Transcription
Hello, good day everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about the weekly close on BTC. We will also talk about the short to medium term. What can we do in this bear trend? I will also recall the long-term levels that I am monitoring myself to position myself. We will of course look at Ether. Then, the altcoins that you asked to analyze. I have noted three as usual. We will look at Virtual, ADA, and Bonk. And I will finish with a question that was asked to me about the Fear and Greed index. How to use it well? Uh, how does it happen in a bear market? Are there still bounces? So, how to use this indicator globally? So I will talk to you about it. Uh, it's an indicator that I talk about quite rarely, that I do look at from time to time, but which is still quite well-known globally in crypto. In any case, I see it often on social media.
Let's start here with BTC. We have a weekly close that is ugly, let's not hide it, let's not start saying "Yes, but if not, the weekly close, it's ugly." You've had for a while, since this sideways phase, the plan has always been the same whether we are here, here, or here. I have always told you, I have two levels that I am monitoring. The level of $106,000 to really preserve the medium-term trend and $90,000 to preserve the long-term trend. Both have been broken, it's confirmed. We have broken these two levels with a strong weekly close, okay? No buying reaction. We have a low close. It's not like we had, I don't know, this type of wick for example at this level, at this level or even this kind of wick that shows us that we are pushing but we have buyers showing up. Not here, total control by sellers. So here, I would say, I have a confirmation on several points, whether it's seasonality. We saw it together, I can quickly show it to you again, BTC cycle here, that if we base ourselves on seasonality, then we could predict a market top around October, September, October 2025, which was predicted based on previous cycles. Okay? That's a first point. We then had, above all, the technical context, because seasonality is good, cyclicity is good, but I need technical confirmation. And well, when I saw that we were going below this level, I told myself, potentially, this is the beginning of a bear market.
Now, be careful, be careful because often when people cry bear market, people start to imagine that it's over, we close below $98,000, it will collapse by 50%. No, not necessarily. A bear market is a downward trend. In fact, a bear market is not necessarily a brutal dump because if we take brutal dumps, we've had them, we've had them in percentage. If I take the Covid crash - 30%. If I take this dump of May 2021 - 50%. Is that why we entered a bear market? No. What is a bear market? It's lower lows and lower highs over the long term. That's a bear market, not a big red candle. A bear market is simply a downward dynamic that we will have for weeks or even months. Historically, between the highest point and the lowest point of a bear market, we have 1 year. There, it's about 1 year. We see it well here. November 2021, the top. The bottom is made, well, 1 year later. November 2022. Here, it's about the same. If I take the top of December 2017 and here, the bottom is made in December 2018. So, we have to start from this principle. If we enter a bear market similar to the previous cycle, we can expect a lower point to be found around November 2026, approximately.
Now, this bear market can be different. Here, nothing, there is nothing that proves the contrary. So, it's 100% certain that the bottom will be found in this zone. For my part, as I told you, for the moment, in the long term, I have a lot of cash set aside and I am waiting for a more significant pullback on BTC. $93,000, we are there. Okay. It's an intermediate level that we noted together, but it's a level that I consider still too high, much too high to really have a professional entry on BTC. If I compare with the previous cycle, this level of $93,000 is a bit like this level of $47,000. You see, we had a significant retracement, - 30% approximately, like we have here. You see, hop, minus - 30% - 25% close to 0.382. It was an interesting level to potentially look for longs, but only if we had a buying reaction, which we didn't have. And then you see, if we enter too early, we can take a - 60%. That's why I think we are at a level that is too high. If I get a buying reaction, a pattern, something that shows me that buyers are defending this level, why not enter a position with an invalidation. I will especially watch how the market forms a bottom. But me, I'm waiting for much lower levels. Okay? Really the ideal zone. If here, I have to tell myself BTC forms a bottom and that's where I'll invest a large part of my capital, it's globally in this zone.
Yes, the zone may seem quite large. Okay, but it becomes interesting again around $73,000. We will be globally around the 0.5 retracement here. FIB alt 0.5, $70,000, it becomes interesting again. And then the golden zone for those who can keep cash in case we go that low, it's this zone between $45,000. We have a very good localization zone at this level where, in my opinion, according to my analysis, my interpretation, I can be wrong, okay, but I have trouble seeing a BTC go below $40,000. There can be a wick, there can be something that happens here, but for me, the bottom, if we have to form a bottom and we base ourselves on cyclicity, what we have already done before, whether it's the production cost of BTC, the reloading zone, the percentage drop between the highest point and the bottom, it's in this zone that it should happen. Likewise, be careful, I'm not saying you should only have cash for this zone. No, we adapt based on what we see. If we have a dump here and there, we form a large structure, well, it's possible that it's a large bottom that will be formed, okay? And it could be the bottom here and we won't go any lower. It reminds me of all those who, after the FTX crash, were waiting for $12,000 because we had a confluence of levels, and it's true that it's a very interesting level, we didn't reach it. Well, don't be blinded to say "Yes, the market will never go there. No, it's not possible. If we form a bottom, you have to enter with the mindset of saying, well, the bottom is in, I'm entering a position." But don't start saying "Yes, I refuse to see the truth. I've decided that $12,000 is the level it absolutely must reach. And well, it's impossible that it leaves without me. That it leaves without re-tagging $12,000. No, if, as I said, we form a bottom here, and even if I'm convinced that we can go there, well, I'll still enter a position here. In any case, we've been talking about it for a while, having cash set aside. I hope the work has been done because what's complicated is that if you haven't taken your profits, if you haven't recovered cash, then starting to take profits after a - 25% if we continue to go lower - 30% or - 40%. Here, it's panic selling and selling at a bottom. I cannot reduce my exposure, I cannot sell BTC at $70,000 where I could potentially buy it back. That's why, be careful, that's why when you take profits, you take profits on the way up because we are going back to interesting levels, ATHs, Fibonacci extensions as we saw, $100,000, $120,000, and then you can reduce your exposure again when you have signals that are not, that are not great.
Well, in any case, here when I look at the shorter term, I put moving averages. Very good. I have the 15-minute below the 1-hour below the 4-hour. And here, we are in a good context for trend continuation. The proof again today with a 15-minute acting as resistance and we are rejected. And for those who say "Yes, in a bear market, there's nothing to do, we'll look for it." It depends. Are you a long-term investor? Yes, do something else. You will have to be patient. Educate yourself, inform yourself, document yourself. Okay? Uh, the goal is not just to wait for a year to look for a lower level and enter. No, you can work on yourself, on your strategy. You can be interested in other assets, in finance, in economics. There is still work to be done. But it's more about learning than concrete actions that will give you a return on investment from a monetary point of view. On the other hand, for traders, I said it, 2022 from an investment point of view, yes, my portfolio has suffered a drawdown automatically being in a bear market. On the other hand, from a trading point of view, I had an excellent year. I had a good year because I had a good trend with good flow. And here we are starting again in a downward trend. And what I want is when I trade the trend, I just don't want us to enter a range. In a range, I get bored because I trade the trend much more. Here, when I have moving averages pointing downwards and this kind of pattern. Yes, it's magnificent. We go back to the 15-minute, we have a daily pivot point above. Here, there's a good short to take. Here, we go back to the 15-minute, we form an MTP, likewise, there's a good short to take. And this is a very good context that I like for trading effectively. You put moving averages, 15-minute tunnel, 1-hour tunnel, 4-hour tunnel. Okay? And you look for confluences with daily pivot points, weekly pivot points to simply look for shorts. Here the trend is down, we are looking for shorts. Of course, it's not that simple, you need good risk management, good psychology, you need to have confidence in your setup. It's not by putting moving averages that you will become the best trader. No, of course not. But nothing prevents you from perfecting yourself in this kind of market context, and that's how you can learn to trade. And all of this, I teach in the "Become a Trader" program. There are trend setups that I teach in module number 11. I teach you how to trade the setup I just mentioned, and much more. Okay? You would be clearly autonomous.
H, we have new weekly FIB points that have been created on BTC, $98,200 inside the 1-hour tunnel. That is to say that if in the coming hours, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, we lose the 15-minute, or rather regain the 15-minute, we have a good impulse, which is also possible. We still have quite a bit of liquidity to seek above 96. It wouldn't surprise me to see this kind of movement. See, maybe not as strong, but something like this, it wouldn't surprise me. Because we've left quite a few highs here, quite a bit of liquidity to seek. A small short squeeze to get out some shorts, to go back and seek this zone, we have a good confluence. Monthly pivot point $98,600, weekly pivot point $98,200, and the 1-hour tunnel, we have a good confluence zone here. So if we go there, I see a selling reaction, I can very well take a short. Now, we need to see where my selling reaction is, whether it will be here, or lower, I don't know. But take this kind of short to have a continuation of our trend. Of course, we will need to see how the structure forms. I can't say I'll take exactly this trade, but globally, if you're looking to trade the trend, this is exactly what you want with an invalidation because there's always a probability that we'll continue north if buyers are pushing, and the goal is not to hold a position if we start to reach much higher levels. And we have a Fibonacci point around $103,535 and a low here around $89,000. So, on this side for BTC, be careful again. Beware of those who say "Yes, it's the bottom, yes, it's still the bottom." No, in a bear market, it can take time to find a bottom. Don't be in a hurry. I know that globally, people are increasingly impatient. Always wanting dopamine. Well, social media doesn't help with that. In crypto, it's even worse because everything is fast, performance is fast, cycles are faster than stocks. So generally, people want a bottom right now. I'm sorry, but when we make a top and a year later, we have a bottom, it's a fast cycle, and especially since we make an ATH, we are in 2021, we make an ATH 3 years later, that's correct. If we take the S&P 500, we take it at this level, we make a top in the 2000s. Okay? Then with the crash, the dot-com bubble, we find here, we make almost a new ATH, but globally we don't make a new high. Well, technically, we make a real ATH a bit later, it's not the same. So be careful not to want everything too quickly in crypto and to remain humble in this type of market. Already, there are plenty of opportunities, there is good volatility. So, we won't complain given the performance achieved in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Well, I don't have much more to say about BTC. We are continuing the trend, we are watching for setups, and for the moment, no bottom has been formed.
I will now focus on Ether. Ether is quite simple. We are going back to this $3,000 level, which acts as support. You see, we have wicks close to $3,000. A psychological number, it's a level that will be defended. That's how it is, like $4,000, like $2,000. It's always a level that is defended globally. In any case, we see the extremes of our range. The upper extreme is the $4,000 level. The middle of the range is $3,000. The lower extreme is $2,200. So, we are not far from $2,000. So for the moment, yes, we are in a good zone. Now, on Ether, likewise, no bottom is drawn. If I put moving averages, it's similar. We have a 15-minute below the 1-hour, a 1-hour below the 4-hour. We are inside the 3-day tunnel. So, we are still in a good localization zone. But until I get a buying reaction, until I get a bottom forming here, something that shows me that buyers are showing up, that demand is greater than supply, we move back above the moving averages, well, I cannot expose myself. I could expose myself more aggressively if we go back to lower levels, for example, $2,200. But for the moment, here at $3,000, I cannot expose myself because, as I say, we are at a level that I consider a bit too high for Ether, not as much as BTC where it is, we have corrected quite a bit, but well, for the moment, we must not forget that Ether has not really experienced a bull market, that's a fact. Since we made a new ATH, we haven't gone into price discovery like Ether could do in every cycle. So, is it perhaps the end of a long-term cycle for Ether that is ending with a hype that is reducing for Ethereum? It's possible, but it's not impossible. There can be rotations in crypto. I don't think there will be a rotation to BTC. Ethereum, I have trouble believing it, but if the market shows me the opposite and that Ether is no longer the second largest crypto, then we will have to adapt accordingly. The goal is simply to change our bias according to what the market gives us.
Well, for the moment, the entirety of crypto is correcting. We are still quite far from a market capitalization point of view. Well, USDT, I don't take it into account, it's a stablecoin, but well, XRP is still quite far from total market cap, but who knows in the future and is being outperformed by another crypto. So, Ether is the same. We have new weekly pivot points that have been created. We have a chart that remains bearish, a little less than BTC lately because we are entering a range, we see that we are not rejected in the 15-minute tunnel, but we don't have a strong buying reaction for the moment. We have a very good zone here if we go there, likewise in the coming hours to watch, between $3,250 and $3,300. Very good confluence zone. Why? Because we have a weekly pivot point, a monthly pivot point, the 1-hour tunnel, and here a large liquidity zone to seek. You see, there are quite a few highs to seek. I remind you, above these highs, we have stop losses. Okay? For example, shorts that have entered positions that put a stop loss above these levels, well, a short seller who puts a stop loss above this level. If their stop loss is triggered, it's a position buyback. They close their position and it's a buy market. Okay? And automatically, we need to watch if we have a buy market like this, is there a short squeeze? If yes, there is no point in positioning yourself as a short seller because we will have strong momentum and no selling counterparty to block the price. On the other hand, if there is no short squeeze and we see a wick, meaning that a lot of positions have been triggered, a lot of aggressive buys, buy markets, and on the other side, we have sell markets, limit sells, sorry, that have absorbed these buy markets. And here, we have a good signal that tells us that sellers are showing up. So, this is something to watch if we go there. So, yes, this pivot point that has been created, since we are in a new week, $3,350, the next, well, resistance one. This is the main weekly pivot point. Here, we have resistance 1, $3,500, a confluence with a psychological level. And then, we have here the level of approximately $2,850.
So, on this side for Ether, I'm answering the question about the Fear and Greed index. So, it's a well-known indicator that analyzes emotions, market sentiment, which allows us to know if we are in euphoria, fear, extreme fear, neutral, etc. We see that we have an indicator that is bounded between 0 and 100. So, when we are close to 100, it's in mode, yes, people are very euphoric, it's to the moon, it's hyper bullish, etc. etc. Extreme greed, as they say. And when we are close to zero, we are in extreme fear. Okay? How is it calculated? We take volatility, momentum, social media, dominance, trend, etc. etc. and surveys, all that. Well, I don't have too many details on how it's calculated. In any case, I use it from time to time but quite rarely. There are two things to watch on the Fear and Greed index. The first, I like to use it in a bull market. Why? Because in a bull market, when we have quite low peaks, it often indicates bottoms because reaching phases of greed, well, of extreme greed in a bull market, it generally indicates that we are at a bottom. Which is not the same as being in extreme fear in a bear market because in a bull market, an upward trend, being in extreme greed means we are at a low. For example, if I take the lowest point, it's August 4th, August 7th, sorry, August 7th, here, it's February 28th. You see, if we look at our chart, I take BTC. Hop, I said August 5th. So August 5th, it's here. Hop, August 5th. You see, big dip and extreme fear, bottom. Then, I said February 7th. February 7th, I have the 25th, the 25th or 28th approximately. So it's this zone here, you see? Hop! This zone here, we dump. Well, likewise, it's a good zone to position yourself. So, in a bull market, it's very interesting to use it. Why? Because it often indicates to us when there is great fear and we are potentially marking a dip. Because in an upward trend, in a bull market, we assume that dips will be bought. So the goal is to say, "Okay, at what point is there great fear in the markets?" And that's where we can position ourselves.
When we are in a bear market, it's different because a bear market is lower lows and we can stay in extreme fear for a long time. We see it here, we enter extreme fear in May and only come out in July. So we stayed for 2-3 months. Is that why the bottom was formed? Not necessarily. Mid, June, July 2022, it's May, June, July 2022, it's here. Yes, we are low. But was the bottom formed? Because afterwards, we made a new low with the FTX crash. And when I look at the market top, it's formed here around November 2021, the bottom is formed here after the FTX crash in this zone, January 2023, and we see that we were in fear, extreme fear, neutral for a long time. Okay, lower lows and lower highs in price action. So be careful, when you are in an upward trend, I like to use this indicator because it allows us to see that we really have panic phases on dips. On the other hand, when you are in a bear market, don't start saying "Oh, we are in extreme fear." That's it, it's definitely the bottom. It can be a temporary bottom. For example, here we can be in extreme fear, here we can be in extreme fear, here we can be in extreme fear. There can be bounces to play, but to start saying it's the long-term bottom. No, this indicator won't give you that. There will never be an indicator that will give you that. So, yes, it can, here's how to use it globally, but I prefer to combine it with something else. I cannot make decisions solely with this type of indicator.
US market, US market still at high levels. No market top has been drawn yet. Okay, sideways phase, blocked between two boundaries. That doesn't change. The resolution of this range will be very important, especially for cryptos as well, because if cryptos already have significant technical degradation and other things as well. If, in addition, on the US market, we have a top structure here and the US market sends us a signal that there is an inversion of our dynamic, that we go below the moving averages, below the 4-hour, below the 1-hour, it would not be good for cryptos. We would have further confirmation that risk-on assets are bearish, the US market is bearish. It's not something that is bullish for cryptos because we have a correlation quite often between cryptos and the US market, even if it's not really the case at the moment. So, this is to be monitored, whether it's SP500 or Nasdaq. If we start to validate a top structure and lose the short to medium-term moving averages, it would not be encouraging for cryptos.
So, the altcoins you asked me to analyze, I have Virtual. Where are we? So, I remind you, if we really enter a big bear market, be careful with altcoins, you've seen it clearly. In any case, many altcoins did not recover during the last bull market. Altcoins that did not make new ATHs. And likewise, tell yourself that altcoins that made an ATH in 2024-2025, for example, like, not all cryptos will make one again if we have a new ATH. This is something to consider. So, scenarios like "Wow, I have an ATH at $5, I'm at $0.50 here, I can make x10 if I enter a position." No, that's not the right mindset to adopt. If you do that, you will enter a position, you will never take profits because you will have targets that are too high, and you might make a x2, x3, which is a good performance, but you will just not take your profits because you are convinced that this altcoin will go back to zero. This is really a mindset to avoid. Now, on Virtual, we are globally in a range. We are blocked between two boundaries. We have found a good demand zone here around $0.50. We have retested this low. I think I'm talking about it here. I think I was talking about it. I made a video, I said we are in an imbalance zone, we are retesting this low. It's a zone where buyers can potentially show up. And well, if the buyers who made a V-bottom here want to turn this structure into a W, it's here that they must, of course, show up. Now, we need to monitor BTC because, well, if BTC falls, there's a high chance that Virtual will also fall. And in any case, where we are, we are not in a good zone to position ourselves. Either we look for shorts at the upper extreme, globally in this zone, approximately. Okay? Or we look for longs at the lower extreme, globally approximately this zone, but never position yourself in the middle of the range. It's the worst place. Here, I can put a poke. See what happens. No, I can't. I'm on crypto. I need another data provider for Virtual. I have enough charts here. I just wish I had this part. I'll go to Mexi, Kraken. No, I don't like that either. Okay, it's too expensive. Yes, I'll go to Zerx. Okay, they have all the charts anyway. So, okay, I have a high value that is not bad in a good zone. The low value, I find it a bit too high. For me, it would make more sense around 70 cents. Well, it's there. If it's there, it's because there were volumes that were well exchanged. I can't change that. It's not the indicator that's wrong, but we don't have a good zone. Here, it's a bit too high to trade the range because the problem is, if you look for longs at this level, you have an invalidation that is much too low because the invalidation in a range is the lower extreme. It's the question of the lower extreme. So, you see, if I'm here, I have a risk/reward of 1.6 for 1. If I look for longs at the level of the high value, it's not a very good risk. If I have an entry a bit lower, I can have 2 for 1, 3 for 1, it's already much more interesting. So, on this side for Virtual, in any case, we are in a range for the moment, it's just range trading.
Then, analysis of ADA. ADA, you see, it's a perfect example of a crypto that totally exploded in 2020-2021 and did not make new ATHs in 2024-2025. And there are many cryptos that will be in this configuration. And ADA, we will really have to watch if we have a bear market and we enter a downward trend for 1 year, how ADA reacts. If, for me, my scenario for altcoins is very simple. I take ADA, I put it like this. Okay? If BTC retraces, retraces strongly, goes back to, for example, $60,000. If ADA tanks rather well, manages to hold on and doesn't specifically lose this big bottom that was formed, there might be hope in the next cycle to re-tag higher levels and perhaps make a new ATH. It's possible. Okay? It's a possibility if we don't start breaking very big structures. If, on the other hand, we start to make a lower low and settle below this level, for me, it's an altcoin that will never make a new ATH in its life. Because here, we are breaking this big structure downwards. We have a lot of buyers who will be stuck in this zone that we will retest, it will be very quickly sold off, and then there are those who own it. I know it's not pleasant every time I talk about it, but it's my example for me. You see this? A crypto that made an ATH in 2017, did not make an ATH in 2021 but still pumped well, a bit like ADA, you see, and ADA broke its big structure and then never gave anything back after 2023-2025, and it's an altcoin that will do nothing more. It's dead. There's no more interest in it. I'm not saying all altcoins will look like this, but altcoins that break very, very big, very, very big structures can look like this. So, for the moment, I would be in patience mode, patience, because here we are starting to lose a small zone. This zone here, hop, we are starting to settle below it, which is not great, and yes, I would wait for a bigger bottom to be formed, a more bullish one, because here I put moving averages, likewise, on ADA, it's ugly. In any case, most altcoins are ugly. We are in a phase where either you trade effectively short-term, medium-term, intraday, swing, scalping. Okay? Or in the long term, you wait.
Last crypto. Bonk, where are we on Bonk? I haven't analyzed it in a long time. Ah, Bonk, we are going back to a very good zone. Hop. Bonk is a range blocked between two levels. If you have to take a long, it's in this zone because after that, there will be no other zones. If we start to settle below, we will have a large distribution pattern formed here. There is no way I can take a long if we close, if we close below this level and we have a candle that breaks this level downwards. So, here we are in a very good zone. Why? Because historically, every time we have come back to this zone, demand has been greater than supply. We see a W structure within a larger structure here. If W structure within a larger structure as well. Here, we have returned, we have re-formed a bottom here. Now, for the moment, we don't seem to be forming a bottom. We have moving averages pointing downwards. We will have to wait for us to start to have a first impulse, retrace, form a larger one. Then it can be good. See, here, we have a first impulse, we retest the 4-hour, we are rejected, we make a higher low than the previous one, we break the 4-hour, we retest it as support, and then it takes off. Well, here, it would be the same thing. And if we have that, well, it's very simple, it's to enter when we have our buying reaction, an invalidation below the low, and as targets, the middle of the range and the top of the range. Here, the trade on Bonk is very simple. Now, we have to take into account that if BTC falls, if we have a dump of BTC, well, these are altcoins that can potentially break this level. And remember, it's not because it's an altcoin that such a person talked about it, that your friend did not, it's an altcoin that is 75th in market cap. If tomorrow it goes to 3rd, if tomorrow it disappears, it won't change anything. Sometimes people say "No, it's impossible that it goes that low." No. Yes. Someone tells me "It's impossible that BTC goes to zero, that BTC disappears." I can believe that because, well, it has proven itself. Institutions have entered. There is real value. There is, well, there is real intrinsic value for me in BTC. On the other hand, someone tells me "Yes, a project like Bonk or even like ADA Cardano will disappear." It's impossible. Yes, it's possible, we saw it with Terra Luna, we saw it with other projects. So, be careful not to get too emotionally attached to your cryptos.
I'll leave you with this, I'm done. Feel free to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description to join the private group and discuss with very competent members. I am also present there and can answer questions if you need them. I wish you a very good evening. I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.