Lockdowns Are BACK and They Want Your Bitcoin

Yo, what is up my friends? Your boy Trader Mine back here with another episode of the order book. We got a great episode for you today. I apologize, uh, that the setup looks a little bit different today. Uh, but we're in the process of recording some educational videos for you guys. So, I've moved the whiteboard to a different room to record those videos for you. There's a little shiner I got here, and on my arm there is from moving the 200 lb whiteboard TV by myself. Mistakes were made. But let's get into it. It's going to be a great episode, guys.

As always, I would love for you to, um, help me continue to build this show. We're building in the bear. It's a bear market right now. We're still out here putting out the content basically every single day. So, if you want to support your boy, uh, the easiest way to do that is subscribe to my [ __ ]. Go over to the Orderbook page, give that a follow on Twitter. We're over 2k followers now, which is awesome. And then go follow the Orderbook Show on Instagram as well, where we're posting all sorts of great clips and stuff, uh, from the various videos. But without further ado, let's get into the charts, guys.

So, I posted something pretty interesting here, um, on Twitter, uh, about the charts and kind of how we're seeing this repeating pattern, right? We're seeing this repeating pattern. Uh, and I drew this out a while ago, uh, where I said, "Hey, we're looking a lot like this prior consolidation here, right? Where we trade above the range high, fade back within, and then we're cooked, right? Then we're absolutely cooked." So, um, obviously, we don't want that to happen again here, right? We don't want to see this same thing play out. One, that means price is probably going to make new lows. Two, a lot of the people bulling non-stop, telling you this time's different, they're going to be wrong yet again. So, we've been tracking this for a while now, and I've given you guys ample opportunities and examples and just showing you exactly how to trade this right up to last night, saying this is exactly where the bears should smack it down if they're gonna. And, um, that was when we were trading right here at this what could be a lower high now on the Bitcoin chart here. So, right as we were trading here, said this is where they're going to want to smack it down.

So, quick Trader Mine lesson. Why is this the most optimal area for them to to nuke it, to smack it down? Well, if we just delete this for a sec. Okay, we have our order block, right? Or our breaker in this instance from here to here. Okay, this move here above this high is a weekly SFP. So, if I go out to the weekly chart, that is a swing failure pattern. We trade above the level, we close below it, and then that gives you that swing failure pattern, right? So, we're marking out that swing failure pattern on the H12 here. That's what this move is. We're looking for the the breaker that generated the move above. And then the last piece of the puzzle, of course, is waiting for that structure break, which we very clearly get here. And then we move down. The retest is where you look to short. And we even have, um, an H12 sweep right in there. Right in there. It's pretty hard to see because it's so little, but it's right there within this area. We have an H12 sweep. This is carbon copy to what we have here. Okay, what we have up here is the exact same price action. We have a breaker block down here. Okay, and I, and I again, I mapped this out, guys, for you in advance. Okay, but I'm showing you again here, right? So, we have the, we have the breaker block here, right? We have the structure shift. This move is your weekly SFP. Go out to the weekly chart. Right? There's your weekly swing high. We traded above it, closed below. It's the exact same price action. And so I mapped this out a while ago, um, on Twitter here. This is just kind of the the continue the the the follow along of this. But we talked about this a bit ago and, and what we said, basically, is I don't want to see this thing fall back in the range, right? This is not what we want to see. I want to see something like this, right? Like, if it's going to go, it needs to kind of go from the mid-range here. But this is when I first posted this on March 19th. I said, "It's still a little too early to tell, but it looks a lot like the last range. We need the bulls to step in. Otherwise, we have a weekly sweep, a weekly sweep." Uh, and this is just going to pattern repeat. And so far, that's exactly what it's looking like. It's looking like this is a repeat of this pattern.

So, what do the bulls need to do to save this thing, right? Because I don't want to be a gay bear. I don't think you want to be a gay bear either. I think we all want to be, um, we, we all want to be bullish, right? We all want to be bullish. Everyone wants the number to go up. Nobody wants the number to go down. Nobody wants to be a gay bear. Okay. So, how do we get that? Well, the bulls need to reclaim the mid, the range high here. It's that simple. I've talked about this on a dozen different charts. The S&P 500 short that we took. If you look at Nvidia, right? We've talked about this setup on Nvidia where I was like, "Hey, everyone and their mother on Twitter was screaming, 'Oh, it's so easy. Just long earnings on Nvidia.'" They got completely trapped. I said, "You have an invalidation there. And if we lose these lows here, this thing is [ __ ] gonzo for sure." Right? The exact same setup again on the Dow Jones. Same setup. We talked about this on one of the first streams that we did for the Orderbook Show. This retest is a sell. Stop there. Bears have all the ammunition for this short. It nuked down. And then on the S&P 500, same thing. This $7,000 level, they're unable to reclaim. So, when we had this sweep, you're shorting. Stop above the high, and we're bearish. We took this trade together. Okay? And Bitcoin, it's the same thing. These are the easiest setups for you on whatever side you're on. It doesn't have to be just a bearish setup, but anytime you have a very clear level, okay, very clear level. And then you get one of these, you're a bear until we get either back above here or until we re, we stop out that deviation. This is like the easiest setup in all of trading, and it's what most of my strategy is based on. Okay? And this is exactly what we have here. A clear level of resistance. A clear level of resistance. If we trade above, back below, you have a clear inval as a bear. So, the the the the ball is in the bull's court 100%. 100% the ball is in the court of the bulls here. If they're able to reclaim the range high, then things look a little different. Things look a little bit better. But until then, the bears have had the clean invalidation, the easy setup. Price is rejecting exactly where you'd expect it to reject. So, unless they're able to reclaim 715, 71700, I would say for good measure, 72,000, I'm going to assume we're going lower. If we're able to get back above 72,000, then I think it starts look interesting again for the bulls. Ultimately, as you guys know, my expectation is even if we get above 72, I think it's like this, right? Like, I think we end up just trading into the 80s maybe, or maybe even just 280. Maybe this is too aggressive. Maybe it's just to this. Regardless, um, I, I think we trade up to like 80 something and then we nuke. Anyways, I just want to see a little bit more of a rally before the next leg down. But that's what I wanted here as well. I wanted to see us rally to 110. As you guys remember, I was drawing lines up to here and then the lower high. I was super consistent about that, but I said if we lose this trend line, it's cooked. Well, guess what, guys? Like, this is, um, this is entering cooked territory here. I want it to go higher. I would like to short from higher, right? I would love to short from higher, but if this loses this trend line here, right? Like, just like this, it's done. So, the bulls really, really need to step in here and reclaim 72,000, uh, if they want to make this chart look not like [ __ ]. If we lose this trend line, which is confluent with losing the mid-range, this is going to be pretty much a carbon copy of this prior range, and we're going to see sub 60K. So, I would love for this, okay? But I'm totally prepared for this to just [ __ ] eat [ __ ] from right here. Okay. Okay. And then maybe we reclaim the range low, and that's the long that you take. But right now, I am not in an active trade on Bitcoin. If I was, and I talked about this in my last video, I would be short from here. That's what we talked about in the video I uploaded on Monday. That would be the trade that I'm in. But I'm not in a trade right now. So, the bulls got some work to do. They need to reclaim this range high. And until then, I think the bears are the, the bears are in control.

Coupled with all of this is this continuing escalation in the Middle East, where there's talks of boots on the ground now. Um, oil prices are getting crazy. We're going to get into some of this when we talk about some of the news. Um, but it does not seem like things are calming down, uh, in the Middle East, and that's not a great look for the bulls, right? Like, if we have some sort of escalation tomorrow on the weekend when the markets are closed, um, you know, that's going to look bad, um, for crypto, most likely. But I'm giving the bulls a chance, just like I did here. I'm giving them a chance to push this thing higher. I think from a cycle perspective, timing wise, we're due for a bounce. I really do think we're due for a bit more of a rally than this. So, I would hate if this wedge just plays out like the prior one. And as you guys know, on the S&P 500, I've been waiting for, uh, some relief. I'm still in the short, but I would like to see us this be a higher low here, right? And then I would like to see something like this on S&P. And if we can get this next week, um, I think that will bode well for Bitcoin having something like this occur. And then I assume into April, going into May, uh, the downside continues. I'm pretty confident if we get some sort of relief rally here on the S&P, it rejects. Now, the only thing that would change my mindset on this is if we were to get some sort of breakout here and then there's resolution in the Middle East, then that could absolutely send us to new highs. But for now, this is my base case for both Bitcoin and the S&P. But Bitcoin bulls got to step in. [ __ ] now. And the S&P bulls need to break this downtrend that we're in. We're in this super aggressive downtrend here. It, it's similar to what we had, um, here, right, for Bitcoin. If you guys remember, um, when I was using this trend line here to, to, to predict this rally, right? We were using this downtrending structure and I said, "Hey, the, the Bitcoin bulls need to get above kind of this downtrend here for a pop," and they got a little one, but I mean, it didn't go very far. Well, the S&P is, is, is creating that same structure here. It needs to break this downtrending structure to have a chance for, um, you know, a bit of a relief pop. But that's what we're watching right now on Bitcoin, guys. It's looking very similar to, um, this prior consolidation. I've given you guys clear levels. I've given you the setup. If you want to trade this, by all means, go for it.

Uh, I think there's kind of two camps that I'm seeing on Crypto Twitter right now. Um, I see camp number one, which is the camp that I'm kind of firmly in. I'm, I'm holding cash. I think things get worse this year before they get better. Um, I don't think that the bottom is in on Bitcoin or equities. Even if I'm short-term hoping for a bounce, uh, I do not think that the bottom is in. Uh, and I think we'll be able to buy at cheaper prices later in the year. Um, that's the, and so right now with this headline-driven macro uncertainty environment that we're in, uh, I'm not trading super aggressively. I don't need to, right? Like, I, I did well enough in the bull run, and I've, I'm in a position now, just in my career and in my life, where I don't need to be trading every move. Um, there's other people who are telling you that this is the time to lock in, and there's never been a more important time to be locked into the markets right now. And they're telling you this while simultaneously Bitcoin has done [ __ ] all for a month, right? More than a month. Like, there's people telling you like, don't get away from your screen. Now's the time to lock in. Don't go touch grass. Bitcoin has not done anything since the start of February. We've been in a range since the start of February, and the S&P's actually been in a downtrend. Um, so unless you're specifically been trading, you know, the short side on gold, um, or the long side on oil, not a lot of [ __ ] is moving that crazy, you know what I mean? And even oil has kind of been going sideways for a couple of weeks now, right? Like, after this big initial breakout here, it's kind of just chopping around here. So, I, I personally don't think these are like the best trading conditions by any means. And I don't think there's any harm in chilling out, waiting for cleaner conditions to arise, or at least for the effect of Trump's tweets and just the headlines that are coming out seemingly every minute online to just have a little bit more of a dull effect on the market in general. Like, right now, we're still at a point where Trump says the wars won, the markets go up, and then someone in Iran says, "We've got, we're ready for the ground invasion. This [ __ ]'s just getting started," and then the market goes down. Um, I don't think you need to be forcing yourself to trade this environment. Personally, maybe it's different for you.

That being said, long-term, high time frame, I absolutely think this year is a year in which you want to pay attention because if my macro thesis is correct, we are going to see another leg lower in equities and in Bitcoin and in risk in general. And I'm very interested in buying the dip in that next leg down because I do think later this year, September, October, November, December of this year, we're going to form the bottom for both the S&P and Bitcoin high time frame for the next cycle. I think Bitcoin around 60K down to 50, 40K is good value long-term. So, don't confuse those two things. I can believe in the space long-term, and I do think we're getting towards and have been near discount prices for Bitcoin. I don't think we're there yet for the S&P, but for Bitcoin, absolutely. I mean, we're 50% off the high. What's the worst that it gets? Maybe 70, 80%. Means it can still go lower, but 50% discount on Bitcoin historically has always been a good buy. So, in that vein, yeah, pay attention. I think we're, you know, at an area where we're in value, approaching value for Bitcoin, but short-term, this price action has been very slow. It's been headline driven, and we haven't really done much. So, I don't know what some of these people are trading that maybe I'm not paying attention to where they're like, "Oh my god, every day there's so many amazing opportunities." Like, Bitcoin has not done anything since the start of February. We bottomed at 60K and we're now in a, you know, $10,000 range. That looks a lot like this last one. If anything, you should be getting ready for this to eat [ __ ] again, unless the bulls show up. So, that's my two cents, right? Like, the big bad thing that breaks the market hasn't even happened yet. Like, that's coming, right? We're in the early part of the bare market still, where it's just this price decline. Volatility is going to start to dry up. Um, but we're going to get some action here soon on Bitcoin, I reckon. Uh, and unfortunately, I think it ends up with lower prices. It's just a question of, do we get a bit of a pop first, or is this it and this thing's ready to die now. So, um, it's, it's totally up to you guys if you guys want to be, you know, forcing yourself into trades in market conditions like this. I'm going to be here. I'll be sharing my levels. If I see any obvious trades, I always let you guys know. Um, but I'm not trying to force myself into a position ever. I want the market to come to me. I want to take trades that I like. And, you know, the short here has been pretty much telegraphed for a few weeks now. I've been telling you this is the short. I showed you that post seven days, right? Seven days ago on the 19th of March, said this is the short. So, if you're in it, you're in it. You know, you've got the clear invalidation. If you're a bull, you better hope to God they hold on to this line.

Let's take a look over at ETH. How'd that sneak up there? Did you see that? I went to click on Ethereum, and USDC Euro just jumped up there. Like, look at me. Um, so ETH, this is from a few streams ago, right? We talked about this big 3-day kind of sweep. Let's see if we can get a pullback and then maybe into the mid-range, or maybe up into this kind of bearish order block here, right? From the high to the low. Maybe we can get a decent bearish retest. But I want you to look at this chart. Okay? I wish this thing had a freaking back button. I want you to look at this chart, right? I'm, I'm asking politely. You know the meme, the guy with the bowl, you know, "Please, sir, may I have some more?" And he's like, "More? No." You know that [ __ ] thing? Okay. I'm, I'm sitting here begging. Please let us get a nice bearish retest so we can short. You know what I mean? Because if I'm going to short this thing, I want to short at an area where I believe prices are at a premium, right? Remember our conversation around premium and discount. I want to short above the 50% of the range at least, because that way I'm close to my invalidation, which is above here. That's what I want. Well, guess what? This last down leg, we only pulled back to here, and then we, we ate [ __ ]. So, now I'm saying, okay, here's our next price leg. I would like to short because I don't think the bottom's in yet. I want to short up here ideally, right? But we might not even get there. Like, we might roll from right here. So, that's all that that drawing was showing is it's like, hey, can we get a little bit of a relief bounce on ETH? Can we get a little bit of a pop? Um, and it just doesn't seem like it wants to. You know, we're, we're, we have our range here. I'm like, we got to hold this range breakout, right? Everything broke out of the range. I, I, it's like I [ __ ] telegraphed this [ __ ]. I'm like, everyone on Twitter is telling you not to fade the range breakout. More importantly, in my opinion, is let's see if the range breakout even [ __ ] holds, because the last one didn't. And everyone told you the same thing, and they all got [ __ ] smoked. Well, we had the same thing here, right? Where it's like, okay, we broke out of the range. Can we hold a retest? And it's looking like maybe, but like, I don't know. It's looking kind of sketchy. Same chart as Bitcoin. The bulls need to [ __ ] hold down the fort pretty quick here. Where's the, uh, zero line? Oh, right. Like, they need to hold this retest here because, same as Bitcoin, if this thing just rolls over here, I don't know. I don't see how it's any different than this range, which is they, you know, the, like, it's the same thing over and over and over again here, right? Same [ __ ]. So, the bulls really have their work cut out. They really need to step in. I think a lot of people, a lot of people got trapped in this pump, just like they did on Bitcoin here. A lot of people got trapped, including me, by the way. Right. I, I was holding here. I was bullish here. I got trapped here because I wanted higher. And I think a lot of people are doing the exact same thing now. We want that ideal retest. Everyone wants a back test of here, including me. You often times don't get the retest or the back test that you want, right? If it was as easy as being like, well, this is exactly what should happen and it works out that way every time, everyone would be rich. Okay. So, I think a lot of people are expecting higher. Um, I still think there's an argument to be made that we can get a another pop here. But this is the exact same dialogue I was having with myself here. Oh, just a little higher up to 110. And that's when I'll short, and then the chart told me it's like, this thing's not going any higher. So, we got to be aware of that here. If this thing breaks down, uh, high, high odds were [ __ ] cooked. ETH looks the exact same.

All right, guys. So, I know it's not what you want to hear, but I, I'm, I'm telling you, the bulls have a shot. Uh, but they need to wake the [ __ ] up like right now and step in, right? Maybe when the traditional markets close over the weekend here, um, you know, Bitcoin can get some breathing room. Maybe the S&P can stop being a little [ __ ] and get a little bit of a relief bounce, and that can propel us a little bit higher on Bitcoin. Um, you know, the difference in this scenario and this one is back here, right? Remember, this is November to January. Okay, November to January here, the S&P went up, right? The S&P went up in that same time frame, like almost 10%. And then Bitcoin managed to go up, I think, what is this, like a 16% bounce, 20%. So, we need the S&P to bounce as well. We need that additional boost. Um, but, you know, show me reclaim the levels. Hold, hold, hold the level of support because, for now, it's doing exactly what it, uh, the bears want it to do. Okay.

So, that's a lot of talking without checking the chat. So, let's take a quick look at the chat here. We'll talk about the lockdown stuff. Um, we'll talk about the lockdown stuff, uh, in the, in the news section here. Do I think that the lack of bounces has anything to do with 1010? And then Slopper says, "No, it has to do with 911. Arrest this man, check his computer. I want to see his search history. This guy's looking up how to make a bomb. I guarantee it." Um, no, I don't think that that's the case at all. Um, everyone wants the ideal retest, right? Like, this is not something new in markets, right? Like, on, in the last bare market, we wanted the bounce up to here, right? Like, you want, you want to, you want to sell this. It never happens, right? Like, you're not always just going to get that bounce. Same thing here. Like, where's the ideal retest on this leg down? Probably this. And this is all we get, right? Same thing here. We want to sell this, and then we get this. Okay. And then it just legs lower. Um, so you're not always going to get that ideal retest. I don't think it has anything to do with 1010. Um, I just think that there's more sellers than buyers seemingly right now. Uh, and we need more buyers. I think the problem that you guys are going to be having right now is on Twitter. There's a lot of inexperienced people who have garnered an audience over this last bull run, who have not traded a bear market before, and have confused their skill or their idea of having skill with the fact that they were just bullish during a bull run. And just because you made money last cycle being a bull during the bull run does not mean you know how to trade. Okay? And I'm not trying to [ __ ] on anyone. I did the same thing when I first learned. I made money when things were going up, and then I just assumed I knew what I was doing, and then I lost all of my money on the way back down. Okay? So, I'm not speaking negatively about people. I'm just saying this is the reality of crypto. Is a lot of these people who gain an audience specifically being a bull during the bull run, people look at them and say, "Well, this guy was crushing it in the bull. He's got all these followers." And then during the bear, they're just [ __ ] they look [ __ ] because it's like, "Oh, I thought this person knew what they doing." It's like, no, they just only knew how to long. They kind of got lucky. They were a bull in a bull market. And I think a lot of people lack the experience of trading in multiple bears. Uh, and I'm not saying I'm perfect. I'm not saying I get everything right. I get [ __ ] wrong all the time. I'm the first to admit that. But I don't see what some other people are seeing. Maybe. And maybe that's on me. I just, I look at the market and I'm just like, this is kind of just like pretty orderly downtrend. I don't know how you can look at this and be like, "Oh, this is unprecedented." It's like this, like we are [ __ ] we look exactly like this. As it stands right now, we're doing the exact same [ __ ] thing we did last time. Right up to having the Ukraine Russia conflict kick off to, you know, having Israel, Israel, I mean, the USA, one in the same, aren't they? Don't shoot me, big Yahoo, please. Um, but, you know what I mean? Like, it looks the same, it acts the same. If it [ __ ] quacks like a duck, it looks like a duck, it swims like a duck, it might be a [ __ ] duck. You know what I mean? So, um, anyways, I don't know where I was going with that, but I, I think a lot of people, again, they're trying to ascribe narrative and all, "Oh, because of this, because of this." Just trade the chart. All the bad decisions I make in trading have been when I listen to people online, let other people's bias infect my brain rather than just looking at the chart objectively because this is the only thing that we know for certain is that this is the chart. Um, and even right now, it's even harder because we clearly have some insider trading going on within the White House. Like, there's trades being taken in the market right before Trump says something that is going to move the oil market or move the stock market. So, like, you're, you're trading, you got a lot going against you right now trying to trade this market. And that's why I've been more of the mindset like, hey, let's look for A+ opportunities and let's not try and force [ __ ] that isn't there. Uh, and in my opinion, the money is going to be made buying this [ __ ] rather than trying to, you know, snipe every little move on the way here. What's funniest to me, really, is there's people who had zero ability or aptitude to trade this, like, just the biggest uptrend of all time. And the, the same people were calling this like a terrible bull run, even though Bitcoin just went in an orderly uptrend for like two straight years, two and a half years. Um, and now they think that they could trade the downtrend with a war potential World War II breaking out. It just, like, again, just my opinion, man. I'm just some random [ __ ] on the internet. Um, you don't have to listen to me. Uh, I could be totally wrong. Uh, and that's okay. You know, I'm just here trying to catch a couple of moves, make a couple of bucks, share a little bit of wisdom, and, uh, you know, whatever happens happens. R Divine says, "I have arrived. Heard the R word within five seconds. Don't know if I'm allowed to type that." On my channel, you can absolutely say [ __ ]. I was born in 1977. Okay, so growing up, [ __ ] was not a bad word for me. I understand it has a different connotation now. I never mean it negatively about someone who actually has mental disabilities or anything like that. I'm saying the word [ __ ] means like I'm [ __ ]. You know what I mean? You're [ __ ]. We're all [ __ ]. Um, but yeah, no, I, I, I say the R word a lot, so if that offends you, I'm sorry. Good market for scalping. Yeah, like, I mean, if you're trading like really low time frame stuff, you know, maybe this is a scalper's market. Pretty clean, right? Pretty orderly. Like, you know what I'm saying? Like, take the high, break down, retest, target the low. There's definitely some trades to be had here. I'm not, I don't want to be misconstrued here saying that you shouldn't be paying attention at all and taking zero trades. For [ __ ] sakes, I'm making videos almost every day. I need you guys to stay locked in. I need you guys to click the ref links below this video. Poly Market, click it. Kraken and NATO, click it. I need that. Um, I'm just saying like, I wouldn't like this, this will return one day. So, I don't want you to be discouraged if you're like, "I can't trade this. We're in a downtrend. I hate it. How's everyone making money?" Most people right now aren't making any money. Remember, most people barely make money during this. Most people get smoked in a bull run. Like, most people suck. Most people lose money trading. But it's a lot easier to make money in a bull run than it is in conditions like we have right now. So, don't try and delude yourself or get deluded by people online making it seem like, you know, you have to be trading this. You don't. There will be easier conditions. They will return. There will be lower prices. There will be a bull run again, in my opinion, of course. Um, so, you know, watch the streams, come hang out, click all my ref links, but don't feel like you need to be, you know, a slave to the tape here. Does that make sense? This does look like the Atlanta del Taco pattern. One of my first tweets that ever went viral. Shorting till September and looking for a three-year long from October. That's kind of my high time frame thesis, to be honest with you. So, uh, I, I, I agree with you. I do. Is this Bitcoin weekly H12 sweep not a textbook setup for you? It absolutely is. It 100% is, and I, I laid it out, right? I laid it out. Um, yeah, the yearly open is there on ETH. I agree. Um, right. Like, who wouldn't want to short ETH at 30,000 based on what a [ __ ] piece of [ __ ] this is. Just do we, do we get there? I have no idea. Genuinely, I, I have no idea if we have that much juice in the tank. We're gonna talk about the lockdowns in a minute, bro. Don't worry.

All right, guys. Um, so let's do, uh, a couple more charts here, and then we can get into some of the other stuff that I want to talk about today because I got a lot, I got a lot to say. Your boy's got your boy's a king, the king of the yaps. King of the yappers. Okay, so let's look at Solana here real quick. Soul, ETH, and Bitcoin have been trading relatively lockstep. Um, as you can see on Soul here, like the weaker of of them, we, we got the range breakout and just right so far, not holding. Very similar kind of trend line. I, I, you know, if you want to fit this thing to make it look less gay, you can. But either way, this is similar to Bitcoin, uh, similar to ETH. It kind of has to [ __ ] hold here. Otherwise, it's like, what are we doing? Like, what are we doing if this thing just breaks back within the range here so easily? Um, and that's kind of what it looks like, right? It kind of looks like it's just breaking back within the range. It's failing to hold the breakout. So, same story goes for, uh, Solana. So, Soul, I would like to see it above $90. Okay. Um, ETH, I would like to see it get above 2150. I'd like to see it get above 2150. Bitcoin, we'd like to see it get above 71500, or even 72K would be better. Okay. So, that would be the, the, the three, the big three, and the main levels that I'm looking at. Uh, the S&P 500, quite simply, needs to make a higher high here on the daily chart or the 12-hour chart. So, right now, that higher high is above 6637. Okay, so every time it comes up to this trend line, it's rejected. I need to see a higher high above 6637. Then I think we could trade back up towards 6,800. Then it would look decent again, uh, for the next leg down. Uh, because ultimately, I do think that this trade is going to end up working out. I, I posted in the Haven earlier. I took this trade with everyone for you guys. This has been in Telegram, Twitter. I took this trade everywhere. Stop loss, entry have been public the entire time. Nobody I saw on the feed shorted the stock market at the top. Everyone was like, "It's just going to keep ranging. Nothing ever happens." And I was like, "This time something's gonna happen." And I was right. Um, I'm still in this trade. I'm willing to ride this thing to stop out, but I think we shorted pretty damn close to the top here. And if I end up being right, maybe World War III is here and it's thermonuclear war, and it's the heat death of the entire planet. But we're going to die in profit. So, you know, like, if I'm right and this spells the end of the world for the time being, at least we'll be up, you know, five R on our our short trade. And what really matters at the end of the day, when we're reduced to rubble and we're back to the barter system of trading shiny rocks and [ __ ] pieces of infur pelts as our form of commerce, when I can tell people that, you know, I'm up six or seven R on my S&P 500 short, even though banks don't exist anymore because, you know, we were flattened. Um, you know, priorities, guys. I, I'll like, I'll be able to trade my clout for food. I assume people go, "Wait a minute. Are you guys, are you the dude who shorted the top of the end of the world?" I'm like, "Yeah, right." And then when we rebuild society, people will elevate me, um, as some sort of lord or emperor or or duke or something of status, obviously, because like, that's the guy that called it. That's the clout goblin who I told you, showed the end of the world. You know, I don't know where I come up with this [ __ ] guys. I'm sorry. The [ __ ] am I even talking about? Anyways, um, what else should we look at here? Uh, let's keep going down the list here. So, the Dow Jones, this is, this is the same chart, right? We talked about the short that played out beautifully. This is now the same thing, right? Like this thing's cooked, and, uh, you have this aggressive downtrend here, right? This is aggressive downtrend. If this thing's able to make a higher high, right? If this can finally break out of this, I think we can get some sort of pop, but then ultimately I expect that pop to be a lower high. Uh, the dollar is something. Look at all this stuff here. I drew on the dollar. Um, I think a lot of people are bearish on the US dollar, um, for many reasons. They watched one Professor Jiang video and they think it's over. Um, I think that, uh, this is a big area for the dollar, and I, I've talked about this in a few of these streams now, right? But we have this multi-year range that we're, we're tapping on the bottom of. This is a yearly order block here, right? So, this is your yearly OB, and this is your last year's low, right? Last year's low. So, we took out that last year's low, reclaimed it into a yearly order block. If this thing is, if that's a pretty high, um, you know, odds like low right there, um, that if we're able to reclaim this now, I think we can trade all the way up to here, um, which would be in line with, um, further sell off on risk. Right now, if we're going to get some sort of larger bounce across risk assets, the S&P, Bitcoin, etc., we're going to see gold have another leg up. Maybe this has one more move down, but ultimately I'm of the belief that we are in the process of putting in a high time frame low on the dollar, and we will see, uh, a large move up on the dollar later this year. Just a matter of, is this the low or does it have one more ditch down? I don't know yet. Okay.

So, we've been tracking that. We've been cooking. Um, I've been talking about rate cuts for a while. I keep betting on rate cuts on Poly Market. I want to see this thing [ __ ] roll over, dip below the trend line. I was like, "Finally, we're going to get rate cuts," and I'm going to win my bet. And this thing is just rocketed back up. So, no rate cuts yet. Um, the rate cuts are driven largely by the bond market. Uh, I know stocks and all this stuff matter as well, but when we see rate cuts is when this thing is peeling off to the downside. So, um, nothing yet, unfortunately. I need this to make a lower high and then sell off, and then we'll look to see those rate cuts come through. Um, hype Arthur, right? Arthur, Arthur tweeted out something. Let me just, let me just, sorry, guys. Let me, markets are smoking a [ __ ] ton of opium right now. Of course, I want the killing to stop, but I'm not buying risk here. This same guy just told you that Hyperlid's going to 150 in like the next month, right? How I, so this is my, again, this is not a problem with Arthur because I don't know what he's actually [ __ ] doing. And he's not going to tell you what he's doing till he's already done it. Like, he might write his, let's assume that Bitcoin does this, you know, like this, and it has another leg lower. Arthur's going to write his next article being like, "I knew risk wasn't bullish. The war is escalating. We exited our hype bag at 40," and like, you're gonna be like, "Wait, what the [ __ ]? What happened to 150?" And so that's the problem with following people blindly, right? You don't actually know what they're doing. Arthur failed his hype long here, okay, for many, many millions of dollars. And it already has captured a 50 plus% move. So, there's no guarantee that he's holding that entire bag. You have no idea, and you're not going to know until it's too late. Um, so, to me, a bit hypocritical to be like, "The markets are on opium. I don't want to buy risk here," but at the same time be like, "Hey, here's a [ __ ] 5,000-word essay on why you should buy Hyperlid," as if that's not a risk asset. Um, but anyways, I talked about this level and I said, "Don't chase this Arthur pump." I think a lot of people were going to try and chase this. I said, "Wait for some sort of pullback." Whether that's for a retest of this, which is what we're seeing right now, or potentially even a deeper pullback. I still think that this is one of the better looking charts. I still like Hyperlid long-term, but you have to be realistic. If Bitcoin and risk hasn't bottomed yet, why would Hyperlid be, um, impervious or immune to that further downside, right? So, uh, hype. We're retesting this area right now, which I think is a pretty critical area, a pretty key area. And I think ultimately, if this area fails, the next zone that I'd be looking for higher low is around here. So, uh, if this is going to continue to go up, again, it will largely depend on Bitcoin. Uh, but it's probably from like one of these two areas for that next leg. You think gold is done for the next couple of decades? Let's look. Um, I, I think there's a world where gold has one more leg in it. I do wish I took this short. So, if you guys remember, we had talked about this on many, many of the streams by now. Um, I know we talked about this on many, many streams ago was, um, this saying, "Hey, if gold can get above this, it looks good." But this ended up being the perfect short, right? It's just a breaker, right? Here's your move for the up. We broke down below. Like, that was a great short opportunity. Um, anyways, uh, so I, I think there's a world where gold can continue to go up. I drew this level out and I kind of said, "Hey, it's butt-clench time here for Peter Schiff." Uh, I would like to see this weekly candle close as a sweep. So, how it's closing right now. I think that would look good, right? Into this 3-day demand. And if we're able to close as a sweep, then all of a sudden you have this level here, right? Right. So, let's assume that the weekly candle closed right now instead of tomorrow. If it closes like this, you're long for gold for the next leg higher, right? Trend line break, stop below here, entry here, target new all-time high. Like, that's the, that's the setup. It's not the best risk-reward, right? Back to the high, but it's not bad. It's 1.5, 1.6, just back to the high. But ultimately, I think, you know, if, if it sets up like this, we could totally see gold move to like 6,000. So, that would be the trade on gold, assuming the weekly closes sweep and then we get this move up. That would be the setup there. Um, okay, guys. Um, what else is there? Look at oil like not doing much. I said, "Hey, this is lower high territory for oil. Everyone's getting horny on oil. It's going higher." And I'm like, "This is exactly where the lower high is going to form if it's going to." Had a bit of a selloff. Now it's bouncing again. And if you kind of like, if you look at it without this, right? Like, I think the bull case for oil is, is this something like this. Like, this is your bullish right here, where this is a deviation and this is your move up. And then you're also basically expecting this, um, this, uh, Middle East situation to continue to escalate, um, in the wrong direction. Right. So, you're playing some sort of range here, and, uh, you're saying, "Hey, things are going to continue to get worse." Strait of Hormuz is not going to open. We're going to get into this in a minute, but a lot of places are talking about, hey, we're running out of energy. Might have to have some sort of COVID style lockdowns, but now it's because there's no energy. So, you got to stay at home to not to stop the spread, but to, um, due to the fact that there's no gas and energy is too expensive. So, that would be the bad for

The the globe take is that this is oil trying to put in a low here. Something like this. Uh, but if the resol, if there's resolution in what's going on overseas here, right? If there's some sort of positive peace talks, a ceasefire, this would be where the lower high was going to form like we mentioned. And that's looking accurate for now.

So again, I'm too [ __ ] I'm smart enough to know that I'm too [ __ ] to try and trade this market right now. I know a lot of people who are balls deep long on oil. I know a lot of people who think that that's got to be surely the top for oil because there's no way the US lets this escalate anymore. Um, I don't [ __ ] know. And I'm not going to try and pretend to know. I'm not going to try and pretend like I'm an expert and uh lead you guys to slaughter. I'm more than happy to give you my opinion on the levels, what I think looks interesting, but I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I have any [ __ ] clue what I'm talking about when it comes to trading oil, an asset I almost never trade, specifically during a time as uncertain as right now. And I think that's one of the problems with social media is you got to be very careful because um a lot of people purport themselves to be a lot more experienced and expert and skilled than they are. Your boy Trader Mine, he prefaces every statement with "I'm [ __ ]". So like, you know, "Oh, your honor, Trader Mine said this was going to happen." It's like, yeah, but your honor, Trader Mine did preface that statement by saying that he's [ __ ]. So, that case is getting thrown the [ __ ] out. Um, you know what I mean?

Uh, but yeah, that's kind of the thoughts on oil. It's like, pick your poison. Lower high, things are going to get like this chart is [ __ ] gets worse, [ __ ] gets better. Which one's going to happen? That's a difficult decision. That's a difficult bet.

Okay. So, I want to get into some um some stuff that's going on in the news and stuff, guys. There's a lot happening in the world. I want to talk about it because it has an effect on the charts. So, we're going to do what we normally do where we bounce back and forth between the charts and some news items. Um, ultimately, um, I I I I think that, um, being patient is still the right move. If you're like, "I don't know what to do, Trader Mine. These conditions are killing me. I'm pissing money away." Like, again, Flood said something on a podcast recently where he said, "The best sometimes the best alpha is having money because when FTX blows up and you're like, 'I knew it. I knew there was fraud. I knew price wasn't the bottom wasn't in.' If you don't have money to capitalize in that moment, who [ __ ] cares what you knew?" And so, if you're of the belief that the bare market's not over and you think Bitcoin's going to get cheaper or you think stocks are going to come down more, if you believe all these things to be true, why are you pissing away your buying power trying to trade these markets right now? Like unless you're really good and you're able to make money in conditions like this, um, and I could say quite frankly, you're probably not as good as you think. Just be honest. I'm not as good as I think. Nobody is. Um, unless you're really good, every dollar that you lose when Bitcoin's at 70K, right, is is is worth more than a dollar if Bitcoin goes to 40. You know what I mean? So, like if you eat [ __ ] and you lose 10K here because you're trying to trade the [ __ ] news, you're monitoring the situation and then Bitcoin drops to like 45K, that 10K has even more buying power down here than it did here. So, not only did you lose 10K, you lost 10K and also the additional buying power that that $10,000 would have had lower.

So, what should you do if you don't know what you're doing? You don't feel confident, but you have money and you're waiting to deploy? In my opinion, be patient. Wait till there's a little bit more clarity. The chart is going to tell us. We are not going to bottom in one candle. Never in the history of Bitcoin have we bottomed in a single candle. It's always a range. There's always time to buy near the bottom of the move. Whether it's the bottom of the bare market or it's just the bottom before the next leg up, there's always time. There's always going to be clues in the chart. Okay? So, you can be patient and wait. None of these structures look like high time frame bottoms yet. Okay, they could, but I don't know if you notice here. Usually the bottoms consist of lows. [ __ ] [ __ ] you. Um, low, lower, low, lower, low, bottom, right? Low, lower, low, lower, low, bottom. Low, lower, low, lower, low, bottom. Low, lower, low, lower, low, bottom. Over and over and over again. And guess what the guess what the not bottoms look like? [ __ ] uptrends. Okay, so again, there will be time. You don't need to rush.

The other thing that you could do and you should absolutely do is you should trade on Breakout Prop. Hi, I'm Trader Maine, co-founder and CCO of Breakout Prop, the number one rated crypto prop firm on the entire planet. We won the award two years in a row. There's an award somewhere on that shelf back there. Okay, two years in a row, number one rated. And we just released our new trading terminal. So, if you want to trade and you don't want to risk your own [ __ ] money because you don't know what the [ __ ] you're doing, come risk my money over on Breakout. Use code Maine for a discount. All right, guys. Let's get into some of the news. Okay.

Um, you like how I just I never forget the bit. I never forget the plug. That's how you know I'm experienced. I'm like a TV host who's been doing this for 30 years. I never forget the plug. All right, guys. So, real quick, I want to give a a shout out to, as always, Kraken and NATO, uh, who are sponsoring the show. Uh, NATO is a perp dex, okay? So, NATO is a perp dex that you can, uh, trade oil on. So, if you are so confident uh that you know how to trade oil, uh, you can trade oil on chain just like on Hyperliquid, you can now trade on NATO. But one of the advantages in my opinion of trading on NATO is that you can earn INC. So, INC is going to be what is air dropped to NATO traders. I've been shilling this thing since the alpha. I'm trying to give you guys free money. I've been posting my ref link. If you want to trade on chain, you want to trade oil. They're giving out four times as many points right now. So, it's spot, it's pers, it's the L2 for INC. It's by the same people behind Kraken. Uh, and they're giving away 950,000 points each week. What I can tell you as someone who is farming this myself, there's not a lot of people farming it. So, you do not need to do a lot of volume to get some of those points. Uh, and the points are going to be tied to the INC airdrop. So, if you trade, you're going to get points. And right now, if you trade um oil, it's a four times point multiplier. So, click the link, go to NATOXYZ or just click the link in the description if you want a ref link. My ref link is there. You can trade uh NATO and support your boy Maine on the show at the same time. Okay, you guys, if you go on Twitter, I'm going to have Cody drop it in the chat on Twitter and on on YouTube, but if you go into um if you just look at my Twitter live stream that's up right now, the second post contains my NATO ref link.

So, everyone's saying, "What lockdowns are we talking about?" This is a really cool video. Okay. Um, it's by Clayton Morris from Redacted News. Thanks, Rock. What he's talking about in this video, I watched the entire 21 minute thing so you don't have to, is a controlled collapse. So he thinks that the Iran war is an obfuscation of a much broader destruction of the west of your rights and freedoms by the global elite. Your boy Maine is an avid tinfoil hat wearer. Insert the Alex Jones tinfoil hat meme right here. Okay. I'm one of those guys. When COVID happened, I talked about COVID being fake and gay, okay, very early on. Um, and that it was really a test in my opinion by the elites, the powers that be, to essentially see what they could get away with. How far can we push the public by threatening lockdowns, eroding their rights and freedoms, keeping them in their houses, not letting them use cash to buy things, keeping them away from their friends and families? And it turns out it worked really [ __ ] well. All you needed to do is tell people that, "Yay, you're going to get the flu uh if you go outside right now during flu season." Who would [ __ ] think? Um, and here's a vaccine that ended up being [ __ ]. Didn't work like it was supposed to. They lied about it. They lied about it. I'm old enough to remember 2000 and the the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and all of these earlier Middle East conflicts very similar to what we're having now was built on lies. There were no weapons of mass destruction, right? And they they lie to the public blatantly. They get caught and then the public still seems to believe them. It's like mental illness, right? And this just happens every time. It's the Epstein stuff. Wait a minute. All these people are elite evil pedos PDF files, right? And they lied to our face about all this. It comes out, the conspiracy theorists were all correct about all of this the entire time. And lo and behold, the next thing comes and the masses are eating it up like, "Oh, why wouldn't I trust the government? They must have my best interest in mind." No, they [ __ ] don't. Okay? You are the cattle in which they extract the milk from. The milk being your [ __ ] tax dollars.

So this guy has a very interesting video here where he's effectively saying this is similar to COVID, right? This is another attempt by the government to reduce your ability to be free. And they're doing it under the guise of an energy crisis this time. So gas prices, rising energy cost. Oh, you better not fly anywhere. You better not drive your car. You better not have the heat on for your house for too long. Maybe you shouldn't eat meat because it c it takes more energy to produce. It's all the same playbook. If you remember and you're deep in this game like your boy Trader Mine is, they had a pandemic lockdown protocol and demo that they did at the WEF basically saying, "Hey, if we had a global pandemic that was like a crazy flu that was killing people, what would we do?" Well, we'd lock them in their homes. And then the thing actually happened where they're now telegraphing the exact same thing happening right now. And it's under the guise of an energy crisis. They're going to use this. They're going to say they're gonna to me it's no different than the the climate change movement in my opinion, but I won't go there. Anyways, they're using in my opinion I agree very much here with what Clayton is saying in that this is going to be used to see how far they can push the public again to say, "Well, can we lock people in their houses again? Can we use this as an excuse?" All it took during COVID was giving the average person a little bit of power to shame their neighbor to make them do whatever the government said. Say, "Hey, if you take the vaccine and you wear the mask and you you social distance, you are better than the people who aren't." I live in Canada, okay? I had the prime minister saying, "I'm a bad person and I don't deserve the same rights and freedoms as someone who got vaccinated as someone who didn't." Even though now they're saying that the vaccine there's evidence that it actually is maybe potentially harming people more than it did good. Okay. So I I I I'm of the belief that this is of the same playbook here where all you need to do is give the average Karen the ability to say, "Well, I took 14 [ __ ] jabs. I wore the mask. I social distance. I'm better than the person who says, 'Well, I'm a little bit skeptical. I don't want to take it.'" And they're going to be like, "Oh my god, report them. Get them fired. Make them lose their job." It's no different than cancel culture. It's the exact same playbook. You ever been to like a festival or a concert and they give some minimum wage employee a high viz vest and a flashlight and all of a sudden this person thinks they're a [ __ ] dictator. You're driving your car and they're like, "Hold on. I didn't tell you to [ __ ] go. I told you to park over there. Don't [ __ ] mess with me." Like people yearn for power over their fellow citizen. They yearn for it. They beg for it. Okay? They want it so badly. And I would not be surprised if they use this exact same playbook again here with oil being the um the lever uh in which they push these lockdowns.

And so, uh, this is, uh, Shannon Joy here talking about exactly what I just said where there is, uh, an agency. There's always some sort of agency full of people you've never heard of and you absolutely didn't vote for who had a lockdown 2.0 meeting to discuss what are we going to do if there's an energy crisis? How are we going to [ __ ] the general public? Uh, and they're going to restrict driving, ground flights, force remote work, and ban gas cooking. Okay. Highway speed limits, license plate to determine which days people are allowed to drive. Does this not sound very similar? Saying, "Hey, government, we're going to give you this power, right, to make sure that you can enforce this vaccine passports. You can't go into the restaurant. You didn't get the shot. You can't do this." Certain countries, it was even worse than here. They had curfews. They had days where men could go out, days where women could go outside. Um, when in reality, the best solution for COVID was [ __ ] go outside, get sunlight, and don't be fat. Go to the gym. So, what did they do? They kept you in your house. They didn't let you go outside, and they closed the gyms. It's almost like they don't want what's best for you. But people are going to eat this [ __ ] up like they do every [ __ ] time. Okay. So, this is in my opinion uh what is coming next for um for um potentially this crisis that we're seeing in the Middle East is this potential for energy lockdowns. And this is another video talking exactly about this. What's the difference between a conspiracy theory theory and reality? About 6 months. Um, this Australian center says these are familiar patterns born out of the Middle East conflict similar to they did to COVID. It's the exact same thing, right? And what happened during [ __ ] COVID? Well, the market [ __ ] tanked, right? The market [ __ ] tanked during COVID, right? We had the we had the huge [ __ ] crash. Obviously, it ended up being a giga buying opportunity, but if this is anything like that, we could totally see this being the catalyst that sends price lower, which ultimately ended up being the bottom. Um, but something to pay attention to.

Okay, so this is what I believe. I'm a conspiracy theorist by heart. A lot of my conspiracies that I've shared with my friends and families, people told me I was stupid. I ended up being right. Uh, but they never come back later and are like, "Oh, you know what? I should have listened to you and not excommunicated you from our friend group or uninvited you from all this stuff because they're sitting there suckling on the tea to the government." As if the government has ever had your [ __ ] best interest in mind. The government had your best interest in mind, they wouldn't take half your [ __ ] money every year. Uh, anyways, I digress. Someone said, "What does this have to do with the charts?" Um, bro, I'm I'm [ __ ] on one right now. I'm on one right now. Okay, let me cook. Let me cook. Okay. So, um it's almost like none of this stuff ever gets talked about and then all at once it becomes a thing. If you remember during COVID it was very similar. Oh my god, we don't have enough hospital beds. They're not going to be able to handle the capacity. We need more ventilators. Now it's like, well, actually the power grids right be a national security risk. Maybe it's going to get real windy or there's going to be a cyber attack. They've talked about this for years. The next global pandemic being some sort Bill Gates talked about this, right? Like it's like they it's in plain sight being like the next global pandemic could be a cyber attack. Could be attack on the power grids, cutting people off from internets. I forget what country it was. I want to say Panama, but that might be racist because it might just be a country in South America or Central America, but it was a country in Central or South America. I can't remember what it was a few years ago where they were without power for I think 3 days and I talked to someone who was there and he said, "Dude, after 24 hours it was [ __ ] pandemonium like purge level [ __ ] like it went from, 'Oh, don't worry, everything's going to be fine' to after one day without power, people were like, 'Wait a minute, I don't have enough food. I don't have the ability to have water. I don't have [ __ ] power to heat my house. I don't have internet access.' And it got scary real quick. Uh, so how interesting that it says, well, actually our our power grids are really outdated. Maybe it's just that easy to say there's an energy crisis. We're going to have to start cutting people off on power. Uh, Puerto Rico, is that it? I don't remember. I don't remember. But yes, bottom line, you will own nothing and you will be happy. 100% correct.

So, how does this affect the charts for the [ __ ] who's like, "What do you mean? I thought we were going to talk about the charts. I'm [ __ ] I'm on conspiracy main time right now." Okay, we're on rant and rave main time. How does this affect the charts? Well, the last time we had a global pandemic ended up being the buying opportunity of a generation. So, maybe what I'm saying is if we're heading in that direction now and this is the straw that breaks the camel's back, you want to have some [ __ ] shekels available so you can buy. That is of course if the internet still works and money even has any [ __ ] use case at that point. But that Clayton Morris video goes into how this is just another example of how they're moving towards this mass surveillance state with less freedom uh with a digital dollar just like they have in China, by the way, where they have a digital yuan. They can stop you from being able to use your money at the liquor store, not being able to buy train or plane tickets because your social credit score got dinged because you've been a bad little citizen. Well, if they're tracking your license plate to see if you're driving too much, they're going to have cameras everywhere, which is already set up in places like London, they got CCTV everywhere. Uh, digital ID, digital money. Uh, this is all part of this global reset new world order plan that some of us have been talking about for a long time, but most people don't pay attention to until it's well too late anyways. So what can you do? Um, I mean [ __ ] probably nothing. If you want to be some sort of doomer and you want to run and hide um and doomsday prep, that's an option. Or you can just be like, "Fuck it. There's not much I can do anyways. I'm going to go down with the [ __ ]." Two weeks to flatten the curve, bro. How about two weeks to open the Strait of Hormuz? I I B16Z sent out a tweet something like that.

Anyways, on to lighter things. The New York Stock Exchange partners with Securitize to develop 24/7 tokenized securities platform. So, this would be some potential um uh competition for something like Hyperliquid, right? Uh, they plan a blockchain based venue for tokenized security, instant settlement, stable coin funding. They want to launch it later this year. Reflects accelerating Wall Street tokenization trend mirroring NASDAQ's effort with 24/7 RWA trading. So listen on Hyperliquid guys right now like the highest volume outside of I think Bitcoin are um equities. Like people are trading the S&P, they're trading oil. Like people want to trade traditional assets on chain. Hyperliquid has proven that model blatantly. So I've talked about this in the past. First of all, I think uh this is good. We want everything on chain. I believe it was the chair of the SEC came out a couple days ago in an interview and said that within two years all of US equities will be on chain. Okay, so this shit's coming. Now my bear thesis for Hyperliquid, right, I shared is that perhaps in this move to tokenize everything the powers that be, the governments, the incumbents in the space say, "Sure, we want everything to be on chain because there's a multitude of benefits which we can all see. However, we want it to be under our, you know, our purview. We want to be in control. We don't want it to be truly decentralized." And maybe That's the biggest systemic risk case for Hyperliquid is regulatory regulatory uncertainty where they say, "You know what, we love onchain, but you got to KYC. You got to KYC if you're going to be on chain and you're going to operate in America and you're going to offer American tokenized securities, all that stuff." Maybe that is the risk case, the bear case for Hyperliquid is is a is a regulatory wave. Far as you know, I I imagine, you know, whatever they're building here is going to be KYCed. Uh, you know, you're not going to be able to just sign up with a [ __ ] wallet. Um, they're going to want to know who you are, where you live, all that kind of stuff. Uh, but exciting nonetheless for the world of crypto, tokenize everything, macro good stuff.

Um, you know, talking about these lockdowns, right? Australia, Australia and Canada tend to be kind of the testing grounds for the [ __ ]. They say, "Hey, here's two nations full of a bunch of sheep. What can we get away with?" Um, and uh, usually Australia and Canada get the get the worst of it. Same with like New Zealand. Um, and the UK to a lesser extent, but in in Australia, I texted my buddy because I'm always like, I'm I'm old, right? I'm born in 1968, so I'm very old at this point. Um, I'm sometimes fooled by stuff on the internet, so I like to try and fact check stuff. I messaged my friend in Oz. I'm like, "Is this actually happening?" And he said, "Yes." Uh, he's like, "Yeah, there's like stuff going out about rationing fuel and blah." Like, so this is happening. Uh, so in Australia, people are siphoning petrol, that's that's gas, uh, out of cars uh, in the street, stations are running out of diesel. Uh, so getting a little chaotic with these fuel shortages. Australia obviously being an island relies heavily on imports for this stuff. Uh, so something to watch for sure as this continues to escalate. Um, here's Lick saying that my country might be getting cooked. Uh, 500 gas stations in Australia have no fuel. Like, try and think how fast things get bad. Like things that you take for granted. COVID in my opinion was very eye opening for how fragile society actually is. Um, it's extremely fragile. Um, and it's it's very it's not obvious until it's kind of too late where you're like, "Well, things are fine. I don't take anything for granted." And all of a sudden, the government's like, "You can't go outside. Only place you're allowed to go is the grocery store if we let you and stay in your house. Cops are going to be roaming the streets. Go load up on [ __ ] toilet paper and food." And it's like in an instant. And and this is similar. Like you go from, "Oh, I'm just gonna get gas in my car. All good. I turn my stove on. There's always [ __ ] natural gas." To, "Holy [ __ ], we're out of gas. Now what?" And you're underprepared. So these types of events, I think, make people realize just how fragile the fabric of society actually is. and like full-on [ __ ] chaos is not that far from our average day-to-day life, right? Like people panic very easily.

Um, getting on to some more bullish news here. Um, sorry, published a valuation report about Poly Market. You know, we love Poly Market. Click my Poly Market link below or not. Only are we going to run out of gas, we're going to run out of puppies because they're all going to the glue factory. Uh, unless you click my link. They don't even turn puppies into glue. I'm lying. I don't have any puppies. Or do I? Click the link below. Use it. Sign up. [ __ ] bet on the end of the world with me. Speculate on the end of the world with me on Poly Market. Um, Missouri released a report valuing Poly Market at a base case of 24 billion and at a bull case of 111 billion by 2028. Uh, this comes amid Poly Market seeking a $20 billion valuation. Kelsey raising at 22 billion. Um, you know, here's a quick little snippet of that report but one of the two largest prediction markets they did $31 billion in volume between September of 2025 to February of 2026. Um, pretty crazy. Uh, I wish I had Poly Market equity. Shane, are you listening? Let your boy get a taste. Let your boy invest at a ridiculous valuation. Um, but congrats to the Poly Market team. Unbelievable. Um, super stoked uh, you know, to see crypto companies, right? Because Poly Market's crypto. Um, you know, the this is to me, uh, you know, bullish again for the space. We see these companies like Poly Market, like Hyperliquid, like Breakout. See, I just shoved Breakout in there. Uh, achieve success on a global scale. Okay.

Um, speaking of Breakout, as you guys know, our terminal is updated. Okay. We had a 4.8 score on Trust Pilot. Every single negative review we had on Trust Pilot basically was, "Our terminal sucks. It lagged." All of that stuff is fixed. I did an entire terminal walkthrough. It's posted on the Breakout Twitter. So now if you go buy your account, you'll have the option to choose the Breakout terminal or the DX trade terminal. Breakout terminal is the new terminal with the help of Kraken's infrastructure. We've rebuilt this thing from the ground up. It's modern. It's fast. It's snappy. It's crypto-native. It's really slick. The mobile app is live now as well. So if you're trading with Breakout already, go check it out. Use code Maine for a discount if you want to trade on the new terminal that we got. I'm super proud of our engineering team for putting this together. It's awesome. It's a huge upgrade for us. And we own this thing. So, new features, API access, all that stuff. We actually have the ability to make changes fast and in a timely way. Um, so shout out to the Breakout team for absolutely [ __ ] cooking.

All right, guys. So, let's talk about um I I'll take a quick look at the chat here. See if there's any any questions in the chat before we move on. Also, thanks for taking the time for this. You loser. We appreciate the neck big dog. Is are you complimenting me or are you calling me a loser? Um, I'm not sure. Oh, this guy. [ __ ] off, Maine. Australia has done the right thing. What What have they done, bro? Are you Australian by chance? Listen, bro. A as as a fellow member of the [ __ ] monarchy, what I can tell you is Australia and Canada are the first countries to fall under these heavily controlled government things. Like it just it is what it is. Whether or not you believe it to be true, it is what it is. Canada and Australia had much stricter COVID restrictions than America. Like it just it is what it [ __ ] is, bro. Nothing that I said is incorrect. Whether it's right or wrong, I think is very much up for debate. I think clearly uh but that's okay bro. Uh Australia is a beautiful country. I love Australia. I'm just saying like on the whole Canadians, Australians, people in the UK, I think our societies are much more inclined to do and listen to the government as compared to like the US, right? There's parts of the US that COVID didn't exist. There was no lockdowns. Okay, so relax.

I'm planning to show hype and talent near future. Everyone's everyone's talking about TAO like I everyone's talking about TAO being like, "Oh my god, Tao, Tao, Tao" because I think TAO is TAO AI. I don't know what TAO does. Is it AI? Where can I get a where where can I get the best [ __ ] chart like with the most amount of price history? Who the [ __ ] is ever using Crypto.com for a [ __ ] chart? There we go. Okay, this seems to be You want to see the dyno? So, a lot of people on my feed have been talking about TAO. Here's what I'll say. This setup is reminiscent of hype. Um, in that we have this right, we have this, you have a big sweep and then you have a kind of a breaker here, right? This is the setup we said we liked on hype. This is this is not too dissimilar, right? Where you have a big sweep and then you have a breaker. So, you know, maybe maybe there's something to be said here that TAO actually does indeed look pretty good. Um, similar setup wise to hype like these two charts. There's some similarities in terms of the setup here, right? Monthly SFP, weekly breaker. That's a potent setup. And I shared that same setup back here on hype and it ended up printing and working out very well. Um, so maybe that's why everyone's horny on TAO. I don't know.

Plenty of sketchy things happening on under Trump right now. Yes. I'm not talking about the government itself, right? The American government was under Biden for a large part of COVID, right? And a lot of crazy [ __ ] happened with Biden that they were trying to push through and normalize. Not saying Trump is perfect, but I'm talking about the people, not the government. The people. Trump has been [ __ ] looting the [ __ ] the [ __ ] cashes lately. Seems like they [ __ ] looted crypto. [ __ ] clearly there's some insider trading going on uh in the regular markets as well. Um, I'm not trying to say that [ __ ] Trump is perfect. I'm not talking about the I'm not talking about the politicians at all. Talking about the um the the the people that exist within the country. Uh, I think people in the UK, Australia, Canada are much more inclined to follow the rules set by the government, good or bad, uh than people in America are. And a large part of that is because America, in my opinion, is the only country with true free speech because they have the right to bear arms. This is my opinion. Maybe you disagree with me, but as a Canadian, when the trucker protest happened during COVID, it went on until the government, aka the guys with guns, came in and said, "Shut this [ __ ] down." Then it was over. There's a reason why riots in America last much longer. And there can be crazy riots where you're like, "How the [ __ ] is this happening? They're burning the city down. They're [ __ ] all this [ __ ] up." Uh, it's because they know if you can't just send the cops in and expect it to go down because it could turn into a [ __ ] gunfight.

Anyways, yeah, all the podcast guys are shilling. Uh, I don't understand how a 20% reduction in in energy production could [ __ ] the world. It's almost like the flu wasn't the reason to lock down the entire planet. It wasn't as bad as they made it seem. Maybe you're right. Maybe the actual effects of a 20% reduction in the, you know, energy capacity of the globe isn't enough to [ __ ] the entire planet. But if the only way the average person gets their news is from the mainstream media, they're going to have to believe what they see on there because most people have no ability to fact check or critical think anything, right? Yeah. Again, I think that's I think that's actually the most a very good um statement. Whoever said that in the chat, I forget, but like, is it as bad as they're letting us believe? Does that even matter though? Right? Because it's is according to COVID was as bad as they led us to believe it was because you as the individual had no way to know. Like, were people dying at the rate they said? We don't [ __ ] know except for what we're told. So if they're saying we're out of gas, how are you going to know? Like, you don't know. You're just a regular [ __ ] schmo. You know what I'm saying?

Anyways, I know that I know I know I've gotten a little controversial guys in this um in this video and I I normally try to stay apolitical because I know most of you don't care. Everyone's got their own opinions and stuff. My wider broader thesis about all of this before I injected my personal views is that if they're running the same playbook again, keep in mind what that meant for the markets. One, it was [ __ ] horrific, but two, it birthed the best opportunity in the last [ __ ] two decades. So, you know what I mean? Um, but yeah, I'm not trying Listen, if you're someone who's [ __ ] getting vaccinated, like I'm not I don't judge, man. I have my opinions. I'm one of the people who I think is um like more in the middle and I just feel like both sides of the political spectrum have gone like further and further crazy. But like I respect everyone's opinions and I I'm more like libertarian. I'm like, do what you want. Whatever you think is best for you as long as you're not [ __ ] up, you know, [ __ ] me up. Go do whatever the [ __ ] you want. I do not care. Whatever makes you happy, whatever floats your boat. Um, you know, I got love for everybody.

Where should I consider to short TAO? Well, I just showed you that I think this is a pretty bullish looking setup. So, you know, if anything, if it if it plays out anything like Hyperliquid here, right, it's probably something like this, right? So, maybe we're in an area to short right now. Like, it is coming into resistance. This area, this candle here, this is resistance. But if it's anything like hype, it could just be a higher low after that.

All right, guys. So, we're gonna talk about uh some bets here and then I'll I'll let you go. Um um Okay, so SpaceX, we're hearing rumors that it might IPO, guys, at $1.75 trillion. Okay, so that's this trunch here on the yes side. $1.7 trillion dollars, right? So what's two grand pays you [ __ ] five grand? It's like a three to one basically. Um, this is the latest rumors. Now remember your boy Maine invested at a poultry 800 billion. So it's looking good for your boy Maine who's in at 800 bill. But I just followed up with the SPV in which I invested through and they let me know that I have a six-month lockup after um IPO before I can sell. So that's bad. Uh, because even if it IPOs at two trillion, who's to say six months later it's still going to be at two trillion. But if you want to speculate on the price at which it will I IPO at, right? This is the closing market cap. Uh, and um first day of trading, right? So at the end of the first day of trading, what is the market cap? These are the ranges. Right now the speculation is it's going out at 1.75. So will it trade higher, trade lower? And then if you want to do the timing uh when that actual IPO is going to happen uh you can speculate on that over here on Poly Market. And you need to be speculating with your boy Maine. You need to be clicking the link below. Support your boy Maine. I'm ranting and raving here on stream. I'm 48 years old. I'm yelling into a microphone in my spare bedroom begging you to click the link below. Okay.

So NCAA tournament, we've got games starting right now. I got some alpha from my friend. We're on Purdue. Okay, so we're on Purdue to win the entire thing. So that game just started. I'm gonna go watch it after this video is done. But we're on Purdue to win the entire thing. Purdue is a two seed. Okay, Purdue is a two seed, but if you bet on them to win the entire thing, okay, it's like a 15 to one, it's even better, right? So, when I posted this yesterday, let's just pull this up here real quick. When I posted this yesterday, I think they were less. I think they were about 5%. Let's just real quick take a look. Yeah, they were they were only 5.8. Now they're over 7.2. So, this thing's trending in the right direction. It was a 15 to one. Now, it's only a 12 to one. So, I'm on Purdue to win the entire [ __ ] thing, the whole shebang. Uh, but Sweet 16 starts today. So, if you're going to be taking some bets, um, you know, go do it on Poly Market. I'd say this has been a relatively tame, um, March Madness. So far, we haven't had a ton of upsets. Like, we haven't had a ton of upsets. We've had a couple, but like nothing crazy. Like, this was an upset. Texas over Gonzaga was an upset. Um, but we haven't had a crazy uh crazy amount of upsets. This was an upset, but right now the lowest seed still remaining is a 12 seed. So, you know, maybe this is your your pick to win the entire thing. High Point. Uh, and that would be a crazy uh, sorry, High Point's no longer in it. Excuse me. I think the lowest ranking is Texas. So, if you pick Texas to win it all, I mean, this is the Cinderella story. But I'm on Purdue 12 to1 to win it all and they're already in the Sweet 16 and they're playing an 11 seed. So, if you're doing your NCAA betting, do it over on Poly Market. Click your boy link below.

More observing the situation. So, is Car Island going to be on reing control by the end of March? No. Seems like a pretty safe bet, but as this goes out, guys, this is only three months away. It's a 50/50 coin flip. Not a lot of volume in these far out dates. A ton of volume uh in March 31st on the no side obviously. Um, but interesting if they go boots on the ground, right? If the US forces enter Iran, this is seeming more and more likely by the end of April. That's one month away. More people think yes than no. So in the next four or five days, boots on the ground, a thousand bucks pays six grand. One month later, it's less than a one to one. So if this market knows anything, if these geopolitical sharps over on Poly Market know anything, the US is going to have boots on the ground in Iran before the end of April. I don't see how that's bullish for the risk markets. But hey, something to watch. And then ultimately, this is kind of the last thing to watch. And this is the crude chart. So, I've talked about this on stream after stream at this point. This is trying to trade this is very difficult. But this chart and how it resolves really is like boots on the ground is this. No boots on the ground is probably this. So, no resolution down, resolution up. So if you combine that with the last market, people are saying boots on the ground by April 30th is a greater than 50% chance. Well then is betting on oil hitting 150, right? Um, what is this? This is WTI. Yeah. So oil hitting 150. So this is a 60% move. Even 140, this is starting to get less, but 130. Let's say this is a 5:1. So thou or 4:1, excuse me. 1,000 bucks almost pays you four grand on on oil hitting 140. And people think there's a 60% chance that there's boots on the ground before the end of April. And by that same date, basically one day later, April, right? End of April, oil hits 140. I don't see how if boots are on the ground, there isn't a new all-time high on oil. So maybe that's something that you can use as extra alpha, extra confluence there. I don't really know. I would be much more interested in trading uh oil through Poly Market than trying to trade the actual chart. The chart is too hard to trade right now in my opinion.

Last thing I want to talk about here, guys, before I let you go, is just the Fanny May uh and kind of Coinbase talk around um uh around uh the Bitcoin backed mortgages, crypto-backed mortgages. So, Fanny May is like a multi-trillion dollar lender, $4.3 trillion. They're now accepting crypto-backed mortgages. Brian Armstrong, get a mortgage backed by Bitcoin or USDC. I mean, is anyone else getting the vibes? Like, is anyone else getting the vibes that just maybe this isn't for the adoption of crypto, but it's because people can't afford to [ __ ] buy houses anymore. And they're like, "Maybe we can tap into some assets that you never wanted to tap into anyways and give you some [ __ ] debt. Let's get you in debt, little boy. Little little man, my my guy, my buddy boy. Let's get you in some debt. Let's get you in a mortgage that you can't afford. And let's tap into that sweet Bitcoin that you were holding on to, hoping to pass on to your kids one day or that was your retirement plan. Uh, let us get some [ __ ] debt associated with that Bitcoin so we can extract even more [ __ ] value from you." Right? Like back in So like there's home equity lines of credit, right? This wasn't always a thing where now it's like if you own a house, right, or you have equity in your house, they'll let you borrow against that because why not? Now you don't even own it because you have debt on it, right? And so this gives me a little bit of big short vibes of like, how bad is it out there that we're now trying to tap into crypto? I think it's a bit of both. It's bullish in the sense that like, hey, you can use crypto to prove your mortgage. Me personally, I would never let them use [ __ ] my crypto as collateral for a mortgage. That's just me. I would rather not have that debt. I'd rather borrow the money from the [ __ ] bank and collateralize the house, uh, then collateralize my crypto because effectively what you're doing here, and this guy explains it well, uh, is you're taking two loans, right? So, you don't have the cash for the down payment. So, they're going to write you a mortgage, which you have to approve for anyways. Okay? You still got to approve for the mortgage. You got to qualify, but then they'll let you also basically get a loan against your Bitcoin to fund the down payment. And it's at like a 2:1 ratio here. So, if you need a 200k down payment, you got to put up 400K of Bitcoin. Now, something I did find interesting is they're saying if Bitcoin drops in value, the mortgage terms remain unchanged and no additional collateral is required. So, the only way that you can lose your crypto um is if you miss a bunch of payments, 60 payments, uh, 60 days of missed payments, then you're at risk. I don't know. Uh, are they locking up Bitcoin for the long term? Maybe that's good. Maybe Coinbase, etc., are so bullish on Bitcoin that they don't care if you did your loan at 80K and now it's at 50K. They believe it will go up over time and you'll be able to service the debt. I don't know. I think there's some bad vibes coming in terms of how bad are things that they need to tap into people's savings, their crypto to let them borrow against it. Uh, but also kind of cool, I guess, like if you're a crypto maxi and you don't want to sell, like one of the biggest advantages of this is there's no no uh taxable event, right? So you don't have to sell your Bitcoin to now buy a house. You can borrow against it. No taxable event. Um, so interesting read. Um, you still got to be able to approve for the mortgage. You got to have more Bitcoin than you would need, but yeah, you own the Bitcoin. It's got to sit on Coinbase, meaning you got to deal with Coinbase customer service, meaning they're going to leak your information probably. Or the app's going to brick or some [ __ ], you know, and then you got the Ted Kobe and ask for help.

Um, but anyways, uh, yeah, guys, that's um that's all I got for the deep dive today. I think this is something interesting to watch. I'm getting a little bit of like bearish vibes on just kind of the world where we're asking we're tapping into people's crypto um to uh to get them lending. But hey, that's the world we live in. So, uh I'm hoping that we continue to survive and that the taco trade is actually the trade that works out uh where nothing bad ever happens and we can just continue putting along on our regular little lives. But it does seem a little bit scary out there uh with what's going on in the Middle East. These talks of lockdowns, just the general state of the economy seems not good. Um, it kind of gives me COVID vibes, but hey, the other side of COVID ended up making people a lot of money. Maybe this is similar this time. That's all I got for you guys this week.

So, I'll sign it off there. I've got a lot of stuff that I'm working on, guys. Um, I I'm coming with the uh whiteboard series for um uh some educational videos. So, that's why the whiteboard isn't in here right now. So, we're going to be working on those over the next couple of weeks. Those are going to be really awesome. It's going to be like an A to Z on price action concepts from market structure, order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity. I'm going to try and simplify it all. I'm going to show you how to put it all together. And that will be your go-to resource if you want a demystified version of how to trade price action. So, I'm excited for that. Uh, that's coming soon. Check out the new Breakout terminal, guys. Our team's been working out like crazy on it. Use code Maine if you want a discount. If you want any of my other stuff, go to my website, tradermain.com. All of that's there. Free Telegram, it's free. I post tons of charts in there, trade ideas, check that out. The Discord links in there as well. Um, and if you want to support me, click the links in the description, sign up for NATO, click the link for Poly Market, or just tell me I'm handsome and that you love me and like and share the videos. All right, guys. I appreciate you all. Thank you so much. This has been another episode of the order book. I will talk to you next week, Tuesday.