Transcription
We are in the process of having a breakdown of a major support on the market. What is happening is really not pretty. We are going to take stock of the altcoins, of the market in its entirety, of the support of the last few weeks which is giving way. We will look at what the objectives and scenarios could be and we will talk a little more about liquidity within the market. Once again, just before we start, I remind you that you can access our algorithms for free. In the 2nd quarter, the SPT algorithms made almost +20R and in the 3rd quarter, the algorithms made almost +14R, which are really very good results. Again, past performance is not indicative of future performance. To access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. All useful links concerning my content. You just need to register on Bitgate via our partner link. Right now, Bitgate is offering you 10% cashback on your deposit via our link. So, roughly, you make a deposit of 1000 dollars, you make a trade, you get 100 dollars in trading bonus, which is really excellent. You just have to click on "join" here to access it. You create your account. Once your account is created, then you just have to click right here "algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin". It's a short 10-minute video that explains how to get the algorithms for free, how to get my mentorship for free. It's a complete training that is offered to you and also how to get access to the VIP Alcoin on Discord. This is where I will share the best opportunities on Alts to prepare well for the next Altcoin bull run.
So to come here on the Total Market Cap, so this is the market in its entirety. It includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, absolutely everything. We can see that we are breaking the weekly support of the last five weeks which has been worked on since around September. There was a retest. End of September, we tested it all through October, and so now in November, we are attacking this support downwards. Will it really break? First, we will have to see the weekly close since we have already made wicks here that have been swallowed up. Now, if we really break the support, unfortunately, it would confirm a bearish breaker which would put an end to this bullish momentum. And we will look at the long-term momentum. That is to say, when we look at the monthly chart and observe the long-term momentum, it is still bullish. Okay? We must clearly distinguish between different timeframes. On weekly, we don't have the same momentum as on monthly. For example, on daily, we don't have the same momentum as on weekly, and so on and so forth. See it a bit like Russian dolls, and roughly, you have to do the overall analysis. When we look at the monthly chart, the momentum is still bullish. That is to say, to invalidate the bullish momentum of the crypto market, we would have to break this low. So you can already see we are very far from it since the last higher low of this momentum, we agree that it is here. Now, on weekly, if we break the support here, we have the question of the last low which will mark an inversion in the weekly momentum. So, what could happen? What could happen is, as we do with every correction, to retrace the previous bullish movement. For example, here, I take this entire rise, I draw a Fibonacci. We can see that we are entering the discount zone, so between 0.5 and 0.75, and then we go back up. I do exactly the same thing here. I take my Fibonacci from the previous bullish leg. We enter the discount zone, we close the last fair value gaps. For example, here, there was this fair value gap. We closed it and it allowed us to go back up. We did exactly the same thing here. We had a last fair value gap right there. We filled it and we went back up. Here, if we do the same thing, I take a FIB, I take my low, my high. We can see that the discount zone is between 0.5 and 0.75. And we can see all the fair value gaps we left on this bullish leg. There was this one we are working on. If we break the support and this fair value gap breaks, we risk going to look for the next zones. We had this fair value gap here that was maintained, which allowed us to go higher. So this one has already been retested. The fair value gap zone that has not been retested is here. This would mean that theoretically, if we break the support and form the bearish breaker, this is the total market cap, so it's on the market as a whole, and we lose this fair value gap zone, we have a next objective which is first to go and look for this previous low, price reading, that is to say, 2960 billion in capitalization. And theoretically, it would even be to close this FVG again because we do that with every correction. We close the last fair value gaps we left behind us, and so this would be between 2700 billion and, sorry, between 2700 billion and 2850 billion in capitalization. Again, this does not mean that what happened will happen again, but there are still probabilities if these bearish signals are confirmed that we will close these fair value gaps. And when we look at the monthly chart, it would look something like this. Poof! And then, if the momentum continues, we could make a future peak. So there would be big opportunities on this retracement. Again, this is if the momentum repeats itself. For now, we are speculating on the fact that it will repeat because it has repeated and the bullish momentum is maintained. Okay? So these would be the objectives. However, the reading is different. Again, the Total Market Cap takes into account Bitcoin and Ethereum which have performed well. It also includes assets like BNB, Solana. When we take Ods, which is another market index that removes the top 10, we will focus more on the small caps, on the altcoins. And so, for example, we see that the reading is different. Unfortunately, there has been a divergence with Bitcoin. That is to say, Bitcoin, I'm showing it to you at the top, we can see that Bitcoin has reached a new peak. However, the altcoin market has not managed to make a new peak. This indicates a huge divergence. And so, well, Bitcoin's objective is not to break this low because it is its last monthly low, like this one and like this one. So it's to try to make a higher low. The equivalent zone that I showed you earlier on the total market cap on Bitcoin is here. It's roughly between 85,000 and 92,000 dollars. So for Bitcoin, it would be to make a higher low to then try to make a new ATH in the coming months. However, on the altcoin side, since we haven't managed to make new peaks, there are high probabilities of retesting the long-term support. Here, in fact, it's about saying that if Bitcoin comes and tests the fair value gap zone between 85,000 and 92,000 dollars, there are high probabilities that the altcoin market will retrace the entire wick and that we will retest the long-term support. Again, supports are to be bought, they are interesting zones to position oneself. Uh, and so this could indicate that we are going to retrace this wick, potentially on Ods, which is the altcoin index. So this is similar on Bitcoin, the support is breaking. For now, we cannot yet confirm the break of the support, we are slightly below it. If the support starts to break, the next zone of interest on Bitcoin would be below 98,200 dollars and then why not fill our last fair value gap around 85,000 to 92,000 dollars, which creates bearish pressure, obviously, on altcoins and this would bring us back to our support on altcoins, and I will even indicate interesting zones for you. I often take what is called the discount zone of this wick. Often the market retests these large wicks here. And so here, the discount zone of this wick is almost exactly on the support. It would be between 200 billion in valuation and 179 billion. And so, we can see that for now on this index, we had a triangle that is being broken downwards. Now, this can be positive if we re-enter this triangle. If, for example, here, we just took out the stops, and we have a re-entry, we could ultimately make a fakeout. However, if there is no re-entry, if we have, for example, a pullback, unfortunately, it would be more indicative of a bearish continuation. and to go and work on the future support zone which is the low of August 2024, also the low of April 2025, but also the lows of the crash we had on October 10th. And so it would be to go and work on this support. Here, we can look at Total 3, having removed stablecoins, and we can see that it's a bit the same thing unfortunately, since here we are breaking the last support. We seem to want to confirm the break of the support this week and therefore form the bearish breaker. And so here, for example, it would be to go and look for the long-term trendlines that have been drawn. So to go and work on this trendline here, to retest the wick of the October 10th crash. So for now, the momentum is not exceptional. I also remind you that we still have this liquidity problem, meaning that there is no more stablecoin printing, or even we are burning stablecoins, which means that money is currently leaving the market. Here, we have the altcoin momentum against Bitcoin which continues to decrease slightly. This means that Bitcoin is still increasing its dominance. I remind you that an increasing Bitcoin dominance when the market is falling, so when the total market cap is falling and we have an increasing BTC dominance, it means that money is leaving the market but that Bitcoin is the strongest asset in this decline. So generally, this translates to a more significant drop in Ethereum and a more significant drop in altcoins. Here, we can see that Ethereum dominance is decreasing. And if I look at Altcoin dominance, we can see that it is also decreasing here. So altcoins continue to lose against the market. Bitcoin continues to gain but in a falling market. So this means that Bitcoin is strengthening in this decline, and so this is not very positive. And so on Bitcoin dominance, the objective could be to go and look for the premium zone of this wick, that is to say, to go back between approximately here, poof, 62% to 62.8% dominance. So still a little bit of a decline in the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin. I remind you again that for now, we remain in a bear market for altcoins against Bitcoin. There are no signs of a bottom yet. The zones we are currently approaching are very interesting. They are the long-term supports that have marked the bottoms each time during our previous bear cycles. So we are closer to the bottom than to the top, obviously, but it will still take time until a bottom can be established. I remind you that the Fed will end its QT on December 1st, 2025. This does not mean that we will have QE immediately after. It just means that finally the liquidity contraction will end, and in the coming months, it could boost liquidity again. I am preparing a video for you on liquidity cycles so that we can truly understand the impact of liquidity on the market and when it really moves the market. Because, for example, imagine tomorrow the economy is not doing well and the Fed launches a QE, the altcoin market will not explain it on day D. There are really months and months before liquidity flows into the altcoin market, and I will make a video about it. I hope this video was enjoyable for you. If so, don't hesitate to smash the thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, you have plenty of free content. Don't hesitate. See you very soon. Have a good day.