Transcription
What's up, guys? How are you? Welcome to week four. It's kind of nuts. It's week four of the NFL already. He is Pat Fisor. I'm Matt Perz. We're back to talk early bets, Survivor, and look aheads. Things you guys should fire on right now. Pat, good to see you.
Before we get to football, you're a golf guy. This will come out and then the games happen Sunday, Monday. Yes. But the Ryder Cup begins. USA team, Europe. What are we doing at Beth Page coming up for this Ryder Cup? I haven't even checked the odds this week, but I locked in the Euros at plus 150 a long time ago. They're they're just the better team, Matt. And I know they've got, you know, the the home course disadvantage and it's New York, so those fans are going to be in full throat and probably not being too hospitable to the Euros, but um just top to bottom, I think the Euros are a far better team than the US, and I think they're going to win this week. Oh boy.
All right. Well, we're here to talk football. Hopefully you're wrong. Go team USA. But let's get into the Thursday games, early bets and plays that we like. Before we get to our plays, I just want to get your take on Thursday because obviously it's a major divisional game. It's a short week for both these teams for the Eagle for the uh Seahawks and the Cardinals. Seahawks defense looked good, but the Saints are just garbage. So, I don't know how much you take away from what happened on Sunday with that game. What was it 38-3 in the first half? It was insane. I laid the seven with Seattle. It was the easiest bet of the week. What do you make of Thursday night?
Yeah, that was a uh that was a good game for both of us. Never had to sweat the seven and a half at home. Um the Seattle defense is really underrated, Matt. And um like I think the offense is pretty functional, too. Like Clint Kubak has got the running game rolling pretty nicely. Sam Darnold still looking pretty competent and he's going up against a Cardinals defense that is really wrecked as far as the secondary and injuries. So, I think they're going to be able to do some business against uh Arizona through the air. I I like Seattle in this game.
I like it too. And and I'm not I know it's one of those weird things in the the NFC West is sort of like you can bet on certain teams to beat the other just given history as to what we have seen, but I I like Sam Darnold. I like this offense as to what it's looking like. And I and the defense, like you mentioned, is playing really really well. I'm just not there. I knew in the preseason I talked to so many people that were all over the Cardinals to win the West to go over their win total like sleeper team in the conference. I I I I couldn't get there and I haven't seen anything really this year that makes me change my opinion of Arizona. So, I'm with you. I'll take the points. I'll take Seattle on the road on Thursday up against Arizona.
All right. Bet number one for you. Let's take a look at what your eye is going to for the first play for week four of the NFL. Oh, humiliation is such a great motivator in the NFL, Matt. And and we saw that last week with the Vikings coming off that horrible home loss to the Atlanta Falcons, just laying it to the Bengals um in a second straight home game. I think we see a similar dynamic with the Falcons this week against the Commanders. Um second straight home game for the Falcons, humiliated in the first one, losing 30 to nothing to the Panthers. I mean, this has to be a Circle Wagons game for the Falcons. And I think they're going to be upset after how poorly they played in that game. This is a legitimate defense and we saw it in Minnesota. Like I I know JJ McCarthy and everyone's going to lay the the blame at his feet for that game, but like this Falcons defense is pretty legitimate. They have a pass rush now and they're good against the run. Were last year, too. Um so I think they hit the Commanders here. Right now I'm seeing two and a half or plus 120 on the money line, which I might like a little more.
The the odds make me think the Falcons is a home dog that the uh that Vegas envisions Jaden Daniels coming back for this one. Interesting. And I agree. I mean, don't you think the the odds with the Falcons as a two and a half point home dog make it seem like people are expecting Jaden Daniels to return? Because if because if he's not and you're getting the Falcons as a home dog, two and a half points against Marcus Mariota, then this is an an absolute steal. But I like it anyway. And I think I'm going to take the money line at plus 120.
Yeah, I think you're right because I think it's here on a we tape on Tuesday morning. So I think it's a defensive mechanism for the books just in case he is going to play and there may be something in the in the water out there that says Jaden Daniels is going to play. So before they open up the limits, let's test the waters. I I I think it's one of the more underrated things about sports gambling that I think the average folks don't understand that they think that a a point spread is a prediction of what the books think is going to happen. And that's not what a point spread is. A point spread is a prediction as to which side the professionals are going to be on. So they're going to test the waters. Oftent times before the limits get opened up later in the week on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, the books put up numbers as like a test flare. This is a prime example of this. I think you're absolutely right. Let's see what the what the pros think. Let's put up one and a half. First move on Washington to two and a half. That tells you the books got what they wanted. They got the information that uh Daniels is playing. Let that number go up and we could see a three-point home dog for the Falcons. And that's probably a good spot to jump in if the number does get to three to take Atlanta.
I'm going to look at a total and I I we just watched it last night. I know it's a short week, but I don't like the Browns defense and I don't like the Browns defense on the road and I really like what we saw out of the offense yesterday from the Lions. That running attack and we'll talk about Baltimore later on as to what they looked like and and whether you know we want to put more on the Lions are more on the Ravens defense for what they saw last night. But at home, it's been pretty much an ATM machine. When the Lions are at home, but that number is below 50, you bet the over and it normally goes and gets the gets you to the window. It's 45. Pat, I just can't see this game being low scoring between the Browns and the Lions.
Our colleague Andrew Ericson does refer to Ford Field as the Kors Field of the NFL, Matt. And um yeah, I mean it is a short week for the Lions and maybe it's sort of a letdown spot for them after the big win against the Ravens. And I thought the Browns defense looked pretty amazing against my Packers last week, but then again, the Packers offensive line was kind of wrecked by injuries. He said a couple of key guys, Zack Tom and Aaron Banks, leave the game early in that one. That undoubtedly helped. So, I don't know if I'm going to bet this one myself. I don't dislike the over here based on the trends and and maybe the Browns are getting a little bit too much credit for what they did to the Packers in the setting of this number. I did expect a slightly higher number. I thought it was going to be 46 or 47. So, maybe there is some value here. probably not going to touch it myself, but if I were going to play one end of it, I like the over two.
All right, bet number two for you. Where are you going here in week f in week four of the NFL? Speaking of the Green Bay Packers, uh they've obviously had this game in Dallas uh circled on the schedule for a while, the the Micah Parsons homecoming game. Um and as a a kind of a bonus for like I I don't like betting seven-point home dogs. Obviously, that is a a that automatically sets off red lights and sirens, but um obviously the defense is going to be fired up. Mic Micah Parsons is going to be motivated. The Packers in general coming off that toe stubbing in Cleveland. I think uh the Cowboys are going to have their full attention this week. And the Cowboys are beaten up. No CD Lamb this week with his ankle injury. They're down a couple of offensive linemen. not the best time to be down a couple of offensive linemen when you're trying to block up Micah Parsons. And um you know like I I just don't know if Dak Prescott can lean on George Pickkins who it seemed like there were a few times in that game against the Bears where um Dak looked like he expected Pickkins to do something other than what he did. So I don't know if he can just take over as the lead receiver for them. And after that, who else do you have? Jaylen Tolbert, Cavante Turpin. I just this is a really good spot I think for the Packers and I'm going to lay the touchdown and and take them to win easily.
I I am nervous about this game. You you you said it in the open about bounceback spots and everyone talking about how badly this Cowboys defense is and and look, I don't know if they fix it in a week, but Matt Eberlu has some worries about his job in Dallas if this continues because you can't expect Dak Prescott to score 35 points a game. like they they just their offense can score, but like you mentioned without CD Lamb, they did not do very much. They ran the ball effectively in the first quarter, but then they got behind and then things just really didn't go the way they wanted to. And then once Lamb went out, they couldn't do anything offensively. Their game plan was shot and the Bears just was were able to pin their ears back and get after Dak Prescott. So, I I do expect a better a better effort out of the Cowboys. The number worries me. It's a big number. That's a that's a big number at, you know, for for a matchup in which Dallas really needs it. given what the division's looking like. I mean, the Eagles could very well have a monster lead in the division if the Cowboys lose this game to the Packers. So, to this is a one of those like hinge games where like the season can hinge on this performance and if you win or lose, I've just seen this before with the Packers. You know, Matt Lefleur gets off to a red-hot start and all of a sudden they just start to fall all over themselves and they lose to the Browns, they lose to the Cowboys and just everything kind of falls apart in the middle part of the year and then they bounce back later. Laflur is great in weeks one, two, and three. Once you get outside of those first three weeks, things start to get a little bit difficult for Matt Laflur because the other coaches figured out what he's doing. So, one I I'm worried about that number.
One thing I'll add, Matt, like I I know we're kind of trying to reckon with what the Dallas Cowboys are, and maybe in that week one loss to the Eagles where they play the defending champions close throughout, people thought that maybe the Cowboys could be a playoff contender. I think we're trying to decide whether they're that or just a really bad team. And and we saw the really bad team come out against Chicago. I think they're closer to being a really bad team than a true playoff contender. like their defense. I know they get Deron Bland back which will help with the pass coverage a little this week. I still think that's a really really bottom bottom tier defense.
I would agree with that. Yeah, I my concern is that if the Packers do not get after Dak and if Dak can move the ball, you know, prime time home dogs in the NFL, generally speaking, are a pretty good ticket to take to to grab on to versus laying points. I know why the number where the number is. I mean, anyone with eyes can see that the Cowboys defense is garbage. The question is, can the offense keep up in in prime time turnovers? I mean, that interception that Jordan Love threw that cost the game. You can talk about the block kicks all you want. And I I lost two Survivor pools on the Packers loss. I lost my bet, my teaser bet on the Packers. Like, I did not think they would lose that football game. And then it was 103 and the pick and I was like, you got to be kidding me. like this is just so that's the worry that turnovers can change a football game and if if love keeps on throwing picks this is could be this could be tough. I I do think Yeah.
Sorry, I was just going to say I do think that um if it weren't for the home dog on national television, like I think this line might be nine. That That's kind of why I think there's value here, but it could be. Yeah, that's true. I mean, on paper, the Packers are a much better football team. There's no It's a scary bet. It's a scary bet, though. You're You're right. I am also selfishly hoping that you're wrong because I want to bet the Packers to win the Super Bowl. And if the Packers lose this game and they open up two and two, I'm gonna get a really good price and I'm gonna get a better price than what I would have gotten in the preseason on the Packers to win the Super Bowl. So, I want to bet that I I like your team a lot. I I think they got some really nice pieces. When the offensive line's healthy, I think they have some really nice pieces. So, selfishly, I want them to lose this game so that I can bet them to win win the Super Bowl because I do think this might be Matt Laflur's year because I really do like their pieces. It's just kind of a bump in the road for them as every NFL season will have.
Everyone's gonna hate my second pick and I'm okay with it because everyone says you cannot bet the over the games overseas. Do not bet. Do not bet. Do not bet. You talked about it. The Vikings bouncing back. I watched the entire Patriots Steelers game. Okay, that is one of the most insane wins for a team that I have ever seen in my life who was dominated in every facet of the game. The Patriots had four fumbles and one interception and that's why they lost. They fumbled two times at the goal line to the Packers. Aaron Rogers in that offense didn't look dangerous. That defense was giving up huge plays all over the place. And and I I look at the Vikings in how they played last week against the Bengals. And defensively, I'm like, Aaron Rogers is in trouble. I don't care if it's an I don't care if this game's in Ireland or not. Like, I don't care where I think it's I think the number being two and a half is simply because it is in Ireland. And so everybody is like, "Oh, you can't bet those games overseas because they get wonky." You know, body clock is all messed up. And I don't care. It's Kevin O'Connell. It's a team that is rolling against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that I don't think is very good. And look at the Patriots aren't very good either, but the Steelers aren't very good. I'm going to lay the two and a half. I I I get less than a field goal here, Pat. I'm taking the Vikings on the early morning slate on Sunday. I think the only way they don't win this game is if Carson Wentz is terrible. And you know, he was competent against the Bengals and that's all they need him to be. He gets Jordan Addison back from suspension this week. So, he's got that dynamic trio of Jefferson, Addison, and Hawkinson. Um, yeah, I'm I'm with you, man. Like, the Steelers could very well be 0 and three right now. They should have lost to the Jets. They absolutely should have lost to the Patriots if the Patriots hadn't kept shooting themselves in the foot inside the 10 yard line. Um, so yeah, I mean like this Steelers have the most expensive defense in the league and it has arguably been the most disappointing defense in the league. Like they are just not very good right now. And the number is climbing. You know, we talk about betting it early. You know, most are at two and a half, but South Point here in Vegas has gone to three this morning. So is Fanatics. So is Hard Rock. I mean, so we're seeing early money come in on the Vikings, and I think that that's the that's the right side. I would take it before it gets to three. We talk about betting early. This is not my pick to bet early, but this can classify as betting it early. Laying the two and a half versus laying three or higher. Yep, I'm with you.
Okay, bet number three for you on the week. Broncos, I'll give up the touchdown of the Bengals. Bengals are a train wreck. Like they never should have been two and 0. Um we saw like the one good thing the Bengals had going for them this season was the passing game with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and even that was kind of in jeopardy of being uh thwarted by the offensive line problems. Well, now they don't have Joe Burrow anymore. Uh Trey Hendrickson is about the only thing the Bengals have going for them and he's a one-man defense basically. Like Denver's pretty legit. I know they didn't throw their best punch in week one against the Titans. They've lost a couple of tough games since then, but like we saw them go toe-to-toe with a really good Chargers team last week. That was a game that was a coin flip. Either team could have won that. And the Denver defense, man, like another tough spot for Jake Browning after getting uh the Brian Flores treatment last week. I don't think he's going to fare much better against this Denver D, which you know, with personnel, they they might be the best defense in the league, not the Green Bay Packers. So, um I I think Denver handles business very easily at home and covers the seven.
Yeah, we talk about survivor pools. This is my Survivor pick for the week. I I just if you haven't used the Broncos yet, I mean, this is the team that I would use because I look, Zack Taylor without Joe Burrow is now eight and 23 straight up without him. So, I I there are two coaches in the NFL that I believe that should not be coaches in the NFL. Zack Taylor is one and Brian Callahan is two. And so, we will see if either one of those are still the guy next year. Brian Callahan might get tossed this season. I don't think they would move off of Zack Taylor simply because of the excuses built in without Joe Burrow. It's, hey, I lost my quarterback. What do you want? But you see, you know, Kevin O'Connell lose his quarterback. What does that team look like? Like, you see good coaches who can coach up, you know, mediocre quarterbacks or or average quarterbacks, backup quarterbacks, and go and win football games in the NFL with them. It may be ugly. It may not be the way you want to win in the playoffs, but you can find a way to win. Not so much with Zack Taylor and this Bengals team. And without Joe Burrow, this team is lost. And Denver, I I think this is a get-right spot for the Denver Broncos here. I I like your side. Uh we'll get to Survivor picks here in just one second. But my third and final, I I'm fading the Bears. I I mean, here in Vegas, I get Vegas at a pick. I get the Raiders and I pick them just basically to win the game here against Chicago. Th this is where I think the Bengals sorry that the Bears have a problem because of all the flowers being thrown at the feet of Caleb Williams that he's arrived. This team is unbel I think it was all the Cowboys. Okay. I I I think that was all the Cowboys defense. I I like Caleb on the road though in this spot for Vegas after a really bad performance against Washington. I was on the Commanders last week. I thought that was a bad matchup against Marcus Mariota who played very well for the Commanders. It was a no-show for Las Vegas. And just here, the ether here in the air here. There's a lot of frustration with the way the team performed. And I thought it was really possible because they went east coast, west coast, east coast. Well, now they're back at home on the west coast and they have a chance to get right here. I like the Raiders to win to go two and two. I'm just not a very big fan of this Bears team and even after the win, I still think the Raiders are the better football team.
I'm kind of terrified by this game, Matt. Like I just I feel like this one could go either way. I kind of like the over more than I like either side of it to be honest because I do think like the Raiders um might have an even worse defensive backfield than the Cowboys. Like that that is they can stop the run but against the pass and and I worry that like now that Caleb seems to have a little momentum on his side does he just pick this Raiders secondary apart? But at the same time, the the Bears have a lot of defensive problems of their own. Matt, their two best cornerbacks, both injured. Um, some of their key players in the front seven injured, too. So, um, like I think we could see points. I just don't feel enough confidence in the Raiders to take this, but I agree the spot is probably a good one for them with the Bears coming in feeling a little fat and happy after that win over the Cowboys.
Yeah, opened up one and a half. it's been bet to a pick. So, the early money coming in here on on the Raiders, but also that could be a head fake. I mean, we talked about it a bit earlier, but there are times when the pros will take a number to drive it down to the number that they want and then open it up and hammer the Bears. So, you know, the most limits Monday, Tuesday is $1,000. So, they'll put $1,000 down. They'll move the number to a pick and then they'll go all in when the when limits are up to 50,000, they'll come in and put $50,000 down on the Bears to win the game. So there that could be a head fake move where the Bears get to get the majority of the action late, Raiders money early, Bears money late. But I I just think the Raiders, they need this. They need to win their home games. They need to quiet down the crowd here because Pete Carol came in with a lot of hype. Gino Smith has played like crap. Like he's just played awful for this team so far. And there's not much behind him to talk about. So there's not like, hey, get the backup ready to go. But Ashton Genty, there's been big conversations about whether or not he was the right pick for this team and has he been a bust. The offensive line has looked completely lackluster and not opening up holes at all. And the receiving core is, you know, somewhat questionable. So, I I think this is just like backs against the wall. Got a beatable team and the Bears like you mentioned coming in with their secondary and overall defense. Raiders find a way, not pretty, but they find a way to win the game on the pick.
All right, survivor pools. And as we go guys through this, understand that your own personal journey with a survivor pool, we don't know what teams you have used. So once you use a team in Survivor, you can't use it twice. So if we recommend teams that you've already used, well, sorry, but we're just going to talk about the best, the most likely, if you have it available on the board, the most likely team you guys can select. So for Pat, for you Pat, who gets picked, who is your survivor selection for week four? It is. For me personally, it's the Patriots, Matt, and I'm trying to uh I'm trying to like I don't know, get a little cute here. Save keep my powder dry. I just think this is there only so many spots where you can use the Patriots. And I think um I I like betting on the home team that's been home for a week already. So, like their second straight home game, which is the Patriots coming off a disappointing loss in a game they know they should have won where they totally outplayed the Steelers. We already talked about that. Now, they get the Panthers after the Panthers good game. Like, I feel like the Panthers obviously threw their best punch in the 30 to nothing win over the Falcons after looking terrible in weeks one and two. So, do can the Panthers play two really strong games in a row? I have my doubts about that. Like I I think the Patriots win this one pretty easily. Um but the other options like that Denver Bengals game looks great. I just personally use Denver in all my Survivor pools in week one. So uh not available to me, but like that is the better percentage play. I think they're going to be other spots for the Broncos later in the season though. Obviously the Bills are the lowest hanging fruit here at home against the Saints. I mean 16 and a half if you're just playing to survive into week five that's your pick. Um but other than that not a lot of like super track maybe the Lions Matt I just I do worry about the short week and the let down spot with them and uh you know the the Texans like they're coming off a bad loss but it just might not be any good is the problem.
I think from a I think from a strategic from a a strategic standpoint, I think the Patriots are a really crafty play because when are you going to use the Patriots? When when are you looking to feel confident to put your whole Survivor contest entry down on New England? This very well might be the selection, the time to go ahead and do so. I like Denver if you have Denver available, but I also think there's a strategy there and and I know it's low hanging fruit, but there could be a strategic move to just bet against the Saints every week and just say, "Hey, until they get into a situation where their point spread is like three or four and there's a chance they might win the game and then maybe you look off to somebody else." I I mean, that's what I'm going to do. I I'm in a contest where I have three entries. I lost two of them on that Packers loss and I was able to get I advanced from I think I I think I took Seattle to advance. I I'm just going to go ahead and take whoever the Saints are playing for the next like month and a half. Like I'm just going to bet against New Orleans and take it and not worry about the path or who they're playing or you know when am I burning which team because New Orleans looks completely incompetent. Like I don't know if Kell Moore I know it's his first year so maybe they say hey don't worry about it it's a pass but yikes like that was that was one of the worst games I've ever watched offense and defense for an NFL football team against Seattle and special teams Matt don't forget about the special teams they were uh they were pretty rough too 95 yard punt return to go up 14 nothing fumbles mistakes like it just it looked like the bad news Bears out there it didn't look like an NFL football team with New Orleans. So, I don't think it's not something you fix in a week. You know, when you're taking on Buffalo, I I'm a big believer in just advancing. You got to get to Thanksgiving before you can worry about path and who's left and whatnot. So, just survive and advance. And if you're just going to do that, bet against the Saints, take whoever's playing New Orleans in survivor pools and just hopefully, you know, there's not a lightning strike and New Orleans beats somebody over the next couple of weeks. But I really doubt it'll be Buffalo coming up this weekend. That would be that would be something else to to watch that.
All right. For Yeah. Oh, I was just going to say for what it's worth, anyone uh with the bet against the Saints strategy and Survivor, they go on buy in week 11. So, you could beautiful you could ride that for quite a while. And I don't believe the Saints play the um Ravens this year. And uh the Ravens have a pretty good matchup in week 11 against uh well, it's a road matchup. Uh well, you wouldn't like this one because it's a divisional game. It's on the road against the Browns, but Oh, but they almost lost to the Browns, so they're going to have their attention. Yeah. You know, so so it's it's No, no, no. Sorry. No, sorry. They haven't played yet. Ravens Browns haven't played yet. Sorry, that's not true. Wait, didn't they play in week two? Is that the week two game? Yeah, that was week two, right? Yeah, that was the Flacco game, right? Yes, correct. Or am I Yeah. Okay. But yes, I would take it. I I So I I don't like it because it's a divisional game, but but at some point the Ravens defense is going to get figured out at some point. we're going to see them actually look competent from a defensive standpoint.
All right, for bets you would make right now, what numbers would you fire on here on a Tuesday morning? Uh because we look like it looks like the numbers are going to move. I want to get the 49ers right now at minus three against the Jaguars. Um because right now things are looking to be on track for Brock Purdy to play in this game for the 49ers come back from his uh toe injury. I don't know if the line reflects that yet or or maybe it does and the 49ers are getting knocked down a little bit for having lost Nick Bosa. That's a possibility. Um the Jaguars do come in at two and one, but it is a fraudulent two and one. Like this team is not good, Matt. Like that. My eyes were bleeding from the Jaguars Texans game last week. It was that bad a game. Jaguars traveling cross country. Their passing game is just in ruins right now. I mean, Brenton Strange is leading them in receiving yardage. Uh, Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. not on the same page at all. Brian Thomas Jr. dropping balls. I don't think they've Yeah, they've they haven't figured out the Travis Hunter usage. Like, I don't know who to blame at this point for the passing game was like, do we uh finally pin it on Trevor Lawrence and say he's just not the number one overall pick he was supposed to be? Uh, you know, is Brian Thomas Jr. like how come he's not playing as well as he did last year? Do we blame Liam Cohen at all or do we just skip Liam Cohen and go straight to passing game coordinator Shane Waldron? Everyone likes to blame Shane Waldron for everything. So whatever it is like I I like a Robert solid defense even without Nick Bosa against this Jaguars passing game. I think they're going to make things really hard on him and the 49ers you know with Purdy back and Christian McCaffrey they're going to generate enough offense against this Jaguars defense. So minus three. I think it's a steal. I think if Purdy is when Purdy comes back, I think this is going up to like four and a half, five.
So for me, and this is why it's kind of crazy to tape on a Tuesday. While we have been talking, the move has come on the Chargers and it has come aggressively here on a Tuesday. We're already to 6 and 1/2 at certain books after being at 5 and a half which is where I wanted it because it was five and a half before we started taping 30 minutes ago and now it's six or six and a half. So the professionals agreed with me that the New York Giants are god awful and the New York Giants may be starting Jackson Dart which against Jim Harbaugh and that defense good luck. That's a really bad situation. And I mean, the whole offense is basically Cam Scataboo and that's it for the Giants. There's nobody else really to jump up and down about for them. It looks like Russell Wilson's going to be the one that gets the blame for the lack of offense, but it's the defense on top of that that hasn't played very well. I if you can find a six, jump on it. I'll take the Chargers minus six, but do not lay seven. I don't want to go there, but if you can get it at six, I think the Chargers are the right side. I hate laying points on the road, but the Giants are a disaster. I talked about it all summer and people pushed back on me. The Giants defense, the Giants this, the Giants stink and the Giants are going to stink all year. So, I was under five and a half with their and their schedule just is brutal. I mean, they may be a halfway decent football team if they weren't playing the schedule that they're playing, but they're playing a horrific run and they lost last week. The Cowboys game was a game they should have won and they lost that one. So, now you get the boobirds and you get all the nastiness. It's a It's actually a bad thing the game's at home because New York fans are going to go there wanting to boo the team if the Chargers get out to a decent lead. And Jim Harbaugh's played well on the East Coast. He hasn't been one of those coaches that hasn't had his team ready to go in the West Coast. So, I would lay the five and a half. I also really like the two and a half. The Vikings right now lay the two, you know, lay two and a half in Ireland before it goes to three. Those are the two plays that I would make early. Uh, what do you make of the Chargers and the Giants, Pat?
Yeah, I mean generally I don't like betting against teams coming off um you know kind of a one-sided loss coming off a bad game going against a fat and happy team. Like I don't like betting on the fat and happy team there. But the condition for that um spot to to bet against a team coming off the bad loss is thinking the team that is coming off a bad loss is good enough to do something about it. And I don't think that's the case with the Giants here. I mean, like maybe the defense at some point gets it together and realizes they have Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns and Kavon Tibido and and Abdul Carter. Um, but like they've not played very well so far. Maybe Cam Scataboo is just so freaking good that he uplifts this entire offense, but I don't know about that. And this is a pretty good Chargers defense. Like I I like Scataboo a lot and think he's going to give this offense a big lift, but not that big a lift to fix the passing game. So yeah, I'm I'm kind of with you, Matt, but it is one of those things. There's no way I'm touching it at seven. I'm not even sure I'm touching it at six and a half. At six, I'm interested at six. Yeah, I'm with you. Uh the six and a half, seven is well, given the move on Tuesday, we might be looking at a number that's, you know, seven and a half or higher by the time we get to kickoff. you know, if the books just go, "All right, there's no resistance." What number, how high do we have to put this? How high of a number do we need to get to get people to actually go ahead and be a part of this? So, let me ask you this, Matt. What What do you think if the Giants announce today on Tuesday that they are starting Jackson Dart, do you think that moves things towards the Chargers?
Oh, it becomes eight and a half. You think so? Instantly? Yeah. Yeah. Instantly go say eight and a half or nine like it I mean Harbaugh's defense against a rookie no way that's a horrible matchup that's why I mean I I said it all preseason I was like if they decide to play Jackson Dart in the first half of their schedule like maybe you play him against New Orleans in week six I think it is they have the they have New Orleans like maybe that's the game you play him but you don't play him against the Chargers I mean no that's uh agree bad m bad matchup I know everyone wants to see Dart hard, but I know that the Giants have this gauntlet early in the season and I think so it's um you know they've already faced the Commanders and the Cowboys not so hard but then Chiefs Chargers oh it's actually the Saints next week but then after that it's Philly Denver Philly. So yeah, I mean maybe you play him against the Saints if you want to have him start a game and get some get some experience. Let him let him play and see what he looks like against the Saints but not against the Chiefs defense. Oh boy. Chargers defense, uh, no. Eagles, no. Like, you're No. This is not where you want to start a rookie. Yeah. I mean, if you wanna, you either do it in week five or you wait till after that second Philly game in week nine or whatever. See if you can get through the first half of the season with Russ. But then again, like Dable and maybe the one thing that could save Dable's job is if um play the rookie. Play the rookie and he shows promise. That's like the one thing. Very, very true.
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In closing, Pat, any final preview thoughts for week four? What are you looking What's the game you're looking forward to the most? Obviously, for selfish reasons, I'm excited about the Micah Parsons uh homecoming in in Dallas at But um yeah, it's a a pretty interesting slate. I I think the game that has the most intrigue um for me is maybe that Colts Rams game. Like just how real are the Colts? I think we're going to find out for sure. You have an early leaning on that one. I think it's Rams minus three at home. Yeah, I like the Rams, but I want three. I don't like three and a half. So I I I want to watch that number to see where it goes because I think I think that's a I I'm not there yet. Okay, with the Colts, I'm just not They're off to a red-hot start. Shane Steichen, coach of the year up to this point. Daniel Jones has been incredible. Just not there yet where I'm going to lay points or even get involved with a short number with them, you know, against a Rams team that Shawn McVay, how do you blow a 19-point lead against the Eagles? Like, like that's just inexcusable. And then the block kick return for a touchdown and just the most ridiculous bad beat of bad beats. If you were on the Rams taking the points at three and a half on the road against the Eagles, they should have won that football game. So, uh, it's an angry Rams team that I think the Colts are going up against. It might not be a good situation. I mean, I'm not going to bet it most likely, but for me, it's Ravens Chiefs because one of those two teams will be one and three coming out of that game, which is crazy. And if the Chargers win, like I think they're going to win, all of a sudden, look, we're only four weeks into the season, but the division might be done in the West. Like Chiefs might be looking at wild card to get into the postseason if they open up one and three.
Yeah. And the uh Ravens open up as what, like a two-point road favorite. Yeah. Uh that number currently is two and a half or three. Money, as we're talking, it's moving. It's now three. Caesars is at three. DraftKings is at three. South Point's at three. So, it's two and a half open, but the money is coming on on the Ravens. It's hard to uh argue against that because I don't know if the return of Xavier Worthy this week, if in fact he's back, like I don't think that fixes a Chiefs offense that looks pretty broken right now. But the Ravens defense though, also pretty broken right now. 111 points in three weeks. Like, what is going on with the Ravens? The run defense. Yikes. Not good at all. A back. A gap and B gap guys. What are we doing? Like like this is the Baltimore Ravens are getting pushed around at the point of attack. That's not Yeah, that's not normal for a Harbaugh coached team. He is Pat Fitzmorris. I am Matt Peralta. We are back next week. Every week we break down the look ahead lines, survivor pools, and early bets to make. Hope to see you back next week here on the betting bros YouTube channel.