Transcription
All right, today's Thursday, December 11th, and this is a recap for the stock market activities today. And folks, I got a good one for you tonight.
In the aftermath of the FOMC decision, a lot of folks were anticipating that the market is going to like the fact that the Fed cut rates and didn't talk in such a hawkish language. Even though the decision itself and the descent and some of the comments that JPAL made would suggest that the Fed is probably not going to continue to cut from this point on, it's going to have a higher bar for any further cuts. But the market got what it wanted, a cut in December. And the market's uh way of looking at it is yeah, you know, Jay Powell in the last meeting before December, he said that don't bank on a December rate cut and next thing you know, he cuts rates. So, he can talk hawkishly all he wants and say that we're going to have a higher bar or we have uh interest rates right now closer to the broader range of neutral. All hawkish statements, but he said it before and he cut anyways. So, the market is skeptical and the market got the dose of cocaine that it was seeking from the Federal Reserve. And the market is confident, at least right now, until further data comes out and proves the market wrong. But the market right now is confident to say that we're going to have more hits of cocaine coming from the Fed in 26. So, nothing is going to derail this kind of assumption until we have fresh inflation data. That's not going to happen all the way till the year end. You're going to get fresh inflation data in Jan.
So the question now is why was the market upset today and went negative overnight? It closed a touch positive. NASDAQ still closed negative. What the hell is going on with the market? What more does the market need to see to be happy? And that leads us to the commentary today because it's really simple here folks. When you talk about the market, a lot of you all the questions that you have about the indices. What is the spy going to do? What is the Q's going to do? And honestly trading the indices I mean it's okay. We do it zero DTS. we trade from day to day, but uh I find uh trading individual stocks to be more lucrative. But when you talk about the market, quote unquote, you're talking about a technology ETF, you're talking about an AI ETF. And if the sentiment and the narrative when it comes to AI is sour, and some of the big names go down, such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, you know the deal. If some of these names go down in a meaningful way, they can push these indices down. And we've seen before in 23 and 24 that the rest of the market was falling apart, not doing pretty good. But because of a handful of technology stocks were doing okay and moving higher, the indices also moved higher. So we're about to see the inverse of that as the AI narrative begins to sour. You're probably going to see the spy and the Q's, the NASDAQ underperforming the rest of the market. That means that the equal weight ETF, the RRSP, is probably going to outperform the S&P and the NASDAQ. And we will see value sectors uh perhaps small caps, I mean small caps already outperforming the S&P and the NASDAQ. So keep that in mind. A lot of you are fixated on the indices, but these are just technology ETFs. They will go higher so long as the AI narrative is intact, but they're going to get crushed once the AI narrative begins to sour as we're seeing right now.
As to the Fed decision, was it positive for the market? Of course it was. You wouldn't notice it if you're just fixated on the indices. But I gave you this guideline yesterday. The Fed decision impacts two things. The bond market and the US dollar. And the way these two move impact certain classes of assets. We talked yesterday that the short end of the yield curve all the way to the three-year. When that goes down, it impacts small caps, regional banks, and biotech positively and vice versa. The long end of the yield curve, the 10 to the 30, when it goes down, it impacts home builders, dividend stocks, and value stocks positively, but it impacts energy negatively. When the long end of the yield curve moves higher, it's good for energy, but not so good for home builders, dividend stocks, and value stocks. Then you have the US dollar. If the dollar goes down, that's positive for metals, positive for commodities and resources, positive for multinational stocks, positive for international stocks, and positive for foreign currencies. So if you look at the scoreboard today, both the short and the long ended yield curve were down and we've also seen the dollar continuing to decline after the FOMC. So we've seen small caps going higher. The IWM actually closed positive today despite a negative close in the NASDAQ. It was a positive day for regional banks for biotech. And in the long end of the yield curve, we've seen energy going negative because yields went down. We've seen home builders going up. We've seen dividend stocks leading the way to the upside in the NYC along with value stocks. You look at the US dollar since it was down today. It was a positive day for metals, for commodities, for multinational stocks, for some international stocks and foreign currencies.
But where do we go from here? Which one of these have the most solid confirmation right now? Let's examine. So, you have the 2-year yield. Yes, it went down after the FOMC, but it's still maintaining a positive aka bullish inverse and in shoulder pattern. meaning sure you might see the 2-year weaker all the way till year end once we have new data from inflation it will probably reband a head higher again in other words I mean today I added the Russell 2000 the IWM just to chase all the way to the year end to drisk though just in case I'm buying at the top in the IWM I added it to my wife's uh Roth portfolio that way if it goes down and I indeed bought at the top she's never going to find about it until she retires and by that time I'll be dead and laughing from the grave. But joking aside, can you chase the small caps regional banks all the way to the end? Sure. But at the end of the day, I look at this pattern right here in the short end of the yield curve. It doesn't give me the all clear. It gives me a buy signal in the short run. But my two cents is when we get inflation data, it's probably going to rebound higher and then the positive trade, the bullish signal for regional banks, the small caps and biotech will change into negative.
What about the long end of the yield curve? When I look at this, what do I see? I see even a stronger pattern than the 2-year yield. I see an even more bullish inverse and shoulder pattern, which means that sure maybe the 30-year the 10-year yield kind of went down and pulled back after the FOMC and that sent an algorithmic signal to buy the value stocks, the dividend stocks, financials, staples, utilities, real estate, the healthcare. Those are the kind of sectors that led the market higher today despite technology going down. But look at this chart right here. Do you have any confidence that it's going to continue to head down? I doubt it. I think we're heading higher. So, the sustainability in the rallies of certain assets that are influenced by both the short and the long ends of the yield curve is under question. The most solid confirmation that I have at least right now is the US dollar. So, we're talking about metals, we're talking about commodities, we're talking about multinationals, international stocks, and foreign currencies. Because you look at the chart of the US dollar here, the Dixie, it flushed down after the FOMC and flushed down again today. It might be a little bit oversold. You might see a rebound in tomorrow's session, but at the end of the day, you look at this chart, at least in the daily chart, it actually looks like a topping head shoulder. And we have further declines to go. So, if I have to choose between the three, which one are you going to buy? I'm going to go with the dollar theme. Dollar goes down. It's good for metals, good for commodities, good for you know what. So, I'll give you examples. Look at my boys today. All of these names I own in my portfolio and they did pretty good today. WPM, Wheaten Precious Metals, gold miner up about 4% for the day. You got Alcoa aluminum up about 6% for the day. You got Freeport Magmaran copper up a little over 3 and a half% for the day. You got Mosaic and fertilizers up over 6% today. You have a ticker that we talked about recently, the SP that gives you exposure to both platinum and palladium that was up over 2% today. So, I'm going to stick with the metals. the resources theme and you can have other ETFs if you want to add. So you have the GNR. This is the global natural resources ETF. But look at this beautiful breakout. It's been performing pretty good for the year. Uh you could argue it's a little bit too hot. But again, when I look at the outlook for the dollar, it's heading down already. If the Bank of Japan begins to firm up the end, we have further declines in the US dollar and that's going to be pretty good for an ETF like GNR, a sister ETF to this one right here, cuz some of you might have different exposures. Maybe you're not going to have exposure to GNR depending on your location, but you have GU NR, a similar ETF, just different formation. This is the Morning Star Global Upstream Natural Resources ETF, also trading at all-time highs. Look at these two ETFs. So, what you're looking at right now is the GNR in white and the GUNR in blue. Then in uh green, you have the NASDAQ. Year to date, both of these natural resources ETFs, and we talked about them, by the way, back uh when we had Liberation Day fiasco that these should be a buy. And look at this year to date. They're outperforming the NASDAQ.
Now, there are some themes that are also influenced by the dollar. And if we think that the dollar is going to go down, continuing I should say, to go down, it's going to be positive for something such as the IGF. This is the global infrastructure ETF. Although, to my taste, it's a little bit too hot. So, I'm going to wait for a pullback before I buy it. Another one that looks uh maybe a little better, ready for a breakout is the MO. This is the Agri Business ETF. So think fertilizers, seeds, farming equipment. These names are lumped into this ETF right here. And I think it pays a dividend too. So you have a lot of choices here besides technology and the stupidity of just passive investing and buying the indices and relying on the AI bubble to continue to inflate, which I think right now you have a lot of evidence that the AI bubble is deflating. The good news is you have other alternatives. And keep in mind that the Maverick portfolio is crushing the S&P and the NASDAQ combined. Why? Because from the get-go this year, we said go ahead with the inverse dollar theme. Chinese equities, Brazilian equities, Korean equities, the Swiss Frank, gold miners, palladium, and this is how we outperformed. I think that this theme is going to continue into 2026.
Now, you look at this right here and you say, well, what about again, what about the S&P and the Q's MAV? Once again, these are technology ETFs. They depend on the health of the AI bubble. Yesterday, we had Oracle and uh it was a disappointing result. So, Oracle went down by more than 13% today. And after the bell this session, we got AVGO Broadcom. Initially, it was a positive reaction, but then it flipped to negative. And the name last time I checked is down over 5% after hours. Now yesterday we talked about the donkey indicator because you have to combine the technicals, the fundamentals with the sentiment aka the psychology. So the donkey indicator is one of my favorite. And yesterday we gave you example. Here's another example. This is from yesterday. This guy says AVGO CEO just does the business of quarter. Hawk not your daddy tan will deliver once again the squatter market. Well uh we marked it and AVGO actually went negative. When they're too euphoric, these stocks are going to go down.
Now, don't forget about Nvidia because that's the most important name in the AI bubble and that's the most important name in the indices. When we look at the Broadcom's earnings, the company revealed its mystery $10 billion customer and that's Anthropic. If we read the details right here, listen to this. Anthropic placed an order for Google's AI chips. Tan said Broadcom makes custommade chips, including Google's, which some experts say are more efficient for certain AI algorithms that Invidious chips. We talked about the cannibalism stage of the AI bubble. We talked about the contagion stage of the AI bubble. And right now, you're seeing the most important name in the stock market being squeezed. The bad news after bad news after bad news. Even with the administration desperately allowing the sales of the H200 chips to China, China said no thanks. We don't want them and you can't sell them the most advanced chips at Blackwell or the Reuben after that. So what else? You have Google now eating their lunch and stealing away market share. You have Amazon developing their own chips. You have Microsoft doing the same. You have Meta also developing its own chips. All of them going to take market share away from Nvidia. That market share by the way is by these companies. 61% of the sales of Nvidia chips come from these four companies. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. Meaning at some point, Nvidia is going to lose 61% of its revenue sources. On top of that, today we got the news that even Revon is now developing their own chips and they're going to forgo Nvidia's chips. And this is Nvidia's fault, by the way, because they've been too greedy with the price gouging. So, this is the result. It was just a matter of time before it happens. In any case, assume Nvidia loses over 50% or 60% of their sales because these customers are now making their own chips. How do you think that's going to jive with the market quote unquote if Nvidia goes down 20 30 40 50%. It's going to be horrific for the indices and therefore in 2026 anybody who's going to hold the indices and do the passive investing they will get annihilated. It's going to be a picker's year. And if you listen to the propagandists uh on TV and CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, etc., they would say, "Oh, it's this year, the year that we're in right now, 25 has been a horrific year for stock pickers." Who are you talking about? How about you interview me? I've been picking stocks and I beat all of the passive investing managers, S&P, the NASDAQ combined. In 26 is going to be even more of a stock picker year.
Lastly, before we move on, since we're talking about stock picking, a recent pick that we did is Lululemon. And I got to admit, today before earnings, I was about to shed my pants because uh it turns out that I overinvested in Lululemon and the name crashed twice in a row in the previous earnings. So today when we got the initial response that Lulu went down, I was sweating bullets. But then we got the news that the CEO, which has been a horrific CEO by the way, is finally stepping down. And shares of Lululemon went up by over 10% and now we're making big bucks in our Lulu investment. So once again folks, I mean 10% in a single day, that's half, more than half of the S&P's yeartoate gain. So once again, I reiterate and I challenge anybody. Anybody who wants to challenge me, go ahead and tell me that stock picking is not going to work out. Stick to passive investment. I'm going to keep beating you. So warning to the retirees, warning to seniors and those who've been relying on the passive investment, looking at the 401k and saying, "Ah, look at this. We're doing pretty good. Let's use the credit card and go on a cruise." You better be careful because it's going to be annihilation in 26 for passive investing.
And with that folks, let's add more color to this conversation by revisiting the market activities today, beginning with the closing of the indices. And uh here we go. The long end of the yield curve was down. So we see the Dow Jones dominated by value and dividend paying stocks closing positive. Actually alltime highs in the Dow up 1.34% for the session. But you have your AI dominated ETF, which is the NASDAQ that actually closed negative by about quarter of a percentage point. S&P 500 eaked a gain, but it was underperforming because of its exposure to AI and it only managed to ek 0.21% worth of gains. On the other hand, the short end of the yield curve dominated Russell 2000 closed positively. No troubles here, up by 1.17%. Now you look at these sectors. Metals led the way in a big way. Financials of course steepening of the yield curve is pretty good for financials. Industrials, multinationals, they depend on the dollar going down. The dollar was down today. So, so far so good. Got defensives, healthc care, utilities, real estate, dividend paying sectors. But when you have the long end of the yield curve heading down, they do pretty good. What's not doing pretty good? Technology, come services. That's your AI problems. In energy because of the long end of the yield curve went down. Looking at the breadth, the market maker lost in the NYSE because they love to close 50/50. That's when they make maximum pain for both the calls and the puts. And they achieved that in the NASDAQ because it was close enough. 55% of the volume advancing, 43% of the volume declining, but they lost to who? They lost to the bulls today at the NYSC. 69% advancing, 30% declining. You look at the heat map once again in the morning brief today, I said weakness in the market today will be sourced from AI and big tech stocks, but you'll see other stocks or other sectors moving higher. And if you look at the map right here, the weakness is limited to the chips. Taiwan, Broadcom, Nvidia, Micron, and the Oracle. Of course, the weakness is in some other AI names like Alphabet, Amazon, but the rest of the market did pretty good because it's dominated by the dollar and the bond market. So, we see financials doing pretty good, healthcare doing pretty good. You see metals, real estate, utilities, industrials, staples doing pretty good. Even the cyclicals did pretty good today. That will change though if we see let's say bond yields rebounding higher or the dollar rebounding higher. So keep that guideline folks and follow it. Now energy down because long end the curve went down not up. So you look at the map it worked exactly as we talked about in last night's video when we gave you the guideline.
Moving on to commodities. What do we see here? We see pullbacks in crude oil, WTI, Brent, gasoline, arb, all energy were down. Heating oil down. Natural gas continues to eat it in the chin. And that's because of the warmer weather forecast. But energy all in all down because the long end of the yield curve, the yields went down. But we do have geopolitical tensions right now brewing once again. We got the report after the bill exclusive from Reuters. US is preparing to seize more oil tankers off Venezuela. So they already uh they they hoofied the tanker yesterday of Venezuela and they plan to do more. I wonder if Israel is going to bomb us. In the meantime, if we see geopolitical tensions, that could be good for energy to rebound iron. The dollar was down today, so that's good for who? Good for metals, gold up 2%, silver up about 5%, platinum up 4%, copper up 2 and a half%, palladium up over 3 and a half%. It's also good for grains. But we talked about the Trump administration instead of giving the soybean farmers a market, they're giving them bailouts. So soybeans still lagging, but wheat managed to ek a gain of about 1%. Dollar going down is good for coffee. So coffee up about 1% and cocoa and softs also up yet again little over 1 and a.5%.
Moving on, the big casino options. What do we see here? The volume finally showed up all of a sudden. It's still lower than usual, by the way, but it showed up today. And it showed up, as I suggested, on the side of the puts. So yesterday, if you look at the calls versus puts, you saw high 60s into the 70s. 70% call, 75% calls, no demand for puts at all. Today, when the volume showed up in the options market, investors bought protection and some downside bets on some of these assets. So I expect once again that we will see a chop down in the indices before we see a little bit of a rebound and then stability/ consolidation all the way to the year end. Now if you want to hedge your portfolio or you want to do some downside bets I mean look at the implied volatility here folks. The IV rank IV percentile for most names it is still suppressed in Tesla. These are the cheapest options specifically put options that you've seen in a long long time. Same thing goes for Apple. 4% in the IV percentile, 5% in the IV rank. You see it in Robin Hood, which was down about 9% today. Even with that, the IV rank is still at 4 and a half. You look at Palanteer, Palanteer is at zero. The cheapest put options you'll ever get your hand on. So, if you long Palunteer, you got to hedge your portfolio. If you want to bet against Palanteer, these cheapest they're going to get. If you want to buy the puts for February or March, you think Palanteer will go down uh next year. This is your opportunity right now.
Let's do the unusual activities beginning with the bullish ones. Talk about CZR, Caesars Entertainment. I'm short the name, so when I see a trade like this, I have to follow it as a hedging strategy. The trader bought the 25 calls. That's closer to the money right now in Caesars. The expiration date is March 20, 2026. To finance that buy leg, they sold the 30 calls with the same expiration date. All in all, spending about $900,000. What they're saying is that Caesar is going to move up. It's got trade above 25 but not above 30 by March 2026. What did I do in my shorts? I bought the same trade. You know why? If Caesar's rally higher, I can close my short at 25, but I can still short it again at 30 if it trades above 30 by March. Got another bullish one for you. We talked about this that the equal weight is probably going to outperform the S&P because of the technology u contagion that we see right now. So, somebody bought the 198 calls for the RSP. Right now, we're trading at a bad 194. The expiration date is Jan 16, 2026. They spent about $2 million in those.
On to the bearish ones. How about Nvidia? Here it is. So sour on technology, on AI, on chips, but the equal weight is doing pretty good. So Nvidia in this case, this is really interesting cuz somebody bought the 165 puts for the expiration date, December 26, 2025, spending about $1.5 million. They think Nvidia is going to be below 165 by the end of the year. And here's another one that goes handinhand with the trade for Nvidia. How about TSM Taiwan? This is a big one. It's closer to the money, so it could be a hedge for somebody who's long Taiwan. They bought the 300 puts for the expiration date of Jan 9th, 2026. All in all, spending about $9 million. If I'm reading the options market correctly, it is coming to consensus with me. It is saying that look, from this point on, weakness in technology, weakness in AI, weakness in chips, but other sectors of the market will be okay.
onto the charts. Beginning with the daily chart for the E- Mini futures for the S&P 500. What do we see here? We went down initially all the way closer to the 50. Not quite though. And then the buyers stepped in again. We closed at a positive close here for the E- mini futures, but still maintaining this rising wedge pattern. And my two cents would say that if technology continues to weaken, it's going to be really, really hard for the S&P 500 to move higher. I mean, you can have the financials going up. You're going to have uh industrials going up, but if technology sells off in a meaningful way, we're talking about two, three, three and a half% and some of the big names, it's going to drag the S&P 500 down with it. You see that weakness in the NASDAQ, by the way, the NASDAQ looks as the weakest among the bunch among the S&P, the Russell 2000. Certainly, the NASDAQ is the weakest and right now we have the falling wedge. We're kind of breaking away from that and I think that we have a retest to that 50 days moving average and that could be a pullback that if we don't find support of the 50 it might expand. We have more correction to come. But certainly you look at Oracle, you look at AVGO's earnings, we don't have confirmation for the NASDAQ to move up and trade higher unless there is really really low volume and the sellers just abandon trading for the rest of the year and go away. Absent of that, I think we have more selling to come. At least for some of the recent entrance in these positions in Nvidia and AVGO and Microsoft or whatnot. There are folks who are not really concerned about taxation because they entered pretty recently. And if they continue to watch the price to go down, all of a sudden they're not going to go with gains at the end of the year. So, they're better off selling and locking in some gains before these g gains turn into losses by year end. So that could be the catalyst for selling and perhaps a revisit in the NASDAQ futures all the way down to the 50 days moving average.
No problems in the IWM. You have your bull flag pattern. We broke above we broke above the the resistance 25255. And the reason is of course we have the 2-year yield, the short end of the yield curve heading down. Now at some point, of course, we're going to get a technical rebound in the 2-year. And sure, you'll see pullbacks in the IWM, but you have to remember one thing. Jerome Pal in the Fed said that they're going to do quantitative easing. He didn't say that directly, but we're not stupid. They're going to buy bonds at the short end of the curve all the way to the three, which means that you have a ceiling. Whatever rebounds you're going to see, whatever rallies you have in the short end of the yield curve, you have the Fed's ceiling. If that is the case, then you might see pullbacks in the IWM, but if the economy is still intact, those dips are going to be bought.
What about tulips, BTC, Bitcoin? What do we see here within a larger bare flag pattern still going on? You can argue this is sort of a rising wedge right here within a bare flag pattern. In any case, right now it's holding. It's not crashing. So, the market is happy about that. Now, if Bitcoin begins to trade and close below 90,000 again, that's going to be problematic because it means that Bitcoin will probably flush down, retest the lows right here. If that is the case, then that could send an algorithmic signal to dump the indices, the S&P, the Q's, including the IWM, by the way. So, Bitcoin remains an important part of the conversation. If we zoom into the hourly chart, somebody been rescuing uh Bitcoin when it dips below 90. We see the buyers showing up again with huge quantities, defending that 90,000 threshold. The problem is we don't see followup after that. Whoever buyer could be drunk Michael Sailor, by the way, is doing the buying at or below 90,000. Nobody's following up right here and saying, "Okay, yeah, 93, 94,000, that's a pretty good price for Bitcoin. Let's buy." And if this dynamic continues, whoever been buying right here and rescuing Bitcoin, they're going to run out of funds. They're not going to be able to do it over and over and over again without a follow-up. So, what's going to happen is we hit down and after that the sellers begin to resume. After they see some stability here, but we're not moving back in the high 90s again. And if we move down to 90,000, we break below. They might say, "Okay, you know what? We have further downside coming at Bitcoin. We better exit here before we have to exit at 82,000." And that leads to the sell-off.
We look at the dollar. It is heading down. It is a bearish formation, but is it a little bit oversold? The answer is yes. plug in your Ballinger bands were the lower Ballinger bands which means we could see a little bit of a rebound in the dollar in a little bit of a pullback in the metals, the resources, the commodities, etc. But I think that that dip should be bought because whatever rebound we have in the dollar, uh, it will probably head down. You have to remember that we have the BOJ meeting coming out next week and if they firm up the yen that's going to push the dollar down. So I only see negative catalysts here for the dollar all the way to the rand. Maybe in 26 when we get higher inflation data, the Fed begins to become really really hawkish, not just pause but begin to talk about the rate hikes. If that is the case, then we can see the dollar rallying in a sustainable way and then we have to reconsider our positioning in metals, etc. But right now, so far so good. And you have the old man gold popping higher today. Got the confirmation, right? The old man is conservative. Didn't want to really party after the FOMC right away cuz maybe the dollar going down is a knee-jerk reaction. But when today the dollar went down, the old man said, "Okay, I got my confirmation to move up once more." If the dollar rebounds and oversold rebound, you could see a pullback in gold futures, but my two cents it will be bought and we hit higher later on. You look at copper, copper is ready to break above 5 a half. It's been trying over and over and over, but now it appears that's going to happen in ABC breakout. That's going to depend, of course, on the dollar going down. So tomorrow's session if you see the dollar rebounding you might see a little bit of a pull back in u in copper futures but all in all it's making higher lows and higher highs I think in time it'll make it above 5 1/2 and rally all the way back to the highs right here.
On the other hand crude oil doesn't look pretty good. We have a trend line if you see the higher lows and we have lower highs and we're about to break below the trend line. That's a bearish formation. Unless, of course, what? Unless we have tensions with Venezuela uh materializing. And if that is the case, if we have a geopolitical event, not just seizing oil tankers and whatnot, but an actual uh intervention, military intervention, that's going to lead to a pop and a short covering rally in crude oil. But absent of that, the technicals alone don't look pretty good here. They suggest more downside to come. With that being said, you can stick to some big energy names such as uh Exxon Mobile right here. We talked about this yesterday. We own the name. It's been trading pretty good. Even though with the lower prices of crude oil, we see Exxon outperforming and now it's kind of flirting with the previous high from 2024. I think it's going to make it and break above these highs. And if you have a surge in crude oil because a Venezuela event happening, I think that's going to be a cherry on top. It's going to accelerate the pace of the breakout to all-time highs in Exon Mobile.
What about Apple? We see a bare flag formation. and it kind of did play out today, but we found buyers right away. So, that makes me a little bit nervous if I want to initiate a bearish trade. Let's say a put options trade. If I buy the 275 puts and I sell the 270, betting for a revisit to the 50 days moving average right here. And the reason is we found buyers, but if we dip below that uh support right here, I have it at 27725. Let's round that down to 277 to be conservative. If we lose it again, then I'm ready to go with the 275 270. put debit spread with the expiration date of next week. Otherwise, I'm holding off for now.
Nvidia on the other hand, you have your rising wedge pattern/bear flag pattern. I didn't mean to do that. Here's your bare flag right here. And we have a breakdown. You found some buyers today. A lot of folks probably assuming that hey, we have low volume week and you have to buy the dips and Nvidia is going to recover, but you have oracle warning and after the bell, you have a negative reaction by Broadcom. I think that at the end of the day, Nvidia probably needs to revisit 175 and check that as support. But if it breaks that support, if it goes down at this point, be honest with you, it's going to break below that 175, then you have to revisit the trade that we just talked about in the unusual options activities. Somebody betting that Nvidia is going to be in the 160s by the end of the year. Why would that be the case? It would be the case because you have to look at the chart right here. Most of the buyers in Nvidia since the summer been entering at these prices right here, if not higher. So, if we break 175, a lot of them going to panic and say, you know what, I might as well just lock the loss right here and uh assume that in my taxes for 2025 rather than holding and then it gets ugly in 26. And that kind of thinking would lead to a selloff that takes Nvidia back to the 160s before the end of the year. But that is imperative on a revisit to 175 first. So, we'll give Nvidia the benefit of the doubt that it could find buyers in tomorrow's session and try to close the gap. But honestly with the Broadcom's reaction, it's kind of hard to see that happening.
And lastly, the Soule Tesla, we have a little bit of a battle right here. We can't do anything about it because if you want to buy put options or trade Tesla down, you need to see a close below the 50 days moving average right here. If you want to buy Tesla or buy calls on it, you need to close above the gap right here. And we haven't done any of that yet. If we close above the gap in Friday's session, tomorrow's session, I would say, okay, buy the 270 calls with the expiration date for year end. uh if we head down instead and we break below the 50 days moving average, I would say go ahead with the 420 puts with the expiration date of the end of the year.
Moving on to the conclusion of this video, what do we have in the economic calendar tomorrow? You got bunch of Fed zombies talking. Uh the most interesting one would be Chicago Fed Goulsby aka the golden piss who was cutting rates and had no problems cutting rates under Biden, but now all of a sudden he has some problems. He was one of the dissenters by the way. So I want to hear what he's going to say. And that, by the way, that statement from Goulsby, the golden piss in tomorrow's session could move the market. It could actually move yields higher if he says, "You know what? I'm still going to vote for a pause in the next few meetings and if inflation goes up, we might actually vote for a hike." Boom. That's going to be a problem for the market.
On the earnings calendar, nothing for tomorrow, of course, but for next week, it gets really interesting because a lot of folks say we're through with the earning season. Not yet. We have plenty of interesting names next week. We have Micron, we have uh Nike, we have FedEx, we have Carnival Cruises, we have LAR, we have GIS, General Mills. All of these are good leading indicators for the consumer. And the list goes on. We have Don restaurants. We have Kaggra. We have Lamb Western. That's also your restaurant, your bar, French fries exposure. You have CarMax. We have plenty of names here, folks, that would give us a clear impression on the health of the consumer. And all of that will come out next week along with what the last opex options expiration monthly for the year. And we could see a movement. We could see the market acting one way or the other. My two cents is we went significantly higher in a short amount of time in a rebound since Thanksgiving. We're about to see a counter reaction to that with a chop down. Then after next week, the Santa rally begins and we see a rebound and consolidation all the way to the year end. That would be my outlook for now.
But with that folks, this is all I got for you for tonight. Thank you for listening. Thank you for watching. I appreciate and I love all of you. I'll be talking to you again tomorrow. Good night. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat. Heat.