Transcription
Yesterday, Kid presented information as of June 29th. There are three key points I'd like to share with viewers regarding the price of gold. Before looking at the current price chart, I'd like viewers to observe 2-3 items. The first is the price of gold.
>> Uh-huh >> The following chart shows the past month. Viewers can see that it's in a downtrend. >> Yes >> Of course, it has fallen below $4,000. >> Uh >> $4,000 US dollars, and then it rebounded slightly. But if you ask if it's worth buying, most people don't have much money left. Anyone who has savings left to this point has likely bought it earlier, accumulating it all along. >> Accumulated all along, but if you ask what they are waiting for, they are looking for it to go down further because the situation for a rebound still needs to wait. >> Yes >> Waiting for something else. But the current situation shows that it has started to become quite sideways, moving horizontally around $4,000 US dollars per dollar. >> Uh >> But we can't be sure it will rebound. >> Uh-huh >> Because currently, the whole world is wary that eventually, there will be an interest rate hike. >> Or not? Uh >> Or not, by the central bank. >> Like tomorrow, when Kevin Wach >> Yes >> will give a keynote speech, right? At the ECB Forum. >> They will wait to gauge the direction of what he will say. >> The first keynote speech by Kevin Wach concluded that the biggest issue is that he must manage inflation. >> Ah >> This is the biggest issue. When everyone thinks they will tackle inflation, it means you will have to raise interest rates. That's the implication. Yes. >> But will interest rates be raised because of pressure on the bank, on the FOMC committee, or on the bank's consideration to raise interest rates? They are leaning towards raising interest rates, but will keep interest rates unchanged for quite a long time. Uh. >> Right? >> If they raise it, gold is expected to fall. >> To fall. >> When people see that the price of gold must fall because there will be a day when interest rates are raised, everyone says, "In that case, we'll wait." >> Uh >> Right? >> Uh, wait until it's finished raising rates to solve inflation. >> Yes. >> Right? And then they will see when the price of gold will rise. >> Uh. >> Alright, now many people think that if that's the case, during this time, people won't buy. Investors are not buying gold yet. >> Uh. >> But it's not just gold. Currently, money is flowing into the US bond market. Surprising, isn't it? >> And holding US dollars until the dollar strengthens. The dollar has strengthened a lot. >> Uh. >> What is happening? This is the first point. Of course, when interest rates rise, it means all assets will be viewed. Gold has no interest, so it will only be attractive when interest rates are in a downtrend. >> Uh. >> When people believe it's in a downtrend, it means that after that, gold will rise. >> Uh. >> Especially if everyone believes that interest rates will eventually rise, why would anyone hold gold when they know that gold will eventually fall one day? This price is therefore a pre-fall price. >> Uh. >> This is 1. >> Uh. >> But viewers, think about it. Currently, everyone says inflation cannot be controlled. But when we see oil >> Uh. >> falling, Khun Gae? >> Yes, yes. >> Below $80 per barrel. >> Yes. >> Around $77. >> Uh. >> From $90, $100, $120 before. >> Yes. >> We can see that in the future, inflation will likely fall. It will likely fall. >> Uh. >> But this means we are waiting for a test and a struggle, a short period, Khun Gae. >> Yes. >> And if oil falls, before, everyone thought that if oil falls, gold must rise because they go together. >> Uh. >> Gold miners. >> Uh. >> The cost is energy. If energy is expensive, gold must rise. >> Uh. >> Then one day, they said no, because supply chains are closed, everyone must sell all assets to buy oil, gas. >> Uh. >> Plastic. >> Uh. >> Fertilizer. >> Yes. >> Otherwise, an economic crisis will occur. Uh. >> Sell everything, gold falls. So, if oil rises, will gold fall again? >> Uh. >> When they say they will open, oil falls. >> Yes. >> Gold falls further. >> Uh. >> Nothing is rising. >> People wonder, which theory is correct? The interest rate theory. >> Yes. >> Is the decisive factor, and the amount of money that America must print more because it's unavoidable. >> Uh. >> The latest is that Japan has also raised interest rates. >> Uh. >> To 1%, and there's a tendency to raise it further. This puts pressure on the global situation: will you raise interest rates to bring liquidity back into the country? >> Right now? >> Not to mention the concern about the bubble bursting >> in America regarding AI. >> It's amidst fear. Today, many global investors are warning that it might be entering a bubble era. >> Uh. >> So money is fluctuating, going to be held in American bonds. Now, where to keep it? >> Uh, fleeing from stocks, fleeing from gold. >> Where to flee? Don't know where to flee. >> Ah. >> And bonds themselves, now, viewers, look. >> Yes. >> The yield on the 10-year bond, from 4.5. >> Uh, it's at 4.3 now. >> Down to 4.33 in the past month. >> And it tends to stabilize around this level. >> Why? >> Because people are rushing to buy, right? Until the yield on US bonds gradually narrows, becomes smaller. People still buy. >> It's currently quite >> stable. >> Uh. >> But it means that the dollar is strengthening, going into the bond market. >> Uh. >> So people wonder, how will it end? Kevin Wach is a very important variable. >> Yes. >> Many have analyzed that it is now clear that if the US government wants to borrow a lot of money, >> Uh. >> the US central bank will not buy US bonds anymore. >> Will not buy government bonds. >> Will not buy them. >> Uh. >> They will let it be a market mechanism. But the Fed, Kevin Wach has a different idea. He adjusted the criteria for commercial banks in the country. >> Uh. >> To have two easing measures. >> Yes. >> 1. Regarding their assets. 2. Regarding lending compared to assets. Two things. >> Uh. >> But he wants their assets to remain the same in quantity, but be able to lend more. That is, the banking sector will be the main channel for economic lending. >> Right now? >> So money is very hesitant. What to hold is still uncertain in this situation because the volatility in the US business sector is not easy. >> Uh. >> Even if you can think of it, there's an important gap, Khun Gae. >> Uh. >> When we look at financial liquidity, we look at the yield on the 10-year and 2-year bonds. This is advice from Dr. Wisit Ongphiphat. >> Yes. >> From Infinity. He said if it's very narrow, it means liquidity is very low. >> Uh. >> If interest rates rise, it will collapse. >> Uh. >> Okay. >> Uh. >> But if they lower interest rates, they face inflation. >> Oh, yes. >> And now, I looked at the 10-year and 2-year bonds. Oh my, the gap is so small. >> Yes. >> This means liquidity is currently limited, and the whole world needs financial liquidity to borrow. All governments are in trouble now. >> Uh. >> Especially, do you know, viewers? Most recently, China is definitely buying bonds, uh, buying gold continuously now. And importantly, the World Gold Council survey found that central bank reserve fund managers worldwide, do you know? 89%, almost all, are buying. >> They still say 89% expect that in the next 12 months, central banks will >> hold more gold. >> Wow. >> Currently, they bet on bonds, betting more than on US bonds. >> Yes. >> And 45% plan to buy more gold in their portfolios. >> Uh. >> And importantly, some banks now view analysts as viewing the tension in the Middle East and volatility in the energy market as causing many central banks to focus on other matters for a short period. >> Right now? >> Uh. >> Even though oil prices are falling, Khun Gae. >> But there is still uncertainty. >> Yes, they are still shooting. They are still shooting. And importantly, it is expected that in the second half of this year, central banks will gradually buy more gold. >> Uh. >> Not suddenly. Approximately, the purchase volume for the remaining period will be around 100-120 tons. >> Yes. >> Right? Now, on the investor side, it means that what we are seeing as a decline is likely a short-term technical decline. >> Yes. >> Right? Now, they see that the investment factor for general investors is that the demand for gold will be suppressed by the opportunity cost, as US bond yields are expected to remain high. Simply put, the 10-year bond graph from before, compared to inflation. >> Uh. >> Will remain above 2%. This means if you hold bonds, it's still higher than inflation. >> Uh. >> The forecast for the end of the year is around 2% until the third quarter. >> Uh. >> It will be above 2% until the third quarter before gradually decreasing towards the end of the year. >> Uh-huh. >> At that time, when the yield is like this, it will decrease, and gold will return. >> Yes. >> Now, many people think that when I said last time, one of the problems now is, uh, the team is back. >> Uh. >> Gold in the global market, oil too. >> Uh. >> It's bought with paper and futures markets. >> Uh, yes. >> But in the beginning of the year, no, in the past month, from June to mid-July, there were 2-3 major events. First, America itself is definitely experiencing volatility with its own economic problems, solving problems with bond bubbles, large debts. >> Uh. >> Asia is gradually accumulating gold and will continue to accumulate more without stopping. But they are reducing the amount of paper gold. >> Uh. >> Which is 9-10 times more than real gold. Trading. >> Uh, uh. >> It dictates the entire market. It turns out that China is now ending the role of speculative markets. >> Yes. >> All of China's speculative markets are gradually being eliminated. >> Uh. >> But they will establish a bank, excuse me, they call it establishing oil reserves, gold reserves, real ones, moving from Europe to this side. >> It will take another 2 years to complete. But in the meantime, they will open a formal gold trading center. >> Yes. >> Which will divert the market from the West to the East and reduce the paper gold market. >> Uh. >> Because if there is paper gold, it means there doesn't have to be real gold, so it will keep suppressing the real price. >> So it means China has the idea >> to boost the price of gold. >> Uh. >> From the mechanisms in the gold trading market. >> Yes. >> And whether it will succeed, no one knows, but it is definitely changing the global system now. >> But what the situation will be, we still have to follow. Let's just say these two books, viewers, hurry and go read them. They are very interesting. I will also go back to read them because there are many things I need to learn from Professor Taweesuk Thammasak as well. >> Yes, regarding the US-Iran case, which they said is still uncertain. Professor, because the negotiation team has another appointment this week, on Tuesday in Doha. After previously signing and discussing in Switzerland, there were still exchanges of missiles. >> This makes the agreement very fragile. Mr. Trump is still threatening. We have to see if there will be anything new from the Doha negotiations. But looking at the team, it's a smaller team. Because Donald Trump sent his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and the special envoy, but this time the Vice President is not traveling. >> Iran itself, which has not agreed to talk in Doha, but has sent a technical delegation only. They are preparing to go to Qatar and say there is no appointment to talk. Will it ultimately lead to a de-escalation of the situation, no more missile exchanges or clashes? We have to wait and see. >> Yes, this makes the current situation uncertain with the geopolitical situation, but oil prices are falling. >> Falling. >> But after falling, Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices for the second round. >> Uh. >> They believe it will fall to $75 from next quarter. >> That is, in another 4 months? >> A downward revision, yes, from the previous forecast of 90 to 890 and 80 for Q3 and Q4. >> Q3, Q4. >> But even though they are arguing, Houthi can still supply. They see the average price falling to only $75 per barrel. >> Uh. >> Yes. >> If it's $75, it means oil prices should fall. >> Uh. >> If oil falls, inflation falls. >> Falls without raising interest rates. >> Yes. >> People are therefore concerned that what Kevin Wach is saying now. >> Uh. >> That we are very afraid of inflation. It might be a mechanism to make the market fear that interest rates will be raised. >> Uh. >> To curb inflation. >> But in reality, if you look long-term, if oil prices fall, >> inflation must fall without raising interest rates, right? >> It's combined with Mr. Trump currently pressuring at the pump, Professor. Yes, yes. It's related to the election. Therefore, they predict that at the end of the year, gold has a chance to rise. >> To rise. Uh. >> Ah, at the end of the year. >> But people are questioning whether it will still be the same as before, saying that at the end of the year it will reach 80,000, 90,000. No one knows, Professor. No one knows in this situation because the world is changing its system. >> Yes. >> It might be a prediction, but no one truly knows. >> We have to wait for the final outcome. But >> I will reiterate that if gold, analysts say that the price around here is worth buying for the long term. >> Uh. >> Maybe 2 years, 3 years, 5 years. >> Because it's already deep, right? >> It's deep, it's interesting, but most people won't have much money left to buy. >> Right? Those who have money left are waiting.