Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's Finding Value. Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together, generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. So, let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
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All right, Echo X, silver volatility ahead. Not exactly what I wanted to wake up to on a Sunday, but this matters. Asian guy, which is this artificial intelligence, and this is what's being shared out in Twitterland. Um, guy breaks down why JP Morgan is warning of a potential silver selloff for January 8th to the January 14th, even as China locks up supply. Is this downside or buy the fear opportunity? Watch for key levels, timing, and why paper moves don't change physical reality. Well, yeah, they may come out and try to paper slam the price. And you know what, guys? This is all just noise. It's noise. Uh, we've got that 45-year cup and handle pattern. Go back to the long-term time frame. Supply is tight. We've got the big 45-year cup and handle. If they try to hit it in the short term, I view it as a buying opportunity. Now, are you actually going to have any physical silver to buy? I don't know. I think things are going to start to dry up. And that's what we want to watch. We want to watch the bullion dealers. We want to watch uh what industry does if they panic, if they start going directly to the mines, which I think some companies already are. And that's something to watch as we progress through this uh bull market. We want to see what the physical pricing is in China uh in other areas of the world. And we can watch and look at the paper price here in America on the COMEX. So, you know, I I I put a lot of money into into silver, physical silver. I did it because I saw the pattern that was being created, the 45-year cup and handle. Uh, and nothing has broken. Nothing has changed. So, whatever people share on Twitter, I don't think it matters. Uh, it's all just kind of the effects in the news being driven by the big bull market. And again, the driver in my opinion is interest rates and the unwillingness for people and countries to buy each other's bonds. And it's also going to what's going to impact is a weaker dollar. Uh, a a declining dollar is going to have a very large impact.
Another thing just to to hit on it, this is the gold to silver ratio. Um, this is another reason why I purchased so much uh silver. Uh, this whole area up here where it says buy silver. Basically, in about 2018, we got into this big buy zone. Uh, if you look at the ratio, this was the top to purchase silver in. So, some people say, "Well, it's a lost opportunity if you were buying it 2018 and whatnot." No, it's not. No, it's not. Uh, it's not a lost opportunity. It's not. I I hate when people say that. It It It's like people are saying because it's not going up immediately or it's not going up fast that that's a lost opportunity. And it's like no, the opportunity is where the value is in the market and where there is the largest disconnect between risk and reward bar none. That is all that matters. Your opportunity is identifying risk and reward and the relationship between those two things. And a ratio chart will tell you with some logical you know conclusion that you can draw from that something is cheap in relationship to another asset period. So when we when we look at this, the ratio chart gets you in the ballpark and then you got to dive into the actual silver price and the price chart there in dollars. But this ratio, if you look, obviously we have broken out of this bearish formation pattern. It's bullish for silver but bearish for gold. We dropped, we came into this flag pattern. It's inverted and we've broken out downward out of the flag pattern. Now, are we going to get a bounce? What does this look like? I don't know what the short-term market movements are, guys. I couldn't tell you exactly when this was going to break out. I don't know those types of things. Uh, what I do is I look at charts. Uh, I see entries, I see opportunities, I see value, you kind of mix those all up together in this soup of investing, we'll call it. And then if the value is good, the uh technicals are good, and then you see a a cheap ratio chart, you know, maybe perhaps turning, uh, those are all positive signs. So, are we going to get a bounce here? Are we going to go straight lower? It's difficult to say, guys. I don't know. But one of the things that I was looking at, at least for silver, uh, this here is your falling wedge. And this is a this is usually a best time to purchase 2018, 2019, 2020, and then this was another good time here because it it paused before a big launch. So, yeah, everything looks uh pretty solid here uh for silver. And yeah, who knows what it does up here. We'll see.
Coming down. It says that COMEX paper silver prices, are they equal fake news? US banks are panicking. That's why they're releasing perhaps this information up here of why they think there's going to be a potential silver selloff because they need to convince the most amount of people to not buy silver. That's what they want. So, it says um they're rigging the the the silver price to save the banks. The charts say silver is 71, but actual prices on the street are much higher. Physical silver in Japan 130, physical silver in Abu Dhabi 115, China is 110, and then COMEX paper is 71. Says, how is this possible? Because if silver charts go to 130, the true value, several banks go insolvent overnight from margin called short positions. They're using paper contracts to force the silver price down and protect them from liquidation. The charts are a lie according to that. Uh, does this matter? I don't think it I don't think any of this matters, guys. I mean, it's news, but if you own the physical, I don't care what the paper price says. Sure, 71. Okay. If do these if these banks go, you know, bankrupt, I don't care. Whatever. It is what it is. It's decisions that they're going to have to uh that they've made and that they're going to have to live by if they go bankrupt. And it was a bad decision to short silver. So, I just look at this stuff and I'm I'm sharing it here because it's news. Uh, they call physical silver dead money, but central banks are hoarding gold at record rates. Do what they do, not what they tell you what to do. There is a high demand for precious metals. China put a ban on silver exports in 2026. And this is his guess. Uh, that's Elliot wave of what silver's going to do. Is that correct? It could be. It looks like it could be. Uh, so if we get a pull back to maybe $64, could be a good buying opportunity if the silver if you can even get the silver and if the premiums are okay to buy it and that move lower actually moves the price of silver lower. It may not move the price of silver lower. The premiums may just get bigger. That's kind of the the game that is being played going forward with all of this.
Um, this is one about Venezuela. A lot of people are talking about Venezuela. My lord. Says, "As we explained in this piece, the initial market reaction will be slightly bearish. At least that's their opinion. The political transition will take at minimum six months and any disruptions would lengthen that." Venezuela will then need a new energy minister, a PDVSA, will need better legal framework to deal with the impending joint venture deals. All of this takes time. After that's all said and done, oil majors will need to analyze the fields, conduct CAPEX assessments to figure out which projects make sense and at what oil price. Management teams will have to present these findings to the board, and they will have to decide how much capital they will invest. This is at least one to one and a half years out. After this is all said and done, oil majors will invest, restart, and push oil production higher. You don't just go in, turn on a faucet, and oil will flow. That's not how this works. And that's in response to all the the people there. Uh, this is Canadian euro. So it's important to understand currency exchange rates because as currencies strengthen, money flows into the stronger currency and it flows away from the weaker currency. So the CAD is trying to start an uptrend versus the euro. So if so it could do, you know, four 5% but we're starting to break higher with the Canadian dollar versus the euro. Uh, what does that mean? Why is this important? Well, when the Canadian dollar outperforms, that generally means that their stock market is going to do well. Money is flowing into those assets. And uh currency exchange rates are a way that you can see uh money flows before they actually occur if you're seeing technical chart setups and patterns. So right now this is a bullish formation that is forming for Canadian dollar versus the euro, which is good for commodities. Money's flowing into Canada.
Here's nickel. It says nickel futures market is about to blow up again. And this is nickel here and it looks like it's trying to break out of the falling wedge. So nickel is looking pretty pretty solid for 2026. Um, there's a lot of there a lot of base metals that look pretty solid. I like copper. Copper looks really good, too. Oil. So, Peter Lucas research. Um, I like sharing people who I think have good insights, uh, good logical conclusions. Says oil at 20-year lows in real terms, yet people call for 30 to 50 glut bare scenarios. Downside maybe 5 to 10%, upside 2 to 3x to the upper range. That's asymmetric risk-reward and I like that trade, is what he's saying. And you know, everyone is so bullish or or I mean bearish with this Venezuelan news and we're already below the cost curve. Uh, if you listen to earnings calls uh with a lot of the offshore guys, they're not going out there, you know, ripping it all up in terms of exploration wells and all sorts of stuff. So CAPEX has pulled back. Spending's pulled back because of the the low price of oil. But everyone is so bearish. They think that these big reserves, which I I'm just going to state, Venezuela, those reserves have never been one, verified, and two, I don't know if you guys understand this, but what they're getting out of it, the heavy oil, is like peanut butter viscosity. They have to mix in things to get it to flow in a pipe. Even Napa, I think is what they mix in with it. So, I don't think that oil is going to be increasing, you know, I don't think they're going to increase the flow of that oil anytime soon. I don't. But, you know, people are going to have opinions. It's the way it is. And people are going to share them whether they are are good opinions or bad opinions on Twitter. They'll they'll let them fly, I guess. And uh I remain a bull in oil. Uh, as weird as that is, even if the price goes down on Monday or Tuesday, uh, if that is the case, it doesn't matter because CAPEX needs to be spent in large quantities to reverse the uh I should say not maybe to reverse, but to increase production supply to meet demand. So if it doesn't, then the price will go up.
I've got the next launchpad and this is one of my charts here. We've got the three hump consolidation uh for the financial assets outperformance area that ended in 2020 here. We came up, hit resistance, came back down and I think we are uh breaking higher. Uh, I call this a launch pad. This is going to be a launch pad where emerging markets launch much much higher. Uh, usually when emerging markets launch higher, we see weakness in the dollar. And that's we're going to go over some currency exchange rates to show you how this all is interconnected. So yeah, emerging markets look fantastic. Uh, this here says the signs are all around us for the commodity bull market. Okay, what what do I mean by this? So this is SLX Vanex Steel. Still. I mean, you wouldn't think that this would be going up in a recession. So, if this is going up, does that mean we're not in a recession? Are we coming out of one? This is a falling wedge into a double bottom breakout. That's number one for wave one. Wave two is this move here to wave two and then the slingshot higher. Uh, we're in an up move. We are playing this move uh with some of the companies on the website. We've positioned back here a few months ago or some months ago in some of the companies. Some of them are still down for good entries. Uh, but this here, this pattern, uh, this pattern here was the top of the last bull market. And this whole thing here is a recession, a bottoming pattern, and then a break higher. Clear as day.
Here's another one. This is COPX, the copper miners. We have a falling wedge, double bottom, bottom one in 2016, bottom two in 2020, break higher, wave one, wave two, and then the slingshot higher. And we're in the slingshot move higher or that move higher. So it's SLX is the same as COPX. What does this mean? Does this mean we're in a recession? No. How can we be in a recession with copper uh copper equities and and and steel equities going up? Here's another one. This is uranium. Uh, it's the same pattern. So we have a falling wedge into 20 2016 bottom one. Bottom two occurred in 2020 and then we broke out wave 1, wave two, and then we are ripping higher. And then what I put on here for uranium, we have bearish news because everyone's bearish over here. The herd is bearish. And then 2020 and onwards as the price moves up, we get more and more bullish news being released uh to everyone. So, I think we're in the in the thick of a big move. 2026 could be an incredible year for all these different commodities. And I just shared these three. There's a whole bunch of other stuff that's also out there. Uh, and then here's further evidence. Uh, currency exchange rates between different commodity currencies and the United States dollar. Uh, the last commodity bull market, we saw a big squeeze. This squeeze here from uh 88 into 2002, that was a falling wedge, a three hump consolidation falling wedge of the Canadian dollar versus US dollar. We broke out in 2002-3 and then this huge move in the currency exchange rate was glorious moves in the commodities bull market. Absolute stellar moves. We saw 50-60 hunbaggers. Yes, 100 times your money from this bottom to the top in some of the companies. Not all of them, but some of them. Look what we've got the setup going on here. One, two, three hump consolidation into the corner. This fractal that I grabbed here, I put it and just matched it to this corner. This is what I think could potentially be coming in the currency exchange rate for Canadian dollar versus USD. And this is a quote new commodities bull market. We're going to see things get lit here. This is the time that you want to identify those opportunities, get them in the portfolio and sit because if this produced I'll say five bag to 100 bag in a lot of the companies, this is going to probably be as much or more because it's it's we're in a little bit different part of the cycle. We're in a more powerful cycle this one than the one back here. and it deals with interest rates uh and being in a consolidation versus not being in a consolidation over here.
Here's other ones with further evidence. This is the South African rand versus the dollar breaking out. Big volume stepping in. That's a falling wedge breaking higher. This is the Brazilian realale versus US dollar doing a double bottom. It's going to break higher. Uh, back here you can see 2000, 2004, 5, 6, that was a big move higher. Some of the companies in Brazil uh moved 50, 60, 70x from bottom to top. Coming in here last commodities bull market. This is the Australian dollar versus US dollar downtrend breakout in that 2001 to 2008 and 2011 period. We had another consolidation. Now there is another thing that you could say here. You could say this is the downtrend. This is the bottom. This whole area is a bottoming pattern and that this could break higher and go all the way back up. If that's the case, then commodities and investments in some of the Australian companies could be some of the best investments for the rest of my life and we could see ridiculous returns. Ridiculous. So, yeah, that looks insane as well. Here's another one. Uh, it says at resistance, patience required to get through the next resistance line before another run. And it looks good to me. So JX, this is the S&P TSX Venture Composite. This is uh showing alignment with that Canadian dollar outperforming the euro and outperforming the United States dollar. We have a big falling wedge. This was a the bull market was this big guy here in the beginning. Big bull market consolidation started uh when the dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar. This is a low inflation recovery phase of real estate back here. We had a nice bottom in 2020 breakout coming back doing a double bottom or maybe a shoulder head shoulder and then we're up against the neckline ready to break higher. When we break higher, we're going to get another impulse move higher and then it's going to be sailing after that for a long time. We'll be in a in a big uptrend. So, this also matches all of the currency exchange rates that we just looked at. That's why I'm showing all this.
Coming down. Commodities versus the S&P 500. Double bottom in play. Huge chart fractal pattern as well. And this is commodities versus the S&P. And what this is is a double bottom squeezing into a corner. Going to put in another double bottom here. Going to come back up. How do I know it's going to come back up? Well, I just showed you SLX, COPX, uh, and the uranium miners. Those are all commodities. They're all moving higher already. I also showed you currency exchange rates. They're all ready to break to the upside. So you're telling me that this wouldn't break. Now, that's the problem with looking at only one chart. You need to combine everything. So what you want to do, my opinion, is you want to reach deep into the charts of everything that's being traded in the market. Look at a whole bunch of different things and then come to a conclusion based off of how people are positioning in the market. That's the most reliable way to do it. You don't you never have to read another piece of news ever again because the news doesn't matter. The news can impact short-term market movements, but it's not going to stop this move going up in my opinion. There's too many aligning factors that we're looking at here. And this one here, um, that's more about Venezuela. I'll skip it. There's a lot of reading there. Uh, but basically what he's saying is we're not we're not just going to walk in there and increase flow rates at, you know, like that. It's it's not going to just go in go in there and flow rates going to come out. It's going to take time. Uh, and then high heat, another one that I like. Uh, he says, "Never confuse oil reserves with oil production. A lesson we're about to learn. Big production doesn't mean big reserves like the United States. Big reserves don't mean big production like Venezuela. Nothing is what it seems in our brave new world. And a lot of bearish comments coming out on Twitter. I'm trying to share more of a balanced approach to this. Still think there's an oil glut? Are you four years old? If you think Venezuela is about drugs, I've got a bridge there."
And that's all I've got for today, guys. I think that's where we took off last time. So, give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you'd like. Special is the coupon code if you'd like to sign up. And that's all I've got for today. So, we'll catch you next time, guys. See you.