Transcription
Talk to me a little bit about gold and silver. Uh, a lot of a lot of uh the people in our audience uh are really thinking about hard assets because of that longer term, you know, debt and fiat trap that we're in. But this has been a tricky market. Uh, you know, over the we saw the big gains at the end of last year. we saw the big drop as you have you as you have on the chart there. What are you tracking for for gold and silver? But we'll start with gold.
Yeah. So, gold and silver both have pretty much the same chart, same analysis, and and it's the same with the miners. They really are the same trade. It's just one pocket of them moves faster than the other. So, there where we have this mixed signals signal with gold and silver, which is this long-term, this is the 150day moving average. it is sloping up which is telling us longterm the trend is still rising and so we've got this bullish underlying tide going up still the problem is the shortterm trends are down so we have this this mixed signal and when something gives a mixed signal I tend to not want to trade it I don't want to hold on to it because I mean it's really it's really a crapshoot like I don't want to toss a coin with my my life savings right I'd much rather wait for this thing to give a clear signal I don't care which way it goes just give a strong trend and we can take advantage of it. And so when we look at this, the long-term trend is up. Overall, this is seen as a potential giant bull flag pattern, which at this point, if gold was to get traction and start start to move up here, the next upside target for gold is going to be about $8,800 per ounce. So there's there's some pretty good upside potential from where it is. Now if the downward trend plays out based on Fibonacci sequence which Fibonacci is like a sequence that is through the whole universe and almost everything based on this drop and this bounce it is telling us that gold should go down to about 3600.
So the long-term trend is 88 short-term trend is is uh 3600. And what's really interesting about that is I think ideally I would like to see it go down to 3600 because it's a great opportunity. But this is also 36 is where that feeding frenzy that you just talked about Maggie took place. People started to pile in. It gold and silver went parabolic. Anybody who was not in precious metals through that blue window all had FOMO. They had to get in. Everybody's making money but them. They don't care how much it's rallied. they just like they're like they're just throwing themselves out there buying it, right? And the market is very efficient and it's great at catching people who are trading on emotions and chasing pricing. If you make really easy money, the market typically likes to take it away. And so based on that, it is showing that the market actually wants to come right back down to the breakout where the feeding frenzy, the euphoric move started. Meaning all the euphoric people are gonna have an uncomfortable roller coaster ride and the market is going to try to shake them out. And then if it doesn't shake them out, the market sometimes can go dormant for a very long period of time and it will wait them out. People just say, "I'm done with gold. I bought it high. It's not going anywhere. It's been three years. Forget it." And and so the market will is going to try and do a combination of those until it's rebalanced. and then boom, the next big rally starts when most people have given up on it and all of that stuff. So, those are the two scenarios. Silver is the same. Silver's got a, you know, $175 upside target, which I mean, I don't know if you want to still cover gold here, but that is my outlook for where gold is right now. Just leave it be. Let's wait for the new trend to start and then take action.
That that's super interesting. Um, and uh, I just heard Jeffrey Jeffrey Gunllock was talking very similarly, long-term bullish, short-term doesn't really want to touch it now because of some of the crossurrens that you're talking about. Um, but I I think for a lot of us, it is more of a long time or long-term horizon story. Uh, so that's going to be really interesting and and we'll continue to dig into that. Um, and if you are not if you are not if you're listening and you're not already part of our um, real asset network, uh, you should you should join. We'll put a link in the chat because these are the kinds of conversations we're having. But Chris, so important to to talk about time frame, right? That that the key to everything because it feels like it's and we and we get a lot of questions. I thought it was supposed to be a safe haven. What's going on? You know, why why am I not being protected? It reminds me of that old saying, shaking out the weak hands, right? I think that's what you're talking about. That sort of spec the sort of speculative newcomers who came in. um you know they're the ones sort of you know in the crosshairs right now.
For sure. Yeah.
Yeah. And and similar similar chart. Why don't you just throw the silver one up in case because I think we do have some people who are also thinking about that. Um, sort of similar similar setup, right?
So yeah. So silver has a similar setup. It's got a giant pattern. A good a good scenario of this is like you know we're looking at the 150day moving average moving up. Price is naturally above it. That is considered a bullish environment. If silver was to correct to the downside based on this drop in bounce, it is pointing to about $40, which is a a huge haircut, but it goes just like back in gold. It brings it right back to just before the feeding frenzy where emotional traders chased and drove the markets higher when they thought, you know, it was never coming back down. Uh and and so that's where silver wants to go. The upside obviously, as I pointed out, is way up here at 175. uh if it is to get some traction and there's there's some really big potential there and so I mean I try to play I wouldn't say play I I invest when when a cycle is starting a new like for precious metals it was 2019 that's when it started the new super cycle and we actually closed out uh myself silver at 113 we closed out at gold at about 5100 and we're letting it correct to do its thing I play when it comes to precious metals I play the super cycles and so what I'm waiting for and I'm hoping hoping for is for gold and silver to come down to their lower targets and then invest in physical bullion or however you want to take advantage of it because we're going up for another you know probably 10 20 years after that it's going to be huge and so that's kind of the scenario that I take so for example somebody who who is in silver and and hoping it's going to go back up right like for it to go up to this this this 170 level and this is the way I see it as a kind of an active investor If it was to rally up to this target, you know, you're going to make about 136% for the next measured move based on the super cycle target. If the market does correct and come down into this sweet spot from that level up here, you can see you can make quite a bit more. And so that is what these are like the the difference of where you can play real catch-up instead of falling in love with an asset and just waste I call it wasting time. If something has topped and it's trading sideways or going down, you're wasting time. That money should be in the equities market like we're long right now, making money. When the equities fall out of favor, eventually, you know, gold and silver will come into favor and then you can play these. So, we're constantly like leapfrogging from one asset class to the next. It's kind of the strategy that I call asset revesting. It's investing on whichever asset class is getting the majority of the money flow.
And so, I don't love any asset. I love them all, but I only like one at a time when it's in favor. And and you can, you know, if you navigate things the way I follow price, which is nice. I follow, not predict. It makes it fairly low stress, pretty darn exciting. It's just you have to let these patterns unfold, right? This silver may not and gold may not have a good opportunity for a year or two or three, who knows how long, but long term, I'm bullish. But as a shorter term investor, um, I'm waiting.
Well, importantly, we we've got a really good sense of price target when you're looking for an opportunity to buy or, you know, if you've got the patience to just sit with what you have.
For sure.
Um, you know, and and then add to that position if you start to get a real buying opportunity there. [music]