Transcription
For the last two years, President Trump has been demanding lower interest rates, but we should be paying the lowest interest rate of everybody. I hope Scott's listening to this because we should be paying the lowest interest rate of everybody.
And when the Federal Reserve Bank, which is the entity that decides to cut or raise interest rates, denied that request from President Trump, President Trump then attacked the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, Jerome Powell, by calling him quote, "Too late, too angry, too stupid, and too political."
But now, President Trump has changed his mind. Because inflation is running so hot, life is getting so expensive, the Federal Reserve Bank is refusing to cut interest rates right now and is hinting at potentially raising interest rates in 2026. And as a result, President Trump is now saying that not cutting interest rates is okay.
Now, we've seen this exact situation play out in history before. So, what I want to do in this video is explain why we're seeing a shift in President Trump's mindset and what this could mean economically based off of history. Because while history doesn't exactly repeat itself, it does rhyme because we've seen money move because of this exact situation. And the people that understand this will be able to grow their wealth even faster.
So, let me break it all down. And a quick reminder that on July 8th, I'm coming out to downtown Manhattan for a free meet and greet. So, if you got value out of my videos and you want to come say hello, I would love to meet you. It's in downtown Manhattan at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on July 8th. We're going to reveal the location via email. So, if you are interested, if you're around, I would love to meet you and say hello. 5:00 p.m. Eastern time on July 8th in downtown Manhattan. If you're around, I have the link to a quick Google form. You can just enter information and my team will then send you the location as to where we're going to be meeting. That link is for you down in the description below.
Now, just so we're on the same page, let me lay the foundation because for the last couple of years, President Trump, who's a part of the United States government, has been demanding lower interest rates. Well, these interest rates are not set by the United States government. They are set by the Federal Reserve Bank. Now, interestingly, it's called the Federal Reserve Bank, but it's not a bank because you and I can't go with it to deposit money. It's not a reserve because it's not sitting on any cash reserves and it's not federal because it's not a part of the federal government which means the United States government cannot tell the Federal Reserve Bank what to do which is why President Trump has been asking and demanding for lower interest rates but the Fed can say no.
Well, what happened then was the previous chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank Jerome Powell saw his term expire in 2026. And because his term expired, President Trump was then able to appoint a new chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank. This new chairman's name is Kevin Worsh. And when he was coming in, everybody was now thinking that we're going to see lower interest rates coming sooner because Kevin Worsh is President Trump's guy and so he's going to do what President Trump wants.
Well, Kevin Wars gave a speech as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank and he said, "Right now, we're not going to cut interest rates because we're concerned about inflation and we're also thinking now about raising interest rates in 2026." That came as a little bit of a shock because everybody was expecting the lower interest rates and as a result, President Trump said that's okay. But the reason why he's saying that's okay is because we are starting to see some changes in the economy and we've seen this exact scenario play out in the past.
Let's go back in time 50 some years ago. In 1971, then President Richard Nixon was the president of the United States. And what he did was he took the United States dollar off of the gold standard which allowed the Federal Reserve Bank now to print more money and to fund more government spending which meant we saw a lot more printing and we saw the economy grow as a result but inflation became a little bit hotter. We saw inflation at around 4.2%.
Well then came 1972 and in 1972 now President Richard Nixon wanted to be reelected as the president. Well, how can you be reelected? You want a strong economy. What helps a strong economy? Lower interest rates. Because lower interest rates help stimulate spending. Because if you have lower interest rates, you can get a cheaper mortgage, a cheaper car loan, cheaper business loans. So people spend more money, which helps grow the economy. And then in 1972, the chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank was a guy by the name of Arthur Burns. He then said, okay, even though the Fed was supposed to be separate, he listened to what the president wanted and that he was cutting interest rates during a time where inflation was pretty hot.
Now during this time in 1972, what we saw was that inflation actually fell from 4.2% down to around 3.2% inflation when we cut interest rates. And everybody said, "Oh, look, the economy is going to boom. Inflation is under control." But then take a look at what happened next as a result of this money printing and a result of the lower interest rates.
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By the year 1974, now the United States economy was feeling the pain of all the money printing and the lower interest rates on top of the money printing when inflation was a problem. And what we saw in 1974 was that inflation then shot up. Inflation went from around 3 to 4%, not to 5%, not to 6%, not to 10%, but all the way up to around 12% inflation. This was higher reported numbers than what we saw during the COVID pandemic. again as a result of cutting interest rates during a time where inflation was already kind of high which then spiked up the inflation as a result.
Then the new chairman at the Federal Reserve Bank because now Arthur Burns was taken out the new chairman was a guy by the name of Paul Vulkar he came in and had to raise interest rates aggressively not to 5% or 6% not to 10% but all the way up to around 20%. Which meant getting a mortgage was very expensive. If you were paying 15, 16, 17, 18% a year on your mortgage, not 6 or 7% a year on your mortgage.
And this is where now the concern was, are we going to see a repeat of something like this? Because what we saw was in 2020 to 2022, we saw a lot of money printing as a result of the pandemic. Well, now in 2026, we're still seeing the higher inflation. The latest inflation report came in at above 4%. And then President Trump has been demanding the lower interest rates. Well, we've seen this happen. We had the money printing for the last few years. We have inflation at around 4%. So, you can start to see some similarities. And the concern was if we start cutting interest rates when inflation is around 4%. That could then spike up inflation in the future and then cause even more pain to the economy in the long term. And this is where Kevin Worsh is saying we don't want to see a repeat of what has happened in the past.
But now the question is if that's the case, what is going to happen in the economy and where are the investment opportunities going to move? Now this is one of the reasons why I put together a free investing master class where I walk you through how the changes in today's economy with what I call the perfect storm are creating big investment opportunities. It's a free investing master class if you haven't watched it yet. I will show you how today's changes in the economy are changing where investment opportunities are moving. If you haven't signed up yet, you're also going to get access to market briefs, which is my newsletter for investors, completely free. I have that link for you also down in the description below.
Now, when most people talk about interest rates, they're thinking about themselves. They think if interest rates fall, I'm going to get a cheaper mortgage. I'm going to get a cheaper car loan rate. But when President Trump is thinking about interest rates, he's actually thinking about something a little bit different.
Now, I've talked about this a lot on my channel, but you probably have heard somewhere that the United States government is now approaching something like $40 trillion worth of national debt, which means the government has spent something like $40 trillion that it doesn't have. Now, the reason why this is so significant is because the government has to pay interest on this money. The government is never going to pay this money back, but it does have to make payments on its debt because if it doesn't, then the country will go into default and we're going to see a global economic collapse. But the government has to pay interest on this money. Well, where does the government gets money? The government gets money from one place and that is tax dollars from taxpayers. So now when there are higher interest rates that means that the government has to pay a higher rate of interest on this $40 trillion of debt.
Because one of the big changes that happened during the pandemic wasn't the money printing. It wasn't the cutting of interest rates. It wasn't the stimulus checks. It was the fact that the government started changing how they borrow money. Before the pandemic, the government would often borrow money with long-term loans. 10-year loans, 20-year loans, 30-year loans, and they would lock in the interest rate for decades. During the 2020 pandemic, the government got a little greedy. Instead of locking in a 10, 20, or 30-year loan, when interest rates were at their lowest ever in the history of time in 2020 and 2021, the government said, instead of locking in a 2% loan for 30 years, how about we get a 1.9% loan for 5 years? And so then the government started getting these shorter term loans.
Well, those shorter term loans on this $40 trillion of debt were great for some time, but now those same loans in 2025 and 2026 are readjusting. And interest rates today are a lot higher than they were 5 years ago. And because those loans are so much higher today than they were 5 years ago, this debt, this $40 trillion of debt is now becoming so much more expensive. Not just because this debt is growing, which by the way, our national debt is growing every single day, but also because the cost of servicing the debt, meaning paying the interest on the debt is also going up.
This is why President Trump wants lower interest rates because as a government, we have to be able to manage our spending. Now, I get it. We definitely don't manage our spending very well because we're spending trillions of dollars every single year we don't have. But just take a look at what's going on. Our fastest growing expense is not the military. It's not infrastructure. It's not veterans benefits. It's interest on our national debt. In fact, last year we spent more tax dollars on our national debt interest than we did on our own military. So, you can start to see the problem. And now as interest rates stay higher for longer, that means the payments on our debts continue to stay higher for longer, which means there's a bigger burden on how the government's going to fund all of its expenses, which continues to put more pressure on the financials of our country.
And this is why President Trump wants lower interest rates. Because if we see lower interest rates, well then now all of a sudden this $40 trillion of debt becomes a whole lot cheaper. the government will then be able to refinance all this debt at a lower rate of interest. Hopefully, we would lock it in for a long-term loan. But it doesn't seem like the government wants to do that anymore. Maybe things will change, but that's the trend that we've been seeing for the last 6 years. But the payments on this debt would go down. And if the payments on this debt go down, that means now all of a sudden the government has less expenses, which means now there's more money left in the spending account.
Now, the government could take that extra money and pay off the debt a little bit more aggressively, but they're probably not going to do that. Instead, what President Trump would probably do, and this is not a Trump thing, this is any president that we've really seen in history, is they would take that money and inject it into the economy. And the reason why they want to do that is because if they inject that money into the economy, people get that money, people feel richer, people start spending the money, that grows the economy, that grows the stock market, and that makes the president look better.
Now, I don't care if you're a Democrat or a Republican, the reality is no president wants to see a recession under their watch. They want it to go on to the next president. And so if a president has the ability to find extra money, they want it to be spent in the economy right now because that can create an economic boom because our economy is measured through spending. GDP GDP is how we measure our economy. GDP is a measure of all spending that happens in our economy. Do you want to know who the biggest spender in our economy is? It's not mere you. It's not Nvidia or SpaceX. It's the United States government. is if the government can free up some more money because they can pay less interest on this $40 trillion of debt. That freed up money means more spending that can happen into the economy. This is why President Trump really wants lower interest rates. Lower mortgage rates are one part of it and car loan rates are one part of it, business loans are one part of it, but really it is to be able to boost the economy from this additional spending that could be happening from the government side.
So what does this mean for you? Well, higher interest rates put downward pressure on the stock market. It doesn't mean that the stock market is going to go down. It means it puts downward pressure on the stock market because that means that as an investor, you'd have to pay more money to borrow money and inject it into the stock market. And so that's where you generally see higher interest rates hurt valuations because valuations aren't as high as they would be if they were lower interest rates.
But the benefit of higher interest rates is people that have cash get better rates of return on their money. Because if you have money in a high yield savings account, well, now you're getting a better rate of return on your money. If you have money sitting in bonds, you're getting a better rate of return on your money. And it also helps bring value to the United States dollar. If you've been following the macroeconomic trends at all for the last few years, you know that there's been so many concerns about inflation, the dollarization, bricks countries trying to replace the dollar. Well, one thing that would hurt the value of the dollar is lower interest rates because lower interest rates due to higher inflation. Higher inflation hurts the value of the dollar. Higher interest rates strengthen the dollar. And so now when you start to think about strengthening the dollar, that then brings more trust and value to the United States dollar, which is part of the reasons why we've seen gold, silver, and Bitcoin get hurt so much ever since we saw the previous meeting by the Federal Reserve Bank where they announced that they want to keep interest rates higher for longer because gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all known as debasement trades, meaning their trades betting on the United States dollar hurting. When the United States dollar hurts, gold goes up. When the United States dollar feels pain, silver benefits. When the United States dollar is struggling, Bitcoin benefits. And so now, when you start to hear the news that we have a Federal Reserve Bank chairman that might be trying to help strengthen the dollar, those entities get hurt.
That's why it's important for you to understand this because our economic system runs on spending and the Federal Reserve Bank is a key driver of movement of money in our economy. And as an investor, you want to know where the money is moving.
So, what we talked about in this video is that the new Fed chairman, Kevin Worsh, announced that he's going to keep interest rates higher for longer. What does that exactly mean? We don't know for sure because he also said he's not going to give us any guidance as to what might be coming in the future. Although, he did hint that we could be seeing higher interest in the future. Again, what's going to happen, only time will tell. But based off of what we know today, if interest rates stay higher for longer, that's going to change how money moves. And there's a few reasons why this is so important for you to understand.
The first reason why is so we don't make a mistake that we've seen happen in the past. Because in the 1970s, what we saw happen was we saw a lot of money printing happened in the early 1970s when the dollar was taken off of the gold standard. Then at the same time, President Richard Nixon wanted to win his re-election. So he demanded the Fed cut interest rates. And then Arthur Burns, the then chairman at the Fed, decided, okay, we're going to cut interest rates despite the high inflation. Well, we cut interest rates while inflation was over 3% which then led to inflation quadrupling to about 12% in 1974. And then as a result of the super high inflation, a new Fed chairman, Paul Walker, had to come in and raise interest rates aggressively to about 20% which hurt the economy. It crashed the stock market. It crashed the jobs market, but it was able to save the dollar.
And this is where now we're seeing President Trump change his tone as well. Previously, President Trump has been demanding lower interest rates, but now he's saying it's okay if we don't get lower interest rates right now because of what's going on with inflation. By the way, a big reason for all this inflation right now has to do with higher oil prices. So, we'll see where inflation goes and we'll see what the Fed does in response to that. But this is where now the question is what is going to come next? And what we know today is that we're going to see higher interest rates for longer.
Now, from a government perspective, the reason why President Trump and the government want to see lower interest rates is not just lower mortgage rates, but because our national debt, $40 trillion, is becoming more expensive. And the reason why it's becoming more expensive isn't just because we're borrowing more money, which we are. It's also because the interest rate on this debt is going up. Because it's not a 30-year fixed rate debt, it keeps readjusting. And right now we have huge sums of this debt readjusting at interest rates that are a lot higher today than where we were 5 years ago. Which means the government now has to spend more of your tax dollars paying back this debt instead of taking these tax dollars and reinjecting it back into the economy to boost the economy. And we know that every single president wants to see a booming economy because it makes them look good. Well, President Trump would love to see an situation where we could cut interest rates, re-just this debt at a lower interest rate, find some extra money in our spending account, and then dump that into the economy to make the economy look even better. But if interest rates go higher, we don't have the ability to do that because it squeezes the United States government. That is the situation that we're in right now.
Again, a lot of this will hinge on where inflation is going, which is something you want to pay attention to. Again, we'll be keeping you posted here on my channel and in market briefs. If you haven't signed up for that, I have that link for you down in the description as well. But if you got value out of this video, the best thank you is a referral. So, if you could please share this video with a friend, family member, colleague, or fellow investor. That way, we can continue to spread this type of financial education. Thank you.
The United States government is approaching $40 trillion of national debt. And while most people are worried about how much money the government is spending, there's a quiet shift happening with our money that most people are completely missing. I'll show you. In the past, when the United States government would spend money it didn't have, it would borrow money from countries.