Transcription
Hey traders, John How here. So today, or in today's video, what I want to do is I want to walk you through the psychology of how we should be approaching these markets.
One of the biggest things that I'm seeing with a lot of traders is that they get wrong when it comes to the psychology of these markets, and how to really understand them so you can actually benefit from them, not just now but moving forward. When should you be getting pretty aggressive in the markets, like, "Oh, this is actually looks like a pretty good buying time to get involved with this," and when should there be also a bit of a warning sign to say, "You know what, I don't know exactly when this is going to end, bull markets, but we're getting pretty frothy here right now, and I should be putting a bit of a warning sign on there"?
This is not coming from me, even though I've had 20 years of trading experience and I can help you a lot with that. We're going to be listening to the professional, uh, a professional trader or professional investor, Howard Marks, and we're going to be looking at this—this is the, uh, this is the video here we're going to be listening to today—um, and I want to share that with you; I'm going to share this with you; I'm going to be looking at the psychology, obviously, of these markets here; um, and then also I'm going to be bringing you down and showing you some like real-life examples of—we're actually going to be looking at the actual markets itself—looking at some real-life examples of how we can identify really good opportunities to get involved with these markets.
Because the bottom line is this, right? It doesn't matter what market we're looking at; we're looking to make a good return, right? So if we can identify those markets that's a pretty good time to be looking to enter that market, and then we can have those warning signs that you stay—stay away from these markets—that's when we can start to really excel our potential growth in the markets, right? So there's a lot we want to go through here right now, so let's actually—we'll go over here—and I want to start this here. This video here is from the, uh, from the financial—financial economics—this is the YouTube channel here—um, so this is the credit to—that's where I'm actually watching this video from—so credit to those people who put up this video here—um, and so let's actually do this here; let's actually start to play this here.
"That in the—in—in the economic world or in the business world, or certainly the investment world, sometimes we have an idea what we think will happen; we never know when. And the biggest problem you can have is by believing that you know when something is going to happen and acting strongly on that. One of the guys who, uh, works for me once wrote a memo to his clients, and he had expressed a simple rule: If you name a price, don't name a date. If you name a date, don't name a price. But if you name a price and a date, you can be wrong. In the other two cases, you can never be wrong. You say, 'Well, I think that stock is going to sell at 40 sometime.' They can't prove you wrong, you know, etc. So, so we—we—we talk about a correction, but we should not be—so we should not have so much hubris as to think we know when it's going to happen. That's number one. Number two, back in the crisis of '07-'08, people got into the habit of asking me and others—they kept saying, 'What inning are we in?' This became the big question in that cycle: What inning are we in? And so—and that's the way people talk about that now. When they said it back in '08, what they meant is how close are we to the end of the crisis; is what they were asking. More recently, they've been asking it, and what they mean is how—how—how close are we to the end of the bullish phase of the credit cycle? And I've been saying we're in the eighth inning for a little while, and I realized about a year ago that there's one problem with that location, which is that this isn't baseball, and we don't know how long the game's going to go. In baseball, if I tell you we're in the eighth inning, that means you can start packing up; uh, but in investing, the game could go nine innings, 11, 14—who knows? There's no limit. Like I said to Justice about his question about seven-to-eight-year cycles, there's no limit. So the current economic recovery is, uh, the third longest in history, and if it goes on for another year, it'll be the longest in history. There's nothing to say it can't. There's also nothing—there's no law—there are not laws of nature or physics at work here, so there's nothing to say it can't go another year, another two years, another three years—anything's possible. Now we can tell from the fact that that no recovery has gone more than I think about 120 months—there must be something—there must be some reason—you know, we—we may not even be able to say what it is, but it tends to define the probabilities. By the way, most people—you probably haven't started to think about this yet, but I'm—I'm assured that almost—just about everybody dies by 114, and that we—we get more and more and more people who are living past 100, and I'm optimistic about that, but—but still, almost nobody lives past 114. We don't know why, but that's the rule. So if you're—start—if you're—if you're going to make a—put down hard money for a vacation cruise for your 116th birthday, you're probably wasting your money. And so—so the thing is that, uh, you know, this can go on a long time, and in particular, I want to expand on your question a little bit to say that you—you said, 'Do I think about whether this is going to be a—a—cr—a crash, correction, or crash?' And, uh, first of all, you have to realize that the period of time that you have seen is only a brief part of history, and you have to bear that in mind. So if you've been looking at markets, let's say, for the last, uh, 20 years, it's easy to say—talk about crashes because it happens that the last two cyclical episodes we've had have been bubble and crash. We had the tech bubble and crash, and then the mortgage bubble and crash. That is not to say that every upswing is a bubble and—and—and has to be followed by a crash, and in fact, over the previous decades that I lived through, we had lots of minor, uh, boomlets and then corrections. So it—so first of all, don't automatically think bubble-crash. Secondly, Chris was asking me before, 'What do I think is the hallmark of a bubble?' And in—in market-wise, I think that the hallmark of a bubble is bubble thinking. And—and I didn't get a chance to tell you what I meant, but bubble thinking, to me, is when people say—you know, there's always a grain of truth. So in 1999, the grain of truth was that the internet would change the world, and so people took that grain of truth and they ex—expanded it to mean that as a consequence, if you invested in an internet or an e-commerce company, you would probably make a fortune, uh, because the internet was going to change the world, and it happens—and by the way—and as a consequence, it—it didn't matter what price you paid; there's no price too high to participate in that kind of trend. And it turns out that the internet did change the world, and probably 99% of those companies ended up valueless."
One thing I want to sort of, uh, share with you here when it comes to what he's talking about here and—and what he's saying here is, uh, one of the big things as—as you can see, it says he said that obviously 99% of the companies are valueless. One of the big things I'm seeing right now is the same thing happening in, um, in the crypto markets and also the AI sector as well, too. There's a lot of AI stuff happening right now, and that's starting to become a bit frothy in the markets, and this is where I truly believe that—I truly believe that by looking at, uh, what's happening right now—you see the AI—it's starting to become a bit frothy; these AI stocks have really been just massively moving over the last couple of years, but in particular also the crypto market, right? We see in the crypto market, um, and I'm seeing the exact same thing, right? It's just history repeating itself before, as—as Howard Marks said, right, about the, um, the stocks and the—and—and—and what happened back then. I'm seeing the exact same thing with the crypto market, meaning that there's thousands and thousands and thousands of these crypto coins and people launching these crypto coins, and there's only one way this is going to end, and that is a complete washing-away effect. Now, as Howard Marks said, right, we don't know when this is going to happen, but this is one of the reasons why I personally am staying away from the crypto market because, one, I don't understand it that much, and two, if you're investing anything other than say the top dog—say, I guess Bitcoin and so on and so forth—um, there's a lot of people out there talking all these meme coins and so on and so forth. It's the—you see how—see how it's history repeating itself. The internet days was—as Howard Marks said, right—the internet was the internet bubble, but 99% of those companies were valueless; they got washed away, and that's exactly what's going to happen with the crypto market. So the crypto market is a very good space to be in, but I'm finding the general population has been very big in the crypto market, and we're seeing a massive wave, especially in the last five years, into the crypto market as things continue on. Heck, my gardener is talking about the crypto market. So, uh, I'm not saying the crypto is a bubble right now, but what I am saying is that if you're trying to invest long-term for the crypto market—invest long-term there—um, then you must understand the—the cycle that we're in of what's happening and what's probably going to come over the next five to ten years, and that is there's going to be a massive washing-away effect, and there's only going to be a handful of main companies and cryptos alive, and all these thousands of other coins are probably going to get a big washing-away effect from there.
So the point is that when you reach the point where people have separated value and price considerations from platitudes, and things have slipped their moorings and gone off into infinity, that—that's a bubble. And that—to me, that kind of—so if you hear people say, "Price doesn't matter; no price too high," then I think you're in a bubble. "You know, I started in the invest business, um, 50 years ago, in the summer of 1968. I was between years of grad school, and I had a summer job at City Bank in the investment research department, and at that time, this—the New York banks invested in what were called the Nifty Fifty, the stocks of the 50 greatest, fastest-growing companies in America: IBM, Xerox, KO, Avon, Merc, Lily, Texas Instruments, SmithKline, Hewlett-Packard, PerkinElmer, AIG, and on and on like that, and they were selling at astronomical prices—80 to 90 times earnings. You know, the average PE ratio for the postwar period is 16 times earnings, so they were selling it five plus times the average, and the official dictum at the bank was that the price didn't matter; you didn't have to look at the price because if it was a little too high, so what? It's growing so fast, it'll just grow into the price. And if you bought the stocks when I got there in—in '68, and you—and you diligently held them for five years, you lost 90% of your money because it turned out the price does."
As you can see from there, and this is one thing that I really want to—I really want to sort of bring home of—of this point here, and then we're going to get on to the next video here, um, is it's just understanding this—this market cycle here, and this whole first section here is about just warning about the—the bubbles in these markets, and this is where like especially when we—when we start to get into like the bubbles and so on and so forth. So the first thing that I want to sort of—part—the first part of this video is about the people investing into the crypto market; there's a massive warning sign, um, around this level here, and, um, unfortunately, a lot of people are going to get hurt as this bubble continues along, and as these meme coins and so on and so forth in the crypto market is going to be absolutely just huge, um, from there. Now, um, Howard Marks was also talking about these corrections, right? So if I bring up this—this level here, one of the big things you actually notice here when it comes to the markets is the market's no longer in bubble territory. If we just bring up this—this is the, um, this is obviously the stock market here, and here's a few things here, um, let me take these lines off from here, and one of the things you'll be able to see is these—the markets—the market's in a very nice bull market sort of phase from now, right? This low point to high point up here, right? This low point to this—as you can see—look at this here—low to high, and the market actually came down—right down to where 50%, right? But this actually took time; as you can see, it slowly went down, slowly went up, slowly went down, and it hit on 50%, and then we continued back in the bull market. We can also see that once we start to do this—this—then this other major low here—do this other major high here—as Howard Marks was saying about that—we can just get these corrections, right? We can actually—this can just be a correction in the stock market right now; this can be just one of those corrections, just like all that—it's just—just like it was back here, right? It retraced what—50%? That was the 50% level right there, right? Right here was the 50%—% level; it held, and then we continued back up. This time it actually came down basically to the 50% level again, and it's holding that level there, right? And so this actually can just be another one of these major swinging motions, and one of the things you don't want to be saying is that this can—ne—that can never happen, right? We can never make—I have a 7,000 target still on the S&P 500, and what we don't want to be saying is that that can never happen, right, uh, as well as—even though I have a 7,000 target on the S&P 500, I'm also very humble enough to say that that may not happen, and what may happen instead is we do get a rally up, and then we start to do something like this, and the market will start to give us some rounding patterns like we see here—bit of heads and shoulder formation patterns will start to form and stuff like that when it comes to the stock market. So if you're thinking the stock market is in a great bubble here, uh, it probably was before, as you can see, it was in very strong exuberant prices to the upside, so were a lot of stocks, but now we're coming back down to some sort of equilibrium in the NASDAQ, in the S&P, and also the—also even the Dow Jones. If we go from low to high on the Dow Jones, you can see that it actually got to less than 50%, and then we continued up from here. If I go down to this level through here, and then I project this all the way up through here, look what happened: We came down 50%, and then we came down to here. So right now there's a lot of—when—when you—when you think about the narrative of the markets, right? The narrative—what is the narrative through here as the market's continuing through here? What's the narrative? Economy strong, bull market, bull market, bull market. What's the narrative down here? What was the narrative? The narrative is recession, recession, recession. What was—what's been the narrative for the last couple of years? Oh, big boom, big bull market, you know, economy good, econ—etc.—et—everything is good, good, good, right? And what's happening right now? Recession. And the purpose of me saying this to you in this section of the video is to try to guide you down that—that understanding the market psychology of these markets, and that is whenever the market is going up, there's a lot of positive talk around that; whenever the market goes down, there starts to become this recession talk, right? The exact same thing that happened down here; there was the R-word—the R-word, right? What is the R-word? The R-word is the recession talk, right? There's a lot of recession talk around this here, so you want to keep that in mind as you're approaching these markets here—that not to get so sucked in because if the market has been selling off, then we come back to what—then the same thing that's happening right now is the R-word comes out, right? But where was the R-word back, you know, just six months ago when this was happening? There was no R-word, right? It was boom, stock market, boom, stock market, boom, right? And now, as you can see it—we're—since we've now connected through here—so you want to be sort of—you want to sort of be alert if you're a—a trader or even an investor in these markets, and you're looking at seeing what's really going on in the big picture here. This is why I'm always looking at the big picture—understand that when markets go up, there's a lot of positive talk; when the market goes down, that's when the recession word starts, and it's just—it's a direct reflection of what the actual—the market is actually doing at that time.
Now this next part of the video here that I'm going to be explaining on this video here—again, it's from the Financial Economics, um, YouTube channel here—so—um, you can see here. So one thing I really want to share with you in this video here is about Howard Marks and what he talks about here and why I've actually been giving a warning sign with—with—with gold, and you understand why I've been—over the last, say, month—I've been giving warning signs with people looking to get into gold, and so we'll play this here: "The ability to be a liquidity provider at the bottom of a cycle—does that link to the—this notion of, uh, emotional intelligence that you're talking about? Well, uh, I would say emotional control, uh, you know, look, if you think about cycles, and this is a—there's a lot about this in the book, and that's why I recommend that everybody—body buy several copies, but if you think about the cycle—the market cycle—let's say that goes this way. What's happening? So we—we're in a—we're in one of these periods, and the economic news is good; everything on MSNBC is favorable; the newspapers only report the good news; everything can—the most stories can—can be given a positive spin; the companies are performing, and they're generally exceeding expectations; the stock prices are rising; the rising stock prices are making people feel good; people are turning more optimistic; their—their fears are—are abating; their eagerness is rising, and they're buying, and they—people tend to buy more when prices go higher, and then, of course, the reverse is true on the other side. The news is bad; people get depressed; they've lost money; they feel terrible, and they start to sell. So people tend to buy a lot here and—and sell a lot here."
So as you heard me say just—just a minute ago in this video here, is exactly what Howard Marks was saying, right? Remember—remember I said just probably a few minutes in this video for you—I was saying that whenever the market's going up, there's always—there seems to be positive news around the economy and the markets, right? But whenever the market goes down, like it has been recently, especially in the stock market, there seems to be, uh, a lot of negative news. So the—the news is going to reflect of what the market is actually doing, and that's where it's very hard—if you're looking at the news—it's always going to reflect what the actual market's doing, uh, not what it's going to do next. Now, unless I'm mistaken, they got it wrong; you're supposed to buy here and sell here, and not buy here and sell here—buy low, sell high. It's very—see what—see what he said there? This is one of the reasons why I've been giving warning signs about gold, right? Not that—not the fact that I hate gold—is that because gold has been in a tremendous big bull market, so did the stock market for the last couple of years, right? Hence we see what's happening in the stock market here. So I'll finish this video here: "Easy dictum. Um, so why do they do the opposite? Why do people buy here and sell here? The answer is, I think we can lump the explanation under the heading of emotion. And if so—you—you were—you mentioned Seth Klarman and, uh, Stan Druckenmiller; I mean, these are two people that have been here in this—in this series, and I think one of the things that they have in common among—they're—they're very—they're different people, but they're both brilliant, but one of the things they both have in common is they're not emotional. And you know, I say in my book that, uh, that—that not being very emotional is very useful in the investing world. There are worlds in which it's not such a good thing, like in marriage, you know, it does—it—it—lack of emotionality does not endear us to our spouses, uh, but the truth of the matter is it's very helpful to be either be unemotional or have the ability to control your emotions. You have to—I mean, when you make the really big money in this world by unhooking from the market when it gets up here and everybody—and everybody's happy and nobody could think of anything that could ever go wrong, and everybody thinks that—that—that trees are going to grow to the sky, and—and so you sell up here, and then the market collapses, and when you get down here, nobody can think of anything that could ever go right again, and the—and every stock price is devoid of any optimism at all."
Do you see what he just said there? This is one of the reasons why I've been really heavily looking into buying—actually, I have been—I've been buying pretty heavily into the stock market recently, on individual—on some individual stocks, because of that, right? Because with—now what he said there—there—I was very bullish on gold the last few years, and I made a lot of money in this very big bull market, but now putting a lot of cautious warning because, as Howard—Howard Marks says about this here, and that's a great time to buy, but to be—that you have to be a contrarian. And you have to be—ability—you have to be able to diverge from the crowd. Now, if you think about it, everybody receives the same inputs; we read the same newspaper; the economic news is the same for all of us; the corporate news is the same for us; the TV says the same thing to all of us. Some of us see the news and the prices as a buy signal, and just when most people see the news and the prices as a sell signal, and vice versa. And you want to be in the minority. Back in—back in the early '70s, somebody gave me a great gift and—and told me about the three stages of a bull market: The first stage, when only a few unusually perceptive people believe to understand that there could be some improvement; the second stage, when most people accept that improvement is actually taking place; and the third stage, when everybody and his brother believes that things can only get better forever. You make a lot of money if you buy in the first stage; you lose a lot of money if you buy in the last stage. You buy the same things, but what matters is when do you buy them and at what price. And to do that, you have to—the mar—the prices are set…
Low because everybody else is pessimistic, you should be optimistic. The market is set high and dangerous when everybody else is optimistic; you should be pessimistic. But it takes obviously emotional control to be able to do that; it's tough. It's the minority. So, um, so one of the reasons why I'm doing this video for you today is uh because it's so interesting. You know, Howard Marks' 50 years of experience, he understands this game right, and so even for myself, I'm always contin of how I should be thinking about these markets correctly, because it all starts with thinking; right thinking, actions, results. A lot of people are not getting good results lately, so that and that and then that because of their actions, because their actions are actually from wrong thinking.
Um, so again, I want to say thank you to the financial economics uh YouTube channel for actually putting this up here. Um, I appreciate it. Um, and that's credit to these to this channel here of of doing that. And so I want to finish off this video here with exactly what Howard Marks was saying. So for me personally, and what I'm doing myself, is exactly what he said; as this market's been coming down through here right, and this is the weekly charts, let me go to, let me actually blow up the daily charts here right. So this is the daily charts here, and as this market's been coming down and as we've been getting these really big flushes here, what's been happening with the news right? Obviously, you know, the tops in the big crash is starting and so on so forth. And as Howard Marks was saying, and and as it was going through right, is that we need to stay emotionally calm. And this is why I recommend, guys, if you haven't done so yet, make sure you apply for my coaching program because I'm with you basically every single day helping you stay emotionally calm, so you can make good decisions from there right. If you do, if you're interested in joining that group, um, then just go to getjhelp.com, getjhnelp.com; that's an application form, and uh when you fill it, you and I personally will have a good good chat on the phone, and we can just and we can go from there. But it's so important to try to stay emotionally calm within these markets to make really good decisions within these markets, uh because there's probably going to be some really good buying opportunities. And every time this has happened, even last year when we had this big drop down through here, what was happening through here, the same, the same sort of psychology around these markets. And the unfortunate thing is that because 90 plus percent of the traders who trade these markets are losing a lot of money, and I'm speaking to a lot of them these days right, um I'm seeing people, and I'm not joking, I'm seeing people that sold down the bottom here of all their stocks and now they're buying back in again, so because there's a lot of things there. So the the thing that and this this is one of the reasons why I'm very very big here right.
So then when you start to look at a lot of these other companies through here, all these companies, Apple, Tesla, Netflix and so on so forth, some of the biggest moves out of these markets are probably going to be the stocks that's being poo pooed on right. Like for example, Tesla, this is Tesla here, what's probably going to happen with Tesla? Tesla's probably going to have a nice rise now. It may not, this is not a recommendation right, and I'm not I'm not telling you what to do here cuz I could could be wrong here, but Tesla has been one of those companies that has just been poo pooed on, Elon Musk, there's been Reddit forums and so on so forth. Um, you know, there's been massive shorts, the markets crashed 50% so on so forth right, there's been so much negativity around there, so and you know we're getting Reddit forms saying that they that they've bought a $100 put options and they're going to short all this sort of stuff, so you know, and then we get all these other really big companies through here um of that. And so when you start to understand the psychology of these things now, even from looking at from a market perspective, as Howard Marks was saying, whenever we start to get this sort of action, whenever we start to get too much of a vertical move up that now starts to become pretty bubble territory right, you see it all the time. This is what happened through here. Uh, we saw what happened with even uh let's go look at uh Meta right, Meta, look at Meta from here, especially when we start look at the weekly charts, you can see just an extraordinary quality move up. So what eventually happens right, we we end up getting a nice big correction right, we see this through here, we're seeing through here, uh we know we we're getting a really nice correction through here. I happened with JP Morgan as well too. So JP Morgan's another one, just an example of when we start to get this here and what tends to happen, as you can see, very nice bull market through here and then we get a vert, see how that vertical move happens, see the vertical move, that's the end of the move right, that's that's when we're getting nice moves through here, nice stair stepping up and down, up and down, up and down, and then we go vertical. What is that? This vertical, this parabolic move here, which is much stronger than any of these other moves through here now, is a sign we're potentially given towards the end of this overall big big bull market phase, which as you can see was through there.
Um, you know, so there's a lot of stocks, AXP is another stock off off my memory from here. Uh, if you go to the weekly chart once again, you can still see a very very very big move to the upside, and this is over over a course of what's that one to two one, what's that? Yeah, over the course of say one year, very very very big bull market right. So the whole thing around the psychology of markets is as the market starts to do this here for quite a bit of time, especially over many year over a year or so, you want to be cautious because this is what tends to happen; we start to get and it starts to get a balancing out right, we start to get the the move up, but then we need to come back down to maybe a 50% level to start to balance out the markets right. It's too froy; what goes up must come down. And so the finishing off this video here is, and if you did make it this far, I want to congratulate you because this has actually been quite an intensive video, but my whole thing here is to try to give you a big picture view of why smart investors do something and the things that I've learned over the last 20 years and why I believe I'm going to do really really well this year because I'm contrary right now to most people, um what I'm doing in the stock market right now, what I'm doing, and even when it comes to gold right, look at gold through here, see that's the same thing right, and I want you to I'm trying to sort of show you here and and if you're emotionally entrained in gold's going to go to 4,000, gold's going to 5,000 and all this sort of stuff, then we need to look at the reality of you know not only from the perspective of look at all these markets, the markets do the same thing right, they get into this bubble territory, the stock market did it, look at this here, stock market very big move up, stock market very big move up for a year or two, and then we start to get bit froy, and then we have a big correction right, and so on so forth. These all these markets operate the same way, and so this is why I've been putting a big warning sign on gold is that I don't know when this is going to happen, but when it does, this is the sign of the end of the bull move of when it comes to gold. And this is why I've been sort of putting warning signs out because my job is to stop people trying to get into gold now thinking that this is now getting ready to take off to 5,000 cuz it's the See that's the wrong mentality. If you want to have a much better opportunity, then maybe it's the stock market we should be looking for opportunities and not gold. And by the way, guys, through here, this point through here and this point through here, I had two amazing trades all through 2024 on the gold market; I made a lot of money in through 2024. I've only been putting warning signs on now because I'm starting to see what's happening here, and my whole goal around putting warning signs on the gold market right now is the fact that we're starting to see what I talked about here right, we're starting to see a parabolic phase through here, we're starting to see things go parabolic, and as Howard Marx said right, the not me, Howard Marx, really successful investor, let's be humble enough to listen to what he's saying, and what he also said in the first video is that we can see what's likely to happen when things start to become very froy right. This is this is when people start to get really excited about something through here, um and the sentiment changes. So my whole goal is just to try to, if you're not in gold already and you're looking to get into gold, or you haven't have in the last sort of couple of weeks and you're a legend because you got it, you got it right, then I want you to be put put a bit of a warning cap on right, because like 90 plus percent of the time whenever we start to get a bit froy in these very big bull markets, even through here right, look at this here, 2000 here, here and here, this lasted what, this this this wasn't even that strong one here and then literally one and a half years of bull market and then we started to correct through here. We've been going since basically you can see the same sort of thing right, we're starting to get very very very froy here, we've already had a very big move to the upside, and that's my whole warning sign when it comes to gold, uh when it comes to that through there. Now I don't know, we don't know how this is going to happen, but there's a very high probability we're going to start to see a correction, and this is the last move out of gold when it comes to this level here. Yes, we are still continuing up from here right, but my whole once again my whole thing around gold is that I'm just trying to save you guys and I'm just trying to point you guys in a much better high probability direction right, uh and hopefully this video gives you some examples of what happened and uh and uh and and what's been happening with these markets and hope you can see now the psychology of these markets and where people are at, as Howard Markets as Howard Mark says of of where this at. And so that's the reason why like down here, the panic cap capitulation anger, we're seeing that in the stock market; there's a much probability looking at stocks there, um than say for example what we're seeing right now, which is euphoria with thrill; that's it. I'm going to make so much money, it's going to 4,000, 5,000; there's a lot of warning signs through there when it comes to gold. Now obviously you guys can do whatever you want to right, but if you want to finish this year off strong, if you actually want to have a good year, so come December this here, what does that require? It requires you to actually step back, not have an emotional attachment to any of these markets and look for these pockets of opportunities that's going to give you the best chances of actually having a really nice profit on that trade.