Transcription
What's up party people? It's your boy Maine here back with another video.
So, we just keep tap tap tapping um on the yearly open here. We're getting very very close to uh this key level here. To be honest with you, this price action is starting to look uh like the bouncing ball meme but in inverse. So if I invert the scale here and I delete all these levels for a moment, right? You can see this is our support, right? And each bounce is getting weaker and weaker and weaker. So there's potential here that one of these ones is just going to finally break through this level and collapse.
Now, of course, anything can happen. The bouncy ball meme sometimes can break up but we are coming close to basically the apex right of this zone where we are bouncing another test lower high another test another lower high of course this is the inverted chart right if we uninvert it it's just literally higher highs slightly higher highs each time and the rejection off the level is getting weaker each time so we're very close to the apex of this move what does that mean volatility is coming.
If you look at the implied volatility, what is this [ __ ] uh implied V? What's the Bitcoin V? I forget what the [ __ ] symbol is. I should have been more prepared. Um, who cares? It doesn't really matter. The bottom line is this. The volatility has been low. Is this it? Maybe sort of. Volatility's been relatively low here, right? Relatively low. I don't know if this is a good example of what I'm trying to describe here to be honest with you, but we're coming to the apex of this move here. So, we're going to get a vol a volatile move soon here. And it's going to be up or down, of course.
But looking at how this is reacting here with these multiple attempts, slightly higher highs and higher lows along the way, I would if I had to flip a coin, I think that it slightly favors a move to the upside. That being said, this is pretty clean trend line liquidity. So, if they really wanted to [ __ ] everyone over, a splash down here, right, or even below this low before the move up could totally happen. Ultimately, I still think we are due for a test of in general kind of this area up around. We have that n I'll just get my levels back here. We have the 98k level and then we have the 106 level up into the weekly order block. I think we're gonna come and test this kind of zone here sooner than later, like very soon.
So, the question is, is this it, right? Or do we have one more kind of deeper fake out and then the move up here? Either way, I think this is the area that price is going to come to. And this is going to be the area where we determine, I think, whether or not this is a lower high. And we're going to look at a lot of things. We're going to look at equities. We're going to look at the price action up here. We can look at the dollar, all of that fun stuff. But I do think this kind of retest of 100K is still in the cards and the timing of this move is imminent. Um whether it's a few days from now because we want to pop down one more time or it's going to happen literally tomorrow or this weekend or Monday. Uh we're going to know very soon here in my opinion and it is going to resolve to the upside.
If we get some sort of splash downward from a trading perspective, I think there's a very easy trading opportunity. I mean, we've just been in this range, right? So, trading this range has worked really well. I took a couple of these trades in the Haven. I posted these in Telegram, right? We had these sweeps up here. We had the sweep here. We had another sweep here, another sweep here. We had a sweep here for this little move down. So, you can quite literally look at this, I think, and just take a line here, a line here, and then the line at the range low here. If any of these get run and then close as a sweep, similar to how we have this, right? It moves below and close up as a wick. I think that's a no-brainer long trigger.
If we break out of here, I'm not going to look to instantly fade it. Even if we get some sort of quick little snapback, I'm much more interested in being bullish because I ultimately think we're going to trade up to here. So, if we get one of these lows run in the next couple of days, uh I will be looking for reasons to long it. Of course, if it's a big [ __ ] you red candle and it just closes through everything, that's a little bit different. But if it ends up trading below here and then closes back above as a wick, that's a long I'm interested in taking targeting 100K. All right, so that's really the game plan here.
Um, I've been looking at all of the other stuff we've been watching. We have similar PA here on the USDT do uh the USD dom. Obviously, this is the inverse, but this looks like it's culminating to a move soon here. We're coming to the apex of this consolidation and if Bitcoin goes up, this is going to break down and that's obviously what we want to see. If Bitcoin's going to fake out to the downside first, we're very likely going to see one of these highs get run before that move down.
Equities had a bit of a pop, right? And I I talked about this over the last few videos. We either needed to see timebased consolidation, which is sideways, or I wanted to see a pullback. Is this enough consolidation, enough of a pullback to start this next leg to 7,000? I genuinely don't know. But from a timing perspective, if this isn't the beginning of that 7K move, it's coming very soon. Similar to Bitcoin, I think we're coming to the apex of this consolidation and the next expansive actual directional leg is coming. Um, so again, we want this up naturally if we want Bitcoin to go higher. Uh, but I'm not completely throwing out the window the idea that this could come down and have an actual pullback because this has been very choppy these last few few days. Even with FOMC, it's been pretty ugly PA basically for the entire, you know, month of December here. This is, you know, very shitty PA compared to these big ranges here. This is not ideal trading conditions, which is not abnormal for this time of year, right? December, we're coming into the holidays. Okay, so we're going to be watching that. We're going to be watching Bitcoin. I think we are due for this move soon, sooner than later.
So, I hope you don't have plans to, I don't know, not be on your computer and hang out with your family because it's the holidays because you need to lock the [ __ ] in. Anon, this is your only chance to make it. And if you miss this next move, you're going to be poor forever. I don't make the rules. I'm just here to dictate them to you. Okay? So, we're going to find out very soon. Those are the things I'm paying attention to here.
Um, other stuff I'm like not really looking at here. Like you could argue like some of these crypto stocks, where do I got them here? Um, you know, are are are looking bullish, right? Like they're looking bullish. These all look like higher lows, do they not? Right? Like there's your move up, there's your higher low potentially for upside. So maybe this is a clue that yes, Bitcoin is indeed going to break up. A lot of these things look quite decent. Um, so that could be a clue for us. um in terms of Bitcoin having that next leg coming. Some of the stuff might be leading the move. Um but ultimately, Bitcoin is going to tell us the story, right? We want to see it get above the yearly open, which it is yet to do, and get above this line on the long side. It's either a swash out of one of these lows, okay, or a reclaim of the yearly open and this downward trend line. That is your trade trigger if you're looking for one.
Looking at the lower time frame here, um, this stuff's traded relatively clean, right? We've had these big, beautiful sweeps that I showed you on the H12 here, but we also have like really clean fib pullbacks, right? So, if you go from your low to your high here, look at where that higher low formed. Right in the sweet spot. If I now take this low to this high here, right? Where did the next higher low form? Right in the sweet spot. We do it again. We take this low to this most recent high here. Lo and behold, look where the bounce occurred. Right where the sweep occurred as well. And right where the last one was here on the sweep. The last one was here on the sweep. So, it's been pretty orderly um clean PA. And so have the range high shorts. This is optimal for like range trading. Now, let's see the big move. These have been like move up, fully retrace, move up, fully retrace. I want to see the big dog move now. I want to see the actual direction breaking move. And I think we're getting close to that climax, close to that apex. And I ultimately think quite soon we're going to be seeing 100k plus Bitcoin. Um, and I'm going to be glad I didn't puke my spot at 80K. Um, right now 80K is like the get the [ __ ] out level. If we get a big close through here, um, it's over. So, ideally, what I want to see is a proper higher high here on Bitcoin. And then ideally I want to move that invalidation up to a more recent uh level. So I want to see a big move up here and then I want to look to sell that remaining spot on the way up here. Ideally as close to all-time high if not at a new all-time high as possible. I'm still putting the waiting much heavier in the lower high category.
Um looking at ETH here really quick. We had the big move up right three weeks in a row. We're now struggling a little bit which is totally okay. This is your bearish order block confluent with the yearly open. So this is a big level for ETH BTC. Ideally I want to see this continue higher. But if this rolls over a little bit, right along with Bitcoin going up and Bitcoin dominance trading higher, I'm totally okay with that. I would much rather Bitcoin lead this move rather than altcoins because if Bitcoin is weak, right, and it trades up here, but Bitcoin dominance rolls over and ETH and ETH BTC lead, I think the likelihood of a lower high is massively increased. Whereas, if Bitcoin dominance goes up and Bitcoin makes a strong move above 100K, that makes me believe that this Bitcoin move could have more legs and then we see the rotation to alt after that.
Um, other than that, I really quickly just want to talk about this QE stuff. So, I know I might look like an idiot sometimes. I'm silly. I'm goofy. I I like to joke around. I swear like a sailor. I [ __ ] post, but I've been in these markets for a long time. So has Mike Alfred. Mike Alfred has been here for a very long time. Mike Alfred has been on Twitter since 2009. Um, I don't honestly know what the [ __ ] he does, but he's got 300,000 followers. And it's crazy because he posts [ __ ] like this. The Fed will begin buying 40 billion dollars of short-term bills starting December 12th. QE is back. He doesn't know what QE means, okay? I'm not some macro expert, but QE definitionally, this is not a semantic argument. People like, "Oh, it's semantics." Like, they're buying [ __ ] It's closer to QE than it is to QT. It's just semantics. Like these people are [ __ ] stone cold retards. And it's amazing that some of them manage to still have money being this dumb. What I think is most of them, because I've met a lot of people from crypto, Twitter in real life, most of these people do not have nearly as much money as they purport to. They act like they're very smart and they're all knowing and you're like, "Damn, this person must be breaded." They're not. Most of these people are broke. Most of these people are have no clue what they're talking about. and follower account has almost zero correlation in this market with actual market knowledge and insight.
The definition of QE, okay, is buying long duration assets with the purpose of stimulating the economy, quite literally pumping risk, okay, shortterm buying. Powell said this himself in the speech if you actually watched it. The he's calling it balance sheet management. I think he like made an acronym. It was like RTB or something. But like it's balance sheet management. $40 billion for the next few months is nothing. Okay. The last periods of QE, actual QE were trillions of dollars in buying. They would have to buy $40 billion every month for years to get to $4 trillion, which is actual QE. This is a balance sheet maneuver. Rates went from four to 3.75. QE happens when rates are already so low that they can't cut them anymore. So, they need to find a new way to stimulate the economy, which is in turmoil. The last times we had QE rates were between zero and 0.25. And the markets just came out of the 2008 financial crash or during COVID, the markets were in turmoil. So that's when they inject liquidity in actual QE into the economy into the markets by buying these long-term okay duration assets in actual size trillions not billions okay because cutting isn't working anymore. They still can cut multiple times as the market eventually rolls over which is my prognosis going into this latter half of 2026. they'll just continue to cut, maybe pause, cut, and then when the market actually corrects hard, that's when the real QE will happen. I think part of the reason why Trump wants Powell out is he wants someone who will be even more aggressive with printing and with rate cutting. Even though I personally think as much hate as Powell gets, he's actually doing a good job. But this is not QE. Mike Al is a stone cold [ __ ] okay? He does not know what he's talking about. They do not do QE when rates are high and the markets are near all-time high. That's not how it works. Okay? And all of these people in my comments disagreeing with me are simply wrong. Use Google. Use Chad GBT. Look it up yourself. Do the research. Understand. If you're making financial decisions based on [ __ ] this [ __ ] maybe you should take 10 minutes and actually Google to make sure you know what you're talking about. And I'm not some expert, okay?
These are the last time four times that actual QE happened. Not stealth QE, not all the names that they're giving it, you know, oh well, it's closer to QE than is QT. It's like, well, you're closer to being [ __ ] homeless than you are to being a billionaire. Doesn't mean you're poor. Doesn't mean one thing is the other. Okay, this is not QE. QE happened here coming out of the financial crisis in '08. And over this period of time, look where the market was down 50%. And then they injected trillions of dollars into the market in the form of QE. They did it again here when the market had the COVID crash. Rates were like 0 to 0.25 here. I'm not making this stuff up. You can go look it up. It's public information. Okay? This is not when they do QE. We are literally in a blowoff top all-time high. Rates just got below 4%. It doesn't make sense. These people don't know what they're talking about. However, anyone can say anything they want on Twitter. It's amazing.
So, uh I think the biggest issue here comes down to this is, you know, we got guys saying, you know, we live through 13 years of the Fed, you know, resort to those extremes. Doesn't mean we can just wait around for a setup like that might be years away. Why not? Like when actual QE happens, that's the buying opportunity. Who the [ __ ] is buying the stock market now? Like what's the upside? We go from 6,900 to 7,400. Like we're in the 4,000s in April. This is this is quite literally one of the largest moves of all time in stocks with like no pullback. like the I don't think people understand the magnitude and parabolic advance that we have experienced since basically the tariff conundrum here right like we are up 44% in how many months is this right April May June July August September October November December in nine months and the largest we had is 5%. Like we just went straight up in in for nine months, almost a year with like no pullbacks. It's an insane move. Like it's comparable to this [ __ ] move out of the COVID bottom, right? Like this was a 100% recovery because the crash into it was huge, but even this had some larger pullbacks and a little bit of consolidation. We're in a blowoff top. Like just nothing to me about this is like the bull market's just getting started. Liquidity is coming. QE is just coming. I the issue people have is Bitcoin is not at all time high and they think QE is what's going to save their bags because they've invested in a bunch of shitty altcoins. They have terrible entries on all their stuff. They've made no money. Even though Bitcoin went from 15,000 to 125,000 in the same time period that the stock market, you know, went from, you know, doubled, crypto went up 7 to 8x, Bitcoin alone, not to mention Salana and Hype and all this other [ __ ] So, it's just showing you that most people have made no money this cycle and they're just trying to reach for any kind of narrative that will justify the fact that they're [ __ ] blew it again, right? They didn't manage to make any money because they made all the wrong decisions, had their money in the wrong [ __ ] coins, and maybe QE and liquidity is going to save them. QE is going to come when the stock market does like this, dude. like this is when they're going to do QE, like a year from now. Well, that that will be QE and that's when you want to buy. And Bitcoin, I think, is no different, right? Like QE is going to happen a year from now when Bitcoin's back in the 50 60 70K range, at least in my opinion. Maybe I end up being wrong about that, but like at best we get this, more likely we get this. These are my two base cases. And then QE happens there after the correction, not when the markets are at all-time high. And I think people are just salty and again latching for narratives because Bitcoin's not at all-time high and it has decoupled from stocks on the upside and they're upset about it.
Um, it is what it is. Uh, regardless, I'm I'm optimistic because sentiment has been ass. A lot of people think that this rally is going to fail, but the more people that start latching on to the Mike Alfreds of the world and just saying, you know what, QE is coming. Bitcoin's back. Let's [ __ ] go. Time to start buying. Ralph Paul 5-year cycle is here. We're going to pump all of 2026. Uh the more the better because that gives us the fuel uh for this to squeeze higher, maybe even to a new all-time high. Uh where I will be ejecting all of my remaining spot um and waiting to buy the dip next year because that's my game plan. But hey, there's only one way to find out and that is uh we just got to wait and be patient and let the days continue to go by. But so far, we did a pretty good job not puking here. Let's see what culminates at the apex of this move and uh continue to take it day by day. All right, guys. That's all I got. Stay safe out there. Love you. Talk to you soon.