Transcription
Welcome to week eight running back rankings where half your roster is on a bye. Yes, that includes the Arizona Cardinals, the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks. So, more important than ever, Hayden, we got to get the starters right. We got to get the flex spots right as well.
And thank goodness Kenneth Walker's on a bye-week so we don't have to sit here and debate his usage and all that type of stuff for these rankings.
Correct. That was in Stats versus Film. If you want to go back and watch that episode, it's one of the best of the season. Thank you to everyone that spends, I don't know, 35-minute average watch time on that every single Tuesday evening. Obviously, we'll have running back rankings today. Uh, Friday, wide receivers. Saturday, we also have quarterbacks and tight ends. And I don't mean to skip over the Thursday episode with the trades and evaluating yours. My buddy Farra. So if you still want to get your questions in, we have a couple slots left for video questions. Uh, that link is in the description down below. So go and do that and maybe we'll be featured on tomorrow's episode.
All right, let's kick things off with the running back one this week. That is Jonathan Taylor versus the Tennessee Titans. What else is there left to say?
It's obvious, but there are some crazy stats here I do want to hit on. First of all, the Colts are projected for the most points, up at 31 this week, one of the highest of the entire season. They're playing the Tennessee Titans. In his last two games against Tennessee, he has three touchdowns in each of them, including 101 yards and then 218 yards. So, he's been fantastic against them. And Jeffrey Simmons is dealing with an injury and if he doesn't play here, it is so. I mean, he's at 119 total yards in the pick 'em lobby. And if you're making me take a side right now, I would be taking the higher.
And like I mentioned in yesterday's episode, he already has more receiving yards this season than he has in any year, uh, since 2021. So, it's everywhere. And they're getting him involved in the receiving department early in games, too. It's not just, and we haven't seen any real negative game script here for a running back attached to this Colts offense. Yeah, I mean, T.J. Watt and Jeffrey Simmons, you know, one has been out, then the other, and all this type of stuff. Uh, if Simmons is out for this one, that is a massive, massive.
He's a beast. Along with the edge rushers that also missed last week too.
You know, they made the Patriots' rushing game look competent. Anyways.
Bijan Robinson is number two. Hayden, I would almost put these in their own tier because these are smash spots against terrible defenses. I mean, this is the biggest all-in move you could possibly have for Bijan Robinson in week eight.
Dolphins haven't stopped anybody. They're allowing the most rushing yards per game at 128. And then on top of that, just a little bonus for you guys. Seventh most receiving yards to running backs as well. Uh, the last three games they faced, Dameon Pierce, 26 and a half half PPR points. Kamani Vidal, got him 21. Rico Dowdle with that 31-point game. So those three superstar running backs acting like it. So Falcons are projected for a bunch of points and Tyler Allgeier, you could do worse. We'll get to him later on, but there's some splits with Tyler Allgeier. This, this is the matchup where perhaps both running backs can get help.
Love that one. They're at home. Terrible run defense and Michael Penix looks super questionable last week. You know, that probably is going to factor in here in early down play calling, uh, just to run Bijan Robinson over and over and as you said, the Falcons are projected for 26 points this week. With all that said, Christian McCaffrey, I think what, four of the seven weeks so far leads the NFL in expected fantasy points at the running back position. However, this time they are on the road against the Houston Texans and actually slight underdogs in this game.
Only projected for 20 points this week. The Texans defensive line is playing like superstars because they have two or three of them. The Texans have allowed the fewest receiving yards to the position as well. So, it's not just that they're dominant against the run. They're actually really good against defending running backs. They have also not faced Christian McCaffrey. So, you have to deem Christian McCaffrey's projection a lot because he's facing the Texans, which means he'll probably only score you guys 19 fantasy points this week. You, you'll have to live with that. You know, last week was by far and away his best rushing performance that so far has unlocked the ceiling of Christian McCaffrey in a way because the floor is reached every single week with that receiving work.
Uh, so it'll be interesting. I mean, another test on the underlying metrics that we saw with George Kittle on the field and actually the stuff between the guards was really the efficient workload for CMC last week.
Yeah. All right. Off of bye-week, Derrick Henry, your running back four. I absolutely love this. I've been advocating over the last two weeks for people to be trading for Derrick Henry. He's running back six in consensus rankings. So, you are slightly higher here.
I'm expecting Lamar Jackson to play. I've expected that the entire time. The team total is up at 28 and a quarter points and it's just a massive spot. And I looked at the split since he's become a Baltimore Raven. So, in when the Ravens have scored under 20 points or or at 20 points, and that's largely with the backups that he's been dealing with, he's only averaged 10.8. But when they score 21 or beyond, he averages over 20. So, this is a really good spot for him here. Uh, Bears have been a little bit better, um, the last couple weeks, but they've also faced the Saints last week, then the Commanders, and Daniels was playing through an injury there. The week before that, Ashton Gentry had his lone big game of the season at 34 and a half fantasy points. So, the Bears are healthier on defense and they are better than they were in the first month, but I don't think we can take a two-game sample and just all of a sudden call them like some legendary defense all of a sudden. So, I'm sticking with the huge team total and just touchdown, touchdown, touchdown here.
And for Derrick Henry, you know, he still has a run of 10 or more yards on 13.6% of attempts this year, which is actually seventh among 37 running backs with 50 or more carries. The issue, he's just not been on the field because of these negative game scripts, because of them losing. And if you factor in both Lamar Jackson and Ronnie Stanley on the field from Rich Rebar's worksheet, on 44 of those runs this year, he's averaging 6.0 yards per carry. So, this is a huge reset point for the Ravens as a whole. Uh, I still think they have a real legitimate shot of making the playoffs and it all, you know, can be hit on the head this week in terms of this is a turning point or you're one and six and it's absolutely over.
Yeah. I'm just pretending that the first month or so has not occurred.
Well, that's still six games. No, I mean, for, for fantasy purposes moving forward, like Lamar's probably be my quarterback one or two and Zay Flowers will be projected well, and same thing with Derrick.
Josh Jacobs, running back five, at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Uh, he was questionable very heading into last week and maybe saw a smaller snap share, but guess what? When they needed him, when they needed to convert short yardage, when they needed to score touchdowns, Josh Jacobs was once again in the game. Yeah, he's been a clear top four fantasy running back, uh, this season, scoring just a ridiculous amount of touchdowns. That's not due. That was the exact same that happened last year as well. So, this month he's the RB1 on RB5 usage. It's not the cleanest spot. The team total's down at just under 24 points. The Packers, a lot of the weeks are like at 27, 28. So, uh, that just shows you that the Steelers-Packers game is probably going to be pretty balanced, slow-paced. That's just kind of how both operations want to work. I don't think the Steelers defense is all that good and I haven't loved their tackling in general. So, nope. I, I don't think it's like the most difficult, uh, matchup in terms of like efficiency, but we know how Aaron Rodgers wants to play and that slow pace. Same thing with the Packers. So, this just could be like a lower volume game in general for everybody. But, I still like his odds of scoring a touchdown.
Yeah, Steelers defense last Thursday made the Bengals' rushing look competent. Yeah.
Good conversation here. James Cook, as running back six. You know, he opened the season as running back five, running back two, running back seven, running back 10, and then after kind of two down weeks for the entire offense, I feel like he's a bit of an afterthought. Now, he, he's not really involved in the passing game this season, which is very different than he was earlier on in his career. And again, one of those two difficult matchups was against the New England Patriots, who, you know, are top three rushing defense in the NFL. And then you have to question yourself, or if the Carolina Panthers, a tough matchup. I mean, lately, yes, they've shut down three rushing games over the last three weeks. But I, I do think it's a possibility that Sean McDermott, in the by-week, said, "Hey, Joe Brady, uh, let's get James Cook involved once again because in the opening four weeks when we were winning games, he was scoring touchdowns."
They're just huge favorites, top five in projected points here. And it's been a bad two weeks and then had the buy. Ly, I, I agree that he does seem like an afterthought, but just look at his like last 20 games and this is kind of where he belongs and I kind of buying into that. The Panthers are obviously much better this year than they were last year. I do think that their linebackers can kind of get got and this could be a spot where you could get James Cook out in the receiving game. So that's what I had in my notes even before you said that there. So I think this could be just give them one or two schemed up, uh, touches against them. Sometimes you'll see James Cook on these wheel routes and whatnot. I think this is a good spot to kind of test these backers here. So, sticking with the team total really high up and they have been super balanced and obviously that centers around James Cook.
Zero receptions over the last two games. Uh, that should change. That should definitely change. Speaking of receptions at the running back position, Devin Singletary is your running back seven. Uh, this is against the Atlanta Falcons on the road. We know this Dolphins team has really struggled, but Singletary has 91 yards or a touchdown in every game this season, which is incredibly consistent in a very inconsistent environment.
I'm just throwing out last week. We're not going to face Miles Garrett every week. We're not going to have that weather. The team total was at like under 16 points by the time the game had kicked off. It's not a great team total here. Um, it's like at 18 or 19 points, but that's against a defense that kind of shuts down the pass right now because they throw a lot of funky stuff. And I do wonder if teams are just going to continue to try to run the ball against them. And then for the Dolphins' perspective, that also means throwing the ball out to the flats quickly. So you don't have to like read things out, just get the ball out. So all that stuff is good news for Devin. So if you just look at the weeks one through six, he's averaging 18 and a half PPR points on 14 and a half expected points. Those are clear RB1 numbers. Uh, it was just the last week that felt disgusting, but that was extremely predictable. I think I ended up having like the running back 14 in rankings, which I never do. So, it was like projectably bad last week, and I think this week looks a lot cleaner.
This Falcons defense is so interesting to look at from an underlying metric standpoint because in a lot of areas, they're actually a positive, but then when you watch the games, teams can really beat up on them between the tackles. Uh, I don't know if the Dolphins have the blocking to beat up teams between the tackles. So, I mean, they did have what, a 40-something yard run with Devin Singletary last week between the tackles. I, I just don't know if that is like an even copy-paste thing that we should be looking at against a lesser defense, albeit again, one that the, uh, spreadsheets absolutely love in many categories.
And I don't get this fetish over these small tight ends that they keep bringing in. Of all the tight ends to replace Darren Waller, they go get Greg Dulcich. It's like, when are you gonna learn your lesson that maybe your ground game is bad because all of your, uh, tight ends weigh 236 pounds?
Right? They should also draft left guards in the second round of the NFL draft that actually move their feet when they block it.
Well, yeah, and he played right guard and right tackle and then they're, you can go left guard. It's, it's too much. It's not great. But again, CMC has an astronomical target share of about 27%. The running back right behind him,
Yeah. Albeit a slight drop off is Devin Singletary at 20%. So that always helps no matter what the environment is. Saquon Barkley is next at running back eight. I mean, if I told you that what the Philadelphia Eagles are five and two at this point, is that correct?
Four and two or five and two, I forget. Yeah, five and two. I would be stunned that Saquon Barkley here in week eight ranks as the running back eight on the week. Um, but again, from the worksheet, 30% of his runs have failed to gain yards this year. Yep.
The highest rate out of 37 running backs with 50 or more attempts. That is not one of the rates, Hayden, that you want to be among the highest in the NFL.
No. And I've been saying it like from week one, the offensive line is better in pass protection. The, the run blocking has been extremely mediocre. If you look at like yards before contact and all those numbers, they're like closer to 18th overall where last year they were easily the best rushing offense in the league. So Cam Jurgens, they don't know if he's going to play in this one. Left last week, that's their starting center. So they're going to be moving some interior guys back and forth. Landon Dickerson playing through injuries. They downgraded from Mike McGlinchey at right guard, uh, this offseason. I don't think the tackles been playing as well. So there's a lot of issues here. Now, with Saquon Barkley, you do get the Giants who have been the highest in rushing EPA allowed. They have smaller edge rushers who are dominating against the pass, but you can run on them. And then, uh, they're like all-pro defensive tackle has not had an all-pro caliber season. They were struggling at linebackers. So this is a spot where you could pick your battle and have an explosive, uh, run or two here. But he also has to get them because he's not going to catch that many passes. The goal line stuff goes to Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert and a lot of their actual points come on these 30-yard passing plays, so he's kind of squeezed out. So he has to have a good efficient game on the ground, I think he will, but he also pretty much has to do that.
Yeah, like you said, Giants allowing 30 or 31st, I should say, in yards per carry to running backs, 30th in explosive run rate allowed. At the same time, that Thursday night game when these two teams played just two games ago, you know, he had 31 yards in his opening two carries and I set out a tweet very early, way too early, that was like, "Oh, this game's over if Saquon is running for that clip," because, you know, he hadn't been able to hit that total in weeks. And then he didn't match that mark for the rest of the game after that. I mean, he hasn't reached a 100-yard total in a game so far this season. Uh, and the craziest part of it all, hey, again, you keep pointing out the offensive line. We do that in Stats versus Film every week.
I test-wise, I don't think Saquon looks like any different. It's not, I can see, oh, he's fallen off a cliff as an individual talent. It's just nowhere to go, period.
Yeah. Yep. So many of their runs are just for no yards. And then there's been a lot of holdings and stuff that have completely delayed drives as well, and that's just because they have backups on the interior. So, yeah, this is an aggressive ranking for where he's been this month, the RB23 and RB25 rank, uh, usage.
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Okay. Well, the next one is Javonte Williams, who you floated as a maybe running back five the rest of the way. Uh, speaking of the rest of the way, this might be his most difficult matchup. He's on the road at the Denver Broncos here.
Yeah, just a really tough spot. He's been the RB10 on RB3 usage this month, and that's when the offensive line was really injured, and now they get CeeDee Lamb back. So, the fact that Dak Prescott has elevated this team to being top three, top five in most offensive metrics despite playing with a lot of backups just shows you how good this offense is going to be down the stretch. Now, the Cowboys are really good. They're 12th best against the position. The team total lower, um, at 23 and a half, which is still above average, but they've been scoring like 30 points per game. The positive with this is both teams run at a pretty fast pace. They don't spend too much time, uh, in between plays. Lots of no huddles, a lot of quick screen passes and whatnot to keep the, uh, just the offense kind of in rhythm. So maybe there's more just plays than expected here, and the Cowboys defense being as bad as it is, I do think that's just going to make this game pretty close, uh, down the stretch. So, tough matchup, but I still just can't get away from the usage.
Okay, let's talk about Rachaad White. He's your running back 10. This is at the New Orleans Saints, uh, who got ran through last week by the Chicago Bears. Uh, Rachaad White, I believe, is their last game before the bye. Bucky Irving already ruled out here ahead of week eight, and maybe he returns in week 10. So, we do have Rachaad White as running back one for at least one more week.
Just a great spot in general. So, in his three starts, he's averaging 14.1 expected points. That's the equivalent of RB11 usage. He's been very efficient in general. We talked about in the short yardage, uh, success rate at 94%, that's leading the NFL with at least 11 carries. We talked about that on Stats versus Film. Um, and then in general, whenever the Bucs are missing their wide receivers, they don't really kind of replace it with wide receivers, the running backs and the tight ends get a big bump as well. Uh, so no Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin in this one. The team total, despite those injuries, is still really high at 25 and a half points. Uh, they get the Saints here, and New Orleans allowed five different running backs to reach at least 16 half PPR points this season. So, it's just a really good spot for Rachaad White. He's got to be the centerpiece of this and, uh, they've had some issues, uh, in the trenches in New Orleans and at linebacker, there's a couple plays where you just start taking screenshots and there's like not even anyone in the vicinity of these running backs. So, I think it's just a great spot to fire Rachaad White.
Here's a question for you. So, with how Rachaad White is playing right now, coming out of the by-week, will Bucky Irving be able to sustain his 73% snap share like he had in weeks one through three?
I know. I mean, it's kind of like a reverse of what's happening last year. I think Rachaad White's taken a step this year. He's running a little bit more physically, which was kind of the big knock on him, um, earlier on. He's very well-trusted. And if the shoulder injury, it's not, it was not even the, was it the initial thing was a foot, but then like, oh, the shoulder is what's actually been bugging him. This team is going to be playing in the playoffs. So why would you give them 75% snaps? You don't have to. I think it could be more of a 60-40, 50-50. Who, this could be the next Rico Dowdle situation. Who knows?
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All right, Cam Akers is next as running back 11, again at the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh, his low for yardage in his last five games is 90 yards. Wow. We all remember what happened a couple weeks ago in this game. Believe he had what? Three touchdowns in that. The big difference is Jalen Carter is playing, we think, in this game unless something happens, you know, before the first snap. Uh, and we've talked about it a lot that Jalen Carter is such a difference-maker and it's with your eyeballs and also when you look at the numbers, it's like almost a yard and a half better per carry and every other metric you can look at too.
Yeah. Why are these two teams playing each other? They just played each other. Like I, I never get that. Sometimes that happens. I, I was like week six. This just happened. But yeah, he had 110 total yards in that one. He's not going to score three touchdowns, uh, in this one. Giants only projected for 18. That's the third fewest points of the week. They're in Philadelphia with Jalen Carter and their best offensive lineman plays left tackle. So, they're not even going to see each other at all. So, I'm still clinging on to he's the RB9 on RB4 usage this month. I'm expecting things to look worse this week, but he's earned it. You know, he can have an off week and still finish as an RB2.
At the same time, his last three road games either has six catches or a receiving touchdown in those games. So, still an easy start as like that fringe running back one, running back two at this moment.
Yeah.
Next is DeAndre Swift. We have a clip posting on our socials right now that to us, DeAndre Swift is maybe playing his best football in two seasons. Uh, and at the same time, no one gets excited about it. But here he is at the Baltimore Ravens. And we talked about the offense resetting. What needs to equally reset, maybe even more so, is the defense of the Ravens because the last time they were on the field, they got boat-raced by the Houston Texans offense.
Yes, the Ravens are getting a lot healthier on defense. They're still missing their their best player up the middle and he's not going to play the entire season, but it's more about DeAndre Swift and the usage in general. So, he's been effective. I think credit to Ben Johnson, credit to the offensive line, but also credit to DeAndre Swift. These, he's hitting these cutback lanes on outside zone and he's RB8 in usage this month. So, I think they have a plan in place for. Remember, he's under contract next year as well. So, I don't think there's going to be like handing over the keys to Khalil Herbert. DeAndre Swift has earned it. He makes a couple plays out in space, uh, especially like on broken plays and screens and whatnot, too. So, even if this game is a lot of Baltimore Ravens touchdowns, DeAndre Swift's going to have chances in the receiving game as well. So, I traded for him in Dynasty and I'm, I'm trying to buy back some DeAndre Swift love just because doesn't seem like he's getting enough credit for where I think this offense is going, where Ben Johnson's going, and then DeAndre Swift can make some mental mistakes and still pay off if the explosiveness is still there.
Over the last two games, we know Theo Benedetto popped in at left tackle. Theo Benedetto of British Columbia. Um, ever since then, Hayden, DeAndre Swift has averaged 8.3 yards per rush on runs to the left side of the offensive line. However, this Ravens defense, they've only allowed 3.5 yards per carry on outside zone runs, which is eighth best in the league. And that's really where Swift has kind of made his mark. Many was doing a lot of stuff though between the tackles. So, maybe they have figured it out just across the offensive line, too. I'd be curious how they grade that because a lot of these runs are all the way to the right on outside zone. He cuts it back off the, the left tackle, but that's like, way going to the right. So, I'd be curious how, how they grade that. The point of attack always seems to be towards, uh, their right tackle, who's a total animal.
Next is Quinshon Judkins. This is your running back 13. This is at the New England Patriots. Again, I'll repeat that the New England Patriots arguably have a top three rushing defense. I mean, they've kept the Green Bay Packers to 94 yards rushing. I think the Detroit Lions to 82 yards rushing. Uh, we know Quinshon had an amazing 40-yard touchdown last week against the Miami Dolphins to go along with two other rushing scorers. Uh, but this is a big, big test for not just him, but this offensive line as well.
You can feel how physical the Patriots defense is up front and the Browns really, just their offensive line's really bad. So, it's, it's incredible that Quinshon Judkins is able to do what he's done this season. This is a very difficult test and I think we have to be pretty picky with how we're going to view Quinshon Judkins week to week because, yep, he will be an RB1 when game scripts are positive. Just look at last week, and then he will play 40% of the snaps if the game script flips and we're at the mercy of, you know, Dylan Gabriel, a bad offensive line, and everything else. So this one, the Patriots are supposed to win by seven. The Browns are projected for the the fewest amount of points in the league. Like you mentioned with New England, they're allowing only 3.2 yards per carry to running backs. They're fifth best against fantasy running backs in general. So this is by no means an easy task for Quinshon Judkins. And still this month, he's the RB13 and RB7 usage. Just a total animal out there. So 79 and a half total yards in the pick lobby. Uh, and if they do score touchdowns, a lot of them, you have to think are going to end up going to Quinshon.
The Browns are projected for the same amount of points as the Tennessee Titans, if you want to put that in perspective. Um.
We're good. And I, I don't want to zoom in too much, but like you said, when trailing in a negative game script, I do think like the Dylan Gabriel version of this offense will be slightly different than the Joe Flacco one, where Stefanski was still giving Quinshon like eight carries in fourth quarters when Joe Flacco was at quarterback. And now I think he's okay, more okay, I should say, when trailing of, "Hey, let's see what Dylan can do when we can throw the football 40, 50, we've seen it what 60 times nearly of dropbacks for Dylan Gabriel in a game." So that takes away again, five, six opportunities from Quinshon in blowouts and this one could kind of be a blowout potentially.
Next up is J.K. Dobbins. Uh, it's a J.K. Dobbins week. I mean, this is against the Dallas Cowboys, terrible at defending the run, and especially when they're in light boxes. I wonder if that's how Sean Payton, uh, can talk himself into running more is, "Okay, let's spread it out with all these role players and then run J.K. Dobbins up the middle against a defense that, uh, is a sieve in the run game."
Yeah, they can't stop anybody. They, they're not adding anybody yet. So, I think we should just keep attacking this one. Broncos, this one surprised me. I mean, I guess not really because it's the Cowboys, but they're fourth in team total this week at 27 points. Despite how bad the Broncos have been, they're still projected that much. That means the Dallas Cowboys are like a complete outlier. So, everyone knows that. I'm not saying anything new here. I'm expecting a bigger week for J.K. Dobbins, who also, you have to kind of pick your spots with because they're, they're not super run-committed. Uh, R.J. Harvey got a couple snaps, uh, and carries in the first quarter, but largely for the rest of the game, it was J.K. Dobbins. So, we'll get to R.J. Harvey in a second. I think you could do worse during bye weeks than him just because the team total is so high. But, um, the offense is still very focused around J.K. Dobbins when they do run.
Right? They just need to run the ball more.
More. You know, I agree. They, this isn't the 2024 version of this running game. Like J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey have done some really nice things this season. So, Sean Payton just needs to lean into that more often.
Next is Chase Brown, running back 15. This is against the New York Jets. Uh, I mentioned it versus the Steelers last week, like a 35-yard run, a 25-yard run, a 12-yard run. But this Jets run defense has actually come around versus, you know, us poking holes in the defense overall after Robert Saleh, Jeff Ulbrich, and those guys. Um, and at the same time, you know, the Bengals are not going to be trailing here. You would like to think they're favored by a significant figure in this game. And I don't know if we've been really able to say that, uh, since about week three. And if that's the case, maybe Chase Brown gets a bit more run here.
Just a way better spot. It was already a much better spot last week for him. And then I looked at the team total. It's at 25 and a half. You are right that the Jets defense is getting some guys back. Quincy Williams, he was activated off of injured reserve. That does not mean he's going to play here, but that is one thing to note, the linebacker for the Jets. Um, but they got an edge rusher back a couple weeks ago. So, it's just a really good spot because the team totals instead of being 15 and a half, it's 25 and a half. So, it's as simple as that. He goes from RB3 back to RB2. And I think there's chances he can have some explosives again if the offense is pretty, um, is spreading things out and they're at the goal line more and there's going to be more options for him to score a touchdown.
Kendre Miller, running back 16. The air raid system in the NFL just did not use their running back last week in trail mode, but he still played 65% of snaps. Uh, it just stinks when they totally abandon the run. Actually, it doesn't stink. It's just really fun to watch, uh, when the Chargers do that. I would rather them do that than, you know, get the football to Kamara. But all if I'm being honest.
Yeah, with all due respect, I, I totally agree. K.J. Osborn did not practice the last couple days. We'll see if he gets cleared on a short week here. This is Thursday Night Football. I think I'm going to be going to this one. Um, I will let you guys know if Joe Al and Trey Pipkins are, are going to play. They both have a chance to suit up. Um, I think that Joe Al is trying to play. That would be a pretty big deal getting at least a couple of their starters back. Uh, even if they are playing through injury. So, the Vikings defense, I don't have a good feel for them. I don't think they're going to spook Justin Herbert. He's just like too smart. Greg Roman's been around for for too long to get completely fooled by this defense. And they have not stopped the run at times. They've been lit up through the air at times. So, I do think the Chargers could be in a pretty good spot, uh, on a short week with the Minnesota Vikings traveling across the country. But no, it's on Haskins. It would just be, there's no competition for Kamani Vidal anymore.
I haven't prepared you for this and at the same time I haven't been doing it in recent weeks. Can we talk about the other pieces in Thursday Night Football as well? We'll obviously talk about Jordan Mason here in a moment, but how are we looking with the Ladd McConkey, QJ, Keenan Allen, and now Quentin Johnston dynamic versus this Viking secondary that just got torched by, uh, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Hurts?
They're all startable, definitely. I will probably be ranking Ladd McConkey the highest for the rest of the way. Um, this month, he's the wide receiver eight in usage. Keenan's wide receiver 10, Quentin Johnson, wide receiver 19, removing that one game that he didn't play. So, all three of them have hovered as top 24, uh, throughout. I think that added a wrinkle of Quentin Johnston does complicate things a little bit, but I think for the most part, it's going to be through the wide receivers here. So, I, I feel good about all of them. Um, none of them are going to be wide receiver ones for, for me, but I think a lot of them are end up in the teens, low 20s. Yeah. So, in a week with all the buys and stuff, play all those wide receivers and then, yeah, Johnston's going to be, I guess my only concern here is if they do take the lead, how much will Quentin Johnston play? Like, we haven't seen the Chargers necessarily in like super positive game script it feels lately. Uh, yeah. Could well, like, will D.J. Chark get those involvements over Johnston? I don't know. I don't know.
Yeah. And with these young tight ends, we've seen it with Fanon. Fanon will pop off then have two quiet games and pop off again. Like that's kind, that should be the expectation for rookie tight ends, especially like day three types that are.
Are you telling me the expectation shouldn't be 146 yards every game for Quentin Johnston?
Well, that's the low end. This thing's trending up. It can be like 185. Who knows?
He'll probably be like tight end 12.
Okay.
Tight end 10.
Breece Hall is next, running back 17, at the Cincinnati Bengals. Low-key bounce-back spot here for, uh, for Breece.
I mean, I guess, uh, they don't know who the quarterback's going to be. I also looked into it since '21 or since 2021 when Tyrod was like no longer with the Chargers and then when Justin Fields started his career, EPA per play, it's basically the same at zero per play, uh, for both of them. Completion percentage over expected is about the same. Tyrod gets the slight lean and then when they start games, Tyrod's team starts or adds 20 points and then same thing with Justin Fields at 20. So they're stylistically different, the end result just about the same. So I don't think we should make any kind of changes for Breece Hall. Maybe at the goal line, he's more likely to score a touchdown, which I like. Maybe Tyrod Taylor is going to throw more passes. So in general, I think I would rather have Tyrod, uh, instead of Justin Fields for Breece Hall. Uh, it's a fine enough spot. You get, you get the Bengals here. The team total is up around 20 points. So, it's been, it's better this week than it has been in previous weeks.
Reason I asked that is the Bengals have allowed eight top 15 rushers this season, uh, just at running back, and then they've been dreadful versus inside runs so far this season. What we're really hoping for is the Jets to lose the toss, the Bengals to defer, the Jets get the football, then they can't stop them on defense, and then they get the football again before they're down about 14 points without a safety on the field. So, we need like a couple drives here before the, uh, the Bengals with their wide receivers run up the score here.
This would be a good week. They promised all this Breece Hall receiving work. We haven't really seen that. I'm guessing they're going to just blame that on Justin Fields, but if it is Tyrod Taylor, like there's no excuses, especially if Garrett Wilson's not going to play. Also, Breece Hall's day-to-day with that ankle injury. Was able to finish the game. Didn't look that serious, but ankle injuries with time, you never know.
RB 20. All right. Jaylen Warren, running back 18 for you against the Green Bay Packers. Uh, Jaylen Warren, once again, based on what side of the bed Arthur Smith wakes up on, uh, led and dominated, I should say, in snap share of this Steelers defense. However, I am slightly nervous, I should say, of the Packers defense and their interior specifically overwhelming this Steelers offensive line.
Completely agree on all fronts. The Packers have only allowed two running backs to have more than 10 half PPR points this entire season. That's a pretty low threshold. They're third best against the position in general. Steelers are only projected for 20 and three-quarters points despite being at home here. Um, so just kind of figuring out exactly what the usage is going to be between the backs. I'm guessing that first week back from injury and the buy, that's the outlier. And then the other four games where he was the, the kind of a workhorse is more in line with what I should be expecting here. And in those four games, he was equivalent to like the RB7 in usage. Way more difficult matchup here. And I, I'm not banking that's going to hold on. So he's more of an RB2. I think that he's earned like pretty clear RB2 status until proven otherwise.
Love all of that. Not sure I love Alvin Kamara. Um, look, whenever we get a two-person backfield really siloed into one singular player and especially with someone who has the fantasy football history that Alvin Kamara does, you know, your initial reaction is to have some excitement for him the rest of the season. Unfortunately, this week it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Vea versus now a backup center after Erik McCoy is also lost for the season. Uh, Alvin Kamara also does not have more than 31 rushing yards in each of his last three games. And then he does have at least three receptions over the last four games, but two of those games are prior to that, uh, two and one receiving yards. So, yeah, I don't know. Uh, to me, the Saints offense will just continue to flow through the high variances of Spencer Rattler and Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
Very nervous about Vea. Debate. Posted a clip, um, last week where Vea, I mean, absolutely mauled the center and now we're talking about the backup center for the Saints. The guard play has been really bad. So, they're not going to be able to run the ball, but at the same time, the Bucs have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this year. So, that's where I'm kind of in a full PPR scam scenario. I do think this could be a week where Alvin Kamara gets more involved there. And if he does get down to the goal line before, I wouldn't, wouldn't be sure if it's going to be Kendre Miller. I would be pretty stunned if Devin Neal, from a sixth-round rookie, just comes in there and just starts stealing goal line work. It'd be more likely to be like Taysom Hill. So, don't love the spot, like, like you're saying. Um, but the team total is actually not like completely egregious right now. Um, and just the fact that the slower linebackers, uh, for the, the Buccaneers, this could be a spot where K.J. Wright is like, you know what, let's throw him a couple angle routes. Let's get him on some swing passes. Let's get a screen going and maybe kind of calm things down for Spencer Rattler because you're also dealing with like an inexperienced quarterback against Todd Bowles. Todd Bowles, if, if you're with, if you're K.J. Wright, why not have six plays on the call sheet that's like, "Alright, let's, it's third and 12. Let's just get Alvin Kamara out in space and see what happens."
I think a normal week he'd probably be closer to what, running back 25, 26 for you. And so, yeah, more of like a flex consideration, but again, how things are unfolding this week with all the by-weeks. Um.
Yeah.
He's running back two for you and we understand.
RB 30, 31, 32. It's bottom of the.
We're literally stopping the list today at running back 33 because there's no one else to talk about.
Okay. Good. Good.
Okay. Isiah Pacheco is next as running back 20. Uh, this is against the Washington Commanders. We've been on this where test-wise, uh, he looks better than he has, let's say, in over a year. Uh, the only thing is they get three running backs involved. But hey, in this game, they might score 30 plus points and that could lead us to some goodness here for Isiah.
I'm middle-grounding this ranking. He could either be RB 15 for me or down to like RB 25. I don't know if Kareem Hunt's going to play or not. He did not come back much after that ankle injury and it looked like some type of high ankle sprain, which who knows even what a high ankle sprain means anymore. That can be one week, six plus weeks. We don't even know anymore. So, I don't know if he's going to play or not. If he misses, Isiah Pacheco is like the most underrated fantasy asset there is. They're projected for the second most points as a team against the Commanders. The Chiefs have also been second in running back usage. They get these guys going at the goal line. They're scoring a.
million points. They'll throw it to their backs. I think Isaiah Pacheco behind this offensive line is actually capable of explosives. I could not say that last year behind that off that version of the offensive line and that version of Pacheco. So, we'll see, man. I I have a I'll have Bashard Smith in the flex range as well if Kareem Hunt uh doesn't suit up.
So, I think it's one of the most important injuries in fantasy this this week because I think both of these guys would be starters and I think that Isaiah Pacheco would be somebody I would be like circling in the pick and lobby DFS uh battle royale draft and then in your uh one on your one and six team with Isaiah Pacheco you might have a chance to to start picking up some steam again. No, I think that's a heck of a note because in the normal phase of play, Bashard Smith is basically doing Cadarius Tony stuff, right? He's not really doing true running back stuff. Now, he did get the fourth quarter carries and all that type of stuff, but >> um so it really could be a dominant workload for Isaiah BCO if Kareem Hunt is out. So, love that note.
Okay, Jordan Mason is the other part of that Thursday night football showdown. This is at the Los Angeles Chargers. Uh he has had four rushing touchdowns over the last four games. He's also handled at least 70% of the backfield touches in the last three weeks. We know this Chargers defense has gotten run over recently. Uh we also have Aaron Jones being active or reactivated, I should say, from IR. We're not exactly sure what his role is going to be for TNF. Uh Jordan Mason has to continue to dominate the workload though in order to like really pay off or score a touchdown because he's not catching passes, >> right?
Yeah. He just lost the receiving work to my boy Xavier Scott. I would be pretty surprised if Aaron Jones comes back and plays on a short week. They seem obsessed with practices and I would just run counter to that. Um it's a below average team total under 21 points. They're on the road. Like I said, their offensive line's like fairly healthy at this point. They're missing their center, but everyone else is is back and ready to go. He's been the RB22 and RB23 usage this month. Couple really weird games like blowout comeback mode where he's been phased out. So, actually, I think I think I like him a little bit more than this. Actually, put put Alvin Camra behind these two guys. Let's do that.
>> Okay. >> I think that makes more sense conversation. Yeah. >> Yeah. I mean, Bill Crosky Merritt put up 150 yards and two scores against this Chargers team and we know a lot of those were those outside runs. Devon Han and that offensive line went for 150 yards and two scores. Jonathan Taylor, you know, just a cool three touchdowns and 137 yards last week. Um, yeah, Jordan Mason's a fun runner, man. Anything you want to say about the Vikings wide receivers where they have two scorers in the top 12 overall right now basically?
>> Yeah, I mean those are really funky game scripts that they've been a part of just chasing a million points. Uh this game's expected to be closer. You just never know. Carson Wentz as he throws interceptions in the first quarter or the last quarter that will dictate how many pass attempts that they're going to have. So obviously you start Justin Jefferson as a top five 10 guy every single week especially during the byweeks and Jordan Addison will be in my top 24. Uh, and he's been playing a hell of a lot better than that. A little bit of a homecoming for Jordan Addison. Uh, last time he was in town, he was, you know, >> on on the five. >> He only spent what, like a season there, ain't that right? And he had like worse stats than he did at Pittsburgh and all that type of stuff.
>> Yeah. >> Hey, Kenny Picket. It's hard to, you know, it's hard to compete with Kenny Picket era and bad Pit. He only had Caleb Williams. >> And Cliff, that was when we were frustrated with Cliff, right? >> Well, yeah. They threw a million screens to to not Jordan Addison to everybody else on that team. Man, >> who was it to like Brendan Rice or someone? >> Yeah, it would have been Yeah, it was that era.
>> Okay, interesting. Okay, Roandre Stevenson is up next off of easily his best performance of the season uh against the Tennessee Titans and actually against the Miami Dolphins. He had a strong week as well, but in literally every other game, Hayden, >> yeah, >> he has not rushed for more than 38 yards.
>> No. >> And then >> it's so bad. And then now he gets the Cleveland Browns defense. So what's gonna happen here? >> I posted that EPA chart and the Colts are super effective. The Panthers are very effective on the ground. And the only team that's like certified an outlier on the bad side running the ball is the Patriots. Everywhere else like from 31 to three, there's no difference. And then you have the Patriots on one end, the Colts and the Panthers on the other end.
>> So >> they get no push. >> Yeah, they got nothing, you know, and it's p predictable. At least the offensive line is holding up in pass protection. They're not getting any push. It was a 90-10 split before garbage time this last week and I see no reason to change that. Um, so I'm kind of expecting that to be the case. It was a season high and expected points at 14.2. If if you kind of carry that, that's like RB12 usage. So it's a extremely tough spot. You know, you get the freaking Cleveland Browns, they're only allowing 3.5 yards per carry. This guy Miles Garrett that you have to deal with. So, I'm expecting a lot of touches, a lot of snaps, and we'll see about the effectiveness of them.
>> I will say Cleveland's defense is like slightly worse when on the road, and they are on the road here. So, maybe just a little bit of hope overall for this offense. And it's the Titans, too. The Titans have been bad at run blocking at the same time.
>> Okay, the Panthers running backs are next. I'm a little surprised that they're this low, Hayden. I mean, you have Rick Dattle as running back 23. Chuba Hubard is running back 24. I understand they're underdogs here, but this Buffalo defense has been miserable versus the run this season. I mean, they've allowed a league high 5.4 yards per carry to running backs. They've allowed 116 rushing yards per game to backfields, which is 30th in the league. They need Dayquin Jones back, but I believe he's still out with a calf injury. Uh, and this is also a backfield Hayden that rushed for 200 plus yards in back-to-back games against bad rushing defenses. So, I'm certainly not picking the Panthers to win this game. But, among like all the narratives you can paint, there is one for the Panthers to have an upset here if they just, you know, run for 200 plus yards. Again,
>> this is where I'm kind of conflicted with this matchup because I see the same thing. They're going to try to run the ball and they're going to try to keep it on pace and the Panthers have been very effective and it's exactly how you typically beat the Buffalo Bills. They can do that and at the same time they're only projected for 19 points and if Josh Allen has one of those games in the first half then they're just not going to be able to run the ball as they have been when they, you know, what what's their winning streak right now? Like they're winning all these games. Like if that changes then you're like okay I've cut the backfield in half and now they're chasing points. That that's where the low end outcome is. So maybe this is a little bit too low, but I can see this thing kind of swinging each direction and it could be a big Chuba game and the Rico is less efficient. Just you never know.
>> My only counter and I understand it if it was just one running back we're talking about they would rank higher, right? That's >> Oh yeah. Oh yeah. >> And now we're literally doing a series by series thing and Chuba got the start and then the next series and Rico so on and so forth. One note though, they did get a really good offense that was on fire and Dak Prescott did have one of those games and they still just were able to like again in a very similar matchup get over 200 rushing yards. So yeah, that is going to be the entire part of this is just to run the football.
>> Put Cam behind Rico. >> Oh, sorry Alvin. Promo code Alvin all the way. >> Wow, I forgot about promo code Alvin. Why did that end? I forget. I think 99% of this company has no idea about promo code Alpha >> and nor should they. >> Yeah, that's a good point on the Panthers. Like of all the teams, if they're losing by 10 points uh at halftime, they're going to still come out there and try to run the ball. Like that's just how >> And at the same time, like maybe the Bills rushing defense is better at this point. Like maybe Matt Milano does play and these types of things, but like Dak was on a freaking heater. They couldn't stop George Pickkins and yet they still rush for over 200 in that.
>> Uh, last question on this one. >> Rico D, Chuba Hubard, drive, drive, drive, drive, drive. >> Rico just looks better, man. And and they're not going to change it at all. Dave Kasa said they're not going to change it, but Rico looks like the better player and you can really see it when he's facing, you know, like diving linebacker tackles or DBs trying to tackle him on the edge and he just breaks those tackles and Chuba's going down on them.
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All right, Woody Marks dominated the backfield last week. I mean 61% of snaps and that doesn't even begin to tell a story of how many more touches that he had. I know one of our co-workers, I'm not sure if you get this Hayden, uh just in the Slack DMs, uh sometimes just get random, hey start sick questions, would you start this guy or this guy?
>> Oh yeah. Uh, and last week I had one of, hey, would you start Woody Marks or Nick Chubb? And then got an update this morning of, hey man, you want me my week because of that last second touchdown by Woody Mark. Let's go. Here we go.
>> Love it. This is to me a back where there's clearly defined roles and it's on us to figure out if the Texans are going to try to pass the ball or they're going to try to run the ball. Um, in this one it's supposed to be close. It makes it very difficult here. Uh, last week was a season high usage for Woody Marks when they were chasing points. So, I think that's feather in his cap coming off the post by rookie bump. A lot of that was in the fourth quarter. The Niners defense is I think it's well coached. You said they're very prepared. I agree with that. They seem to just give a right now. Uh, but they are missing their two best defensive players. So, I'm kind of breaking it towards Woody Marks in this one because Nico Collins in the concussion protocol, it's a shorter week for him to get back. Did not practice today. I'm assuming he's going to be out. If Nico Collins is out, they're probably going to run the ball a little bit more and they might throw the ball to Woody Marks a couple times extra just because their only guy that can get open right now um that they play is probably going to be out.
>> We'll move on because Bill Krosky Merritt is here as running back 26. uh he now owns this backfield, but they are projected for one of the lowest totals of the week and they're on the road in Kansas City who are projected for a ton of points at 29 and a half again versus the 17 that the commanders are. So despite Bill being clearly the best talent, he's not being utilized in the receiving game. And if that's the case, he basically has to luck back box into a short yardage touchdown here.
>> This is the Brian Robinson role. I think Jakori is better. He's got better chance of scoring a a long touchdown than um B- Rob ever did, but he is game script dependent and they are expected to lose by 12 and a half points. So, I agree that he's dominating touches when the game is close, but he's doesn't play like he's straight up like not even on the football field when they're in the second half. And that's what happened last week when Chris Rodriguez gets a goal line touch. Jeremy McNichols is playing a lot of snaps late. So, we'll see. They're projected for what at 17? That's got to be the lowest or sec Yeah, the third lowest.
>> I mean, they're a a quarter point better than the Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns. So, I think we should probably make some adjustments here.
>> Now, I did look at NFL Pro. The Commanders are first in the NFL on outside the tackle running back carries and fourth out of shotgun. And the Chiefs are 22nd and 17th at defending those. But, you know, I'm not going to hang my hat on the >> B this week. Chris Jones since that snap where he's been walking.
>> Yeah, >> no one's blocking him right now. >> He's been wrecking shop up front. That's for sure.
>> All right. In that same game as Bashard Smith, the uh fantasy football darling out there. Um like we keep saying, it's manufactured touches from the outside. They designed screens for him, jet sweeps, all that type of stuff. Uh, and look, if the team's going to score 30 points, maybe he, you know, can also get six fourth quarter carries when they're up by 14 points.
>> Yeah, there's a chance that he gets some of the Jerick McKinnon fun stuff in the red area. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly possible. Just all contingent on Kareem Hunt's going to play because he was getting the two-minute drill. He was getting some carries in the third quarter. They were up by so many points, it's like hard to tell. So, um, in full PPR, uh, I think you could do worse than having Bashard Smith out there, but this is just a sign of the by-week that Bashard Smith's even, you know, as high as this.
Moving on, Tyler Algier, we brought it up, fourth quarter hammer. No one likes to tackle him and they're projected for a ton of points against this Miami team. Uh, and this defense absolutely sucks. So, this is one of the peak algae ass games out there. In eight games with Bejon, when the Falcons have won by six or more points, Algier is averaging nine half PPPR points and the other 15 games, it's at 4.4. So, it's a pretty defined split. It makes sense. It's the fourth quarter stuff. When they're running the ball well, they stick with it. And Alier's obviously a big part of that. Uh Miami is allowing 128 rushing yards per game to running backs. That is terrible. That's the worst in the NFL. Um I like Alier more than Bashard Smith. Just thinking through this, I think there's like the splits are They're pretty evident. This is like a week where you can put algae into your flex.
>> I'm sure we'll have a bunch of those questions on the Sunday starts it show here on the channel. Okay, let's just close things out because we've already talked about a bunch of these back fields with like Nick Chub, Kongai, RJ Harvey, and then we have the two Titans running backs. Really, and I mean really bringing up the rear here. Any of these names you want to isolate?
>> Uh Manungi, just getting a temperature check from you. So the first game coming out of the buy it was like very clearly DeAndre Swift. This last week it was a little bit more split. They were in control of that game. Uh but Kyle Manungai even got a goal line carry in the first half of that game. It wasn't all DeAndre Swift. They were just so committed to both that they both end up getting home. So it was a season high in usage at 13.6. It's one game of that and five games of of nothingness. So like for flex kind of consideration, we have to decide was last week the more kind of telling like one two punch or was it the first five games where it was like one obviously DeAndre Swift is the one and then two was Kyle Manungai is it or is it more 1A 1B? So that's the thing I'm kind of paying attention to um because they've been super runheavy the last couple weeks and they've been effective doing it. So, I think there's a chance Kyle Manunga could be a little bit more 1B than secondary to DeAndre Swift, but it's a sample size of one.
>> Well, first of all, I think all of the rushing attack was pretty miserable the first four weeks of the season. >> Yeah. >> You know, bad. >> And then since the buy, it's very clear that they've just been more effective overall. Darno Wright's playing really good at right tackle and we already talked about Benadet at left tackle. I do think that the Manongai rushes just from going back and watching them were attacking slightly different areas than the DeAndre Such ones. And you know, he has played the first and third most snaps of the season in just these last two games since the bye-week. Yeah.
>> So, you know, a lot of our focus is on Luther Burton and a lot of our focus is on Coulson Loveland. But for a seventh round rookie with Roshan Johnson healthy and on the field, he's not on the field. It's Kamongai instead. and he's also to me picking up pass protection a lot better than he was uh in the preseason earlier on this year. So I'm not saying he's gonna totally take away things from DeAndre Swift. I am saying that hey Ben Johnson just came from a system that utilized two backs and I think we are going to see maybe more two back usage than we did in the opening parts of the season. Yeah, I think there's a chance he can average seven, eight, nine fantasy points the rest of the way, which doesn't sound like a lot, but wait till you guys ask us the questions about your flexes this week with all the teams on buy and the wide receiver scoring like wide receiver 40 in points averages seven, eight, nine fantasy points per game. So, Kyle Manungi versus like Matthew Golden, like that's not as absurd as as you would think. And I think that we should we need to think through these guys this week just because of buys.
>> Yeah. And like we talked about with the Broncos, again projected for 27 points, we have seen other games when they score a lot uh and run a ton of plays and are on neutral or positive game scripts that R.J. Harvey does get involved and he's had some nice plays in those moments. So it could be, >> you know, if you're really desperate, a RJ Harvey uh play this week.
>> All right. >> Yep. >> That's going to do it. Do you want to talk about the Titans backfield or you get >> I mean there it's 5050 split now. >> I'm just saying. >> Yeah, it's Titans got to get traded. >> We're going to get out of here. Thank you'all for tuning in again tomorrow. We have the trade show with Faras and we're back with more rankings on Friday and Saturday. So enjoy your evening, enjoy your night up the we'll talk to you all soon. See?