Transcription
So today, I just want to, you know, go over the weeks and, you know, basically the last 30 days of price action, right? And for the entirety of that time, right, we have been, you know, on point in regards to the dollar, euro, GBP, USD, and we've been doing fine, you know, within the index futures markets.
So, firstly, let's, you know, look back at the, you know, major time points, are, you know, the moments when liquidity was injected into the market, right? So that was Wednesday, right, where we had four high-impact news, news event folders, right? On Thursdays, we had the most, which is why we expected Thursday to give us the most volatility, right? On Friday, as you guys can see, we just had one, you know, USD high-impact.
New Zealand, you know, looking at the, well, the trend that has, you know, been underway for the past, I would say, the past 30 days, right? The reason why we had, you know, this downtrend like this, and whenever, you know, we had a bullish sequence or SMT, it didn't hold. Why was that? This was due to the fact that the higher timeframe sequence, right, the higher timeframe cycle was bearish for the foreign currencies, and I, by that, I mean Euro and GBP USD. If you guys can remember, right, we have sequence SMT between the pre- we had sequence of SMT between the previous quarter, last quarter, so Q4 of 2023. This is the high right here, you know, we're looking at the pound, right? This was the high. This was, okay, there was the high. That was a mistake, but it's close. Sorry. So this was the high right here, right, of December, the high of last year's fourth quarter, right? During the first quarter of the curr- current year, right, we had this candle trade above this high, right? Whereas the Euro, right, couldn't even get above these highs, much as this one, right? So this was sequential SMT, and, you know, not the highest order, but these types of, you know, sequential SMT, you know, within this quarter, it's, you usually just continues until we have a sequential SMT which is either greater than this or, you know, equal.
So right here, right, when we saw price barely trade about this side, pull back, right? They just expanded higher. Why was that? But due to the fact that we had this down here, right? And this right here is what you would like to actually see, right? We had price close above here, above the high and above the close, right? Also, you can see that this wick right here is, you know, you can see that it's greater than this wick right here, which is something to note, right? So we had a close above here, then, you know, we had the we greater. We're looking at this spe- specific timeframe, the the daily timeframe, right? For, you know, this specific cycle, price broke down. There was already sequence of SMT and a precision swing point right here, right? And we're just focusing on the Euro. No, we're just focusing on the, yeah, the Euro and the pound, right? Precision swing point here, and I'll turn the cur- on so you can see, right? On this candle, at this specific time, where if I move the cur- the cursor over here, you can see that these highs, right? This high specifically, this high right here for the pound, and I'll draw it all in time. I'll change the color to red, right? So this high right here, and I'll do we for the dollar, well, right? We had, you know, R about this high, but here, we, we, we didn't even do that here, right? And this is important. And why is this important? This is due to the fact that these highs were not symmetrical, right? Meaning that this was actually, you know, SMT, which called pressed to follow. So SMT occurred here, right? For the dollar, we didn't even get to, you know, these lows either, right? And we didn't have to. And why, why is that, right? We took out, you know, these highs, and then we had, you know, sequence SMT between yearly quarters, right? So price closed above both of these highs right here, right? Which caused, you know, what would I say, a type of sequential SMT, which, you know, allows price to be heavy, right? So it's not like it's double SE QUT or, you know, anything like that, right? That would just be stage one, stage two, as you guys already know. Well, here, right, we had sequence SMT occurring. Or we had, right, we had sequential SMT here, and below the sequential SMT, the low, which the high, which caused that we had, you know, regular SMT, right? So right here, this high, price sta- above this side was SMT. Price St- above this I was sequential SMT, right? Again, this high, price failed to go above it. And in regards to the dollar, we fil- to go below this low, right? So again, let me try to make it a little bit easier to understand or see, right? And this is important. So now you should be able to see it, you know, better. And I'll just. And, you know, these types of things are, you know, you know, it's better to see this on the higher, within the higher timeframe cycles, right? So like the quadral cycle, the, you know, the yearly cycle, monthly cycle, and so on. And and, you know, this is usually followed or, you know, by, you know, consolidation. So consolidation happens first, right? Which, you know, allows price to, you know, get ready to to actually expand.
So throughout all of this, right, the Euro, you know, falling, falling, falling here, you even when this high was formed right here, right? You can see my mouse, whatever this is, what it call it, right? This high right here, then you have this high right here, right? You can see the distance between here and here, right? Here, you can see that the distance is, you know, um, how I say, is much less than this distance, right? So throughout all of this, you know, propy price action, right? Price was literally getting ready to, you know, manipulate and distribute to the downside. This right is the, you know, the magnet to effect as well, which I, you know, which we were looking for. And this was, you know, this was actually so perfect, right? And we will see things like this happen, you know, over and over. You know, we'll see it whenever we start focusing on commodities, right? We'll see it within stocks, mostly, you will see it within the Forex market, you will see it within the index futures market, which you have already seen before. You will see it in, you know, the cryptocurrency market as well. But just look at, you know, the distance between these highs, right? So we had this high here, this high here, price traded above both of them. We had SMT first, and then after SMT, sequential SMT, right? A precision swing point occurred right here on this candle, right? On this candle, there was a precision swing point, right? Once, right, you have this happened, and then a candle close below the, you know, the precision swing point, that actually becomes, you know, a high probability order block. Like this is actually what you would call an order block. This is a master class in order blocks, right? And this is just one of the few, you know, that there, there is, right? So, and this, this one is, it's not rare, but, you know, within the, you know, higher timeframe cycles, you know, it is rare due to the fact that, you know, it takes more time for these types of things to happen to form.
So once this happened, there already, we already had SMT, right? And after the SMT, right, you wouldn't start right here, why? Cuz this wasn't sequential. So on this candle right here, you wouldn't want to be shorting, right? You would just be waiting for price to trade above here. Once there's a precision swing point, right? Price falls, right? You can, you know, you could, you could get in either here. We did get in here. I did, um, and a lot of you guys caught, you know, one of the down move, but I'm pretty sure that some of you got shaken out, and that's fine. And we talk about what happened here as well, right? So we had price straight above here, right? First is SMT, okay, it's SMT. What do you do now? Nothing. The only time you, you even pay attention to this is if there is, you know, sequ- SMT happens above, right? This SMT, if you are, you know, in bearish market conditions, right? And only if you're in a premium market will you, you know, do this. What is a premium market, right? You have, we have premium and we have discount, and this is very important, right? Premium and discount, right? It is very, what would I say, flexible with it, you know, in regards to they try it, right? Looking when you're comparing markets, right? So you will have one, and this is usually the best case scenario, right? There are times when you will have one that will be in extreme premium, right? Extreme premium. The other won't be so much, right? And below price action, right? The, like for the low, which, you know, caused the retracement to go back into premium, the extreme low, right? And, you know, you should looking back in the, you know, the first quarter, you're focusing within to find that low, which that low will be here for the Euro, right? So this would be the extreme low for the Euro, but this was the extreme low for the pound, right? So the extreme lows, right here, right? I use this dotted gray line, and I'll use a red one for the, the low that got, got that got ran out, or the low which caused the failure swing here. So here, right, we had price rally from here. Here, this is the failure swing, right? We had price rally from the failure s- you would, you know, grade your premium discount.
From this low to this high. And the only time, you know, that you would, you know, be focused on, you know, doing this is if there is sequential SMT, a swing, and a swing high was formed, which is, you already know what a swing high is, right? So due to the fact that we had, you know, if failure swing here, right? This is important. A failure swing here, or it could, you could use this one, but obviously, right? If you have a failure swing, and then above that, right? You have, you know, sequ- you have sequential SMT in, you know, one of the highest orders on the within the yearly cycle, right? Price will, you know, usually be gravitated back to these lows. As I said, you know, I could pull up multiple clips of, you know, me talking about this, you know, it's not like we were, you know, you already know, right? We've done this so many times already, you know, it's not hindsight. You know, literally, a lot of you guys, you know, sold here due to the fact that we were aiming for these lows, and you, you probably got, you know, messed up here, cuz you were like, oh, it's going to go up, but no, it didn't. And it wasn't. Why? This is because we, we had sequential SMT of one of the highest orders underway, right? This determines the order flow, if you will, right? And let's go back here, right? Just take a step back, right? We were talking about premium discount, but we're just going to go back here so you actually get this, right? We have, you know, highs stacked below the, you know, the utmost high, which caused the sequential SMT, you know, which caused price to decide that, okay, I want to turn around, which, you know, which caused this candle right here to actually become what, you know, you would call an order block card, if if you will, right? We had SMT below that. The only time you look at SMT like this is, you know, when you have sequential SMT occur after trading about this high. So here, when you have this candle close here, and then you had the Euro close here, the reason why I was bearish was because of this, right? You had everyone else, you know, saying that, oh, we're going to go for this high. No. Why? Liquidity was already induced, right? A premium and a discount market was created when this candle closed, right? So when this candle closed here, the market said, you know, okay, this is not, this is not premium market. That's what happened, right? It's not that this candle needed to go here. No. What happened was, there had to be a cracking correlation. The market, you know, need that its gears to be changed, which happened. The dollar, right? We, we traded, you know, close to here, but we didn't go there. This was SMT. And due to the fact that, you know, the only reason why this was SMT and this was considered sequential SMT, why? Is due to the fact that we had all, everything, you know, here happening within the British pound. And this is why whenever you see one of, one of the, you know, the members of the tribe that you're focusing on consolidating, you need to focus there, why? Because that asset, that will determine the future order flow of price. It will determine the correct premium and discount market, right? So you would have people right here, right? They would be like, from this high right here, now we're looking at the Euro, right? From this high right here, this low, that's premium discount. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. That's not, that's not it, right? Everything before here became irrelevant when, when the British pound closed above these two highs, right? Everything before here, like this right here, this high right here, this fair value gap right here, right? No, no, no. Gears shifted, right? Once, you know, this precision swing point closed here, then this became a premium market instantaneously. And it's all due to the fact that the British pound closed above these two highs, more specifically this high, which is a time-based high. This is sequential SMT. This is a higher order of sequential SMT due to the fact that we had, you know, SMT occurring before, which whenever, when this happened, I pressed here, you know, you people that, you know, have studied SMT would, you know, shy to short here, but they'll get taken over here because this is where the actual liquidity is, right here, right? We had, yes, we had bullish SMT here, but, right, remember the, and you need to remember this, right? Remember the magneto effect. If we have SMT here, more times than not, the first time, right? You have SMT, right? Every SMT, there's liquidity above the, those highs are below those lows, right? So we had bullish SMT here, right? This was, this was actually a good trade. You'd infer these highs, but once price got here, this, these lows became, you know, food for the algorithm, right? Once price closed above this high, then it's like, okay, it's time to shift gears. And this, this came from, you know, obviously what I've said before, for, you know, SMT to actually, you know, reverse, you need, you know, for the current cycle, you have to be cancelled, you know, the order flow to change. This is what you need. You need, you know, for example, this was yearly SE- we went up, then this was yearly again, right? If this was, we weekly wouldn't work, it would just, you know, continue going higher. But due to the fact that it's yearly, and if it was like, you know, AAL see SMT, then it would fall. But it has fall, and this is why it has, and this is why it has been falling, right? And this is why we've been aiming for these lows since price was here. We wanted these lows. And, you know, these types of, you know, these types of moves happen a few times per year. But this is what you really want to be using to get in, you know, in in the flow of price action, so you don't make mistakes of, you know, holding buys too long, which you can, but you just be going against the trend, cuz this is the trend. This is what caused the trend. This is the reason for the trend. This bullish SMT down here did not matter once this happened. This canceled immediately. A new premium in discount was created, just as how when the Great British pound had failure SP here, and there was, you know, bullish SMT, price, you know, went to, you know, this high, and this became the range of premium discount. This became the low. So whenever we had, you know, affili again here, and there was SMT again, obviously press expanded, cuz this was actual discount, just as how this is actual premium, right? This is it. We had price, you know, right here. We had price failed to trade, you know, below this low. And here, we had price trade about this high. I would not view this as, you know, sequential SMT, why? It's too shallow. This is nothing. This is not sequential SMT. This is too shallow. You need, you need price to, you know, act, close above it, like literally like this. And you need a, you know, a beefy candle. And it's better when you have the, the 50% of the body of the candle, you know, at least above the height here. You can see that this candle right here, this up close candle, the was below, then we had sequential SMT occur here, as well as price fell. So this, this caused price to, you know, fall, reverse, right? But there was sequential SMT here between these lows, right? The closure of these lows, which we will be looking at. This was not, but this was, you know, it was bullish. This did not fail. It did not fail. You could trade this. You could trade this and get over here. During the starting of this week, I did say that, like, look out for this high and this low. If price trades above this high, it's lower, right? If price trades below this high, this low, like, you know, going into the week, then what will happen? It would just, you know, it would gravitate to this high, then it will go lower again. Do you understand? And what makes it even, you know, more is that, you know, we had SMT below the sequence of SMT, right? You can, this was a literal, you know, a sign that the Euro is bearish, is weak, and the dollar is strong, due to the fact that this low didn't get taken out, this low didn't get taken out, but the pound managed to take up both of these highs. If you guys realize, I, I did not care about, you know, the cracking correlation here that much, cuz we already had our trend established, right? This candle right here was a precision swing point, right? This was not, this was not a precision swing point. This was this one? No. This down here was not greater than this, which is why we had price, you know, continue lower. Do you understand? So when looking at, you know, the three TRES or, you know, whichever one you're drawn to, you want to see price action like this, right? Like this, not barely, you know, trading above the highs. In no, no, no, no. Well, this could be a trade, of course, of course, that could be a trade. You could, you know, bought the Euro right here and, you know, got out here. This is actually, this would actually have been a good move, but the real move was the downside.
And now we look at the forward timeframe, right? Where we had sequential SMT occur this week. So there's a, you know, a number of correlations happening here. So here, at this, this, and make it easier, I'm going to turn the wicks off. Turn the wicks off here in the W software here, that way you can actually see the price action, right? So here you can see that, right? We close above this. Okay, what's the mly corners? Okay, so last week's, right? This was last week's low, or the lowest close of last week. During the current week, we closed above it, right? So we closed above it. We did, if you look at the wicks, we wick below it, but it's the closures that matter, as I always see, right? The closures matter more than the wicks. So, so we had SE- sequential SMT here, which, you know, hidden sequential SMT, if you will. And and all of this occurred, right? Right before, you know, we had CPI. And if you guys remember what I, you know, what I said, what I've been saying about CPI, how can, you know, the direction of CPI? Is it possible? Michael said that it's random. And I've heard him say, if any, if randomness exists in the market, is, you know, during CPI, that is a lie. Because this concept constantly shows you the direction, you know, we at where CPI would more than likely go in. And it's not like 50/50, it's way more than that, way more than that, right? So this is why, one of the main reasons why before CPI, right? You should let at least, you know, the day before CPI, you need to wait, right? And maybe 15 minutes before, you can plan to do something. Cuz again, let me turn the wicks on now, since you are, you already understand that we're focused on the closures, we're focused on the closures. Need some time to turn the works on. So here you can see, right here, we did quick below here, but this was just manipulation, right? This is to tick people off, right? But here you can see that there, this close was not lower than this one, do you understand? And then what happened? CPI release, gone, never to return, right? The day before CPI, right? If you know, we already, you already have, you know, this established sequential SMT, you would, you know, expect price to go in the direction of sequenc SM- SMT, right? In regards to the monthly cycle, do you understand? Also, we had seers SMT on the weekly side. If you guys can remember last time we spoke, we, you know, we had no bearish thoughts in mind, and then we still saw price expand, right? We had intermarket sequence SMT between the Forex market triads, the ones that we implement, and the IRT, the interest rate triads, right? I'm pretty sure you guys, you know, remember that. And then, you know, even after we came back, which we did a live stream yesterday, right? We still had price, you know, span, you know, to the downside, and we were not, you know, bullish at all. Don't really have to, you know, make anything up. This is it here, right? We just look, look at the charts for a while, and, you know, try to see something. Do you see anything that stands out? But and this is, you know, typical CPI week price action. If you bought here, right? In the NASDAQ, right? You got here, that's good. Also, remember what I said about the high and the lows of CPI, right? This specific day, Wednesday, we had CPI. The high and the low, they're important. Here, at this low right here, right? Right here, we had SMT, sequential SMT, price traded about, traded up, then what happened? We had the NASDAQ take out the high. Remember, when you trading, you enter where you have sequential SMT, you exit where you have sequential SMT, right? So there are two types of ways to enter, and there's two types of ways to exit. You'll either enter on, you know, within the range, internal liquidity in discount, or you will, you know, buy below a low, sell above a high, which, you know, de- the decision must come from this sequence SMT. That's the base of everything. So you can buy, you can buy failure swings if there's sequence empty like here, here, then expect price, you know, to go higher in that direction. Then we had sequen SMT here, right? At the at the end of the day, right? It was still, you know, we, it was still within the day. Doesn't even matter if it's like the last minute before the day closes. Once it's within the day, it's time specific. Remember, this would be theme as sequence or SMT, and this is why we had price, you know, fall back within the range and fall back below these lows, right? Now, more precision would be, you know, included as to, you know, why we have this setup right here and here for the Nasdaq. You can see the Dow slow, more, more than anything else, as we, you know, know we spoke about the Dow being weaker than, you know, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Here we had, right, a new week opening gap being, was the current week, we opening up, we have price reacting to it, right? So price traded into it, there was sequential SMT, right? While above this high, there was a new open gap as well, and there was SE con. So you will have times, right? And this is very high probability, um, at times, whenever this happens, you don't really need to be focusing on the, you know, the higher timeframe cycle. You just need, you know, if you're focusing on, for example, the, you know, within the weekly cycle, you see this happen, or the monthly second, you see this happen, or the daily second, you see this happen, which is literally, you know, and we're looking at the S&P 500 and Nasdaq right now, right? We have the S&P 500 for form minut a failure swing on a new week opening gap. So it traded in, while this was trading into a new week opening gap, we had the Nasdaq trading into any week opening gap, while closing above the high. Do you understand? So sequential SMT, sequential SMT, sequential SMT. N Nasdaq traded into a new week opening gap. S&P 500 traded into a new week opening gap as well. And then we had press fall. This, this is the reason plus the sequential SMT, right?
Currently, right? You shouldn't try be trying to trade right now or do anything. It's Friday. It's 3:08 p.m. You should like literally, if you, you want to read price action, wait until next week or just backtest. Like you shouldn't be looking for position swing points, SMT, trying to find something right now, digging into the, you know, reading the market, trying to trade right now. No, you shouldn't be doing that at all. You shouldn't be looking for anything now. It's Friday. The best days to trade are, you know, typically Monday, you know, Monday through to to Thursday. Those are the best days to trade. The best day, my opinion, be Thursdays, why? Because Thursdays, you know, are made for reversals, right? And reversal is what cause, you know, manipulation causes reversal, right? But reversals are, you know, peak manipulation, right? That's literally the peak manipulation for the weekly cycle, which more times than not occurs on, you know, Thursdays. So Thursdays are literally the best, right? When everyone is like already bummed out and they're, and it's either they're waiting for Friday or they already, they're done losing all their money for the entire week, right? But if you realize, you'll have sequen SMT, you know, more prominent, you know, more distinct on Thursdays due to the fact that it is, it was made for reversals after all, right? For Mondays, right? When you have M days expand, right? When there is no consolidation, right? And this can happen in regard of where, whe- if if there is, um, there's news event or not, right? Because sequential SMT, right? It causes liquidity to be induced, right? It would be lower probability if there is no news event, but that doesn't mean that price won't move. If there is sequence SMT or intermarket sequence SMT, you will likely have an expansion move, right? That's what usually happens. It's just that whenever that happens, like during Q1, right? Which makes it still low probability if there is expansions, is that it won't, you know, more times are not won't return to gaps. So you have PR just expand, expand, expand. It's not, not like coming back to fill the gaps. So are just going to be choppy Monday. And that's why Q1 is, you know, one of the least probable times to trade, as you guys, you know, realize. Well, you didn't realize cuz you were with me, so, you know, we did pretty good the last quarter, but this quarter, you know, it's going to be better due to the fact that it's not Q1, right?
So I hope you guys, you know, took something away from today. I don't know how long I've been speaking, how long have I been here? I have no idea. But yeah, hope you guys took something from whatever, you know, we were talking about. It's just that I wanted to come and, you know, try to show you guys the things that, you know, actually matter, right? And give you a few tips, a few things to study. Be like, why are you trading right now? You don't need to be trading right now. Like literally, you, you want the most probable time to trade. What's the, the most probable day to trade? A Thursday. With I new zealands, like that's really high probability due to the fact that, you know, Q4 was designed for, you know, reversals, right? Literally reversals. That's what it's designed for. When isn't it a reversal? When there is no news event, and then there, there's no sequential SMT, then you can expect consolidation or no continuation. So, yeah, hope that you guys, you know, found something useful from this, and we'll speak again Sunday. Have a wonderful week.