Transcription
My name is [music] Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques [music] that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my trading game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. Now, as always, we're going to focus on the charts and the data. No hype, no BS.
What we're going to look at first is where the markets are because this weekend was wild. Last Friday was wild. We saw silver and gold collapsing. Silver and gold, believe it or not, gold got as low as 4,400 overnight here last night. Um, silver got down sharply as well. Both have recovered off the lows, but the carnage, we'll watch and look at the charts. Is it over? Is the buying opportunity here at last?
In addition, over the weekend, Bitcoin started to cascade lower, getting below 75,000 before recovering a little bit today. Now, my biggest concern here is that if you follow the trend, what we're seeing is risk assets, silver, for instance, the parabolic move in silver unwinding, Bitcoin continuing lower. The question is, do the charts tell us that the stock market is next on the list?
Let's get into the markets here today, folks, and take a look at the S&P futures. And as we do, what we see is the markets overnight were down sharply. In fact, if you look at the distance of the drop, right? If we look at where the S&P closed on Friday to where the futures were overnight, we were down 1.4%. Now, we have recovered and we're only going to open down fractionally on the day. So, not a big drop here. Uh, but it was nasty overnight. By the way, the S&P drop overnight was coexisting with what we saw in Bitcoin where it fell below 75,000. And then also where silver and gold traded sharply lower.
Now, we'll look at those charts in a second, but first, let's go to the S&P 500 because this is really what I'm co most concerned about. Right? You talk about silver, yes, huge drop. You talk about Bitcoin, big drop. But if the stock market starts to have these type of moves, it's going to send shutters through the economy. Right now, I think we can all agree that the silver drop, you know, again, it takes away about two weeks of gains, maybe three weeks. Um, Bitcoin, it's not really affecting the US economy, but if the stock market has a 10% correction, you better believe it's going to affect the US economy.
So, looking right here, what do we have? We have a warning sign on the S&P 500. Why? Well, because you can see the low here from April and then we have the bigger parallel that's been going on since COVID and the low, so five years ago. We've now broken below on the daily chart. We've retraced to the scene of the crime and we've started to drop. Now, you could get a small bounce, but if you looked at a hundred of these setups, about 70 of them have big moves to the downside. And so, again, it doesn't guarantee anything. Nothing in technical analysis is guaranteed, but probabilitywise, it strongly favors the downside on the S&P.
Now, what would change my mind? Very simple. anything. If the S&P could confirm above this level, both the white trend line and the yellow trend line, all of a sudden we'd be in price discovery mode and in breakout mode. Until then, whatever we do here, ultimately the path of least resistance is to the downside.
Same thing, by the way, on the NASDAQ, we have a very similar trend line from the lows of April 2025. We hit it once, twice, three, four, five, broke down, retraced to the scene of the crime, and now again are being pushed lower.
Now, this week's a big week. Let's do a quick pause here before we get into other charts. So, we have Amazon and Alphabet reporting later this week, and we have the jobs data. So, there's these big economic data and big earnings data. Again, if they're perfect all the way around, maybe that's the one chance the bulls have at push pushing this market up above these key levels. But again, any sort of weakness and listen, let's we've even seen good earnings and the markets have still sold the stocks, right? So, we have to be aware that it really needs to be the best of the best to get this market to shake off the bearish technical setup that is favoring the downside here to get back into bull mode.
All right, the dollar. We saw that big bounce last week. If we talked about this, we had the big drop on the dollar and then Kevin Worsh was announced as the nominee to be the new Fed Federal Reserve chairman and obviously the dollar bounced and we're seeing a continued bounce today. Now, if you look at this, the first thing I do is I say, okay, so big move down into the bigger support zone right down here, right? So again, this support zone goes back to 2008, the financial crisis. Okay, that's to be expected. Again, when you fall this much, you're going to get a bounce.
Now, what I I like to do is I do a Fibonacci retrace. And I say, okay, we're nearing the 50% fib. Now, in terms of bearishness, anything between the 50 and the 618, I still favor that it's going to roll over to the downside. So, we're getting into that zone of resistance where the big test for the US dollar will be. Let's watch and see what happens this week, especially with the jobs data.
The 10-year yield. We've seen and I've talked about with you guys how we had the bull pattern, we broke out, we retraced, and now we're we should be headed higher. Again, this is essentially an inverse pattern to what the S&P has where the S&P broke its key support. We flip back to that. Here was your key support break and your retrace and now we should head down on the 10-year yield. We broke out, retraced, and now we should be headed higher. And again, these when I say should, we all should understand that that means probabilitywise, right? It doesn't mean a guarantee. And again, I stress that because I think people sometimes think that, oh, Gareth said that, so it has to happen. No, nothing has to happen. The market does what it wants. It's all about studying price, pattern, and time, which is what I teach in the winning traders series. And ultimately, then you can start to understand what's the most likely outcome. And once you get to the 70 75% odds, those are the trades I start to take. Right? If it's 60%, yeah, it's a little better than 50/50, but that's not what I'm taking. I'm looking for the high percentage scenarios that can give me a high high win rate. 70 75 80% win rate in my trade setups.
All right. Now, on to earnings. Today, we had Disney. Disney beat on earnings, but their revenue came in ever so slightly weak. The stock initially fell, then popped. Now, it's fading just a little bit. daily chart. If you look at this, right, there's there's I mean, look at how small of a move it is. So, as a trader, as a day trader, what I focus on is big moves. Big moves mean big counter trend moves, right? So, again, if I if a stock is falling and it's filling the gap and it's had a big move, the bounce off gap fill based on technical analysis studying that setup, there should be a big moves move, right? When you get a move like this on Disney as a trader, I I couldn't care less, honestly. I'll mention it, but it would have to fall. I mean, on a swing trade basis obviously down here, but I mean maybe down to 102 would maybe be I mean at that point you start to get to into a pivot low. You also have this gap window over here, this former pivot even over here. But that would probably be my first level to go long right around 102 to 101.
Now Oracle, this is interesting guys. Oracle over the weekend announced that they were going to raise 40 to50 billion dollar in debt overnight. Initially, the stock was down, but now it's trading higher. And I'm going to tell you why. So, we've all heard about how much debt Oracle is going to have to raise or is raising to finance the data centers. And we're all hearing a hundred billion dollar, right?$ 110 billion. I've heard I've heard 120 billion. Well, guess what? 40 to 50 billion is what they're doing right now and that's less than the market was pricing in. So that is bullish. Markets are very right now especially when it comes to data centers and payback. They don't want companies doing a ton of debt because they don't know if the return is going to be feasible. Um are they going to make money with all that debt? And so this when it was less than the hundred plus billion dollars, this was a positive for the stock as investors digested it and the stock is trading up on the back of that.
Now this is a beaten down stock. I mean literally you look at this um this was when you know a few earnings ago it had that major gap up that literally marked the top and it's had a monster fall. I actually think this is getting into a range where it looks good as a swing trade. Couple things I'm keeping an eye on. I wouldn't mind if down the line it goes like if the stock market does correct. This is going to be my my major buy level. You can see connecting your low from the bare market of 2022 to the low of April 2025. The tariff selloff there. This right here around 140 to 145. That's really my bogey level in terms of where I'm going to start to accumulate heavily. But in the meantime, it is getting a bounce today. I'm just not ready to say, okay, the low is in yet. mainly not because I don't think Oracle has sold off enough. Um, it's down significantly, which is probably why it's getting a reflex bounce, but I don't trust the stock market. When you see gold and silver dropping like they do, and Bitcoin, it's a matter of time before the contagion, think about a virus, it spreads from one thing to the next to the next. And that's my concern about the markets. And if the market drops 5% or 10%, Oracle is going to have a tough time going up. It probably goes down.
All right, let's continue on here. I want to flip over to Coinbase. Coinbase is at an interesting level. This is basically with Bitcoin falling. But look at this trend line here, guys. We're kind of right into this zone around 183 or so, trading at 187. But this is an interesting level where I may start to nibble as a swing trade.
Now, is it do I think Bitcoin has bottomed out? Well, let's take a look at the chart here. Now, Bitcoin number one, I called this perfectly, right? So, we knew there was a bare flag formation, right? And again, that was this connector and I drew this in. You can go back and confirm it with all of the um the analysis that I did and all the game plans that I've done. We talked about this as we were bouncing. Uh and then I said, listen, once this breaks this line, the bare flag triggers and you're going to get a bigger dump. And that's exactly what we've seen.
Now, look at this. This is very interesting. You look at if we zoom out on the chart, look at this low. So, if we see we had this big move up and then we move fell back into this level. Then we had a bigger move up, made a new all-time high. Put a trend line right there and look at the low in the overnight. Right to that level. Okay, guys. Right to that level. And all of a sudden, we're back to almost 78,000 after being down to about 74,500 on Bitcoin. So, in the near term, Bitcoin is now due for a bounce.
Now, what are the scenarios here? Well, you could get a little bare flag again and eventually a breakdown. And by the way, I still think Bitcoin probably goes lower during this cycle. But the other scenario would be a bigger bounce to the underbelly, which was at one point support, right? Support, support, support. Then it broke, then it became resistance, resistance. We could get a move up there and then eventually that next move down. Um, I wish I could be I wish I could tell you guys which one it was going to be. I don't know. the charts will reveal themselves as it forms. We'll see. Is it a more vertical bounce or is it more of a kind of slow sideways grind which would then be a standard bare flag. But either way, again folks, great drop on Bitcoin. I still think again if you ask me, is Bitcoin going to go lower in 2026? I would say yes because of the stock market derisking that I think is going to happen. But at least in the short term, Bitcoin has tagged support and is likely due for a bounce at least back into the 80,000, maybe 85,000 range, potentially even 90 if we retraced up to that level.
All right, couple other stocks. I know we flipped over to Bitcoin there, but just keep an eye on this, guys. Roblox here has really been in a sharp downtrend, and I'm starting to eye this quite closely. We have some major pivots that are now in play. You can see right here these couple little pivot points. We kissed this on Friday. Basically, this stock along with Take 2 Interactive and a few others fell sharply on Friday on the back of Google introducing a potential competitor. Today, we are seeing um Roblox bounce back to about 67 to 68. But this is starting to look interesting ahead of earnings. And again, this has really been beaten down. And I think earnings is is in a week or two. But again, it's not to say that this is a cycle low on Roblox, but maybe a good bounce swing trade opportunity.
All right, let's flip into the medals, guys. Wow. Um, again, you know, I was kind of warning over the last week or two about the metals, saying, "Guys, listen, they they're parabolic, but it's been an emotional it's it went from fundamental uh reasons why silver and gold were going up to then an emotional trade. Once it becomes emotional, then you're going to get a flush out at some point. You don't know how high they're going to go. That's the tricky part. But emotional is not the it's not grounded in reality. And I can't tell you how many people told me this time was different. Oh, you know, but the paper versus the physical. Oh, but this and I mean, all the narratives that get invented because people need to justify a move come to the forefront. And that goes on the bearer side or the bullish side. The ultimate point is when you get these type of moves, you get flush outs.
And let's take a look at gold here. So gold in the overnight went down to about 4,400. Take a look at this beautiful trend line that was marking the kind of the trend going back to September of 2025 and look at where we went. And then the other thing to note here is look at this high right here and this high right here. And in fact, this one's really the more accurate one. This is about 4,400 on gold. It pierced this one as well and got back above. But what we can see is if we put a trend line in here, look at where gold stopped on a dime. Right back to that level. Very cool. So in the short term, there's a low pivot in my opinion in on gold. Do I think gold is going to new all-time highs? Not in the near term. The damage is too substantial. Basically, what happens is you get bag holders and people that bought when they shouldn't have been bought buying because they got caught up in the emotion of the trade, the gold trade, the silver trade, they heard it was different. It was a, you know, it was it was different this time. Um, and so they were paying up on silver, let's say 120, 118, $115 per ounce. Gold north of 5,000. Those people are scared right now generally. And when price gets back to those levels, a lot of them will sell. that really makes it hard for price to get through and make new all-time highs. Now, eventually, I think both are going to make new all-time highs. I just don't know if we're going to go lower before we go to new to new all-time highs.
Now, again, how do we know that? Well, simply, let's just follow the charts. If we break this level, just like we talked about on Bitcoin, right? If we break here, then we are heading lower on on gold. And I would suggest I would expect about a 3,900 pivot low as your next level. As long as this holds, then we watch to see how this trades. Does it trade in a bare flag? Does it set up? Do we take out the all-time highs? If we take out the all-time highs, back to price discovery mode, right? So, again, you have to kind of watch for that.
Now, silver. Look at the drop on silver on Friday. It was down, you know, huge there, 26% on the day. Today, it's down a little bit. It did make new lows. Silver got down. Look at this, guys. And this is the beauty of charts. I mean, look at this. And this is why I get so excited is because when you can pinpoint this, it's absolutely remarkable, right? And so here we have this low. See how all these candles, you have the big push up, then the red, then the body. See all the bodies line up. Look at the low right there and the bounce. Now, same thing with silver. The low may be in, but until we we have to watch this zone. So you watch this 717 $71.35 level, 35cent level. If we break that, then honestly, I think we're going back to 5050 to $55 per share. As long as we hold this, we watch to see. Do you take out this first or do you take out this first? Which way? But again, technical damage has been done. No doubt about it.
Oil oil today. So, we've had a great bull move in oil. Um the only difference maker here is that oil, we heard a little bit of a deescalation again from the president on Iran. So immediately we saw that and we also heard from OPEC that they're not going to be um basically they're not cutting production anymore. Um in other words there's going to be the still the same supply and so at least for today you're getting a pullback on the oil trade. I still remain bullish on this trade. Notice again the low here. Where did it go? Well take a look here was your move up your pivot right in here. Your pullback and your breakout. And then look at where price went down to right down to that level right there. And so shortterm $61.75 really is a key level. Maybe $6150. But that would be my first level there to monitor.
Um, all right, natural gas. Look at the drop here, folks. Listen, it's been a little bit of a crazy move. Um I actually had a KOD long position, which is a 2x short on natural gas going into the weekend. We just cashed out of that this morning already uh with Smart Money Stocks and ETF members. So, congrats on that. Um but the the essence of it is is natural gas went up too quickly. You had multiple storms hitting the east coast here. Cold weather even as far south as Florida where it was freezing. Um that drove prices up, but we're now emerging and all of a sudden you're going to see back to normal temperatures and a warming trend and that obviously is going to bring it in. So again, I honestly don't know where natural gas is going to go in the next month or two, but shortterm it was a sell. We b we knocked it out of the park with members of smart money stocks and ETFs there.
All right, so listen, a lot to digest today. Again, we're going to be watching the dollar, the 10-year, the S&P, and the NASDAQ levels. Also, silver and gold and Bitcoin. All of these here, folks. Um, suffice it to say, I continue to be very concerned about the stock market. Not because the stock mark well partially the stock market broke key technical levels but the the draw downs in silver gold and Bitcoin are to me shots across the bow. They're warning signs. They're red flashing lights saying be careful here. There could be d-risking.
All right guys, I'm going to get going here. As always, thank you so much for tuning in to my trading game plan. Now, let's go make some money in the market today. Have a good one. Take care.