mason was going to be the guy over Aaron Jones, and that's not the case right now. So. Not.
All right, last guy here is a quarterback. There's always one or two quarterbacks that get drafted outside of the top 10 or 12 that end up producing at a quarterback one level, and it's like, okay. I think if you're going to take shots on quarterbacks outside of like the top 10 or 12, you take uh you take shots on quarterbacks that have the rushing upside. And for me, that year's this year's Kyler Murray. Um that that's Kyler Murray for me this year. Uh 29 years old and going to the the Minnesota Vikings. I think Kyler is lined up pretty well for a bounce-back season. Look, every year that Kyler was actually healthy, like you saw he was uh he was a top 10 quarterback in fantasy football for five straight years. He was top 12 every year but last year. And last year, like make no mistake. Like cuz they were talking about still averaging like the last 3 years before last year, 17, 18, and 18 points a game. But again, like that's still top 10 in points per game, right? It's the total points where it's like not finishing seasons in 2022 and 23 and 25. That's the big risk. The thing here is there is no risk cuz he's going to be on waivers. You might draft him in the very last round of your fantasy draft, and I don't think he's a bad pick in the very last round of your fantasy draft this year because again, this is a guy with rushing upside. He's now one full season removed from the ACL tear. Last year, he was still banged up some, and he got like, you know, people want to say he just got straight up benched. But a lot of that is just smearing Kyler's reputation cuz people don't like Kyler, and they think it's fun to smear his reputation, which whatever. I mean, do that for sport if you want to, go for it. Fact of the matter is, it's not like Kyler was completely healthy last year when they brought Jacoby Brissett in to start for him. And so, you have to keep that context in mind when you're thinking about like how bad Kyler was even from a fantasy perspective in five games last year averaging 15 and a half points per game. I think it is very, very possible that Kevin O'Connell, who is, you know, good with quarterbacks, but I wouldn't call him a quarterback whisperer after, you know, J.J. McCarthy sucked. It is very possible that he's very good for Kyler, though. Because Kyler is a more than a capable passer. He he really is. Like if you watched Kyler, especially like uh earlier in his career, I mean, Kyler's had seasons. His first 3 years in the NFL, he had almost 4,000 yards each of those seasons. He did that again in 2024. Again, Kyler in 2024, like we are talking about two seasons ago. Average 17 and a half points a game, threw for almost 4,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. Um all all while having 500 570 yards on the ground. Which again, if Kyler were ever going to get that rushing capability back, it would be this year. Again, one full year at one and a half full years removed from the ACL injury. And so, I just think that if you're investing in like lower end like dart throw quarterbacks, especially if you like wait to draft like a a Purdy, a Dak, a Stafford, a Nix, like later in your drafts as your quarterback, draft two quarterbacks in drafts and draft Kyler with him. Cuz Kyler with the rushing upside that he has in the new situation, there's a lot of opportunity for him to produce and return on value pretty big for where he's being drafted right now. So again, you're drafting him in the last round or you're picking him up off of waivers, I don't think it's a bad move for Kyler Murray because I think Kyler Murray is a guy that has more ceiling than most of the guys going in that range from the quarterback position. And we like punting quarterback this year, by the way. Pretty much always like punting quarterback. Kyler's a perfect like second quarterback to punt with. So, there you go. Again, all sneaky good picks. Um and I what Again, not necessarily sleepers, but guys we're going to be taking a lot of in these ranges. If you enjoyed the video, drop a like. Make sure you're subscribed. Make sure you check out the season pass if you want access to the algorithm. We appreciate you guys. We'll see you here with more vids soon.