Transcription
[Song] [Song] Hello, welcome to Business Tomorrow Live by Tader CP. During this segment, we will analyze the situation in the Middle East after a new round of clashes between the United States and Iran over the past weekend. Yesterday, both sides stopped fighting and decided to return to the negotiating table once again. According to the original schedule, the negotiations were supposed to take place today in Doha, Qatar. But it appears that there is now conflicting information. The US says Iran requested to negotiate and sent a representative. They confirmed that Step CS and Jared Kushner would come to Qatar. However, Iran insists that there is no agenda to negotiate with the US and will not engage in negotiations with the US in Qatar. Instead, they will send a representative to follow up on the lifting of sanctions and compliance with the MOU. It seems that the situation remains fragile and volatile. The point that seems to be a crucial crossroads toward peace, which the world has been waiting for, is today. Gita has invited General Rangsi to discuss again. Previously, he analyzed in a Big Prediction that the signing of the MOU or this negotiation is merely a tactical pause, or a strategic pause to buy time in order to prepare for renewed fighting. But today, a new negotiation platform is about to take place. How do you see it, sir? Today, we invite you to talk again, including the developments we must follow regarding the future over the next 3-6 months, a world that may change forever. Today, we invite General Rangsi Kiriya-sap, head of the Economic Party, to talk once again. General Rangsi, hello.
>> Hello, Khun Gita and viewers and listeners at home.
>> Thank you, General Rangsi, for taking the time to talk again. At this point, it seems there is a new round of negotiations after they exchanged fire over the past weekend. General Rangsi, do you still see this round as buying time again, or will they actually return to the negotiating table and move toward genuine peace?
>> The negotiations in Doha today are strange because representatives have come, and the latest news is that they are in different rooms, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> So, before we get into the situation of what is likely to happen from here, let me give you a bit of background so that viewers and listeners can follow along. After the signing of the 14-point MOU, there was immediately a new attack. The latest: Iran attacked a Singapore-flagged ship, which I call Singapore-flagged because the real owner is Taiwan, and also attacked a Panama-flagged ship. Then, after Iran's attack, the US retaliated immediately, striking at the city of Sinik and on Qeshm Island, which the US believes are both missile launch bases, drone launch bases, and radar bases of Iran. After the US struck, Iran announced that the reason for attacking the Singapore-flagged and Panama-flagged ships was that they were sailing close to the Omani coast without notifying Iran, because Iran declared that it would unilaterally control the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman co-managing, but the control rests with Iran. Therefore, they must notify Iran first. That was Iran's reason for the attack. After that, when the US struck Qeshm and Sinik, Iran retaliated immediately by attacking 8 US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Looking at this, I think the 14-point agreement saying that within 30 days the Strait of Hormuz must be opened, and within 60 days nuclear development must be discussed—I see it becoming increasingly bleak. It looks more like buying time. But what I have observed following this, or what the viewers and listeners following me have seen, is that after this signing, what happened? The Russia-Ukraine war flared up, with Ukraine sending thousands of drones to attack Moscow. Now Putin is under heavy domestic pressure, asking why he does not use a strategy like Iran's—attacking NATO's production bases or those in Europe. Even the Russian opposition and Putin's own team have approved that Russia must open a front in Europe. We must watch to see how President Putin will decide—whether to attack like Iran, targeting wherever NATO bases or weapons production bases that destroy Russia are located, and destroy them completely. That would trigger a 100% regional war in Europe, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> Secondly, Khun Gita, look at China. Recently, there have been abnormal diplomatic operations. After Xi Jinping flew to meet Kim Jong-un, he then invited—well, Cambodia is definitely on the list, right? You have signed already, and soon our prime minister will go in July as invited, along with many other countries. China's doorstep is not dry these days. I believe China is heavily adjusting its strategy now because China is starting to realize that a major war is likely unavoidable. China is currently reinforcing operations near Taiwan, with plans to blockade both air and sea. China is conducting drills, sending ships into the Taiwan Strait. Ultimately, if something happens, I believe China will blockade Taiwan by sea and air, declaring a no-fly zone north of Taiwan. The reason for the blockade of Taiwan is that China has already signaled that Japan and the Philippines have been negotiating maritime boundary delimitation in the South China Sea, defining exclusive economic zones and continental shelves. China says, "Hey, in the South China Sea, China also has a part. Why wasn't China told? Why did Japan and the Philippines agree bilaterally?" That's not all. Recently, the South Korean government and the Japanese government announced full-scale defense cooperation. We need to understand that South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines are what? Allies under the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, Gita.
>> I see.
>> So there are movements already. Therefore, when China announced it would blockade the sea through naval drills, Taiwan immediately raised its war readiness, Gita. This is what has happened after signing the 14-point MOU.
>> I see.
>> So, look at it this way. Today, there will be two scenarios for what is called a perfect World War III, a full-scale world war. I analyze this from many things happening simultaneously. The first scenario: if the US, Israel, or NATO cannot hold off until the US midterm elections, which will affect the Trump administration's decision-making because it needs congressional votes in both the House and Senate, it could explode sooner. The second scenario: try to hold off until after the US midterm elections, when Donald Trump wins and can control both the House and Senate. So these two scenarios I mentioned cannot avoid World War III, but whether it happens before or after the midterm elections, we must follow the situation minute by minute. Because when it happens, it will occur in three major battlefields. The first is a regional battlefield in Europe: Russia vs. NATO, as Putin's team and the opposition support the idea of going beyond Ukraine—not just fighting in the four annexed regions and Crimea, but destroying the bases producing weapons that support Ukraine, because if Russia continues like this, Russia will lose. So we wait and see. The first battlefield: Russia vs. NATO. The second battlefield is the Middle East, which we already see today—talking and negotiating while alternating attacks, each side having its reasons. If a major war happens this time, I believe it will be big, including the Middle East and also the Indian Ocean, around the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—it will be version three of the clash. But this version will be decisive because it will lead to a perfect World War T. The third battlefield, the most frightening, Gita, is big brother China. Today, China is showing what they call a clear reaction to war. First, Gita, few people know that China is accelerating production of one million drones since 2023, with a deadline of 2027, because China believes that a major war with the US is hard to avoid under the Indo-Pacific strategy, especially around the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. This will pair up: North Korea and South Korea clash, and also clash with Japan. China will seize Taiwan according to the plan of national unification, which is already a national plan, and destroy the Philippines and its allies. China's allies are Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam. The US allies are clearly the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea, which have shown themselves. The decisive point is not the South China Sea; the decisive point if a regional war in the Indo-Pacific occurs is the Strait of Malacca—that is, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Gita's Thailand will inevitably be in this battlefield. Therefore, when Xi Jinping invited both Hun Sen and Hun Manet to talk in Beijing, and will soon invite our Prime Minister Anutin, I believe they are discussing attitude adjustment—simply put, what perspective to take if the Indo-Pacific strategy really happens. This will be a big deal for the whole world. I believe that World War III will erupt, whether before or after the US midterm elections, with many battles. In one war, there might be 20 battles. We already see: Russia vs. Poland, Russia vs. Germany, Russia vs. England, right? Or Russia vs. France, or Russia vs. Finland. Iran may clash with Israel and US forces in the Middle East, including Bahrain and Kuwait, where Iran constantly fires rockets. In the South China Sea, oh my, there will be heavy fighting because there are ten countries involved in this strategic region: North Korea, South Korea, the Philippines, China, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia. I expect that from now on, we must watch closely. Looking at the overall picture now, the situation is continuously developing. And China itself is playing the big brother role fully now. I see it this way: today, the US stopped fighting. The major reasons are: 1) Oil prices in the US. Although the US is a major oil and gas producer, it is not a major refined oil producer and must rely on imports from the Middle East. So the US stopped to adjust plans, to add more weapons, and to curb inflation, because inflation affects the cost of living and affects bond yields, Gita. So from here, the Thai-Cambodian conflict may also become a character that China needs to make us and Cambodia stop fighting in order to prepare for the big war—World War III.
>> What makes you analyze that war must occur within the next 5 months? Fast or slow, depending on the elections. That is another point. But what is the motivation that will cause war to happen in the near future? Where does it come from?
>> It comes from the fact that the US used to be the sole superpower. But today, Russia and China have clearly declared that the world will no longer have a single superpower. The world must be a multipolar world—multiple superpowers. It is possible that in the future, there will be superpowers: the US pole, the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran pole, and another pole we must consider: the NATO pole. That is possible because NATO itself has a plan to stand on its own, rely on its own economy within Europe and the EU, and develop its own military, planned for 2030, Khun Gita—that's 3 years from now. That is my reasoning: today, when there are many poles, sharing benefits is not like when the US ate alone for the past 80 years. Ultimately, there must be a single remaining superpower. But at this moment, there are two clear poles. Europe as a third pole—whether it will succeed or not, we must watch. So that's why they can't talk things out, Khun Gita.
>> But what is the trigger point for war? You see...
>> The pressure or the thing that will force the decision for war—what will it be? Where will it start? What will be the fuse that suddenly leads to a major war?
>> Economic pressure, Gita. As I said, today the global economy has entered a recession and is already in stagflation. It cannot continue like this. Even if the Hormuz Strait is opened, global analysts say oil will not drop much more; it will stay at 70-80. Another thing: the latest news is that the US agreed to pay back the money it seized from Iran—6 billion dollars out of 24 billion, paying only one-fourth. I see that as the US buying time. If the US were sincere, the 24 billion sitting in Qatar could be returned all at once, right? Because it is Iran's money, and it's in Qatar. But returning it like this, I believe it's buying time. Because today, the US itself must go back to handle domestic issues: inflation, energy crisis, and midterm elections. But I believe the US will never let go or withdraw from the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. And don't forget, there are still 2 years left. If the elections finish smoothly, anything can happen in those 2 years, Khun Gita.
>> I see. But starting a war inevitably causes widespread damage. Who would benefit if a world war occurs this time? What would America gain?
>> I ask you: World War I and World War II were both absurd, but why did they happen? When people have power, no one willingly gives up power, Khun Gita. Look at just the Prime Minister of Thailand—a small country's leader. Do you think anyone willingly steps down unless forced by pressure or circumstances? I ask only that.
>> Actually...
>> They should resign after two terms, but mostly, you see, they are all ousted—by mobs or by coalition partners. And don't forget, the interests of the world's superpowers are enormous, Khun Gita. It's a massive scale. And people with power at the level of a world pole—how high do you think their self-confidence is? So it can happen at any time. But my analysis, I look at the developments, Khun Gita, and they are not calming down. How is it possible that Russia fought Ukraine for 5 years, then suddenly calmed temporarily when the Middle East opened, and then when the Middle East war calmed, movements in Europe happened immediately? Drones were used to attack. In the South China Sea, as I said, out of the blue, South Korea and Japan announced full defense cooperation. China today summoned both Cambodia and Thailand to visit Beijing because China knows it needs as many allies as possible—to pressure the US into having fewer bases to attack China if war really comes. And I believe that ultimately, China will definitely come into the Strait of Malacca after dealing with its northern front. Because the trip to Kim Jong-un—I am confident today that China has assigned Kim Jong-un to handle South Korea and Japan.
>> I see. And previously, General Rangsi always mentioned that if there is going to be a clash or war, there must be military indicators—abnormal movements that allow us to analyze that a major war is coming. What indicators exist this time in each point: the Middle East, Asia near Malacca, and the European area in Ukraine?
>> Today, simply put, why did Indonesia suddenly allow the US to use its airspace? Indonesia, where the economy was once strong, now has problems. Every country now, I tell you, will be pressured in a similar timeframe. Why must Hun Sen travel to Beijing with Hun Manet? Because China sees that it is trying to get Hun Sen to step down and put Hun Manet and the heir from the military in charge, because they are preparing for this war for sure. I believe China does not trust Hun Sen. And strange is that China has summoned Hun Manet next month, around the same time as Prime Minister Anutin. Why not have Hun Manet go with his father? They are talking separately, I tell you.
>> I see.
>> This is abnormal Chinese movement because normally China does not meddle with small countries. Now they go to Beijing to meet the president personally, Xi Jinping. I believe China knows that sooner or later—as I said, scenario 1: before the midterm elections; scenario 2: after the US midterm elections. Therefore, China needs to gather as many allies as possible to cut off potential bases for attacking China in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Thailand itself, now it's up to the leader—what will we do? Will we allow the US to refuel planes at Krabi? Will we allow the US to refuel ships at Map Ta Phut in Rayong? That is a risk. I believe that when China invites Prime Minister Anutin, it will discuss this directly, just like Xi Jinping flew to Kim Jong-un.
>> General Rangsi, what do you think China wants from Thailand if a war happens?
>> I believe China wants Thailand to refuse assistance to the US, whether it's refueling planes or ships, or supplying water, or resting troops. Because China does not need Thailand as a base—its missiles can reach the US. But the US cannot; the US is far away and needs bases to support its forces, like it did in Vietnam. But this time, if the US decides to open war with China, it will be a war dozens of times bigger than Vietnam, because China is no ordinary power at this hour. Therefore, countries along the line from the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand into the South China Sea—Gita—will definitely be involved. Now it's up to you to set your country's strategy and maintain balance. Don't forget that we ourselves signed the Indo-Pacific Treaty back in 2019 (B.E. 2562). The Indo-Pacific Command is in Guam and Hawaii, with forward headquarters in Japan. It's unavoidable now; we can already see the events.
>> I see.
>> Today, each side is preparing, each side is gathering its allies, Khun Gita. If you look at the world through rose-colored glasses, you think, "Oh, nothing will happen, it will blow over." But when I analyze a worst-case scenario, I analyze the worst possible situation. If you analyze only good scenarios, you only take the good—you don't need the best, but if you analyze a bad situation, you must take the worst that can happen.
>> I see. And what about the North Asian zone near China, General Rangsi? North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan—are there any abnormal indicators now?
>> North Korea now is moving all its artillery, rocket forces, tanks, and 8 divisions of troops close to the border, ready to enter South Korea immediately, Khun Gita. This is abnormal movement. Why would South Korea suddenly form full defense cooperation with Japan? Because I believe South Korea and Japan already know they must fight Kim Jong-un for sure. And Khun Gita, think about it: Kim Jong-un is no ordinary person either, right?
>> I see.
>> Simply put, he's a hawk, doesn't know compromise, only attacks. And I see that Xi Jinping's visit made Kim Jong-un confident. Don't forget, North Korea's border is adjacent to China, so logistics are very easy. North Korea doesn't have to worry about shortage of weapons or supplies. And North Korea's active military force is almost 2 million, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> These are indicators. China itself has already ordered 1 million drones—how scary is that? I have known since 2023 (B.E. 2566) that the Chinese government ordered completion by 2027 (B.E. 2570). That's why I told you, Khun Gita, that the news I received and they confirmed shows that China sees a major war coming in 2027, as I said last time. Remember?
>> But the 14-point thing is just continuous skirmishes—simply put, it's measuring each other's strength, testing weapons, adjusting plans, learning lessons to prepare for the major war that will erupt in the three regions I mentioned, if it really happens.
>> I see. And what you mentioned about Chinese drones—is the decisive weapon this time going to be drones? Not more severe weapons like ballistic missiles or even nuclear weapons?
>> No. China is already producing ballistic missiles. Currently, they have 300,000 missiles in hand—that's not counting North Korea, Russia, or Iran. So three or four countries may have up to 1 million ballistic missiles, but not all are hypersonic, Khun Gita. They are long-range, medium-range, short-range missiles. But I still insist that no country would dare use nuclear weapons, even in a full-scale World War T. Don't forget, among 9 nuclear states, including Iran as the 10th—I believe Iran now has them too. Suppose Israel decides to strike Iran. Do you think North Korea, Russia, China, and Pakistan would not rain fire on the other superpower pole? I don't believe it. Because if you launch a second strike, are you sure it won't come back to you? No one can guarantee, right? So I said no one would dare use them. And each country's nuclear warheads combined number in the thousands, Khun Gita. You can't defend against them. You might intercept 10-20 incoming missiles, but if you face 100, how will you defend? And with hypersonic missiles that fly into the atmosphere and descend vertically, with accuracy down to centimeters, who would dare use them? I believe Trump doesn't dare, Xi Jinping doesn't dare, Putin doesn't dare, and even crazy leaders like Netanyahu or others don't dare. So I am confident no country will dare use them. But they will fight a war based on hypersonic missiles and drones primarily. With 1 million drones, do you think they can destroy all US bases in the Southeast Asian region? With 200,000-300,000 rockets, do you think the Philippines and its bases would disappear in an instant? And today, I will tell you what I know: China will use the same strategy as Iran—strike all US bases if war happens. Because they have proven that Iran's decision to attack 27 US bases in 6 countries was correct. Today, Putin made a wrong decision because he only fought in the territory he occupied, so he got hit by thousands of drones attacking Moscow. As I said, Putin's team and even the opposition have passed a resolution that Putin must go outside the country this time—destroy all NATO bases and weapons depots. The first target is Poland because NATO's large weapons depot is in Poland. This is publicly known. So I see that today we must look at all sides. We must prepare, whether in economics or geopolitics. Our country doesn't have to participate directly, but our leaders and government—whatever they think—must ensure our country does not collapse economically, especially in terms of energy and food shortages, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> We must be like a wise bird, aware of everything. And we must do our homework from now on. Time is running out. We must stand firm on our own. Because Khun Gita, think: if World War III really happens in three regions, no one can help anyone else, Khun Gita. It depends on how you make yourself useful and what you can trade or bargain with them. I believe that in a full world war, bargaining is more important than buying and selling. Why? Because everything will be in short supply.
>> I see.
>> But as I said, our country has an advantage in food. I am confident that my Thailand is the world leader in food. So you must use that potential. Sitting idle or quarreling within the country is useless. Today we must think ahead. Khun Gita, is 5-6 months from now a long time?
>> Not long at all.
>> Not long. Creating a food source or food supply chain in 5-6 months—we can do it. Rice itself takes about 6 months. Sugarcane, it's a full cycle. Vegetables take less than a month. We can build a food supply chain immediately.
>> I see.
>> So we need to think about this: we are one of the countries in the South China Sea battlefield according to the Indo-Pacific strategy. We cannot stay neutral or think nothing will happen. It will happen, and I give the probability that it will happen more than not, for the reasons I just gave: when many superpowers emerge, they cannot talk to each other, Khun Gita. In our world, we have been away from world war for 80-90 years because America was the sole superpower and no one dared to challenge. But that is no longer true, Khun Gita.
>> I see. But if a war is to start, the initiator or the warring parties must be confident that they have enough strength and will win. Looking at the preparedness of the superpowers now, are they ready for war?
>> I see it differently. The country that will start the war is the US side. Because the US side now, you must understand, both economically and militarily, is at a disadvantage after 4-5 years of proxy warfare. If they stay like this, they are waiting for death. As I said, this is hybrid warfare—information, economics, weapons—it has been going on for 5 years, Gita.
>> I see.
>> But ultimately, it will come to a breaking point because they cannot continue prolonged warfare. Both sides will collapse. So the side with less resources must strike first, like in World War II: Japan and Germany had to strike first because they were at a disadvantage.
>> I see.
>> Germany had economic problems, Japan had economic problems—they had to strike first. But they lost because the war dragged on. This time, I believe the US will strike first.
>> And what are the chances of winning?
>> Cannot answer because it depends on whether within 6 months the US can turn the game. The US has said that the weapons they will produce from now on will be cheap and efficient like those of China and Russia, because the US has learned lessons from the wars in Europe and the Middle East. And don't forget, the US is the world leader in weapons production. But what the US currently lacks is rare earth minerals. Because both missiles and drones require rare earths to fly longer, increase accuracy, and improve speed. It's a close race, Gita. So I believe that from now on, the US will accelerate this heavily. Therefore, the thousand drones that attacked Moscow are interesting, Khun Gita. Today, Europe can develop them, but I believe it's not just Ukrainian drones—it must be drones from some NATO country, whether German or French drones. There are only a few countries in NATO with advanced weapons technology. And if Russia finds out and decides that if they let it continue, Russia will be finished too—because drones have reached Moscow and destroyed apartments and oil depots, causing an energy crisis in Russia. So Russia may not be able to sit still. If the war continues like this, the probability of scenario 2? Actually, scenario 1 has a high probability. Why? Because if I were on the China-Russia side, I would strike before Trump is ready. Because if Trump wins the election this time, he will have control of both houses, approving a long war, Khun Gita. So from now on, anything can happen. But what we discuss today is that we are gathering the situation to see why it must happen. Viewers and listeners, listen and analyze—don't believe me. We analyze together. I have been gathering information for many days and assess that the probability of it happening is high.
>> I see. Now there must be questions. Gita tries to raise what viewers or investors or businessmen might think, especially about the theory of interests if war happens, or comparing with past statistics, like the Iran battlefield. General Rangsi, the US has not succeeded, has not won the Strait of Hormuz, and still cannot open it. Today they have to come to the negotiating table. So how can they start a major war? They haven't even won the Iran war.
>> Gita, admit: the Iran war started on the 28th (of what?) with the killing of Soleimani. Today the whole world is beginning to understand that the US is not the initiator—the initiator is Zionists and Netanyahu. They are stuck in a war. But this time, if it happens, I believe it will happen because they know that if they don't do something, they will both be finished.
>> I see.
>> And if the US faces severe domestic economic problems, the military will not be able to use patches to fix ships. Don't forget, in the last war, US warships had problems—Apollo? Actually, they ran in and out but didn't fight. There were problems because soldiers didn't want to fight, Khun Gita. Suddenly, fires broke out on the ship's deck. But this time, if domestic problems are really bad, and the military is ready to fight—that's a different story. The Trump faction, which has always opposed, now sees that if they don't fight, the US is finished because the US cannot set economic policy. US debt keeps increasing. I believe it may now exceed 40 trillion—40 trillion dollars.
>> So it's a different realm, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> Going to war unwillingly versus willingly are two different things. Going to war because of forced reasons—if you don't, you're finished. I believe the US military must listen. If Trump's team is rational, they can explain to the security side: "Hey, if you don't do this, the whole country collapses because debt is overwhelming." The CPI index—I believe it can be faked, but the real thing cannot be good.
>> How can it be good when war like this happens? Debt skyrockets like this. The 30-year bond yield has exceeded 5.2%? That's impossible, Gita. Even China's economy, as strong as it is, is slowing down, right? And in terms of the economic picture and American public support, General Rangsi: the American people did not support the Iran war, and Congress passed the War Resolution to oppose continuing the war. Even for small wars, America didn't support them. If a major war is launched, can Trump survive?
>> I ask: if Trump cannot make America regain control of foreign policy and global economic policy, can he survive? It only goes downhill. And don't forget that the 16 CEOs who flew to China—they must have seen that China doesn't care. Then they're finished, Gita.
>> I see.
>> And then, the information I got: why has gold been falling continuously? The most likely reason now is that many central banks are selling gold, Gita. Why? Because of a lack of liquidity in their countries—they need to sell gold to get liquidity back. The global economy is in recession, inflation is rising non-stop, energy crisis is pushing up costs, so there is an oversupply. But I believe ultimately gold must return because it is a safe haven asset. But the reason for the heavy gold drop now—I have gathered a lot of data and the most likely is...
>> I see.
>> People sell gold to create liquidity in their countries because if you hold gold, it has no interest, right?
>> I see.
>> Gold is just an asset that guarantees national stability. So when liquidity is needed, another possibility is the entry of SpaceX into the stock market—people sold gold to subscribe to SpaceX's IPO.
>> I see.
>> But today, those people are heavily in loss, right? Because SpaceX did not meet expectations. These are two major reasons. But the first is the lack of liquidity in each country, especially in the Middle East, which has suffered a lot. The Middle East holds a lot of gold. The countries that sold the most gold are said to be Turkey and Saudi Arabia. So I tell you, everything I say has cause and effect. So viewers and listeners, take the cause and effect, listen, analyze, and plan for yourselves—whether for your business or your finances.
>> I see.
>> But don't believe me.
>> I see. There is information that China has been buying gold at the highest rate in about 7 months. General Rangsi, what do you think of China's role with gold, especially if a major war is coming in the future? How do you see China's strategy?
>> I see it this way: China is the big brother of the SCO and the BRICS group. They are confident that they will use gold standard to back the digital yuan or digital currency of BRICS. They have determined that the digital currency issued will use gold standard. And the settlement of that digital yuan or digital currency can use each country's assets to settle. That means, for example, if we have rare earths, rice, or agricultural products, when it comes to deficits or surpluses, we can use that asset to settle. Or any country with forests or oil can use them—not necessarily just gold standard. But gold standard is primary. That is why the BRICS group has been heavily buying gold in recent years. Actually, gold prices haven't fallen beyond expectations because last year it rose over 100%, Khun Gita. But now it has dropped only 30%. And they believe that soon gold will return to all-time highs. Why? Because each central bank bought gold to stockpile. If gold prices fall, their assets also fall.
>> That's the reason.
>> I see. But what we have discussed here is a hypothesis based on General Rangsi's analysis from his military expertise and military indicators. Is there anything that could prevent a major war? Or anything that, if it happens, would make you change your hypothesis that war will not occur in the next 6 months?
>> If the US accepts the situation—that is, the US controls the American continent, whether it be Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, or Greenland—then it's over. Let go. Europe stays in Europe, China stays in Asia. Do you think that's possible? Divide and let each region have its own superpower, not interfering with each other. Do you think it's possible, Khun Gita?
>> If it were possible, everything would be over, right?
>> I see.
>> Xi Jinping controls Asia, Putin together with the EU controls Europe, Donald Trump controls Greenland, Venezuela, Cuba, Mexico, Brazil, etc. Do you think it's possible? India cooperates with China to take care of Asia. Do you think it's possible? If it were like that, there would be no war. But mostly, I tell you, people who rise to become superpowers look at the whole world. They don't just look at land—they also look at oceans. Don't forget that land area is less than sea area.
>> I see.
>> Look at the South China Sea. How will they clash? Just take the Philippines discussing exclusive economic zones with the continental shelf. China says, "Hey, how can you decide that? The South China Sea involves me too." So China sent naval forces out. And the US used to rule the whole world. Do you think they can accept this kind of situation? And someone like Donald Trump does not accept losing face. Observe his behavior—he always boasts about success, winning, and Iran begging, which actually...
>> I believe he is the only politician in the world who dares to speak like that.
>> I see, General Rangsi. But 100 years ago, when World War II happened, the economy was much larger and global financial systems were much more interconnected. And now there is technology, AI. If war occurs this time, how severe will the damage be to the entire economic system and the world system?
>> I see it this way: if it is not prolonged, the shock is heavy but recoverable. But if it becomes prolonged, I think we will sink deep. Because now you must understand it is a global business, a global economy. The scariest thing is the supply chain—if it breaks worldwide, that is the big problem, Gita. But people—do you understand? When people become big and powerful, they can become delusional. Look at Hun Sen, just a close example. Hun Sen has been in power for 40 years. Now he makes mistakes in everything but persists. You see?
>> I see.
>> The worst thing is that instead of stepping down and letting others come in, because he has already ruined Cambodia, he still puts his image on display, trampling Cambodia further. You see? Or the superpowers? Or dictators in the world? Why did Hitler, at that time, if he had only attacked Europe, he would have won over England and France, then stopped there, established stability and rebuilt the country—I believe Germany would have become the world leader. But why didn't Hitler stop? Hitler kept attacking Russia. What reason did he have to attack Russia? At that time, Russia was not ready to fight Hitler. And when Hitler fought Russia, at St. Petersburg (Leningrad), you know, in Russia, the front line ran to grab guns; the back line had no guns, Khun Gita, because Russia lacked weapons. When the front line was shot dead, the back line picked up the guns and continued fighting.
>> I see.
>> See, there were reasons. Why did Japan have to bomb Pearl Harbor, even though the US wanted to enter the war but had no reason? It's all possible, Khun Gita. You have to understand human nature. We can read many things, but we cannot read minds.
>> I see.
>> Husband and wife love each other for 10 years, marry for 6 months, then get divorced. Why? Because you can't read minds, right? The same applies to the world. If it doesn't happen, that's best. But if I come on your show, Khun Gita, and say, "Oh, the US, Japan, China, Russia, Iran will all talk peacefully, don't worry too much," then why would I come to speak?
>> I see.
>> What I bring up here is that I look at it: if it happens, how do we prepare? If it doesn't happen, you don't need to prepare—you live normally, right? But if it happens, how do we get ready?
>> That's exactly why we do the show and analyze, right?
>> Exactly.
>> So I tell you, don't believe me. Just listen to my reasoning. Now there is a digital footprint; you can watch reruns 100 times. Listen and see if General Rangsi is talking nonsense or if the data is correct. I welcome scrutiny. But I think if my information is useful, and today's listeners, whether few or many, take it and adjust their lives, and if it really happens, they can handle the situation, then I am still useful to Thai people in this country. That's my thought. I don't want to be famous or anything. But since I have experience, I come to talk—instead of just chatting in a coffee shop with friends and then going home. What use is that?
>> But don't be obsessed.
>> Don't come believing me. I myself used to like listening to people analyze. If someone gave false information, I would stop listening to them. I gave them no more than 3 chances. Similarly, if I talk nonsense, you don't have to listen to me again from now on, right? But if what I say seems possible, then follow me. I am happy to find information that is very hard to obtain, Khun Gita. Analyzing future events is extremely difficult.
>> It's extreme. Some people don't understand that this is not bragging or nonsense. Future events are incredibly hard to predict. I think even Xi Jinping, Putin, Khamenei, or even Donald Trump don't know what will happen ahead. They only have partial decision-making power because it depends on factors, components, environment, and pressure of problems, right? Only then can we analyze. Now, you and I, Khun Gita, are like spectators watching a chess game. The player sometimes doesn't know his mistake, but the observer sees it.
>> I see.
>> Because the observer is not stressed and can see both sides, right? But most people with power see only their own side, Khun Gita.
>> I see.
>> That's why a coin has two sides. If you only make one side, why make two sides? Right?
>> I see, General Rangsi. Thank you very much for gathering information and preparing analysis so well every time. Many things you analyzed have happened in sequence. But now, regarding preparation for the public, businesspeople, and investors: we naturally want a better quality of life, good returns on investment, and to manage risk. At present, it still seems there are opportunities—the stock market is making new highs, technology investment continues, business continues. But the future holds major risks. What advice do you have for us not to miss opportunities while managing the risks of what might happen?
>> For risky investments, Khun Gita, you must be light-handed. Don't forget: the stock market goes up and down within hours or minutes. If you have long-term money, it's okay. But if you day trade, I don't agree.
>> I see.
>> It's too risky. If you get caught, what will you do? You lose everything. But if you have long-term money, as stock investors have said for a long time, if you don't sell, you don't lose, right?
>> I see.
>> Stocks go up and down, right? For safe-haven assets like gold, you should invest in it. Hold gold, but you must have cold money—long-term money—not borrowed money or paper gold. If you play futures, you're finished. Simply put today, you must invest in assets with the lowest risk. Don't think about profit yet. You must think about how to sustain yourself first. You must look at which businesses are essential for living—things that will be needed in these events. For example, food—it's okay to develop or prepare, but luxury items? Right now, let me tell you, someone offered to sell me beautiful diamonds with certificates, Khun Gita, and they agreed to sell at 50% off, but I wasn't interested because it's a luxury. Today, with this economic condition and unstable global situation, you must hold cash as tightly as possible. Cash is the weapon to fight this crisis—it is equivalent to hypersonic missiles of 20 kinds, Gita. Because if you don't have cash now, you are in trouble. Why? Banks won't lend, right? And if sanctions work and the theory of 20% purchasing power remains, who has long financial endurance, Khun Gita? If your financial endurance is short, you will run out of working capital and collapse quickly. But if you have long endurance, you can hold on. If 80% fall away, you remain 20% and can live comfortably because purchasing power comes back to you. You must see the big picture: what is the crisis affecting? 1) Cost of living, 2) Income, 3) Savings. Today, it's every man for himself, Khun Gita. No one can help anyone. You see? Suppose the government wants to help. Thailand had the "Thai Help Thai" program, but now it's over. I ask, where will the government find money to keep helping? Because we ourselves have fiscal problems. And some estimate that by October we will run out of steam, Khun Gita. So we must think: what is your business? What is your cash flow? What are your sales? Today, you must be in the 20% because 80% have no purchasing power. Only 20% purchasing power remains. You must figure out how to survive. Because the fight in this world of crisis is brutal, believe me. It's the law of the jungle. The weakest are killed, destroyed, eaten, right? Only the strong survive on the savanna. Today, in the economic world, it's the same. So those without savings are the most worrying. Our country has 68 million people; the numbers are clear: 30 million people have no savings, Khun Gita—10 million families today.
>> I see.
>> Now, if this crisis really happens, what do we do? If it comes, as I, Rangsi, have said, it will come into the South China Sea, they will have to fight like this. Our government—how will it prevent our people from starving and from being hit by hypersonic missiles? That's the big question, Khun Gita. Because you saw it: Iran and the US talked, negotiated in Doha, then tomorrow they shoot again. Just watch. Israel bombed Lebanon again. How will it end? I just ask that.
>> Exactly.
>> So we must prepare. If it reaches our region, what will we do, Gita? What I am worried about—because I myself live in this country. Where can I go? Even if someone hired me to move abroad, I wouldn't go. Why? If a real World War III happens, it will engulf the whole world, right? So we are best in our homeland. We are familiar, have relatives, friends. We must hold this ground. I have already decided: I will fight to the death with 68 million Thais. Now, even if someone offered me 10 million to fly abroad, I wouldn't go. Because if we go, we become second-class citizens. If war breaks out, we can't come back. Right? Many people invited me abroad—I turned them all down now.
>> I see.
>> Because I see the situation. It is frightening. And our economy itself is frightening. Do you know? Today, driving on the roads, houses with fences have "For Sale" signs. I see a lot—more than during COVID-19. Houses with fences—what does that show? The economy has spread to the upper-middle class. If in the next 3 months, it spreads to the upper class, oh my, then it's complete. The lower class is not even worth mentioning. Today, I meet people. During COVID-19, I met people who sold 5 (houses?), couldn't sell 5? 550? Now, I ask 10 people, all 10 say they can't sell. Silence. Some say they've never seen this in 40 years.
>> I see.
>> So it all adds up. Now we see the full picture. It all comes together. Both war and economy follow. And it's global this time. COVID-19 had a known timeframe; this one has no known timeframe, right? So I say, if it must happen, I hope it happens and ends quickly. But the chance that it won't happen—I really don't see it today.
>> But General Rangsi, regarding the timeline you mentioned earlier—6 months from now, or maybe sooner. If the most tense period passes, is there a chance that we can avoid this war because the superpowers actually want to divide the world's cake? After that, war won't happen, and next year we won't have to fear a world war?
>> Well, if they can divide the cake, I believe it will be peaceful. But if each region has its own superpower, I ask: can countries like us talk to superpowers? That depends on the skill of our government. How will we negotiate? What policy or roadmap will we have?
>> I see.
>> Whether we are under their thumb or not—that is the problem for small countries. If the superpowers divide the cake, then the problem falls on small countries like us. So what then?
>> Life from now on is not going to be easy. I see it very clearly. Today, thank you very much, General Rangsi, for gathering information and analyzing it in such depth for us to prepare. Next time, I hope to invite General Rangsi again. For fans of General Rangsi who keep following, if you want to hear in-depth analysis and big-picture geopolitical views, please join us at the Thai Global Summit on July 5th. Gita has invited General Rangsi to speak on stage at around 11:00 AM. You can meet at True Digital Park. This event is free—you can register and come to hear knowledge from General Rangsi and other investment and global asset experts. For today, I sincerely thank you, General Rangsi. Thank you very much. Goodbye.
>> Goodbye, Khun Gita, and viewers and listeners at home. Goodbye. Today, General Rangsi has a new prediction, but it must be said that it comes from long-term in-depth data collection and analysis of military indicators. He analyzes the security aspects of the convergence of superpower groups. The key triggers and risks for a major war in the next 5-6 months, with the turning point being the US midterm elections, are about the rise of new superpowers like China and the gradual decline of the old superpower like the US in terms of economy, security, and foreign affairs. The challenge of a new superpower emerging is something that, based on history—World War I, World War II, or throughout global development—will be hard to accept. When combined with economic pressure, political pressure, and debt pressures, it could ignite conflict and war. This analysis is from a military perspective, focusing on abnormal movements in the Russia-Ukraine war, in Europe, and in China's efforts to consolidate key allies like North Korea and Cambodia. These are what General Rangsi sees as multiple military indicators of power consolidation and troop movements, which seem... [clears throat]
This will pave the way for preparing for a major confrontation. This is what is the worst-case scenario, or the worst possible outlook. When it will happen is the turning point, which is the US midterm elections this November. It's just a matter of whether it happens before or after. If it happens before, the timeframe will be less than 5 months from now. If it happens after, it will be from November onwards. However, there are things that can be avoided. If all parties decide to stay within their spheres of influence: America controls North America, Europe, Russia divides control in the European region, China controls Asia. But if they cannot agree, conflict may be difficult to avoid, both from a military perspective and a political science perspective. This is an analysis for everyone to prepare and not be complacent about the future that will occur in this short period. Managing life, managing business, managing financial expenses, those are personal factors that we must always assess the risks for. On the government's side, that is the big challenge: if a major war or major conflict must occur, where will Thailand's status stand? And how will the entire nation's people survive this potentially very bad crisis? As for this live stream, time is up. I hope everyone has received useful information. We will meet again in the next live stream. Guitar, you and the team bid farewell to everyone. Goodbye. [Music]