Transcription
What if I told you that I had a tool that has helped us predict the breakout seasons for over 14 running backs since 2018? And what if I told you that we're going to use this tool today to predict the best breakout candidates for 2025? I would like to welcome you all to an exclusive tool only found at the fantasy headliners, the dynamic running back rating.
Headliner Nation, the dynamic running back rating is typically locked behind our draft guide. And the only way that you can get access to all of this information is by buying the draft guide and studying it vigorously. But today, I'm going to give you a little bit of a taste. Whether you have bought the draft guide in the past, whether you bought it this year, or you have never bought it before, we are going to take a sneak peek and a look into the dynamic running back rating to try and determine what running backs have the best opportunity to break out in 2025.
Since 2018, this tool has helped me predict the breakout seasons for several notable running backs, including huge seasons from Aaron Jones when he was the RB2, Derrick Henry when he finally took off, and his sustained success since then, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pard, Raandre Stevenson, Raheem Moer, and the list goes on. The most notable names are up on the screen right now. And if you bought the draft guide from us in the past, you drafted a lot of these players and some of them probably even helped you win fantasy football championships.
I just did a mock draft a couple of days ago where I took Bucky Irving in the first round and I am on record as saying that if you were at the end of the first round and the top running backs are off the board that I would draft Bucky Irving. The DRBR is one of the main reasons why he is my number one breakout candidate for 2025. Last season, he finished the year as the running back 14. And right now, his current ADP puts him at RB9, number 19 overall. So, yes, you can get him at the end of the second round, but guess what? If you draft at the end of the first round, he's not going to be there for you.
Our comment section was absolutely littered with people telling me how insane I was for taking Bucky Irving in the first round. But here is the reason why. His DRBR scores from last season were absolutely incredible. And the numbers up on the screen right now are the numbers that you would see in the DRBR breakdown if you purchased our draft guide. Now, if some of these numbers don't make sense to you, there's a reason why. you don't know about the dynamic running back rating.
Essentially, the DRBR utilizes several statistical categories and weights them into a final weighted score. And that helps us try to figure out what running backs have the most upside on a weekly basis. And I developed this algorithm all the way back in 2017. I worked on it for over a year before I finally brought it public to my followers. And I had a good friend who works at the Department of Homeland Security that helped me develop this algorithm. So, you know, it's got some brain power behind it. And essentially what I wanted to do was find a way to predict the upside for any running back in any given week because upside wins fantasy championships. And I want to take a look at several volume categories plus a few categories that help us try to figure out how efficient a running back is being. Their stats are put into our algorithm, produced through the tool, and give us weighted scores that help us accurately predict when running backs have a ton of upside. And based on what Bucky Irving did last season, he has some of the best upside that I have seen the DRBR produce in at least a couple of years.
Two areas that I really like to pinpoint are yards after contact and tackles avoided per attempt. Two areas where Bucky Irving was absolutely fantastic last season. And you might be saying, Kyle, he already broke out. He did that in his rookie season. No, no, no, no, he didn't. Based on what this is telling us and what my formula is showing us right now, what we saw last season is his floor. His ceiling is even higher. Last year, if you take a look at his 17-game pace, based on what he did from weeks 10 through 18, the numbers are absolutely incredible. Those numbers on a 17-game pace put him right around 281.1 half PPR fantasy points which would have been the running back five last season.
I really hope that you've come to this video after watching my mock draft the other day where I took Bucky Irving in the first round. The only thing I hope for more is that you were one of the people absolutely trying to bury me in the comment section for how stupid of a pick that was. I've got numbers. I've got algorithms. I've got tools. I've got information to back up my prediction of a massive Bucky Irving season. What do you have? A gut feeling? Huh? If you're using that to back up your criticism, then you need to be really careful because that's just the Taco Bell that you ate last night. And I wouldn't trust that fart if I were you.
Not only does the DRBR help us predict breakouts, but it helps us predict bust as well because I used this very same tool to tell all of you last off season that Rashad White would lose his job to probably Bucky Irving. And guess what happened? In fact, I just stumbled upon my must avoid running back video from last season and the absolute vile comments towards me telling me how terrible I was at this job, how stupid I was, and how I clearly didn't know anything about football because I listed Zamir White as a bust. Well, look how that turned out. And I'm not being cocky right now. I'm being confident because I've developed a tool that has helped our subscriber base, our members, and people who have bought our draft guide over the last several years win tons of fantasy football championships. So, if you want to doubt it, go ahead, ladies and gentlemen. But I wouldn't do it for long.
And if you want to dive into all of the data and get a huge look at every single running back and every single backfield and my analysis of every single team, then you need to buy our 2025 fantasy football draft guide right now. Because the only way that you can get the in-depth access to my DRBR is by purchasing the draft guide. What you're seeing today is a snippet and part of the information that you get, but I go team by team, backfield by backfield, and break it all down for you to tell you which running backs have the most upside and who you should be targeting in your fantasy drafts. All you need to do is head to tfhdraftguide.com. There's a link in the description below. Make sure you purchase it right away because football season is almost here.
This player right here will tell you just how much I trust my dynamic running back rating because it's telling me that Tank Bsby could have some pretty darn good upside in 2025. And I hated Tank Bsby when he was drafted. I've done a 180 on him as of now. Last season he ended as the RB32. He is currently being drafted is the RB41. and his DRBR paints a way better picture than Travis ETN's does. And you can see by the DRBR scores that Tank Bsby isn't going to give us a ton of help in the passing game. That's basically non-existent. But what he does on the ground makes him a solid contributor and a guy with a ton of upside every single week.
Last season in yards after contact, he ranked fourth. In tackles avoided per attempt, he ranked six. He was one of the best running backs in all of football at making people miss. But last year when he got at least seven carries, we saw a little something with him. And if you take those games where he got more volume, the numbers got better. A lot of time with running backs, the more volume they get, the worse they actually get with their efficiency. But in Tank Bsby's case, the more volume you got, the better you were. He would have scored on a 17-game pace based on the numbers pulled from games in which he got seven or more carries. He would have scored 161.6 half PPR fantasy points, which put him at running back 27 last year, which would have been a few spots higher than what he finished overall for the season. But that's just it. There was a lot of inconsistencies with the backfield and the offense as a whole. They dealt with injuries, including the quarterback position, the game play, the play calling, all of those things seemed really bland at time. And Brian Thomas Jr. was really the main guy that had a really good season last year because he got so much volume, it would have been difficult not to have a good fantasy season. But a new head coach that's offensiveminded, Trevor Lawrence coming back from injury. They've added Travis Hunter on that side of the ball. And now hopefully Tank Bixsby with a more defined game plan can be the main guy this season. Travis ETN to me he's going to be the pass catcher. He's going to have some PPR value. But if you're looking for the best bet to have a big season, it's Tank Bsby. And now that I've said that, I probably need to go shut my head in a door.
Another couple of guys that I got absolutely drugged through the mud on during my mock draft the other day, Kenneth Walker and Zack Charbanet. And I want every piece of this Seattle backfield in 2025 that I can possibly get my hands on, Kyle. Kenneth Walker's always hurt. Why would you draft him in the third round? Well, I'd love to get him in the fourth round, but I couldn't. So I took him at the end of the third and said, "Kyle, why would you draft Zack Charbanet a handcuff in the ninth round when you could have done so much better at the quarterback position?" Because I want this backfield. They are dynamic playmakers, which we'll see based on the numbers here in just a second. And not only are they dynamic playmakers, but their offensive coordinator Clint Kubak is known for having one of the best running games in all of football over the course of his career. This backfield, I want all of it this season, and that means drafting both of these guys.
Take a look at the DRBR scorings next to each other for Kenneth Walker and Zack Charbanet. There's one thing that both of these guys can do. They can pick up yards after contact and they can make guys miss. Last year, Kenneth Walker scored 100 on tackles avoided per attempt. Why is that? It was because he ranked first and avoided tackles per attempt at .40 almost double the guy in second place. That is how many people he made miss when he was healthy. Both of these guys are good in yards after contact. Kenneth Walker could have been a little bit better. He was at 22nd, but you know what? People have such a hard time tackling him that it doesn't matter. Zack Charbanet really solid in both areas. 10th in yards after contact, 13 and avoided tackles per attempt.
Now, here's the thing. Clint Kubak has made it known that this is Kenneth Walker's backfield. As long as he's healthy, he is going to be the guy. And I understand that he's dealing with a foot issue already, but what if he ends up being fine and he gives you 15 healthy games this season? You're not going to want to miss out on him. His 17-game pace from his numbers last season when he was healthy would give him 229.7 half PPR fantasy points, which would have made him the RB12 last season. So that right there shows you, hey, he's got enough upside to be a top 12 running back that I can get technically the fourth round right now. Kind of the beginning of it. But what if he does get hurt? You're going to need a backup. That's why you own his handcuff. Zack Charbanet, whose 17-game pace is actually even more incredible than Kenneth Walkers. When you take a look at the games, the six games that Zack Charminet played with no Kenneth Walker, he had 91 attempts for 433 rushing yards. He scored six rushing touchdowns and added 169 receiving yards on 19 receptions. That's a 17-touchdown pace. He was scoring one touchdown per game. If you give it 17 games and figure out that pace, it would have given him 298.2 half PPPR fantasy points, which would have been better than the numbers we talked about a few minutes ago with Bucky Irving. Zack Charban's pace in games without Kenneth Walker puts him as RB5 on the season.
Own this backfield. Get this backfield. If you don't trust Kenneth Walker, you don't trust Kenneth Walker. Don't draft him then. Whatever. Get Zack Charbanet for the love of God. Own a little bit of this Seattle backfield because everything right now based on the DRBR and what we're hearing from Clint Kubak himself, this running game could be massive in 2025.
Now, those are the main guys. There are a couple of guys a little bit lower down on the list that based on just their efficiency scores also have potential breakout candidacies ahead of them this season. The first being Jaylen Warren who was the RB41 last season because Arthur Smith basically ignored him. But he is far more of a dynamic runner than what Caleb Johnson is. And Caleb Johnson hasn't looked great so far this preseason. So, we'll see what comes of this backfield and if Jaylen Warren will end up being the guy to start. His ADP right now puts him at RB31. So, he's being drafted higher than what he finished last season. But again, it's the yards after contact, he scored 69. It's the tackles avoided per attempt. He scored 92. Receiving yards after the catch, he scored 62. Those are all solid numbers. The 92 is an elite number. The 69 and the 62 are very solid numbers. But last season in yards after contact, 3.21. That was 16th among running backs. Tackles avoided per attempt was 0.26. That was seventh among running backs. He needs to be on the field way more often. And hopefully Arthur Smith figures that out before week one.
Now last season, Jaylen Warren dealt with an injury earlier in the year. And that could have been partially to blame for how his overall season ended up turning out. Naji Harris played well last year for the first time actually. He was extremely efficient, something that we haven't seen since he entered the league. And Jaylen Warren is a more dynamic playmaker than what Naji Harris is. So if he can enter camp healthy and he can enter the season healthy this year, hopefully Arthur Smith sees it and he gives him more touches than Caleb Johnson.
When he returned from his injury in week six, the numbers weren't great, but they weren't awful either. He was averaging almost nine rushing attempts per game, 38 rushing yards, wasn't really scoring any touchdowns, about three receptions a game, and 23 receiving yards. And when you take a look at a 17-game pace with those numbers, it would only be good for RB 31 in 2024. So essentially a flex option, but that was last year after he dealt with an injury. But I just want to remind you of his 2023 season because he looked great a couple of years ago. In fact, the DRBR based on his efficiency scoring alone also thought that last season could have been way bigger than what it was. And unfortunately, we'll never know. That injury earlier in the season definitely could have played a toll in him not reaching his full potential. But now he's poised to potentially be the starting running back. And if Caleb Johnson doesn't pick it up, Jaylen Warren could end up seeing more touches. His 17-game pace from his numbers he put up back in 2023 would have had him in striking distance of being in RB2 that year. And right now you're getting him at a pretty decent discount. And if he ends up being the guy in his numbers in the efficiency categories mere two years ago and last season and he gets more volume this year, he could be a guy that you draft as an RB4 that ends up becoming a weekly fixture in your lineup.
For this one, there is not a ton of data because he didn't see a ton last year. And that's Trey Benson. In fact, you really couldn't even sort because the guy didn't even have enough touches to qualify last season. So, you have to go into the settings of several websites if you're looking up statistics and the categories and you have to sort it to all because if you don't, it's only going to show the qualifying players, which Trey Benson wasn't. But Trey Benson is the bread and butter of the dynamic running back rating. He is the buried treasure that nobody can really see. And the DRBR, well, that's our metal detector, and we're using it to find that buried treasure out on the beach because Trey Benson with scores of 71 in yards after contact, 78 in tackles avoided per attempt, and a whopping 96 in receiving yards after the catch. I tell you what, James Connor, you better stay healthy in 2025 because if you don't, Trey Benson could end up taking your job.
In fact, when you take a look at his numbers among all running backs, even if they didn't qualify, he was 13th among running backs with 60 or more attempts and yards after contact. And he was tied for 21st among running backs with 60 or more attempts and avoided tackles per attempt.
Headliner Nation, I'm not trying to just sell you on a bunch of numbers. I'm selling you on a tool that has an absolute track record of success. If you've watched me here, if you've watched our members-only videos, if you've bought our draft guide, heck, if you've been following me for long enough that you used to read articles of mine even before I did videos, you know, the DRBR is proven and it will help us find those guys that everybody else is overlooking and it will help us find the upside that we need to win fantasy championships. So, if you've used the DRBR in the past, let people know down in the comments below, how much success you have had with utilizing this information. And Headliner Nation, subscribe, like the video, and make sure you leave a comment down below. But most importantly, get your draft guide so you can get a full detailed look at the dynamic running back rating, including a bunch of sleepers and guys that I just don't trust this season because the DRBR is giving us a ton of good information that nobody else has access to. Stay safe, stay healthy, and I'll catch you all in the next episode of the Fantasy Headliners. [Music]