Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC, of course. We will do a big review since these last two or three days, I was not present. I took a little break on my end. It felt good. Anyway, not much happened either. Although there were things to do, especially in the short term. But there you go, we will see all that in this video. Then, we will of course talk about Ethereum, about certain altcoins that you asked me to analyze. I'm pulling up the list. I have GRT, DNB, and AVE. You can also, right now, give me in the comments altcoins that I will analyze in the next videos. And here, we will talk about the US market. So, I'm starting here with the weekly close on BTCE. We are still on a bearish close, okay? In 3 weeks, we have broken three major support levels. We went quite quickly from 110,000 dollars to 85, even to the lowest point here, 80,000 dollars. We are in an important zone in this previous accumulation where this bottom was made. For me, the weekly structure here is bearish because we broke this low of 98,000 dollars, which is not great. Now, yes, it's true, the monthly structure remains bullish. So if we really want to keep a bullish monthly structure, we really need to put in a bottom here. If we start to go below 73,000, we would break an important low here and we would have a high chance of going much lower. So this is a bit of a level where everything is at stake for what's next. If we don't manage to put in a bottom here, well, it will be a direction towards, yes, 73,000 dollars, which would still be a rather significant drop since we would be at -15%. So now, we have to wait, we have to be patient. There are many who are talking about a bottom too quickly. I see it lately on social media. The fact that we had a 10% rise here. We had a +10% here. This quickly leads to talk of a bottom, of it's off again. You need to understand that it's normal for rebounds like this to be proportional to the volatility we've had lately. With this big drop here, we went from 126,000 dollars to 80,000 dollars, a drop of -35%. Okay? It's normal to have a rebound of +10% here. So there you go, it's not because we have a rebound that it's off again to the moon. I see many here who are convincing themselves that it's off again. No. And for that, we will see just after how we can more quickly see if we are putting in a bottom or not. In any case, from an exposure point of view, I have slightly re-exposed myself, as I explained to you in recent days on BTC at the level of 86,000 dollars on this support level because I estimate that it is an interesting level after the approximately -33% to -35% drop we had. Now, it is a very small part of my capital. Why? Because 1, we have not confirmed a bottom, and 2, we are not at major levels like 73,000 or 50,000 dollars. So yes, I have positioned myself but it is very light, and I am waiting to see how the next weeks, next months will unfold on BTC. Will we put in a bottom? Will we have a continuation of this drop? I cannot know that in advance, and I will simply observe all of that. But there you go, I have slightly re-exposed myself on BTC, only BTC, because honestly, the altcoins, there are really charts that are not great, and apart from Ave, Ave, sorry, hyper liquid, where I am waiting for an even bigger drop to position myself. For the rest, I clearly prefer to wait. Now, I'm coming back to this little rebound we had because yes, it's a small rebound, admittedly +10%. I know very well that when we are in a bull market, and we get a +10%, I know it can go very fast. You see when we go from 106,000 dollars to almost 120,000, we are at +10%. Except it's not the same. The volatility is not the same. And in any case, don't be biased, especially by the rises or falls in percentage. You always have to consider the context. And that's why I use moving averages here, which simply allow me to filter out this noise. And when I have a rebound, I look at where we are, okay? Because we can have a +30% rebound. If the day before we had -50% and two days ago -40%. We will always be in a downtrend. And here, when I put my moving averages, where am I? I am simply inside the 1-hour tunnel. So we saw it together that we had a 15-minute tunnel since the drop from 102,000 dollars, which acted as resistance. We couldn't get back above it. Here we managed to get back above it. We see it clearly with a good break. We have even flipped this resistance level into support. Here, once, twice. Then we had a slightly more pronounced pullback. We got back above it to aim for what? To aim for the 1-hour tunnel. And it's typical of a trend, whether it's bullish or bearish. I also released a tutorial, for those who haven't seen it, you can go to my channel. The video dates from two days ago, where I simply made a tutorial on Vegas tunnels, which will simply allow you to concretely know how I use them and master this indicator. And here, classic, we get back above the 15-minute tunnel. What is the objective? To reach the 1-hour tunnel. And we clearly have a higher chance of rejection. So no, for the moment, we have no bottom drawn. We could have a first bottom if we start to go above 89,000 dollars. Break this 1-hour tunnel. Validate the re-entry into this resistance zone, and why not make a higher low and higher high in the medium term. And then we could tackle the 4-hour tunnel and have a much more significant rebound. But for me, here, we remain under selling pressure. Someone looking for shorts will continue to do their job in the direction of the trend since our trend is bearish. Even if yes, the momentum is weakening. Why? Because we were below the 15-minute, and you know I like to have a convergence of my tunnels in the same direction. That means a 15-minute that is bearish and a 1-hour that is bearish. When we are like this with a 15-minute that is flat, or even bullish, and a 1-hour that is bearish, it's much more complicated. Okay? I like to have, as I said, a signal that confirms to me that there is a drop on all timeframes. The fact that we are getting back above the 15-minute shows that there is a weakening of sellers, a loss of momentum in the short term, not in the medium term because we are below the 1-hour, below the 4-hour, but still that buyers have shown themselves. Now, I maintain that a bottom, especially after the structure breaks we had here. Here we put in a top from approximately July to October, November. So we did put in a big top. Automatically, it takes quite a bit of time for the market to put in a bottom. And potentially, for those who say we are going to the ATH, we are not going to do that. It's not possible. You see here we put in a top, and it took us about the same amount of time here to put in a bottom. To my memory, we are almost in a similar date range. If I start to look at approximately around here, one day apart, we were at 97 days. If I take from the break until here, we are around 56 days. No, the bottom was made a bit faster. But generally, when we put in a major top, it's this top that is put in in approximately 94 days, and here we are doing about the same, 70 days, give or take 20 days. No, it's not the same. I'm not sure if there's a moment, in any case, what I want to convey is that when we put in a top, whether it's this one, we won't recover in 2 days, at least a proportional bottom, we are not to the day, as we sometimes have, I think it happened on Ethereum, I got the wrong crypto, but what I want to convey is that after this type of top, it will take time here for the market to consolidate and put in a bottom. Very little chance that we will go back up in a V-shape. So there you go, we will have time here to talk about bottom confirmation. For now, as I said, I remain bearish.
So, we have had new weekly pivot points. Every week, we do the work of simply determining, observing together the new weekly pivot points that are created. This simply allows us to determine good zones like we had here, where a long could be taken, or it can be a good zone for TP, taking profits. You see here, we have a small weekly pivot point that acts as support here, which acts as resistance. So, the weekly pivot points. We have the main pivot point at 87,800 dollars, resistance 1 at 95,000 dollars, and support 1 at 79,000 dollars. So again, I remind you, I like to have confluences between pivot points and tunnels when I trade. A simple example, if we start to go above 89,000 dollars, I would personally look at this zone of 95,000 dollars to take a short. If, of course, I have a bearish reaction, that is not enough to take a trade, a pivot point, but if this pivot point is accompanied by a bearish reaction with a signal that tells me "Okay, sellers are showing up here," then we will have a high chance of continuing our drop and simply taking shorts in the direction of the initial trend. All of this, as I said, we will have time to see it coming. And here, in the very short term, we can still talk about it. We are a bit in a consolidation phase. There's a lack of momentum. For me, who trades trends, I have trouble trading when I have a 15-minute tunnel that is rather flat, where I don't have any particular confluence with another level. You see here, it's interesting. We have the 15-minute with the 3-minute with the daily pivot point to play these kinds of rebounds. It's quite good. But when we are like this on a flat tunnel, with pivot points that are not particularly inside, I know I will have fewer setups that will trigger. That's it for BTC. I've generally covered everything. My bias hasn't changed. I remain very cautious. I remain rather bearish. I am also waiting for the Fed meeting in 15 days for the next meeting. Here, the next FOMC, as I said, is in 15 days. We are anticipating a rate cut, which is simply expected. But we see that the US market can perform quite well, but over the last two or three days. But cryptos are not rebounding as strongly. Okay. I will transition to the US market now. Well, we saw that we had validated this market top structure. Since we broke it, I've been rather wary. Honestly, to become bullish again, it would be good to get back above 6800. That would be bullish for cryptos. But we see that here on the S&P 500, we had a rebound of about -3% to +3% to +4% approximately. Whereas on cryptos, +10%, which is not huge given the rebound in the US market. Especially since it did not lose -33%. It had a drop of -6%, half of which has already been recovered. So I think most investors, traders are waiting for the next FOMC. Okay? First of all, will we have a rate cut? Will we not have a rate cut, depending on the next data we see, the next announcements? That will play an important role, and I think we will have volatility in the coming weeks while waiting for the next FOMC. We are potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders. It is not yet confirmed, but we could have a sort of shoulder, not inverse, a classic head and shoulders, shoulder, head, and here the shoulder. Is it validated? Absolutely not for the moment. We are not anticipating the validation of a break. What I see here is that we have two major levels. This resistance zone, if we get back above it, it's rather bullish. We have a high chance of making a new ATH. If we reject, well, we will have to watch the 6500 level. And if we go below this level and it doesn't hold, then there will be a high chance of putting in a market top and having a more significant retracement, particularly to come back and test this support level, which is in confluence, if I recall correctly, with the... No, I thought it was in confluence with the daily tunnel, but no, we have already passed it. Well, in any case, I am not anticipating. We are a bit stuck in a range on the S&P 500, which is a bit of a relief, because since April, it has been only up. We see it clearly here, the moving averages, the 4-hour which has long served as support. And here, we clearly see the inversion, the 4-hour holding, holding, holding, holding until the 1-hour crosses back below the 4-hour. The 4-hour, if we reject, well, it would also be good to get back above these moving averages and have a 1-hour that crosses back above the 4-hour. We will see, as I said, all of this in the coming hours, the coming days, but it will be very important to watch the S&P 500 to also see how BTC will behave, because historically, there has always been a correlation between the two. And if the S&P 500 puts in a top, cryptos will also suffer.
Regarding Ethereum, a rebound from 2600 to approximately 3000 dollars. For me, it has flipped this support level into resistance. It's rather a major intervention zone here. I won't specifically use it for intraday or swing trading. It's just to show that we are in an intervention zone, simply between this zone, which is quite large, extending from approximately 2008 to 3000. We are talking long term. I remind you, I work in stages. I'm not here saying, "Yes, I draw a line at 4250. If we go to 4250 and 1 dollar, that's it, we've broken it." No, that's not how it works when you trade, when you invest, you proceed with zones. See this zone, I've talked about it for a long time. I told you clearly, if we lose and settle below 3008 Ethereum, it's a straight line to 3000 dollars. We even went below 3000 dollars, to 2600. We still have no bottom in place. If I put moving averages here, well, we still have a 1-hour that acts as resistance, okay, still in a downtrend, and as long as we remain in a downtrend, the objective is the next support level, 2200. Altcoins, will we go there right away? For me, we can consolidate after such a drop. There's a high chance the market will enter a range here. And if we start to break the 1-hour tunnel, well, we'll have to watch the 4-hour tunnel. Now, as I said, after such a drop, yes, there's a higher chance of a continuation of the drop, because in a downtrend, ranges are more likely to break downwards, and rebounds are more likely to be simply traps to lead to a new bearish leg. That was the case here. That was the case on smaller rebounds in the short term. Will that be the case here? I don't know. What is certain is that from a probability point of view, yes, there's a higher chance. Now, well, it's like in a downtrend. See here, a rebound, it's to make a new bearish leg. Here, a rebound, new bearish leg. Here, a rebound, new bearish leg as well, here, here as well. Except at some point, well, it's no longer to make a bearish leg, it's to put in a bottom. Now, is it here? Is it here? I can't anticipate. And that's why we never try to anticipate what will happen. We simply react to what we see. What I see for now is that we remain in a downtrend, and our averages are still oriented downwards. Regarding the pivot points, we have the support, our weekly main pivot point support at 2880, resistance 1 at 3140, and support 1 at 2540. So again, intervention levels to watch, and simply, these can be good zones for taking shorts, for taking longs, for TP. There, it's up to you to see, but historically, pivot points, even on Ethereum, are levels that work quite well, whether they are monthly pivot points or weekly pivot points, they are intervention levels where we often have buying or selling reactions. So that's it for the altcoins. I'll talk a bit about Total, Total 3. Let's switch to a weekly view because we have rejected quite a bit. We haven't really structured a market top on Total 3. We are generally stuck in a range. It's simple, we are in a big range, and here we are forming a smaller range on Total 3. Now, what is Total 3? It's all altcoins excluding BTC and Ethereum. Okay? This simply allows us to filter and exclude the two giants that can influence this chart, because if I take Total, you see, we are making a new ATH. If I take Total 3, we are not making a new ATH, or only slightly, we are not settling above it. Where are we? Well, we have indeed crossed back, and it would be good to keep this level to maintain the structure. If we start to settle below this level, it would not be good. We would reverse our structure, and it would potentially be to go back and test a lower extremity or have a more significant correction. You see, during the previous cycle, we retraced quite a bit. We went back to test the ATH. We had a drop of approximately -70%. If we do the same, -70%, well, that brings us almost all the way down. If we assume that with the cycles, we have less significant drops, perhaps -60%, and go back to test this support level. In any case, for the moment, we also remain in a bearish dynamic. Total is the same. Well, the advantage is that Total, as I said, has made a new ATH. Now, it looks quite similar to the BTC chart, at a minimum. We don't see it 100%, as we include all altcoins, we also include Ethereum, but it's roughly similar in the sense that here we made a new summit, we re-entered, if I switch to daily, we clearly see the distribution pattern, and we are coming back to test this level, and we have this big level as well that must hold. So for the moment, we also remain on Total 2. Total 2 is simply altcoins and Ethereum excluding BTC. We clearly remain in rather bearish dynamics. So be wary of your altcoins. Yes, there can be altcoins that stand out. It happens. For example, today, Kaspa is standing out. These are altcoins for those who do intraday trading. It can be interesting simply because we take an altcoin that stands out and we say, "Okay, there's momentum, I'm taking Kaspa, there's momentum, something is happening. Okay, I'll try to trade the trend, trade the flow." You see, it reminds me of ICP. I'll show you a trade we took on ICP. I showed you ICP waking up. It's the only one waking up. I said, "Okay, a return of momentum, well, I'm entering aggressively, a clear invalidation, and I'm trying to reach points of interest." Will we do the same on Kaspa? I don't know. In any case, I clearly preferred the accumulation zone that ICP had over Kaspa. That's why it prompted me to take this trade, and the context was clearly different. BTC was a bit less bearish, but on Kaspa, we have retraced quite a bit. We are coming back to test an interesting long-term zone at the 0.786 level. I remember Kaspa, when we were in this zone, I was the first to say, "We are too high, wait to come back and test much lower. Try to get professional entries. You put in Fibonacci levels, interesting levels. No, Kaspa will continue to rise, it's impossible that it will stop there. It can't retrace." You see, it's like Tao, it's like all those altcoins. They all end up coming back to test their long-term reload zones. Ideally, if there's an even bigger dump, the 0.886 is a good zone. Now, yes, in the long term, we remain in a bearish flow. Now, if we start to regain some momentum, get back above, you see, get back above the 1-hour, above the 4-hour, then we could revisit this zone, fill this imbalance zone, come back to test this daily tunnel, that's a good zone to take, to aim to take a TP. We are at about a 45% rise. After that, it's up to you to see if it's worth it, if you have good risk, if your strategy triggers. But currently, I find it difficult to long altcoins. We don't have any that stand out, it would be much more for the short term.
So, I was asked about certain altcoins, as I told you. I was asked about GRT. Let's see. GRT, where are we? I'll erase everything. Well, we made a new low. Tell yourself, really, it's perhaps difficult to accept for some, especially for people who are 100% in altcoins, but the majority of altcoins will not make a new ATH, and the majority of altcoins are underperforming BTC. You just have to look at where is Total 3 divided by BTC. We clearly see that during this entire phase of 2022, 2023, BTC has outperformed the majority of altcoins. And when I look at certain altcoins like GRT here, well, they haven't done much. Now, yes, if I take from the lowest point here and take the highest point, yes, we are at 1x8, 1x7, almost 1x8. So yes, okay, there's performance, but that's if you have the lowest point, the highest point, which is very unlikely. When I look at this kind of chart, what do I see? I see an altcoin that hasn't made a new ATH, that doesn't have a strong bullish trend, while BTC has made a new ATH. And where is it now? At its lows from 2022. Certainly, the accumulation zone is great. We are in an excellent accumulation zone, and clearly, we are in a zone where we can put in a bottom. Except that we have no signs of a bottom. We are still in a bearish dynamic. We are still making lower lows and lower highs. And we are in a context where I would rather look for shorts. Now, I am at a major support level. That's what's complicated. In the long term. The only signal that could make me position myself is a weekly pattern. A signal, we get back above the short and medium-term averages, we have this type of pattern. Then, if we have that, okay, we could revisit, for example, at a minimum, the 12 cents. That could be a first target, which would be approximately a 2x from there. Except that for the moment, we don't have this pattern. And I clearly have an invalidation if I'm looking for longs with this type of pattern, where I say if we start to have a close and settlement below this level, which is the case currently, we already have a weekly close below. So we have a confirmation in closing that we are making an ATL, an all-time low. If we have acceptance and we don't re-enter, then it's the exit of this phase from the bottom, of this range from the bottom, and we will have a chance to have a continuation of the drop. So it's not the most bullish altcoin currently.
Now, I was asked about BNB, specifying, well, I need to specify what are the interesting zones for retracement. Now, be careful, the goal is not to give investment advice. I remind you that the videos I make daily are not with the aim of telling you what to do, how to manage your portfolios, telling you what position you should take. That is really important to understand. I don't do copy trading, I don't do any of that. My goal is simply to make you autonomous, to show you how I analyze, to give you tips. Okay? And I know that over time, by watching my videos, after 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, with the feedback I get, you will progress, I guarantee it. But don't just look for the answer you need to know if you should buy or sell. Firstly, I am not allowed to do it, and secondly, it will not help you. But if I had to position myself on BNB, the interesting zone is the previous high. If I also draw a Fibonacci from the lowest point to the highest point, in confluence not far from the 0.618, which is a good zone to start repositioning on a large-cap crypto like BNB. From memory, here, when we corrected, if I draw my Fibonacci. You see, if I manage to draw it well, we have generally consolidated, consolidated around 0.18, between 0.8 and 0.786, in this reload zone. So here again, if we retrace on BNB, we would be at approximately -60%. -50% to -60%. This could be a good zone. Here, I estimate that we are a bit too high. Certainly, it's more interesting, but we can expect a rebound because we have indeed dropped aggressively on BNB. I would be surprised if we fell in a straight line like that. But yes, if we reach this zone, it could be a good zone to at least have a rebound. I find it hard to believe that with only a V-shape like this, we will manage to re-enter lower. So yes, we are clearly in a very good zone in my opinion here on BNB. After that, you still have good risk management, an invalidation, and so on and so forth. And I was asked the same thing about AVE. Now, well, the chart is a bit more bearish than BNB, of course. Now, it remains an altcoin that performed well in 2023, 2024, even 2025. If I take from the lowest point, not the lowest point, let's take the range where it's a bit accessible. I don't like to do this thing of taking the lowest possible point, the highest, and saying wow, we did a 4x. No. Okay, because not everyone has the lowest point. Not everyone has the highest point. Globally, we did about a 4x to 5x. Okay. Achievable. Okay, there are things that are unachievable. People who say, "I did x1000 x10000 on BTC since its creation," very unlikely. Okay. However, in a cycle, making performances, yes, it's possible. In any case, here, there was indeed something to be made on AVE. Now, we have retraced quite a bit. Okay. Globally, the zone I've always liked on AVE is this zone. Why? Because it's simply our range high. Here, this consolidation phase, we broke it, we pulled back, we re-broke it. Okay, now to see if we pull back again, but there's a major level of interest here. It's the 115 dollar level. It's simply the high of the range of this accumulation phase that lasted for several months, even for several years. We started it in 2022, we broke out upwards almost in 2025, well, 2024. So if we are looking for a reload zone on AVE, it's this zone. Now, be careful, again, we are waiting for a bottom to be put in. See, daily tunnel. Very good. We watch, we get back above the tunnel, we see reversal structures, we have settlement above the tunnel. Then there's something to be done, and there's something to potentially enter into a bullish trend. For the moment, we are below the moving averages, we still have good selling pressure. We are still in the reload zone of this movement, around the 0.786. But for the long term, I would like a lower retracement towards 115 dollars.
So, I've said everything from my side. I'll leave you with this. Don't hesitate to tell me what you are currently doing on BTC. Also, put the altcoins you want me to analyze in the comments. For those who haven't seen it, go watch the tutorial here on the Vegas tunnel, it can teach you quite a few things. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for a new video.