Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in good shape, that you have your little something. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, October 17, 2025. And there, you're going to tell me, the potato is rather squashed because the crypto market unfortunately is taking a hit today. So, it's not taking a hit alone if we take a little look at the traditional markets. Wall Street is not great. Here, we see Europe is also a little bit red, but still, cryptos today are correcting very strongly. Are we surprised? No, not at all. It's simply following the scenario of the structure since we had the flash crash last week. We're proceeding on the principle that at the structural level, we have what most often makes a regular flat, and so we've seen that pretty much every day. I've also put up a little chart, a bit of a joke. Feel free to go see that on social media and on the VIP Telegram channel. Well, it's been quite a few days that we've been short. In any case, I've taken several shorts because it doesn't smell good. And as I explain every morning, for those who don't know, I send a trading-style analysis where I show you my trading plan a bit every morning for the day. And well, these past few days, there have been bearish channels. I'm taking a little pause. Each time, there have been several bearish channel opportunities here to go short because not only are these little channels finally bearish channels, sorry, which are rather bearish, they are bear flags. That already tells you it doesn't smell very good. It smells of a decline, but in addition, the main structure itself is a regular flat to retest the lows. So we're not surprised that Bitcoin is going to scrape and retest its lows, quite simply. And so each time we've had little bear flags, and these little bear flags are simply channels that have a higher probability of breaking downwards. So well, that's why I was short, and then finally today, well, for some it's a bad day, but for those who are short here like me, well, it's rather a good day. It allows us to accumulate a little stablecoin to be able to buy lower.
Now, regarding ETFs, we have Bitcoin ETFs, yesterday $530 million out. That's starting to sting. Ethereum ETFs, $56 million. So for now, ETFs are also a bit sellers. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the crypto market too much. Regarding altcoins, well, we are on the 200-day moving average which is here around $712 million. If we start to close a candle body below it, so it really has to be the candle body that closes below, it doesn't smell good. It means a significant decline is going to happen, and we're going to be looking for not very pretty levels. The bottom of the wick is far away, but well, it could continue to bleed to reach it, unfortunately.
Well, at the structural level here, we'll wait. If you see another bear flag forming, so a bullish channel, boom, it will unfortunately be the continuation, knowing that well, the structure is like Bitcoin, several solutions. First solution, well, if you want, you can have the little A here, the little B, you can have a little C to then boom fall back for this big A, this big B, this big C. Then you go again, so you want, you just have to go quite low at worst, well at best you do a running flat like this, or you have then the big A, the big B, the big C which will give another push before going again. So these are the kinds of structures we're going to have, structures that will last for weeks and weeks and weeks. It's going to be long, if you want. Well, so for now, if here we see a bullish channel, poof, it will unfortunately be the continuation of the decline. The bears are here, the bears here, we see they have momentum. For now, there is no weakness in the momentum. If we start to break this 200-day moving average, well, it will be the significant decline that continues, and the Bollinger Bands, they are here at 703 billion. If the 703 billion, day after day, boom boom boom, the candles hit it, the Bollinger Bands will continue to widen downwards, and the candles will slide on it. Unfortunately, to be good, we would need to regain this 50-day moving average at 837 billion, which was rejected here on Monday, Tuesday. Well, for now, it seems a bit far from beloved Bitcoin.
Well, this doesn't smell like roses. Why? Because the 200-day moving average, which is here at 107380, we are breaking it. So if we start to break it, it doesn't smell good. We'll wait for a second candle anyway. That is to say, if afterwards we see a second red candle confirming the break of the lower Bollinger Band at 105500, we are there now. Yes, it will indeed be a decline to $100,000 or even lower. So breaking the 200-day moving average, that's not pretty at all, but well, we can have a green candle that recovers it suddenly, you see, it's not a problem, one candle, but if we have a second candle that moves away from the 200-day moving average and confirms the break of the lower Bollinger Band, then it doesn't smell good. So you've understood, we have a candle about to make really red that's starting to attach, you see. Knowing that the bears are here, the momentum is growing, and they're not letting go. The bears are not nice. For Bitcoin to be good, it needs to recover here, there are quite a few resistances around $115,500. We have the Tenkan here, the Kijun, the 50-day moving average. Uh, we also have the new Ichimoku, we have four resistances, a quarter of resistance, huh. Well, there you go. And so it needs to pass these $105,115,500 to become structurally good. Well, there you go, little A, little B, little C. So either here, it's almost over and then it starts again. Or it's a bit more complex with a first impulse and then a wave A, a wave B, a wave C to then fall back for this big A, this big B, for a big C. Then to go again. So if we start to see Bitcoin going up, up, up, we'll be careful not to have, in the end, here, you see, a kind of small A, small B, small C to then finish with our last push downwards. So that's the idea because since we broke the bottom of the wick, well, we're on a running flat, and this also has probabilities, even if it gives a little push upwards, to fall back once again. Now, in the short term, the short term, this evening, tomorrow, we're watching. If we see a bullish channel on 1 hour, boom boom boom, lam, it will be the significant decline. And I'll go short again, you see, quite simply, just like there were short opportunities, short opportunities, short opportunities. Well, here again, a short opportunity, boom. Well, so for now, we'll see which channel it draws, but well, it's certain that the structure itself doesn't smell bullish.
So, I'll do a long-term analysis on Sunday as usual, but don't forget that we still have the main structure, the big structure behind all of this, it's this one. It's this one where we went through the big wave A, I'll talk about it this weekend when we went from around $110,000 to $74,000. All of that is wave B. Okay. And we could expect a wave C that will arrive one day. I've been talking about this since before this summer, okay? And this summer, I really hammered it home several times. Why? Because there were a lot of bearish divergences weekly, notably the third bearish divergence weekly when we broke $126,000, when we made a new all-time high. I told you, I'm not inventing anything, I'm reading what I see in front of me. Bearish divergence for the third time at the 3rd all-time high. I was in "Okay, I'm putting aside stablecoins for a bear market." Caution often pays off, you see. Well, after that, those who didn't sell, who didn't listen, well, I can't do anything for you. I'm not Nostradamus, I listen to technical analysis. Weekly bearish divergence for the third time. Well, there you go, you see. Well, now the question we're asking is, is wave C for this giant running flat going to happen? Well, given the aggressive impulse, it remains possible because this is quite aggressive what we have here. You see, this is quite, I'll hide all the drawings a bit. This is quite aggressive, and since it broke the lows, notably this one at $107,000, be careful, you see. To say "Yes, it's good, we've bottomed out, we need to break this." You break $98,000, ah, then it's good. You are really in the big wave C. That is to say, it will look for at least $92,000, the gap, or even lower. So to really say we've bottomed out, we need to break here at $98,000. However, already having broken $107,000 here, ah, you say to yourself, aren't we in the big C. on a weekly basis? Well, we'll analyze the weekly on Sunday as every Sunday, I do a long-term weekly analysis and we look at the big weekly structures, and that's where I tell you, beware, a bearish divergence stinks, or a bullish divergence smells good. There you go. Well, we'll see on Sunday.
Regarding liquidity, there's not much more to look for. Will it nibble a bit up to $100,000? It can, but it's not obliged to. Look, to the south, there's almost nothing, not even 3 billion. Whereas to the north, if Bitcoin goes to, for example, $120,000, well, it will eat 14 billion. So at some point, boom, I think there will be a big bullish wave. The big bullish wave could happen from one day to the next, or it could explode. We'll just be careful. We could have here an A, a B, a C that doesn't break $116,000. All of that is a big B for this A, this B. And boom, another last C before going again. But if we have that, it's a very bullish structure for an uptrend. Okay? We'll just be careful about that.
Ethereum, it's on its lower Bollinger Band. That's it, if it makes a red candle that breaks here $3680, its lower Bollinger Band, well, it will look for its 200-day moving average at $3170, which will be its first major support. The bears are here, they are not happy, they are angry. It hasn't tested its wick yet, it could easily test its wick, you see. Here, there. So it continues to nibble. Knowing that here, if it makes a bullish channel, zigzag zigzag, you know the tune, boom, it will continue to fall. Well, for now, there's no reversal structure, and since it hasn't broken the bottom of its wick yet, we need to be cautious, you see, with Ethereum, knowing that there's still a small cluster waiting below $3500, and so this little cluster below $3500 would just be to eat below the bottom of the wick. So in any case, if you see a small channel forming here in the next few hours, boom, it will be the continuation to test the bottom of the wick, simply, and eat all of that.
Like Bitcoin, there's a lot to eat to the north, over 5 billion if it goes to $4300. So at some point, when we've finished nibbling, nibbling, nibbling, well, boom, it will make a nice bullish wave, but it might not be "to the moon." It will be for an A, a B, a C. So if it doesn't break the wick, it can look above $4300 to make a small regular flat, then big A, big B, big C, a small running flat, sorry, that would be good. However, if it starts to break the bottom, it will be more like Bitcoin with a rise that won't have broken the previous high. It won't break $4300 to make a running flat and then well, boom, fall to make the last one. Once again, in fact, if you do a running flat, that is to say, those that will break like Bitcoin the bottom of the wick, they can make a recovery but with a high probability of coming back one last time to make a new low. That's what the structure tells us. You see, at Solana's level, well, Solana is on its 200-day moving average at $173. It held for 3 days between October 10th and 12th. If it holds, Solana will try to make a small double bottom to try to go again. If here the 200-day moving average at $173 is broken, it will be a direction towards the gap at $121. It can sting. For Solana to be good, it needs to regain its 50-day moving average at $216. For now, well, the bottom of the wick hasn't been regained yet. The bottom of the wick at $170, we still have quite a bit of liquidity waiting below $170. $170 is there. So it could eat, like Ethereum, this little cluster, go look below the $170 wick after eating the wick, make one last upward move, boom, like this, to validate this little running flat. You see, however, it won't go above $211, it won't go there. It will stop before that, it's a running flat, and then big A, big B, boom, big C, a second shot, a second bearish wave. You see, this is the first one, there will be a second one, but after the second one will be the last one because the structure will be finished, and then boom, validation of the structure, everyone is going up. There you go, that's a bit how I see the structure, in any case, at the current time. So, don't be surprised if it goes below $170 to eat what's below the bottom of the wick. However, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, well, there's a lot of money to the north, and at some point, it will make a nice bullish wave to go and get all of that.
XRP, to finish, it's here on its lower Bollinger Band which has started to widen with last Friday's candle. If it starts to break its lower Bollinger Band at $220 and its Kijun, which is also at $220, there's the gap to look for at $213. If it makes a candle that does something like this, breaking all of that at $213, it will be the nuclear descent that begins. Okay. Now, if it holds, if it just goes to its gap at $213 and manages to hold, for it to be good, it needs to regain its 50-day moving average at $2.85, and then it will smell good. Ah, to note that XRP is not far from the oversold zone, you see. So it's rather something interesting, something, something, zones where it's very good to buy. That's a bit the idea, you see, of these oversold zones. Well, after that, given that the big wick went so far, it's complicated to say it will test its big wick because it's a 5-year low. So it has a separate, somewhat messy structure. So we forget about testing the big wick. It might have a little bit to nibble. I wouldn't be surprised if it nibbles just that to go look for the gap at $213. The $13 gap is right next to it. It would be quite surprising if it didn't fill that $13 gap. So if we see it continue to make a small bullish channel, boom, it will just fill that $13 gap. It can look below this wick at $10 to eat a little bit up to $10, just eat that. And like the others, we'll have to expect a nice bullish wave after that, once we've nibbled.
So to summarize, okay, we're falling, we're not surprised because the structure told us for everyone, well, especially for Bitcoin, which is the leader of the market, the structure has been telling us for a week, I'm going to go look for here, or I'll make a regular flat and then I'll go look for the bottom of the wick, or I'll make a running flat and I'll go look for the wick and then a second time before going again. So we're not surprised, it's following the structure. Now, let's not forget the positive thing, which is that everyone has a lot of liquidity to the north, and at some point, well, we'll have to go and get all of that. So, in short, you have to hold on tight. Soon, it should be over. There you go, to put it crudely.
Now, regarding the stock market, well, Wall Street is not great, not great, Europe even less so. This morning, I talked about it a bit in the news videos, there are starting to be defaults. It's a bit normal in quite a few American banks. The finance sector is starting to struggle a bit, and you see it in the European finance sector, it's all red too, you see. It's starting to be like "oh my god, oh my god." Well, anyway, I'll talk about all of that in this morning's news video. Go watch it. Okay. We still have chances of rate cuts by the end of the month. We went from 80% to 100%. We went to 100%. 99.1, 99% chance of a second rate cut. There you go, we should be pretty good. What to remember, the most important macro figures to come are that next week, next Friday, the inflation figures. There you go. So for now, between today and next week, there are no major macro figures. The US government is closed. The only catalysts, both bullish and bearish, will be Trump opening his mouth. If he opens his mouth in a way that he'll attack China, it will make red. If he opens his mouth in a way that "It's good, we have an agreement with the Chinese president, I love him, it's great, he's so nice, he's my best friend." Boom! That will make big green. Unfortunately, he's the one who makes the weather, this guy. Well, so at the moment, the S&P 500 is quite bearish. You see the candle is getting a bit flattened. Well, the Nasdaq too, but they are still slightly in the green. Well, China took a bit of a hit, Hong Kong too. They're taking some small profits, anyway. There's a big ugly candle on the Euro Stoxx 600 on European tech too. Even gold corrected a bit. Gold, be careful, we're really on a tune that's been playing for so many years, for over 50 years in the markets, even 100 in some markets, it's FOMO. And like, gold explodes upwards, everyone will buy gold, or people will queue up on the street to buy gold to resell their gold, there's so much FOMO. At some point, the music will stop, clearly, it's always like that. Always, always like that. Okay? When you've been in the market for quite a few years, you know the tune. When you're new, you see gold explode, you say "No, gold will explode again." At some point, it stops, huh. It can't go up, up, up, up infinitely, beyond. We're not in Toy Story, you see. So at some point, when it turns around, it will sting. The more it went up strongly, the more it went up high violently and quickly, the more it will go down strongly, violently, and quickly. Huh, don't forget cryptos, strong, violent, quick bull runs, and the bear market, it falls strongly, violently, and quickly. And so gold risks experiencing the same thing. Silver, same, Barry continues to fall, it's not pretty. More and more recession. Uh, well, after that, it will make general inflation a bit, a bit perhaps decreasing, huh, since it's also backed by, of course, energy. Uh, regarding crypto stocks, Coinbase continues its descent. MicroStrategy, it's ugly, huh, it continues its descent. The miners took a nuclear hit yesterday, and it's starting today. Look at that red candle from yesterday. Wow! It's not very pretty. In the bond market too, there's a bit of selling, but well, it's still pushed quite a bit. The bond market has pushed quite a bit. That's making yields fall. That's good news. It's good news for risk markets to have falling yields in the bond market. It's very good news. And the dollar is a bit green today. So, in short, today there's a bit of selling in stocks, a bit of selling in value stocks which are metals, a bit of selling in the bond market, and people are returning to cash. There you go, that's the idea of what we have today.
Well, so cryptos, okay, we've corrected, not a good day. Can it correct for a few more days? Yes, no problem. It can correct for a few more days. I think there will be a good little bullish wave afterwards. A good little short squeeze to go and get all of that. But it might be for one last little wave. And yes, that's how it works, huh. It's not like I correct once and then I go again. People leave, they think everyone is going again, and I do one last bearish wave to really make people capitulate, to really put them in a bad state. And at that moment, then I'll go back to "to the moon" mode. That's how it works. It's when people are really on the ground, flattened, that the market will say, "Okay, it's time to go to the moon." There you go, as usual. So you have to hold on tight, be strong. Those who are all-in on Bitcoin like me, it's easy. Those who are all-in on altcoins with portfolios that are down -70-80%, it's clear, it's less easy. Well, unfortunately, that's how it is. I send you kisses and see you tomorrow. Bye bye. [Music]