Transcription
Hello, you are on Vyacheslav Sharyaev's channel, and this is our traditional Sunday segment, "Weekly Recap." Today's episode features: Rosstat caught lying again. GDP is already falling by 2-3%. Inflation continues to accelerate. The budget deficit in January-February will be off the charts, admits the Ministry of Finance. The state debt pyramid is growing at an unprecedented rate and threatens default. Nationalization of private assets is crushing the economy. Factories are stopping, mass unrest is occurring, Belarus is also entering a crisis, but at the end, one good piece of news, as tradition dictates. And if your YouTube is slow, and VPN doesn't help, I remind you that there is the Telegram channel "Podkaz Shiraev." All audio versions of my broadcasts are there, you will find the link in the description. There is also Instagram with short videos that you can share and watch yourself. They contain short numbers, facts, and comments. In short, subscribe, and you will also find the link to Instagram in the description. Well, let's begin. Economists within the Russian Federation caught Rosstat in a lie, proving an overstatement of industrial dynamics indicators by 2.5%. There you have it. For a moment. By the way, on my channel, I previously substantiated the gap in the false gross domestic product indicators. Now, there is additional information about industry from very reliable sources. So, if the government reports a growth of 0.5%, it means a real decline of 2-3%. Remember this ratio, because the Institute for Problems of Natural Monopolies (IPM) published official statistics ahead of time, an assessment of the results of 2025 in terms of the growth or decline of Russian industry, based on data on energy consumption, electricity consumption. So, in December 2025, the IPM production index, calculated promptly, decreased by 2.8% compared to December 2024, that is, over the year. In general, the IPM data significantly differs from Rosstat, from the figures that Rosstat publishes. For example, in November 2025, the IPM index decreased by 3.2%, while Rosstat reported a 7% decline in industry year-on-year. So, the difference is 2.5%. The IPM index is based on data on electricity consumption, structured, pay attention, by consumer categories, cleared of seasonality, and also from the influence of non-industrial consumers and random temperature factors. That is, very clean statistics on how much electricity industry consumes, meaning it is falling or growing. In general, we are observing a real decline in GDP. Russian industry is also falling. And this is confirmed by the institute that publishes its data ahead of Rosstat's official reports. They provide data approximately several weeks earlier. And Rosstat, I remind you, planned to release data on industrial production at the beginning of February. Let's compare what they will show for November-December and what we can expect further, how we will perceive the official data. I remind you that electricity is a basic means of production for any industrial enterprise, for any process. And the IPM index allows obtaining operational, reliable information about the state of industry, including informal, even illegal activities, because Rosstat, for example, does not see illegal, unofficial activities, but IPM sees everything. Even the grey sector, because the grey sector, the illegal sector also consumes electricity. Therefore, it is a very interesting index. Let's keep following it. Inflation continues to break records. For the week ending January 19th, consumer inflation was 45%. We, of course, don't believe it. We just follow the dynamics. I report it not to discuss it seriously. That is, their figures are still much higher than usual. They showed such a figure of 45% in July, for example, when utility tariffs sharply increased and inflation jumped up. Now, they are reaching a monthly inflation of 1.72% by January 19th. So, for January, they will definitely exceed 2%. I remind you that their target for the year is 4%, and for January alone, they should show more than 2% of their false inflation. Whereas a year earlier, in January 2025, monthly inflation was 1.20-1.23%. And what grew the most were vodka by 1.5%, margarine by 1.3%, and fruit and vegetable products on average, which became almost 3% more expensive, cucumbers are still soaring at 6%, tomatoes at 3.3%, cabbage and potatoes at over 2%. Well, this is in line with what I told you in the previous episode, where we discussed price increases up to January 12th. So, this is an addition. Such record figures. And of course, inflation is based on the fact that a lot of money is being printed, and this money does not find confirmation in real production, does not find a corresponding supply of goods and services. And interesting data came out about the volume of cash. It turns out that since the start of the special military operation, the volume has increased by 40%, meaning there is more cash. There was 14 trillion rubles in cash, now it's over 20 trillion rubles. And in recent months, the growth of cash has simply broken all records. So, a sharp upward graph. Some associate this with internet outages, with the fact that many are going into the shadows, but nevertheless, the process of printing money itself is also a very important factor in heating up inflation. In general, the transition to cash is a sign of economic instability. When people understand that things will get worse, that banks cannot be relied upon, they switch to cash due to economic uncertainty. This is even acknowledged by the Central Bank itself. And in July-September 2025, for example, the increase in cash circulation in the economy was five times greater than in 2024. You can imagine, five times greater. So, people will react to any attempts by the state to strip them, to deceive them. And by the way, here is an important piece of news, also a warning from the Central Bank, that the stimulation of non-cash payments should not be accompanied by a shortage of cash or problems with cash circulation. What does this mean? The state has taken on the task of "whitening" the economy. Putin wants to control all flows, saying, "Let's see everything." And you can only see non-cash payments; it is impossible to track how people exchange cash among themselves. And naturally, the Central Bank fears that these measures to "whiten" the economy will be similar to what happened in India. In India, they tried to fight black money by tightening the screws and trying to bring enterprises into the white sphere. All this caused a cash shortage and reduced economic activity. The negative effect of attempts to "whiten" the economy and fight corruption in India through restricting cash circulation outweighed the positive results of these measures. Well, I think it will be roughly the same in Russia. Their attempt to "whiten" the economy will only cause the opposite effect, an even greater contraction of the economy, an even greater shrinkage, because, naturally, the sharp increase in cash at the end of 2025, provoking inflation, cannot go unnoticed. The state needs to do something about it, but by doing something about it, the state causes the opposite effect. Data from December 26th indicates that something is wrong with cash, with the economy being oversaturated with cash. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance understands that everything is very bad. And I talked about this in previous episodes, stating that they have a real budget deficit of 8 trillion. They report 2 trillion, and they will postpone it to the beginning of next year. The words of Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev, confirming this thought, were heard: "Russia may face a significant deficit at the beginning of the year." Well, we understand that it will be very large. Well, 2, maybe 3 trillion, we will see, for January-February. This is very much, because they already have a deficit of about 4 trillion in 2026. They have a shortfall in oil and gas revenues in 2026, another about 4 trillion. And plus these 2 trillion, which they shifted from 2025 expenses to 2026, forces them to show a very large budget deficit at the beginning of 2026. And they are already preparing the ground, explaining that you shouldn't worry, the deficit at the beginning of the year will be large, but we will somehow manage later. They won't manage. We just listen to what they say and understand how things really are. And things are such that they have nowhere to put this deficit. They will spread it out over 2026, increasing the already huge deficit of 2026 even more. All this is naturally due to reduced revenues from oil and gas and increasing expenses, because they need to cover the obligations they took on for 2025 and did not fulfill. Now in 2026, they have to answer to military-industrial complex enterprises and other budget recipients, but their non-oil and gas revenues will also decrease, as will recycling fees and technological fees. Everything they have drawn up, import duties, everything will decrease, and therefore, naturally, the budget deficit will grow. The most problematic situation is regional budgets. We continue to monitor them. We continue to monitor non-payment of salaries. Last time we talked about Khakassia. Now it's Kuzbass. Non-payment of salaries in Kuzbass is due to a monstrous deficit. Medics suffered, medical workers are complaining en masse about non-payment and salary reductions. Earlier, before the New Year holidays, public sector employees in Khakassia were left without money. We talked about this, and now employees of the city hospitals of Kemerovo, who received a small advance in December, were left without bonuses, and their January salary did not arrive on time at all. A quote: "My wife, a doctor, received 13,000 for December." thousands, one subscriber wrote. Meanwhile, in January, payments to medical workers in Anzhero-Sudzhensk were delayed. A quote: "The salary was supposed to be today, January 15th, but at best, it will be given in the latter half of the month. How are we supposed to pay our bills and live, considering that the advance was only 15,000 rubles?" complain medical workers. Complaints are also coming from the Kuzbass Clinical Center for Miners' Health Protection. A quote: "Salaries are paid with delays, and if they are paid, then without additional payments for the delay." which this additional payment should be received by the employee if your salary is not paid on time. Also, they have never paid the bonus for young specialists, and for the results of 2025, unlike the previous year, medical staff and doctors of the clinic did not receive bonuses. I remind you that the problems in Kemerovo, naturally, these salary issues are due to a monstrous budget deficit. Here is another figure for you. For 11 months of 2025, for the 12th month, we will soon know the data, the volume of profit tax received from the coal industry decreased by more than 20 times compared to 2023. It amounted to only about 1,800 million rubles. Whereas in 2023, it was 47 billion rubles. Of course, there is no money. Will medical workers stay? We'll see. And of course, the state prints money, builds a state debt pyramid, borrowing more and more from banks. And the acceleration rate of state debt growth and the volume of interest that the Ministry of Finance must pay for this state debt are increasing at an unprecedented rate. Attention. Expenses for interest payments on federal loan bonds in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 836 billion rubles. Look at the graph by Evgeny Strebin. He is an economist from Ukraine who constantly compiles data from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance into beautiful graphs and tables. I often use them. Subscribe. Evgeny Strebin on Facebook. I often read him. I tell you the most interesting things. So, this is 37% more than a year earlier. 37% growth in state debt servicing costs per year. In 2026, the mark of 1 trillion per quarter for state debt servicing will surely be overcome. 1 trillion is almost as much as for housing and communal services and science per year. And they will spend per quarter only on servicing their state debt. And not the sum of housing and communal services plus science, but separately, housing and communal services and science separately, plus or minus a trillion. They will really spend that much every quarter just on debt servicing. And for 2025, expenses for servicing OFZ amounted to 3,100 billion rubles. This is more than 7% of the budget. And this is 42% more per year than they spent in 2024 on state debt servicing, by 42%. At the same time, they also spend on subsidizing preferential loan rates, family mortgages, and military-industrial complex enterprises. If you count these payments, it will be 11% of the budget that the Ministry of Finance spends on servicing these debts. And in 2025, only 5.4 trillion rubles were borrowed from banks. Of these, 3.1 trillion rubles went specifically to debt servicing. So, they borrow to service their state debt. Well, a sign of a pyramid, unequivocally, you understand this perfectly. So, if expenses for state debt servicing grow at a rate of 42% per year, and revenues only by 2% - budget revenues, while these are nominal revenues growing by 2% in nominal terms, and considering inflation, they are falling, understand? Yes? So, plus 2% growth, subtract inflation of, say, 10-15% real. We understand that expenses and revenues are actually decreasing. So, 42% growth in servicing volumes, plus 2% nominal revenue growth, means the gap is widening, you are spending more and more on state debt servicing, and your revenues are falling and falling. This is a sign of very serious problems with the budget. Naturally, in any country, such a gap sooner or later leads to default. The key area of struggle against Russian revenues is the tanker fleet, the confrontation with Russia's grey tanker fleet. Last week, there were two pieces of news that cannot be ignored. Firstly, they are starting to turn back Russian tankers in the Baltic. The Baltic Sea is a significant part, 60% of Russia's maritime oil and petroleum product exports. And Germany turned back the tanker Arcusat for the first time in years of sanctions, not allowing it into a Baltic port of the Russian Federation. And this tanker was sailing either under the flag of Tanzania or Cameroon. Well, that is, a false flag. And these false flags will now become a perfectly legal reason for denying access to sanctioned vessels in the straits between Sweden and Denmark. There is no way to bypass them. If you go to or from Baltic ports, and Baltic ports could be completely blockaded if Germany, along with Great Britain, shows determination and persistence. Because Article 110 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea allows for the interception of vessels without national affiliation, i.e., with false flags. This is what the European Union wants to use, which is preparing legal justification for detaining tankers in its territorial waters that are trying to transport Russian oil, bypassing European sanctions. But then France also stepped in, which, together with Great Britain, detained a tanker in the Mediterranean Sea. Here are two pieces of news. Freight rates are naturally rising. Russia's expenses for transporting illegal oil are increasing, making exports completely meaningless. Especially since it leads nowhere. Tankers simply leave ports, cannot sell oil. These tankers stand, filled with oil. Already 220 million barrels of Russian oil are floating at sea, unable to find buyers for this volume. And this tanker that Germany detained, or rather, turned back, the Arcusat, turned out not to be listed in any databases. There is the Easis database, used by industry participants. In this database, it is marked as never having existed. And in the IMO's database, there is no vessel with the number indicated by this tanker Arcusat. There are more and more such tankers. No one is giving Russia their flags, no one is letting these grey tankers into their maritime registers. Thus, there are plenty of grounds for their detention. Europe can calmly do this, because the authorities of coastal states have the full right to restrict navigation under a false flag. Well, I remind you that all this happened after Trump detained the Russian tanker Bella1, which then changed its name and flag to Russian in the waters between Iceland and Scotland. And all this became very contagious. Europe caught up. As we thought. Like thunder from a clear sky, the news of the closure of the unfortunate "Mashenka" bakery sounded last week, about its imminent closure, because the owner of the bakery from the Moscow region, who appealed during a direct line, Denis Maksimov, could not solve his problems due to changes in the tax code, tax increases, reduction of the simplified tax system threshold. All these appeals yielded no results. And according to Maksimov, the bakery's popularity increased slightly after the direct line, but the effect was short-lived, and the owner expected a different outcome of receiving tax benefits. Immediately, the government grasped its head and decided to develop a special rescue plan for the "Mashenka" bakery. I hope that Minister Reshetnikov will also develop business plans for the neighboring "Sharmya" at Armen's, and perhaps the sex shop on the corner nearby will also receive some special plan. Each time the government will gather, decide what to do, how to save. It is clear that the problem will not be solved this way. But using the example of "Mashenka," we see what catastrophic consequences the Ministry of Finance's attempt to extract even a little money from people and enterprises for the war will have for the Russian economy. And it is not surprising that 2025 turned out to be the first year of mass layoffs. Such news also interested me last week. A quarter of Russian companies, organizations, and enterprises reduced their staff in the past year, and very significantly. For 51% of employers, reductions were by 11-20%. For 18% of enterprises, organizations, and companies, it was as much as 21-30%. Such data was published by GET Experts. 66% of companies from this list named financial difficulties as the main reason for mass layoffs. And in general, over 2 years of observation, the number of companies that reduced their staff doubled in 2025. Naturally, companies and enterprises will shift the duties of the laid-off employees onto the remaining ones. All this will naturally cause discontent, a reduction in labor productivity, and employee efficiency. And companies will continue to suffer from financial losses, further reducing staff because there is no money. In short, this spiral will continue to tighten, worsening the situation in companies and entire industries. Well, I'm noting that mass layoffs have already begun in 2025. And in December, 33% of small and medium-sized enterprises, so-called SMEs, admitted the possibility of closing their businesses in the next six months. A third of small and medium-sized businesses showed this in a survey by the Association of Entrepreneurs of Russia, Promsvyazbank, the NAFI Analytical Center, and Magram Market. This is also confirmed by the forecast of the head of the corporate finance department of FINAM Financial Group, Alexey Kurassov, who names the VAT increase and the reduction of the threshold for applying the simplified tax system as the main reasons for the dire situation of SMEs. He also believes that Russia's dependence on large foreign businesses will increase, which will enter the country through grey imports, killing the remnants of small and medium-sized entrepreneurship in Russia. The activity of Chinese manufacturers on marketplaces will kill the very import substitution boom that he, Mr. Kurassov, observed since 2022. I didn't observe anything, but well, he knows better. In short, this import substitution effect will simply be destroyed, the expert believes. And grey imports from unfriendly countries through large channels will also not be touched, because without them, many military-industrial complex enterprises cannot survive. And, of course, the creeping nationalization, when the state takes assets from private owners, will finish off the Russian economy in 2026. There are two absolutely stunning news items that indicate how things will generally be at state-seized enterprises. A quote from Oleg Deripaska. How can you try to sell something worth 40 billion rubles for 130 billion? Who is that smart person, I'm afraid to ask. Deripaska is talking about the attempt to sell Domodedovo Airport. The Ministry of Finance could not sell it, the auction was canceled. I remind you that Domodedovo Airport, after being taken from its private owner, Kamenshchik, showed a record loss of 10 billion rubles for the year. And this is despite the fact that the airport already has debts of 75 billion rubles. So, what idiot will buy all this stuff for 130 billion? In short, the money will not reach the budget. The Ministry of Finance's attempts to earn from the privatization of stolen assets are meaningless, in short, the hole will be even bigger. But it's also interesting what happened, for example, at the Chelyabinsk Electrometallurgical Combine, which was also taken from its private owner. It turned out that a certain organized crime group developed there, which embezzled tens of millions on state contracts. The enterprise was nationalized, and an organized crime group was formed. And this group stole ferroalloys. A group of employees of the nationalized enterprise, that is, essentially state employees already. They stole ferroalloys intended for state orders and sold them on the shadow market. That is, part of the metal was unloaded during delivery to the final consumer and replaced with lower-quality products. At the same time, the plant itself incurred a loss of over 7 billion rubles in 2024. This is after these new owners came, they published such data. Whereas the private, non-state owner had a profit of 4 billion rubles. In short, nationalization will finish off the Russian economy much faster than previously thought. As they say, let's not interfere, let's just observe. By the way, the failed privatization of Domodedovo is also an interesting story. The auction did not take place on January 20th, only one application was submitted for the purchase of the airport. And, of course, when there is only one application, no one conducts an auction. So, the application was submitted by individual entrepreneur Evgeny Bogaty. In short, he is from the Chechen village of Benayurt. And his company, where he is the director and owner, is engaged in car washing. That's how serious the business of selling stolen goods in Russia is. Only such people can be interested in stolen goods. Before we move on to the situation in individual regions and industries and at individual enterprises, I remind you that subscribing to my channel, to my YouTube, helps you receive very high-quality analytics in the form of recommendations from YouTube. Therefore, subscribe right now, YouTube will remember it and will recommend very good video materials to you in the future. I also have a Telegram channel "Kratko po delu" (Briefly to the point), where there is one, but the most important economic news daily. You will find the link in the description to this video. Subscribe. Telegram channel "Kratko po delu." I highly recommend it. Well, now to the industries. The worst year in the last 10 years for Russian retail trade, writes the newspaper Izvestia. The business confidence index in Russian retail at the end of 2025 was at its lowest level in decades. In the fourth quarter, this index dropped below six. This index shows a predominance of pessimists, those who in the industry believe that things will get worse, over optimists, those who believe that everything will be fine. So, the number of companies assessing the situation in the industry as unfavorable exceeds the share of optimists. And a lower figure in retail was recorded only in the second quarter of 2020, i.e., during the pandemic, when everything was closed. Then it was -7, now it's -6, but there is no pandemic at all. What happened? Why will it soon be worse than during the pandemic? A rhetorical question. A catastrophe in the office real estate market, which also demonstrates the health of the economy, the health of entrepreneurship, the entrepreneurial sphere, the state of affairs. So, the result is that the outflow of tenants leads to an increase in the vacancy rate in office real estate by more than eight times in 2 years. There is an outflow of tenants. All companies are optimizing: IT companies, auditors, subsidiaries of federal state corporations, large companies, private federal ones. And nothing new, naturally, is being built in office real estate. And companies are vacating premises because they are shrinking. There are eight times more vacant premises. And the demand for office space rental has decreased by 5%, and interest in the office space purchase and sale market has fallen by 11%. Data from Vasily Grigoriev, Director of Market Research at Core XP. Processor production in Russia is also falling. It would seem that processors are needed. Import substitution is underway, rockets, computers, everything needs to be domestic, but processor production is falling. In 2025, Russia's output of processors and controllers was only 7.5 million units, or 12% less than in 2024. Then 8.5 million units were produced. Problems with the supply of modern lithographic and testing equipment, a deficit of critical materials, all this hinders the development of the industry. I remind you, sanctions are nothing to them. Just like that, nothing. In general, in 2021, 10.5 million processors and controllers were produced. Now it's 7.5 million. Such a reduction over the years of full-scale invasion. Problems are also growing in the agricultural sector. We constantly talk about this. There is less and less food. In the Ulyanovsk region, farmers are again lacking money. Milk and cows are too expensive. Cows are being reduced very quickly. At the agricultural committee of the Legislative Assembly, they discussed the allocation of subsidies, how to support farmers, but there is no money, and it is unclear where to get it to support farmers. And when the microphone was turned off, the head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Alexey Leushkin, said: "Without a microphone, summarizing the two-hour discussions, solve your problems yourselves, without a microphone." This is what agricultural producers heard. Meanwhile, the cattle population in the Ulyanovsk region has decreased by 42,000 heads over 5 years, or by 36% of cows by 17,000 heads. Gross milk yield has fallen by 40%, from 230,000 tons to 175,000 tons. Livestock and poultry production has decreased by 13.5%, and beef production for slaughter by 41%. Such are the successes in agriculture in the Ulyanovsk region. Solve your problems yourselves, dear farmers and agricultural producers. Also, news from the Rostov region, where milk production continues to fall, by 13% in 2025, the production of this important agricultural product decreased. Only 128,000 tons were produced, 18,500 tons less than the previous year. And in other regions, it's a catastrophe. Let's go through it. The leader is Krasnoyarsk Krai. This is the first place. A decrease of almost 6% in agricultural production, particularly milk, only 400,000 tons produced. Moscow Oblast, a decrease of 3%, 19,000 tons less. And for eggs, a 12.5% decrease. In general, there is some kind of lawlessness in the Rostov region. Something inexplicable is happening with agriculture. Well, it's clear that we can explain everything, but for officials, it's some kind of mystery why livestock and poultry production for slaughter is falling by 300,000 tons. Now only 300,000 tons remain, a decrease again by 4%. Eggs, only 1.1 billion pieces. This is 20% less than in 2024. Well, and so on. Vodka production is also falling. Next, we will talk about how vodka production is interestingly redistributed in various
In regions and why, in general, there is a decline. But for now, I will provide such figures. According to the results of the twenty-fifth year, vodka production decreased by 4.2% to a total of 79 million decaliters. Cognac production collapsed by 13%. And all this, naturally, is due to the fact that prices for alcohol are sharply increasing. In February of the twenty-fourth year, a liter of vodka cost 780 rubles. By the end of December of the twenty-fifth, it was already 860 rubles. People are switching to illegal alcohol because the price increase over the year is 13.5%. I remind you, inflation is six percent, yes. Well, for example, in the Tomsk region, the pace of vodka production decline became the largest in the country. In the twenty-fifth year, vodka production increased, decreased, I apologize, almost fivefold. In the Tomsk region, in Yakutia, almost fourfold, in the Kostroma region, almost threefold. Output decreased by 40% in Moscow and the Tyumen region, and so on. Everywhere, everywhere, everywhere. Only in one region is vodka production growing. Do you know in which one? North Ossetia. North Ossetia is such a black hole with illegal production of duty-free alcohol and so on, and so on. That is, you raise vodka prices, everything falls everywhere, the illegal market grows, everyone buys duty-free alcohol, budget revenues decrease, people drink God knows what. This is the effect of the state's attempt to squeeze some more kopecks out of the population. By the way, alcohol production completely stopped in the Kaliningrad region and Maria L. Why, if North Ossetia will supply everything perfectly without excise taxes, of unknown quality. So the trend is obvious. Well, naturally, people are switching to moonshine, to denatured alcohol, to anything, just not to pay, uh, these insane amounts for the basic product. Beer is also decreasing for now by 1%. It's all due to the price increase, but the decline is obvious. The excise tax has increased by 8.6%. Stores are closing because all this is due to tax reforms and these measures that we have already discussed above. Small alcohol chains, draft beer stores, sell beer, they cannot survive, so the decline in legal production and consumption is also driven by this. All warehouses of brewers are overflowing. In the twenty-sixth year, production will have to be sharply reduced because it will be necessary to work from warehouses, to sell off what is in stock. And then we will see an even greater decline in alcohol production, because there is nowhere else to sell it. News came from Belarus, industry there is going into the red, also working for stock. Now there are 12 billion of their Belarusian rubles of unsold products accumulated. Industrial production is decreasing by 2% in Belarus. Manufacturing industry immediately by 2.5%. Enterprises are also working for stock. Now, finished products are approximately 80% of the volume of monthly supplies. Well, that is, Belarus as a whole can not work for a month, close everything and only trade what is from the warehouse. This indicates that there will be a very sharp decline further, because it is necessary to sell off the remnants from warehouses. It makes no sense to produce new ones. Stocks are growing and growing, and money is becoming less and less. All this, naturally, leads to the shutdown of factories sooner or later. Just as, for example, the largest enterprise of the largest cement producer, TSMROZ, closed in Russia. In the twenty-fifth year, the plant in the Belgorod region and the plant in the Ulyanovsk region temporarily suspended operations. And another plant in the Lipetsk region switched to a limited mode. Quote: "In the Belgorod region, the Belgorod Cement enterprise has been stopped." In parallel, the Ulyanovsk branch is being phased out, and the Lipetsk branch has been switched to a limited mode. All this is due to a decrease in demand for cement. Demand decreased by 9% this year, last year, I apologize, in absolute terms, the market slumped by 6 million tons. 6 million tons is the monthly consumption of the entire country. So the country can not build or produce anything for a month, it doesn't need this much concrete. And this figure can also be compared with the load of 5-6 plants. That is, five or six plants need to be closed in Russia, people fired, and then this volume of decline will be compensated. But in the twenty-sixth year, the decline will continue, and cement producers are already crying their eyes out. The Cement Union, an organization that unites cement producers, has issued such a forecast that without the use of cement in road construction, companies will not be able to survive, because they have nowhere to sell this cement. Therefore, let the state force them to lay cement instead of asphalt. Well, like in America, cement roads are concrete, yes, let's do the same in Russia. This is a cry of despair. Let's shove this concrete somewhere, because nobody needs it. Housing construction will not pull this industry. Naturally, all this is unrealistic, naturally, no one will change anything. And the cement industry awaits a collapse just like all other industries. Against this background, the demand for personnel in Russia has fallen to a 6-year low. In our recent releases, it's always a minimum for 10 years, a minimum for 15 years, a minimum for 6 years. Please pay attention to this. The economy's decline is accelerating, and the processes of the entire system's collapse are accelerating. And we observe this from various indirect signs. So, in the twenty-fifth year, employers declared only 1.5 million vacancies to employment services. This is the lowest figure since 2019, that is, 7 years minus, as if licked off by a cow's tongue. And even then, the unemployment rate was much higher, twice as high. And now the unemployment rate seems to be half as low, but the number of vacancies is simply minimal, and at the same time, the number of resumes is growing according to SuperJob by 20% by the end of the twenty-fifth year. And, because of this, Russian companies, attention, a new term, are switching to a mode of tactical poverty, that is, they are canceling bonuses and salary indexations due to the economic crisis. Problems are mounting, and enterprises are urged to tighten their belts, urging their employees. At these meetings with labor collectives, they announce the necessary measures, summarize the results of the twenty-fifth year and say: "Now we are poor, please, no bonuses, no extra payments, nothing, just sit on your base salary." And this is called a mode of tactical poverty. That is, they could pay, but they don't. Therefore, tactical, but poverty. In general, the labor market awaits structural transformation. Shadow employment, informal relations will naturally grow. Let's recall the attempts to flood the Russian economy. They won't succeed at all. Regular employees will be replaced by various freelancers, self-employed. The tax authorities will try to catch all this, but without options. And before we move on to good news, news from a subscriber. Vyacheslav, hello. Information about the Northern Shipping Company, founded in 1870, is now bankrupt due to sanctions, which are beneficial to us. Thank you to our dear subscribers who send such interesting data and news, because not everything gets into the central or even regional press. Often you provide very important information that helps everyone else understand what is happening in the Russian economy. Well, now for the good news. The problem with airplanes has been solved. Will you fly, dear Russians? True, the question is on what? So, Russia is de-mothballing passenger aircraft that have been taken out of operation, which are tens of years old. We will fly, therefore, on all these Tu-204s, all these Boeing 747s, which should have long ago gone to the scrapyard after the bankruptcy of Transaero, for example. They stood in Domodedovo, remember, such large planes. Now they will be turned into something that flies, and you will fly on them. 12 aircraft of various types will be put into operation. This will partially compensate for the shortage of Russian aviation equipment. Nine medium-haul aircraft Tu-204 and Tu-214, one regional An-148, which, I remind you, was produced in Ukraine, and two long-haul wide-body Il-96 will be returned. All this scrap metal will be put on the wing. Passengers will be offered to fly on all of this. And I would advise you not to agree to this. Those who watch me in Russia, pay close attention to what you are offered to fly on. But all this, naturally, will not solve any problems, because according to forecasts, by 2030, the retirement of 340 aircraft from the fleet of Russian airlines is expected. And these 12, of course, are nothing. That's all. Before we say goodbye, I remind you that on my platform Dom, in this time segment, this week, the broadcast of the Kinokod program series has ended. Now you can watch all 12 episodes at once. The last one was with the wonderful stand-up comedian Arina Lalaeva. In general, watch this wonderful episode, but it's better to watch it all at once. Also, "Where Did It Go?" last week pleased us with meetings with tennis player Myaagi and singer Grechka. Unique conversations, inimitable vibe. In general, watch "Where Did It Go?". There are already eight episodes on the Dom platform. And also be sure to watch the new game "Smarter Than the Smart," where the team of super-pros led by Rovshan Askerov continues to compete with amateurs. But spoiler: amateurs have already won against the super-pros once. Don't miss the last episode with singer Sonya Shas. Sonya led the team of amateurs. In general, a lot of new things. Be sure to visit Dom Show, subscribe, the link is in the description. That's all. At the end of the video, as usual, I say goodbye. See you on the channel. Bye. suddenly you feel some sadness, nostalgia. [music] Around, a camera is just flying, we have a whirlwind of dances. >> They pulled me out of the hall and right in the hall they >> Here are my people all around, right? >> People discuss each other and people condemn each other. >> Some kind of role-playing games. This whole BDSM thing. >> Lord have mercy, >> what? Life is happening here, attention is happening here. Oops, >> just a pleasant time. They are looking at something so, which we will spend with friends. [music] You would think, well, that's it, well, enough. But no, they are back with us. >> As you introduced them, so they look. >> Can we kick out the main character? >> Utyan on the left hand. >> Right. Ready to try your luck? >> What intrigue. What a blockbuster. 86. >> A fine line between stupidity and nonsense. [music] >> Wait. >> You allowed it yourself. [music] >> The stakes are so high that we cannot afford even a moment of weakness. >> I'm getting goosebumps now. [music] Well, >> in general, they mixed everything up and this is what happened. >> Dygady and music. Music, music, music. [music] >> Were those emotions from AliExpress or >> some kind of tension. So, this is ideal. Eyes are burning >> just like that. Yeah.