Transcription
[Music] Are we going back to the days when the entire market was controlled by maybe just Maruti at one point, and uh, you know, which is 80% plus one manufacturer, and before that, just Premier and Hindustan Motors? The headline number is 94% of the market is controlled by just six players. The brands which are successful here are making products from ground up, conceived specifically for the Indian market first and not the global markets. You could have a situation where, you know, these top six take things for granted and don't try so hard. I mean, you you have a weakened competition set. What has made the top six even stronger is just their scale, because with their scale they can afford to kind of absorb the cost of newer regulations and put it into new product development. Whereas the others, they just exit that segment.
It's Saturday morning and time for Deep Drive, our weekly podcast powered by Kotak Mahindra Prime. Now this week we have a pretty interesting topic, which is: Is the Indian car market becoming a monopoly? I'm Hormas Sorabji, and I'm Sergis Berto.
And yeah, absolutely, Hormas, the headline number is 94% of the market is controlled by just six players. Wow, that is sort of a monopoly. I mean, uh, I mean, I don't know, are we going back to the days when the entire market was controlled by maybe just Maruti at one point, and uh, you know, which is 80% plus one manufacturer, and before that, just Premier and Hindustan Motors? With the uh, yeah, exactly. So, uh, I mean, absolutely, I think that's quite a shocking number—94% by only six players. And, and Hormas, which means the other 10 brands, and if we're talking when we we we're talking brands, in fact, it is non-luxury and non, you know, supercar, etc.
Yeah, we're leaving out the Mercedes, Audi, all that. Exactly. They're anyway 2% of the of the market. 1.3% last year, right? So, this is the mainstream brands. So, there are 10 other mainstream brands who are all fighting over 6% of the markets. That's crazy. It it is crazy. Makes for a great topic as to, you know, what should these other brands do? Yeah. Today, it's all about the bottom 10, right? Right. I mean, but but before we go to that, Sergis, I think if you slice it a bit, the top four players are 80% of the Yes.
Absolutely. 80% from the top four players, which is Maruti—in fact, I have that here. Maruti first, Hyundai, and Mahindra and Mandra. Exactly. 80% of the market from just four, you know, Toyota, Kia come in maybe and bring that number up to like 94% then. But uh, yeah, it's it's interesting, and also what's very interesting almost is if you look at these top four, the bigger gains have been made by the Indian brands—the two Indian brands—they've actually rapidly increased their market share post-COVID. The Indian brands really kind of great. I mean, Tata Motors, we know I think post-facing a bit of a challenge right now, but you can't take away from the fact that, you know, they've really grown. I think they've almost doubled market share if I'm yeah, in fact, if if you look back from 20 uh from the financial year 2021 uh Tata Motors went from 8.2% to today 13.23.
Right. All right. Mahindra has gone from 5.8 to 12.82. They they mind really is the star of the thing. They really kind of knocked it out of the park. So Mahindra have doubled their market share. They have they have uh they have doubled their market share. So who's lost actually is interestingly Maruti—from 47 they've gone down to 40%. Uh Hyundai 2 from 17 to 13%. Uh so I mean I I guess there is something to to to see here that Indian cars are world-class now I guess, and then consumers are going to them that well we had this talk—I don't know if they are world-class frankly, I don't think they are because they don't sell in global markets at all—we had a big topic on this uh so I think you know I think uh they are suitable for Indian consumers, built yeah built for the market, but that relevance does not translate to anything uh global, and we know that we there's no uh Indian uh brand which is global right now, which is a shame given the fact that, you know, in an era of uh tariffs where China's on the mat, could we have uh, you know, let's say competed with China for other wide with China for other markets? Definitely not. I mean, there's not even a hint of a company becoming like a BYD in India, for example. Yes, not not in the immediate future, not in the immediate, but anyway, that's a separate I think we discussed that, but I think coming back to this, I think it's uh, you know, again we've discussed this before, it's really the structure of the market uh which really plays to the uh high-volume localized players over here, designing cars specifically for the Indian market and constantly investing in uh, you know, little model refreshments. So I think if you see the top six, they are the brands which have a kind of a pipeline, a constant kind of uh a flow of models consistently. It's not like, you know, they've developed a model once or they launch with a bang and then there's a product out for the next forgotten about. I think that really sums it up.
Absolutely. You're absolutely right, because you look at the brands—in fact, I I'll read out now the top uh rather the bottom 10 for for our viewers. There are brands who have done exactly this. They've launched cars in spurts, you know. So we have Honda, Volkswagen, Skoda, Renault, Nissan, MG, uh Citroen, Jeep, Force Motors, and Isuzu. Yeah. Right. uh and and all of them are 1.5% market share and then downwards, right? So yeah, I mean, if you look at I think I think Honda would be the the best of the of the rest of the rest, yeah, best of the rest about 1.5 market share, 1.5 market share the next. So Honda, to be honest, uh, you know, I think one thing I would give Honda is that they have a plan, unlike others who don't uh, you know, you know there's a next-gen City going to come, they keep, you know, that that you know there's a new Amaze going to come. They just launched a new one. You know, there'll be the next gen also coming. They've got the Elevate EV. So, they've they've got they've kind of, you know, let's say uh have the product life cycle kind of strategy in place for their existing product. The only thing is I think uh they've just not tailored their new products to the Indian market. Elevate, as we had said earlier, you know, it's doing well in Japan but not well in India. Whether it's the feature set, I mean something simple like even the CVT of the Elevate, you know, Honda's known for its CVT, but they've used a cheap CVT, you know, use a a push belt CVT, you know, belt CVT, unlike, you know, Creta, which is a chain CVT, which is so much better. So, small things like that, you know, and the NVH is very high on the Elevate. So I think uh people uh these small issues kind of irk people, whether it's a feature set and as we said earlier and we said it before, Elevate was actually conceived, you know, about started work on it about 7-8 years ago uh they had they were looking at the didn't happen. So in terms of the product planning, it was done so much earlier that today the market has completely moved on, and customer expectations have also completely moved on, and they've fallen short in that respect. So I think it's really having the uh how do I say the appetite to spend uh the appetite to be flexible uh to get over their kind of global hang-ups that everything has to be to be honest of a global standard or a template, a one-size-fits-all formula which never works in India. I think that's fundamentally Honda uh, you know, you can accuse Honda of following that, and I think that's the same with a lot of the other brands as well which are in this best of the rest uh kind of situation of 6% uh of the total car market.
Absolutely. And and in fact, I I think for Honda also strategically they didn't really double down on SUVs when they do have an SUV like like CRV was made here for a while. They kind of I felt gave up on that brand. Uh, you know, it came in really strong. I remember reading your your review of the CRV. It was the the first the first one that that came to India. Really good product. We saw consumers flock to it. But I feel they kind of let that die die die away. It they did let that die. And also I think what happened with the CRV was that, you know, the uh the last generation before they discontinued it, you know, in terms of uh it was a global product and, you know, you've had it with a a 9-speed auto, you know, on I think it was a diesel. Yes. So we had the diesel. Yeah. That's right. You know, which was just it's meant for European uh freeways and motorways, not meant for here. But you know, you can't with that volume you have to go with what is, you know, let's say uh the global product, and clearly I think that's the issue that, you know, a lot of them have a global template, a one-size-fits-all for global markets, and very often that doesn't translate to India, the CRV being a classic example, the last generation one which got discontinued, whereas the the brands which are successful here are making products from ground up, conceived specifically for the Indian market first and not the global markets, and the Indian players they have to do that because they don't have a global market, they have to do everything that the Indian consumer wants. So I think that is the fundamental difference. Exactly. And you know, so let's move on to the next brand here which in terms of let's say market share at least would be Skoda now, that's uh very interesting to see also because they were at 0.4% of the market share, they at 1.04 zero for so say 1%. And uh I I think they have along with Volkswagen obviously like you we've discussed this before, addressed the Indian consumer now with the India 2.0 plan uh right, it seems to have shown some numbers because Volkswagen is the the third highest in in in the bottom 10, and they are at 98 uh%. uh you know so I I think for for these two brands they've kind of awakened to this thing that okay we need to develop domestic products, you know, with a clear focus on the Indian consumer uh but what next is also now the next hurdle right because they so so I think what Volkswagen and you're right with India 2.0 or they did realize, but I think even they've had their lot of challenges. I think the biggest challenge has been overall cost—it's a very high-cost uh structure, high-cost organizations, whether it's development cost or whatever cost it's all counted in euros, millions of euros are developing it, even at Skoda developing it, but you know, don't forget Skoda still is not developing a lot of it, a lot of the propriety parts like the platforms, the engines are still controlled by Volkswagen, so any changes there obviously there's a big bill being sent by Volkswagen which makes uh, you know, let's say projects unviable to launch new products. Now I think again they're at a crossroads right now. We've discussed this before. They don't haven't really signed off any new products immediately beyond the 2.0 products. We know there'll be facelifts of the Kushaq and uh you know, Taigun. No real facelifts planned for the Virtus and Slavia. uh but uh I think obviously they're looking at a new platform right now which will be a combination of EV, C hybrid, and everything still in the works uh they're quite late to it, they're basically they're struggling with cost, I think that is the basic problem, and I think all these companies uh you know with such small market share they don't have the scale to really develop, let's say, you know, let's say localized products or products specifically for the Indian market—for them it's a bit of a chicken and egg for everyone, you know. Do you just take the plunge, invest heavily and hope you'll get the volume or you know uh or just uh hope that the customer will you know appreciate the product for what it is. So I think they are having a challenge over there. I think Kilak has given Skoda a big boost. Uh it's done fairly well, but I think again they've got their pricing a bit wrong. The lower variant is too cheap and the top-end variant is too expensive. I think they need to, you know, collapse, narrow the gap a bit, but I think the product's pretty well accepted. We've liked it. It did brilliantly in our tractor, by the way. So, you know, dynamically a great car. So I think uh yeah I mean I I think uh what I can see is with both Volkswagen and Skoda they want to make uh a go of it in the Indian market and you know they've dabbled with uh let's say partners uh they've been talking to a lot of people uh you know they may be talking to partners again, who knows, you know, you might have a Tata type thing now after talks failed, they might be having a you know, MG sic sorry, GSW MG sic see kind of a partnership coming back. So I think lots of options for them, but I think you know they're running out of time and they need to do something fast.
Right. So you know that that's Volkswagen and Skoda. So I I think I I like what you said, you know, to sum up it's like Honda seem to have like a product problem whereas Volkswagen and Skoda seem to have like a cost uh problem. Correct. Uh right. So I'll move on to the next in in in the list and coincidentally again it's partners Renault and Nissan, you know, at 8 and 6% market share of what's your what's your take on these two, what do they we we know we did the last podcast on Nissan, we know there's a product pipeline there, there is a product pipeline, but I think over there again, you know, these also what you have to understand these companies have their own issues back home, you know, Nissan especially uh, you know, and and we've said this earlier when you have big fires to put out in your key markets, India is going to become a less and less of a priority because I mean it's quite logical—who would want to throw money which is scarce uh in a market where you can't see any immediate return, you know, you're betting on a future which uh you know you're not sure is there for you, and even if you're part of that future will you be able to make money there, you know, this is quite challenging. So I think that's why we are seeing this kind of a monopolistic structure of uh only the people who can make money, they make a lot of money and they squeeze everyone else out, and that's what is happening in this market, and clearly again for Renault and Nissan I think uh, you know, of course now Renault is uh you know taken over the plant completely again, they're not giving up on India, but I think all of them are struggling and scratching their heads—what do we do next? They just don't have the right answer. Ideal thing would be to partner with someone, but there no partners there as well, they don't have the product lineup, they just don't have the products which are suitable for the Indian market. I mean, they had something like the Kwid uh which they did uh you know and that that did well for its time, but again they didn't invest in kind of refreshing it. So they don't keep investing in the product pipeline and you know the stop-start never really works, and again Nissan another case of you know stop and start, they've had a big product drought right now, again trying to reinvest into the market, and again I think a lot of them are looking at India as you know with the current geopolitical situation uh with you know the way things are going in China uh all the tariffs happening it's a very challenging period, a very uncertain time, but everyone somehow sees India as a market, you know, you can't ignore and it's a kind of a in a way a good bet to have this market uh as well or have your foot in the door or a toe in the market as well.
No, absolutely. You know, you're really right there, and especially for a brand like I would say um Renault uh because they are not in the US, they're not in China—large markets uh they were in Russia but with the war they pulled out uh obviously. So, right. India is the market they have to uh you know kind of here now I mean you know they they're not in any other large markets, so uh they've got to make it work uh you know and uh but again no proper investment in it, they've got they they've really not refreshed their products the way they should have, they've not invested in it, I mean even the Triber such a promising product, you know, they've not upgraded in terms of engines or whatever, they'd keep doing the facelifts but it's really not enough, you know, and it's clearly not enough to compete with the top six which are investing more and more and more and eating more of their market share. As I say, the top six are squeezing these guys more and more to the margins as we've seen from their increase in market share. Yeah, absolutely. In fact, the the bottom 10 used to account for about 11%, now it's 5% overall. Yeah. So, so they have also lost their together as a group. uh but what was you know you think uh with Renault let's say realizing that they aren't in any of these major car markets, do you think we'll see more investment coming towards India now they've already announced investment but Sergis my point is what what where's the product? I don't see a suitable product in India. Well, okay, everyone's getting into they're going to get a dust product which is great which is great because the brand I think also is still alive, that's a great market to be but there's no real there is a compact SUV in the form of the Kiger Kaiger, but there's still a gap between the Kiger and the thing, there's nothing uh you know let's say I I don't see them really coming in and refreshing their products. I mean, they are in good spaces uh you know they're not in the sedan market, okay, that's degrowing uh or or that's disappearing, but again I think uh you know they need to have a broader spread of products, I mean they are there in key segments or they will be, cluster segment is very key, the Creta segment which everyone wants. But again, we discussed with Nissan, I don't think they'll have the power trains to really be competitive. A 1 liter and a 1.3 L, you know, and and as I said, as we said with Nissan, they will really have to do something disruptive by way of product or by way of price. These are the two things that can really kind of, you know, disrupt the market and literally buy or grab market share uh from let's say well-established brands or companies like Hyundai with the Creta uh you know, and so on and so forth. You know, you've got Seltos, Grand Vitara, Higher, all all of them over there. So, I think it's going to be very tough, subcompact SUV segment, super super competitive again for them to uh make a uh you know, let's say mark over there, very very challenging. So, uh Triber again, they've had a great uh you know, let's say wide space there, but I don't think they they've taken maximum use of it.
Right. Absolutely. No. In fact, uh we we've discussed this in the past also, right? I mean the Triber, the turbo engine for example, that could be a nice logical extension of that, but uh yeah I mean that's that's Renault Nissan for you. What was the next on the list is MG Motor, and they are at 0.5% now. This is really surprising for me because you would think that it would be higher up this list uh they have innovated uh right, they've they've gotten like the Comet, you know, two-door electric car, they've got a good spread of EVs, EV, the Astor now uh they've had the Hector SUV, so prime space. So, they they they've done things correct, but I I think they they've made a mark with EVs. I think the Comet I think, you know, honestly didn't it it was a flop when it was launched. Now, it's picking up. We've driven it. We love the Comet. I think the more people drive it, they love it for what it is.
Correct. Uh so, there's no doubt about that. I think the Astor has been revolutionary. The battery as a service got everyone talking, and today the Astor is the bestselling EV. Exactly. Uh in the market, which is amazing. you know within just one year of uh launch it's come there, it's just flown past five years of Tata Motors dominance model-wise, you know, the Nexon EV, it's outselling the Nexon EV which was a top dog and clearly it shows that you know it's a technologically superior product to the uh uh Nexon you know and clearly it's about product is king. On the flip side uh where they've really lost out is on the ICE or the normal combustion cars, because a Hector really you know needs to up its came when the Hector came really launched brilliantly. It had the space, had everything, but now uh you know you've got more and more rivals coming and you know the Hector is again getting uh you know facing the heat of competition and I think one of the biggest challenges for the Hector is that it's got very poor fuel efficiency and that is coming home to bite and with that the Hector at one point had a pretty good resale value. In fact, when we did it had a pretty good resale value, now the resale value has also dropped. So I think the Hector which was the absolute backbone of the MG range that has been under huge pressure, a huge competition and is not firing the way it did. I mean, at one point it was almost up to 5,000 units a month. It's dropped dramatically now and now the Astor is uh you know taken that mantle, but for but the EV market is still very small. So you can't be relying on EVs to you know grab a bigger piece of the overall market.
Correct. EV market is about 2%. It should increase this year. I think it will. How much? We have to see. I was expecting it to double, but I don't know. I mean, I'm a little skeptical now looking at the way people are responding to new launches as a Sakreta EV which you know hasn't done well, lower. Even the Mahindra BEVs which launch with such a flurry, so many bookings, but I think you know stabilizing maybe around 34,000 a month which is uh you know not as much as the booking suggests, still a good number I think at that price point and for an EV right, but uh again coming back to that Astor alone cannot increase MG's market share and uh I think there have to be a lot more investment into a lot more product uh for the MG brand to grow and I think that'll happen you know because with JSW there are uh obviously they've got the appetite and the money to invest. So this is a brand that could grow, but GW has to focus on it and not flirt around with other Chinese car makers which they've been doing.
Right. Correct. I mean we we we we know that they've been talking to other brands and want to be a brand themselves. Exactly. That's right. Yeah. Get the technology from them. Uh white label so to say or let's say on a on just a uh and and just have a JW badging and just get the technology from somebody. And I think that's I think now the focus is on making this work as much as possible. Absolutely. It should be almost I mean they were at 5 years ago at 1.3% and then it's actually dropped uh every year to yeah 0.559. So certainly that that brand has potential. We we we know that. Uh I'm going to move to two other brands who are again close to each other here. Uh Citroen, Hormas, they are at 0.15. Now here you know is the funny thing because Citroen have actually done a sort of products for India, but I guess the wrong products for India, right? I mean right, I don't the wrong products, they've done the right products but the product planning hasn't been good, yeah, wrong spec, yeah yeah exactly so we we we've got the C5 Aircross, we've got the
EC3, we've got electric versions of that. We had the C5 airross, we have the airross, uh, the C3 airross—lovely products. I mean, fundamentally, I think I think that as we said before, the Stellantis story is a sad story of actually a very good strategy coming in with a very low cost, not over-investing in India, but the execution has just ruined it.
I think, you know, it's been a combination of terrible leadership, uh, you know, across, uh, not understanding what the consumer wants. I think even, uh, headquarters being a little pigheaded and not, uh, investing enough in the right way, uh, you know. So I think, uh, it's really sad, actually. I don't see them getting out of this mess, and, uh, you know, if anything, you know, looking at Stellantis' problems worldwide, also, Tavaris is gone; you know, they they they've lost that edge they had on profitability, which really kind of defined Stellantis. Margins were just phenomenal, absolutely amongst the best in the industry in the mass market, but they're struggling now everywhere, uh, you know. And everyone's being hit by, uh, the whole, uh, US tariffs, which is going to be a massive, massive disruptor. So people exposed, uh, to the US market or exporting cars to the US market are going to be really badly hit. And that again, as I said earlier, people are not going to be focusing too much on a market where there is no, uh, return—immediate return. So either they'll be on slow burn, or, you know, sometimes it might just be best to just exit, you know, and call it quits because, uh, I think, you know, you've got other markets you need to be focusing on.
And to be honest, today, GM and Ford, after leaving India, uh, you know, they don't feel they are any of the worst for it. Though Ford wants to come back, uh, which we know again, you know, it's in a very measured way; they're not dying to come back, uh, they just feel, you know, it's more strategic than anything else, right, uh, no. And you know, Situ. And I I think for them they were stuck, you know, 20 years ago in their thinking, in the sense that I remember talking to them; they would always say, you know, "No, suggest you're comparing a 3.9 m car to a 3.4 m car and 800 cc to 1.2," and I'm like, "Who buys cars like that anymore?" Right? I mean, today people are cross-shopping to a showroom wanting to buy a hatchback and it'll come out in an SUV.
Exactly. I mean, in the old days, yeah, I know we we would buy like, "Oh, which altitude do you buy, the 800 cc or the 1,000 cc," and all, but nobody talks that anymore. It's it's all about the features in there, how how it makes you feel, uh, you know, how special it is. And I think unfortunately, none of those cars did that, you know. They didn't make you feel special from the inside. It it it was just, uh, fundamentally well-engineered car. You and I I think you love the the the turbo engine, right? I mean, I think the 1.2 turbo is the best 1.2 turbo, period. You've driven it. It's a third-gen version which they've localized over here.
Absolutely brilliant.
Yeah, true. But yeah, I I I guess just failed on product, uh, spec and, you know, the next in in in in the chart, and again another coincidence is their partners or underlantis group, uh, Jeep, Hermas; they are at 0.09, 0.09. Again, Jeep, we've discussed this before, um, you know. I mean, I think what we can say right now, why are they at such a low, low kind of percentage of negligible market share? Is again lack of the right products, uh, you know, clumsy decisions, getting out of petrol—only diesel for the Jeep right now, uh, it's only it's a diesel-only brand right now, you know, which really is, uh, quite a risk in this market, uh, they really haven't got anything as a counter to, uh, the Creta. The Compass was a good vehicle at its time. There's no real replacement for it. It's unable to fight against, uh, competition. Uh, it's carrying again the cost of, uh, what I call a global product, which is all the 4x4 hardware and stuff which Indian consumers don't want.
Same story. It is the same story being repeated for all these brands which are in the in the in that 6%, you know, the bottom 10. It's the same story, you know: global products, uh, which really are not suited for the Indian market. They're good products—don't get me wrong. I think some of them really drive well—but not suited in terms of, uh, you know, price and features and size and space, these sort of factors, you know. So, uh, that really is where they fall. I mean, Compass—very capable. It had reliability issues, but you know, once you drive it, really, there's I don't think there's any 4x4 in that size that's as, uh, competent. But I mean, how can it even compete with a Creta, for example, which what people compare it with, you know?
Exactly. Because like you said, the size and space.
Exactly. Yeah. So, no, and you know, one was you said clumsy decisions, and you know, that's been I think my biggest criticism of, uh, Jeep because beyond the ones you mentioned, there's also been the fact that when the Avenger project was in its conception, India was given a choice to be part of that project, and they said, uh, "No, go ahead and make it over 4 meters," because they were on that thing: "Do we do it sub-4m or over? If India's in, we do it below," and they're like, "No, it's going to be too expensive," and look at what the Sonet price is. I mean, people are buying—absolutely right—is a classic case of, you know, if you want to be in the Indian market, you have to commit to it, you have to believe in it, you have to take a little bit of hit on the price and cost, which these people are unwilling to do, you know. Even I mean the other one was the SDLA medium, the Stella M, you know, the the their flexible platform, uh, and that we were expecting to come, you know, would be a combination of hybrid, it would be a combination of EV, uh, ICE, everything; it would have been this one, you know, platform which could have bound multiple, uh, Jeep products, but they canned it because, uh, it was too expensive. Right? Standard thing is: it's too expensive; it's too expensive for India; it's too expensive. That's what they always come back and say, "Well, guys, figure out a cost of that, make it cheap, otherwise don't bother with India," well enough to to command that money. Exactly, you know, "Oh, it's too costly; we we can't do that." Everything is falling because of that. Even I think folks are going to the MQV0837; I feel even that's now dropped because it is too expensive, right? You know, but what what's what's the latest? Do you have any latest news on, uh, you know, we we did the story some time ago where Situin platform would be used to say build a Jeep. I think that plan should still be on.
Okay. Uh, really, we don't know, uh, to be honest, with the current, uh, you know, let's say flux in Stellantis, uh, after Tavaris's departure, obviously they're also, and don't forget, uh, with, you know, let's say the Trump administration and the turmoil caused with, uh, in the auto sector—25%, uh, you know, tariffs or duty on imports—or it's called total chaos, I think, you know. Right now, I don't think anyone can look beyond tomorrow as far as planning goes because every day is changing, uh, you know: one day the tariffs are there, one day there's a pause on it, you know, they'll be on components, it won't be on this, it'll be on that. So you know, you never know, uh, what what there's going to be a tariff on, you know. So it could be a only a tariff on pink cars or what—who knows, you know.
Yeah, that's something that I think no one is going to be able to see. So I think in this very uncertain and volatile environment, I think there is generally going to be a pause on big heavy investment, uh, into India unless you're a brand which really is not too affected by what's happening globally, like to be honest, our Indian brands are not, or even Suzuki is not that example, you know. So Suzuki—not present in the US—so, uh, I think that's what I I think, you know. So it these are very, very, very kind of uncertain times.
True. And you know what was the last two on our list, uh, Force Motors and then Isuzu, uh, what's your reading of that? Do you think even prying—actually honestly I think Force Motors, honestly, uh, you know, they are fundamentally a very, very good at engineering; they got a very solid engineering base, but I don't think they understand the consumer or have the nuances of, you know, being in selling to private buyers, fundamentally, you know. The cars are too crude, too functional, uh, you know, they just lack the finesse, uh, you know, to appeal to private car buyers, and I think that's really their problem. So I think Force, you know, we've all been excited with the Gurkha; it's actually quite iconic, but if you get into it, it's quite a box, and very—even the new-gen one—a rudimentary box; you can't even compare it to anything that Mahindra has, you know. So I think, uh, they just don't compare. And Isuzu, I think honestly, u I I think they've actually been smart; they really don't want to grow beyond, or they so far haven't wanted to grow beyond what they're doing. I think they're doing good numbers; they're a company that's stuck their clot to suit their length, uh, you know. So I think, uh, uh, you know, they're below the radar. Products are good; products are being appreciated. So I think that's one company which kind of came into India small to remain small, and I think that's what they are looking at right now. Obviously, everyone wants to grow, but I don't think they have these big ambitions coming with billions of dollars like a lot of the Europeans did, and then, you know, kind of made a mess of it. So I think that's how it is.
Yeah, absolutely. You're right. And and as I was saying, you know, they're not really trying. Uh, fair enough. Maybe they they don't want to, but, uh, you know, now that we've run through the list of, uh, the bottom 10, there are two other questions I want to ask you. One is: do you think this is good or bad? I mean, it's certainly bad for the customer, right? But it's certainly bad for the customer. I mean, it's definitely bad for the customer. You've done this because there's limited choice, right? Uh, you're really not necessarily getting the best quality in a lot of things. Don't forget a lot of the bestselling cars are actually even poor-quality cars. I mean, let's be honest, uh, both Tata and Mahindra don't have a reputation for the best quality, but it's basically, you know, okay, Indian customers: "Fine, we we we'll we lump this if we get a great price or some features and and stuff like that." So you know, I think we ourselves have a lot to blame; we don't kind of, you know, push or go to the brands that give you that depth of engineering, that solid engineering, you know, and, uh, you know, and and and are not dazzled by features. I mean, for example, you know, I I love what both Volkswagen and Skoda give, you know. I mean, I would I'd love that, and especially their sedans. Exactly, both the Virtus and Slavia are fantastic sedans, you know, and Volkswagen today's is the bestselling sedan today, but it's such a small segment, you know, it's very difficult, difficult for others to get in over there. So I think it's, you know, it's becoming monopolistic. Uh, I was quite shocked to see, you know, it's moved up by so much—just a handful of brands. Uh, but you know, having said that, uh, you've got to hand it to the top six; they've done a great job. Toyota piggybacking on Maruti—that's how they've got into the top six. They've got an absolute lock on things like the Fortuner and Innova Crysta. So again, they don't bother with that; people are just buying that because there's no choice over there. So I think what's happened is also the, uh, structure of the market is what has made or, uh, you know, kind of made the whole market very monopolistic because, uh, as we said, uh, earlier, you know, the the strong are getting stronger, and the weak are getting weaker.
No, absolutely. And if you look at the top six also, you know, the the scary bit about having a a monopoly there is you've got Maruti and Toyota who are technically partners. You know, they are partners. You've got Kia and Hyundai who are also in in a way partners. So, you could have a you could have a situation where, you know, these top six take things for granted and don't try so hard. I mean, you you have a weakened competition set.
Well, I think, you know, the good thing is that our market is still so cutthroat that, you know, they're still fighting for each other. I mean, look at a company like Tata Motors right now; they're still in the top six but pretty much struggling right now, you know, and, uh, the only one really flying is Mahindra—Mahindra—but Maruti also struggling, you know, everyone is struggling; it's a tough market to be in, you know, cause this market which we call, you know, a very small garden with the high fences; it makes it very difficult for others to get into, and, uh, it's not even a small garden; it's pretty big. I I just think it's our policies, you know, our policies are so restrictive, uh, be it on, uh, emission regulations, all kinds of regulations which just come make it impossible, uh, you know, to compete in unless you have the scale.
Absolutely. So that's why what has made the top six even stronger is just their scale because with their scale they can afford to kind of absorb the cost of newer regulations and put it into new product development. Whereas the others, they just exit that segment or whatever and then narrow their choice to just a few limited models where, you know, the they have enough scale then to justify the cost of meeting the new regulation.
So, is it is it safe then to say that whatever growth we see in the bottom 10 isn't going to be, uh, you know, meteorite, uh, blazing up the charts? It's going to be very slow, slow burn, steady, uh, gains, right? Either that or you might even see it becoming lesser and lesser. I wouldn't be surprised as, uh, 94 might become 96. Okay. Uh, at some time, you know, because, uh, uh, well, you've got—maybe I'm hopeful that doesn't happen—you've got, uh, how do I say, good stories like the Kilaak coming in. You know, last month's Kod did 7,000 vehicles. That's a good number. So hopefully that will keep grabbing market share. But we know what people are launching and, uh, and it's not that the top six are sitting still either. They are also launching more and more products, you know. So for the bottom 10 to catch up with them, uh, it's going to be hard. I don't see this changing a lot. I thought EVs, uh, you know, could be change the, uh, game a bit, but, uh, I think, you know, we're going to be stuck with traditional vehicles for a while, and, uh, yeah, you might see some changes within the top six in terms of market share, but there's not one that I see is going to really, you know, kind of make a jump into, uh, into big double into double digits here. So I think that's going to take a while. So it was pretty grim times for, you know, small players, which brings me to another question: should newcomers, brands like VinFast who have already committed or who are waiting, Chinese brands who are waiting to enter, should they think twice before entering or and stay out, or should they enter, and what's what's your—I think, you know, I think the cost of entry for EV players is, uh, in a way I would say not as much as let's say someone coming with ICE because, uh, you know, I think, uh, I think the EV story has just started; a lot of people are on the same kind of footing in terms of localization, in terms of product, in terms of also the, uh, you know, let's say EV buyers are quite brand-agnostic, willing to try completely new brands, uh, so I think, uh, you know, it's easier for the EV brands to come in, but I don't think, uh, they're going to run away with big numbers because a the EV market itself is small, uh, so you know, they'll be fighting within that space, but clearly I think it's as I said, it's easier for the EV guys to come in than let's a an ICE, uh, let's say, you know, player to come in because for someone coming in with combustion engines to be competitive, you have to localize the engine. Now, who's going to in 2025 invest in putting up an engine plant?
Correct. You know, probably outsource it or whatever. So, the future clearly is looking in that direction of EV. So, it's much easier for EV players to come in. You know, the talk of Leap Motor coming in, which is part of Stellantis. I think that's been put on hold. Uh, talk of Tesla coming in, uh, you know, so that we've discussed as well. So, I think, uh, the newer players will all fundamentally be, uh, EV players largely. I don't see any, uh, you know, non-pure EV player coming in at this stage. It's too difficult a market to crack, and frankly, they missed the bus. It doesn't make sense, uh, to do that. So I think right now this is how it is. It's it is a situation where it's quite, uh, you know, let's say not rosy, but the top six have a good grip on the market, and, uh, it's up to the, uh, bottom 10—that which control just 6% of the market—to fight back and at least, you know, let's say, uh, give a kind of a more even spread, uh, between brands, which I think is good for the customer.
Thanks, Serg. So that's it from us at, uh, Deep Drive. Do tune in every Saturday at 11 a.m. and, uh, to make sure you don't miss any of our episodes, click on the subscribe button so you remain notified. And if you're driving and, uh, you have, uh, time on your hands, you can hear us on Spotify or Apple Music, where our podcasts are also there. So then see you again same time next week. [Music]