Long-Term Stock Charts

I'm charting, man. Dan with the chart guys. In this live stream, we're going to be talking about a lot of long-term time frame chart zooming out, bigger picture stuff. Ideally, trying to position for multiple month swing trades, as well as a a macro outlook of the broader market. In terms of our all-time highs, still on the table later this year? Are we about to pull back for multiple years? And things that we're going to use to help us answer that question. I appreciate you joining me. Likes and shares are great. It's Thursday, but it feels like a Friday with the holiday tomorrow. Got my local barrel-aged dry cider. We're going to relax and unwind together and look at a bunch of charts.

And as we get into it, look at that. I love this character. This is a a professional billiards player, but he doesn't use a pool cue. He uses a sledgehammer. I think that's pretty cool. So we've got a free webinar guide. This is essentially uh a breakdown of one of the trades that we're going to talk about. Uh we've done a bunch of these long-term pattern videos over the last two years and posting a link to that in the chat room. It's essentially uh a guide going over the step-by-step of how we utilize the different longer term time frames to set up the most likely scenario for this trade and then how it played out. And also in that uh sheet that you will get emailed is this longer-term timeframe guide. We'll go over that in just a moment.

Before we get to that uh I put all of the prior videos of the long-term stuff on a playlist here. And I highly suggest going through and watching all of those. And the reason for that is because there's really good continuity. You know some of them were looking at a pattern and saying "Watch how this breaks." And then the next one we're checking in and saying "Okay, we've got the break. Let's see what kind of follow-through we get." And then it's a it's a really good exercise in which time frames we're using, how it plays out. Uh so I would suggest if you have the time, you know these aren't really long videos. This stream is going to be longer. And feel free to ask any questions as we go. I'll get to those at the end. But uh you know if you got a couple hours, go through these videos one by one, posting uh in the the playlist in the chat room, go through those one by one and uh I think it will be good lessons.

A lot of the the setups that we were looking at played out really well in terms of the amount of follow-through. I mean we had those monthly equilibriums on Costco and CCJ that just exploded to all-time highs. But uh essentially this webinar we're going to be going over a little bit of the educational aspect in terms of how the different time frames relate to each other. You hear me all the time talking about the five-minute time frame sets up the hourly chart, but we're going to do the longer term ones. Uh so we know what to be looking for. Then I'm going to go through a lot of the setups that we were looking at in the last live stream. And that live stream was to end 2024. So that was three and a half months ago. And then I'm going to look at patterns that I'm looking at into the future, which are mostly dividend plays. I've been focused on dividend names a little bit just because all right, if we got broader market fear, you know I want to establish some kind of dividend portfolio. And that's one mistake that I made in 2022. I had some good entries for long-term swings, Microsoft and SPY. Uh but I was waiting for one more leg down to establish a long-term portfolio of dividend plays and we didn't get it. And so that was my one regret is not grabbing those dividend plays. So I'm now a bit more prepared this time around.

So let's get on to the educational aspect first. So the trend change checklist. And if you are in a bullish environment, again we have one of these that's the shorter term time frames. This is the longer term version. So if you are in a bullish environment, so long-term uptrends, we use the daily for the weekly pivots. So you'll be in a daily downtrend to look for the weekly higher low. If you're in a weekly downtrend, you're going to look for the monthly higher low. And again it's a a weekly trend change shaping up. So we're looking for a reversal pattern, whether it's a falling wedge, an inverse head and shoulders, something that's showing us a bullish reversal pattern is forming on the shorter term time frame to form the higher low on the longer term time frame. The two-week trend change can mark a three-month higher low. And for those of you that have been watching for the last couple of years, that is what helped me go from bearish in 2022 to bullish in 2023 when the S&P 500 confirmed a two-week inverse head and shoulders. And we'll look at that in just a moment. And then the monthly, of course, you know the the 2022 bare market was marked by a monthly downtrend confirming, and we then stayed in a monthly downtrend for a year, and that can help mark six-month or 12-month higher lows.

And again, one of the things that you don't want to be doing, you know as a bull is just always zooming out to one time frame longer and making an excuse, well I'll just keep holding because we're going to look for a six-month higher low. No, you can use those time frames to establish a game plan in advance. But you don't want to be using them as justifications. I should have had a stop-loss and now I don't, but I'm going to keep holding because we could still form a yearly higher low. So just ensure that you're using these to be planning and not to justify bag holding. All right, so let's get to the first little example. Again, the the S&P 500 two-week inverse head and shoulders. And I rarely use these time frames, right? I only started essentially the last few years started with these long-term time frames. You know I was on the monthly was the longest term that I would go, and now I'm using three-month, six-month, 12-month. And it's because the 2022 2022 was the first real bare market that I've ever experienced, having trading for 14 years. And it was this big enough bounce, I thought we were going to form a higher low. Nope. One more lower low, but no follow-through bounce. And then that right there told us to shift our mindset. Uh and that marked the bottom. And again that was a three-month higher low on the S&P 500. And no red flags. I mean from the C vid V-shaped recovery, the amount of retracement that the bare market saw wasn't even 50%. So I say bare market like this because again, you know you've heard me say 100 times, I really dislike the definition of a bare market, 20% drop off the highs. That's way too vague and elementary a gauge to be using. And I know why CNBC does it, but um you got to have the long-term lower highs and lower lows. And again, you know it's hard to look at this chart and say "Yeah, there were a few bare markets in there." Like what are you talking about? That's straight up with very brief periods of consolidation.

But look at where we stand right now. Are there any red flags on this three-month chart? The answer for me is no. There are not any red flags. Can that change? Yes. We know we've had we've got all the headlines. We got the tariffs and all that. We've got significant fast weakness. Again, the size of the pullback that we've seen in the broader market in 2025 is not unusual. The speed at which we saw the size of the pullback is what made it unusual. So again, you look at the three-month chart, no red flags yet. And that's why for me the most important time frame as we look towards Q2 Q3 2025 is do we confirm the monthly downtrend, the fast hard drops that we have had that lack confirmed monthly downtrends, and even the CVID dump was one of them. If you don't confirm the monthly downtrend, you're going to eventually V-shaped recovery back to that all-time high. 2022 was different because it was more of a slow grind with a monthly downtrend, but along the way just quick pullbacks that V-shaped to higher highs. So at this point in time we've seen enough on the charts that have me step back and say okay, I need to prepare for the possibility that this is a longer term top forming. But the way I'm analyzing and approaching the market is I am very open to being back at all-time highs later this year. And I am very open to being a prolonged pullback for, you know, into 2026. So okay, I we can either go up or down. Great. How does that help me? Number one, it keeps me agile in the sense that I'm not married to a bias. And number two, it keeps me open and seeking new information. Every week I'm getting new information that's going to help me determine the probabilities of whether we're going to recover and just be a three-month bull flag similar to the size of the drop last time around, a lot quicker, but could definitely do the same thing. You know I had people laughing at me. I had money man. There's a money man. I'm thinking of one guy on YouTube where I looked him up on LinkedIn after this because he was laughing at me for calling this a monthly cup and handle on the NASDAQ. You can always find someone who thinks that continuation is going to be ridiculous. That was a cup and handle, and it was a good call, and the we can definitely see three-month uptrend continuation.

The big tell and the most important information that I'm going to get middle of this year is do we confirm a monthly downtrend as the result of the next bounce? Is that it? Is that the fear low and we're going to recover for the next three months, or do we bounce significantly enough where everybody says "Ah, we're out of the the fear. It's going to be okay." And then we roll over. And again that's that's why for me a bare market needs a time factor, the grind down where you're just sucking the life out of the bulls and the fake out factor. In 2022 the NASDAQ had multiple bounces where we went straight up on those bounces almost V-shape, right? Just look in hindsight. You can imagine look a double bottom. Look at that V-shaped move. Oh, bottoms in. Fear's over. 17% straight up. We roll over to a lower low. Another one. Not as straight up, but wow. Big 24% bounce off the lows. That's got to be it. Nope. We roll over to a lower low. That's a bare market. It's It's when you when the bulls keep thinking they're out of the woods and oh my god, we gave it all back. And here we go again. So that can happen this time around. And that's what I'm watching for. So again it's one week at a time. We're still chopping around and digesting the Trump pump candle from last week. Um, you know if that breaks bull, we're going to zoom out and scout a weekly lower high to be the result of that bounce. But again, long-term patterns, I care most about the monthly. Do we confirm the monthly downtrend to tell us it's more like 2022? Or do we fail to confirm any monthly downtrend that tells us it's more like the CVID dump V-shape or you know the last August dump V-shape? And we're going to be watching that closely. Let's let's zoom out one more time. Big big picture. Look at the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ on the six-month time frame. EMA 12 is my guide. Why? Because we've been holding this for 15 years. So I can say something is drastically different. If you've been watching these videos, you've watched me go time frame by time frame. Okay, something is different from the last six months of bull market. We need to be a little bit cautious. Okay, something is different from the last two years of bull market. We had both of those signals fired to us in this bare market over not a bare market in this drop the last three months. And so my big picture, you know a signal for me that top is in for years years is going to be losing six-month EMA 12 because every pullback for the last 15 years has held it. And you can see we didn't get too close to it. If we were going to have that come into play on this current drop, we would need another 20% 18% of downside from where we stand right now. And so if we confirm a monthly downtrend, that's then going to be in play. And then we're going to be paying very close attention if that happens. So if you're talking like you know, do I want to be out of the market for a while? You know you keep hearing people talk about the loss decade. We're going to trade sideways in equities for the ne next decade. Okay, lose monthly EM, lose six-month EMA 12 and I'll start to believe it. And the NASDAQ is the same thing. KQ six-month time frame just extremely strong. And again, losing it, closing below it will tell us this is different for the first time in 15 years. And for me being a 14-year trader right now, it will tell me I've never seen anything like this in my career and I need to be paying extra attention and be extra careful because I've never experienced an environment like this.

So that's the long-term guide. Couple other things I want to check in on. Gold. So gold is in euphoria, blue sky breakout. Do we want a long gold now? No. We're in euphoria. You know we were looking bullish the metals when we were back here battling resistance and finally breaking out over a triple top way before the euphoria. You don't want a long euphoria. Can we keep running? Absolutely. Blue sky breakout as we know can get very extended. But if I'm looking at this chart and saying "Okay, I want a long-term entry on gold." At a bare minimum I need to look for a monthly pullback. And ideally I want to see a three-month pullback. And again you've heard me say many times, potentially that one of the superpowers that I or we have as a trader is we can set up a clear criteria of what we need for the trade to come to us. And if it doesn't, screw it and move on to the next one and find the next trade setup. And that keeps us picky and that keeps us getting exactly what we want. It's like dating, right? We have our criteria. You know if you want to a certain kind of life, you have uh you may be picky with with who you're willing to date. And it should be the same thing with stocks. So you know gold, will I be interested in looking for a three-month high or low? Absolutely. But we are in euphoria, and so definitely not looking long at this point in time. Need to see bigger picture consolidation. Silver. Silver's still rangebound. Silver going way back. Let's go six-month. We've got this massive double top and we've been I mean this equilibrium. Let's go longer. Let's go 12-month. Let's go eight. Can we even do 18? No. It's an equilibrium on a massive time frame. I mean we've been forming a tightening range for 25 year 45 years. High low double top essentially. Did it get higher high 48? Yeah, barely a higher high. That's a double top for me. Higher low. So do we fail $49 and just keep tightening up for another six years? Maybe. But right now the bulls have their short-term control, of course. So I'm watching the key for me on silver is the double top that we just had, which is the highest level that we've seen in 13 years. So I'm watching for the possibility that gold chills out and cools off and silver gets some rotation. But uh yeah, that's that's pretty much what I'm looking for is you know if you tell me are you interested in gold or silver, you know I've got exposure to both in positions that I'm not selling for decades. Those are you know buried out somewhere with a treasure map, but um silver would have my attention just because it's not nearly as extended and there could be some power behind a leg up over $35 to play a little bit of catch-up.

We're going to talk about crypto real quick and then again we're going to touch on a bunch of the patterns that we were watching from the last video. Many of them were bearish because we were in euphoria and so I definitely didn't want to only be looking long knowing we're in euphoria. We're going to pull back. So Bitcoin, last video we were right here and we had a bearish monthly candle and I suggested that we may be shaping up monthly consolidation and we're going to be looking to monthly EMA 12 because monthly EMA 12 held the last test. That's my first target that I would look for. And it also was lining up with previous resistance which now needs to hold support. This was perfection in terms of you know a target. And a a lot of I'm not going to say you know I'm the only one calling for this. A lot of crypto Twitter, a lot of people were you know looking at the 70s as the back test area for obvious reasons. But uh we had the bearish reversal monthly candle. We weren't done just yet. That's where I sold 20% of my position. I've been holding for seven years just to take a little bit off into Euphoria. Now we're pulling back. We're looking for the monthly higher low and a monthly higher low in Bitcoin and MSTR are both top watches for me into May. This is a major focus of mine and I've been looking at swing trades that I want to grab uh this you know from the fear last week and I've been making a list and checking it twice and two of the names out of seven are crypto names, GME and MSTR, and so I've made entries into both of those in the past few days and you know I was you know someone said I see what you're doing and posted you know the Bitcoin icon. I didn't even realize I was doing it, two Bitcoin names. Uh it's just because they're showing relative strength is why I was interested. So the fact that two Bitcoin stocks are showing relative strength to both Bitcoin and the NASDAQ that heightens my awareness of okay, I know a monthly high or low is the most likely scenario. It's time to be paying attention. And if you're a Bitcoin bull, you want to see gold top out because they they've been inverse. Bitcoin and gold have been inverse to each other on a macro big picture time frame for the last couple of years. And so you want to see gold consolidate on the monthly and Bitcoin head back up to test the all-time high. And so that's what I'm watching for into the middle of this year. And the statement is you know if you're looking to be a bull, an aggressive bull, you're saying that's got to be the monthly higher low or I'm wrong. If we dip down to a fresh low, it doesn't ruin the chart, but it ruins my thesis. That tells me I was wrong because I would you know the setup is that's the monthly higher low and we're heading back into the 90,000s from here. Okay. As far as Bitcoin longer term, I'm not longer term than the monthly at this point. You know the three-month okay, there's an uptrend there, but it doesn't give me any information that the monthly doesn't give me. The pivots on the three-month are just the monthly higher lows. Ethereum is very different. This is the last crypto we're going to look at. But look at the six-month for Ethereum. It's a beautiful equilibrium for years. Massive breakout, higher low, lower high. We're looking for a six-month higher low compared to 879. And it is entirely possible that we form that and keep tightening up into 2026 and beyond. You know just think about three candles, three more candles tightening up. You know set a higher low bounce for a candle or two. Now you're talking we're in mid 2026 and this was a pattern that I was looking for to potentially happen on Bitcoin. It didn't. The ETF shot it up to all-time highs, fortunately for bulls. But there's a lot of altcoins that are in tightening long-term patterns, and Ethereum is the best example of it. So you know I love equilibriums and a lot of the success of the patterns that we've been tracking in these long-term charts videos were long-term tightening equilibriums that finally broke after years and years of forming. And so ETH is definitely you know start watching now and we're going to be talking about this if it forms as we're hoping. We're going to be talking about this for a long time as we look for the higher low first and then eventually probably a lower high.

All right. So now let's do a recap of the last video. So we just talked about Bitcoin. The setup was the monthly bearish candle. We're looking for monthly consolidation. This is the target. Another one was ANF. There were a couple bare patterns we were looking at. And ANF the thesis was three-month time frame just went straight up thousands of percent. Abercrombie and Fitch. So if you go straight up 1,300% in the span of two years, no what was that? 21 months, two years, you're going to pull back. You're going to look for bigger picture consolidation. So my thesis is I'm looking for three-month consolidation on a very extended chart. So then what? We zoom in and we look for signs that that consolidation is shaping up. And we were on the two-week time frame for this equilibrium. This is you know I I really like how I've been trading over the last couple of years and this is my one of my bigger fumbles because it was just a beauty. This equilibrium was so clear and I was right on queue with everything and I didn't give enough wiggle room. We had a it's a you know I kicked myself in hindsight. What are you doing, you fool? The the resistance level was 16396. We broke it by less than a dollar. I have no business stopping out on less than 1% of slippage. It's not like it would have been a big loss. It wasn't a huge position. It would have been a very worthwhile position when we finally rolled over. I shorted probably upper 150s and it was just it was my mindset was I'm focusing on other things. It's a smaller position. I don't care as much. Uh but again, you know you ask me what's my biggest regret in the last two years of trading? It's just a dumb mistake to let this winner go because once we finally broke this equilibrium bear, I mean the bear break it just saw it. It couldn't have gone better in terms of the follow through. You know I got a great entry. Even if you get an entry on support breaking, that's a 50% drop in what? One month? Two month? Three months? 50%? That's huge for a bear. So I left a ton on the table and we are always going to make mistakes. You'll be a 38-year veteran trader and you will make a mistake that you've made plenty of times in the past. But that's what keeps the game fun in terms of always learning. You know if we had learned, we learn everything in the game, it gets boring. So played out really well. Hope somebody out there got it because I sure didn't. Next one we were looking at was oil, yearly multiple inside bars. And I was able to say oil is going to see volatility pick up in 2025. Why was I able to say that? Because we had multiple yearly inside bars. So here's 2022, tighter range, 2023, tighter range, 2024. All right, inside bars. So I'm looking for a yearly lower high to be the result of the bounce. We had the massive bounce from negative during CVID times. I'm looking for the lower high. Then I'm looking for a pullback to a yearly higher low. All right, let's zoom in. We were watching a two-month equilibrium here that was forming for a very significant prolonged period of time, years and years. And we topped out at resistance. I'm adjusted right now. I'm on the futures chart, but I'm adjusted and we topped out rejecting from resistance by less than 1%, and then we rolled over. Now currently it's a bare break with no follow-through. So if you're a bear, you really want a weekly lower high and fresh lows because if we bear break and then get right back above those levels, we're not going to anticipate much follow through. And those those levels here, you know that's the kind of setup where if you're entering on the bare break, you got to be taking a little bit of profit.

It was a decent enough move. Taking a little bit of profit, 10%. You know, trim a bit so that if it does bounce right back, uh, the last thing you want to do is go red on a trade that you have a a solid green move initially in. Which is why, again, I always, as my style, trim a little bit, lower my my break even, lower my cost basis. And uh, at this point I would call this a bare break with no follow-through. So oil bears definitely need another leg down. Otherwise, it could be a very quick yearly higher low forming, but a nice initial follow-through, 10% on that two-month tightening range. I would say that's disappointing though. If you're going to tighten up for years, again, you know, it's too too early to call it. We're not going to say the move's over, but if you're going to tighten up for years, you definitely are looking for more than 10%.

We broke multiple levels, but we didn't break the lowest level of the last couple of years, which is down at 5245. We held that by, you know, 4% or something. Another one we were looking at, we were looking at PEP as a bear, Pepsi. I was looking at Pepsi as a bear because it was the first time that we were closing below three-month EMA 12 in 15 years. That stands out to me. We have a three-month downtrend. That's a bare market. Three-month downtrend. The all-time high was hit over a year ago. And we are going to be watching the, we got a three-month time downtrend to be watching. We got a monthly downtrend to be watching. But what about the six-month? Are we just going to look for a six-month higher low? So again, when when you have a bull market for 15, 20 years like we have here, there's always a time frame where we're going to look for a higher low.

So let's just say, okay, Pep, Pepsi broke support, but I need, I'm a bear, but I need to be cautious. Let me put on my bull glasses. If this chart's going to surprise me and turn around, what would it look like? It would look like a falling wedge. If we get a monthly falling wedge, it can shape up a longer term higher low. Now I don't have high conviction it's a falling wedge right now. Could just be a channel like I have here, but need to pay attention to it because as of right now we've got the initial bear break straight into a bounce and another bear break. Currently no follow through. If I'm a bear, I want to see a break of 135 to follow through. But this is again, you know, just a good example of when a chart is putting in a long-term top. I mean, look at the year. This is the yearly now. Yearly consolidation. And we've got, we're on, obviously there's a lot of year left, but we're on our third red year in a row, and not many things, not many major stocks out there are putting in multiple red years in a row at this point.

And again, I'm just mentally preparing myself. I like looking at a chart like this and imagining what if that's SPY? What if SPY forms a three-month downtrend and is red for multiple years in a row? I've never experienced that. I have to look at charts and imagine that scenario so it doesn't catch me off guard. There's going to be a lot of newer traders who've been trading three years, four years, five years, that when there is a real bare market, it's going to wipe them out because you can't, I mean, there are traders right now that can't even fathom having two to three years of red in a row in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. And you know, you look back over the last 60 years, you should definitely have that as part of your game plan to be prepared for. So I don't trade Pepsi. I haven't ever traded Pepsi, but I like to use this as my, okay, this is what it could look like at some point in time. Get familiar with this.

All right, Meta. We're going to go two more here. Uh, Boeing, BA, is still in equilibrium to be watching. Look at this bad boy, four-month time frame, just to smooth it out a bit. All-time high, low, lower high, higher low, lower high, and now a very important support test down at 113. We got down to 128. So still 10% plus above it. But this is one where I hope we keep tightening. I have no position right. If I don't have a position, I want a long-term equilibrium to get as tight as possible, because that means that when it breaks, I will likely get the a greater amount of follow-through. Why is that? Because let's just say we just V-shape and break resistance. By the time we break resistance, we're going to be extended on a lot of shorter term time frames. If we were to instead tighten up with another higher low and another lower high, next thing you know we're mid-2026 and we're on the verge of breaking this pattern. The break of the pattern, which will be a signal for entry, we won't be extended on the monthly or the weekly time frame. If we're tight enough, and again, just examples, Costco from one of the prior videos, this is just perfection. You just can't get tighter than that. It's awesome. That is what I always want the equilibrium to look like. And then we break and it's slow going to start and then we explode. And CCJ was another one. Beautiful equilibrium. Get tighter. Get tighter. Get tighter. Let's go. Maybe a monthly head to shoulders. Got to watch CCJ for a possible monthly head and shoulders, which would be putting in a long-term top if that were to happen. But BA, I hope we tighten up into mid-2024 and then we finally get a break of a pattern that has been forming for five to six years at that point.

So again, we have thousands of charts that we can look at. Uh, this is just one where, again, when's the last time I've traded BA? I cannot remember. It's been years. So I'm trading all the other things that I'm used to, Tesla and all this, and BA could be the trade of my month or the trade of my quarter or the trade of my year at some point in the future. And it only takes one. And that's why you just, you know, I talk about the conveyor belt of trades where, okay, if I'm looking for a monthly setup, I'm paying closer attention than if I'm looking for a three-month setup, because it's going to happen sooner. Four-month time frame. All right, you're way over here. I'm sticking it on the top shelf. I'll keep checking in every couple weeks, but I know that this isn't going to be in play. If it's going to be the setup that I want and if it's going to come to me, I'm not going to take this trade. But my, what am I planning a year in advance? Yeah, maybe. I mean, it doesn't take a whole lot of effort. Okay, tightening range. I'm not going to act right now. If you keep tightening up another year, I'll be very interested. I mean, that's that really it takes 15 minutes. You know, if you're very comfortable with technical analysis, you can put in 15 minutes into that chart, establish that game plan, set it away, and then know to check in once a month. Conveyor belt of trades. One that didn't work out that I almost got was Meta. Same concept as ANF. Three-month time frame. You're going to V-shape 750% in two years as a major stock, you're going to pull back on the longer term time frame. I was looking for a three-month pullback and I was looking at, okay, so my thesis is three-month consolidation is coming. We zoom in. I went to the weekly and I was watching this potential weekly w, weekly wising wedge, and this weekly wising wedge broke bull, and then I took my eye off the ball because it wasn't exactly what I wanted. In hindsight, we had 20 green days in a row, record right at the top before we absolutely roll over and give me everything that I wanted as a bear before we dropped 35%. That's the way it goes sometimes, you know, I was looking to reject from resistance and roll over. We broke out, got as extended as possible, and that was a climax top. Uh, so again, a good lesson, didn't make any money on Meta as a bear. Knew to be looking for three-month consolidation, but again, you know, I could have lost a bunch of money too. What if I assumed it was a rising wedge that was going to break bear and I shorted at 650 and next thing you know for the next two and a half weeks I'm very quickly down 15%? That would be way too much risk to take on. But we got the three-month. So now what? Meta will absolutely form a three-month higher low. Now again, for people less experienced, okay, how does that help me? The three-month can happen at $480, or the three-month higher low can happen at $380. Absolutely. But when you know the most likely scenario, you know what time frame to focus on, you then know, know to zoom in and watch for the sign of a bullish pattern forming. And you have to see something happen on the shorter term time frame where you then say that's either the three-month higher low or I'm wrong. And right now I have nothing on the weekly chart that has me thinking that a three-month higher low is being established. So again, it's another one that I'm going to keep an eye on for a longer term time frame at some point this year, but not just yet. You know, I need a falling wedge. I need an inverse head and shoulders. You know, there's often times where I'm I'm glad to miss a bounce. Give me a big weekly bounce and I'll say "Okay, bulls proved it." And now the most likely scenario is a weekly higher low. I'll scout that weekly higher low. I'll say "That's either the three-month higher low or I'm wrong." And then if we confirm the weekly uptrend, three-month higher low set, and I was correct. So don't feel like if you miss an initial move that it's game over. There's turkeys raiding my garage as we speak. We'll let them have it. Corn thieves. There are ah, just lost it. Hear him talking [ __ ] All right, we're moving on. Weekly big bounce. So yeah, if you miss the initial big move, it doesn't mean the trade's over. It just means you've reestablished the game plan. Maybe you're going to be entering from higher. Um, maybe use a smaller position size if your stop loss is going to be further away. There are ways to adjust. All right, so those are all the setups. Oh no, XLV. So one more. And again, this is the the, we've got the webinar guide that I'm posting in the chat room here. And this is a written review of what I'm about to go over fairly quickly. So from the last video, the highlight of last video, go watch it and look at how we can tell the future is XLV. So I started XLV on the yearly time frame. And I don't look at any yearly charts, and this was the first one that I had high conviction. I looked at XLV and I said this is the most bearish yearly candle that we've seen in 15 years. We've got a 16-year stair step aside from the Covid little lower wick flush that broke it. We've been going straight up in healthcare for 16 years. And you can look back at, you know, how much of that is Obamacare and all that that was going on, but really it's, you know, a multitude of factors obviously. Anyways, annual candle. I'm looking for yearly consolidation. What do I need to see for yearly consolidation to take place? I need a monthly downtrend to confirm at a minimum. At that point in time we were right here. And I was saying, okay, that's a solid pullback. That's enough of a pullback for me to scout a lower high next bounce. If we bounce from right here, there is a potential for a monthly head and shoulders. And if I'm going to be looking short here, I'm going to be looking for a monthly lower high for a potential entry. And then if we confirm the head and shoulders, yearly consolidation will be underway. That was the thesis. And so shortly after the video, we started a bounce for multiple months. We topped out. And why I love this example so much is, okay, we're looking for a monthly lower high to be the result of this bounce. We got to zoom in. I've got my thesis. Monthly lower high most likely. Let's zoom in. Two-day time frame. This was, I don't often use the two-day. This is just where I found the most clarity. But we then had a two-day time frame forming a head and shoulders. It was a baby head and shoulders inside a mama head and shoulders. The two-day head and shoulders confirms setting the monthly lower high and then falls right through neckline support to confirm the monthly head and shoulders right after the two-day head and shoulders. And you'll see that sometimes where you get, you know, equilibriums very often form shorter term time frames, then they break, then you zoom out, and then it's a longer term equilibrium. But uh, this was just a beautiful head and shoulders within a head and shoulders, and uh, we then followed through, and so yearly consolidation is underway. This is the second time in 16 years that we've broken the low of the previous year in the health care sector. Bigger picture, are we looking now? Now, now what? Now maybe we form a three-month head and shoulders, right? I don't know. But I do know that I am looking for a bit more pullback on the yearly time frame. You know, I would say target 11s, 115 to 120, the lows of these prior couple of years that found some support. I'd say that's a, you know, a a what's the word I'm looking for? Mild, reasonable target. And so the the health care sector has been the weakest major sector. I mean, look at the financial sector. Are we close to breaking the low of last year? No, it's not anywhere close. Look at the three-month for healthcare. No. Three-month for financials. Is there any red flag on this three-month chart? Absolutely not. You can't go straight up. If we just form a three-month higher low in the financial sector, this is an extremely healthy longer term chart. Again, this is why I'm open to, yes, I know the headlines, yes, I know terrible everything, but I'm open to bullish continuation in the market. I don't have enough information yet to make a high conviction call if the all-time highs are set for the year or not. That's why the monthly is so important for me. I love that healthcare example. That's one where you you read it to your kids at night as a bedtime story to prepare them for the financial world when they grow up. All right. Now let's talk dividends. So so the plays that I'm starting to watch again, focus dividends. So how do I go about my research? Right, I I don't do fundamental research. Not much. I use AI these days, of course. And so, you know, I do your standard top 10 uh performing dividend stocks or, you know, dividend stocks that have have increased dividends uh consistently over the last decade, whatever it is. They give me a list, right? 10 names, whatever. Then I just go through the charts and I say which ones stand out to me. I know what kind of charts I like. I know where my edges are as a trader. Uh, it's where I can be confident in the most likely scenario taking place. And so, you know, I go through the list and some of the names on my list I ditched. I didn't even write them down for the example. I ditched because they didn't have a ton of clarity. It's not my style. Yeah, they're testing some supports, but I didn't really like them. So I ditch those and I keep the ones where I have high conviction. And then again, it's the conveyor belt of trades. I've got a name on this list, Walmart, where we're looking for a one-month higher low as a dividend play. And then I've got a name, Proctor and Gamble, PG, where I'm going to be looking for a yearly higher low. And we haven't even started yearly consolidation. So again, am I looking at PG? No, not at all. Look, I mean, look at this. Is straight up. I can't buy a chart that goes straight up like this if I'm looking long-term. Give me a pullback, give me a couple red years, then I'm interested. I might not ever take a PG position. I might take a PG position in two years. If we start yearly consolidation and test EMA2 which has been holding for the last 35 years. I don't know. I know it's something that maybe I'll be interested in if the trade comes to me. I need a yearly higher low for me to be interested in this name. If it if it doesn't give me a yearly high or low, I'm not going to buy into this euphoria. I just I don't like the risk-reward. So that's on the list, but I'll check in on that name once every two months at most. Walmart, as I mentioned, I care about this one the soonest. Now I was talking about this a couple weeks ago because straight up blue sky breakout, monthly EMA 12, a monthly higher low is the most likely scenario. And then we get one of the better bounces. You know, after everything succumbs to fear and drops together in a high correlation, we see where does the money go? We saw gold take off, miners take off, Walmart V-shaped, doesn't have a daily uptrend yet, but V-shaped and broke to the highest level that we've seen in over a month. How many names are breaking to the highest level in the last month? Very few. So it stands out that uh bulls were more aggressively buying WMT than a lot of other places in the market. And so I grabbed a starter position yesterday and slightly green up one and a half percent. That's nice. But I want more. It's not nearly as much as I want. So what do I need to add to this position? Well, probably a weekly higher low. What if we keep running? Great. I have a little bit. I wish I had more. Whatever. I'm waiting to top out and I'll look for a weekly higher low knowing we need to confirm a weekly uptrend if we're going to head back to the all-time high. I'm still a little bit cautious in this name because it's a pretty quick dip by when the market could potentially roll over for another leg down. I don't have high conviction that the bottom's in for the broader market. So I my position size dictates my conviction and my aggressive level. And so it's a starter. And why I grab the starter is essentially I'm watching so many things, you know, I've got my lists, I've got my conveyor belts, but when something's in my account, I'm watching it every day and it's it's glaringly reminding me, keep your eye on this name. It's going to make a move sooner than all these other names. Uh, so that essentially ensures that I watch it if I just grab a starter position. So that's where I stand on Walmart. Couple other names I'm looking at three-month higher lows. So again, spying KIKQ. I had never used a three-month time frame before 2022, and it significantly helped me shift from bare to bull a little bit late. I didn't nail the bottom, but again, you know, you wait till you get high conviction. I shift early early 2023, spring, maybe around April, May. Obviously plenty of upside after that, but three-month. Okay, so now I like the three-month, right? I had I had good success with it. It helped me a lot. And so now there's a few dividend plays that I'm watching for three-month higher lows. And again, I know that the two-week time frame is what helped me find the three-month higher low in SPY. So I'm going to be watching the two-month time frame on the names where I'm scouting three-month higher lows. So the first one is IBM, three-month. We're in a stair step still. So I'm not looking to do anything right. I'm not establishing any kind of game plan. I'm not looking at a level. You know, Lamont with his volume profile chart guys, Lamont, you've seen those chart, those volume profile webinars we've done. He'll pick his level in advance. He'll say when the price gets back to here, this is where I'm looking to go long. That's not my style. I'm more reactive. I know that I'm waiting for three-month consolidation. I know that EMA 12 is a visual guide for me to start getting interested, but I then take it one day, one week at a time. Very different styles. That's why it's really hard for me. You know, someone will ask, "Where are you looking to buy IBM on consolidation?" I have no idea. I'll start getting interested at three-month EMA 12. That's as much information as I can give you. So it's a stair step for a couple years at this point, or one year, one year stair step. We almost broke it. Haven't yet. If the market sees another leg down, then we'll be seeing three-month consolidation. And I'll be interested in an IBM three-month higher low. Speaking of lost decade, again, per great example 2013, there's a there's a lot, there's your lost decade. So can the S&P 500 look like that? Possible. Unlikely, but I need to look at that chart and remind myself anything is possible in markets. I've only seen money printing, big bull markets in my career, and I have to prepare for that possibility. So it's always nice to have a chart that reminds you of that. But I'm waiting for an IBM three-month higher low. Consolidation is not underway yet. GE similar, but it did just start three-month consolidation. I'm watching the previous resistance zones to try and hold as support and look at where we and I I always adjust for dividends, especially on dividend plays, because the charts look so very different when you don't, but the way I see it, you know, some people disagree with me, but but for me, a dividend is an artificial change in price, why? Because you're taking money out of the stock price and distributing it to people, but you're you're it's not supply and demand hand that is dictating the new price. It's just you snap your fingers, the money goes over here, new price, price drops to adjust for the dividend. Uh, so I want to see what supply and demand are doing in a natural trading free market. So I always adjust for the dividends. Uh, and so I'm watching 158 as a previous adjusted all-time high to try and hold as support. And I know that when the next candle forms here on the three-month that EMA12 will be right up in there as well. And so that tells me, okay, the stair step broke. Start paying attention. I'm not rushing to buy. I want another leg down to scout the three-month higher low. And I'm watching, you know, could this be a head and shoulders? Absolutely. If we fail the high and roll over to fresh lows, then it's a two-week head and shoulders to see significant three-month consolidation. So again, I don't know. I don't know if I'm going to have any of these positions in six months from now, but I know what I'm going to be looking for. Microsoft is number three. I love my trade in Microsoft, one of my, I've this is the longest, aside from positions that are long-term no-touch. This is the longest swing trade I've ever taken in my life and got a really good entry in early 2023 and then got a a good exit. You know, I exited 2/3 average, maybe 435, and then I exited the final third. God, that was a good exit. And then the final third when we rolled over and broke 380, 380 was a very key support level for me on Microsoft. You see this essentially it was a double bottom. I said, "All right, I've sold a couple into strength. I'll let this runner go until the bears prove to me that I should be out." So ended up going maybe from 240, forget exactly when my entry was, yeah, the 240s to an average exit of 41s, we'll call it. And so now what? Now I'm looking to reload. I'm looking for a three-month higher low. So you can see the three-month consolidation in Microsoft is more developed than IBM and GE. So I know that if I'm going to be entering on a three-month higher low, it looks very similar here to 2022. Uh, it's going to come sooner. It's it's going to shape up sooner. Conveyor belt of trades: Walmart, Microsoft, GE, which broke the three-month stair step, IBM, which has not broken the three-month stair step, PG, which is an annual stair step that hasn't broken. Lay it out and time frames. These are how they're going. You know, something could change. Earnings news, whatever. One of them flushes. Okay, now I'm more interested. But that just lays it out in terms of

Time frame, conveyor belt of trades. So I'm watching Microsoft for a three-month higher low. Do I see anything on the two-week, on the weekly, or the two-week time frame that tells me that a three-month higher low may be shaping up? No, not yet. I got to be real patient. We're back testing and currently struggling at that previous support. And Microsoft has been, has had relative weakness the last couple of days. So I don't see anything. You know, if I were going to be a real aggressive bull, I'm looking for a two-day inverse head and shoulders, but I'm not, I'm not going to be a real aggressive bull. I need something on the week, the two-week, the weekly at a minimum, or the two-week time frame that, you know, again, a falling wedge, an inverse head and shoulders, a big enough bounce that I miss on the two-week that then has me looking for the higher low. But at this point, it's just patient and observing.

And you know, it's, it's the, the longer-term IRA that's mostly cash for me, absolutely wants the market to see another leg down. Uh, the, you know, the empathetic person in me doesn't want boomers to take that hit to their IRA. Uh, we'll see what we get. Fortunately, I don't have to decide what happens. But uh, I do know that I've got a lot of cash, which is why I'm scouting these dividend plays because I want to put that cash to use because I made a mistake in 2022 of not going into more dividend plays. And part of the reason was rates. You know, why am I going to load up into 4% dividend plays, 5% dividend plays when I can get four to 5% risk-free in, in both my cash just sitting in my account or in T-bills? So I'll be gentle with myself. That was definitely part of the reason I wasn't rushing into dividend plays. But that's something I'm watching for. You know, if we do see rates in this environment, let's say we get fear and consolidation on some longer-term time frames into an environment where they start cutting rates, do we see more flow back into dividend plays because there's less risk-free easy percent, uh, interest out there? Losing my throat quickly. All right, I'm reading the chat room now. Thanks for the likes and the shares, 129. I didn't even have to ask to get to 100. Well done. All right, there's a lot to read here. Let's go. Thanks for the support. Good thumbnail.

How do you figure out daily is related to weekly and monthly relates to yearly? Experience. I mean, you could go back and back test it. Uh, just go back and look at how the time frames relate to each other. What happened when the weekly uptrend confirmed? You know, pick any random name. What's a, what's a stock? Nvidia. So Nvidia double top at all-time highs, high or low, lower or high, weekly downtrend confirmed. When that weekly downtrend confirmed, monthly consolidation got going. And so now we have a big old monthly pullback. NVDA is going to have to be cautious of a monthly head and shoulders later on down the line. If we bottom around here and bounce up to 120, 120, 130, and then we roll over, bare market. Got to be cautious of that. There's a big enough pullback where a monthly lower high is absolutely the most likely result of the next bounce on NVDA. Bulls are going to be hoping it's 50% plus retracement to then tighten up rather than roll over. I gota, I got to remember that that is going to be crucial for the broader market analysis. Look at, if, if you were trading the last two days, the weight that Nvidia's bearish headline had on the entire NASDAQ, shouldn't be drinking carbonation while talking, the weight that Nvidia had on the entire NASDAQ was extremely notable, specifically today, this morning. Um, so this is going to be a huge factor in the long-term analysis of the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ as to whether or not that's a monthly head and shoulders top, watch in the middle of the year. I got sidetracked from answering your question, but just go through, cycle through the time frames, okay? Go back to, go look at the 2022 bottom and how the shift happened back into a bull market. What was the weekly doing? What was the two-week time frame doing? What were the trend changes like? Were there fake outs? Was there bullish patterns to be looking at? Let's go to Nvidia two-week real quick. Be look at that inverse head and shoulders. Yes. So good resistance fail, resistance, fresh lows, big bounce. That's a big enough bounce where I can scout a higher low to be the result of the next pullback. It's almost a triple top. Go bottom in. Soon as you break that 1877 three-month higher low set, you're a bajillionaire.

GME. I've got a swing, I've got a swing, I've mentioned it, but I like the monthly equilibrium in GME. This, this is relevant to the long-term patterns video. Low high, you know, I don't care about the short squeeze narrative, I don't, that's not my game. Uh, I care about a clear pattern. And so I would like to see the price get back to the upper 20s. And because I already have a position, I just want to break resistance of 34s. If I didn't, I would want to see again, the tighter the better, I would want to see upper 20s and fail, pull back for a monthly higher low, mid to lower 20s and then go. We'll see what we get. But it is a nice tightening pattern, and we've been tightening up for the last three quarters. Question is the market already priced in with the whole tariff? No. Too much uncertainty. The market prices things in when they're known events. If something is 80% probability, 90% probability, it's priced in. You know, we've had a bunch of Fed meetings, FOMC meetings where there's a 99% chance we know we're not going to get a change in the rates this meeting. That's priced in. So think of priced in and, and Google Chart guys, priced in. We have a whole video on it. Probabilities. The higher the probability, the more priced in it is. When something's a 50/50, can't be priced in at all. Well, a little bit, but not much can be 50% priced in.

When looking for a place for your stop on the longer-term time frame, some of the pivots are multiple percent away. What is a, a good way to mitigate such a potential loss? Position size. You are in complete control. If my stop's 1% away or my stop is 5% away on a swing, 1% day trade, 5% swing trade, my swing trade is 20% of the size of my day trade. Same dollar risk. You are in control of the risk regardless of what the percentage risk is. You're in control by maneuvering your position size. My style is take a larger position when I have high conviction or when I'm utilizing my day trading skill set, take a little bit off in a little bit of profit, lower my cost basis. Again, just the Microsoft example. So what I did on this Microsoft bottom was, okay, here's a double bottom. Now I'm interested because we, or not a double bottom, we held support and I missed this 10% bounce. Okay, bulls just proved to me a stronghold of support. I know a daily higher low is the most likely result of next consolidation. I entered on this candle when the daily higher low was set. My stop can then go, can my stop go down there? Yeah, that's too far away. Bad risk-reward. My stop's under the daily higher low because if this move is going to be what I think it is, sorry, I'm just barely getting over my cold here, if this move is going to be what I think it is, that daily higher low needs to hold. And so I got that position, I sold a little bit into the move up so that my break even was under that low. I missed getting stopped out of this position by a dollar, which was half a percent. Half a percent almost cost me 75% gain or whatever it was. So it doesn't have to be the absolute level. You know, if that's going to be the long-term bottom, we got to confirm a daily uptrend. If we fail to confirm the daily uptrend, I can't have high conviction. So multiple parts to answer your question, position size and you can also go by a closer level. The other thing is, you know, if I have stopped out, break even, I can then try again fairly shortly after. If I take a solid loss, I'm not going to try again right away. That would be either going on tilt or trying to, you know, fix a mistake. Or if I stop out, break even or tiny loss, I'll go right back in. I might not be able to answer a bunch of questions here. My throat is telling me to stop. The Litecoin chart will tell you if it's doing well. And the answer is no. Is there anything bullish about this monthly chart? No. Break, bull break with zero follow-through. What would have made this chart look good? You get over that double top and you back test and hold it and see continuation. Instead, we got over a double top, we fell back below it, we chop around, we battle, we try, we try, we fail. So there's, there's no, Litecoin does not look bullish. Sixmon. Anything bullish about that six-month chart? Not that I see. Three-month chart. Anything bullish? Do we have an uptrend? No. So I don't see anything bullish about Liquid. You gota, you got to turn 115 double top into support and hold it on a back test. Thanks for the like, encouragement.

If we got multiple years of red, how would trading change? You better be able to short. I, uh, I did not make a lot of money shorting in 2022. I was observing, I was recognizing, I've never seen a market like this. So I'm not going to try and be fancy and try and be aggressive in a market I've never seen before. I'm going to sit back and observe it and get the next one. Every single market environment that I've ever capitalized on was not the first time I saw it. We all have had a euphoria market where we give back all of our gains. I got mine out of the way in 2013 in penny stocks. So I was able to not do that in 2017 crypto. I kept all my gains. You have to see something happen and live it and experience it to learn from it and be able to capitalize it. Is it gonna get comical? You have to experience it to be able to capitalize on it the second time around. So I am day trading bearish the last three months. So much better than 2022. My day trading account, I think I'm green like 20, the last 21 trading days. I'm on a real good heater. What I still need to improve upon is bearish swing trading. ANF, a great example. So that's the next thing that I need to capitalize on, uh, and improve upon. But uh, I've got day trading long, swing trading long, day trading short. Got to get swing trading short. So that's next. I wouldn't say a bare market lead. No, bare market doesn't lead to low volatility. There are, there are huge bounces in bare markets. Again, the beauty about charts is we have the data right here. Go look at 2008. Go look at the size of the bounces in 2008 on the way down. That's why I struggle with swing trading bearish because there's double-digit percentage bull bounces that roll over to lower lows and I'm not going to sit through double-digit percentage bounces. I'll stop out way before that happens. So I need to get better about stopping out, but also re-entering. Yeah, Zavier's got it. Bare markets bring increased volatility both directions. Cash, cash is king for sure. I've been cash with the majority of my trading accounts my entire career as a day trader and just the, the peace of mind is so great. When the market's ripping 20% up in a year, I struggle to, to keep up with it, but I leapfrog on in periods like this, um, when, when there's red because I don't, my, you know, my major accounts don't see draw downs with the market. My IRA does, but you know, my day trading account, there's no draw down. But cash is, I mean, cash in terms of mental well-being, ability to sleep, cash is very valuable. Obviously, you got to keep up with inflation and all that. Finding a job to have capital to invest. Yeah, I mean, I was in my early 20s, but I was doing yard work, you know, I was mowing lawns, painting houses, playing poker, flipping things on eBay. You got to get your entrepreneurial grind on. You know, there, there are people that are working their job and then doing a shift of Uber Eats to stack cash. Any cash that I got went into my stock account. I won a poker, came in third in a poker tournament. Got $4,000, right into my stock account. Yeah, Tillray, death, debt, death spiral. All right. Thanks, Steve. I, again, do you know there are different things you can do to save money? I, I put myself in a living situation, I was very fortunate, but I did work trade where, you know, I was waking up with the sun, going out and milking the goats, feeding the pigs, feeding the chickens, working in the garden to be able to live for free. Uh, back when, right before I, I leveled up significantly in 2017 crypto, my cost of living was $400 a month. Phone bill, gas, car insurance, food, everything was $400 a month because I was doing work trade. It's hard to find those, I mean, it's not hard. Well, depends, but you know, you can, you can find work trade opportunities on farms. Um, woofing is one area that I was traveling, I wasn't really stacking much cash while doing that, but living dirt cheap. Yeah, being a minimalist allowed me to, uh, stack cash in my stock account. What made me grab GM, GME was today. Uh, the relative strength recently is what stood out. Strong start. I mean, look at, look at QQQ on the morning. Look at that red candle and look at GME on the morning. Opposite. GME was going inverse to NASDAQ to start. So I recognized in five minutes there's a lot of relative strength here. So I grabbed a position, a bit larger. Well, actually, I grabbed the size of the position that I wanted, but I knew I was a bit late. So I sold half of it into this move up to get my break even right down near the low of the day. So it's not the size of the position that I want because I had to sell half to be comfortable. IWM is, is bare three-month, I mean, three-month, we got to be cautious of a head and shoulders. Monthly, we're, we got a ton of space for a monthly lower high. Well, it's actually not as bearish as I thought, but it's definitely the weakest of the major indices that I look at. That's your support. That has to hold. That's your four-year lows. But again, not a lost decade, but a lost five years.

Do I ever value the fundamentals? The way I use fundamentals is a macro perspective. Example, why I got interested in stocks. I recognize there is a national perception shift underway in cannabis. I know things are changing. I can see the data that shows me the polls. Things are changing. I know that the legal environment will change in my lifetime. This is back in 2010. So I'm putting my money in cannabis penny stocks and it worked because that was the only thing you could buy when bullish cannabis news came out. But that was using fundamentals, right? That's fundamentals of a macro perspective. And then the technicals, fundamentals tell you where and technicals tell you when in terms of establishing a good risk-reward position. Uh, but you got to know where, do I want to establish a good risk-to-reward position in gold or in uranium or in tech stocks or in, you know, that's where fundamentals matters more to me is more zoomed out. Not what's this company's balance sheet. I don't care. I'll never care about that. Because why? Because human emotions supersede all of that. All of that goes out the window so quickly during euphoria and fear. And those are the two favorite things for the market to experience, or those are the two favorite things for market makers to trigger retail into feeling. And as soon as that happens, the fundamentals are out the window. GDX is not in euphoria stage. It's at 14-year highs, but it's a lagard. You know, it's, it's been going two months, we can say. Well, we'll, we'll just say four months. Four months bull break. I mean, gold's been going, gold was going for almost a year before that. That's like 10 months, two-month bull flag, four months. And the miners are really only participating in the second leg there. All right, I got to speed it up here. RTI, I'm still viewing it as a weekly equilibrium. Can I just DCA S&P 500 for long-term investment? Yeah, I mean, that's been working for many, many, many, many decades. That's how my dad retired. You work your 9 to 5, you sit in traffic, you sit at your desk, you put any extra money into the S&P 500. And you retire. And then you travel the world. I don't have a read on TLT. I've got a position because I got a real good entry down at the low. I've been holding this one for almost a year and a half. Got a real good entry at the low. Sold partial. I got a break even stop under that low. But I got no read here. That's choppy sideways mess. All right, I got to cut it. I appreciate you all tuning in again. I'll do these every few months, probably every quarter. Make sure and check out that sheet. Check the other ones out. Watch the playlist. Reposting the playlist. Everybody go out and do a good thing for someone else. Have a great long holiday weekend, and we'll see you.