Transcription
History in Hungary. Bye-bye nationalist PM Victor Orban after 16 years in power. And hello Mr. Peter Maga. The opposition leader supporters celebrated his landslide victory in Budapest. The election saw record voter turnout. But what does the result mean for Hungary, the rest of Europe, the US, and Ukraine? Kim Lane Skppler lived in Hungary and followed Orban's long tenure. She's a professor at Princeton University. Welcome back to DW, Kim. Did you expect such a resounding defeat?
>> Well, the polls actually said that we would have this kind of resounding uh victory, you know, for Peter Modar. But the problem with the Hungarian election system is that it's not a proportional representation system. So you can take the poles and you can run them through this system and you might have come out with a surprising result. The amazing thing here is that Peter Modar actually hit all the spots in the Orban rig system that allowed him to get the kind of victory that Orban used to get. After the last election, Orban said he Orban had a victory that could be seen from the moon. This time I think we have a victory that can be seen from Mars.
And where's this massive swing in opinion come from?
>> Well, a lot of the swing in opinion comes from Orban's own voters. You know, in the in past elections, the opposition has tended to win in the cities and and Orban has won in the countryside. this time when you look at the election maps and you see how it is that you know that Orban uh Orban's um district show up as orange on a map and Tissa meaning Moar's party shows up with blue it just the whole country is blue just all these districts that are rural districts districts that have gone for Orban in election after election switched over and voted for Peter Moyar and not even by close margins it's just a remarkable remarkable victory.
But But why do you think?
>> Why? Well, what happened? You know, Peter Majar kind of came first of all out of Orban's camp. So, he sits in the center right of the political spectrum, which is where the vast majority of Hungarian voters are. But the second thing, you know, Orban controls all of the media. Orban controls all the megaphones that get messages out to general publics. So for the last two years, Peter Mer has been going village to village to village, showing up in person and talking to voters. It's a small country which is easier to do that in in a really big country. But you know what he did was to make personal contacts with the voters around Orban's media system and ultimately that's the thing that gave him his landslide victory today.
>> Okay. Well, more on Mag in a moment. Let's have a listen to Oruban's concession speech late Sunday night.
>> The election results aren't final yet, but they are clear. For us, they are painful, but clear. We have not been given the responsibility and opportunity to govern. I have congratulated the winner.
Kim, you wrote a Journal of Democracy essay, How Victor Orban Wins. I guess you'll have to write a sequel to that, but in a nutshell, how did he manage to cling on so long?
>> Well, every time before, you know, he got came to power in 2010 in an election fair and square, the prior government had run the country into bankruptcy. He was basically the only candidate that was a responsible vote. But after that he rigged each election thereafter. Uh and he could rig the elections because again he he tilted the system in favor of the countryside vote. And so that's why it was so crucial that Peter Madrar went out there into Orban's core territory and won over that vote because otherwise he couldn't have possibly won certainly not with this kind of election victory. So Peter Madier was a close study of exactly how Orban won the prior elections and he duplicated the kind of strategy that brought Orban to power before. So in some sense, you know, there's this point in the Hungarian system where a simple majority. So Peter Mander got 54% of the vote. He's going to get 69% of the seats in the parliament. That's that tipping effect. And he had to kind of hit that point. So he got the benefit that Orban used to get. And that's why we're seeing this kind of huge victory.
>> But tell us what sort of system then Orban has left behind for this next guy.
>> Yeah. So Orban didn't just ring rigged the election rules, he's rigged the entire system. So the first two obstacles that Peter Modar is going to have to deal with are that there is a president um like the pres like the president in Germany who signs off on all the laws. That president is still a fed president. So he can be expected to be a veto on any new laws Peter Ma tries to pass. Victor Orban also packed to the entire constitutional court and any issue that doesn't get vetoed by the president may reasonably come before the constitutional court which will then also block Peter Modar. So he's going to have to find a way around those two obstacles. With a twothirds majority he can amend the constitution. He could even bring in a new constitution and he could rewrite the laws on the constitutional court and the presidency to get the current obstacles out of the way. Now, you know, that's going to be challenging because changing the laws is legal. Getting rid of current occupants is a little more challenging, but that's what Orban did to seize power and Peter Madar has a model he can follow.
>> Okay. Well, here's the victory speech from the opposition leader. Titsa and Hungary won this election.
>> Not by a little, but by a lot. Indeed, a lot. Together, we replaced the Orban regime. Together, we liberated Hungary. Together, we took back our homeland.
So you reckon that this guy could use Orban's playbook to his benefit to the benefit of Hungary as well? I mean is this man a liberator?
>> Yes. Well, that's how he's portrayed himself. So now he gets to we now we get to see it was very significant in listening to Peter Moder that he was referring to the Orban government not by the word government which is corban in Hungarian but he used the word which is a kind of order and you know ves which was what ves means like a system change that was the word that the opposition used in 1989 and 90 to get rid of communism and What Peter Modera is doing is using that same language to say we have to get rid of the Orban regime the way we got rid of communism. So that implies a huge change in the constitutional structure which needs to be done to restore democracy and you know Peter Mer was a little vague on exactly how he would do that but that's clearly the language he's using and so I think we can expect big constitutional changes to come.
>> Okay. So, do we know do we really know who this guy is? You say he's been vague on some policy positions. Um, I I guess to build broad support. What are the open questions then about what he actually does stand for?
>> Well, so so most people had not heard of Peter Modar until two years ago. He was kind of a cog in the machine of the Orban uh order, let's say. I was trying to use his language. Um, and so he kind of popped out of that uh system. Um, and he's been an anti-corruption campaigner. Um, he said all the right things in order to to document where the Orban government has crashed democracy, benefited itself, and impoverished the vast majority of Hungarians. So now he's going to have to come in and really do something quite significant. But who is he personally? Well, one of the things that brought him into government was weirdly a pedophil a pedophilia scandal. Okay. Not involving him but involving a state school in Hungary where the the principal of that school had permitted staff members to abuse the children under their care. There was this scandal when the Orban government pardoned the guy who ran that school. Okay. Now why am I saying this? Because the person who was held responsible for the pardon was the justice minister Udit Varga. And Udit Varga is the ex-wife of Peter Modar. And it was Orban blaming her and firing her that got Peter Modiard to break with the system and to say his opening line was how dare Orban hide behind women's skirts because he knew the order for the pardon had really come from Orban. So there's a whole kind of drama going on behind the scenes here with all these personnel. Um but uh but anyway, so Peter Mor has run a very disciplined campaign. Um he's been on message. He's gone to the countryside like I keep saying because that's so surprising for the opposition and so far he's done really well. So we don't know a lot about him personally. Um he is someone who has not taken up a lot of progressive positions. He's probably going to follow through with a lot of the policies that Orban has enacted. He will be far more pro-EU. Um he will probably get Orban's, you know, the Orban veto out of the way on Ukraine. But I doubt that he'll be an enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine because frankly Orban has whipped up Hungarian sentiment against Ukraine. So, you know, I think he'll probably be a relief to the European Union. I think he probably will try to restore democratic institutions, but he's not any by any means a kind of progressive or left candidate. In many ways, he will continue the domestic and European politics that Orban has championed.
But Kim, that all said, will he be working against the system? I mean, you said it. Orin still controls enormous media infrastructure, a loyal party machine, deep pockets, courts under control, the the Constitution rewritten. Sure, that's something that can be reversed, but how difficult will all of that be?
>> Yeah. So, it'll be very difficult and it'll matter a lot what he takes up first because you can imagine that the Orban people in this so-called deep state are going to be fighting him tooth and nail. So I hope I mean he has the constitutional majority as we call it. He can amend the constitution on day one. He can change a lot of the laws that Orban has put in place to hold his whole corrupt regime you know in power. Um so I I think you know Peter Moder is a lawyer. A lot of the people in his inner circle are lawyers. I think they've been studying the system. They know it very well. And so I think he will have a plan for fixing a lot of this. What he does say he'll do on day one is to join the European public prosecutor's office because a big chunk of what's wrong with Hungary is that Orban has you Orban is portrayed as kind of being in the far right. Orban is actually a kleptocrat first and foremost. This whole thing has about been enriching himself and his close allies. And the problem is the public prosecutor's office in Hungary, which could be used to go after all that corruption, will not do it because it's packed with Orban supporters.
So by joining the European public prosecutor's office, Peter Maduro is going to signal that they really want to root out a lot of the corruption that has come from the misuse of EU funds. And that will be at least a very good first start. And I guess there are a lot more EU funds on their way if he manages to do that. Uh but when it comes to foreign affairs, will he have the US as a partner?
>> Yes. Well, so as you know, uh Mr. Trump, our president, went allin. He actually tweeted the night before the election that he would bail out Hungary financially if Orban were elected. JD Vance was there last week. Marco Rubio was there after the Munich Security Conference. It's very clear who Trump thinks is his ally. Okay. Now, the good news is that Orban no longer controls the state. The bad news is that Orban has set up with a lot of state money a whole network of organizations that supports the far right in Europe and that has schooled a lot of the people who now run the Trump administration. that whole network. It's run by a big group called the Matias Corvas Coleian which is part boot camp, part college, part think tank um and part propaganda outfit. They control money that actually no longer depends on the state budget. So that organization is going to keep going even if Orban is out of power. and that actually manages a whole network of think tanks of boot camps and of you know of things that have actually supported the far right across Europe. That funding is actually secure even if Orban loses the state. So don't expect the far-right support coming from Hungarian precincts to evaporate anytime soon.
Orban actually, you know, sort of idiot proof that so to speak against any future government coming in with a different set of ideas. So there's an expression in Hungary, I keep resorting because the Hungarian is so expressive here. There's an expression in Hungarian where you call someone like this ank which means a golden spider who sits at the center of a web and just traps everything in his orbit. And Orban still has that kind of control over the European far right. Surely though with JD Vance there um coming all the way from the states to meddal some would say in the election >> and obviously put his money on the wrong horse. I mean that's got to be embarrassing. Surely that would complicate the relationship with the US going forward, wouldn't it?
>> Yeah, you'd think so. But you know, and in fact it looked like the polls um for Orban dropped by three points after Vance was there. So it looked like it didn't actually help him. Um but you know so I mean B JD Vance is not known for charisma and he certainly didn't show a lot of charisma during his visit but yes it's embarrassing but this is why Trump did not come himself, you know, if Orban was going to win Trump would want some piece of that right but this was a way of saying that the US has your back we'll send you our least charismatic spokesperson to wrap up your campaign and there we there we have it JD Vance losing an election.
>> Now you touched on Ukraine earlier. Can the Ukrainians expect a different t um some sort of aid? Um can the Russians expect uh sanctions sometime soon?
>> Yeah. So, one of the things we've now learned because there have been so many tapes released in the last several weeks um of Orban talking to Putin, of the foreign minister talking to Mr. Lavough, the foreign minister of Russia. We now know that Hungary has been Russia's obedient servant gumming up the works inside the EU and one can expect although we don't have all the smoking gun evidence yet that Hungary was handily rewarded for that in all kinds of ways. Right? So Peter Modar has said that he will drop these connections with the Russians that he will no longer use the Russian veto essentially that Orban was exercising inside the EU. So that will change a lot. Um, but in exchange, because I think the Russian government has been holding up part of Orban's regime, at least fiscally, at least as much as it could, Peter Madera needs to get the EU money back to be able to break free of the Russian influence. And I think that's what he's telling the EU. You need to give us the money. We will go, we will go through with our anti-corruption measures, but we need your help now to get rid of this Russian support. So that's Russia. Now on Ukraine, I don't
>> Russ Russian oil and gas. While we're on topic.
>> Yeah, exactly. So Russ So Hungary is no longer getting Russian oil because I think it was the Russians that blew up the Drewgeba pipeline that brings the oil from Russia to Hungary. So Hungary is now rather short on Russian oil. And there was this false flag attempt to blow up the pipeline that brought Russian gas from Russia through Serbia to Hungary. So Hungary has all these carveouts from the EU to still get its energy supply from Russia. I think that Peter and Bondier would be much more open to some of the alternatives that the EU has floated using a pipeline through Croatia, for example. And you know, there are other things that the EU has said to try to wean Hungary off Russian oil and gas. But it's going to be a while before that could happen because the infrastructure isn't quite there yet. I do think however that Peter Mira will try and will try to give up a lot of Russian um influence in Hungary which comes in part through the provision of Russian energy. Um Orban used as a campaign slogan that that that Hungary has the cheapest prices for oil and gas in the EU. And actually that's not even true. The deals that Orban struck with Putin right before the election in 2022 um are actually not bargain basement rates anymore. So there are all kinds of reasons why Hungary could switch over to um other kinds of energy resources and I think that's what they need to do. Um Hungary has been doing that a bit and this is the other influence we haven't really talked about. Um the urban government was very close to China and had adopted for example Huawei 5G technology, had adopted Chinese facial recognition technology and was building Chinese battery factories like crazy. Including battery factories that have now polluted a lot of you know groundwater and other things in Hungary. So this is another kind of influence that Hungary is going to have to that the Major government's going to have to cope with. and he's taken a stand against the battery factories. But then the question is where does the energy come from? Can or can you know Hungary tolerate the switch to electric vehicles which is you know this is the German connection because Hungary has been the producer of German cars that are not yet EVs you know so all of that's going to have to evolve as you know Peter Modar copes with handling the constitutional crisis he's also going to have to remake the economy actually big job ahead it's like 1989 all over again.
>> Kim what about the Ukrainians you're going to say something else on that.
>> Oh, right. And the Ukrainians. Yeah. So, here's the problem. There is a big ethnic Hungarian minority in Ukraine. And that minority um feels agrieved um because Ukraine um you know, not be not under Zilinsky but before Zalinsky abolished the bilingual schools that had operated in that area and passed language laws that put the Hungarian language at a disadvantage. Orban whipped up all kinds of anti-Ukrainian anger right in Hungary over this sense that the Hungarian minority was being maltreated and Peter Modar really can't go against that actually until the rights of the Ukrainian minority in Transc Carpathia are restored. Zilinski has actually done something to to go down that road. Um but again it's it's right now a very tough relationship between Ukraine and Hungary and you know Peter Mandar is going to have to probably not um agree to EU further steps toward accession unless Hungary is not part of the financial part of that mix. But Hungary already has a carveout. This is going to be a long slow process to inter to you know um get Ukraine to follow all the rules it has to follow before EU accession is imminent. So I think Madura will not veto anything. I think he will not be the most enthusiastic supporter and if Hungarian money is on the line he might ex insist still on an exemption. Mhm.
Now, you mentioned the election won't change the financial position of the right in Hungary, but what's Orbin's defeat mean for farright movements elsewhere?
>> Yeah. So, the far right has been supported through this network that Orban controls that I mentioned earlier, this Matias Corvous and all of its um little uh branch offices, shall we say, all over the place. My guess is that that support will continue because Orban, if he isn't going to be able to wield power in Hungary, is going to turn to wielding power in the EU and he's not going to be able to do it through sitting in the European Council, but he will be able to do it through leading the third largest party in the European Parliament. And so I suspect that the Patriots for Europe party, which Orban cobbled together, out of all the parties that he supported with his, you know, his MCC money, that that party will now become where Orban tries to influence the EU and also make his way back into uh domestic politics. You may recall this is how Nigel Faraj's party waited out the storm and Marine Le Pen's party. They got a lot of their energy and a lot of their ability to hold their party together by working from the EU parliament back out to their national governments.
>> And it doesn't sound like it's game over at all uh for Orban despite a landslide >> defeat.
>> Right. Remember Orban is only 62. I mean he looks older and he's not healthy but he's he considers himself a young man and right in fact the fetus party the the name of it the fi in fetus stand and uh stands for the word for youth in Hungarian and they tried to change their names after they outgrew their party name but then they couldn't you know so they still think of themselves as the young guys who run Hungary and um there's a lot of lot more political life left in Orban he's a fighter and we have not heard the end of.
Very interesting analysis from Kim Lane Skeepler, Princeton University. Thanks so much for your time and great chatting to you tonight.
>> Great chatting to you. Glad GW is on the cage.
>> We sure are. Thank you, Kim. I'm Ben Ful and thank you very much for your time. We leave you with some pictures of the historic night in Hungary.